
@article{jackman_why_2019,
	title = {Why Does the American National Election Study Overestimate Voter Turnout?},
	volume = {27},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/why-does-the-american-national-election-study-overestimate-voter-turnout/78AAF29C00F368C735507F0D5160AE20},
	doi = {10.1017/pan.2018.36},
	abstract = {Surveys are a key tool for understanding political behavior, but they are subject to biases that render their estimates about the frequency of socially desirable behaviors inaccurate. For decades the American National Election Study ({ANES}) has overestimated voter turnout, though the causes of this persistent bias are poorly understood. The face-to-face component of the 2012 {ANES} produced a turnout estimate at least 13 points higher than the benchmark voting-eligible population turnout rate. We consider three explanations for this overestimate in the survey: nonresponse bias, over-reporting and the possibility that the {ANES} constitutes an inadvertent mobilization treatment. Analysis of turnout data supplied by voter file vendors allows the three phenomena to be measured for the first time in a single survey. We find that over-reporting is the largest contributor, responsible for six percentage points of the turnout overestimate, while nonresponse bias and mobilization account for an additional 4 and 3 percentage points,  respectively.},
	pages = {193--207},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Jackman, Simon and Spahn, Bradley},
	urldate = {2023-05-09},
	date = {2019-04},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
	keywords = {measurement error, survey design, treatment effects},
}

@article{goldsmith-pinkham_sea-level_2023,
	title = {Sea-Level Rise Exposure and Municipal Bond Yields},
	issn = {0893-9454},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhad041},
	doi = {10.1093/rfs/hhad041},
	abstract = {Municipal bond markets began pricing sea-level rise ({SLR}) exposure risk in 2013, coinciding with upward revisions to worst-case {SLR} projections and accompanying uncertainty around these projections. The effect is larger for long-maturity bonds and not solely driven by near-term flood risk. We use a structural model of credit risk to quantify the implied economic impact and distinguish between the effects of underlying asset values and of uncertainty. The {SLR} exposure premium exhibits a trend different from house prices and is unaffected by house price controls. Together, our results highlight the importance of climate uncertainty in driving municipal bond prices.},
	pages = {hhad041},
	journaltitle = {The Review of Financial Studies},
	shortjournal = {The Review of Financial Studies},
	author = {Goldsmith-Pinkham, Paul and Gustafson, Matthew T and Lewis, Ryan C and Schwert, Michael},
	urldate = {2023-05-09},
	date = {2023-05-08},
}

@article{eshima_keyword-assisted_nodate,
	title = {Keyword-Assisted Topic Models},
	volume = {n/a},
	issn = {1540-5907},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajps.12779},
	doi = {10.1111/ajps.12779},
	abstract = {In recent years, fully automated content analysis based on probabilistic topic models has become popular among social scientists because of their scalability. However, researchers find that these models often fail to measure specific concepts of substantive interest by inadvertently creating multiple topics with similar content and combining distinct themes into a single topic. In this article, we empirically demonstrate that providing a small number of keywords can substantially enhance the measurement performance of topic models. An important advantage of the proposed keyword-assisted topic model ({keyATM}) is that the specification of keywords requires researchers to label topics prior to fitting a model to the data. This contrasts with a widespread practice of post hoc topic interpretation and adjustments that compromises the objectivity of empirical findings. In our application, we find that {keyATM} provides more interpretable results, has better document classification performance, and is less sensitive to the number of topics.},
	issue = {n/a},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Eshima, Shusei and Imai, Kosuke and Sasaki, Tomoya},
	urldate = {2023-05-04},
	langid = {english},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ajps.12779},
}

@article{noauthor_imf_2023,
	title = {{IMF} Says ‘Almost There’ in Lining Up Financing for Tunisian Deal},
	url = {https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-03/imf-says-almost-there-in-lining-up-financing-for-tunisian-deal},
	abstract = {The International Monetary Fund signaled it was close to completing a financial arrangement that should allow Tunisia to secure a \$1.9 billion rescue package.},
	journaltitle = {Bloomberg.com},
	urldate = {2023-05-04},
	date = {2023-05-03},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Africa, Asia, Bonds, Finance, Government, International Monetary Fund, Kais Saied, Markets, Middle East, Tunisia, economics, markets},
}

@article{zollman_academic_2023,
	title = {Academic journals, incentives, and the quality of peer review: a model},
	issn = {0031-8248, 1539-767X},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/philosophy-of-science/article/academic-journals-incentives-and-the-quality-of-peer-review-a-model/04F05FC5C66BF9B8BDE8CAD607BF1933},
	doi = {10.1017/psa.2023.81},
	shorttitle = {Academic journals, incentives, and the quality of peer review},
	abstract = {We model the impact of different incentives on journal behavior in undertaking peer review. Under one scheme, the journal aims to publish the highest quality papers; under the second, the journal aims to maintain a high rejection rate. Under both schemes, journals prefer to set very high standards for acceptance despite allowing significant error in peer review. Under the second scheme, however, in order to encourage more submissions from mediocre papers, the journal is incentivized to make its editorial process less accurate. This leads to both worse peer review and to lower quality articles being published.},
	pages = {1--17},
	journaltitle = {Philosophy of Science},
	author = {Zollman, Kevin J. S. and García, Julian and Handfield, Toby},
	urldate = {2023-05-03},
	date = {2023-05-02},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
}

@article{kaya_populism_2020,
	title = {Populism and Voter Attitudes Toward International Organizations: Cross-Country and Experimental Evidence on the International Monetary Fund},
	url = {https://www.peio.me/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/PEIO13_paper_131_1.pdf},
	abstract = {While populist politicians frequently lambast international organizations ({IOs}) and blame them for
the travails of their countries, we know little about how the populist wave has impacted public
opinion toward {IOs}. We develop a theory of populist blame attribution and evaluate its central
propositions with respect to voter views on the {IMF}. We differentiate between absolute and
relative (i.e. compared to the national government) blame placed on the {IMF} and argue that support
for populism should be associated with higher absolute blame but not higher relative blame,
finding robust support for this claim using data from the 2014 European Election Studies ({EES})
survey. We then explore how two other factors, the extent of {IMF} conditionality and exposure to
populist scapegoating of the {IMF}, might shift blame apportionment. Consistent with our theory,
greater {IMF} conditionality decreases the relative blame populist individuals place on the {IMF}, as
they focus their anger on the more proximate target of the national government. Similarly,
exposure to populist scapegoating against the {IMF} actually decreases relatively blame to the {IMF},
as such attacks inspire more antipathy toward the national government than the {IMF} itself. Overall,
the findings suggest that the inherent tendency of populism to focus wrath on the domestic setting
may end up shielding {IOs} from popular backlash and make the populist wave less threatening to
the multilateral order than often assumed.},
	author = {Kaya, Ayse and Handlin, Sam and Gunaydin, Hakan},
	urldate = {2023-05-03},
	date = {2020-01-01},
}

@article{brutger_at_2022,
	title = {At what cost? Power, payments, and public support of international organizations},
	issn = {1559-744X},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11558-022-09479-9},
	doi = {10.1007/s11558-022-09479-9},
	shorttitle = {At what cost?},
	abstract = {The drivers of public support for international organizations ({IOs}) are multifaceted and contested. Focusing on the {US}, we argue that citizens weigh elite cues about the financial burden associated with funding {IOs} and the influence over {IOs} that such funding yields. Moreover, we identify political ideology as a powerful moderator – theorizing that conservatives should respond more positively to cues about {US} influence and more negatively to cues about financial costs than liberals. We find support for the core theory, but also counterintuitively find that the negative effect of the cost treatment manifests primarily amongst liberals as opposed to conservatives. A second, pre-registered experiment reveals that conservatives support increasing funding to {IOs} to secure {US} influence, and may even support increasing taxes to do so, especially when cued by a co-partisan. By contrast, liberals who learn that funding provides influence prefer to cut funding to {IOs}, even when cued by a co-partisan.},
	journaltitle = {The Review of International Organizations},
	shortjournal = {Rev Int Organ},
	author = {Brutger, Ryan and Clark, Richard},
	urldate = {2023-05-03},
	date = {2022-10-14},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Global governance, International organizations, Power, Public opinion},
}

@article{ecker-ehrhardt_political_2022,
	title = {Political Values, Ideological Proximity, and the Social Legitimacy of International Organizations},
	rights = {{CC}-By Attribution 4.0 International},
	url = {https://osf.io/5e7jd/},
	doi = {10.17605/OSF.IO/5E7JD},
	abstract = {While many scholars expect people’s political values to shape their legitimacy beliefs toward international organizations ({IOs}), research has found surprisingly limited support for this common assumption. This paper resolves this puzzle by identifying ideological proximity as the missing link between political values and {IO} legitimacy beliefs. Theoretically, it develops the novel argument that citizens accord {IOs} greater legitimacy when they perceive these organizations as ideologically closer to their own political values. Empirically, it evaluates this expectation through an ambitious multi-method design, combining observational and experimental analyses of new survey evidence from four countries: Brazil, Germany, Indonesia, and the United States. The results show that citizens indeed perceive {IOs} to have particular ideological profiles and that those perceptions moderate the relationship between political values and {IO} legitimacy beliefs. These findings suggest that political values matter systematically for people’s legitimacy beliefs toward {IOs}, but in ways previous research has been unable to capture.},
	author = {Ecker-Ehrhardt, Matthias and Dellmuth, Lisa and Tallberg, Jonas},
	editora = {Open Science Framework},
	editoratype = {collaborator},
	urldate = {2023-05-03},
	date = {2022-10-10},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Open Science Framework},
	keywords = {{FOS}: Political science, Global Governance, International Relations, International organization, Political Science, Political ideology, Political values, Proximity, Social Legitimacy, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Survey experiment},
}

@article{grant_google_2023,
	title = {Google Promised to Defund Climate Lies, but the Ads Keep Coming},
	issn = {0362-4331},
	url = {https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/02/technology/google-youtube-disinformation-climate-change.html},
	abstract = {Google said in 2021 that it would stop running ads alongside videos and other content that denied the existence and causes of climate change.},
	journaltitle = {The New York Times},
	author = {Grant, Nico and Myers, Steven Lee},
	urldate = {2023-05-02},
	date = {2023-05-02},
	langid = {american},
	keywords = {Computers and the Internet, Global Warming, News and News Media, Rumors and Misinformation, Video Recordings, Downloads and Streaming, {YouTube}.com},
}

@article{nuzzo_opinion_2023,
	title = {Opinion {\textbar} How Well Does Masking Work? And Other Pandemic Questions We Need to Answer.},
	issn = {0362-4331},
	url = {https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/30/opinion/masks-pandemic.html},
	shorttitle = {Opinion {\textbar} How Well Does Masking Work?},
	abstract = {We need better data to guide pandemic decisions.},
	journaltitle = {The New York Times},
	author = {Nuzzo, Jennifer B.},
	urldate = {2023-05-01},
	date = {2023-04-30},
	langid = {american},
	keywords = {Coronavirus (2019-{nCoV}), Epidemics, Masks, Research},
}

@article{best_individuals_nodate,
	title = {Individuals and Organizations as Sources of State Effectiveness},
	issn = {0002-8282},
	url = {https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20191598&from=f},
	doi = {10.1257/aer.20191598},
	journaltitle = {American Economic Review},
	author = {Best, Michael and Hjort, Jonas and Szakonyi, David},
	urldate = {2023-04-28},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{ceci_exploring_2023,
	title = {Exploring Gender Bias in Six Key Domains of Academic Science: An Adversarial Collaboration},
	issn = {1529-1006},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/15291006231163179},
	doi = {10.1177/15291006231163179},
	shorttitle = {Exploring Gender Bias in Six Key Domains of Academic Science},
	abstract = {We synthesized the vast, contradictory scholarly literature on gender bias in academic science from 2000 to 2020. In the most prestigious journals and media outlets, which influence many people?s opinions about sexism, bias is frequently portrayed as an omnipresent factor limiting women?s progress in the tenure-track academy. Claims and counterclaims regarding the presence or absence of sexism span a range of evaluation contexts. Our approach relied on a combination of meta-analysis and analytic dissection. We evaluated the empirical evidence for gender bias in six key contexts in the tenure-track academy: (a) tenure-track hiring, (b) grant funding, (c) teaching ratings, (d) journal acceptances, (e) salaries, and (f) recommendation letters. We also explored the gender gap in a seventh area, journal productivity, because it can moderate bias in other contexts. We focused on these specific domains, in which sexism has most often been alleged to be pervasive, because they represent important types of evaluation, and the extensive research corpus within these domains provides sufficient quantitative data for comprehensive analysis. Contrary to the omnipresent claims of sexism in these domains appearing in top journals and the media, our findings show that tenure-track women are at parity with tenure-track men in three domains (grant funding, journal acceptances, and recommendation letters) and are advantaged over men in a fourth domain (hiring). For teaching ratings and salaries, we found evidence of bias against women; although gender gaps in salary were much smaller than often claimed,?they were nevertheless concerning. Even in the four domains in which we failed to find evidence of sexism disadvantaging women, we nevertheless acknowledge that broad societal structural factors may still impede women?s advancement in academic science. Given the substantial resources directed toward reducing gender bias in academic science, it is imperative to develop a clear understanding of when and where such efforts are justified and of how resources can best be directed to mitigate sexism when and where it exists.},
	pages = {15291006231163179},
	journaltitle = {Psychological Science in the Public Interest},
	shortjournal = {Psychol Sci Public Interest},
	author = {Ceci, Stephen J. and Kahn, Shulamit and Williams, Wendy M.},
	urldate = {2023-04-28},
	date = {2023-04-26},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Inc},
}

@online{yshawkat_estimating_2023,
	title = {Estimating the Size of Public Sector Real Estate in Egypt - Built Environment Observatory مرصد العمران},
	url = {https://marsadomran.info/en/2023/04/2950/, https://marsadomran.info/en/2023/04/2950/},
	abstract = {Part of the Taamir series on public real estate development in Egypt},
	author = {yshawkat},
	urldate = {2023-04-28},
	date = {2023-04-18},
	langid = {american},
}

@misc{mellon_ridge_2022,
	location = {Rochester, {NY}},
	title = {Ridge Regression Can Produce Misleading Inferences in the Presence of Strong Confounders: The Case of Mass Polarization},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=4189012},
	doi = {10.2139/ssrn.4189012},
	shorttitle = {Ridge Regression Can Produce Misleading Inferences in the Presence of Strong Confounders},
	abstract = {Cavari and Freedman (2022) argue that declining cooperation rates in surveys spuriously inflate the increase in polarization measured among the population. We show that their results rely on estimating linear models using ridge regression with a large shrinkage parameter rather than {OLS} (as they had done in previous work). Using simulations we show that their approach has 89.4\%-99.9\% chance of producing false positives if there were no true effect. When using appropriate methods, there are no longer any statistically significant effects and we would need 100-200 times as many observations to reliably detect the effect sizes claimed by Cavari and Freedman.},
	number = {4189012},
	author = {Mellon, Jonathan and Prosser, Christopher},
	urldate = {2023-04-28},
	date = {2022-08-12},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {non-response bias, polarization, ridge regression, spurious correlation, time trend},
}

@article{grzymala-busse_tilly_2023,
	title = {Tilly Goes to Church: The Religious and Medieval Roots of European State Fragmentation},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/tilly-goes-to-church-the-religious-and-medieval-roots-of-european-state-fragmentation/4EEE3598EF17E46DF0050C375C9FDD45?utm_source=hootsuite&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=PSR_Apr23},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055423000278},
	shorttitle = {Tilly Goes to Church},
	abstract = {The starting point for many analyses of European state development is the historical fragmentation of territorial authority. The dominant bellicist explanation for state formation argues that this fragmentation was an unintended consequence of imperial collapse, and that warfare in the early modern era overcame fragmentation by winnowing out small polities and consolidating strong states. Using new data on papal conflict and religious institutions, I show instead that political fragmentation was the outcome of deliberate choices, that it is closely associated with papal conflict, and that political fragmentation persisted for longer than the bellicist explanations would predict. The medieval Catholic Church deliberately and effectively splintered political power in Europe by forming temporal alliances, funding proxy wars, launching crusades, and advancing ideology to ensure its autonomy and power. The roots of European state formation are thus more religious, older, and intentional than often assumed.},
	pages = {1--20},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Grzymala-Busse, Anna},
	urldate = {2023-04-26},
	date = {2023-04-20},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
}

@online{noauthor_tunisia_2023,
	title = {Tunisia faces water cuts amid severe drought, public frustration - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted coverage of the Middle East},
	url = {https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/04/tunisia-faces-water-cuts-amid-severe-drought-public-frustration},
	shorttitle = {Tunisia faces water cuts amid severe drought, public frustration - Al-Monitor},
	abstract = {The drought-hit North African country is imposing water rationing at night for the first time in its fourth dry year, which may increase social tension as Tunisians struggle with high inflation and a weak economy.},
	urldate = {2023-04-24},
	date = {2023-04-19},
	langid = {english},
}

@misc{hagmann_costly_2023,
	title = {Costly Distractions: Focusing on Individual Behavior Undermines Support for Systemic Reforms},
	url = {https://osf.io/z2vwb/},
	doi = {10.31219/osf.io/z2vwb},
	shorttitle = {Costly Distractions},
	abstract = {Policy challenges can typically be addressed both through systemic changes (e.g., taxes and mandates) and by encouraging individual behavior change. In this paper, we propose that, while in principle complementary, systemic and individual perspectives can compete for the limited attention of people and policymakers. Thus, directing policies in one of these two ways can distract the public’s attention from the other—an “attentional opportunity cost.” In two pre-registered experiments (n = 1,800) covering three high-stakes domains (climate change, retirement savings, and public health), we show that when people learn about policies targeting individual behavior (such as awareness campaigns), they are more likely to themselves propose policies that target individual behavior, and to hold individuals rather than organizational actors responsible for solving the problem, than are people who learned about systemic policies (such as taxes and mandates, Study 1). This shift in attribution of responsibility has behavioral consequences: people exposed to individual interventions are more likely to donate to an organization that educates individuals rather than one seeking to effect systemic reforms (Study 2). Policies targeting individual behavior may, therefore, have the unintended consequence of redirecting attention and attributions of responsibility away from systemic change to individual behavior.},
	publisher = {{OSF} Preprints},
	author = {Hagmann, David and Liao, Yi-tsen and Chater, Nick and Loewenstein, George},
	urldate = {2023-04-22},
	date = {2023-04-22},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Attention, Attribution, Behavioral Economics, Behavioral public policy, Business, Business Administration, Business Law, Economics, Experimental Analysis of Behavior, Management, Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods, Nudges, Psychology, Public Affairs, Public Policy, Public Policy and Public Administration, Public Responsibility, Responsibility, Social and Behavioral Sciences, and Ethics Business, and Operations},
}

@online{noauthor_or_nodate,
	title = {With or Without an {IMF} Deal, Tunisia Faces a Rough Road to Recovery},
	url = {https://timep.org/2022/10/20/with-or-without-an-imf-deal-tunisia-faces-a-rough-road-to-recovery/},
	abstract = {Even with an {IMF} deal, as well as other possible future loans, Tunisia's economic recovery will require deep and—most importantly—inclusive reforms that would boost the economy without sacrificing vulnerable households. Rising discontent among Tunisians is also bound to complicate an already complex political and socio-economic crisis regardless of the state’s attempts to solve the crisis now.},
	urldate = {2023-04-21},
	langid = {american},
}

@article{nosek_promoting_2015,
	title = {Promoting an open research culture},
	volume = {348},
	url = {https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.aab2374},
	doi = {10.1126/science.aab2374},
	pages = {1422--1425},
	number = {6242},
	journaltitle = {Science},
	author = {Nosek, B. A. and Alter, G. and Banks, G. C. and Borsboom, D. and Bowman, S. D. and Breckler, S. J. and Buck, S. and Chambers, C. D. and Chin, G. and Christensen, G. and Contestabile, M. and Dafoe, A. and Eich, E. and Freese, J. and Glennerster, R. and Goroff, D. and Green, D. P. and Hesse, B. and Humphreys, M. and Ishiyama, J. and Karlan, D. and Kraut, A. and Lupia, A. and Mabry, P. and Madon, T. and Malhotra, N. and Mayo-Wilson, E. and {McNutt}, M. and Miguel, E. and Paluck, E. Levy and Simonsohn, U. and Soderberg, C. and Spellman, B. A. and Turitto, J. and {VandenBos}, G. and Vazire, S. and Wagenmakers, E. J. and Wilson, R. and Yarkoni, T.},
	urldate = {2023-04-18},
	date = {2015-06-26},
	note = {Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science},
}

@article{stommes_reliability_2023,
	title = {On the reliability of published findings using the regression discontinuity design in political science},
	volume = {10},
	issn = {2053-1680},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680231166457},
	doi = {10.1177/20531680231166457},
	abstract = {The regression discontinuity ({RD}) design offers identification of causal effects under weak assumptions, earning it a position as a standard method in modern political science research. But identification does not necessarily imply that causal effects can be estimated accurately with limited data. In this paper, we highlight that estimation under the {RD} design involves serious statistical challenges and investigate how these challenges manifest themselves in the empirical literature in political science. We collect all {RD}-based findings published in top political science journals in the period 2009?2018. The distribution of published results exhibits pathological features; estimates tend to bunch just above the conventional level of statistical significance. A reanalysis of all studies with available data suggests that researcher discretion is not a major driver of these features. However, researchers tend to use inappropriate methods for inference, rendering standard errors artificially small. A retrospective power analysis reveals that most of these studies were underpowered to detect all but large effects. The issues we uncover, combined with well-documented selection pressures in academic publishing, cause concern that many published findings using the {RD} design may be exaggerated.},
	pages = {20531680231166457},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Research \& Politics},
	author = {Stommes, Drew and Aronow, P. M. and Sävje, Fredrik},
	urldate = {2023-04-18},
	date = {2023-04-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Ltd},
}

@online{noauthor_tunisia_2022,
	title = {Tunisia president giving gifts to his supports while poor die, union leader says},
	url = {https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20221019-tunisia-president-giving-gifts-to-his-supports-while-poor-die-union-leader-says/},
	abstract = {Tunisian President Kais Saied and his government are rewarding the president's supporters and marginalising thousands of young people who die in boats trying to escape the country's collapsing econo...},
	titleaddon = {Middle East Monitor},
	urldate = {2023-04-17},
	date = {2022-10-19},
	langid = {british},
}

@online{noauthor_tunisias_2023,
	title = {Tunisia’s decision to snub {IMF} deal is both reckless and bizarre},
	url = {https://arab.news/4cca5},
	abstract = {In a move that was less of a surprise and more a reflection of just how far gone Tunisia now is, President Kais Saied this month rejected the idea of implementing economic reforms required by the International Monetary Fund as part of a \$1.9 billion bailout package agreed in October last year. Tunisia, a North African country that emerged from the Arab Spring as a beacon of democracy, has been grappling with economic hardships and political instability in recent years. Citing concerns over subsidy cuts and potential unrest, Saied rejected the terms of the bailout package.},
	titleaddon = {Arab News},
	urldate = {2023-04-17},
	date = {2023-04-15},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{kilavuz_ghosts_2023,
	title = {Ghosts of the Black Decade: How legacies of violence shaped Algeria’s Hirak protests},
	volume = {60},
	issn = {0022-3433},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221137613},
	doi = {10.1177/00223433221137613},
	shorttitle = {Ghosts of the Black Decade},
	abstract = {Episodes of mass political violence, such as genocide and civil war, have been thought to both encourage and discourage future political mobilization. We square these competing hypotheses by disaggregating between protest onset and resilience. We argue that exposure to mass violence decades ago should on average decrease protest onset, by heightening fears of repression and retribution. However, conditional on protesting, prior exposure to violence should increase protest longevity, by generating greater political grievances that fuel commitment to the cause. We find evidence of both effects in Algeria during the 2019?20 Hirak protests that toppled President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. Pairing an original dataset on massacres during the 1990s civil war with a rolling online survey of 18,000 Algerians in 2019?20, we find that areas exposed to greater violence in the 1990s had on average fewer, but more committed, protesters in 2019?20.},
	pages = {9--25},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Kilavuz, M Tahir and Grewal, Sharan and Kubinec, Robert},
	urldate = {2023-04-12},
	date = {2023-01-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Ltd},
}

@article{persson_rich_2023,
	title = {The Rich Have a Slight Edge: Evidence from Comparative Data on Income-Based Inequality in Policy Congruence},
	issn = {0007-1234, 1469-2112},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/rich-have-a-slight-edge-evidence-from-comparative-data-on-incomebased-inequality-in-policy-congruence/A09095FC0874B162149014212872BE86},
	doi = {10.1017/S0007123423000066},
	shorttitle = {The Rich Have a Slight Edge},
	abstract = {Several recent studies have found unequal policy responsiveness, meaning that the policy preferences of high-income citizens are better reflected in implemented policies than the policy preferences of low-income citizens. This has been found mainly in a few studies from the {US} and a small number of single-country studies from Western Europe. However, there is a lack of comparative studies that stake out the terrain across a broader group of countries. We analyze survey data on the policy preferences of about 3,000 policy proposals from thirty European countries over nearly forty years, combined with information on whether each policy proposal was implemented or not. The results from the cross-country data confirm the general pattern from previous studies that policies supported by the rich are more likely to be implemented than those supported by the poor. We also test four explanations commonly found in the literature: whether unequal responsiveness is exacerbated by (a) high economic inequality, (b) the absence of campaign finance regulations, (c) low union density, and (d) low voter turnout.},
	pages = {1--12},
	journaltitle = {British Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Persson, Mikael and Sundell, Anders},
	urldate = {2023-04-12},
	date = {2023-04-11},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
	keywords = {congruence, political representation, responsiveness},
}

@misc{von_kugelgen_backtracking_2023,
	title = {Backtracking Counterfactuals},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2211.00472},
	doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2211.00472},
	abstract = {Counterfactual reasoning -- envisioning hypothetical scenarios, or possible worlds, where some circumstances are different from what (f)actually occurred (counter-to-fact) -- is ubiquitous in human cognition. Conventionally, counterfactually-altered circumstances have been treated as "small miracles" that locally violate the laws of nature while sharing the same initial conditions. In Pearl's structural causal model ({SCM}) framework this is made mathematically rigorous via interventions that modify the causal laws while the values of exogenous variables are shared. In recent years, however, this purely interventionist account of counterfactuals has increasingly come under scrutiny from both philosophers and psychologists. Instead, they suggest a backtracking account of counterfactuals, according to which the causal laws remain unchanged in the counterfactual world; differences to the factual world are instead "backtracked" to altered initial conditions (exogenous variables). In the present work, we explore and formalise this alternative mode of counterfactual reasoning within the {SCM} framework. Despite ample evidence that humans backtrack, the present work constitutes, to the best of our knowledge, the first general account and algorithmisation of backtracking counterfactuals. We discuss our backtracking semantics in the context of related literature and draw connections to recent developments in explainable artificial intelligence ({XAI}).},
	number = {{arXiv}:2211.00472},
	publisher = {{arXiv}},
	author = {von Kügelgen, Julius and Mohamed, Abdirisak and Beckers, Sander},
	urldate = {2023-04-12},
	date = {2023-02-21},
	eprinttype = {arxiv},
	eprint = {2211.00472 [cs, stat]},
	keywords = {Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Statistics - Machine Learning},
}

@online{blattman_statistician_2015,
	title = {Statistician Neal Beck just justified my longstanding hatred and loathing of logit},
	url = {http://af4.cf3.mwp.accessdomain.com/blog/2015/07/22/statistician-neal-beck-just-justified-my-longstanding-hatred-and-loathing-of-logit/},
	abstract = {Neal is probably horrified by my slightly inaccurate title, but we all know this blog ain’t the New York Times. In 2010 I was on sabbatical at {NYU}’s political science department. Neal asked me why I always used ordinary least squares regressions ({OLS}) when my dependent variable was a 1 or 0. Why not logit […]},
	titleaddon = {Chris Blattman},
	author = {Blattman, Chris},
	urldate = {2023-04-11},
	date = {2015-07-22},
	langid = {american},
}

@online{noauthor_what_2023,
	title = {What is the empirical evidence for the different arguments for and against government support for firms in developing countries?},
	url = {https://blogs.worldbank.org/impactevaluations/what-empirical-evidence-different-arguments-and-against-government-support-firms},
	abstract = {I discuss some of the evidence for and against different arguments around industrial policy},
	urldate = {2023-04-11},
	date = {2023-04-10},
	langid = {english},
}

@misc{cabello_counter-reformation_2023,
	location = {Rochester, {NY}},
	title = {The Counter-Reformation, Science, and Long-Term Growth: A Black Legend?},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=4389708},
	doi = {10.2139/ssrn.4389708},
	shorttitle = {The Counter-Reformation, Science, and Long-Term Growth},
	abstract = {To identify effects of science on growth in the long-term, we need a shock to science which is sufficiently persistent. Was the Counter-Reformation—the Catholic reaction to Protestantism—such a shock? Did it harm science, unintentionally but enduringly, and thereby depress economic growth, as some historians have claimed? This paper presents vast evidence in favor of this contested narrative. It finds that, across Europe, Catholic and Protestant cities had shared comparable numbers of scientists per capita prior to the Counter-Reformation, but Catholic cities experienced a cataclysmic relative decline precisely when the Counter-Reformation was implemented, especially among more heavily treated units. It then shows that the shock persisted in the long term, largely thanks to the reactivation of Counter-Reformation-rooted policies centuries later. Finally, it exploits this persistence to estimate long-term growth effects and confirms them using alternative variance unrelated to the Counter-Reformation. Overall, the Counter-Reformation appears to be one of the largest shocks to science in human history.},
	number = {4389708},
	author = {Cabello, Matías},
	urldate = {2023-04-11},
	date = {2023-03-15},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Catholicism, Counter-Reformation, Inquisition, Science, Spanish Empire, causes of persistence, censorship, conservatism, dictatorships, long-term economic growth, political economy},
}

@article{berne_carbon_2022,
	title = {The carbon footprint of scientific visibility},
	volume = {17},
	issn = {1748-9326},
	url = {https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac9b51},
	doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac9b51},
	abstract = {In the face of global warming, academics have started to consider and analyze the environmental and carbon footprint associated with their professional activity. Among the several sources of greenhouse gas emissions from research activities, air travel—one of the most visible and unequal fractions of this footprint—has received much attention. Of particular interest is the question of how air travel may be related to scientific success or visibility as defined by current academic evaluation norms, notably bibliometric indicators. Existing studies, conducted over a small sample of individuals or within specific disciplines, have demonstrated that the number of citations may be related to air-travel frequency, but have failed to identify a link between air travel and publication rate or h-index. Here, using a comprehensive dataset aggregating the answers from over 6000 respondents to a survey sent to randomly selected scientists and staff across all research disciplines in France, we show that higher individual air travel is associated with a stronger publication rate and h-index. This relationship is robust to the inclusion of the effects of gender, career stage, and disciplines. Our analysis suggests that flying is a means for early-career scientists to obtain scientific visibility, and for senior scientists to maintain this visibility.},
	pages = {124008},
	number = {12},
	journaltitle = {Environmental Research Letters},
	shortjournal = {Environ. Res. Lett.},
	author = {Berné, Olivier and Agier, Lydiane and Hardy, Antoine and Lellouch, Emmanuel and Aumont, Olivier and Mariette, Jérôme and Ben-Ari, Tamara},
	urldate = {2023-04-10},
	date = {2022-11},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {IOP} Publishing},
}

@online{noauthor_saudiwinordbetareg_pack_nodate,
	title = {[saudiwin/ordbetareg\_pack] modelsummary 1.4.0 ({PR} \#13) - bobkubinec@gmail.com - Gmail},
	url = {https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgzGsltLlzbdRhxnDrwZSswVjmPDw},
	urldate = {2023-04-06},
}

@article{cebul_military_2022,
	title = {Military Conscription and Nonviolent Resistance},
	volume = {55},
	issn = {0010-4140},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140211066209},
	doi = {10.1177/00104140211066209},
	abstract = {Nonviolent campaigns against repressive regimes often turn on the military?s decision to either defend the ruler or make common cause with the ruled. Yet surprisingly little scholarship investigates opposition expectations for the military?s likely response to mass protest. We theorize that some determinants of the military?s willingness to repress are more observable to activists than others. In particular, we identify conscription as a highly salient indicator that soldiers will refuse to fire on protesters and hypothesize that nonviolent campaigns are more likely to materialize against regimes with conscripted armies than those with volunteer forces. We substantiate this theory with two sources of evidence: (1) a survey experiment conducted during the 2019 Algerian Revolution and (2) a cross-national analysis of the positive association between conscription and nonviolent campaign onset from 1945 to 2013.},
	pages = {2217--2249},
	number = {13},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Cebul, Matthew D. and Grewal, Sharan},
	urldate = {2023-03-30},
	date = {2022-11-01},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Inc},
}

@misc{jha_financial_2023,
	location = {Rochester, {NY}},
	title = {Financial Market Exposure Increases Generalized Trust, Particularly Among the Politically Polarized},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=4399612},
	abstract = {Generalized trust is essential for supporting the functioning of modern societies, yet many countries experience limited trust. Given the social, economic, and political benefits of trust, it is crucial to understand how to increase generalized trust, especially in polarized societies. We argue that exposure to opportunities to trade in broad financial markets can increase generalized trust because it exposes investors to shared risks and returns that highlight the benefits of large-scale economic cooperation. Reporting results from a randomized controlled trial in which we encouraged Israelis to trade stocks for up to seven weeks, we show that participation in financial markets increased generalized trust by 5.9pp. This effect is more salient among male respondents with polarized political preferences and lower levels of pre-treatment trust and is also stronger among successful investors and robust to negative price changes. Our findings highlight the promise of financial innovations in facilitating trust in polarized societies.},
	number = {4399612},
	author = {Jha, Saumitra and Shayo, Moses and Weiss, Chagai},
	urldate = {2023-03-25},
	date = {2023-03-24},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Financial Markets, Polarization, Political Economy, Trust},
}

@video{lastweektonight_artificial_2023,
	title = {Artificial Intelligence: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver ({HBO})},
	url = {https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sqa8Zo2XWc4},
	shorttitle = {Artificial Intelligence},
	abstract = {Artificial intelligence is increasingly becoming part of our lives, from self-driving cars to {ChatGPT}. John Oliver discusses how {AI} works, where it might be heading next, and, of course, why it hates the bus.

Connect with Last Week Tonight online... 

Subscribe to the Last Week Tonight {YouTube} channel for more almost news as it almost happens:    / lastweektonight   

Find Last Week Tonight on Facebook like your mom would: www.facebook.com/lastweektonight 

Follow us on Twitter for news about jokes and jokes about news: www.twitter.com/lastweektonight 

Visit our official site for all that other stuff at once: www.hbo.com/lastweektonight},
	author = {{LastWeekTonight}},
	urldate = {2023-03-24},
	date = {2023-02-27},
}

@article{steinberg_public_2023,
	title = {Public responses to foreign protectionism: Evidence from the {US}-China trade war},
	volume = {18},
	issn = {1559-744X},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11558-022-09468-y},
	doi = {10.1007/s11558-022-09468-y},
	shorttitle = {Public responses to foreign protectionism},
	abstract = {America’s recent turn towards protectionism has raised concerns over the future viability of the liberal international trading system. This study examines how and why public attitudes towards international trade change when one’s country is targeted by protectionist measures from abroad. To address this question, we fielded three original survey experiments in the country most affected by {US} protectionism: China. First, we find consistent evidence that {US} protectionism reduces support for trade among Chinese citizens. We replicate this finding in parallel experiments on technology cooperation, and provide further external validation with a survey experiment in Argentina. Second, we show that responses to {US} protectionism reflect both a “direct reciprocity” logic, whereby citizens want to retaliate against the {US} specifically, as well as a “generalized reciprocity” logic that reduces support for trade on a broader, systemic, basis.},
	pages = {145--167},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Review of International Organizations},
	shortjournal = {Rev Int Organ},
	author = {Steinberg, David A. and Tan, Yeling},
	urldate = {2023-03-07},
	date = {2023-01-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{brutger_trade_2023,
	title = {Trade Wars and Election Interference},
	volume = {18},
	issn = {1559-744X},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11558-022-09464-2},
	doi = {10.1007/s11558-022-09464-2},
	abstract = {In response to the Trump trade war, China, the {EU}, and other countries enacted politically-targeted trade retaliation ({PTTR}) against swing states and Republican strongholds in the United States. We argue that {PTTR} increases public concerns about foreign election interference and assess the effects of such retaliation across partisan affiliations. We test our predictions using a national survey experiment in the United States fielded before the 2020 election. In contrast to findings about sanctions and foreign endorsements, we find strong evidence that {PTTR} increases fears of election interference among both Republicans and Democrats. Partisan double standards in reaction to {PTTR} were strongest for retaliation targeting swing states and smaller for retaliation targeting the President’s base. Overall, the evidence shows that economic policies which are not primarily intended to influence elections may nevertheless come to be viewed by the public as foreign election interference.},
	pages = {1--25},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Review of International Organizations},
	shortjournal = {Rev Int Organ},
	author = {Brutger, Ryan and Chaudoin, Stephen and Kagan, Max},
	urldate = {2023-03-07},
	date = {2023-01-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{brembs_replacing_2023,
	title = {Replacing academic journals},
	url = {https://zenodo.org/record/7643806},
	doi = {10.5281/zenodo.7643806},
	abstract = {A major factor underlying several of scholarship's most pressing problems is its antiquated journal system with its trifecta of reproducibility, affordability and functionality crises. Any solution needs to not only solve the current problems but also be capable of preventing a takeover by corporations. Technically, there is broad agreement on the goal for a modern scholarly digital infrastructure: it needs to replace traditional journals with a decentralized, resilient, evolvable network that is interconnected by open standards under the governance of the scholarly community. It needs to replace the monopolies of current journals with a genuine, functioning and well-regulated market. In this new market, substitutable service providers compete and innovate according to the conditions of the scholarly community, avoiding further vendor lock-in. Redirection of funding from the legacy publishers to the new framework may be realized by a tried-and-tested incentive system: Funding agencies have ensured minimum standards at funded institutions by requiring specific infrastructures. These requirements, updated to include the new framework, provide exquisite incentives for institutions to redirect their infrastructure funds from antiquated journals to modern technology. At the same time and enabled by this plan, new, modern and adaptable reputation systems, long demanded by the scientific community, can finally be implemented. Ownership involves socially recognized economic rights, first and foremost the exclusive control over that property, with the self-efficacy it affords. The inability to exert such control over crucial components of their scholarly infrastructure in the face of a generally recognized need for action for over three decades now, evinces the dramatic erosion of real ownership rights for the scholarly community over said infrastructure. Thus, this proposal is motivated not only by the now very urgent need to restore such ownership to the scholarly community, but also by the understanding that through their funding bodies, scholars may have an effective and proven avenue at their disposal to identify game-changing actions and to design a financial incentive structure for recipient institutions that can help realize the restoration of ownership, with the goal to implement open digital infrastructures that are as effective and as invisible as their non-digital counterparts.},
	author = {Brembs, Björn and Huneman, Philippe and Schönbrodt, Felix and Nilsonne, Gustav and Susi, Toma and Siems, Renke and Perakakis, Pandelis and Trachana, Varvara and Ma, Lai and Rodriguez-Cuadrado, Sara},
	urldate = {2023-02-22},
	date = {2023-02-15},
	keywords = {Plan I, infrastructure, journals, scholarship, literature, research data, source code, science},
}

@article{brembs_replacing_2023-1,
	title = {Replacing academic journals},
	url = {https://zenodo.org/record/7643806},
	doi = {10.5281/zenodo.7643806},
	abstract = {A major factor underlying several of scholarship's most pressing problems is its antiquated journal system with its trifecta of reproducibility, affordability and functionality crises. Any solution needs to not only solve the current problems but also be capable of preventing a takeover by corporations. Technically, there is broad agreement on the goal for a modern scholarly digital infrastructure: it needs to replace traditional journals with a decentralized, resilient, evolvable network that is interconnected by open standards under the governance of the scholarly community. It needs to replace the monopolies of current journals with a genuine, functioning and well-regulated market. In this new market, substitutable service providers compete and innovate according to the conditions of the scholarly community, avoiding further vendor lock-in. Redirection of funding from the legacy publishers to the new framework may be realized by a tried-and-tested incentive system: Funding agencies have ensured minimum standards at funded institutions by requiring specific infrastructures. These requirements, updated to include the new framework, provide exquisite incentives for institutions to redirect their infrastructure funds from antiquated journals to modern technology. At the same time and enabled by this plan, new, modern and adaptable reputation systems, long demanded by the scientific community, can finally be implemented. Ownership involves socially recognized economic rights, first and foremost the exclusive control over that property, with the self-efficacy it affords. The inability to exert such control over crucial components of their scholarly infrastructure in the face of a generally recognized need for action for over three decades now, evinces the dramatic erosion of real ownership rights for the scholarly community over said infrastructure. Thus, this proposal is motivated not only by the now very urgent need to restore such ownership to the scholarly community, but also by the understanding that through their funding bodies, scholars may have an effective and proven avenue at their disposal to identify game-changing actions and to design a financial incentive structure for recipient institutions that can help realize the restoration of ownership, with the goal to implement open digital infrastructures that are as effective and as invisible as their non-digital counterparts.},
	author = {Brembs, Björn and Huneman, Philippe and Schönbrodt, Felix and Nilsonne, Gustav and Susi, Toma and Siems, Renke and Perakakis, Pandelis and Trachana, Varvara and Ma, Lai and Rodriguez-Cuadrado, Sara},
	urldate = {2023-02-22},
	date = {2023-02-15},
	keywords = {Plan I, infrastructure, journals, scholarship, literature, research data, source code, science},
}

@misc{tierney_multivariate_2023,
	title = {Multivariate Bayesian dynamic modeling for causal prediction},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2302.03200},
	doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2302.03200},
	abstract = {Bayesian dynamic modeling and forecasting is developed in the setting of sequential time series analysis for causal inference. Causal evaluation of sequentially observed time series data from control and treated units focuses on the impacts of interventions using synthetic control constructs. Methodological contributions include the development of multivariate dynamic models for time-varying effects across multiple treated units and explicit foci on sequential learning of effects of interventions. Analysis explores the utility of dimension reduction of multiple potential synthetic control variables. These methodological advances are evaluated in a detailed case study in commercial forecasting. This involves in-study evaluation of interventions in a supermarket promotions experiment, with coupled predictive analyses in selected regions of a large-scale commercial system. Generalization of causal predictive inferences from experimental settings to broader populations is a central concern, and one that can be impacted by cross-series dependencies.},
	number = {{arXiv}:2302.03200},
	publisher = {{arXiv}},
	author = {Tierney, Graham and Hellmayr, Christoph and Barkimer, Greg and West, Mike},
	urldate = {2023-02-15},
	date = {2023-02-06},
	eprinttype = {arxiv},
	eprint = {2302.03200 [stat]},
	keywords = {Statistics - Methodology},
}

@report{esterling_necessity_2021,
	title = {The Necessity of Construct and External Validity for Generalized Causal Claims},
	url = {https://osf.io/2s8w5},
	abstract = {The Credibility Revolution advances quantitative research designs intended to identify causal effects from observed data. The ensuing emphasis on internal validity however has enabled the neglect of construct and external validity. This article develops a framework we call causal specification. The framework formally demonstrates the joint necessity of assumptions regarding internal, construct and external validity for causal generalization. Indeed, the lack of any of the three types of validity undermines the Credibility Revolution’s own goal to understand causality deductively. Without assumptions regarding construct validity, one cannot accurately label the cause or outcome. Without assumptions regarding external validity, one cannot label the conditions enabling the cause to have an effect. These assumptions ultimately are founded on qualitative and theoretical understandings of a causal process. As a result, causal specification clarifies the central role of qualitative research in underwriting deductive understandings of causality in quantitative research.},
	institution = {Open Science Framework},
	type = {preprint},
	author = {Esterling, Kevin and Brady, David and Schwitzgebel, Eric},
	urldate = {2023-02-14},
	date = {2021-01-27},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.31219/osf.io/2s8w5},
}

@misc{tierney_multivariate_2023-1,
	title = {Multivariate Bayesian dynamic modeling for causal prediction},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2302.03200},
	doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2302.03200},
	abstract = {Bayesian dynamic modeling and forecasting is developed in the setting of sequential time series analysis for causal inference. Causal evaluation of sequentially observed time series data from control and treated units focuses on the impacts of interventions using synthetic control constructs. Methodological contributions include the development of multivariate dynamic models for time-varying effects across multiple treated units and explicit foci on sequential learning of effects of interventions. Analysis explores the utility of dimension reduction of multiple potential synthetic control variables. These methodological advances are evaluated in a detailed case study in commercial forecasting. This involves in-study evaluation of interventions in a supermarket promotions experiment, with coupled predictive analyses in selected regions of a large-scale commercial system. Generalization of causal predictive inferences from experimental settings to broader populations is a central concern, and one that can be impacted by cross-series dependencies.},
	number = {{arXiv}:2302.03200},
	publisher = {{arXiv}},
	author = {Tierney, Graham and Hellmayr, Christoph and Barkimer, Greg and West, Mike},
	urldate = {2023-02-14},
	date = {2023-02-06},
	eprinttype = {arxiv},
	eprint = {2302.03200 [stat]},
	keywords = {Statistics - Methodology},
}

@article{shinnar_entrepreneurial_2018,
	title = {Entrepreneurial intentions and start-ups: Are women or men more likely to enact their intentions?},
	volume = {36},
	issn = {0266-2426},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0266242617704277},
	doi = {10.1177/0266242617704277},
	shorttitle = {Entrepreneurial intentions and start-ups},
	abstract = {While empirical data clearly show that women are underrepresented among entrepreneurs, the causes of this gap are entirely not clear. This article explores one potential cause: that women might be less likely to act on their entrepreneurial intentions. Building on Ajzen?s theory of planned behaviour, we propose that intentions predict start-up behaviours, that is, that there is an intention?behaviour link. We then apply social role theory to propose that the intention?behaviour link is moderated by sex. Analysing data drawn from a sample of {US}-based management students during their first session in an introductory entrepreneurship course, at the end of the course, on their graduation and at a point up to three years after graduation, we find support for the intention?behaviour link and moderation of this link by sex. We identify additional contributions from our study and implications of our findings for addressing the sex gap in entrepreneurship.},
	pages = {60--80},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {International Small Business Journal},
	author = {Shinnar, Rachel S and Hsu, Dan K and Powell, Benjamin C and Zhou, Haibo},
	urldate = {2023-02-13},
	date = {2018-02-01},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Ltd},
}

@article{schlaegel_determinants_2014,
	title = {Determinants of Entrepreneurial Intent: A Meta–Analytic Test and Integration of Competing Models},
	volume = {38},
	issn = {1042-2587},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/etap.12087},
	doi = {10.1111/etap.12087},
	shorttitle = {Determinants of Entrepreneurial Intent},
	abstract = {Increasing interest in the development of entrepreneurial intentions has elevated the importance of theories that predict and explain individuals? propensity to start a firm. The purpose of this study is to meta?analytically test and integrate the theory of planned behavior and the entrepreneurial event model. We summarize the findings of 98 studies (123 samples, n = 114,007) and utilize meta?analytic structural equation modeling to examine the empirical fit of the competing theories and the integrated model. Our results demonstrate support for the competing theories and indicate the moderating role of contextual boundary conditions in the development of entrepreneurial intent. Furthermore, our findings suggest that the integrated model provides additional explanatory power and a fuller understanding of the process through which entrepreneurial intent develops.},
	pages = {291--332},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice},
	author = {Schlaegel, Christopher and Koenig, Michael},
	urldate = {2023-02-13},
	date = {2014-03-01},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Inc},
}

@article{nabi_impact_2017,
	title = {The Impact of Entrepreneurship Education in Higher Education: A Systematic Review and Research Agenda},
	volume = {16},
	issn = {1537-260X},
	url = {https://journals.aom.org/doi/abs/10.5465/amle.2015.0026},
	doi = {10.5465/amle.2015.0026},
	shorttitle = {The Impact of Entrepreneurship Education in Higher Education},
	abstract = {Using a teaching model framework, we systematically review empirical evidence on the impact of entrepreneurship education ({EE}) in higher education on a range of entrepreneurial outcomes, analyzing 159 published articles from 2004 to 2016. The teaching model framework allows us for the first time to start rigorously examining relationships between pedagogical methods and specific outcomes. Reconfirming past reviews and meta-analyses, we find that {EE} impact research still predominantly focuses on short-term and subjective outcome measures and tends to severely underdescribe the actual pedagogies being tested. Moreover, we use our review to provide an up-to-date and empirically rooted call for less obvious, yet greatly promising, new or underemphasized directions for future research on the impact of university-based entrepreneurship education. This includes, for example, the use of novel impact indicators related to emotion and mind-set, focus on the impact indicators related to the intention-to-behavior transition, and exploring the reasons for some contradictory findings in impact studies including person-, context-, and pedagogical model-specific moderators.},
	pages = {277--299},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Academy of Management Learning \& Education},
	shortjournal = {{AMLE}},
	author = {Nabi, Ghulam and Liñán, Francisco and Fayolle, Alain and Krueger, Norris and Walmsley, Andreas},
	urldate = {2023-02-13},
	date = {2017-06},
	note = {Publisher: Academy of Management},
}

@article{martin_examining_2013,
	title = {Examining the formation of human capital in entrepreneurship: A meta-analysis of entrepreneurship education outcomes},
	volume = {28},
	issn = {0883-9026},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883902612000602},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jbusvent.2012.03.002},
	shorttitle = {Examining the formation of human capital in entrepreneurship},
	abstract = {Effective human capital formation through the medium of entrepreneurship education and training ({EET}) is of increasing concern for governments, as {EET} is growing rapidly across the world. Unfortunately, there is a lack of consistent evidence showing that {EET} helps to create more or better entrepreneurs. We undertake the first quantitative review of the literature and, in the context of human capital theory, find that there is indeed support for the value of {EET}. Based on 42 independent samples (N=16,657), we find a significant relationship between {EET} and entrepreneurship-related human capital assets (rw=.217) and entrepreneurship outcomes (rw=.159). The relationship between {EET} and entrepreneurship outcomes is stronger for academic-focused {EET} interventions (rw=.238) than for training-focused {EET} interventions (rw=.151). We find evidence of heterogeneity in many of our correlations, and recommend that future studies examine potential moderators to more clearly delineate {EET} effect sizes. We also find a number of methodological weaknesses among the studies analyzed and that those studies with lower methodological rigor are overstating the effect of {EET}. Recommendations to improve the quality of future work in the field are provided.},
	pages = {211--224},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Business Venturing},
	shortjournal = {Journal of Business Venturing},
	author = {Martin, Bruce C. and {McNally}, Jeffrey J. and Kay, Michael J.},
	urldate = {2023-02-13},
	date = {2013-03-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Entrepreneurship education, Human capital, Meta-analysis, Methods},
}

@article{leemann_eliciting_2021,
	title = {Eliciting Beliefs as Distributions in Online Surveys},
	volume = {29},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/eliciting-beliefs-as-distributions-in-online-surveys/6DE2F8CD556DF26C1A56903A8F25BECF},
	doi = {10.1017/pan.2020.42},
	abstract = {Citizens’ beliefs about uncertain events are fundamental variables in many areas of political science. While beliefs are often conceptualized in the form of distributions, obtaining reliable measures in terms of full probability densities is a difficult task. In this letter, we ask if there is an effective way of eliciting beliefs as distributions in the context of online surveys. Relying on experimental evidence, we evaluate the performance of five different elicitation methods designed to capture citizens’ uncertain expectations. Our results suggest that an elicitation method originally proposed by Manski (2009) performs well. It measures average citizens’ subjective belief distributions reliably and is easily implemented in the context of regular (online) surveys. We expect that a wider use of this method will lead to considerable improvements in the study of citizens’ expectations and beliefs.},
	pages = {541--553},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Leemann, Lucas and Stoetzer, Lukas F. and Traunmüller, Richard},
	urldate = {2023-02-13},
	date = {2021-10},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
	keywords = {citizen beliefs, measurement, online survey research, prior elicitation},
}

@misc{zhi-han_training_2022,
	title = {Training Latent Variable Models with Auto-encoding Variational Bayes: A Tutorial},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2208.07818},
	shorttitle = {Training Latent Variable Models with Auto-encoding Variational Bayes},
	abstract = {Auto-encoding Variational Bayes ({AEVB}) is a powerful and general algorithm for fitting latent variable models (a promising direction for unsupervised learning), and is well-known for training the Variational Auto-Encoder ({VAE}). In this tutorial, we focus on motivating {AEVB} from the classic Expectation Maximization ({EM}) algorithm, as opposed to from deterministic auto-encoders. Though natural and somewhat self-evident, the connection between {EM} and {AEVB} is not emphasized in the recent deep learning literature, and we believe that emphasizing this connection can improve the community's understanding of {AEVB}. In particular, we find it especially helpful to view (1) optimizing the evidence lower bound ({ELBO}) with respect to inference parameters as approximate E-step and (2) optimizing {ELBO} with respect to generative parameters as approximate M-step; doing both simultaneously as in {AEVB} is then simply tightening and pushing up {ELBO} at the same time. We discuss how approximate E-step can be interpreted as performing variational inference. Important concepts such as amortization and the reparametrization trick are discussed in great detail. Finally, we derive from scratch the {AEVB} training procedures of a non-deep and several deep latent variable models, including {VAE}, Conditional {VAE}, Gaussian Mixture {VAE} and Variational {RNN}. It is our hope that readers would recognize {AEVB} as a general algorithm that can be used to fit a wide range of latent variable models (not just {VAE}), and apply {AEVB} to such models that arise in their own fields of research. {PyTorch} code for all included models are publicly available.},
	number = {{arXiv}:2208.07818},
	publisher = {{arXiv}},
	author = {Zhi-Han, Yang},
	urldate = {2023-02-13},
	date = {2022-08-16},
	eprinttype = {arxiv},
	eprint = {2208.07818 [cs, stat]},
	keywords = {Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Statistics - Machine Learning},
}

@misc{loaiza-ganem_continuous_2019,
	title = {The continuous Bernoulli: fixing a pervasive error in variational autoencoders},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1907.06845},
	shorttitle = {The continuous Bernoulli},
	abstract = {Variational autoencoders ({VAE}) have quickly become a central tool in machine learning, applicable to a broad range of data types and latent variable models. By far the most common first step, taken by seminal papers and by core software libraries alike, is to model {MNIST} data using a deep network parameterizing a Bernoulli likelihood. This practice contains what appears to be and what is often set aside as a minor inconvenience: the pixel data is [0,1] valued, not \{0,1\} as supported by the Bernoulli likelihood. Here we show that, far from being a triviality or nuisance that is convenient to ignore, this error has profound importance to {VAE}, both qualitative and quantitative. We introduce and fully characterize a new [0,1]-supported, single parameter distribution: the continuous Bernoulli, which patches this pervasive bug in {VAE}. This distribution is not nitpicking; it produces meaningful performance improvements across a range of metrics and datasets, including sharper image samples, and suggests a broader class of performant {VAE}.},
	number = {{arXiv}:1907.06845},
	publisher = {{arXiv}},
	author = {Loaiza-Ganem, Gabriel and Cunningham, John P.},
	urldate = {2023-02-13},
	date = {2019-12-29},
	eprinttype = {arxiv},
	eprint = {1907.06845 [cs, stat]},
	keywords = {Computer Science - Machine Learning, Statistics - Machine Learning},
}

@article{kalisch_causal_2012,
	title = {Causal Inference Using Graphical Models with the R Package pcalg},
	volume = {47},
	rights = {Copyright (c) 2010 Markus Kalisch, Martin Mächler, Diego Colombo, Marloes H. Maathuis, Peter Bühlmann},
	issn = {1548-7660},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v047.i11},
	doi = {10.18637/jss.v047.i11},
	abstract = {The pcalg package for R can be used for the following two purposes: Causal structure learning and estimation of causal effects from observational data. In this document, we give a brief overview of the methodology, and demonstrate the package’s functionality in both toy examples and applications.},
	pages = {1--26},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Statistical Software},
	author = {Kalisch, Markus and Mächler, Martin and Colombo, Diego and Maathuis, Marloes H. and Bühlmann, Peter},
	urldate = {2023-02-12},
	date = {2012-05-17},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{caggiano_global_nodate,
	title = {Global Financial Uncertainty},
	volume = {n/a},
	issn = {1099-1255},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jae.2958},
	doi = {10.1002/jae.2958},
	abstract = {We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty ({GFU}) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models global, regional, and country-specific factors. We quantify the impact of {GFU} shocks on global output with a {VAR} analysis that achieves set-identification via a combination of narrative, sign, ratio, and correlation restrictions. We find that the contraction in world output during the Great Recession would have been 13\% milder in absence of {GFU} shocks. We also find support for a global finance uncertainty multiplier: the more global financial conditions deteriorate after a {GFU} shock, the larger the world output contraction is.},
	issue = {n/a},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Applied Econometrics},
	author = {Caggiano, Giovanni and Castelnuovo, Efrem},
	urldate = {2023-02-10},
	langid = {english},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/jae.2958},
}

@article{hanson_leviathans_2021,
	title = {Leviathan’s Latent Dimensions: Measuring State Capacity for Comparative Political Research},
	volume = {83},
	issn = {0022-3816},
	url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/715066},
	doi = {10.1086/715066},
	shorttitle = {Leviathan’s Latent Dimensions},
	abstract = {State capacity is a core concept in political science research, and it is widely recognized that state institutions exert considerable influence on outcomes such as economic development, civil conflict, democratic consolidation, and international security. Yet researchers across these fields of inquiry face common problems involved in conceptualizing and measuring state capacity. In this article, we examine these conceptual issues, identify three core dimensions of state capacity, and develop the expectation that they are mutually supporting and interlinked. We then use Bayesian latent variable analysis to estimate state capacity at the conjunction of indicators related to these dimensions. We find strong interrelationships between the three dimensions and produce a new, general-purpose measure of state capacity with demonstrated validity for use in a wide range of empirical inquiries. It is hoped that this project will provide effective guidance and tools for researchers studying the causes and consequences of state capacity.},
	pages = {1495--1510},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of Politics},
	author = {Hanson, Jonathan K. and Sigman, Rachel},
	urldate = {2023-02-10},
	date = {2021-10},
	note = {Publisher: The University of Chicago Press},
	keywords = {Bayesian statistics, latent variable analysis, measurement, state capacity},
}

@article{egerod_competitive_2022,
	title = {Competitive lobbying in the influence production process and the use of spatial econometrics in lobbying research},
	volume = {191},
	issn = {1573-7101},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-022-00962-w},
	doi = {10.1007/s11127-022-00962-w},
	abstract = {Much of the lobbying process is inherently competitive: when lobbyists with opposing goals attempt to move outcomes in their preferred direction, successful lobbying by one actor will disadvantage opposing actors. This article theorizes and quantifies the indirect form of influence that competing lobbying actors exert on each other. While existing theories of competitive lobbying have focused on legislation, we argue that all stages of the lobbying process involve competition. Our findings make two contributions to the study of lobbying influence. First, using spatial econometrics, we present the first estimates of how the success of one lobbying actor is shaped by the lobbying activities of opposing actors. Second, we study competition in three diverse empirical settings that capture three different stages of the lobbying process: (1) lobbying camps favoring opposite legislative outcomes in five European countries, (2) {US} lobbying firms competing over client resources, and (3) corporations competing for administrative trade barriers in 19 World Trade Organization member countries. The results reveal important insights about how interdependence among lobbyists conditions their effectiveness. Our application of spatial techniques to model interdependence between actors is useful for all scholars who want to take competitive or collaborative diffusion mechanisms into account in studies of lobbying and public policy.},
	pages = {193--215},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Public Choice},
	shortjournal = {Public Choice},
	author = {Egerod, Benjamin C. K. and Junk, Wiebke Marie},
	urldate = {2023-02-10},
	date = {2022-04-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{carroll_using_2016,
	title = {Using item response theory to improve measurement in strategic management research: An application to corporate social responsibility},
	volume = {37},
	issn = {1097-0266},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/smj.2463},
	doi = {10.1002/smj.2463},
	shorttitle = {Using item response theory to improve measurement in strategic management research},
	abstract = {Research summary: This article uses item response theory ({IRT}) to advance strategic management research, focusing on an application to corporate social responsibility ({CSR}). {IRT} explicitly models firms' and individuals' observable actions in order to measure unobserved, latent characteristics. {IRT} models have helped researchers improve measures in numerous disciplines. To demonstrate their potential in strategic management, we show how the method improves on a key measure of corporate social responsibility and corporate social performance ({CSP}), the {KLD} Index, by creating what we term D-{SOCIAL}-{KLD} scores, and associated estimates of their accuracy, from the underlying data. We show, for instance, that firms such as Apple may not be as “good” as previously thought, while firms such as Walmart may perform better than typically believed. We also show that the D-{SOCIAL}-{KLD} measure outperforms the {KLD} Index and factor analysis in predicting new {CSR}-related activity. Managerial summary: Corporate social responsibility ({CSR}) continues to grow in importance among the press, political activists, managers, analysts, and investors, yet measurement techniques have not kept up. We show that the most common approach for measuring {CSR}—adding up observable traits—is fundamentally flawed, even if these traits accurately capture {CSR}-related behavior. We introduce an improved measurement technique that treats these traits as test questions that are differentially weighted, so that “hard” {CSR} activities affect a company's score more than “easy” {CSR} activities. This approach produces a measure that offers a more reliable comparison of firms than standard measures. Our approach has a number of additional advantages, including differentiating firms that receive identical scores on an additive scale and accounting for how {CSR}-related behavior has evolved over time. Anybody who cares about {CSR} should consider using our measure (available at www.socialscores.org) as the basis for analyzing firms' {CSR}. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.},
	pages = {66--85},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Strategic Management Journal},
	author = {Carroll, Robert J. and Primo, David M. and Richter, Brian K.},
	urldate = {2023-02-10},
	date = {2016},
	langid = {english},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/smj.2463},
	keywords = {Bayesian estimation, corporate social performance, corporate social responsibility, item response theory, measurement},
}

@article{caggiano_global_nodate-1,
	title = {Global Financial Uncertainty},
	volume = {n/a},
	issn = {1099-1255},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jae.2958},
	doi = {10.1002/jae.2958},
	abstract = {We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty ({GFU}) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models global, regional, and country-specific factors. We quantify the impact of {GFU} shocks on global output with a {VAR} analysis that achieves set-identification via a combination of narrative, sign, ratio, and correlation restrictions. We find that the contraction in world output during the Great Recession would have been 13\% milder in absence of {GFU} shocks. We also find support for a global finance uncertainty multiplier: the more global financial conditions deteriorate after a {GFU} shock, the larger the world output contraction is.},
	issue = {n/a},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Applied Econometrics},
	author = {Caggiano, Giovanni and Castelnuovo, Efrem},
	urldate = {2023-02-10},
	langid = {english},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/jae.2958},
}

@online{noauthor_inbox_nodate,
	title = {Inbox (3) - rmk7@nyu.edu - New York University Mail},
	url = {https://mail.google.com/mail/u/1/#inbox},
	urldate = {2023-02-09},
}

@online{clayton_correcting_nodate,
	title = {Correcting Measurement Error Bias in Conjoint Survey Experiments},
	author = {Clayton, Katherine and Horiuchi, Yusaku and Kaufman, Aaron R. and King, Gary and Komisarchik, Mayya},
}

@online{noauthor_intuitive_nodate,
	title = {Intuitive Joint Priors for Bayesian Linear Multilevel Models: The R2D2M2 prior},
	url = {https://ar5iv.labs.arxiv.org/html/2208.07132},
	shorttitle = {Intuitive Joint Priors for Bayesian Linear Multilevel Models},
	abstract = {The training of high-dimensional regression models on comparably sparse data is an important yet complicated topic, especially when there are many more model parameters than observations in the data. From a Bayesian pe…},
	titleaddon = {ar5iv},
	urldate = {2023-02-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@misc{hoffmann_scalable_2023,
	title = {Scalable Gaussian Process Inference with Stan},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2301.08836},
	abstract = {Gaussian processes ({GPs}) are sophisticated distributions to model functional data. Whilst theoretically appealing, they are computationally cumbersome except for small datasets. We implement two methods for scaling {GP} inference in Stan: First, a general sparse approximation using a directed acyclic dependency graph. Second, a fast, exact method for regularly spaced data modeled by {GPs} with stationary kernels using the fast Fourier transform. Based on benchmark experiments, we offer guidance for practitioners to decide between different methods and parameterizations. We consider two real-world examples to illustrate the package. The implementation follows Stan's design and exposes performant inference through a familiar interface. Full posterior inference for ten thousand data points is feasible on a laptop in less than 20 seconds.},
	number = {{arXiv}:2301.08836},
	publisher = {{arXiv}},
	author = {Hoffmann, Till and Onnela, Jukka-Pekka},
	urldate = {2023-01-31},
	date = {2023-01-20},
	eprinttype = {arxiv},
	eprint = {2301.08836 [stat]},
	keywords = {Statistics - Computation, Statistics - Methodology},
}

@article{bialek_vicious_2023,
	title = {The vicious cycle that stalls statistical revolution},
	rights = {2023 Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01515-3},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-022-01515-3},
	abstract = {Two publications have called for the redefinition of statistical significance as 0.005, or justification of the alpha. We argue that these papers expose a vicious cycle: scientists do not adopt recommendations because they are not standard, and they are not standard because few scientists adopt them. We call on journals and preregistration platforms to mandate alpha-level statements.},
	pages = {1--3},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Białek, Michał and Misiak, Michal and Dziekan, Martyna},
	urldate = {2023-01-31},
	date = {2023-01-23},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Human behaviour, Numerical data, Research management},
}

@article{berinsky_publication_2021,
	title = {Publication Biases in Replication Studies},
	volume = {29},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/abs/publication-biases-in-replication-studies/EA053746A49877FA119856FD05BE58D7},
	doi = {10.1017/pan.2020.34},
	abstract = {One of the strongest findings across the sciences is that publication bias occurs. Of particular note is a “file drawer bias” where statistically significant results are privileged over nonsignificant results. Recognition of this bias, along with increased calls for “open science,” has led to an emphasis on replication studies. Yet, few have explored publication bias and its consequences in replication studies. We offer a model of the publication process involving an initial study and a replication. We use the model to describe three types of publication biases: (1) file drawer bias, (2) a “repeat study” bias against the publication of replication studies, and (3) a “gotcha bias” where replication results that run contrary to a prior study are more likely to be published. We estimate the model’s parameters with a vignette experiment conducted with political science professors teaching at Ph.D. granting institutions in the United States. We find evidence of all three types of bias, although those explicitly involving replication studies are notably smaller. This bodes well for the replication movement. That said, the aggregation of all of the biases increases the number of false positives in a literature. We conclude by discussing a path for future work on publication biases.},
	pages = {370--384},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Berinsky, Adam J. and Druckman, James N. and Yamamoto, Teppei},
	urldate = {2023-01-25},
	date = {2021-07},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
	keywords = {conjoint experiment, file drawer bias, open science, publication bias, replication studies},
}

@misc{abadie_synthetic_2022,
	title = {Synthetic Controls in Action},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2203.06279},
	abstract = {In this article we propose a set of simple principles to guide empirical practice in synthetic control studies. The proposed principles follow from formal properties of synthetic control estimators, and pertain to the nature, implications, and prevention of over-fitting biases within a synthetic control framework, to the interpretability of the results, and to the availability of validation exercises. We discuss and visually demonstrate the relevance of the proposed principles under a variety of data configurations.},
	number = {{arXiv}:2203.06279},
	publisher = {{arXiv}},
	author = {Abadie, Alberto and Vives-i-Bastida, Jaume},
	urldate = {2023-01-19},
	date = {2022-03-11},
	eprinttype = {arxiv},
	eprint = {2203.06279 [econ, stat]},
	keywords = {Economics - Econometrics, Statistics - Methodology},
}

@article{geman_science_2016,
	title = {Science in the age of selfies},
	volume = {113},
	url = {https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1609793113},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1609793113},
	pages = {9384--9387},
	number = {34},
	journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Geman, Donald and Geman, Stuart},
	urldate = {2023-01-17},
	date = {2016-08-23},
	note = {Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
}

@article{liu_gender_2023,
	title = {Gender inequality and self-publication are common among academic editors},
	rights = {2023 The Author(s)},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01498-1},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-022-01498-1},
	abstract = {Scientific editors shape the content of academic journals and set standards for their fields. Yet, the degree to which the gender makeup of editors reflects that of scientists, and the rate at which editors publish in their own journals, are not entirely understood. Here, we use algorithmic tools to infer the gender of 81,000 editors serving more than 1,000 journals and 15 disciplines over five decades. Only 26\% of authors in our dataset are women, and we find even fewer women among editors (14\%) and editors-in-chief (8\%). Career length explains the gender gap among editors, but not editors-in-chief. Moreover, by analysing the publication records of 20,000 editors, we find that 12\% publish at least one-fifth, and 6\% publish at least one-third, of their papers in the journal they edit. Editors-in-chief tend to self-publish at a higher rate. Finally, compared with women, men have a higher increase in the rate at which they publish in a journal soon after becoming its editor.},
	pages = {1--12},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Liu, Fengyuan and Holme, Petter and Chiesa, Matteo and {AlShebli}, Bedoor and Rahwan, Talal},
	urldate = {2023-01-17},
	date = {2023-01-16},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Scientific community, Social sciences},
}

@online{noauthor_neither_nodate,
	title = {Neither Public nor Private: Egypt Without a Viable Engine for Growth},
	url = {https://timep.org/commentary/analysis/neither-public-nor-private-egypt-without-a-viable-engine-for-growth/},
	shorttitle = {Neither Public nor Private},
	abstract = {The {IMF}’s newest loan program finally begins to address major gaps in the past several years of its engagement in Egypt, trying to restrict waste and graft while getting specific about social protection targets. It also includes a long overdue and welcome condition that requires military companies to play by the same rules as the private sector. Nonetheless, the {IMF} appears unrealistic about the coming pain, estimating just 14 percent inflation in the coming year. They are also likely to be unrealistic about how quickly growth can be achieved. It is not just the private sector that will not grow in the near term due to the many deterrents facing Egypt’s business community.},
	titleaddon = {{TIMEP}},
	urldate = {2023-01-17},
	langid = {english},
}

@online{england_egypt_2023,
	title = {Egypt vows to cut military’s outsized role in economy under {IMF} bailout},
	url = {https://www.ft.com/content/0ab59ecb-da0b-42d9-a5da-35674c001e28},
	abstract = {Al-Sisi regime agrees to reforms over state ownership in the face of financial crisis},
	author = {England, Andrew},
	urldate = {2023-01-17},
	date = {2023-01-10},
	langid = {british},
}

@book{kubinec_making_2023,
	title = {Making Democracy Safe for Business: Corporate Politics During the Arab Uprisings},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Kubinec, Robert},
	date = {2023},
}

@article{pan_does_2023,
	title = {Does a firm’s lobbying activity respond to its peers’ lobbying activity?},
	issn = {1573-7101},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-022-01033-w},
	doi = {10.1007/s11127-022-01033-w},
	abstract = {Classic theoretical works of lobbying emphasise the importance of competition among interest groups to compete for resources, but empirical evidence of competitive forces in firms’ lobbying activities is limited. This study investigates how firms’ lobbying activities respond to peer lobbying. We show that firms increase their lobbying as their peers increase their lobbying. Such positive effects are stronger for larger firms and firms in more regulated industries. Aside from actively lobbying firms, non-lobbying firms are also more likely to start lobbying when their peers increase their lobbying. Lastly, we observe that Republican-leaning (Democrat-leaning) firms respond to the increase in lobbying by other Republican-leaning (Democrat-leaning) firms.},
	journaltitle = {Public Choice},
	shortjournal = {Public Choice},
	author = {Pan, Wei-Fong},
	urldate = {2023-01-13},
	date = {2023-01-07},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {D22, D72, D78, L20, Peer effects, Political lobbying, Rent seeking},
}

@article{pan_does_2023-1,
	title = {Does a firm’s lobbying activity respond to its peers’ lobbying activity?},
	issn = {1573-7101},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-022-01033-w},
	doi = {10.1007/s11127-022-01033-w},
	abstract = {Classic theoretical works of lobbying emphasise the importance of competition among interest groups to compete for resources, but empirical evidence of competitive forces in firms’ lobbying activities is limited. This study investigates how firms’ lobbying activities respond to peer lobbying. We show that firms increase their lobbying as their peers increase their lobbying. Such positive effects are stronger for larger firms and firms in more regulated industries. Aside from actively lobbying firms, non-lobbying firms are also more likely to start lobbying when their peers increase their lobbying. Lastly, we observe that Republican-leaning (Democrat-leaning) firms respond to the increase in lobbying by other Republican-leaning (Democrat-leaning) firms.},
	journaltitle = {Public Choice},
	shortjournal = {Public Choice},
	author = {Pan, Wei-Fong},
	urldate = {2023-01-13},
	date = {2023-01-07},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {D22, D72, D78, L20, Peer effects, Political lobbying, Rent seeking},
}

@article{noauthor_retraction_2023,
	title = {Retraction of: Growing up in a Recession},
	issn = {0034-6527},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac085},
	doi = {10.1093/restud/rdac085},
	shorttitle = {Retraction of},
	abstract = {This is a retraction of: Paola Giuliano, Antonio Spilimbergo, Growing up in a Recession, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 81, Issue 2, April 2014, Pages 787–817, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdt040The authors and editorial team are retracting this article because the original findings cannot be replicated, likely as a result of an inadvertent coding error. While the original codes and data sets are no longer available, new analysis with a markedly similar data set does not support the original results.},
	pages = {rdac085},
	journaltitle = {The Review of Economic Studies},
	shortjournal = {The Review of Economic Studies},
	urldate = {2023-01-11},
	date = {2023-01-11},
}

@article{hertog_locked_2022,
	title = {Locked Out of Development: Insiders and Outsiders in Arab Capitalism},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/locked-out-of-development/67FCB37D2CA617AE715C6EC4A7F4753F},
	doi = {10.1017/9781009042444},
	shorttitle = {Locked Out of Development},
	abstract = {Cambridge Core - Economic Development and Growth - Locked Out of Development},
	journaltitle = {Elements in the Politics of Development},
	author = {Hertog, Steffen},
	urldate = {2022-12-30},
	date = {2022-12},
	langid = {english},
	note = {{ISBN}: 9781009042444 9781009045575
Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
}

@misc{stommes_reliability_2021,
	title = {On the reliability of published findings using the regression discontinuity design in political science},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2109.14526},
	abstract = {The regression discontinuity ({RD}) design offers identification of causal effects under weak assumptions, earning it the position as a standard method in modern political science research. But identification does not necessarily imply that the causal effects can be estimated accurately with limited data. In this paper, we highlight that estimation is particularly challenging with the {RD} design and investigate how these challenges manifest themselves in the empirical literature. We collect all {RD}-based findings published in top political science journals from 2009--2018. The findings exhibit pathological features; estimates tend to bunch just above the conventional level of statistical significance. A reanalysis of all studies with available data suggests that researcher's discretion is not a major driver of these pathological features, but researchers tend to use inappropriate methods for inference, rendering standard errors artificially small. A retrospective power analysis reveals that most of these studies were underpowered to detect all but large effects. The issues we uncover, combined with well-documented selection pressures in academic publishing, cause concern that many published findings using the {RD} design are exaggerated, if not entirely spurious.},
	number = {{arXiv}:2109.14526},
	publisher = {{arXiv}},
	author = {Stommes, Drew and Aronow, P. M. and Sävje, Fredrik},
	urldate = {2022-12-28},
	date = {2021-09-29},
	eprinttype = {arxiv},
	eprint = {2109.14526 [stat]},
	keywords = {Statistics - Methodology},
}

@online{noauthor_statistical_nodate,
	title = {Statistical Power for Estimating Treatment Effects Using Difference-in-Differences and Comparative Interrupted Time Series Estimators With Variation in Treatment Timing - Peter Z. Schochet, 2022},
	url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.3102/10769986211070625},
	urldate = {2022-12-28},
}

@article{cattaneo_regression_2022,
	title = {Regression Discontinuity Designs},
	volume = {14},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-051520-021409},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-economics-051520-021409},
	abstract = {The regression discontinuity ({RD}) design is one of the most widely used nonexperimental methods for causal inference and program evaluation. Over the last two decades, statistical and econometric methods for {RD} analysis have expanded and matured, and there is now a large number of methodological results for {RD} identification, estimation, inference, and validation. We offer a curated review of this methodological literature organized around the two most popular frameworks for the analysis and interpretation of {RD} designs: the continuity framework and the local randomization framework. For each framework, we discuss three main topics: (a) designs and parameters, focusing on different types of {RD} settings and treatment effects of interest; (b) estimation and inference, presenting the most popular methods based on local polynomial regression and methods for the analysis of experiments, as well as refinements, extensions, and alternatives; and (c) validation and falsification, summarizing an array of mostly empirical approaches to support the validity of {RD} designs in practice.},
	pages = {821--851},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Economics},
	author = {Cattaneo, Matias D. and Titiunik, Rocío},
	urldate = {2022-12-28},
	date = {2022},
	note = {\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-051520-021409},
}

@article{bertrand_cost_2018,
	title = {The cost of political connections},
	volume = {22},
	pages = {849--876},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Review of Finance},
	author = {Bertrand, Marianne and Kramarz, Francis and Schoar, Antoinette and Thesmar, David},
	date = {2018},
	note = {Publisher: Oxford University Press},
}

@article{brutger_abstraction_nodate,
	title = {Abstraction and Detail in Experimental Design},
	volume = {n/a},
	issn = {1540-5907},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajps.12710},
	doi = {10.1111/ajps.12710},
	abstract = {Political scientists designing experiments often face the question of how abstract or detailed their experimental stimuli should be. Typically, this question is framed in terms of trade-offs relating to experimental control and generalizability: the more context introduced into studies, the less control, and the more difficulty generalizing the results. Yet, we have reason to question this trade-off, and there is relatively little systematic evidence to rely on when calibrating the degree of abstraction in studies. We make two contributions. First, we provide a theoretical framework that identifies and considers the consequences of three dimensions of abstraction in experimental design: situational hypotheticality, actor identity, and contextual detail. Second, we replicate and extend three survey experiments, varying these levels of abstraction. We find no evidence that situational hypotheticality substantively changes results in any of our studies, but do find that increased contextual detail dampens treatment effects, and that the salience of actor identities moderates results in our endorsement experiment.},
	issue = {n/a},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Brutger, Ryan and Kertzer, Joshua D. and Renshon, Jonathan and Tingley, Dustin and Weiss, Chagai M.},
	urldate = {2022-12-28},
	langid = {english},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ajps.12710},
}

@article{leavitt_identification_nodate,
	title = {Identification and Inference for Difference-in-Differences under Uncertainty in Counterfactual Trends},
	abstract = {An attractive feature of Difference-in-Differences ({DID}) is that it identifies causal effects without imposing probability models on potential outcomes. However, {DID}’s key assumption of parallel trends poses problems for inference: Counterfactual uncertainty, due to the inability to observe counterfactual outcomes, is hard to quantify since {DID} is based on an assumption about average changes in counterfactual outcomes over time, not an as-if randomized assumption. Hence, scholars produce standard errors and p-values that are too small since they reflect only sampling uncertainty due to the inability to observe all units in a population. To remedy this problem, I derive an Empirical Bayes’ ({EB}) procedure that relaxes parallel trends by invoking a more flexible assumption of detrended exchangeability. {EB} inference under this assumption statistically accounts for both sampling and counterfactual uncertainty, the latter of which manifests as a distribution on the extent to which parallel trends (or another counterfactual trend assumption) is violated. The formal results yield the intuitive interpretation that 95\% {EB} uncertainty intervals have correct coverage when the violation of assumed counterfactual trends is no more than twice the standard deviation of observable trends. I apply the overall method to a study on the effect of terrorist attacks on electoral outcomes and contrast the method with randomization-based alternatives.},
	author = {Leavitt, Thomas},
	langid = {english},
}

@online{noauthor_puzzle-named-bengsezen_nodate,
	title = {Puzzle-Named-{BengSezen}},
	url = {https://cen.acs.org/articles/89/i32/Puzzle-Named-BengSezen.html},
	titleaddon = {Chemical \& Engineering News},
	urldate = {2022-12-28},
	langid = {american},
}

@article{lebel_fearing_2011,
	title = {Fearing the Future of Empirical Psychology: Bem's (2011) Evidence of Psi as a Case Study of Deficiencies in Modal Research Practice},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {1089-2680},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1037/a0025172},
	doi = {10.1037/a0025172},
	shorttitle = {Fearing the Future of Empirical Psychology},
	abstract = {In this methodological commentary, we use Bem's (2011) recent article reporting experimental evidence for psi as a case study for discussing important deficiencies in modal research practice in empirical psychology. We focus on (a) overemphasis on conceptual rather than close replication, (b) insufficient attention to verifying the soundness of measurement and experimental procedures, and (c) flawed implementation of null hypothesis significance testing. We argue that these deficiencies contribute to weak method-relevant beliefs that, in conjunction with overly strong theory-relevant beliefs, lead to a systemic and pernicious bias in the interpretation of data that favors a researcher's theory. Ultimately, this interpretation bias increases the risk of drawing incorrect conclusions about human psychology. Our analysis points to concrete recommendations for improving research practice in empirical psychology. We recommend (a) a stronger emphasis on close replication, (b) routinely verifying the integrity of measurement instruments and experimental procedures, and (c) using stronger, more diagnostic forms of null hypothesis testing.},
	pages = {371--379},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Review of General Psychology},
	author = {{LeBel}, Etienne P. and Peters, Kurt R.},
	urldate = {2022-12-28},
	date = {2011-12-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Inc},
}

@article{weisshaar_100_2022,
	title = {100 Years of Sex and Gender in Social Forces},
	volume = {101},
	issn = {0037-7732},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/soac090},
	doi = {10.1093/sf/soac090},
	pages = {546--557},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Social Forces},
	shortjournal = {Social Forces},
	author = {Weisshaar, Katherine and Casey, Patrick},
	urldate = {2022-12-27},
	date = {2022-12-01},
}

@article{bhandari_social_2022,
	title = {Social, Formal, and Political Determinants of Trade Under Weak Rule of Law: Experimental Evidence from Senegalese Firms},
	issn = {0010-4140},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140221089648},
	doi = {10.1177/00104140221089648},
	shorttitle = {Social, Formal, and Political Determinants of Trade Under Weak Rule of Law},
	abstract = {How do firms ensure secure exchange when the rule of law is weak and contracting institutions privilege the politically connected? In developing countries, firms may use social, formal, or political heuristics when selecting business partners, but how these factors jointly impact exchange remains understudied. In this article, I develop these theoretical mechanisms and test their impact with a conjoint experiment administered to 2389 formal and informal firms in Senegal. I find evidence in support of all three theories: To varying degrees, social, state, and political factors simultaneously impact firms? sense of deal security and likelihood of exchange. The results demonstrate the substantial influence of formal predictors of exchange even in an overwhelmingly informal business environment, and also establish the countervailing effects of political connections on trade. These findings suggest that firms in developing countries must contend with an intricate political calculus to ensure their growth.},
	pages = {00104140221089648},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Bhandari, Abhit},
	urldate = {2022-12-27},
	date = {2022-06-12},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Inc},
}

@book{mazaheri_oil_2016,
	title = {Oil booms and business busts: why resource wealth hurts entrepreneurs in the developing world},
	shorttitle = {Oil booms and business busts},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Mazaheri, Nimah},
	date = {2016},
}

@report{hertog_late_2016,
	title = {Late populism: State distributional regimes and economic conflict after the arab uprisings},
	url = {http://pomeps.org/2016/06/02/late-populism-state-distributional-regimes-and-economic-conflict-after-the-arab-uprisings/},
	institution = {Project on Middle East Political Science},
	type = {Memo},
	author = {Hertog, Steffen},
	date = {2016-05-03},
}

@article{mazaheri_no_2018,
	title = {No Arab Bourgeoisie, No Democracy? The Entrepreneurial Middle Class and Democratic Attitudes since the Arab Spring},
	volume = {50},
	issn = {0010-4159},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/26532702},
	shorttitle = {No Arab Bourgeoisie, No Democracy?},
	abstract = {This study examines support for democracy among a key subgroup of the Arab middle class—the small business community—before and after the start of the Arab Spring. Although historically cast as anti-democratic, we provide evidence that small business owners became more pro-democratic after the start of the Arab Spring. Yet their support for democracy varies according to the presence and type of political upheaval that occurred in their country. When confronted by a governmental crisis or regime breakdown, small business owners are less supportive of democracy than their peers in more stable countries and even fellow citizens. Our findings stem from survey data of more than 3,000 small business owners across fourteen Arab countries, in addition to 50 interviews conducted in Jordan.},
	pages = {523--543},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Politics},
	author = {Mazaheri, Nimah and Monroe, Steve L.},
	urldate = {2022-12-27},
	date = {2018},
	note = {Publisher: Comparative Politics, Ph.D. Programs in Political Science, City University of New York},
}

@article{ruckteschler_politics_2022,
	title = {Politics of trade protection in an autocracy: Evidence from an {EU} tariff liberalization in Morocco},
	volume = {71},
	issn = {0176-2680},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268021000598},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102063},
	shorttitle = {Politics of trade protection in an autocracy},
	abstract = {Although non-tariff measures ({NTMs}) have surpassed tariffs as the most prevalent instrument of trade protection globally, our knowledge of what drives these {NTMs} is extremely limited. This paper sheds light on the political determinants of non-tariff protection using a rich empirical setting in Morocco. Taking advantage of a bilateral {EU}-Morocco trade agreement that resulted in an across-the-board tariff cut and a subsequent rise in {NTMs}, we use a difference-in-differences regression framework to show that sectors with close prior political connections to the royal family received disproportionately higher levels of non-tariff protection after the {EU} Agreement than unconnected sectors. We also demonstrate that, in the wake of the {EU}-induced tariff cut, connected sectors were mainly compensated through technical barriers to trade that depend on administrative oversight and are vulnerable to political influence.},
	pages = {102063},
	journaltitle = {European Journal of Political Economy},
	shortjournal = {European Journal of Political Economy},
	author = {Ruckteschler, Christian and Malik, Adeel and Eibl, Ferdinand},
	urldate = {2022-12-27},
	date = {2022-01-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Corruption, Free trade agreements, Middle East and North Africa, Non-tariff measures, Politically connected firms, Trade liberalization},
}

@misc{kubinec_taxes_2022,
	title = {Taxes in the Time of Revolution: An Experimental Test of the Rentier State during Algeria's Hirak},
	url = {https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/hu3vq/},
	doi = {10.31235/osf.io/hu3vq},
	shorttitle = {Taxes in the Time of Revolution},
	abstract = {In this paper we examine the rentier thesis that a state's control over oil resources should help it resist calls for democratization. During Algeria's mass mobilization for regime change known as the Hirak in 2019, we implemented an interactive experimental treatment providing specific information about the Algerian government's high subsidies of gasoline and low value-added taxes with regional comparisons. Based on a sample of 5,968 Algerians, we find that when Algerians learn about their country's relatively high level of fuel subsidies and low level of taxes, their assessments of the government's performance improves; however, we do not see similar patterns for respondents' expressed intention to join the protests due to treatment heterogeneity defined by respondent wealth. Wealthier respondents report lower protest intentions upon learning about the scope of the rentier state, whereas poorer respondents report much higher protest intentions upon receiving the treatment. As a result, we find that the rentier state may be capable of improving perceptions of regime performance, yet still permit mass mobilization if there are class differences in the perceived benefits derived from redistribution.},
	publisher = {{SocArXiv}},
	author = {Kubinec, Robert and Milner, Helen},
	urldate = {2022-12-23},
	date = {2022-04-27},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Comparative Politics, Economics, Political Economy, Political Science, Social and Behavioral Sciences},
}

@article{de_la_cuesta_oil_2019,
	title = {Oil and aid revenue produce equal demands for accountability as taxes in Ghana and Uganda},
	volume = {116},
	pages = {17717--17722},
	number = {36},
	journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	shortjournal = {{PNAS}},
	author = {de la Cuesta, Brandon and Milner, Helen V. and Nielson, Daniel L. and Knack, Stephen F.},
	date = {2019-09-03},
	keywords = {rentier},
}

@book{ashworth_theory_2021,
	title = {Theory and Credibility},
	isbn = {978-0-691-21382-8},
	url = {https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691213828/theory-and-credibility},
	abstract = {A clear and comprehensive framework for bridging the widening gap between theorists and empiricists in social science},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press: Princeton, {NJ}},
	author = {Ashworth, Scott and Berry, Christopher R. and Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan},
	urldate = {2022-12-22},
	date = {2021-07-20},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{gerring_mere_2012,
	title = {Mere Description},
	volume = {42},
	issn = {0007-1234, 1469-2112},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/mere-description/833643C6242D3A45D48BAAC3EF0C33D0},
	doi = {10.1017/S0007123412000130},
	abstract = {This article attempts to reformulate and resuscitate the seemingly prosaic methodological task of description, which is often derided in favour of causal analysis. First, the problem of definition is addressed: what does this category of analysis (‘description’) refer to? Secondly, a taxonomy of descriptive arguments is offered, emphasizing the diversity contained within this genre of empirical analysis. Thirdly, the demise of description within political science is charted over the past century, with comparisons to other disciplines. Fourthly, it is argued that the task of description ought to be approached independently, not merely as a handmaiden of causal theories. Fifthly, the methodological difficulties of descriptive inference are addressed. Finally, fruitful research areas within the rubric of description are reviewed.},
	pages = {721--746},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {British Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Gerring, John},
	urldate = {2022-12-22},
	date = {2012-10},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
}

@misc{engzell_universe_2022,
	title = {A Universe of Uncertainty Hiding in Plain Sight},
	url = {https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/95q8w/},
	doi = {10.31235/osf.io/95q8w},
	abstract = {A recent study by Breznau et al. ["Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty" {PNAS}, 119(44) (2022)] raises concerns about the reliability of social science. I raise four concerns about its interpretation: 1) The study tests not one but several hypotheses; 2) The study successfully replicates a null finding; 3) Much variation is within results from a given team; 4) The data are inadequate for the hypothesis. Progress in social science requires attention to theory, measurement and causal inference in addition to variability of results.},
	publisher = {{SocArXiv}},
	author = {Engzell, Per},
	urldate = {2022-12-21},
	date = {2022-12-21},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Social and Behavioral Sciences},
}

@online{noauthor_visualize_nodate,
	title = {visualize cran package downloads shiny app - Google Search},
	url = {https://www.google.com/search?q=visualize+cran+package+downloads+shiny+app&rlz=1C5GCEM_en&oq=visualize+cran+package+downloads+shiny+app&aqs=chrome..69i57j33i160l2j33i299.7059j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8},
	urldate = {2022-12-20},
}

@article{habyarimana_why_2007,
	title = {Why Does Ethnic Diversity Undermine Public Goods Provision?},
	volume = {101},
	issn = {1537-5943, 0003-0554},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/why-does-ethnic-diversity-undermine-public-goods-provision/36C285D07DC0DE604BFC123F53060DF6},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055407070499},
	abstract = {A large and growing literature links high levels of ethnic diversity to low levels of public goods provision. Yet although the empirical connection between ethnic heterogeneity and the underprovision of public goods is widely accepted, there is little consensus on the specific mechanisms through which this relationship operates. We identify three families of mechanisms that link diversity to public goods provision—what we term “preferences,” “technology,” and “strategy selection” mechanisms—and run a series of experimental games that permit us to compare the explanatory power of distinct mechanisms within each of these three families. Results from games conducted with a random sample of 300 subjects from a slum neighborhood of Kampala, Uganda, suggest that successful public goods provision in homogenous ethnic communities can be attributed to a strategy selection mechanism: in similar settings, co-ethnics play cooperative equilibria, whereas non-co-ethnics do not. In addition, we find evidence for a technology mechanism: co-ethnics are more closely linked on social networks and thus plausibly better able to support cooperation through the threat of social sanction. We find no evidence for prominent preference mechanisms that emphasize the commonality of tastes within ethnic groups or a greater degree of altruism toward co-ethnics, and only weak evidence for technology mechanisms that focus on the impact of shared ethnicity on the productivity of teams.},
	pages = {709--725},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Habyarimana, James and Humphreys, Macartan and Posner, Daniel N. and Weinstein, Jeremy M.},
	urldate = {2022-12-19},
	date = {2007-11},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
}

@article{cheng_capturing_2022,
	title = {Capturing the {COVID}-19 Crisis through Public Health and Social Measures Data Science},
	volume = {9},
	rights = {2022 The Author(s)},
	issn = {2052-4463},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-022-01616-8},
	doi = {10.1038/s41597-022-01616-8},
	abstract = {In response to {COVID}-19, governments worldwide are implementing public health and social measures ({PHSM}) that substantially impact many areas beyond public health. The new field of {PHSM} data science collects, structures, and disseminates data on {PHSM}; here, we report the main achievements, challenges, and focus areas of this novel field of research.},
	pages = {520},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Scientific Data},
	shortjournal = {Sci Data},
	author = {Cheng, Cindy and Desvars-Larrive, Amélie and Ebbinghaus, Bernhard and Hale, Thomas and Howes, Alexandra and Lehner, Lukas and Messerschmidt, Luca and Nika, Angeliki and Penson, Steve and Petherick, Anna and Xu, Hanmeng and Zapf, Alexander John and Zhang, Yuxi and Zweig, Sophia Alison},
	urldate = {2022-12-11},
	date = {2022-08-26},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Number: 1
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Government, Politics, Research data, Research management, Society},
}

@article{hormann_dynamic_2015,
	title = {Dynamic functional principal components},
	volume = {77},
	issn = {1369-7412},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/24774739},
	abstract = {We address the problem of dimension reduction for time series of functional data (Xt : t ∈ ℤ). Such functional time series frequently arise, for example, when a continuous time process is segmented into some smaller natural units, such as days. Then each Xt represents one intraday curve. We argue that functional principal component analysis, though a key technique in the field and a benchmark for any competitor, does not provide an adequate dimension reduction in a time series setting. Functional principal component analysis indeed is a static procedure which ignores the essential information that is provided by the serial dependence structure of the functional data under study. Therefore, inspired by Brillinger's theory of dynamic principal components, we propose a dynamic version of functional principal component analysis which is based on a frequency domain approach. By means of a simulation study and an empirical illustration, we show the considerable improvement that the dynamic approach entails when compared with the usual static procedure.},
	pages = {319--348},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Statistical Methodology)},
	author = {Hörmann, Siegfried and Kidziński, Łukasz and Hallin, Marc},
	urldate = {2022-12-10},
	date = {2015},
	note = {Publisher: [Royal Statistical Society, Wiley]},
}

@article{hormann_dynamic_2015-1,
	title = {Dynamic functional principal components},
	volume = {77},
	issn = {1369-7412},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/24774739},
	abstract = {We address the problem of dimension reduction for time series of functional data (Xt : t ∈ ℤ). Such functional time series frequently arise, for example, when a continuous time process is segmented into some smaller natural units, such as days. Then each Xt represents one intraday curve. We argue that functional principal component analysis, though a key technique in the field and a benchmark for any competitor, does not provide an adequate dimension reduction in a time series setting. Functional principal component analysis indeed is a static procedure which ignores the essential information that is provided by the serial dependence structure of the functional data under study. Therefore, inspired by Brillinger's theory of dynamic principal components, we propose a dynamic version of functional principal component analysis which is based on a frequency domain approach. By means of a simulation study and an empirical illustration, we show the considerable improvement that the dynamic approach entails when compared with the usual static procedure.},
	pages = {319--348},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Statistical Methodology)},
	author = {Hörmann, Siegfried and Kidziński, Łukasz and Hallin, Marc},
	urldate = {2022-12-10},
	date = {2015},
	note = {Publisher: [Royal Statistical Society, Wiley]},
}

@misc{lee_dimensional_2021,
	title = {Dimensional Analysis in Statistical Modelling},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2002.11259},
	doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2002.11259},
	abstract = {Building on recent work in statistical science, the paper presents a theory for modelling natural phenomena that unifies physical and statistical paradigms based on the underlying principle that a model must be nondimensionalizable. After all, such phenomena cannot depend on how the experimenter chooses to assess them. Yet the model itself must be comprised of quantities that can be determined theoretically or empirically. Hence, the underlying principle requires that the model represents these natural processes correctly no matter what scales and units of measurement are selected. This goal was realized for physical modelling through the celebrated theories of Buckingham and Bridgman and for statistical modellers through the invariance principle of Hunt and Stein. Building on recent research in statistical science, the paper shows how the latter can embrace and extend the former. The invariance principle is extended to encompass the Bayesian paradigm, thereby enabling an assessment of model uncertainty. The paper covers topics not ordinarily seen in statistical science regarding dimensions, scales, and units of quantities in statistical modelling. It shows the special difficulties that can arise when models involve transcendental functions, such as the logarithm which is used e.g. in likelihood analysis and is a singularity in the family of Box-Cox family of transformations. Further, it demonstrates the importance of the scale of measurement, in particular how differently modellers must handle ratio- and interval-scales},
	number = {{arXiv}:2002.11259},
	publisher = {{arXiv}},
	author = {Lee, Tae Yoon and Zidek, James V. and Heckman, Nancy},
	urldate = {2022-12-02},
	date = {2021-09-05},
	eprinttype = {arxiv},
	eprint = {2002.11259 [math, stat]},
	keywords = {62A01, 00A71, 97F70, Mathematics - Statistics Theory},
}

@article{sharma_understanding_2021,
	title = {Understanding the effectiveness of government interventions against the resurgence of {COVID}-19 in Europe},
	volume = {12},
	rights = {2021 The Author(s)},
	issn = {2041-1723},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26013-4},
	doi = {10.1038/s41467-021-26013-4},
	abstract = {European governments use non-pharmaceutical interventions ({NPIs}) to control resurging waves of {COVID}-19. However, they only have outdated estimates for how effective individual {NPIs} were in the first wave. We estimate the effectiveness of 17 {NPIs} in Europe’s second wave from subnational case and death data by introducing a flexible hierarchical Bayesian transmission model and collecting the largest dataset of {NPI} implementation dates across Europe. Business closures, educational institution closures, and gathering bans reduced transmission, but reduced it less than they did in the first wave. This difference is likely due to organisational safety measures and individual protective behaviours—such as distancing—which made various areas of public life safer and thereby reduced the effect of closing them. Specifically, we find smaller effects for closing educational institutions, suggesting that stringent safety measures made schools safer compared to the first wave. Second-wave estimates outperform previous estimates at predicting transmission in Europe’s third wave.},
	pages = {5820},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Nature Communications},
	shortjournal = {Nat Commun},
	author = {Sharma, Mrinank and Mindermann, Sören and Rogers-Smith, Charlie and Leech, Gavin and Snodin, Benedict and Ahuja, Janvi and Sandbrink, Jonas B. and Monrad, Joshua Teperowski and Altman, George and Dhaliwal, Gurpreet and Finnveden, Lukas and Norman, Alexander John and Oehm, Sebastian B. and Sandkühler, Julia Fabienne and Aitchison, Laurence and Gavenčiak, Tomáš and Mellan, Thomas and Kulveit, Jan and Chindelevitch, Leonid and Flaxman, Seth and Gal, Yarin and Mishra, Swapnil and Bhatt, Samir and Brauner, Jan Markus},
	urldate = {2022-12-01},
	date = {2021-10-05},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Number: 1
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Epidemiology},
}

@online{noauthor_inferring_nodate,
	title = {Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against {COVID}-19 {\textbar} Science},
	url = {https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.abd9338},
	urldate = {2022-12-01},
}

@article{keele_causal_2020,
	title = {The causal interpretation of estimated associations in regression models},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {2049-8470, 2049-8489},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/causal-interpretation-of-estimated-associations-in-regression-models/4488EC8925CF8F623CDE655E01268F6F},
	doi = {10.1017/psrm.2019.31},
	abstract = {A common causal identification strategy in political science is selection on observables. This strategy assumes one observes a set of covariates that is, after statistical adjustment, sufficient to make treatment status as-if random. Under adjustment methods such as matching or inverse probability weighting, coefficients for control variables are treated as nuisance parameters and are not directly estimated. This is in direct contrast to regression approaches where estimated parameters are obtained for all covariates. Analysts often find it tempting to give a causal interpretation to all the parameters in such regression models—indeed, such interpretations are often central to the proposed research design. In this paper, we ask when we can justify interpreting two or more coefficients in a regression model as causal parameters. We demonstrate that analysts must appeal to causal identification assumptions to give estimates causal interpretations. Under selection on observables, this task is complicated by the fact that more than one causal effect might be identified. We show how causal graphs provide a framework for clearly delineating which effects are presumed to be identified and thus merit a causal interpretation, and which are not. We conclude with a set of recommendations for how researchers should interpret estimates from regression models when causal inference is the goal.},
	pages = {1--13},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Political Science Research and Methods},
	author = {Keele, Luke and Stevenson, Randolph T. and Elwert, Felix},
	urldate = {2022-12-01},
	date = {2020-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
	keywords = {Causal inference},
}

@misc{hunermund_nuisance_2022,
	title = {On the Nuisance of Control Variables in Regression Analysis},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2005.10314},
	doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2005.10314},
	abstract = {Control variables are included in regression analyses to estimate the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome. In this article, we argue that the estimated effect sizes of control variables are unlikely to have a causal interpretation themselves though. This is because even valid controls are possibly endogenous and therefore represent a combination of several different causal mechanisms operating jointly on the outcome, which is hard to interpret theoretically. We recommend to refrain from reporting marginal effects of controls in regression tables and to focus exclusively on the variables of interest in the results sections of quantitative research papers. Moreover, we advise against using control variable estimates for subsequent theory building and meta-analyses.},
	number = {{arXiv}:2005.10314},
	publisher = {{arXiv}},
	author = {Hünermund, Paul and Louw, Beyers},
	urldate = {2022-12-01},
	date = {2022-09-27},
	eprinttype = {arxiv},
	eprint = {2005.10314 [econ]},
	keywords = {Economics - Econometrics},
}

@article{coppedge_methodology_2019,
	title = {The Methodology of “Varieties of Democracy” (V-Dem)1},
	volume = {143},
	issn = {0759-1063},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0759106319854989},
	doi = {10.1177/0759106319854989},
	abstract = {This article describes and discusses the new generation of methodological responses to measuring democracy and related issues generated by Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem). V-Dem is distinct in several regards in addition to its unique level of disaggregation, by the combination of: historical data extending back to 1900 and for a large selection among them to 1789 for many countries in the world; use of multiple, independent coders for each evaluative question; inter-coder reliability tests incorporated into a custom designed Bayesian item-response theory measurement model; provision of confidence bounds for all point estimates associated with expert-coded questions as well as for all indices; multiple indices reflecting varying theories of democracy; fully transparent aggregation procedures; and that all data are made freely available, including original coder-level judgments (exclusive of any personal identifying information).},
	pages = {107--133},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Bulletin of Sociological Methodology/Bulletin de Méthodologie Sociologique},
	author = {Coppedge, Michael and Gerring, John and Knutsen, Carl Henrik and Krusell, Joshua and Medzihorsky, Juraj and Pernes, Josefine and Skaaning, Svend-Erik and Stepanova, Natalia and Teorell, Jan and Tzelgov, Eitan and Wilson, Steven L. and Lindberg, Staffan I.},
	urldate = {2022-11-29},
	date = {2019-07-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Ltd},
}

@article{fariss_respect_2014,
	title = {Respect for Human Rights has Improved Over Time: Modeling the Changing Standard of Accountability},
	volume = {108},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/respect-for-human-rights-has-improved-over-time-modeling-the-changing-standard-of-accountability/0E7B51BE2CDA4A141779E594FF0F0EFF},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055414000070},
	shorttitle = {Respect for Human Rights has Improved Over Time},
	abstract = {According to indicators of political repression currently used by scholars, human rights practices have not improved over the past 35 years, despite the spread of human rights norms, better monitoring, and the increasing prevalence of electoral democracy. I argue that this empirical pattern is not an indication of stagnating human rights practices. Instead, it reflects a systematic change in the way monitors, like Amnesty International and the U.S. State Department, encounter and interpret information about abuses. The standard of accountability used to assess state behaviors becomes more stringent as monitors look harder for abuse, look in more places for abuse, and classify more acts as abuse. In this article, I present a new, theoretically informed measurement model, which generates unbiased estimates of repression using existing data. I then show that respect for human rights has improved over time and that the relationship between human rights respect and ratification of the {UN} Convention Against Torture is positive, which contradicts findings from existing research.},
	pages = {297--318},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Fariss, Christopher J.},
	urldate = {2022-11-29},
	date = {2014-05},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
}

@article{samuels_democracy_2023,
	title = {Democracy, rural inequality, and education spending},
	volume = {162},
	issn = {0305-750X},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X22003266},
	doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.106136},
	abstract = {Much research suggests democracies invest more in human capital formation than dictatorships. In particular, scholars have suggested that democracies outspend autocracies on education, due to electoral and interest group pressures. However, some democracies spend no more on education - and some spend much less - than autocracies. What explains this variation within democracies? The answer is the influence of landed agricultural elites. Urban industrial elites support human capital investment because it leads to higher rates of return even if wages increase. Yet greater education spending encourages out-migration from the countryside, reducing the supply and increasing the price of agricultural labor. Given the differential impact of education spending across economic sectors, the effect of democracy on education spending may be conditional on the power of landed elites. We test this argument in two ways. First, we run a series of time series cross-sectional regressions on data from 107 countries for the period 1970 to 2000. Second, we conduct a difference-in-difference analysis, comparing countries that democratize at high versus low levels of land inequality, for 73 countries for the same time period. Results confirm a negative relationship between the power of landed elites and investment in public education under democracy, adding important and novel insight into the sources of differences in public-goods spending and human capital investment both within across political regimes.},
	pages = {106136},
	journaltitle = {World Development},
	shortjournal = {World Development},
	author = {Samuels, David and Vargas, Thomas R.},
	urldate = {2022-11-22},
	date = {2023-02-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Democracy, Education spending, Inequality, Rural inequality, Social spending},
}

@article{constantino_personal_2022,
	title = {Personal hardship narrows the partisan gap in {COVID}-19 and climate change responses},
	volume = {119},
	url = {https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2120653119},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.2120653119},
	abstract = {The {COVID}-19 pandemic in the United States was characterized by a partisan gap. Democrats were more concerned about this novel health threat, more willing to socially distance, and more likely to support policies aimed at mitigating the spread of the virus than Republicans. In cross-sectional analyses of three nationally representative survey waves in 2020, we find that adverse experience with {COVID}-19 is associated with a narrowing of the partisan gap. The mean difference between Republicans and Democrats in concern, policy support, and behavioral intentions narrows or even disappears at high levels of self-reported adverse experience. Reported experience does not depend on party affiliation and is predicted by local {COVID}-19 incidence rates. In contrast, analyses of longitudinal data and county-level incidence rates do not show a consistent relationship among experience, partisanship, and behavior or policy support. Our findings suggest that self-reported personal experience interacts with partisanship in complex ways and may be an important channel for concern about novel threats such as the {COVID}-19 pandemic. We find consistent results for self-reported experience of extreme weather events and climate change attitudes and policy preferences, although the association between extreme weather and experience and climate change is more tenuous.},
	pages = {e2120653119},
	number = {46},
	journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Constantino, Sara M. and Cooperman, Alicia D. and Keohane, Robert O. and Weber, Elke U.},
	urldate = {2022-11-17},
	date = {2022-11-15},
	note = {Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
}

@article{dechaisemartin_two-way_2022,
	title = {Two-way fixed effects and differences-in-differences with heterogeneous treatment effects: a survey},
	issn = {1368-4221},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/ectj/utac017},
	doi = {10.1093/ectj/utac017},
	shorttitle = {Two-way fixed effects and differences-in-differences with heterogeneous treatment effects},
	abstract = {Linear regressions with period and group fixed effects are widely used to estimate policie’s effects: 26 of the 100 most cited papers published by the American Economic Review from 2015 to 2019 estimate such regressions. It has recently been shown that those regressions may produce misleading estimates if the policy’s effect is heterogeneous between groups or over time, as is often the case. This survey reviews a fast-growing literature that documents this issue and that proposes alternative estimators robust to heterogeneous effects. We use those alternative estimators to revisit Wolfers (2006a).},
	pages = {utac017},
	journaltitle = {The Econometrics Journal},
	shortjournal = {The Econometrics Journal},
	author = {de Chaisemartin, Clément and D’Haultfœuille, Xavier},
	urldate = {2022-11-17},
	date = {2022-06-08},
}

@online{noauthor_two-way_nodate,
	title = {Two-way fixed effects and differences-in-differences with heterogeneous treatment effects: a survey {\textbar} The Econometrics Journal {\textbar} Oxford Academic},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/ectj/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ectj/utac017/6604378?login=true},
	urldate = {2022-11-17},
}

@article{acemoglu_war_2022,
	title = {War, Socialism, and the Rise of Fascism: an Empirical Exploration*},
	volume = {137},
	issn = {0033-5533},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac001},
	doi = {10.1093/qje/qjac001},
	shorttitle = {War, Socialism, and the Rise of Fascism},
	abstract = {The recent ascent of right-wing populist movements in several countries has rekindled interest in understanding the causes of the rise of fascism in the interwar years. In this article, we argue that there was a strong link between the surge of support for the Socialist Party after World War I and the subsequent emergence of fascism in Italy. We first develop a source of variation in socialist support across Italian municipalities in the 1919 election based on war casualties from the area. We show that these casualties are unrelated to a battery of political, economic, and social variables before the war and had a major effect on socialist support (partly because the socialists were the main antiwar political movement). Our main result is that this boost to socialist support (that is “exogenous” to the prior political leaning of the municipality) led to greater local fascist activity as measured by local party branches and fascist political violence, and to significantly larger vote share of the Fascist Party in the 1921 and 1924 elections. We provide evidence that landowner associations and greater presence of local elites played an important role in the rise of fascism. Finally, we find greater likelihood of Jewish deportations in 1943–45 and lower vote share for Christian Democrats after World War {II} in areas with greater early fascist activity.},
	pages = {1233--1296},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	shortjournal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	author = {Acemoglu, Daron and De Feo, Giuseppe and De Luca, Giacomo and Russo, Gianluca},
	urldate = {2022-11-15},
	date = {2022-05-01},
}

@online{noauthor_home_nodate,
	title = {Home / Twitter},
	url = {https://twitter.com/home},
	titleaddon = {Twitter},
	urldate = {2022-11-14},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{brounstein_can_nodate,
	title = {Can countries unilaterally mitigate tax haven usage? Evidence from Ecuadorian transaction tax data},
	url = {https://jakobbrounstein.github.io/files/brounstein_jmp_taxevasionecuador.pdf},
	journaltitle = {Working Paper},
	author = {Brounstein, Jacob},
}

@article{bailey_estimating_2017,
	title = {Estimating Dynamic State Preferences from United Nations Voting Data},
	volume = {61},
	issn = {0022-0027},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715595700},
	doi = {10.1177/0022002715595700},
	abstract = {United Nations ({UN}) General Assembly votes have become the standard data source for measures of states preferences over foreign policy. Most papers use dyadic indicators of voting similarity between states. We propose a dynamic ordinal spatial model to estimate state ideal points from 1946 to 2012 on a single dimension that reflects state positions toward the {US}-led liberal order. We use information about the content of the {UN}?s agenda to make estimates comparable across time. Compared to existing measures, our estimates better separate signal from noise in identifying foreign policy shifts, have greater face validity, allow for better intertemporal comparisons, are less sensitive to shifts in the {UN}? agenda, and are strongly correlated with measures of liberalism. We show that the choice of preference measures affects conclusions about the democratic peace.},
	pages = {430--456},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Bailey, Michael A. and Strezhnev, Anton and Voeten, Erik},
	urldate = {2022-11-10},
	date = {2017-02-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Inc},
}

@article{snyder_long-term_1992,
	title = {Long-Term Investing in Politicians; Or, Give Early, Give Often},
	volume = {35},
	issn = {0022-2186},
	url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/467243},
	doi = {10.1086/467243},
	pages = {15--43},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of Law and Economics},
	author = {Snyder, James M., },
	urldate = {2022-11-09},
	date = {1992-04},
	note = {Publisher: The University of Chicago Press},
}

@article{hall_buying_1990,
	title = {Buying Time: Moneyed Interests and the Mobilization of Bias in Congressional Committees},
	volume = {84},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/buying-time-moneyed-interests-and-the-mobilization-of-bias-in-congressional-committees/77348AABA9B5E7A9935429752F0518D3},
	doi = {10.2307/1962767},
	shorttitle = {Buying Time},
	abstract = {Over the last two decades institutional critics have increasingly charged that moneyed interests dominate the legislative process in Congress. Systematic research on campaign contributions and members' floor voting, however, provides little supporting evidence. We develop a view of the member-donor relationship that questions the theoretical underpinnings of the vote-buying hypothesis itself and suggests two alternative claims: (1) the effects of group expenditures are more likely to appear in committee than on the floor; and (2) the behavior most likely to be affected is members' legislative involvement, not their votes. In order to test this account, we specify a model of committee participation and estimate it using data from three House committees. In contrast to the substantial literature on contributions and roll calls, our analysis provides solid support for the importance of moneyed interests in the legislative process. We also find evidence that members are more responsive to organized business interests within their districts than to unorganized voters even when voters have strong preferences and the issue at stake is salient. Such findings suggest several important implications for our understanding of political money, interest groups, and the representativeness of legislative deliberations.},
	pages = {797--820},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Hall, Richard L. and Wayman, Frank W.},
	urldate = {2022-11-09},
	date = {1990-09},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
}

@article{fouirnaies_how_2018,
	title = {How Do Interest Groups Seek Access to Committees?},
	volume = {62},
	issn = {1540-5907},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajps.12323},
	doi = {10.1111/ajps.12323},
	abstract = {Concerns that interest groups use their financial resources to distort the democratic process are long-standing. Surprisingly, though, firms spend little money on political campaigns, and roughly 95\% of publicly traded firms in the United States have never contributed to a political campaign. Do interest groups seek political access through their modest contributions, or are these contributions only a minor and forgettable part of the political process? In this article, we present comprehensive evidence that interest groups are extremely sophisticated in the way they make campaign contributions. We collect a new data set on U.S. state legislative committee assignments and legislator procedural powers from 1988 to 2014, merged with campaign finance data, in order to analyze over 440,000 candidate–committee observations across 99 legislatures. Using a series of difference-in-differences designs based on changes in individual legislators' positions in the legislature, we not only show that interest groups seek out committee members, but we also show that they value what we call indirect access. When a legislator gains procedural powers, interest groups reallocate considerable amounts of money to her. The results reveal how interest groups in a wide range of democratic settings seek to influence the policy process not only by seeking direct access to policy makers but by seeking indirect access to legislative procedure as well.},
	pages = {132--147},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Fouirnaies, Alexander and Hall, Andrew B.},
	urldate = {2022-11-08},
	date = {2018},
	langid = {english},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ajps.12323},
}

@article{bombardini_empirical_2020,
	title = {Empirical Models of Lobbying},
	volume = {12},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-082019-024350},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-economics-082019-024350},
	abstract = {This article offers a review of the recent empirical literature on lobbying within political economy. In surveying extant research, we emphasize quid pro quo and informational issues in special interest politics and highlight crucial open questions in both. The two main unresolved methodological issues remain (a) how to account for the impact of lobbying on which equilibrium policies are chosen and advanced and (b) how distorted those equilibrium policies are relative to the social optimum. Of the principal open questions within political economy, a comprehensive, quantitative assessment of the welfare effects of lobbying remains one of the most elusive.},
	pages = {391--413},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Economics},
	author = {Bombardini, Matilde and Trebbi, Francesco},
	urldate = {2022-11-08},
	date = {2020},
	note = {\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-082019-024350},
	keywords = {{JEL} D72, {JEL} P48, lobbying, money in politics, political economy, special interest politics},
}

@article{bouwen_corporate_2002,
	title = {Corporate lobbying in the European Union: the logic of access},
	volume = {9},
	issn = {1350-1763},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13501760210138796},
	doi = {10.1080/13501760210138796},
	shorttitle = {Corporate lobbying in the European Union},
	abstract = {The complexity and diversity of European interest politics is exemplified by the multitude of channels and targets that private actors use to lobby in the {EU} multi-level system. The aim of this article is to investigate the logic behind the apparent ad hoc lobbying behaviour of private interests. A theoretical framework is developed in order to explain the access of business interests to the European Commission, the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers. The degree of access to these institutions is explained in terms of a theory of demand and supply of access goods. Access goods concern information that is crucial in the {EU} policy-making process. In order to gain access to an {EU} institution, business interests have to provide the access good(s) demanded by that institution. Organizational form is introduced as the innovative unit of analysis. It follows that associative business action is unconventionally studied in relation to two other organizational forms: individual company action and thirdparty representation.},
	pages = {365--390},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Journal of European Public Policy},
	author = {Bouwen, Pieter},
	urldate = {2022-11-08},
	date = {2002-01-01},
	note = {Publisher: Routledge
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/13501760210138796},
	keywords = {Critical Resource, Eu Business Lobbying, Key Words Access Good, Organizational Forms, Resource Dependence, Theory Of Access},
}

@article{lorenz-spreen_systematic_2022,
	title = {A systematic review of worldwide causal and correlational evidence on digital media and democracy},
	rights = {2022 The Author(s)},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01460-1},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-022-01460-1},
	abstract = {One of today’s most controversial and consequential issues is whether the global uptake of digital media is causally related to a decline in democracy. We conducted a systematic review of causal and correlational evidence (N = 496 articles) on the link between digital media use and different political variables. Some associations, such as increasing political participation and information consumption, are likely to be beneficial for democracy and were often observed in autocracies and emerging democracies. Other associations, such as declining political trust, increasing populism and growing polarization, are likely to be detrimental to democracy and were more pronounced in established democracies. While the impact of digital media on political systems depends on the specific variable and system in question, several variables show clear directions of associations. The evidence calls for research efforts and vigilance by governments and civil societies to better understand, design and regulate the interplay of digital media and democracy.},
	pages = {1--28},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Lorenz-Spreen, Philipp and Oswald, Lisa and Lewandowsky, Stephan and Hertwig, Ralph},
	urldate = {2022-11-08},
	date = {2022-11-07},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Communication, Science, Society, technology and society},
}

@article{bik_opinion_2022,
	title = {Opinion {\textbar} Science Has a Nasty Photoshopping Problem},
	issn = {0362-4331},
	url = {https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/29/opinion/science-fraud-image-manipulation-photoshop.html},
	abstract = {Scientists need to toughen up about preventing fabricated scientific results from being published.},
	journaltitle = {The New York Times},
	author = {Bik, Elisabeth},
	urldate = {2022-10-30},
	date = {2022-10-29},
	langid = {american},
	keywords = {Academic and Scientific Journals, Frauds and Swindling, Research, Science and Technology},
}

@online{noauthor_scaling_nodate,
	title = {Scaling chat - rmk7@nyu.edu - New York University Mail},
	url = {https://mail.google.com/mail/u/1/?pli=1#inbox/FMfcgzGqQwDLgTrVMxmcsNBPPWMZgFTh},
	urldate = {2022-10-26},
}

@article{kern_elite_2021,
	title = {Elite capture and the political economy of international bailouts},
	url = {https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VBvp9apu4jTVWlN2QxQzfZUsC40ayRJz/view},
	journaltitle = {Working Paper},
	author = {Kern, Andreas and Nosrati, Elias and Reinsberg, Bernhard and Sevinc, Dilek},
	date = {2021-01},
}

@article{odonovan_value_2019,
	title = {The Value of Offshore Secrets: Evidence from the Panama Papers},
	volume = {32},
	issn = {0893-9454},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz017},
	doi = {10.1093/rfs/hhz017},
	shorttitle = {The Value of Offshore Secrets},
	abstract = {We exploit one of the largest data leaks, to date, to study whether and how firms use secret offshore vehicles. From the leaked data, we identify 338 listed firms as users of secret offshore vehicles and document that these vehicles are used to finance corruption, avoid taxes, and expropriate shareholders. Overall, the leak erased \${\textbackslash}\$\$174 billion in market capitalization among implicated firms. Following the increased transparency brought about by the leak, implicated firms experience lower sales from perceptively corrupt countries and avoid less tax. We conservatively estimate that 1 in 7 firms have offshore secrets.Received May 29, 2017; editorial decision December 2, 2018 by Editor Itay Goldstein. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.},
	pages = {4117--4155},
	number = {11},
	journaltitle = {The Review of Financial Studies},
	shortjournal = {The Review of Financial Studies},
	author = {O’Donovan, James and Wagner, Hannes F and Zeume, Stefan},
	urldate = {2022-10-18},
	date = {2019-11-01},
}

@article{bayer_expropriations_2020,
	title = {Expropriations, property confiscations and new offshore entities: Evidence from the Panama Papers},
	volume = {171},
	issn = {0167-2681},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268120300020},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jebo.2020.01.002},
	shorttitle = {Expropriations, property confiscations and new offshore entities},
	abstract = {We study a motive for why individuals may hide wealth in offshore entities that has received scant attention in the academic literature and the public debate: the fear of expropriation. We use the Panama Papers and data on media reporting on expropriations and property confiscations. We document that such news reports increase the probability that offshore entities are incorporated by agents from the same country in the same month. This result is robust to the use of country-year- and month-fixed effects and the exclusion of tax havens. The effect is stronger in countries with well-functioning governments. We argue that individuals start hiding their proceeds from illegal activities in offshore entities when reasonably well-intended and well-functioning governments become more serious about law enforcement.},
	pages = {132--152},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Economic Behavior \& Organization},
	shortjournal = {Journal of Economic Behavior \& Organization},
	author = {Bayer, Ralph-C. and Hodler, Roland and Raschky, Paul A. and Strittmatter, Anthony},
	urldate = {2022-10-18},
	date = {2020-03-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Expropriations and confiscations, Offshore entities, Panama Papers, Tax havens},
}

@misc{earle_preventing_2019,
	location = {Rochester, {NY}},
	title = {Preventing Predation: Oligarchs, Obfuscation, and Political Connections},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3501060},
	doi = {10.2139/ssrn.3501060},
	shorttitle = {Preventing Predation},
	abstract = {We examine the decision of wealthy business owners to protect their holdings from expropriation and arbitrary taxation through proxies, shell companies, and offshore firms. Our theoretical framework emphasizes the role of political connections in decisions to obfuscate. Linking information from investigative journalists on Ukrainian oligarchs with firm-level administrative data on formal ownership ties, we observe obfuscation among more than two-thirds of oligarch-controlled firms, but such behavior is much less common for connected oligarchs. Further exploiting the abrupt shock to political connections that accompanied the Orange Revolution, we find a sharp rise in obfuscation among previously connected oligarchs.},
	number = {3501060},
	author = {Earle, John S. and Gehlbach, Scott and Shirikov, Anton and Shpak, Solomiya},
	urldate = {2022-10-18},
	date = {2019-12-08},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {oligarchs, ownership chains, political connections, predation, property rights},
}

@article{kalyanpur_oligarchs_2022,
	title = {The Oligarch’s Offshore Dilemma},
	journaltitle = {Working Paper},
	author = {Kalyanpur, Nikhil and Thrall, Calvin},
	date = {2022-09},
}

@article{alvaredo_global_2017,
	title = {Global Inequality Dynamics: New Findings from {WID}.world},
	volume = {107},
	issn = {0002-8282},
	url = {https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.p20171095},
	doi = {10.1257/aer.p20171095},
	shorttitle = {Global Inequality Dynamics},
	abstract = {This paper presents new findings on global inequality dynamics from the World Wealth and Income Database ({WID}.world), with particular emphasis on the contrast between the trends observed in the United States, China, France, and the United Kingdom. We observe rising top income and wealth shares in nearly all countries in recent decades. But the magnitude of the increase varies substantially, thereby suggesting that different country-specific policies and institutions matter considerably. Long-run wealth inequality dynamics appear to be highly unstable. We stress the need for more democratic transparency on income and wealth dynamics and better access to administrative and financial data.},
	pages = {404--409},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {American Economic Review},
	author = {Alvaredo, Facundo and Chancel, Lucas and Piketty, Thomas and Saez, Emmanuel and Zucman, Gabriel},
	urldate = {2022-10-18},
	date = {2017-05},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Education and Training: Welfare, Income, Wealth, and Poverty, Health, Human Development, Income Distribution, Institutional Arrangements, Institutions and Growth, Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions: Consumer Economics, Migration, Formal and Informal Sectors, Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions, Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement, Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior, Economic Development: Human Resources, Shadow Economy},
}

@article{chancel_indian_2019,
	title = {Indian Income Inequality, 1922-2015: From British Raj to Billionaire Raj?},
	volume = {65},
	issn = {1475-4991},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/roiw.12439},
	doi = {10.1111/roiw.12439},
	shorttitle = {Indian Income Inequality, 1922-2015},
	abstract = {We combine household surveys and national accounts, as well as recently released tax data to track the dynamics of Indian income inequality from 1922 to 2015. According to our benchmark estimates, the top 1 percent of earners captured less than 21 percent of total income in the late 1930s, before dropping to 6 percent in the early 1980s and rising to 22 percent in the recent period. Our results appear to be robust to a range of alternative assumptions seeking to address numerous data limitations. These findings suggest that much more can be done to promote inclusive growth in India. We also stress the need for more transparency on income and wealth statistics, which is key to allow an informed democratic debate on inequality.},
	pages = {S33--S62},
	issue = {S1},
	journaltitle = {Review of Income and Wealth},
	author = {Chancel, Lucas and Piketty, Thomas},
	urldate = {2022-10-18},
	date = {2019},
	langid = {english},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/roiw.12439},
	keywords = {India, inequality, top incomes},
}

@article{bhowmick_-group_2021,
	title = {In-group bias in the Indian judiciary: Evidence from 5.5 million criminal cases},
	url = {https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3460112.3471943},
	doi = {10.1145/3460112.3471943},
	shorttitle = {In-group bias in the Indian judiciary},
	abstract = {We study judicial in-group bias in Indian criminal courts using a newly collected dataset on over 5 million criminal case records from 2010–2018. After detecting gender and religious identity using a neural-net classifier applied to judge and defendant names, we exploit quasi-random assignment of cases to judges to examine whether defendant outcomes are affected by assignment to a judge with a similar identity. In the aggregate, we estimate tight zero effects of in-group bias based on shared gender, religion, and last name (a proxy for caste). We do find limited in-group bias in some (but not all) settings where identity is salient – in particular, we find a small religious in-group bias during Ramadan, and we find shared-name in-group bias when judge and defendant match on a rare last name. {JEL} codes: J15, J16, K4, O12 ∗Author Details: Ash, {ETH} Zurich: ashe@ethz.ch; Asher, John Hopkins: sasher2@jhu.edu; Bhowmick, Development Data Lab: bhowmick@devdatalab.org; Bhupatiraju: World Bank: sbhupatiraju@worldbank.org; Chen, Toulouse and World Bank: daniel.chen@iast.fr; Devi, Harvard: tdevi@g.harvard.edu; Goessmann, {ETH} Zurich: christoph.goessmann@gess.ethz.ch; Novosad, Dartmouth College: paul.novosad@dartmouth.edu; Siddiqi, {UC} Berkeley: bilal.siddiqi@berkeley.edu. We thank Alison Campion, Rebecca Cai, Nikhitha Cheeti, Kritarth Jha, Romina Jafarian, Ornelie Manzambi, Chetana Sabnis, and Jonathan Tan for helpful research assistance. We thank Emergent Ventures, the World Bank Research Support Budget, the World Bank Program on Data and Evidence for Justice Reform, the {UC} Berkeley Center for Effective Global Action, and the {DFID} Economic Development and Institutions program for financial support. For helpful feedback we thank participants of the Political Economy Seminar at {ETH} Zurich, Delhi School of Economics Winter School 2020, Texas Economics of Crime Workshop, Midwest International Economic Development Conference, Discrimination and Diversity Workshop at the University of East Anglia, Seminar in Applied Microeconomics Virtual Assembly and Discussion ({SAMVAAD}), Women in Economics and Policy seminar series, {UC} Berkeley Development Economics brown bag series, {ACM} {SIGCAS} Conference on Computing and Sustainable Societies (2021), German Development Economics Conference, Evidence in Governance and Politics ({EGAP}) seminar series, the Yale Race, Ethnicity, Gender, and Economic Justice Virtual Symposium, the Penn Center for the Advanced Study of India, and researchers at the Vidhi Center for Legal Policy.},
	pages = {47--47},
	journaltitle = {{ACM} {SIGCAS} Conference on Computing and Sustainable Societies ({COMPASS})},
	author = {Bhowmick, Aditi and Novosad, Paul and Asher, Sam and Ash, Elliott and Siddiqi, Bilal and Goessman, Christoph and Chen, Daniel and Devi, Tanaya},
	urldate = {2022-10-17},
	date = {2021-06-28},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{kubinec_ordered_2022,
	title = {Ordered Beta Regression: A Parsimonious, Well-Fitting Model for Continuous Data with Lower and Upper Bounds},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/ordered-beta-regression-a-parsimonious-wellfitting-model-for-continuous-data-with-lower-and-upper-bounds/89F4141DA16D4FC217809B5EB45EEE83},
	doi = {10.1017/pan.2022.20},
	shorttitle = {Ordered Beta Regression},
	abstract = {I propose a new model, ordered Beta regression, for continuous distributions with both lower and upper bounds, such as data arising from survey slider scales, visual analog scales, and dose–response relationships. This model employs the cut point technique popularized by ordered logit to fit a single linear model to both continuous (0,1) and degenerate [0,1] responses. The model can be estimated with or without observations at the bounds, and as such is a general solution for these types of data. Employing a Monte Carlo simulation, I show that the model is noticeably more efficient than ordinary least squares regression, zero-and-one-inflated Beta regression, rescaled Beta regression, and fractional logit while fully capturing nuances in the outcome. I apply the model to a replication of the Aidt and Jensen (2014, European Economic Review 72, 52–75) study of suffrage extensions in Europe. The model can be fit with the R package ordbetareg to facilitate hierarchical, dynamic, and multivariate modeling.},
	pages = {1--18},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Kubinec, Robert},
	urldate = {2022-10-17},
	date = {2022-07-27},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
	keywords = {Bayesian statistics, limited dependent variables, regression modeling},
}

@article{guerra_vote_2022,
	title = {Vote buying and redistribution},
	issn = {1573-7101},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-022-00999-x},
	doi = {10.1007/s11127-022-00999-x},
	abstract = {Vote buying is a form of political clientelism involving pre-electoral transfers of money or material benefits from candidates to voters. Despite the presence of secret ballots, vote buying remains a pervasive phenomenon during elections in developing countries. While prior literature has focused on how vote buying is enforced by parties and political candidates and which types of voters are most likely targeted, we know much less about the behavioral spillover effects of vote buying on citizens’ demand for redistribution and contributions to the provision of public goods. In this paper, we provide evidence on how vote buying causally affects voters’ candidate choice, support for redistribution, and public goods provision. Using data from a laboratory experiment in Kenya, we find that vote buying is a double-edged sword for candidates using clientelist strategies: it attracts votes from those who were offered money and accepted it, but it also leads to negative reactions from those who rejected the offer as well as those who were not offered money. In line with its effect on voting behavior, vote buying has negative effects on subjects’ evaluations of the vote-buying candidate. Vote buying significantly reduces individuals’ stated preferences for more government spending on police and law enforcement—yet, surprisingly, not on other welfare areas such as unemployment benefits or health. We also find that open ballots—but not vote-buying campaigns—reduce individuals’ willingness to contribute to public goods provisions.},
	journaltitle = {Public Choice},
	shortjournal = {Public Choice},
	author = {Guerra, Alice and Justesen, Mogens K.},
	urldate = {2022-10-17},
	date = {2022-10-13},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {D72, Laboratory experiments, Public goods, Redistribution, Secret ballots, Vote buying},
}

@misc{broderick_automatic_2021,
	title = {An Automatic Finite-Sample Robustness Metric: When Can Dropping a Little Data Make a Big Difference?},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2011.14999},
	doi = {10.48550/arXiv.2011.14999},
	shorttitle = {An Automatic Finite-Sample Robustness Metric},
	abstract = {We propose a method to assess the sensitivity of econometric analyses to the removal of a small fraction of the data. Manually checking the influence of all possible small subsets is computationally infeasible, so we provide an approximation to find the most influential subset. Our metric, the "Approximate Maximum Influence Perturbation," is automatically computable for common methods including (but not limited to) {OLS}, {IV}, {MLE}, {GMM}, and variational Bayes. We provide finite-sample error bounds on approximation performance. At minimal extra cost, we provide an exact finite-sample lower bound on sensitivity. We find that sensitivity is driven by a signal-to-noise ratio in the inference problem, is not reflected in standard errors, does not disappear asymptotically, and is not due to misspecification. While some empirical applications are robust, results of several economics papers can be overturned by removing less than 1\% of the sample.},
	number = {{arXiv}:2011.14999},
	publisher = {{arXiv}},
	author = {Broderick, Tamara and Giordano, Ryan and Meager, Rachael},
	urldate = {2022-10-10},
	date = {2021-11-03},
	eprinttype = {arxiv},
	eprint = {2011.14999 [econ, stat]},
	keywords = {Economics - Econometrics, Statistics - Methodology},
}

@article{nour_functional_2022,
	title = {Functional neuroimaging in psychiatry and the case for failing better},
	volume = {110},
	issn = {08966273},
	url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S089662732200647X},
	doi = {10.1016/j.neuron.2022.07.005},
	abstract = {Psychiatric disorders encompass complex aberrations of cognition and affect and are among the most debilitating and poorly understood of any medical condition. Current treatments rely primarily on interventions that target brain function (drugs) or learning processes (psychotherapy). A mechanistic understanding of how these interventions mediate their therapeutic effects remains elusive. From the early 1990s, non-invasive functional neuroimaging, coupled with parallel developments in the cognitive neurosciences, seemed to signal a new era of neurobiologically grounded diagnosis and treatment in psychiatry. Yet, despite three decades of intense neuroimaging research, we still lack a neurobiological account for any psychiatric condition. Likewise, functional neuroimaging plays no role in clinical decision making. Here, we offer a critical commentary on this impasse and suggest how the ﬁeld might fare better and deliver impactful neurobiological insights.},
	pages = {2524--2544},
	number = {16},
	journaltitle = {Neuron},
	shortjournal = {Neuron},
	author = {Nour, Matthew M. and Liu, Yunzhe and Dolan, Raymond J.},
	urldate = {2022-10-10},
	date = {2022-08},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{noauthor_maps_2022,
	title = {Maps: Tracking the Russian Invasion of Ukraine},
	issn = {0362-4331},
	url = {https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/world/europe/ukraine-maps.html},
	shorttitle = {Maps},
	abstract = {Ukraine’s advance in the southern Kherson region has accelerated in recent days.},
	journaltitle = {The New York Times},
	urldate = {2022-10-05},
	date = {2022-02-14},
	langid = {american},
	keywords = {Defense and Military Forces, Russia, Russian Invasion of Ukraine (2022), Ukraine, War and Armed Conflicts},
}

@article{carnegie_assessing_2016,
	title = {Assessing Sensitivity to Unmeasured Confounding Using a Simulated Potential Confounder},
	volume = {9},
	issn = {1934-5747},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/19345747.2015.1078862},
	doi = {10.1080/19345747.2015.1078862},
	abstract = {A major obstacle to developing evidenced-based policy is the difficulty of implementing randomized experiments to answer all causal questions of interest. When using a nonexperimental study, it is critical to assess how much the results could be affected by unmeasured confounding. We present a set of graphical and numeric tools to explore the sensitivity of causal estimates to the presence of an unmeasured confounder. We characterize the confounder through two parameters that describe the relationships between (a) the confounder and the treatment assignment and (b) the confounder and the outcome variable. Our approach has two primary advantages over similar approaches that are currently implemented in standard software. First, it can be applied to both continuous and binary treatment variables. Second, our method for binary treatment variables allows the researcher to specify three possible estimands (average treatment effect, effect of the treatment on the treated, effect of the treatment on the controls). These options are all implemented in an R package called {treatSens}. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method through simulations. We illustrate its potential usefulness in practice in the context of two policy applications.},
	pages = {395--420},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness},
	author = {Carnegie, Nicole Bohme and Harada, Masataka and Hill, Jennifer L.},
	urldate = {2022-10-03},
	date = {2016-07-02},
	note = {Publisher: Routledge
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/19345747.2015.1078862},
	keywords = {causal inference, hidden bias, omitted variable, sensitivity analysis, unmeasured confounder},
}

@article{carnegie_assessing_2016-1,
	title = {Assessing Sensitivity to Unmeasured Confounding Using a Simulated Potential Confounder},
	volume = {9},
	issn = {1934-5747},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/19345747.2015.1078862},
	doi = {10.1080/19345747.2015.1078862},
	abstract = {A major obstacle to developing evidenced-based policy is the difficulty of implementing randomized experiments to answer all causal questions of interest. When using a nonexperimental study, it is critical to assess how much the results could be affected by unmeasured confounding. We present a set of graphical and numeric tools to explore the sensitivity of causal estimates to the presence of an unmeasured confounder. We characterize the confounder through two parameters that describe the relationships between (a) the confounder and the treatment assignment and (b) the confounder and the outcome variable. Our approach has two primary advantages over similar approaches that are currently implemented in standard software. First, it can be applied to both continuous and binary treatment variables. Second, our method for binary treatment variables allows the researcher to specify three possible estimands (average treatment effect, effect of the treatment on the treated, effect of the treatment on the controls). These options are all implemented in an R package called {treatSens}. We demonstrate the efficacy of the method through simulations. We illustrate its potential usefulness in practice in the context of two policy applications.},
	pages = {395--420},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness},
	author = {Carnegie, Nicole Bohme and Harada, Masataka and Hill, Jennifer L.},
	urldate = {2022-09-29},
	date = {2016-07-02},
	note = {Publisher: Routledge
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/19345747.2015.1078862},
	keywords = {causal inference, hidden bias, omitted variable, sensitivity analysis, unmeasured confounder},
}

@article{dorie_flexible_2016,
	title = {A flexible, interpretable framework for assessing sensitivity to unmeasured confounding},
	volume = {35},
	issn = {1097-0258},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/sim.6973},
	doi = {10.1002/sim.6973},
	abstract = {When estimating causal effects, unmeasured confounding and model misspecification are both potential sources of bias. We propose a method to simultaneously address both issues in the form of a semi-parametric sensitivity analysis. In particular, our approach incorporates Bayesian Additive Regression Trees into a two-parameter sensitivity analysis strategy that assesses sensitivity of posterior distributions of treatment effects to choices of sensitivity parameters. This results in an easily interpretable framework for testing for the impact of an unmeasured confounder that also limits the number of modeling assumptions. We evaluate our approach in a large-scale simulation setting and with high blood pressure data taken from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The model is implemented as open-source software, integrated into the {treatSens} package for the R statistical programming language. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley \& Sons Ltd.},
	pages = {3453--3470},
	number = {20},
	journaltitle = {Statistics in Medicine},
	author = {Dorie, Vincent and Harada, Masataka and Carnegie, Nicole Bohme and Hill, Jennifer},
	urldate = {2022-09-29},
	date = {2016},
	langid = {english},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/sim.6973},
	keywords = {Bayesian modeling, causal inference, nonparametric regression, sensitivity analysis, unmeasured confounding},
}

@article{askarov_significance_2022,
	title = {The Significance of Data-Sharing Policy},
	issn = {1542-4766},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvac053},
	doi = {10.1093/jeea/jvac053},
	abstract = {We assess the impact of mandating data-sharing in economics journals on two dimensions of research credibility: statistical significance and excess statistical significance. Excess statistical significance is a necessary condition for publication selection bias. Quasi-experimental difference-in-differences analysis of 20,121 estimates published in 24 general interest and leading field journals shows that data-sharing policies have reduced reported statistical significance and the associated t-values. The magnitude of this reduction is large and of practical significance. We also find suggestive evidence that mandatory data-sharing reduces excess statistical significance and hence decreases publication bias.},
	pages = {jvac053},
	journaltitle = {Journal of the European Economic Association},
	shortjournal = {Journal of the European Economic Association},
	author = {Askarov, Zohid and Doucouliagos, Anthony and Doucouliagos, Hristos and Stanley, T D},
	urldate = {2022-09-28},
	date = {2022-09-20},
}

@article{wapman_quantifying_2022,
	title = {Quantifying hierarchy and dynamics in {US} faculty hiring and retention},
	rights = {2022 The Author(s)},
	issn = {1476-4687},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05222-x},
	doi = {10.1038/s41586-022-05222-x},
	abstract = {Faculty hiring and retention determine the composition of the {US} academic workforce and directly shape educational outcomes1, careers2, the development and spread of ideas3 and research priorities4,5. However, hiring and retention are dynamic, reflecting societal and academic priorities, generational turnover and efforts to diversify the professoriate along gender6–8, racial9 and socioeconomic10 lines. A comprehensive study of the structure and dynamics of the {US} professoriate would elucidate the effects of these efforts and the processes that shape scholarship more broadly. Here we analyse the academic employment and doctoral education of tenure-track faculty at all {PhD}-granting {US} universities over the decade 2011–2020, quantifying stark inequalities in faculty production, prestige, retention and gender. Our analyses show universal inequalities in which a small minority of universities supply a large majority of faculty across fields, exacerbated by patterns of attrition and reflecting steep hierarchies of prestige. We identify markedly higher attrition rates among faculty trained outside the United States or employed by their doctoral university. Our results indicate that gains in women’s representation over this decade result from demographic turnover and earlier changes made to hiring, and are unlikely to lead to long-term gender parity in most fields. These analyses quantify the dynamics of {US} faculty hiring and retention, and will support efforts to improve the organization, composition and scholarship of the {US} academic workforce.},
	pages = {1--8},
	journaltitle = {Nature},
	author = {Wapman, K. Hunter and Zhang, Sam and Clauset, Aaron and Larremore, Daniel B.},
	urldate = {2022-09-26},
	date = {2022-09-21},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Careers, Institutions},
}

@online{noauthor_full_nodate,
	title = {Full article: Assessing Sensitivity to Unmeasured Confounding Using a Simulated Potential Confounder},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/19345747.2015.1078862},
	urldate = {2022-09-23},
}

@misc{dolan_field_2021,
	title = {A Field Experiment on Business Opposition to the U.S.-China Trade War},
	url = {https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/435u9/},
	doi = {10.31235/osf.io/435u9},
	abstract = {Despite the harmful consequences of the U.S-China trade war, only a handful of firms took collective action to oppose it. To understand why, we implemented a field experiment in which we randomly provided detailed estimates of the costs of the trade war to U.S. company managers and measured their willingness to take actions either opposing or supporting the trade war. While overall our treatment counter-intuitively reduced opposition to the trade war, these effects were highly conditional on respondents' prior beliefs and the number of tariffs in their industry. The treatment increased opposition the most among subjects in industries with substantial tariffs who also thought the trade war was harmful. However, it decreased opposition among subjects who held neutral beliefs about the trade war. Finally, we find that a company’s political culture strongly predicts their political activity, suggesting political ideology and not just a company’s business interests shape corporate behavior.},
	publisher = {{SocArXiv}},
	author = {Dolan, Lindsay and Kubinec, Robert and Nielson, Daniel and Zhang, Jack},
	urldate = {2022-09-20},
	date = {2021-11-08},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Economics, International Relations, Political Economy, Political Science, Social and Behavioral Sciences},
}

@online{berman_causes_nodate,
	title = {The Causes of Populism in the West {\textbar} Annual Review of Political Science},
	url = {https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041719-102503},
	author = {Berman, Sheri},
	urldate = {2022-09-12},
}

@misc{kubinec_when_2018,
	title = {When National Unity Governments are neither National, United, nor Governments: The Case of Tunisia},
	url = {https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/6z74r/},
	doi = {10.31235/osf.io/6z74r},
	shorttitle = {When National Unity Governments are neither National, United, nor Governments},
	abstract = {Is power-sharing an effective way for endangered transitional democracies to reduce political tensions and improve government performance?  We provide one of the first quantitative tests of this question in Tunisia, the Arab Spring's only success story. We argue that power-sharing may reduce polarization for a limited time, but at the cost of undermining democratic institutions. To measure polarization, we examine all rollcall votes from Tunisia's first and second post-transition parliaments. We employ a time-varying ideal point model and examine whether power-sharing agreements led to convergence in political parties' ideal points. Our analysis reveals that Tunisia's national unity government in 2015 temporarily moderated political tensions and allowed for parliamentary activity to resume. However, despite a broadening of the coalition in mid-2016, polarization reemerged and crucial legislation stalled. Moreover, longitudinal survey data suggest that the failure of power-sharing in Tunisia contributed to disillusionment with political parties, parliament, and democracy.},
	publisher = {{SocArXiv}},
	author = {Kubinec, Robert and Grewal, Sharan},
	urldate = {2022-09-12},
	date = {2018-12-05},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Comparative Politics, Middle East, Political Science, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Tunisia, democracy, legislature, policy, power-sharing, transitions},
}

@article{rooduijn_populist_2019,
	title = {The {PopuList}: An overview of populist, far right, far left and Eurosceptic parties in Europe},
	shorttitle = {The {PopuList}},
	author = {Rooduijn, Matthijs and Van Kessel, Stijn and Froio, Caterina and Pirro, Andrea and De Lange, Sarah and Halikiopoulou, Daphne and Lewis, Paul and Mudde, Cas and Taggart, Paul},
	date = {2019},
}

@article{noury_identity_2020,
	title = {Identity Politics and Populism in Europe},
	volume = {23},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-050718-033542},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-polisci-050718-033542},
	abstract = {We review the literature on the rise of identity politics and populism in Europe. Populist parties have gained large vote shares since the Great Recession of 2008. We observe in many countries, and even in the European Parliament, a transformation of the main dimension of politics from the left–right cleavage to a new cleavage opposing the mainstream parties to populist parties. We examine how this transformation relates to changes in voter attitudes and the adjustment of political parties to these changes. Two main types of causes for the rise of populism have emerged: economic and cultural. In reviewing the evidence, we find a complex interaction between economic and cultural factors. Economic anxiety among large groups of voters related to the Great Recession and austerity policies triggers a heightened receptivity to the messages of cultural backlash from populist parties.},
	pages = {421--439},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Noury, Abdul and Roland, Gerard},
	urldate = {2022-09-12},
	date = {2020},
	note = {\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-050718-033542},
	keywords = {Europe, Great Recession, financial crisis, globalization, identity politics, nativism, populism, refugee crisis},
}

@article{moretto_people_2022,
	title = {People are more engaged on Facebook as they get older, especially in politics: evidence from users in 46 countries},
	volume = {2},
	rights = {Copyright (c) 2022 Marcio Moretto, Pablo Ortellado, Gabriel Kessler, Gabriel Vommaro, Juan Carlos Rodriguez-Raga, Juan Pablo Luna, Eduarth Heinen, Laura Fernanda Cely, Sergio Toro},
	issn = {2673-8813},
	url = {https://journalqd.org/article/view/3317},
	doi = {10.51685/jqd.2022.018},
	shorttitle = {People are more engaged on Facebook as they get older, especially in politics},
	abstract = {A growing body of literature has noted an age pattern in the sharing of false news in social media, with older people sharing more often misinformation than younger users. In this article we supplement this literature by documenting two distinct but complementary phenomena: Facebook users share more content as they get older regardless of whether it is political; and that this increment in sharing activity as age increases is more intense with political and partisan {URLs}. Based on the Facebook Privacy-Protected Full {URLs} Data Set, a vast Facebook database with demographic information of those who saw and shared links on Facebook in 46 countries, we investigate the impact of age on link-sharing activity. We found that in 43 countries, the average age of people who shared links was considerably higher than the age of those who saw the links. In a more detailed study, with Facebook users in South America, we find that the average age increases consecutively in the sharing of non-political content, in the sharing of political content, in the sharing of partisan sites and in the sharing of right-leaning partisan sites.},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Quantitative Description: Digital Media},
	author = {Moretto, Marcio and Ortellado, Pablo and Kessler, Gabriel and Vommaro, Gabriel and Rodriguez-Raga, Juan Carlos and Luna, Juan Pablo and Heinen, Eduarth and Cely, Laura Fernanda and Toro, Sergio},
	urldate = {2022-09-08},
	date = {2022-09-07},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Facebook, older adults, social media},
}

@book{wyrtzen_worldmaking_2022,
	title = {Worldmaking in the Long Great War: How Local and Colonial Struggles Shaped the Modern Middle East},
	isbn = {978-0-231-54657-7},
	shorttitle = {Worldmaking in the Long Great War},
	abstract = {It is widely believed that the political problems of the Middle East date back to the era of World War I, when European colonial powers unilaterally imposed artificial borders on the post-Ottoman world in postwar agreements. This book offers a new account of how the Great War unmade and then remade the political order of the region. Ranging from Morocco to Iran and spanning the eve of the Great War into the 1930s, it demonstrates that the modern Middle East was shaped through complex and violent power struggles among local and international actors.Jonathan Wyrtzen shows how the cataclysm of the war opened new possibilities for both European and local actors to reimagine post-Ottoman futures. After the 1914–1918 phase of the war, violent conflicts between competing political visions continued across the region. In these extended struggles, the greater Middle East was reforged. Wyrtzen emphasizes the intersections of local and colonial projects and the entwined processes through which states were made, identities transformed, and boundaries drawn. This book’s vast scope encompasses successful state-building projects such as the Turkish Republic and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as well as short-lived political units—including the Rif Republic in Morocco, the Sanusi state in eastern Libya, a Greater Syria, and attempted Kurdish states—that nonetheless left traces on the map of the region. Drawing on a wide range of sources, Worldmaking in the Long Great War retells the origin story of the modern Middle East.},
	publisher = {Columbia University Press},
	author = {Wyrtzen, Jonathan},
	date = {2022-08},
	note = {Pages: 336 Pages},
}

@online{noauthor_saied_nodate,
	title = {Saied Religious Support},
	url = {https://www.overleaf.com/project/6304b5c925ea726e4f23ae0c},
	abstract = {An online {LaTeX} editor that’s easy to use. No installation, real-time collaboration, version control, hundreds of {LaTeX} templates, and more.},
	urldate = {2022-09-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{farrell_spirals_nodate,
	title = {Spirals of Delusion: How {AI} Distorts Decision-Making and Makes Dictators More Dangerous},
	url = {https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/spirals-delusion-artificial-intelligence-decision-making},
	journaltitle = {Foreign Affairs},
	author = {Farrell, Henry and Newman, Abraham and Wallace, Jeremy},
}

@article{morgan_socioeconomic_2022,
	title = {Socioeconomic roots of academic faculty},
	rights = {2022 The Author(s)},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01425-4},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-022-01425-4},
	abstract = {Despite the special role of tenure-track faculty in society, training future researchers and producing scholarship that drives scientific and technological innovation, the sociodemographic characteristics of the professoriate have never been representative of the general population. Here we systematically investigate the indicators of faculty childhood socioeconomic status and consider how they may limit efforts to diversify the professoriate. Combining national-level data on education, income and university rankings with a 2017–2020 survey of 7,204 {US}-based tenure-track faculty across eight disciplines in {STEM}, social science and the humanities, we show that faculty are up to 25 times more likely to have a parent with a Ph.D. Moreover, this rate nearly doubles at prestigious universities and is stable across the past 50 years. Our results suggest that the professoriate is, and has remained, accessible disproportionately to the socioeconomically privileged, which is likely to deeply shape their scholarship and their reproduction.},
	pages = {1--9},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Morgan, Allison C. and {LaBerge}, Nicholas and Larremore, Daniel B. and Galesic, Mirta and Brand, Jennie E. and Clauset, Aaron},
	urldate = {2022-08-30},
	date = {2022-08-29},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Careers, Education, Scientific community},
}

@article{zhu_intergenerational_2022,
	title = {The intergenerational sources of the U-turn in gender segregation},
	volume = {119},
	url = {https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2121439119},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.2121439119},
	pages = {e2121439119},
	number = {32},
	journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Zhu, Ling and Grusky, David B.},
	urldate = {2022-08-26},
	date = {2022-08-09},
	note = {Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
}

@article{jimenez_what_2022,
	title = {What were the historical reasons for the resistance to recognizing airborne transmission during the {COVID}-19 pandemic?},
	volume = {32},
	issn = {1600-0668},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ina.13070},
	doi = {10.1111/ina.13070},
	abstract = {The question of whether {SARS}-{CoV}-2 is mainly transmitted by droplets or aerosols has been highly controversial. We sought to explain this controversy through a historical analysis of transmission research in other diseases. For most of human history, the dominant paradigm was that many diseases were carried by the air, often over long distances and in a phantasmagorical way. This miasmatic paradigm was challenged in the mid to late 19th century with the rise of germ theory, and as diseases such as cholera, puerperal fever, and malaria were found to actually transmit in other ways. Motivated by his views on the importance of contact/droplet infection, and the resistance he encountered from the remaining influence of miasma theory, prominent public health official Charles Chapin in 1910 helped initiate a successful paradigm shift, deeming airborne transmission most unlikely. This new paradigm became dominant. However, the lack of understanding of aerosols led to systematic errors in the interpretation of research evidence on transmission pathways. For the next five decades, airborne transmission was considered of negligible or minor importance for all major respiratory diseases, until a demonstration of airborne transmission of tuberculosis (which had been mistakenly thought to be transmitted by droplets) in 1962. The contact/droplet paradigm remained dominant, and only a few diseases were widely accepted as airborne before {COVID}-19: those that were clearly transmitted to people not in the same room. The acceleration of interdisciplinary research inspired by the {COVID}-19 pandemic has shown that airborne transmission is a major mode of transmission for this disease, and is likely to be significant for many respiratory infectious diseases.},
	pages = {e13070},
	number = {8},
	journaltitle = {Indoor Air},
	author = {Jimenez, Jose L. and Marr, Linsey C. and Randall, Katherine and Ewing, Edward Thomas and Tufekci, Zeynep and Greenhalgh, Trish and Tellier, Raymond and Tang, Julian W. and Li, Yuguo and Morawska, Lidia and Mesiano-Crookston, Jonathan and Fisman, David and Hegarty, Orla and Dancer, Stephanie J. and Bluyssen, Philomena M. and Buonanno, Giorgio and Loomans, Marcel G. L. C. and Bahnfleth, William P. and Yao, Maosheng and Sekhar, Chandra and Wargocki, Pawel and Melikov, Arsen K. and Prather, Kimberly A.},
	urldate = {2022-08-25},
	date = {2022},
	langid = {english},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ina.13070},
	keywords = {airborne transmission, disease transmission, droplet transmission, history},
}

@article{kim_measuring_2022,
	title = {Measuring dynamic media bias},
	volume = {119},
	url = {https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2202197119},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.2202197119},
	pages = {e2202197119},
	number = {32},
	journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Kim, Eunji and Lelkes, Yphtach and {McCrain}, Joshua},
	urldate = {2022-08-22},
	date = {2022-08-09},
	note = {Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
}

@article{noauthor_oil_nodate,
	title = {An oil windfall offers Gulf states one last chance to splurge},
	issn = {0013-0613},
	url = {https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/08/07/an-oil-windfall-offers-gulf-states-one-last-chance-to-splurge},
	journaltitle = {The Economist},
	urldate = {2022-08-08},
}

@article{lee_great_2022,
	title = {The Great Revenue Divergence},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/abs/great-revenue-divergence/CA3F6551251E9C6E182599719A3CD9E9},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818322000200},
	abstract = {This article describes and explains a previously overlooked empirical pattern in state revenue collection. As late as 1913, central governments in the West collected similar levels of per capita revenue as the rest of the world, despite ruling richer societies and experiencing a long history of fiscal innovation. Western revenue levels permanently diverged only in the following half-century. We identify the twentieth-century great revenue divergence by constructing a new panel data set of central government revenue with broad spatial and temporal coverage. To explain the pattern, we argue that sustainably high levels of revenue extraction require societal demand for an activist state, and a supply of effective bureaucratic institutions. Neither factor in isolation is sufficient. We formalize this insight in a game-theoretic model. The government can choose among low-effort, legibility-intensive, and crony-favoring strategies for raising revenues. Empirically, our theory accounts for low revenue intake in periods of low demand (the nineteenth-century West) or low bureaucratic capacity (twentieth-century former colonies), and for eventual revenue spikes in the West.},
	pages = {1--42},
	journaltitle = {International Organization},
	author = {Lee, Alexander and Paine, Jack},
	urldate = {2022-08-08},
	date = {2022-08-08},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
	keywords = {Government revenues, bureaucracy, fiscal capacity, state capacity, war},
}

@online{noauthor_inbox_nodate,
	title = {Inbox - rmk7@nyu.edu - New York University Mail},
	url = {https://mail.google.com/mail/u/2/#inbox},
	urldate = {2022-07-30},
}

@online{noauthor_home_nodate-1,
	title = {Home / Twitter},
	url = {https://twitter.com/home},
	titleaddon = {Twitter},
	urldate = {2022-07-30},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{schwarzinger_covid-19_2021,
	title = {{COVID}-19 vaccine hesitancy in a representative working-age population in France: a survey experiment based on vaccine characteristics},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {2468-2667},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468266721000128},
	doi = {10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00012-8},
	shorttitle = {{COVID}-19 vaccine hesitancy in a representative working-age population in France},
	abstract = {Background
Opinion polls on vaccination intentions suggest that {COVID}-19 vaccine hesitancy is increasing worldwide; however, the usefulness of opinion polls to prepare mass vaccination campaigns for specific new vaccines and to estimate acceptance in a country's population is limited. We therefore aimed to assess the effects of vaccine characteristics, information on herd immunity, and general practitioner ({GP}) recommendation on vaccine hesitancy in a representative working-age population in France.
Methods
In this survey experiment, adults aged 18–64 years residing in France, with no history of {SARS}-{CoV}-2 infection, were randomly selected from an online survey research panel in July, 2020, stratified by gender, age, education, household size, and region and area of residence to be representative of the French population. Participants completed an online questionnaire on their background and vaccination behaviour-related variables (including past vaccine compliance, risk factors for severe {COVID}-19, and {COVID}-19 perceptions and experience), and were then randomly assigned according to a full factorial design to one of three groups to receive differing information on herd immunity ({\textgreater}50\% of adults aged 18–64 years must be immunised [either by vaccination or infection]; {\textgreater}50\% of adults must be immunised [either by vaccination or infection]; or no information on herd immunity) and to one of two groups regarding {GP} recommendation of vaccination ({GP} recommends vaccination or expresses no opinion). Participants then completed a series of eight discrete choice tasks designed to assess vaccine acceptance or refusal based on hypothetical vaccine characteristics (efficacy [50\%, 80\%, 90\%, or 100\%], risk of serious side-effects [1 in 10 000 or 1 in 100 000], location of manufacture [{EU}, {USA}, or China], and place of administration [{GP} practice, local pharmacy, or mass vaccination centre]). Responses were analysed with a two-part model to disentangle outright vaccine refusal (irrespective of vaccine characteristics, defined as opting for no vaccination in all eight tasks) from vaccine hesitancy (acceptance depending on vaccine characteristics).
Findings
Survey responses were collected from 1942 working-age adults, of whom 560 (28·8\%) opted for no vaccination in all eight tasks (outright vaccine refusal) and 1382 (71·2\%) did not. In our model, outright vaccine refusal and vaccine hesitancy were both significantly associated with female gender, age (with an inverted U-shaped relationship), lower educational level, poor compliance with recommended vaccinations in the past, and no report of specified chronic conditions (ie, no hypertension [for vaccine hesitancy] or no chronic conditions other than hypertension [for outright vaccine refusal]). Outright vaccine refusal was also associated with a lower perceived severity of {COVID}-19, whereas vaccine hesitancy was lower when herd immunity benefits were communicated and in working versus non-working individuals, and those with experience of {COVID}-19 (had symptoms or knew someone with {COVID}-19). For a mass vaccination campaign involving mass vaccination centres and communication of herd immunity benefits, our model predicted outright vaccine refusal in 29·4\% (95\% {CI} 28·6–30·2) of the French working-age population. Predicted hesitancy was highest for vaccines manufactured in China with 50\% efficacy and a 1 in 10 000 risk of serious side-effects (vaccine acceptance 27·4\% [26·8–28·0]), and lowest for a vaccine manufactured in the {EU} with 90\% efficacy and a 1 in 100 000 risk of serious side-effects (vaccine acceptance 61·3\% [60·5–62·1]).
Interpretation
{COVID}-19 vaccine acceptance depends on the characteristics of new vaccines and the national vaccination strategy, among various other factors, in the working-age population in France.
Funding
French Public Health Agency (Santé Publique France).},
	pages = {e210--e221},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {The Lancet Public Health},
	shortjournal = {The Lancet Public Health},
	author = {Schwarzinger, Michaël and Watson, Verity and Arwidson, Pierre and Alla, François and Luchini, Stéphane},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	date = {2021-04-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@misc{simonov_persuasive_2020,
	title = {The Persuasive Effect of Fox News: Non-Compliance with Social Distancing During the Covid-19 Pandemic},
	url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w27237},
	doi = {10.3386/w27237},
	series = {Working Paper Series},
	shorttitle = {The Persuasive Effect of Fox News},
	abstract = {We test for and measure the effects of cable news in the {US} on regional differences in compliance with recommendations by health experts to practice social distancing during the early stages of the {COVID}-19 pandemic. We use a quasi-experimental design to estimate the causal effect of Fox News viewership on stay-at-home behavior by using only the incremental local viewership due to the quasi-random assignment of channel positions in a local cable line-up. We find that a 10\% increase in Fox News cable viewership (approximately 0:13 higher viewer rating points) leads to a 1.3 percentage point reduction in the propensity to stay at home. We find a persuasion rate of Fox News on non-compliance with stay-at-home behavior during the crisis of about 5:7\% - 28:4\% across our various social distancing metrics.},
	number = {27237},
	publisher = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Simonov, Andrey and Sacher, Szymon K. and Dubé, Jean-Pierre H. and Biswas, Shirsho},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	date = {2020-05},
	doi = {10.3386/w27237},
}

@article{lewandowsky_countering_2021,
	title = {Countering Misinformation and Fake News Through Inoculation and Prebunking},
	volume = {32},
	issn = {1046-3283},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/10463283.2021.1876983},
	doi = {10.1080/10463283.2021.1876983},
	abstract = {There has been increasing concern with the growing infusion of misinformation, or “fake news”, into public discourse and politics in many western democracies. Our article first briefly reviews the current state of the literature on conventional countermeasures to misinformation. We then explore proactive measures to prevent misinformation from finding traction in the first place that is based on the psychological theory of “inoculation”. Inoculation rests on the idea that if people are forewarned that they might be misinformed and are exposed to weakened examples of the ways in which they might be misled, they will become more immune to misinformation. We review a number of techniques that can boost people’s resilience to misinformation, ranging from general warnings to more specific instructions about misleading (rhetorical) techniques. We show that based on the available evidence, inoculation appears to be a promising avenue to help protect people from misinformation and “fake news”.},
	pages = {348--384},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {European Review of Social Psychology},
	author = {Lewandowsky, Stephan and van der Linden, Sander},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	date = {2021-07-03},
	note = {Publisher: Routledge
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/10463283.2021.1876983},
	keywords = {Fake News, Inoculation Theory, Misinformation, Prebunking},
}

@article{bavel_using_2020,
	title = {Using social and behavioural science to support {COVID}-19 pandemic response},
	volume = {4},
	rights = {2020 Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0884-z},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-020-0884-z},
	abstract = {The {COVID}-19 pandemic represents a massive global health crisis. Because the crisis requires large-scale behaviour change and places significant psychological burdens on individuals, insights from the social and behavioural sciences can be used to help align human behaviour with the recommendations of epidemiologists and public health experts. Here we discuss evidence from a selection of research topics relevant to pandemics, including work on navigating threats, social and cultural influences on behaviour, science communication, moral decision-making, leadership, and stress and coping. In each section, we note the nature and quality of prior research, including uncertainty and unsettled issues. We identify several insights for effective response to the {COVID}-19 pandemic and highlight important gaps researchers should move quickly to fill in the coming weeks and months.},
	pages = {460--471},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Bavel, Jay J. Van and Baicker, Katherine and Boggio, Paulo S. and Capraro, Valerio and Cichocka, Aleksandra and Cikara, Mina and Crockett, Molly J. and Crum, Alia J. and Douglas, Karen M. and Druckman, James N. and Drury, John and Dube, Oeindrila and Ellemers, Naomi and Finkel, Eli J. and Fowler, James H. and Gelfand, Michele and Han, Shihui and Haslam, S. Alexander and Jetten, Jolanda and Kitayama, Shinobu and Mobbs, Dean and Napper, Lucy E. and Packer, Dominic J. and Pennycook, Gordon and Peters, Ellen and Petty, Richard E. and Rand, David G. and Reicher, Stephen D. and Schnall, Simone and Shariff, Azim and Skitka, Linda J. and Smith, Sandra Susan and Sunstein, Cass R. and Tabri, Nassim and Tucker, Joshua A. and Linden, Sander van der and Lange, Paul van and Weeden, Kim A. and Wohl, Michael J. A. and Zaki, Jamil and Zion, Sean R. and Willer, Robb},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	date = {2020-05},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Number: 5
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Human behaviour, Immunology, Sociology},
}

@article{bridgman_causes_2020,
	title = {The causes and consequences of {COVID}-19 misperceptions: Understanding the role of news and social media},
	volume = {1},
	url = {https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/the-causes-and-consequences-of-covid-19-misperceptions-understanding-the-role-of-news-and-social-media/},
	doi = {10.37016/mr-2020-028},
	shorttitle = {The causes and consequences of {COVID}-19 misperceptions},
	abstract = {We investigate the relationship between media consumption, misinformation, and important attitudes and behaviours during the coronavirus disease 2019 ({COVID}-19) pandemic. We find that comparatively more misinformation circulates on Twitter, while news media tends to reinforce public health recommendations like social distancing. We find that exposure to social media is associated with misperceptions regarding basic facts about {COVID}-19},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review},
	author = {Bridgman, Aengus and Merkley, Eric and Loewen, Peter John and Owen, Taylor and Ruths, Derek and Teichmann, Lisa and Zhilin, Oleg},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	date = {2020-06-18},
	langid = {american},
}

@article{roozenbeek_susceptibility_nodate,
	title = {Susceptibility to misinformation about {COVID}-19 around the world},
	volume = {7},
	url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsos.201199},
	doi = {10.1098/rsos.201199},
	abstract = {Misinformation about {COVID}-19 is a major threat to public health. Using five national samples from the {UK} (n= 1050 and n= 1150), Ireland (n = 700), the {USA} (n = 700), Spain (n= 700) and Mexico (n= 700), we examine predictors of belief in the most common statements about the virus that contain misinformation. We also investigate the prevalence of belief in {COVID}-19 misinformation across different countries and the role of belief in such misinformation in predicting relevant health behaviours. We find that while public belief in misinformation about {COVID}-19 is not particularly common, a substantial proportion views this type of misinformation as highly reliable in each country surveyed. In addition, a small group of participants find common factual information about the virus highly unreliable. We also find that increased susceptibility to misinformation negatively affects people's self-reported compliance with public health guidance about {COVID}-19, as well as people's willingness to get vaccinated against the virus and to recommend the vaccine to vulnerable friends and family. Across all countries surveyed, we find that higher trust in scientists and having higher numeracy skills were associated with lower susceptibility to coronavirus-related misinformation. Taken together, these results demonstrate a clear link between susceptibility to misinformation and both vaccine hesitancy and a reduced likelihood to comply with health guidance measures, and suggest that interventions which aim to improve critical thinking and trust in science may be a promising avenue for future research.},
	pages = {201199},
	number = {10},
	journaltitle = {Royal Society Open Science},
	author = {Roozenbeek, Jon and Schneider, Claudia R. and Dryhurst, Sarah and Kerr, John and Freeman, Alexandra L. J. and Recchia, Gabriel and van der Bles, Anne Marthe and van der Linden, Sander},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	note = {Publisher: Royal Society},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, fake news, misinformation, vaccine hesitancy},
}

@article{soveri_unwillingness_2021,
	title = {Unwillingness to engage in behaviors that protect against {COVID}-19: the role of conspiracy beliefs, trust, and endorsement of complementary and alternative medicine},
	volume = {21},
	issn = {1471-2458},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-10643-w},
	doi = {10.1186/s12889-021-10643-w},
	shorttitle = {Unwillingness to engage in behaviors that protect against {COVID}-19},
	abstract = {We investigated if people’s response to the official recommendations during the {COVID}-19 pandemic is associated with conspiracy beliefs related to {COVID}-19, a distrust in the sources providing information on {COVID}-19, and an endorsement of complementary and alternative medicine ({CAM}).},
	pages = {684},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {{BMC} Public Health},
	shortjournal = {{BMC} Public Health},
	author = {Soveri, Anna and Karlsson, Linda C. and Antfolk, Jan and Lindfelt, Mikael and Lewandowsky, Stephan},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	date = {2021-04-08},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{CAM}, {COVID}-19, Complementary and alternative medicine, Conspiracy, {NPI}, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, Trust, Vaccine attitudes},
}

@article{brodeur_stay-at-home_2021,
	title = {Stay-at-home orders, social distancing, and trust},
	volume = {34},
	issn = {1432-1475},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00848-z},
	doi = {10.1007/s00148-021-00848-z},
	abstract = {A clear understanding of community response to government decisions is crucial for policy makers and health officials during the {COVID}-19 pandemic. In this study, we document the determinants of implementation and compliance with stay-at-home orders in the {USA}, focusing on trust and social capital. Using cell phone data measuring changes in non-essential trips and average distance traveled, we find that mobility decreases significantly more in high-trust counties than in low-trust counties after the stay-at-home orders are implemented, with larger effects for more stringent orders. We also provide evidence that the estimated effect on post-order compliance is especially large for confidence in the press and governmental institutions, and relatively smaller for confidence in medicine and in science.},
	pages = {1321--1354},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Population Economics},
	shortjournal = {J Popul Econ},
	author = {Brodeur, Abel and Grigoryeva, Idaliya and Kattan, Lamis},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	date = {2021-10-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, H12, I12, I18, Social distancing, Stay-at-home orders, Trust},
}

@article{borgonovi_bowling_2020,
	title = {Bowling together by bowling alone: Social capital and {COVID}-19},
	volume = {265},
	issn = {0277-9536},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953620307206},
	doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113501},
	shorttitle = {Bowling together by bowling alone},
	abstract = {Social capital describes the social bonds that exist within a community and comprises norms of reciprocity and trust as well as social relationships and social networks. We use data from counties in the United States to identify if community level responses to {COVID}-19 during the early phase of the pandemic (February 17 – May 10) depended on levels of social capital. We find that individuals who lived in counties with high levels of social capital reduced mobility faster than individuals living in counties with low levels of social capital and that they especially reduced mobility directed at retail and recreational activities, i.e. non-essential activities with higher potential risk. Difference-in-difference results show that the adoption of shelter-in-place orders ({SIPOs}) in a county, an increase in the number of diagnosed {COVID}-19 cases and a rainy weather were all associated with a decline in mobility, but that effects were heterogenous and depended on community level social capital. Effects were more pronounced in high social capital communities. Based on these findings, we map the level of vulnerability of communities in the United States to {COVID}-19: counties with a large share of the population suffering from pre-existing medical conditions and low levels of community level social capital are especially susceptible to experiencing severe health outcomes because of {COVID}-19.},
	pages = {113501},
	journaltitle = {Social Science \& Medicine},
	shortjournal = {Social Science \& Medicine},
	author = {Borgonovi, Francesca and Andrieu, Elodie},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	date = {2020-11-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Behavioral change, {COVID}-19, Coronavirus, Mobility, Shelter-in-place orders, Social capital, United States},
}

@article{fancourt_cummings_2020,
	title = {The Cummings effect: politics, trust, and behaviours during the {COVID}-19 pandemic},
	volume = {396},
	issn = {0140-6736, 1474-547X},
	url = {https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-67362031690-1/fulltext},
	doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31690-1},
	shorttitle = {The Cummings effect},
	pages = {464--465},
	number = {10249},
	journaltitle = {The Lancet},
	shortjournal = {The Lancet},
	author = {Fancourt, Daisy and Steptoe, Andrew and Wright, Liam},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	date = {2020-08-15},
	pmid = {32771083},
	note = {Publisher: Elsevier},
}

@article{brzezinski_science_2021,
	title = {Science skepticism reduced compliance with {COVID}-19 shelter-in-place policies in the United States},
	volume = {5},
	rights = {2021 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01227-0},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-021-01227-0},
	abstract = {Physical distancing reduces transmission risks and slows the spread of {COVID}-19. Yet compliance with shelter-in-place policies issued by local and regional governments in the United States was uneven and may have been influenced by science skepticism and attitudes towards topics of scientific consensus. Using county–day measures of physical distancing derived from cell phone location data, we demonstrate that the proportion of people who stayed at home after shelter-in-place policies went into effect in March and April 2020 in the United States was significantly lower in counties with a high concentration of science skeptics. These results are robust to controlling for other potential drivers of differential physical distancing, such as political partisanship, income, education and {COVID} severity. Our findings suggest that public health interventions that take local attitudes towards science into account in their messaging may be more effective.},
	pages = {1519--1527},
	number = {11},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Brzezinski, Adam and Kecht, Valentin and Van Dijcke, David and Wright, Austin L.},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	date = {2021-11},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Number: 11
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Economics, Policy, Politics and international relations},
}

@article{bargain_trust_2020,
	title = {Trust and compliance to public health policies in times of {COVID}-19},
	volume = {192},
	issn = {0047-2727},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272720301808},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104316},
	abstract = {While degraded trust and cohesion within a country are often shown to have large socio-economic impacts, they can also have dramatic consequences when compliance is required for collective survival. We illustrate this point in the context of the {COVID}-19 crisis. Policy responses all over the world aim to reduce social interaction and limit contagion. Using data on human mobility and political trust at regional level in Europe, we examine whether the compliance to these containment policies depends on the level of trust in policy makers prior to the crisis. Using a double difference approach around the time of lockdown announcements, we find that high-trust regions decrease their mobility related to non-necessary activities significantly more than low-trust regions. We also exploit country and time variation in treatment using the daily strictness of national policies. The efficiency of policy stringency in terms of mobility reduction significantly increases with trust. The trust effect is nonlinear and increases with the degree of stringency. We assess how the impact of trust on mobility potentially translates in terms of mortality growth rate.},
	pages = {104316},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Public Economics},
	shortjournal = {Journal of Public Economics},
	author = {Bargain, Olivier and Aminjonov, Ulugbek},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	date = {2020-12-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, Policy stringency, Political trust},
}

@article{gadarian_partisanship_2021,
	title = {Partisanship, health behavior, and policy attitudes in the early stages of the {COVID}-19 pandemic},
	volume = {16},
	issn = {1932-6203},
	url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0249596},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0249596},
	abstract = {Objective To study the U.S. public’s health behaviors, attitudes, and policy opinions about {COVID}-19 in the earliest weeks of the national health crisis (March 20–23, 2020). Method We designed and fielded an original representative survey of 3,000 American adults between March 20–23, 2020 to collect data on a battery of 38 health-related behaviors, government policy preferences on {COVID}-19 response and worries about the pandemic. We test for partisan differences {COVID}-19 related policy attitudes and behaviors, measured in three different ways: party affiliation, intended 2020 Presidential vote, and self-placed ideological positioning. Our multivariate approach adjusts for a wide range of individual demographic and geographic characteristics that might confound the relationship between partisanship and health behaviors, attitudes, and preferences. Results We find that partisanship—measured as party identification, support for President Trump, or left-right ideological positioning—explains differences in Americans across a wide range of health behaviors and policy preferences. We find no consistent evidence that controlling for individual news consumption, the local policy environment, and local pandemic-related deaths erases the observed partisan differences in health behaviors, beliefs, and attitudes. In further analyses, we use a {LASSO} regression approach to select predictors, and find that a partisanship indicator is the most commonly selected predictor across the 38 dependent variables that we study. Conclusion Our analysis of individual self-reported behavior, attitudes, and policy preferences in response to {COVID}-19 reveals that partisanship played a central role in shaping individual responses in the earliest months of the {COVID}-19 pandemic. These results indicate that partisan differences in responding to a national public health emergency were entrenched from the earliest days of the pandemic.},
	pages = {e0249596},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	shortjournal = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	author = {Gadarian, Shana Kushner and Goodman, Sara Wallace and Pepinsky, Thomas B.},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	date = {2021-04-07},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Public Library of Science},
	keywords = {Behavioral and social aspects of health, {COVID} 19, Pandemics, Psychological attitudes, Public and occupational health, Public policy, Social distancing, Surveys},
}

@article{wichowsky_effects_2022,
	title = {The effects of partisan framing on {COVID}-19 attitudes: Experimental evidence from early and late pandemic},
	volume = {9},
	issn = {2053-1680},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680221096049},
	doi = {10.1177/20531680221096049},
	shorttitle = {The effects of partisan framing on {COVID}-19 attitudes},
	abstract = {Political polarization has dominated news coverage of Americans’ responses to the {COVID}-19 pandemic. In this research note, we report findings from two experimental studies, in which we present respondents with news stories about {COVID}-19 mitigation measures that emphasize partisan difference or accord. The stories present the same numeric facts about public opinion, but highlight either the partisan gap that existed at the time of the study, or the fact that large majorities of both Republicans and Democrats supported the measures at the time. Results from our first study, conducted late April 2020, show that a media frame drawing attention to shared concern across party lines produced a less polarized response to social-distancing restrictions than a frame that drew attention to partisan difference. Our findings suggest that the extensive media coverage about the red-blue divide in {COVID}-19 opinions reinforced partisan polarization. These results, however, did not replicate in a second study conducted much later in the pandemic. Qualitative data collected across the two studies demonstrate the degree to which polarization had rapidly become a dominant narrative in Americans’ thinking about {COVID}-19.},
	pages = {20531680221096049},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Research \& Politics},
	shortjournal = {Research \& Politics},
	author = {Wichowsky, Amber and Condon, Meghan},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	date = {2022-04-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Ltd},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, Partisan polarization, experiments, public opinion},
}

@article{grossman_political_2020,
	title = {Political partisanship influences behavioral responses to governors’ recommendations for {COVID}-19 prevention in the United States},
	volume = {117},
	url = {https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2007835117},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.2007835117},
	pages = {24144--24153},
	number = {39},
	journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Grossman, Guy and Kim, Soojong and Rexer, Jonah M. and Thirumurthy, Harsha},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	date = {2020-09-29},
	note = {Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
}

@article{goldstein_who_2022,
	title = {Who Do You Trust? The Consequences of Partisanship and Trust for Public Responsiveness to {COVID}-19 Orders},
	volume = {20},
	issn = {1537-5927, 1541-0986},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/who-do-you-trust-the-consequences-of-partisanship-and-trust-for-public-responsiveness-to-covid19-orders/466134E376AD87F52441F26F3BE7D653},
	doi = {10.1017/S1537592721000049},
	shorttitle = {Who Do You Trust?},
	abstract = {Non-uniform compliance with public policy by citizens can undermine the effectiveness of government, particularly during crises. Mitigation policies intended to combat the novel coronavirus offer a real-world measure of citizen compliance, allowing us to examine the determinants of asymmetrical responsiveness. Analyzing county-level cellphone data, we leverage staggered roll-out to estimate the causal effect of stay-at-home orders on mobility using a difference-in-differences strategy. We find movement is significantly curtailed, and examination of descriptive heterogeneous effects suggests the key roles that partisanship and trust play in producing irregular compliance. We find that Republican-leaning counties comply less than Democratic-leaning ones, which we argue underlines the importance of trust in science and acceptance of large-scale government policies for compliance. However, this partisan compliance gap shrinks when directives are given by Republican leaders, suggesting citizens are more trusting of co-partisan leaders. Furthermore, we find that higher levels of social trust increase compliance; yet these gains attenuate or intensify depending upon community-level partisan sentiments. Our study provides a real-world, behavioral measure that demonstrates the influence of partisanship, social trust, and their interaction on citizen welfare. Finally, we argue that our results speak to how trust in government may impact successful containment of the {COVID}-19 pandemic.},
	pages = {412--438},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Goldstein, Daniel A. N. and Wiedemann, Johannes},
	urldate = {2022-07-29},
	date = {2022-06},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
}

@online{noauthor_home_nodate-2,
	title = {Home / Twitter},
	url = {https://twitter.com/home},
	titleaddon = {Twitter},
	urldate = {2022-07-28},
	langid = {english},
}

@online{noauthor_ordered_nodate,
	title = {Ordered Beta Regression: A Parsimonious, Well-Fitting Model for Continuous Data with Lower and Upper Bounds {\textbar} Political Analysis {\textbar} Cambridge Core},
	url = {https://www-cambridge-org.proxy.library.nyu.edu/core/journals/political-analysis/article/ordered-beta-regression-a-parsimonious-wellfitting-model-for-continuous-data-with-lower-and-upper-bounds/89F4141DA16D4FC217809B5EB45EEE83},
	urldate = {2022-07-27},
}

@online{bloomfield_javascript_2020,
	title = {{JavaScript} \& Qualtrics: Best Practices},
	url = {https://medium.com/@mc_bloomfield/javascript-qualtrics-c4bf4fb93fff},
	shorttitle = {{JavaScript} \& Qualtrics},
	abstract = {I’ve worked at Qualtrics for several years. It’s a wonderful platform for surveys, forms, questionnaires, etc. But its use can also be…},
	titleaddon = {Medium},
	author = {Bloomfield, Matt},
	urldate = {2022-07-25},
	date = {2020-02-24},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{bryan_behavioural_2021,
	title = {Behavioural science is unlikely to change the world without a heterogeneity revolution},
	volume = {5},
	rights = {2021 Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01143-3},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-021-01143-3},
	abstract = {In the past decade, behavioural science has gained influence in policymaking but suffered a crisis of confidence in the replicability of its findings. Here, we describe a nascent heterogeneity revolution that we believe these twin historical trends have triggered. This revolution will be defined by the recognition that most treatment effects are heterogeneous, so the variation in effect estimates across studies that defines the replication crisis is to be expected as long as heterogeneous effects are studied without a systematic approach to sampling and moderation. When studied systematically, heterogeneity can be leveraged to build more complete theories of causal mechanism that could inform nuanced and dependable guidance to policymakers. We recommend investment in shared research infrastructure to make it feasible to study behavioural interventions in heterogeneous and generalizable samples, and suggest low-cost steps researchers can take immediately to avoid being misled by heterogeneity and begin to learn from it instead.},
	pages = {980--989},
	number = {8},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Bryan, Christopher J. and Tipton, Elizabeth and Yeager, David S.},
	urldate = {2022-07-25},
	date = {2021-08},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Number: 8
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Human behaviour, Policy, Research management, Science, technology and society},
}

@online{noauthor_potential_nodate,
	title = {Potential fabrication in research images threatens key theory of Alzheimer’s disease {\textbar} Science {\textbar} {AAAS}},
	url = {https://www.science.org/content/article/potential-fabrication-research-images-threatens-key-theory-alzheimers-disease},
	urldate = {2022-07-22},
}

@article{bates_note_1985,
	title = {A Note on Taxation, Development, and Representative Government},
	volume = {14},
	issn = {0032-3292},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/003232928501400102},
	doi = {10.1177/003232928501400102},
	pages = {53--70},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Politics \& Society},
	shortjournal = {Politics \& Society},
	author = {Bates, Robert H. and Donald Lien, Da-Hsiang},
	urldate = {2022-07-21},
	date = {1985-03-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Inc},
}

@article{mitchell_what_2019,
	title = {What money can’t buy: Wealth, inequality, and economic satisfaction in the rentier state},
	volume = {72},
	shorttitle = {What money can’t buy},
	pages = {75--89},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Political Research Quarterly},
	author = {Mitchell, Jocelyn Sage and Gengler, Justin J.},
	date = {2019},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Sage {CA}: Los Angeles, {CA}},
}

@article{kyle_local_2018,
	title = {Local Corruption and Popular Support for Fuel Subsidy Reform in Indonesia},
	volume = {51},
	issn = {0010-4140},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414018758755},
	doi = {10.1177/0010414018758755},
	abstract = {This article examines the role played by local governments in shaping resistance to reforming fiscally and environmentally disastrous fuel subsidies. Shifting from universal-access social programs, like fuel subsidies, to targeted programs requires vesting authority with local politicians and bureaucrats, whom the state relies on to identify poor households and to deliver benefits. Where local governments are corrupt, citizens find promises to replace fuel subsidies with targeted spending less credible and resistance to reform is higher. Using household survey data from Indonesia, this article finds that corruption in the implementation of targeted transfer programs increases resistance to fuel subsidy reform among the poor citizens who consume the least fuel and who stand to benefit the most from targeted programs. Findings suggest that improving capacity within subnational governments to deliver social programs is important in developing public support for reform.},
	pages = {1472--1503},
	number = {11},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	shortjournal = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Kyle, Jordan},
	urldate = {2022-07-21},
	date = {2018-09-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Inc},
	keywords = {Indonesia, corruption and patronage, fuel subsidies, social welfare programs, subnational politics},
}

@online{noauthor_inbox_nodate-1,
	title = {Inbox (3) - robertkubinec378@gmail.com - Gmail},
	url = {https://mail.google.com/mail/u/1/#inbox},
	urldate = {2022-07-19},
}

@online{noauthor_inbox_nodate-2,
	title = {Inbox - rmk7@nyu.edu - New York University Mail},
	url = {https://mail.google.com/mail/u/2/#inbox},
	urldate = {2022-07-12},
}

@article{farag_opposition_2022,
	title = {Opposition inclusion and exclusion in the Arab world: Evidence from a new dataset},
	volume = {0},
	issn = {1362-9395},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13629395.2022.2085951},
	doi = {10.1080/13629395.2022.2085951},
	shorttitle = {Opposition inclusion and exclusion in the Arab world},
	abstract = {The literature on the Arab world is full of accounts on how authoritarian regimes manipulate the secular-Islamist cleavage to remain in power. This literature, however, has two gaps. First, there is no comparative data on the regional patterns of inclusion and exclusion that characterize regime-opposition relations in the Arab world. Second, studies usually do not account for the different shades of secular and Islamist groups. This research note bridges both gaps by introducing an original dataset: the Arab Opposition Power Relations dataset. The dataset codes power relations between four secular and Islamist groups in 13 Arab countries between 2005 and 2016 to a total of 624 group observations. Descriptive analysis of the dataset illustrates the changing patterns of inclusion and exclusion within and across countries both before and after the 2011 Arab uprisings. In so doing, the dataset opens new research frontiers for the vibrant literature on the resilience of authoritarianism in the Arab world.},
	pages = {1--13},
	number = {0},
	journaltitle = {Mediterranean Politics},
	author = {Farag, Mahmoud},
	urldate = {2022-07-08},
	date = {2022-06-10},
	note = {Publisher: Routledge
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/13629395.2022.2085951},
	keywords = {Arab world, Islamists, Secularists, authoritarianism, dataset},
}

@misc{arel-bundock_quantitative_2022,
	title = {Quantitative Political Science Research is Greatly Underpowered},
	url = {https://osf.io/7vy2f/},
	doi = {10.31219/osf.io/7vy2f},
	abstract = {We analyze the statistical power of political science research by collating over 16,000 hypothesis tests from about 2,000 articles. Even with generous assumptions, the median analysis has about 10\% power, and only about 1 in 10 tests have at least 80\% power to detect the consensus effects reported in the literature. There is also substantial heterogeneity in tests across research areas, with some being characterized by high-power but most having very low power. To contextualize our findings, we survey political methodologists to assess their expectations about power levels. Most methodologists greatly overestimate the statistical power of political science research.},
	publisher = {{OSF} Preprints},
	author = {Arel-Bundock, Vincent and Briggs, Ryan and Doucouliagos, Hristos and Aviña, Marco Mendoza and Stanley, T. D.},
	urldate = {2022-07-06},
	date = {2022-07-05},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Models and Methods, Political Science, Social and Behavioral Sciences, meta-analysis, political science, statistical power},
}

@online{ckubinec_robert_beyond_nodate,
	title = {Beyond Political Connections : A Measurement Model Approach to Estimating Firm-level Political Influence in 41 Economies},
	url = {https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099855207052233298/IDU0158ecaac01be104fd80a04a03c9cf1992a74},
	shorttitle = {Beyond Political Connections},
	abstract = {This paper considers the political influence of private firms. While such influence is frequently discussed, there is limited analysis of how firms combine political .},
	titleaddon = {World Bank},
	type = {Text/{HTML}},
	author = {C.,Kubinec ,Robert, David, Francis},
	urldate = {2022-07-06},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{chen_capital_2022,
	title = {Capital Mobility and Taxation: State–Business Collusion in China},
	volume = {66},
	issn = {0020-8833},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqab096},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqab096},
	shorttitle = {Capital Mobility and Taxation},
	abstract = {Do more mobile firms pay lower taxes? Conventional wisdom argues that capital mobility creates downward pressure on corporate taxes, as firms can threaten to exit. Nevertheless, empirical findings are highly mixed and hard to reconcile, partly due to a lack of data at the microlevel. Using two comprehensive panel data sets with more than 780,000 Chinese firms over two decades, we find that firms with higher shares of mobile capital pay higher effective tax rates. We contend that this counterintuitive finding results from the strategic interaction between firms and governments. Knowing their vulnerability and sunk cost, firms with more fixed assets were more active in protecting themselves by bribing and colluding with local officials. Meanwhile, officials were more willing to seek bribes from these firms in exchange for tax cuts. In contrast, mobile firms were disadvantaged. Although capital mobility may provide additional bargaining power, firms with fixed assets can overcome this advantage through state–business collusion. Our quantitative and qualitative evidence show that fixed firms paid lower taxes in cities with cozy government–business relations. However, such advantages decreased after the launch of anti-corruption campaigns and in cities with higher fiscal transparency.},
	pages = {sqab096},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {International Studies Quarterly},
	shortjournal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Chen, Ling and Hollenbach, Florian M},
	urldate = {2022-06-30},
	date = {2022-03-01},
}

@article{jappe_professional_2020,
	title = {Professional standards in bibliometric research evaluation? A meta-evaluation of European assessment practice 2005–2019},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {1932-6203},
	url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0231735},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0231735},
	shorttitle = {Professional standards in bibliometric research evaluation?},
	abstract = {Despite growing demand for practicable methods of research evaluation, the use of bibliometric indicators remains controversial. This paper examines performance assessment practice in Europe—first, identifying the most commonly used bibliometric methods and, second, identifying the actors who have defined wide-spread practices. The framework of this investigation is Abbott’s theory of professions, and I argue that indicator-based research assessment constitutes a potential jurisdiction for both individual experts and expert organizations. This investigation was conducted using a search methodology that yielded 138 evaluation studies from 21 {EU} countries, covering the period 2005 to 2019. Structured content analysis revealed the following findings: (1) Bibliometric research assessment is most frequently performed in the Nordic countries, the Netherlands, Italy, and the United Kingdom. (2) The Web of Science ({WoS}) is the dominant database used for public research assessment in Europe. (3) Expert organizations invest in the improvement of {WoS} citation data, and set technical standards with regards to data quality. (4) Citation impact is most frequently assessed with reference to international scientific fields. (5) The {WoS} classification of science fields retained its function as a de facto reference standard for research performance assessment. A detailed comparison of assessment practices between five dedicated organizations and other individual bibliometric experts suggests that corporate ownership and limited access to the most widely used citation databases have had a restraining effect on the development and diffusion of professional bibliometric methods during this period.},
	pages = {e0231735},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	shortjournal = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	author = {Jappe, Arlette},
	urldate = {2022-06-22},
	date = {2020-04-20},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Public Library of Science},
	keywords = {Bibliometrics, Citation analysis, Italian people, Professions, Research assessment, Research funding, Research quality assessment, Scientific publishing},
}

@article{pfrieger_teamtree_2021,
	title = {{TeamTree} analysis: A new approach to evaluate scientific production},
	volume = {16},
	issn = {1932-6203},
	url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0253847},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0253847},
	shorttitle = {{TeamTree} analysis},
	abstract = {Advances in science and technology depend on the work of research teams and the publication of results through peer-reviewed articles representing a growing socio-economic resource. Current methods to mine the scientific literature regarding a field of interest focus on content, but the workforce credited by authorship remains largely unexplored. Notably, appropriate measures of scientific production are debated. Here, a new bibliometric approach named {TeamTree} analysis is introduced that visualizes the development and composition of the workforce driving a field. A new citation-independent measure that scales with the H index estimates impact based on publication record, genealogical ties and collaborative connections. This author-centered approach complements existing tools to mine the scientific literature and to evaluate research across disciplines.},
	pages = {e0253847},
	number = {7},
	journaltitle = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	shortjournal = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	author = {Pfrieger, Frank W.},
	urldate = {2022-06-22},
	date = {2021-07-21},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Public Library of Science},
	keywords = {Aplysia, Bibliometrics, {CRISPRs}, Circadian rhythms, Citation analysis, Medicine and health sciences, Organoids, Peer review},
}

@article{waltman_review_2016,
	title = {A review of the literature on citation impact indicators},
	volume = {10},
	issn = {1751-1577},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1751157715300900},
	doi = {10.1016/j.joi.2016.02.007},
	abstract = {Citation impact indicators nowadays play an important role in research evaluation, and consequently these indicators have received a lot of attention in the bibliometric and scientometric literature. This paper provides an in-depth review of the literature on citation impact indicators. First, an overview is given of the literature on bibliographic databases that can be used to calculate citation impact indicators (Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar). Next, selected topics in the literature on citation impact indicators are reviewed in detail. The first topic is the selection of publications and citations to be included in the calculation of citation impact indicators. The second topic is the normalization of citation impact indicators, in particular normalization for field differences. Counting methods for dealing with co-authored publications are the third topic, and citation impact indicators for journals are the last topic. The paper concludes by offering some recommendations for future research.},
	pages = {365--391},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Informetrics},
	shortjournal = {Journal of Informetrics},
	author = {Waltman, Ludo},
	urldate = {2022-06-22},
	date = {2016-05-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Bibliographic database, Citation analysis, Citation impact indicator, Counting method, Normalization},
}

@article{braithwaite_comprehensive_2019,
	title = {Comprehensive Researcher Achievement Model ({CRAM}): a framework for measuring researcher achievement, impact and influence derived from a systematic literature review of metrics and models},
	volume = {9},
	rights = {© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under {CC} {BY}-{NC}. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by {BMJ}.. This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial ({CC} {BY}-{NC} 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.},
	issn = {2044-6055, 2044-6055},
	url = {https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/9/3/e025320},
	doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2018-025320},
	shorttitle = {Comprehensive Researcher Achievement Model ({CRAM})},
	abstract = {Objectives Effective researcher assessment is key to decisions about funding allocations, promotion and tenure. We aimed to identify what is known about methods for assessing researcher achievements, leading to a new composite assessment model.
Design We systematically reviewed the literature via the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Protocols framework.
Data sources All Web of Science databases (including Core Collection, {MEDLINE} and {BIOSIS} Citation Index) to the end of 2017.
Eligibility criteria (1) English language, (2) published in the last 10 years (2007–2017), (3) full text was available and (4) the article discussed an approach to the assessment of an individual researcher’s achievements.
Data extraction and synthesis Articles were allocated among four pairs of reviewers for screening, with each pair randomly assigned 5\% of their allocation to review concurrently against inclusion criteria. Inter-rater reliability was assessed using Cohen’s Kappa (ĸ). The ĸ statistic showed agreement ranging from moderate to almost perfect (0.4848–0.9039). Following screening, selected articles underwent full-text review and bias was assessed.
Results Four hundred and seventy-eight articles were included in the final review. Established approaches developed prior to our inclusion period (eg, citations and outputs, h-index and journal impact factor) remained dominant in the literature and in practice. New bibliometric methods and models emerged in the last 10 years including: measures based on {PageRank} algorithms or ‘altmetric’ data, methods to apply peer judgement and techniques to assign values to publication quantity and quality. Each assessment method tended to prioritise certain aspects of achievement over others.
Conclusions All metrics and models focus on an element or elements at the expense of others. A new composite design, the Comprehensive Researcher Achievement Model ({CRAM}), is presented, which supersedes past anachronistic models. The {CRAM} is modifiable to a range of applications.},
	pages = {e025320},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {{BMJ} Open},
	author = {Braithwaite, Jeffrey and Herkes, Jessica and Churruca, Kate and Long, Janet C. and Pomare, Chiara and Boyling, Claire and Bierbaum, Mia and Clay-Williams, Robyn and Rapport, Frances and Shih, Patti and Hogden, Anne and Ellis, Louise A. and Ludlow, Kristiana and Austin, Elizabeth and Seah, Rebecca and {McPherson}, Elise and Hibbert, Peter D. and Westbrook, Johanna},
	urldate = {2022-06-22},
	date = {2019-03-01},
	langid = {english},
	pmid = {30928941},
	note = {Publisher: British Medical Journal Publishing Group
Section: Research methods},
	keywords = {Comprehensive Researcher Achievement Model ({CRAM}), citations, h-index, journal impact factor, outputs, research metrics, researcher assessment},
}

@article{franceschini_novel_2013,
	title = {A novel approach for estimating the omitted-citation rate of bibliometric databases with an application to the field of bibliometrics},
	volume = {64},
	issn = {1532-2890},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/asi.22898},
	doi = {10.1002/asi.22898},
	abstract = {One of the most significant inaccuracies of bibliometric databases is that of omitted citations, namely, missing electronic links between a paper of interest and some citing papers, which are (or should be) covered by the database. This paper proposes a novel approach for estimating a database's omitted-citation rate, based on the combined use of 2 or more bibliometric databases. A statistical model is also presented for (a) estimating the “true” number of citations received by individual papers or sets of papers, and (b) defining an appropriate confidence interval. The proposed approach could represent a first step towards the definition of a standard for evaluating the accuracy level of databases.},
	pages = {2149--2156},
	number = {10},
	journaltitle = {Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology},
	author = {Franceschini, Fiorenzo and Maisano, Domenico and Mastrogiacomo, Luca},
	urldate = {2022-06-22},
	date = {2013},
	langid = {english},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/asi.22898},
	keywords = {bibliometrics, citation analysis},
}

@article{bansak_beyond_2021,
	title = {Beyond the breaking point? Survey satisficing in conjoint experiments},
	volume = {9},
	issn = {2049-8470, 2049-8489},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/abs/beyond-the-breaking-point-survey-satisficing-in-conjoint-experiments/47EBFC9D8CE2CA88D6C01870192F8956},
	doi = {10.1017/psrm.2019.13},
	shorttitle = {Beyond the breaking point?},
	abstract = {Recent years have seen a renaissance of conjoint survey designs within social science. To date, however, researchers have lacked guidance on how many attributes they can include within conjoint profiles before survey satisficing leads to unacceptable declines in response quality. This paper addresses that question using pre-registered, two-stage experiments examining choices among hypothetical candidates for {US} Senate or hotel rooms. In each experiment, we use the first stage to identify attributes which are perceived to be uncorrelated with the attribute of interest, so that their effects are not masked by those of the core attributes. In the second stage, we randomly assign respondents to conjoint designs with varying numbers of those filler attributes. We report the results of these experiments implemented via Amazon's Mechanical Turk and Survey Sampling International. They demonstrate that our core quantities of interest are generally stable, with relatively modest increases in survey satisficing when respondents face large numbers of attributes.},
	pages = {53--71},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Political Science Research and Methods},
	author = {Bansak, Kirk and Hainmueller, Jens and Hopkins, Daniel J. and Yamamoto, Teppei},
	urldate = {2022-06-22},
	date = {2021-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
	keywords = {Conjoint analysis, response bias, survey experiments, survey satisficing},
}

@article{lefevre_algerian_2017,
	title = {The Algerian economy from ‘oil curse’ to ‘diversification’?},
	volume = {22},
	issn = {1362-9387},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13629387.2017.1281561},
	doi = {10.1080/13629387.2017.1281561},
	pages = {177--181},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of North African Studies},
	author = {Lefèvre, Raphaël},
	urldate = {2022-06-14},
	date = {2017-03-15},
	note = {Publisher: Routledge
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/13629387.2017.1281561},
}

@report{havlik_economic_2014,
	title = {Economic Consequences of the Ukraine Conflict},
	rights = {http://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungen},
	url = {https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/204257},
	abstract = {The Ukraine conflict is having serious consequences not only for Russia and Ukraine, but it also potentially threatens to damage the still frail economic recovery in Europe. In Ukraine, which is the main victim of the conflict, the economy may decline by up to 8\% this year. In Russia, the costs of the conflict are estimated to be in the tune of 1\% of {GDP} in 2014-2016, primarily on account of increased investment risks. The effects on the individual {EU} countries differ depending on their exposure to the Russian market the Baltic States, Finland and several other new {EU} Member States are generally most affected. The impact on Austria is expected to be relatively modest. Austria is not overly exposed to the Russian market. For the {EU} as a whole, there are five industries where the share of Russia in total exports exceeds 3\% textiles, pharmaceuticals, electrical equipment, machinery and transport equipment. On the assumption of a 10\% loss in exports of goods and services to Russia, the estimated {GDP} loss would be about 0.4\% for Lithuania and Estonia, and less than 0.1\% for Austria. In absolute figures, Germany might lose around {EUR} 3 billion, followed by Italy ({EUR} 1.4 billion), France, Great Britain and Poland ({EUR} 0.8 billion each). Austria could lose close to {EUR} 300 million in this scenario. The estimated impact of Russia's ban on agro-food imports from the {EU} imposed in August 2014 is expected to be the highest in the Baltics. These losses are undoubtedly painful, yet manageable (a trade decline bigger than 10\% would obviously lead to greater losses). The question is whether these losses are justifiable and will achieve the desired effects – to change Russia's behaviour in Ukraine and beyond.},
	number = {14},
	institution = {Policy Notes and Reports},
	type = {Research Report},
	author = {Havlik, Peter},
	urldate = {2022-06-14},
	date = {2014},
}

@article{chaisty_critical_2018,
	title = {Critical election or frozen cleavages? How voters chose parties in the 2014 Ukrainian parliamentary election},
	volume = {56},
	issn = {0261-3794},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026137941830057X},
	doi = {10.1016/j.electstud.2018.08.009},
	shorttitle = {Critical election or frozen cleavages?},
	abstract = {Ukraine's 2014 parliamentary election, which took place in the aftermath of the Maidan revolution of February 2014 and at the height of war in the East of the country, appeared to produce significant party political realignment. In particular, support for parties that had represented the Russian element of the ethno-linguistic/geo-political cleavage that had dominated electoral competition in Ukraine since independence collapsed. The paper considers whether 2014 was a ‘critical’ or ‘realigning’ election for Ukraine. Our argument is that the 2014 election lacked the conditions that critical elections theory posits as necessary and that, on the contrary, there are strong theoretical reasons to expect cleavage stability in these volatile electoral circumstances. We offer evidence for this continuity drawn from surveys undertaken among Ukrainian voters from 1995 to 2014.},
	pages = {158--169},
	journaltitle = {Electoral Studies},
	shortjournal = {Electoral Studies},
	author = {Chaisty, Paul and Whitefield, Stephen},
	urldate = {2022-06-14},
	date = {2018-12-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{corrales_democratic_2020,
	title = {Democratic backsliding through electoral irregularities: The case of Venezuela},
	issn = {0924-0608},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/26936902},
	shorttitle = {Democratic backsliding through electoral irregularities},
	abstract = {This article discusses how electoral irregularities contributed to democratic backsliding in Venezuela under chavista rule (1999-2019). It draws from an original database of electoral irregularities created from primary and secondary sources covering a total of 24 electoral contests. I find that Venezuela experienced 117 electoral irregularities during this twenty-year period. Almost every electoral contest exhibited one irregularity, if not more. Electoral irregularities served two goals: to provide double insurance for the ruling party, and to encourage abstentionism (and divisions) across the opposition. They also increased every time the ruling party felt more electorally threatened. The article proposes a typology of irregularities applicable to other cases. It also evaluates how the opposition responded to the rise of irregularities, pointing out strategies that failed and those that worked. Este artículo discute cómo las irregularidades electorales contribuyeron al retroceso democrático en Venezuela bajo gobiernos chavistas (1999-2019). Se fundamenta en una base de datos inédita de irregularidades electorales creada a partir de fuentes primarias y secundarias que cubren un total de 24 procesos electorales. Venezuela cometió 117 irregularidades electorales durante este período de veinte años. En casi todos los procesos electorales hubo al menos una irregularidad. Las irregularidades electorales cumplieron dos objetivos: proporcionar un doble seguro para el partido gobernante y alentar la abstención (y la división) en toda la oposición. También aumentaron cada vez que el partido gobernante se vio más amenazado electoralmente. El artículo propone una tipología de irregularidades aplicables en otros casos. También evalúa cómo respondió la oposición al aumento de las irregularidades, señalando las estrategias que fallaron y las que funcionaron.},
	pages = {41--65},
	number = {109},
	journaltitle = {European Review of Latin American and Caribbean Studies / Revista Europea de Estudios Latinoamericanos y del Caribe},
	author = {Corrales, Javier},
	urldate = {2022-06-14},
	date = {2020},
	note = {Publisher: Centrum voor Studie en Documentatie van Latijns Amerika ({CEDLA})},
}

@article{lust-okar_elections_2006,
	title = {Elections under authoritarianism: Preliminary lessons from Jordan},
	volume = {13},
	issn = {1351-0347},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13510340600579359},
	doi = {10.1080/13510340600579359},
	shorttitle = {Elections under authoritarianism},
	abstract = {This study examines the politics of elections in authoritarian regimes, focusing on Jordan. Specifically, it considers (1) what is the role of elections in authoritarian regimes? (2) How can we understand voter behaviour in authoritarian elections? (3) How and why do candidates participate in elections? (4) How do state elites manage electoral competition? The fundamental contention is that elections under authoritarianism are an important arena for competition, but one over patronage, not policy. This has profound effects on electoral politics. Voters generally cast their ballots for those who can, and will, deliver goods; that is, they vote for candidates who maintain good relations with ruling elites, and with whom the voters have personal ties. Elites are similarly more likely to run in elections if they do not oppose the regime. The result is a pro-regime bias in parliaments, even in the absence of regime manipulation. Consequently, in contrast to conventional wisdom, elections are neither pre-determined ‘contests’ under the ruling elites' full control, nor are they major struggles between opposition and the regime; rather, elections in even very repressive authoritarian regimes are often true competitions that help to stabilize the regime. Authoritarian rulers can thus generally rely on institutions – not ballot-box stuffing – to manage elections, using districting and electoral laws to favour supporters. The study concludes with a discussion of implications for democracy promotion programmes.},
	pages = {456--471},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Democratization},
	author = {Lust-Okar, Ellen},
	urldate = {2022-06-14},
	date = {2006-06-01},
	note = {Publisher: Routledge
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/13510340600579359},
	keywords = {Jordan, Middle East, authoritarianism, democratization, elections},
}

@article{ryan_political_2011,
	title = {Political Opposition and Reform Coalitions in Jordan},
	volume = {38},
	issn = {1353-0194},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2011.621699},
	doi = {10.1080/13530194.2011.621699},
	abstract = {Jordanian politics has seen decades of pro-reform and pro-democracy political activism, but with little effective change on the Jordanian political system itself. This analysis explains how and why the regime has resisted more than cosmetic reform and democratic change. It also examines in detail old and new avenues of opposition reformist activism in the kingdom, from leftist political parties and the Islamist movement to new forms of pro-democracy activism in the form of grassroots coalitions, youth movements and social media activism. As both government and opposition in Jordan are affected by the 2011 Arab uprisings, this analysis examines the past and present possibilities for democratic political opposition and for an effective and unified coalition for reform in Jordan.},
	pages = {367--390},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies},
	author = {Ryan, Curtis R.},
	urldate = {2022-06-14},
	date = {2011-12-01},
	note = {Publisher: Routledge
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2011.621699},
}

@article{daadaoui_rituals_2010,
	title = {Rituals of Power and Political Parties in Morocco: Limited Elections as Positional Strategies},
	volume = {46},
	issn = {0026-3206},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/00263201003612872},
	doi = {10.1080/00263201003612872},
	shorttitle = {Rituals of Power and Political Parties in Morocco},
	abstract = {The article argues that the monarchy's religious authority and its use of rituals of power limit the ability of political parties to contest the monarchy's legitimacy. It goes beyond most institutionalist accounts of authoritarian persistence by exploring the micro-dynamics of symbolic power and the extent to which the regime's ritualization of power creates a political culture conducive to the monarchy's supremacy in the socio-political realm, thus promoting regime stability in Morocco. These rituals have been institutionalized in the political system and have become part of the political discourse in Morocco. The monarchy's religious authority and its use of rituals of power impede the ability political parties to mobilize and to penetrate Moroccan society, and force them to adopt positional strategies in limited elections.},
	pages = {195--219},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Middle Eastern Studies},
	author = {Daadaoui, Mohamed},
	urldate = {2022-06-14},
	date = {2010-03-01},
	note = {Publisher: Routledge
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/00263201003612872},
}

@article{lindberg_v-dem_2014,
	title = {V-Dem: A new way to measure democracy},
	volume = {25},
	shorttitle = {V-Dem},
	pages = {159--169},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Democracy},
	author = {Lindberg, Staffan I. and Coppedge, Michael and Gerring, John and Teorell, Jan},
	date = {2014},
	note = {Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press},
}

@report{rosenzweig_survey_2020,
	title = {Survey sampling in the Global South using Facebook advertisements},
	url = {https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/dka8f/},
	abstract = {Survey research in the Global South traditionally requires large budgets and lengthy fieldwork, for which researchers hire local enumerators to conduct face-to-face surveys with respondents. However, much of the world’s population is now digitally accessible, offering an opportunity for researchers with limited budgets and those seeking to study settings where in-person contact is impossible, such as natural disasters, violent conflicts, and pandemics. In this paper, we evaluate whether Facebook advertising can be used to cost-effectively generate representative survey samples in the Global South. We introduce a framework for evaluating quality in Facebook survey samples, highlighting key trade-offs for researchers considering the platform. We then quota-sample respondents in two countries: Mexico (n=5,168) and Kenya (n=1,452) to evaluate how well these samples perform on a diverse set of survey indicators related to both internal and external validity. We find that while the Facebook platform can quickly and cheaply recruit respondents, these samples tend to be more male, more educated, and more urban than the overall national populations. Applying post-stratification weighting after oversampling key demographic variables ameliorates, but does not fully overcome, these initial sample imbalances. Our analysis demonstrates the considerable potential of Facebook advertisements to cost-effectively conduct research in diverse global settings.},
	institution = {{SocArXiv}},
	author = {Rosenzweig, Leah and Bergquist, Parrish and Pham, Katherine Hoffmann and Rampazzo, Francesco and Mildenberger, Matto},
	urldate = {2022-06-08},
	date = {2020-10-15},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.31235/osf.io/dka8f},
	note = {type: article},
	keywords = {Models and Methods, Political Science, Social and Behavioral Sciences, facebook, kenya, mexico, quota sampling, survey},
}

@article{twyman_getting_2008,
	title = {Getting It Right: {YouGov} and Online Survey Research in Britain},
	volume = {18},
	issn = {1745-7289},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17457280802305169},
	doi = {10.1080/17457280802305169},
	shorttitle = {Getting It Right},
	abstract = {The past two decades have witnessed significant changes in how survey research is conducted in Britain. One of the most important innovations is the use of national internet surveys. Internet surveys are now used by the national media and the British Election Study to provide information on party support and the dynamics of public opinion on a wide variety of topics. The survey house {YouGov} has played a pioneering role in these developments. {YouGov}’s track record of “getting it right”, i.e., of providing accurate forecasts of the results of several major elections, has convinced many – not all – observers that online surveys will have a major role to play in future studies of voting and elections. This paper describes the historical development and current status of internet polling in Britain, focusing on the survey methods employed by {YouGov}. The paper concludes by discussing future innovations in online survey research.},
	pages = {343--354},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties},
	author = {Twyman, Joe},
	urldate = {2022-06-08},
	date = {2008-11-01},
	note = {Publisher: Routledge
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/17457280802305169},
}

@book{rubin_rulers_2017,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {Rulers, Religion, and Riches: Why the West Got Rich and the Middle East Did Not},
	isbn = {978-1-107-03681-9},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/rulers-religion-and-riches/C0CC43A9F5D60820515CB878574E6E24},
	series = {Cambridge Studies in Economics, Choice, and Society},
	shorttitle = {Rulers, Religion, and Riches},
	abstract = {For centuries following the spread of Islam, the Middle East was far ahead of Europe. Yet, the modern economy was born in Europe. Why was it not born in the Middle East? In this book Jared Rubin examines the role that Islam played in this reversal of fortunes. It argues that the religion itself is not to blame; the importance of religious legitimacy in Middle Eastern politics was the primary culprit. Muslim religious authorities were given an important seat at the political bargaining table, which they used to block important advancements such as the printing press and lending at interest. In Europe, however, the Church played a weaker role in legitimizing rule, especially where Protestantism spread (indeed, the Reformation was successful due to the spread of printing, which was blocked in the Middle East). It was precisely in those Protestant nations, especially England and the Dutch Republic, where the modern economy was born.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Rubin, Jared},
	urldate = {2022-06-07},
	date = {2017},
	doi = {10.1017/9781139568272},
}

@article{cronert_precaution_2022,
	title = {Precaution and proportionality in pandemic politics: democracy, state capacity, and {COVID}-19-related school closures around the world},
	issn = {0143-814X, 1469-7815},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-public-policy/article/precaution-and-proportionality-in-pandemic-politics-democracy-state-capacity-and-covid19related-school-closures-around-the-world/02A4A423FDC14E3AC6E828115D8E546C},
	doi = {10.1017/S0143814X22000101},
	shorttitle = {Precaution and proportionality in pandemic politics},
	abstract = {The {COVID}-19 pandemic triggered a globally spread—but differently timed—implementation of school closures and other disruptive containment measures as governments worldwide intervened to curb transmission of disease. This study argues that the timing of such disruptive interventions reflects how governments balance the principles of precaution and proportionality in their pandemic decision-making. A theory is proposed of how their trade-off is impacted by two interacting institutional factors: electoral democratic institutions, which incentivise political leaders to increasingly favour precaution, and high state administrative capacity, which instead makes a proportional strategy involving later containment measures more administratively and politically feasible. Global patterns consistent with this theory are documented among 170 countries in early 2020, using Cox models of school closures and other non-pharmaceutical interventions. Corroborating the theorised mechanisms, additional results indicate that electoral competition prompts democratic leaders’ faster response, and that this mechanism is weaker where professional state agencies have more influence over policymaking.},
	pages = {1--25},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Public Policy},
	author = {Cronert, Axel},
	urldate = {2022-06-03},
	date = {2022-05-27},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19/{SARS}-{CoV}-2, blame avoidance, pandemic response, political competition, political–administrative relationships, proportionality principle},
}

@article{krieger_tale_2016,
	title = {The tale wagged by the {DAG}: broadening the scope of causal inference and explanation for epidemiology},
	volume = {45},
	issn = {0300-5771},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyw114},
	doi = {10.1093/ije/dyw114},
	shorttitle = {The tale wagged by the {DAG}},
	abstract = {‘Causal inference’, in 21st century epidemiology, has notably come to stand for a
specific approach, one focused primarily on counterfactual and potential outcome reasoning
and using particular representations, such as directed acyclic graphs ({DAGs}) and Bayesian
causal nets. In this essay, we suggest that in epidemiology no one causal approach should
drive the questions asked or delimit what counts as useful evidence. Robust causal
inference instead comprises a complex narrative, created by scientists appraising, from
diverse perspectives, different strands of evidence produced by myriad methods. {DAGs} can
of course be useful, but should not alone wag the causal tale. To make our case, we first
address key conceptual issues, after which we offer several concrete examples illustrating
how the newly favoured methods, despite their strengths, can also: (i) limit who and what
may be deemed a ‘cause’, thereby narrowing the scope of the field; and (ii) lead to
erroneous causal inference, especially if key biological and social assumptions about
parameters are poorly conceived, thereby potentially causing harm. As an alternative, we
propose that the field of epidemiology consider judicious use of the broad and flexible
framework of ‘inference to the best explanation’, an approach perhaps best developed by
Peter Lipton, a philosopher of science who frequently employed epidemiologically relevant
examples. This stance requires not only that we be open to being pluralists about both
causation and evidence but also that we rise to the challenge of forging explanations
that, in Lipton’s words, aspire to ‘scope, precision, mechanism, unification and
simplicity’.},
	pages = {1787--1808},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {International Journal of Epidemiology},
	shortjournal = {International Journal of Epidemiology},
	author = {Krieger, Nancy and Davey Smith, George},
	urldate = {2022-06-02},
	date = {2016-12-01},
}

@article{janzing_quantifying_2013,
	title = {Quantifying causal influences},
	volume = {41},
	issn = {0090-5364},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1203.6502},
	doi = {10.1214/13-AOS1145},
	abstract = {Many methods for causal inference generate directed acyclic graphs ({DAGs}) that formalize causal relations between \$n\$ variables. Given the joint distribution on all these variables, the {DAG} contains all information about how intervening on one variable changes the distribution of the other \$n-1\$ variables. However, quantifying the causal influence of one variable on another one remains a nontrivial question. Here we propose a set of natural, intuitive postulates that a measure of causal strength should satisfy. We then introduce a communication scenario, where edges in a {DAG} play the role of channels that can be locally corrupted by interventions. Causal strength is then the relative entropy distance between the old and the new distribution. Many other measures of causal strength have been proposed, including average causal effect, transfer entropy, directed information, and information flow. We explain how they fail to satisfy the postulates on simple {DAGs} of \${\textbackslash}leq3\$ nodes. Finally, we investigate the behavior of our measure on time-series, supporting our claims with experiments on simulated data.},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {The Annals of Statistics},
	shortjournal = {Ann. Statist.},
	author = {Janzing, Dominik and Balduzzi, David and Grosse-Wentrup, Moritz and Schölkopf, Bernhard},
	urldate = {2022-06-01},
	date = {2013-10-01},
	eprinttype = {arxiv},
	eprint = {1203.6502 [math, stat]},
	keywords = {Mathematics - Statistics Theory},
}

@report{kubinec_getting_2022,
	title = {Getting Off the Gold Standard: A Holistic Approach to Causal Inference with Entropic Causal Graphs},
	url = {https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/a492b/},
	shorttitle = {Getting Off the Gold Standard},
	abstract = {While many classify studies as either descriptive or causal, I argue that causality is a continuous construct, and different inference modes--experimental, observational and mechanistic--can at best provide only partial causal information. To discriminate between the relative value of different inference modes, I employ statistical entropy as a possible yardstick for evaluating research designs as different operations on causal graphs. Rather than dichotomize studies as either causal or descriptive, the concept of entropy instead emphasizes the relative causal knowledge gained from a given research finding. I employ this theory to clarify why and when researchers relied on divergent modes of inference to determine the efficacy of vaccines over the course of the {COVID}-19 pandemic.},
	institution = {{SocArXiv}},
	author = {Kubinec, Robert},
	urldate = {2022-06-01},
	date = {2022},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.31235/osf.io/a492b},
	note = {type: article},
	keywords = {Causal Inference, Models and Methods, Philosophy of Social Science, Political Science, Research Methods, Social and Behavioral Sciences},
}

@report{ben_salah_colonial_2022,
	location = {Rochester, {NY}},
	title = {The Colonial Legacy of Education: Evidence from of Tunisia},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=4101795},
	shorttitle = {The Colonial Legacy of Education},
	abstract = {We study the effect of exposure to colonial public primary education on contemporary education outcomes in Tunisia. We assemble a new data set on the location of schools with the number of pupils by origin, along with population data during the French protectorate (1881–1956). We match those with contemporary data on education at both district and individual level. We find that the exposure of local population to colonial public primary education has a long-lasting effect on educational outcomes, even when controlling for colonial investments in education. A one per cent increase in Tunisian enrolment rate in 1931 is associated with a 1.69 percentage points increase in literacy rate in 2014. Our results are driven by older generations, namely individuals who attended primary schools before the 1989/91 education reform. We suggest that the efforts undertaken by the Tunisian government after independence to promote schooling finally paid off after 40 years andoverturned the effects of history.},
	number = {4101795},
	institution = {Social Science Research Network},
	type = {{SSRN} Scholarly Paper},
	author = {Ben Salah, Mhamed and Chambru, Cédric and Fourati, Maleke},
	urldate = {2022-06-01},
	date = {2022-05-01},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.2139/ssrn.4101795},
	keywords = {Colonial investment, Tunisia, primary education},
}

@software{hausser_entropy_2021,
	title = {entropy: Estimation of Entropy, Mutual Information and Related Quantities},
	rights = {{GPL} (≥ 3)},
	url = {https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=entropy},
	shorttitle = {entropy},
	abstract = {Implements various estimators of entropy for discrete random variables, including the shrinkage estimator by Hausser and Strimmer (2009), the maximum likelihood and the Millow-Madow estimator, various Bayesian estimators, and the Chao-Shen estimator. It also offers an R interface to the {NSB} estimator. Furthermore, the package provides functions for estimating the Kullback-Leibler divergence, the chi-squared divergence, mutual information, and the chi-squared divergence of independence. It also computes the G statistic and the chi-squared statistic and corresponding p-values. Furthermore, there are functions for discretizing continuous random variables.},
	version = {1.3.1},
	author = {Hausser, Jean and Strimmer, Korbinian},
	urldate = {2022-06-01},
	date = {2021-10-02},
}

@article{vanderweele_mediation_2016,
	title = {Mediation Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide},
	volume = {37},
	issn = {1545-2093},
	url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26653405/},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-publhealth-032315-021402},
	shorttitle = {Mediation Analysis},
	abstract = {This article provides an overview of recent developments in mediation analysis, that is, analyses used to assess the relative magnitude of different pathways and mechanisms by which an exposure may affect an outcome. Traditional approaches to mediation in the biomedical and social sciences are descr …},
	journaltitle = {Annual review of public health},
	author = {{VanderWeele}, {TJ}},
	urldate = {2022-06-01},
	date = {2016},
	langid = {english},
	pmid = {26653405},
	note = {Publisher: Annu Rev Public Health},
}

@article{imai_general_2010,
	title = {A general approach to causal mediation analysis},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {1939-1463},
	doi = {10.1037/a0020761},
	abstract = {Traditionally in the social sciences, causal mediation analysis has been formulated, understood, and implemented within the framework of linear structural equation models. We argue and demonstrate that this is problematic for 3 reasons: the lack of a general definition of causal mediation effects independent of a particular statistical model, the inability to specify the key identification assumption, and the difficulty of extending the framework to nonlinear models. In this article, we propose an alternative approach that overcomes these limitations. Our approach is general because it offers the definition, identification, estimation, and sensitivity analysis of causal mediation effects without reference to any specific statistical model. Further, our approach explicitly links these 4 elements closely together within a single framework. As a result, the proposed framework can accommodate linear and nonlinear relationships, parametric and nonparametric models, continuous and discrete mediators, and various types of outcome variables. The general definition and identification result also allow us to develop sensitivity analysis in the context of commonly used models, which enables applied researchers to formally assess the robustness of their empirical conclusions to violations of the key assumption. We illustrate our approach by applying it to the Job Search Intervention Study. We also offer easy-to-use software that implements all our proposed methods.},
	pages = {309--334},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Psychological Methods},
	shortjournal = {Psychol Methods},
	author = {Imai, Kosuke and Keele, Luke and Tingley, Dustin},
	date = {2010-12},
	pmid = {20954780},
	keywords = {Algorithms, Causality, Data Interpretation, Statistical, Linear Models, Models, Statistical, Sensitivity and Specificity, Social Sciences},
}

@article{kullback_information_1951,
	title = {On Information and Sufficiency},
	volume = {22},
	issn = {0003-4851, 2168-8990},
	url = {https://projecteuclid.org/journals/annals-of-mathematical-statistics/volume-22/issue-1/On-Information-and-Sufficiency/10.1214/aoms/1177729694.full},
	doi = {10.1214/aoms/1177729694},
	abstract = {The Annals of Mathematical Statistics},
	pages = {79--86},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Annals of Mathematical Statistics},
	author = {Kullback, S. and Leibler, R. A.},
	urldate = {2022-06-01},
	date = {1951-03},
	note = {Publisher: Institute of Mathematical Statistics},
}

@article{hoffmann_omicron_2022,
	title = {The Omicron variant is highly resistant against antibody-mediated neutralization: Implications for control of the {COVID}-19 pandemic},
	volume = {185},
	issn = {0092-8674},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867421014951},
	doi = {10.1016/j.cell.2021.12.032},
	shorttitle = {The Omicron variant is highly resistant against antibody-mediated neutralization},
	abstract = {The rapid spread of the {SARS}-{CoV}-2 Omicron variant suggests that the virus might become globally dominant. Further, the high number of mutations in the viral spike protein raised concerns that the virus might evade antibodies induced by infection or vaccination. Here, we report that the Omicron spike was resistant against most therapeutic antibodies but remained susceptible to inhibition by sotrovimab. Similarly, the Omicron spike evaded neutralization by antibodies from convalescent patients or individuals vaccinated with the {BioNTech}-Pfizer vaccine ({BNT}162b2) with 12- to 44-fold higher efficiency than the spike of the Delta variant. Neutralization of the Omicron spike by antibodies induced upon heterologous {ChAdOx}1 (Astra Zeneca-Oxford)/{BNT}162b2 vaccination or vaccination with three doses of {BNT}162b2 was more efficient, but the Omicron spike still evaded neutralization more efficiently than the Delta spike. These findings indicate that most therapeutic antibodies will be ineffective against the Omicron variant and that double immunization with {BNT}162b2 might not adequately protect against severe disease induced by this variant.},
	pages = {447--456.e11},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Cell},
	shortjournal = {Cell},
	author = {Hoffmann, Markus and Krüger, Nadine and Schulz, Sebastian and Cossmann, Anne and Rocha, Cheila and Kempf, Amy and Nehlmeier, Inga and Graichen, Luise and Moldenhauer, Anna-Sophie and Winkler, Martin S. and Lier, Martin and Dopfer-Jablonka, Alexandra and Jäck, Hans-Martin and Behrens, Georg M. N. and Pöhlmann, Stefan},
	urldate = {2022-05-31},
	date = {2022-02-03},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Omicron, {SARS}-{CoV}-2, antibody, immune evasion, neutralization, spike, vaccine},
}

@report{yadav_comparable_2021,
	title = {Comparable neutralization of {SARS}-{CoV}-2 Delta {AY}.1 and Delta in individuals sera vaccinated with {BBV}152},
	rights = {© 2021, Posted by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory. This pre-print is available under a Creative Commons License (Attribution-{NonCommercial}-{NoDerivs} 4.0 International), {CC} {BY}-{NC}-{ND} 4.0, as described at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/},
	url = {https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.30.454511v1},
	abstract = {The recent emergence of the {SARS}-{CoV}-2 Variant of Concern, B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant and its high transmissibility has led to the second wave in India. {BBV}152, a whole-virion inactivated {SARS}-{CoV}-2 vaccine used for mass immunization in India, showed a 65.2\% protection against the Delta variant in a double-blind, randomized, multicentre, phase 3 clinical trial. Subsequently, Delta has been further mutated to Delta {AY}.1, {AY}.2, and {AY}.3. Of these, {AY}.1 variant was first detected in India in April 2021 and subsequently from twenty other countries as well. Here, we have evaluated the {IgG} antibody titer and neutralizing potential of sera of {COVID}-19 naive individual’s full doses of {BBV}152 vaccine, {COVID}-19 recovered cases with full dose vaccines and breakthrough cases post-immunization {BBV}152 vaccines against Delta, Delta {AY}.1 and B.1.617.3. A reduction in neutralizing activity was observed with the {COVID}-19 naive individuals full vaccinated (1.3, 1.5, 1.9-fold), {COVID}-19 recovered cases with full {BBV}152 immunization (2.5, 3.5, 3.8-fold) and breakthrough cases post-immunization (1.9, 2.8, 3.5-fold) against Delta, Delta {AY}.1 and B.1.617.3 respectively compared to B.1 variant. A minor reduction was observed in the neutralizing antibody titer in {COVID}-19 recovered cases full {BBV}152 vaccinated and post immunized infected cases compared to {COVID}-19 naive vaccinated individuals. However, with the observed high titers, the sera of individuals belonging to all the aforementioned groups they would still neutralize the Delta, Delta {AY}.1 and B.1.617.3 variants effectively.},
	pages = {2021.07.30.454511},
	institution = {{bioRxiv}},
	author = {Yadav, Pragya D. and Sahay, Rima R. and Sapkal, Gajanan and Nyayanit, Dimpal and Shete, Anita M. and Deshpande, Gururaj and Patil, Deepak Y. and Gupta, Nivedita and Kumar, Sanjay and Abraham, Priya and Panda, Samiran and Bhargava, Balram},
	urldate = {2022-05-31},
	date = {2021-08-01},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.1101/2021.07.30.454511},
	note = {Section: New Results
Type: article},
}

@article{munger_limited_2019,
	title = {The Limited Value of Non-Replicable Field Experiments in Contexts With Low Temporal Validity},
	volume = {5},
	issn = {2056-3051},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/2056305119859294},
	doi = {10.1177/2056305119859294},
	abstract = {My first publication as a grad student was a field experiment using Twitter “bots” to socially sanction users engaged in racist harassment. The ascendant paradigm in quantitative social science emphasizes the need for research to be “internally valid,” with a preference for randomized control trials like the one I conducted. That research project was well received, both by the political science discipline and the public, but I no longer believe that one-off field experiments are as valuable a tool for studying online behavior as I once did. The problem is that the knowledge they generate decays too rapidly (alternatively, that the realms in which it can be applied are too few) because the object of study changes too rapidly. I have been developing the concept of “temporal validity” as form of “external validity” that is particularly relevant to the study of social media. I suggest two avenues for producing more temporally valid research: (1) faster, more transparent publication (adapting the {CS} model of conference proceedings); (2) a “hollowing out” of empirical research, replacing medium-scale experimentation like my own work with either purely descriptive work (ethnographic or large-scale) or with massive, collaborative, replicable experimentation.},
	pages = {2056305119859294},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Social Media + Society},
	shortjournal = {Social Media + Society},
	author = {Munger, Kevin},
	urldate = {2022-05-31},
	date = {2019-04-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Ltd},
	keywords = {Temporal validity, online social science},
}

@article{chodick_assessment_2021,
	title = {Assessment of Effectiveness of 1 Dose of {BNT}162b2 Vaccine for {SARS}-{CoV}-2 Infection 13 to 24 Days After Immunization},
	volume = {4},
	issn = {2574-3805},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.15985},
	doi = {10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2021.15985},
	abstract = {The {BNT}162b2 vaccine showed high efficacy against {COVID}-19 in a phase {III} randomized clinical trial. A vaccine effectiveness evaluation in a real-world setting is needed.To assess the short-term effectiveness of the first dose of the {BNT}162b2-vaccine against {SARS}-{CoV}-2 infection 13 to 24 days after immunization in a real-world setting.This comparative effectiveness study used data from a 2.6 million-member state-mandated health care system in Israel. Participants included all individuals aged 16 years and older who received 1 dose of the {BNT}162b2 vaccine between December 19, 2020, and January 15, 2021. Data were analyzed in March 2021.Receipt of 1 dose of the {BNT}162b2 vaccine.Information was collected regarding medical history and positive {SARS}-{CoV}-2 polymerase chain reaction test and {COVID}-19 symptoms from 1 day after first vaccine to January 17, 2021. Daily and cumulative infection rates in days 13 to 24 were compared with days 1 to 12 after the first dose using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and generalized linear models.Data for 503 875 individuals (mean [{SD}] age, 59.7 [14.7] years; 263 228 [52.4\%] women) were analyzed, of whom 351 897 had follow-up data for days 13 to 24. The cumulative incidence of {SARS}-{CoV}-2 infection was 2484 individuals (0.57\%) during days 1 through 12 and 614 individuals (0.27\%) in days 13 through 24. The weighted mean ({SE}) daily incidence of {SARS}-{CoV}-2 infection in days 1 through 12 was 43.41 (12.07) infections per 100 000 population and 21.08 (6.16) infections per 100 000 population in days 13 through 24, a relative risk reduction ({RRR}) of 51.4\% (95\% {CI}, 16.3\%-71.8\%). The decrease in incidence was evident from day 18 after the first dose. Similar {RRRs} were calculated in individuals aged 60 years or older (44.5\%; 95\% {CI}, 4.1\%-67.9\%), those younger than 60 years (50.2\%; 95\% {CI}, 14.1\%-71.2\%), women (50.0\%; 95\% {CI}, 13.5\%-71.0\%), and men (52.1\%; 95\% {CI}, 17.3\%-72.2\%). Findings were similar in subpopulations (eg, ultraorthodox Jewish: {RRR}, 53.5\% [95\% {CI}, 19.2\%-73.2\%]) and patients with various comorbidities (eg, cardiovascular diseases: {RRR}, 47.2\% [95\% {CI}, 7.8\%-69.8\%]). Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic {COVID}-19 was 54.4\% (95\% {CI}, 21.4\%-73.6\%).In this comparative effectiveness study of a single dose of the {BNT}162b2 vaccine, results were comparable to that of the phase {III} randomized clinical trial.},
	pages = {e2115985},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {{JAMA} Network Open},
	shortjournal = {{JAMA} Network Open},
	author = {Chodick, Gabriel and Tene, Lilac and Patalon, Tal and Gazit, Sivan and Ben Tov, Amir and Cohen, Dani and Muhsen, Khitam},
	urldate = {2022-05-31},
	date = {2021-06-07},
}

@article{andrews_covid-19_2022,
	title = {Covid-19 Vaccine Effectiveness against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) Variant},
	volume = {386},
	issn = {0028-4793},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2119451},
	doi = {10.1056/NEJMoa2119451},
	pages = {1532--1546},
	number = {16},
	journaltitle = {New England Journal of Medicine},
	author = {Andrews, Nick and Stowe, Julia and Kirsebom, Freja and Toffa, Samuel and Rickeard, Tim and Gallagher, Eileen and Gower, Charlotte and Kall, Meaghan and Groves, Natalie and O’Connell, Anne-Marie and Simons, David and Blomquist, Paula B. and Zaidi, Asad and Nash, Sophie and Iwani Binti Abdul Aziz, Nurin and Thelwall, Simon and Dabrera, Gavin and Myers, Richard and Amirthalingam, Gayatri and Gharbia, Saheer and Barrett, Jeffrey C. and Elson, Richard and Ladhani, Shamez N. and Ferguson, Neil and Zambon, Maria and Campbell, Colin N.J. and Brown, Kevin and Hopkins, Susan and Chand, Meera and Ramsay, Mary and Lopez Bernal, Jamie},
	urldate = {2022-05-31},
	date = {2022-04-21},
	note = {Publisher: Massachusetts Medical Society
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1056/{NEJMoa}2119451},
}

@article{tregoning_progress_2021,
	title = {Progress of the {COVID}-19 vaccine effort: viruses, vaccines and variants versus efficacy, effectiveness and escape},
	volume = {21},
	rights = {2021 Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {1474-1741},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-021-00592-1},
	doi = {10.1038/s41577-021-00592-1},
	shorttitle = {Progress of the {COVID}-19 vaccine effort},
	abstract = {Where 2020 saw the development and testing of vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ({SARS}-{CoV}-2) at an unprecedented pace, the first half of 2021 has seen vaccine rollout in many countries. In this Progress article, we provide a snapshot of ongoing vaccine efficacy studies, as well as real-world data on vaccine effectiveness and the impact of virus variants of concern. Where they have been deployed in a high proportion of the adult population, the currently approved vaccines have been extremely effective in preventing {COVID}-19, particularly severe disease. Nonetheless, there are still significant challenges in ensuring equitable vaccine access around the globe and lessons that can be learned for controlling this pandemic and for the next pandemic.},
	pages = {626--636},
	number = {10},
	journaltitle = {Nature Reviews Immunology},
	shortjournal = {Nat Rev Immunol},
	author = {Tregoning, John S. and Flight, Katie E. and Higham, Sophie L. and Wang, Ziyin and Pierce, Benjamin F.},
	urldate = {2022-05-31},
	date = {2021-10},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Number: 10
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {{SARS}-{CoV}-2, Vaccines},
}

@article{hungerford_real_2021,
	title = {Real world effectiveness of covid-19 vaccines},
	volume = {374},
	rights = {Published by the {BMJ} Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions},
	issn = {1756-1833},
	url = {https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2034},
	doi = {10.1136/bmj.n2034},
	abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}Rigorous studies of these vaccines in action are an urgent priority globally{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	pages = {n2034},
	journaltitle = {{BMJ}},
	shortjournal = {{BMJ}},
	author = {Hungerford, Daniel and Cunliffe, Nigel A.},
	urldate = {2022-05-31},
	date = {2021-08-20},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: British Medical Journal Publishing Group
Section: Editorial},
}

@article{bell_old_2022,
	title = {An old problem with new solutions: Strategies to improve vaccine efficacy in the elderly},
	volume = {183},
	issn = {0169-409X},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169409X22000655},
	doi = {10.1016/j.addr.2022.114175},
	shorttitle = {An old problem with new solutions},
	abstract = {Vaccination is the most effective measure to protect against infections. However, with increasing age, there is a progressive decline in the ability of the immune system to both protect against infection and develop protective immunity from vaccination. This age-related decline of the immune system is due to age-related changes in both the innate and adaptive immune systems. With an aging world population and increased risk of pandemics, there is a need to continue to develop strategies to increase vaccine responses in the elderly. Here, the major age-related changes that occur in both the innate and adaptive immune responses that impair the response to vaccination in the elderly will be highlighted. Existing and future strategies to improve vaccine efficacy in the elderly will then be discussed, including adjuvants, delivery methods, and formulation. These strategies provide mechanisms to improve the efficacy of existing vaccines and develop novel vaccines for the elderly.},
	pages = {114175},
	journaltitle = {Advanced Drug Delivery Reviews},
	shortjournal = {Advanced Drug Delivery Reviews},
	author = {Bell, Matthew R. and Kutzler, Michele A.},
	urldate = {2022-05-31},
	date = {2022-04-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Adaptive immunity, Adjuvant, Age, Elderly, Inflammaging, Influenza, Innate immunity, {SARS}-{CoV}-2, Vaccination, Varicella Zoster, {mRNA} vaccine},
}

@article{pawelec_unanticipated_2021,
	title = {Unanticipated efficacy of {SARS}-{CoV}-2 vaccination in older adults},
	volume = {18},
	issn = {1742-4933},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12979-021-00219-y},
	doi = {10.1186/s12979-021-00219-y},
	abstract = {The rapidity with which vaccines against {COVID}-19 have been developed and tested is unprecedented. As classically the case with randomized clinical trials, many studies excluded older adults. However, given the early realisation that senior citizens were most highly susceptible to {COVID}, older individuals have been included in licensing trials under these unusual conditions. The recently published results from the Comirnaty Vaccine ({BNT}162b) trial unexpectedly documented that vaccine efficacy was equally exceptionally high in older and younger adults. These extremely encouraging trial results with a neoantigen vaccine may suggest the beginning of a paradigm shift in our view of the impact of immunosenescence on vaccination against novel infectious diseases.},
	pages = {7},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Immunity \& Ageing},
	shortjournal = {Immunity \& Ageing},
	author = {Pawelec, Graham and {McElhaney}, Janet},
	urldate = {2022-05-31},
	date = {2021-02-17},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, Immunosenescence, Paradigm shift, {SARS}-{CoV}-2, Vaccination},
}

@article{baack_covid-19_2021,
	title = {{COVID}-19 Vaccination Coverage and Intent Among Adults Aged 18–39 Years — United States, March–May 2021},
	volume = {70},
	issn = {0149-2195},
	url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8224866/},
	doi = {10.15585/mmwr.mm7025e2},
	pages = {928--933},
	number = {25},
	journaltitle = {Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report},
	shortjournal = {{MMWR} Morb Mortal Wkly Rep},
	author = {Baack, Brittney N. and Abad, Neetu and Yankey, David and Kahn, Katherine E. and Razzaghi, Hilda and Brookmeyer, Kathryn and Kolis, Jessica and Wilhelm, Elisabeth and Nguyen, Kimberly H. and Singleton, James A.},
	urldate = {2022-05-31},
	date = {2021-06-25},
	pmid = {34166337},
	pmcid = {PMC8224866},
}

@article{hodgson_what_2021,
	title = {What defines an efficacious {COVID}-19 vaccine? A review of the challenges assessing the clinical efficacy of vaccines against {SARS}-{CoV}-2},
	volume = {21},
	issn = {1473-3099},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1473309920307738},
	doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30773-8},
	shorttitle = {What defines an efficacious {COVID}-19 vaccine?},
	abstract = {The novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ({SARS}-{CoV}-2), has caused more than 1 million deaths in the first 6 months of the pandemic and huge economic and social upheaval internationally. An efficacious vaccine is essential to prevent further morbidity and mortality. Although some countries might deploy {COVID}-19 vaccines on the strength of safety and immunogenicity data alone, the goal of vaccine development is to gain direct evidence of vaccine efficacy in protecting humans against {SARS}-{CoV}-2 infection and {COVID}-19 so that manufacture of efficacious vaccines can be selectively upscaled. A candidate vaccine against {SARS}-{CoV}-2 might act against infection, disease, or transmission, and a vaccine capable of reducing any of these elements could contribute to disease control. However, the most important efficacy endpoint, protection against severe disease and death, is difficult to assess in phase 3 clinical trials. In this Review, we explore the challenges in assessing the efficacy of candidate {SARS}-{CoV}-2 vaccines, discuss the caveats needed to interpret reported efficacy endpoints, and provide insight into answering the seemingly simple question, “Does this {COVID}-19 vaccine work?”},
	pages = {e26--e35},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The Lancet Infectious Diseases},
	shortjournal = {The Lancet Infectious Diseases},
	author = {Hodgson, Susanne H and Mansatta, Kushal and Mallett, Garry and Harris, Victoria and Emary, Katherine R W and Pollard, Andrew J},
	urldate = {2022-05-31},
	date = {2021-02-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{soiza_efficacy_2021,
	title = {Efficacy and safety of {COVID}-19 vaccines in older people},
	volume = {50},
	issn = {0002-0729},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afaa274},
	doi = {10.1093/ageing/afaa274},
	abstract = {Several vaccines against coronavirus disease 2019 ({COVID}-19) are on the cusp of regulatory approval. Their safety and efficacy in older people is critical to their success. Even though care home residents and older people are likely to be amongst the first to be vaccinated, these patient groups are usually excluded from clinical trials. Data from several Phase {II} trials have given cause for optimism, with strong antibody responses and reassuring safety profiles but, with the exception of {AstraZeneca}’s vaccine, recruited few older people. Overall, the sparse data from Phase {II} trials suggest a reduction in both antibody responses and mild to moderate adverse events in well older people compared to younger participants. Many of the Phase {III} trials have made a conscious effort to recruit older people, and interim analyses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine have led to press releases announcing high degrees of efficacy. However, older people with co-morbidities and frailty have once again been largely excluded and there are no published data on safety and efficacy in this group. Although the speed and impact of the pandemic on older people with frailty justify an approach where they are offered vaccination first, patients and their carers and supervising health care professionals alike will need to make a decision on accepting vaccination based on limited evidence. Here we review the main candidate vaccines that may become available, with a focus on the evidence of safety and efficacy in older people.},
	pages = {279--283},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Age and Ageing},
	shortjournal = {Age and Ageing},
	author = {Soiza, Roy L and Scicluna, Chiara and Thomson, Emma C},
	urldate = {2022-05-31},
	date = {2021-03-01},
}

@article{bauer_relaxing_2021,
	title = {Relaxing restrictions at the pace of vaccination increases freedom and guards against further {COVID}-19 waves},
	volume = {17},
	issn = {1553-7358},
	url = {https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009288},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009288},
	abstract = {Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the {COVID}-19 pandemic. However, as vaccination progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of the population remaining susceptible. Using our age-stratified {SEIRD}-{ICU} compartmental model and curated epidemiological and vaccination data, we quantified the rate (relative to vaccination progress) at which countries can lift non-pharmaceutical interventions without overwhelming their healthcare systems. We analyzed scenarios ranging from immediately lifting restrictions (accepting high mortality and morbidity) to reducing case numbers to a level where test-trace-and-isolate ({TTI}) programs efficiently compensate for local spreading events. In general, the age-dependent vaccination roll-out implies a transient decrease of more than ten years in the average age of {ICU} patients and deceased. The pace of vaccination determines the speed of lifting restrictions; Taking the European Union ({EU}) as an example case, all considered scenarios allow for steadily increasing contacts starting in May 2021 and relaxing most restrictions by autumn 2021. Throughout summer 2021, only mild contact restrictions will remain necessary. However, only high vaccine uptake can prevent further severe waves. Across {EU} countries, seroprevalence impacts the long-term success of vaccination campaigns more strongly than age demographics. In addition, we highlight the need for preventive measures to reduce contagion in school settings throughout the year 2021, where children might be drivers of contagion because of them remaining susceptible. Strategies that maintain low case numbers, instead of high ones, reduce infections and deaths by factors of eleven and five, respectively. In general, policies with low case numbers significantly benefit from vaccination, as the overall reduction in susceptibility will further diminish viral spread. Keeping case numbers low is the safest long-term strategy because it considerably reduces mortality and morbidity and offers better preparedness against emerging escape or more contagious virus variants while still allowing for higher contact numbers (freedom) with progressing vaccinations.},
	pages = {e1009288},
	number = {9},
	journaltitle = {{PLOS} Computational Biology},
	shortjournal = {{PLOS} Computational Biology},
	author = {Bauer, Simon and Contreras, Sebastian and Dehning, Jonas and Linden, Matthias and Iftekhar, Emil and Mohr, Sebastian B. and Olivera-Nappa, Alvaro and Priesemann, Viola},
	urldate = {2022-05-31},
	date = {2021-09-02},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Public Library of Science},
	keywords = {Age groups, {COVID} 19, Germany, Immunity, Intensive care units, Vaccination and immunization, Vaccines, Viral vaccines},
}

@article{baden_efficacy_2021,
	title = {Efficacy and Safety of the {mRNA}-1273 {SARS}-{CoV}-2 Vaccine},
	volume = {384},
	issn = {0028-4793},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389},
	doi = {10.1056/NEJMoa2035389},
	pages = {403--416},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {New England Journal of Medicine},
	author = {Baden, Lindsey R. and El Sahly, Hana M. and Essink, Brandon and Kotloff, Karen and Frey, Sharon and Novak, Rick and Diemert, David and Spector, Stephen A. and Rouphael, Nadine and Creech, C. Buddy and {McGettigan}, John and Khetan, Shishir and Segall, Nathan and Solis, Joel and Brosz, Adam and Fierro, Carlos and Schwartz, Howard and Neuzil, Kathleen and Corey, Lawrence and Gilbert, Peter and Janes, Holly and Follmann, Dean and Marovich, Mary and Mascola, John and Polakowski, Laura and Ledgerwood, Julie and Graham, Barney S. and Bennett, Hamilton and Pajon, Rolando and Knightly, Conor and Leav, Brett and Deng, Weiping and Zhou, Honghong and Han, Shu and Ivarsson, Melanie and Miller, Jacqueline and Zaks, Tal},
	urldate = {2022-05-31},
	date = {2021-02-04},
	pmid = {33378609},
	note = {Publisher: Massachusetts Medical Society
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1056/{NEJMoa}2035389},
}

@article{polack_safety_2020,
	title = {Safety and Efficacy of the {BNT}162b2 {mRNA} Covid-19 Vaccine},
	volume = {383},
	issn = {0028-4793},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577},
	doi = {10.1056/NEJMoa2034577},
	pages = {2603--2615},
	number = {27},
	journaltitle = {New England Journal of Medicine},
	author = {Polack, Fernando P. and Thomas, Stephen J. and Kitchin, Nicholas and Absalon, Judith and Gurtman, Alejandra and Lockhart, Stephen and Perez, John L. and Pérez Marc, Gonzalo and Moreira, Edson D. and Zerbini, Cristiano and Bailey, Ruth and Swanson, Kena A. and Roychoudhury, Satrajit and Koury, Kenneth and Li, Ping and Kalina, Warren V. and Cooper, David and Frenck, Robert W. and Hammitt, Laura L. and Türeci, Özlem and Nell, Haylene and Schaefer, Axel and Ünal, Serhat and Tresnan, Dina B. and Mather, Susan and Dormitzer, Philip R. and Şahin, Uğur and Jansen, Kathrin U. and Gruber, William C.},
	urldate = {2022-05-31},
	date = {2020-12-31},
	pmid = {33301246},
	note = {Publisher: Massachusetts Medical Society
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1056/{NEJMoa}2034577},
}

@article{altman_association_2015,
	title = {Association, correlation and causation},
	volume = {12},
	rights = {2015 Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.},
	issn = {1548-7105},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nmeth.3587},
	doi = {10.1038/nmeth.3587},
	abstract = {Correlation implies association, but not causation. Conversely, causation implies association, but not correlation.},
	pages = {899--900},
	number = {10},
	journaltitle = {Nature Methods},
	author = {Altman, Naomi and Krzywinski, Martin},
	urldate = {2022-05-31},
	date = {2015-10-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Number: 10
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Publishing, Research data, Statistical methods},
}

@article{spirling_what_2022,
	title = {What Good is a Regression? Inference to the Best Explanation and the Practice of Political Science Research},
	url = {https://github.com/ArthurSpirling/InferenceToTheBestExplanation/blob/main/paper/Spirling_Stewart_WhatGoodIsARegression.pdf},
	journaltitle = {Working Paper},
	author = {Spirling, Arthur and Stewart, Brandon M.},
	date = {2022},
}

@book{mahdavi_power_2022,
	title = {Power Grab: Political Survival through Extractive Resource Nationalization},
	isbn = {978-1-108-74868-1},
	shorttitle = {Power Grab},
	abstract = {For rulers whose territories are blessed with extractive resources - such as petroleum, metals, and minerals that will power the clean energy transition - converting natural wealth into fiscal wealth is key. Squandering the opportunity to secure these revenues will guarantee short tenures, while capitalizing on windfalls and managing the resulting wealth will fortify the foundations of enduring rule. This book argues that leaders nationalize extractive resources to extend the duration of their power. By taking control of the means of production and establishing state-owned enterprises, leaders capture revenues that might otherwise flow to private firms, and use this increased capital to secure political support. Using a combination of case studies and cross-national statistical analysis with novel techniques, Mahdavi sketches the contours of a crucial political gamble: nationalize and reap immediate gains while risking future prosperity, or maintain private operations, thereby passing on revenue windfalls but securing long-term fiscal streams.},
	pagetotal = {276},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Mahdavi, Paasha},
	date = {2022-03-24},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Google-Books-{ID}: Rhs5zQEACAAJ},
	keywords = {Business \& Economics / Environmental Economics, Political Science / General, Political Science / Political Economy, Political Science / Public Policy / Economic Policy},
}

@misc{kubinec_replication_2022,
	title = {Replication Data for Ordered Beta Regression: A Parsimonious, Well-Fitting Model for Continuous Data with Lower and Upper Bounds},
	url = {https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.7910/DVN/5XYO7O},
	doi = {10.7910/DVN/5XYO7O},
	shorttitle = {Replication Data for Ordered Beta Regression},
	abstract = {I propose a new model, ordered Beta regression, for continuous distributions with both lower and upper bounds, such as data arising from survey sli...},
	version = {V1},
	publisher = {Harvard Dataverse},
	author = {Kubinec, Robert},
	urldate = {2022-05-27},
	date = {2022-05-05},
	keywords = {Health and Life Sciences, Mathematical Sciences, Medicine, Social Sciences},
}

@online{noauthor_middle_2022,
	title = {Middle East needs European Union-style integration to boost growth, report says},
	url = {https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2022/05/26/middle-east-needs-european-union-style-integration-to-boost-growth-report-says/},
	abstract = {Majid Al Futtaim and {McKinsey} say region must merge laws, allow freer trade and tackle student brain drain},
	titleaddon = {The National},
	urldate = {2022-05-27},
	date = {2022-05-26},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Section: {MENA}},
}

@inproceedings{yu_measuring_2020,
	location = {Barcelona, Spain (Online)},
	title = {Measuring Correlation-to-Causation Exaggeration in Press Releases},
	url = {https://aclanthology.org/2020.coling-main.427},
	doi = {10.18653/v1/2020.coling-main.427},
	abstract = {Press releases have an increasingly strong influence on media coverage of health research; however, they have been found to contain seriously exaggerated claims that can misinform the public and undermine public trust in science. In this study we propose an {NLP} approach to identify exaggerated causal claims made in health press releases that report on observational studies, which are designed to establish correlational findings, but are often exaggerated as causal. We developed a new corpus and trained models that can identify causal claims in the main statements in a press release. By comparing the claims made in a press release with the corresponding claims in the original research paper, we found that 22\% of press releases made exaggerated causal claims from correlational findings in observational studies. Furthermore, universities exaggerated more often than journal publishers by a ratio of 1.5 to 1. Encouragingly, the exaggeration rate has slightly decreased over the past 10 years, despite the increase of the total number of press releases. More research is needed to understand the cause of the decreasing pattern.},
	eventtitle = {{COLING} 2020},
	pages = {4860--4872},
	booktitle = {Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Computational Linguistics},
	publisher = {International Committee on Computational Linguistics},
	author = {Yu, Bei and Wang, Jun and Guo, Lu and Li, Yingya},
	urldate = {2022-05-24},
	date = {2020-12},
}

@article{cofield_use_2010,
	title = {Use of Causal Language in Observational Studies of Obesity and Nutrition},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {1662-4025, 1662-4033},
	url = {https://www.karger.com/Article/FullText/322940},
	doi = {10.1159/000322940},
	abstract = {\textit{Objective:} To assesss the inappropriate use of causal language in studies on obesity and nutrition. \textit{Methods:} Titles and abstracts of 525 peer-reviewed papers in the 4 leading journals in the fields of obesity and nutrition were scrutinized for language implying causality in observational studies published in 2006. \textit{Results:} Such misleading language appeared in 161 papers (31\%) independent of funding source. Remarkably 49\% of studies lacking statistically significant primary outcomes used misleading language compared to 29\% of those with p values \&\#8804;0.05 (chi square p \&\#60; 0.001). Exculpatory language was present in the body of the text in 19\%; of the 161 studies. \textit{Conclusion:} We suggest that editors and reviewers evaluate submissions for misleading reporting.},
	pages = {353--356},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {Obesity Facts},
	shortjournal = {{OFA}},
	author = {Cofield, Stacey S. and Corona, Rachel V. and Allison, David B.},
	urldate = {2022-05-24},
	date = {2010},
	pmid = {21196788},
	note = {Publisher: Karger Publishers},
}

@article{thapa_being_2020,
	title = {Being honest with causal language in writing for publication},
	url = {https://acquire.cqu.edu.au/articles/journal_contribution/Being_honest_with_causal_language_in_writing_for_publication/16572431/1},
	abstract = {The misleading use of causal language in publication is problematic for authors, reviewers and consumers of the information. Published research in quality journals has important knowledge implications and it is, therefore, contingent on authors to use language that is accurate and appropriate to their work. Language implying unsupported causal relationships may overstate the evidence-base, especially if accepted by uncritical readers or unwitting members of the general public who may not understand how to interpret inferential statistics.},
	author = {Thapa, Deependra K. and Visentin, Denis C. and Hunt, Glenn E. and Watson, Roger and Cleary, Michelle L.},
	urldate = {2022-05-24},
	date = {2020-06-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {CQUniversity}},
}

@inproceedings{yu_detecting_2019,
	location = {Hong Kong, China},
	title = {Detecting Causal Language Use in Science Findings},
	url = {https://aclanthology.org/D19-1473},
	doi = {10.18653/v1/D19-1473},
	abstract = {Causal interpretation of correlational findings from observational studies has been a major type of misinformation in science communication. Prior studies on identifying inappropriate use of causal language relied on manual content analysis, which is not scalable for examining a large volume of science publications. In this study, we first annotated a corpus of over 3,000 {PubMed} research conclusion sentences, then developed a {BERT}-based prediction model that classifies conclusion sentences into “no relationship”, “correlational”, “conditional causal”, and “direct causal” categories, achieving an accuracy of 0.90 and a macro-F1 of 0.88. We then applied the prediction model to measure the causal language use in the research conclusions of about 38,000 observational studies in {PubMed}. The prediction result shows that 21.7\% studies used direct causal language exclusively in their conclusions, and 32.4\% used some direct causal language. We also found that the ratio of causal language use differs among authors from different countries, challenging the notion of a shared consensus on causal language use in the global science community. Our prediction model could also be used to help identify the inappropriate use of causal language in science publications.},
	eventtitle = {{EMNLP}-{IJCNLP} 2019},
	pages = {4664--4674},
	booktitle = {Proceedings of the 2019 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing and the 9th International Joint Conference on Natural Language Processing ({EMNLP}-{IJCNLP})},
	publisher = {Association for Computational Linguistics},
	author = {Yu, Bei and Li, Yingya and Wang, Jun},
	urldate = {2022-05-24},
	date = {2019-11},
}

@article{vanderweele_can_2021,
	title = {Can Sophisticated Study Designs With Regression Analyses of Observational Data Provide Causal Inferences?},
	volume = {78},
	issn = {2168-622X},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2020.2588},
	doi = {10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2020.2588},
	abstract = {This Viewpoint presents considerations for assessing evidence for causal inference when using sophisticated study designs with regression analyses of longitudinal observational data. A view is sometimes expressed that regressions with observational data can never give causal conclusions. I argue this position is too extreme. While observational data rarely conclusively demonstrate causality, some study designs may provide evidence, and sometimes that evidence can be strong. However, the extent of evidence depends on a number of considerations. These considerations are narrower than those discussed decades ago by Hill, which covered evidence from numerous sources, not just that from observational studies. I will begin with considerations concerning regression analysis using a single observational study and then return to broader considerations on the synthesis of evidence across studies.},
	pages = {244--246},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {{JAMA} Psychiatry},
	shortjournal = {{JAMA} Psychiatry},
	author = {{VanderWeele}, Tyler J.},
	urldate = {2022-05-24},
	date = {2021-03-01},
}

@article{grosz_taboo_2020,
	title = {The Taboo Against Explicit Causal Inference in Nonexperimental Psychology},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {1745-6916},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691620921521},
	doi = {10.1177/1745691620921521},
	abstract = {Causal inference is a central goal of research. However, most psychologists refrain from explicitly addressing causal research questions and avoid drawing causal inference on the basis of nonexperimental evidence. We argue that this taboo against causal inference in nonexperimental psychology impairs study design and data analysis, holds back cumulative research, leads to a disconnect between original findings and how they are interpreted in subsequent work, and limits the relevance of nonexperimental psychology for policymaking. At the same time, the taboo does not prevent researchers from interpreting findings as causal effects—the inference is simply made implicitly, and assumptions remain unarticulated. Thus, we recommend that nonexperimental psychologists begin to talk openly about causal assumptions and causal effects. Only then can researchers take advantage of recent methodological advances in causal reasoning and analysis and develop a solid understanding of the underlying causal mechanisms that can inform future research, theory, and policymakers.},
	pages = {1243--1255},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Psychological Science},
	shortjournal = {Perspect Psychol Sci},
	author = {Grosz, Michael P. and Rohrer, Julia M. and Thoemmes, Felix},
	urldate = {2022-05-24},
	date = {2020-09-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Inc},
	keywords = {causal inference, instrumental-variable estimation, nonexperimental, observational studies},
}

@article{hernan_c-word_2018,
	title = {The C-Word: Scientific Euphemisms Do Not Improve Causal Inference From Observational Data},
	volume = {108},
	issn = {0090-0036},
	url = {https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.2105/AJPH.2018.304337},
	doi = {10.2105/AJPH.2018.304337},
	shorttitle = {The C-Word},
	abstract = {Causal inference is a core task of science. However, authors and editors often refrain from explicitly acknowledging the causal goal of research projects; they refer to causal effect estimates as associational estimates.

This commentary argues that using the term “causal” is necessary to improve the quality of observational research.

Specifically, being explicit about the causal objective of a study reduces ambiguity in the scientific question, errors in the data analysis, and excesses in the interpretation of the results.},
	pages = {616--619},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Public Health},
	shortjournal = {Am J Public Health},
	author = {Hernán, Miguel A.},
	urldate = {2022-05-24},
	date = {2018-05},
	note = {Publisher: American Public Health Association},
}

@article{han_systematic_2020,
	title = {Systematic survey of the causal language use in systematic reviews of observational studies: a study protocol},
	volume = {10},
	issn = {2044-6055},
	url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7389485/},
	doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2020-038571},
	shorttitle = {Systematic survey of the causal language use in systematic reviews of observational studies},
	abstract = {Introduction
Sometimes, observational studies may provide important evidence that allow inferences of causality between exposure and outcome (although on most occasions only low certainty evidence). Authors, frequently and perhaps usually at the behest of the journals to which they are submitting, avoid using causal language when addressing evidence from observational studies. This is true even when the issue of interest is the causal effect of an intervention or exposure. Clarity of thinking and appropriateness of inferences may be enhanced through the use of language that reflects the issue under consideration. The objectives of this study are to systematically evaluate the extent and nature of causal language use in systematic reviews of observational studies and to relate that to the actual intent of the investigation.

Methods and analysis
We will conduct a systematic survey of systematic reviews of observational studies addressing modifiable exposures and their possible impact on patient-important outcomes. We will randomly select 200 reviews published in 2019, stratified in a 1:1 ratio by use and non-use of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation ({GRADE}). Teams of two reviewers will independently assess study eligibility and extract data using a standardised data extraction forms, with resolution of disagreement by discussion and, if necessary, by third party adjudication. Through examining the inferences, they make in their papers’ discussion, we will evaluate whether the authors’ intent was to address causation or association. We will summarise the use of causal language in the study title, abstract, study question and results using descriptive statistics. Finally, we will assess whether the language used is consistent with the intention of the authors. We will determine whether results in reviews that did or did not use {GRADE} differ.

Ethics and dissemination
Ethics approval for this study is not required. We will disseminate the results through publication in a peer-reviewed journals.

Registration
Open Science Framework (osf.io/vh8yx).},
	pages = {e038571},
	number = {7},
	journaltitle = {{BMJ} Open},
	shortjournal = {{BMJ} Open},
	author = {Han, Mi Ah and Guyatt, Gordon},
	urldate = {2022-05-24},
	date = {2020-07-28},
	pmid = {32723747},
	pmcid = {PMC7389485},
}

@article{thapa_being_2020-1,
	title = {Being honest with causal language in writing for publication},
	volume = {76},
	issn = {1365-2648},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jan.14311},
	doi = {10.1111/jan.14311},
	pages = {1285--1288},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Advanced Nursing},
	author = {Thapa, Deependra K. and Visentin, Denis C. and Hunt, Glenn E. and Watson, Roger and Cleary, Michelle},
	urldate = {2022-05-24},
	date = {2020},
	langid = {english},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jan.14311},
}

@article{altman_association_2015-1,
	title = {Association, correlation and causation},
	volume = {12},
	rights = {2015 Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.},
	issn = {1548-7105},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/nmeth.3587},
	doi = {10.1038/nmeth.3587},
	abstract = {Correlation implies association, but not causation. Conversely, causation implies association, but not correlation.},
	pages = {899--900},
	number = {10},
	journaltitle = {Nature Methods},
	author = {Altman, Naomi and Krzywinski, Martin},
	urldate = {2022-05-24},
	date = {2015-10-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Number: 10
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Publishing, Research data, Statistical methods},
}

@book{koslowski_theory_1996,
	location = {Cambridge, {MA}, {USA}},
	title = {Theory and Evidence: The Development of Scientific Reasoning},
	isbn = {978-0-262-11209-3},
	series = {Learning, Development, and Conceptual Change},
	shorttitle = {Theory and Evidence},
	pagetotal = {312},
	publisher = {A Bradford Book},
	author = {Koslowski, Barbara},
	editorb = {Gleitman, Lila and Carey, Susan and Newport, Elissa L. and Spelke, Elizabeth S.},
	editorbtype = {redactor},
	date = {1996-07-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@inproceedings{kocaoglu_applications_2020,
	title = {Applications of Common Entropy for Causal Inference},
	volume = {33},
	url = {https://papers.nips.cc/paper/2020/hash/cae7115f44837c806c9b23ed00a1a28a-Abstract.html},
	abstract = {We study the problem of discovering the simplest latent variable that can make two observed discrete variables conditionally independent. The minimum entropy required for such a latent is known as common entropy in information theory. We extend this notion to Renyi common entropy by minimizing the Renyi entropy of the latent variable. To efficiently compute common entropy, we propose an iterative algorithm that can be used to discover the trade-off between the entropy of the latent variable and the conditional mutual information of the observed variables. We show two applications of common entropy in causal inference: First, under the assumption that there are no low-entropy mediators, it can be used to distinguish direct causation from spurious correlation among almost all joint distributions on simple causal graphs with two observed variables. Second, common entropy can be used to improve constraint-based methods such as {PC} or {FCI} algorithms in the small-sample regime, where these methods are known to struggle. We propose a modification to these constraint-based methods to assess if a separating set found by these algorithms are valid using common entropy. We finally evaluate our algorithms on synthetic and real data to establish their performance.},
	pages = {17514--17525},
	booktitle = {Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems},
	publisher = {Curran Associates, Inc.},
	author = {Kocaoglu, Murat and Shakkottai, Sanjay and Dimakis, Alexandros G and Caramanis, Constantine and Vishwanath, Sriram},
	urldate = {2022-05-24},
	date = {2020},
}

@online{noauthor_pro-government_nodate,
	title = {Pro-government voices call for cancellation of Egyptian megaprojects - Al-Monitor: The Pulse of the Middle East},
	url = {https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/05/pro-government-voices-call-cancellation-egyptian-megaprojects},
	shorttitle = {Pro-government voices call for cancellation of Egyptian megaprojects - Al-Monitor},
	abstract = {The Egyptian government is said to be seeking to halt huge construction works across the nation, citing the economic crisis and the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war.},
	urldate = {2022-05-23},
	langid = {english},
}

@online{noauthor_unskilled_nodate,
	title = {Unskilled and unaware--but why? A reply to Krueger and Mueller (2002) - {PubMed}},
	url = {https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11831409/},
	urldate = {2022-05-23},
}

@article{krueger_unskilled_2002,
	title = {Unskilled, unaware, or both? The better-than-average heuristic and statistical regression predict errors in estimates of own performance},
	volume = {82},
	issn = {1939-1315},
	doi = {10.1037/0022-3514.82.2.180},
	shorttitle = {Unskilled, unaware, or both?},
	abstract = {People who score low on a performance test overestimate their own performance relative to others, whereas high scorers slightly underestimate their own performance. J. Kruger and D. Dunning (1999) attributed these asymmetric errors to differences in metacognitive skill. A replication study showed no evidence for mediation effects for any of several candidate variables. Asymmetric errors were expected because of statistical regression and the general better-than-average ({BTA}) heuristic. Consistent with this parsimonious model, errors were no longer asymmetric when either regression or the {BTA} effect was statistically removed. In fact, high rather than low performers were more error prone in that they were more likely to neglect their own estimates of the performance of others when predicting how they themselves performed relative to the group. ({PsycINFO} Database Record (c) 2016 {APA}, all rights reserved)},
	pages = {180--188},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Personality and Social Psychology},
	author = {Krueger, Joachim and Mueller, Ross A.},
	date = {2002},
	note = {Place: {US}
Publisher: American Psychological Association},
	keywords = {Estimation, Metacognition, Performance, Prediction, Social Comparison, Test Scores},
}

@online{noauthor_rivalry_nodate,
	title = {From rivalry to partnership: Managing climate risks through regional collaboration},
	url = {https://www.mei.edu/publications/rivalry-partnership-managing-climate-risks-through-regional-collaboration},
	shorttitle = {From rivalry to partnership},
	abstract = {Countries across the region face similar climate risks and impacts, but tensions and socio-economic challenges have hampered regional collaboration and collective efforts to tackle climate change. One way to address this problem and to circumvent poor policy coordination is through technical research and knowledge-sharing.},
	titleaddon = {Middle East Institute},
	urldate = {2022-05-20},
	langid = {english},
}

@book{snider_marketing_2022,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {Marketing Democracy: The Political Economy of Democracy Aid in the Middle East},
	isbn = {978-1-108-84426-0},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/marketing-democracy/57C42D378BA2DA1CD287BD5643473289},
	series = {Cambridge Middle East Studies},
	shorttitle = {Marketing Democracy},
	abstract = {For nearly two decades, the United States devoted more than \$2 billion towards democracy promotion in the Middle East with seemingly little impact. To understand the limited impact of this aid and the decision of authoritarian regimes to allow democracy programs whose ultimate aim is to challenge the power of such regimes, Marketing Democracy examines the construction and practice of democracy aid in Washington {DC} and in Egypt and Morocco, two of the highest recipients of {US} democracy aid in the region. Drawing on extensive fieldwork, novel new data on the professional histories of democracy promoters, archival research and recently declassified government documents, Erin A. Snider focuses on the voices and practices of those engaged in democracy work over the last three decades to offer a new framework for understanding the political economy of democracy aid. Her research shows how democracy aid can work to strengthen rather than challenge authoritarian regimes. Marketing Democracy fundamentally challenges scholars to rethink how we study democracy aid and how the ideas of democracy that underlie democracy programs come to reflect the views of donors and recipient regimes rather than indigenous demand.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Snider, Erin A.},
	urldate = {2022-05-19},
	date = {2022},
	doi = {10.1017/9781108943505},
}

@article{ferree_land_2022,
	title = {Land and Legibility: When Do Citizens Expect Secure Property Rights in Weak States?},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/land-and-legibility-when-do-citizens-expect-secure-property-rights-in-weak-states/02ABF2F423907B7A28C243E4D54EFB5E},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055422000417},
	shorttitle = {Land and Legibility},
	abstract = {Legibility and political authority are often conflated in debates over formalization processes, including land titling. This can lead to a fundamental misunderstanding of what it is that citizens anticipate would strengthen their property rights. This study examines the effects of legibility on citizens’ evaluations of property rights in Malawi, a country with limited but increasing land titling. We argue that legibility is a strategic resource for citizens, which has value in itself. To disentangle the effects of legibility and authority on tenure security, we employ a survey experiment. Our findings show that respondents perceived land with written property rights to be more secure and more desirable regardless of whether a state or customary authority granted these land rights. In contrast to scholarship that examines legibility as a technology of state control, this research suggests that legibility can help citizens advance their interests.},
	pages = {1--17},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Ferree, Karen E. and Honig, Lauren and Lust, Ellen and Phillips, Melanie L.},
	urldate = {2022-05-19},
	date = {2022-05-02},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
}

@book{cammett_politics_2014,
	title = {The Politics of Non-state Social Welfare},
	isbn = {978-0-8014-5264-2},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.7591/j.ctt5hh1h7},
	abstract = {Across the world, welfare states are under challenge (or were never developed extensively in the first place) while non-state actors increasingly provide public goods and basic welfare. In many parts of the Middle East and South Asia, sectarian organizations and political parties supply basic services to ordinary people more extensively and effectively than governments. In sub-Saharan Africa, families struggle to pay hospital fees, and nongovernmental organizations ({NGOs}) launch welfare programs as states cut subsidies and social programs. Likewise, in parts of Latin America, international and domestic {NGOs} and, increasingly, private firms are key suppliers of social welfare in both urban and rural communities. Even in the United States, where the welfare state is far more developed, secular {NGOs} and faith-based organizations are critical components of social safety nets. Despite official entitlements to public welfare, citizens in Russia face increasing out-of-pocket expenses as they are effectively compelled to seek social services through the private market.  In \textit{The Politics of Non-state Social Welfare} , a multidisciplinary group of contributors use survey data analysis, spatial analysis, in-depth interviews, and ethnographic and archival research to explore the fundamental transformation of the relationship between states and citizens. The book highlights the political consequences of the non-state provision of social welfare, including the ramifications for equitable and sustainable access to social services, accountability for citizens, and state capacity. The authors do not assume that non-state providers will surpass the performance of weak, inefficient, or sometimes corrupt states but instead offer a systematic analysis of a wide spectrum of non-state actors in a variety of contexts around the world, including sectarian political parties, faith-based organizations, community-based organizations, family networks, informal brokers, and private firms.  Contributors:Scott Allard, University of Chicago; Jennifer N. Brass, Indiana University; Melani Cammett, Brown University; Linda Cook, Brown University; Ian Gough, London School of Economics; Michael Jennings, School of Oriental and African Studies; Anirudh Krishna, Duke University; Pauline Jones Luong, University of Michigan; Lauren M. {MacLean}, Indiana University; Alejandra Mizala, University of Chile; Alison Post, University of California, Berkeley; Ben Ross Schneider, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.},
	publisher = {Cornell University Press},
	editorb = {{CAMMETT}, {MELANI} and {MACLEAN}, {LAUREN} M.},
	editorbtype = {redactor},
	urldate = {2022-05-17},
	date = {2014},
}

@article{bozcaga_unintended_2021,
	title = {The Unintended Consequences of Nation-Making Institutions for Civil Society Development},
	volume = {1},
	pages = {591--613},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Historical Political Economy},
	author = {Bozcaga, Tugba and Cansunar, Asli},
	date = {2021},
	note = {Publisher: Now Publishers, Inc.},
}

@article{brooke_coercive_nodate,
	title = {Coercive Labor Markets and Long-Run Poverty: Evidence from Modern Egypt},
	url = {https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ee8ff721d638434d2f82093/t/61c4cf739e596c4c81c9513c/1640288121043/ezba_wrking.pdf},
	abstract = {Slavery depresses long-term economic growth. However the developmental legacies of coercive labor regimes that emerged following slavery’s formal abolition are less clear. While falling short of slavery’s extreme brutality, these institutions still relied on considerable exploitation and violence. This paper examines the enduring effects of one such institution, the Egyptian ‘izba. This turn-of-the-century institution used systematic surveillance and coercion to facilitate the industrial scale production of cotton until it was dismantled by a land reform in 1952. Combining spatial data on thousands of former ‘izba, with geo-located survey data on 50,000 Egyptian families reveals a deleterious effect on contemporary wealth that is robust to a variety of specifications as well as an instrumental variables regression. Further analysis is consistent with arguments that unintended side effects of the reform, in particular restrictions on resale and price controls for beneficiaries, are responsible for these results.},
	pages = {33},
	author = {Brooke, Steven and Koehler-Derrick, Gabriel},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{beck_corruption_2013,
	title = {Corruption in the Middle East},
	journaltitle = {Center for Mellemoststudier, Syddansk University, available at: http://static. sdu. dk/mediafiles/9/2/F/\% 7B92FA1D7B-{FED}6-4404-8947-F476DAF9F4CA\% 7DMB0313. pdf (accessed November 30, 2015)},
	author = {Beck, Martin},
	date = {2013},
}

@online{noauthor_why_nodate,
	title = {Why the Dunning-Krueger Effect is Probably Not Real},
	url = {https://jmbuhr.de/posts/2021-03-20-why-the-dunning-krueger-effect-is-probably-not-real/},
	abstract = {Explaining cut-off effects through examples.},
	titleaddon = {jmbuhr.de},
	urldate = {2022-05-13},
	langid = {english},
}

@online{noauthor_dunning-kruger_nodate,
	title = {The Dunning-Kruger Effect Is Probably Not Real},
	url = {https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/critical-thinking/dunning-kruger-effect-probably-not-real},
	abstract = {I want the Dunning-Kruger effect to be real. First described in a seminal 1999 paper by David Dunning and Justin Kruger, this effect has been the darling of journalists who want to explain why dumb people don’t know they’re dumb. There’s even video of a fantastic pastiche of Turandot’s famous aria, Nessun dorma, explaining the Dunning-Kruger effect. “They don’t know,” the opera singer belts out at the climax, “that they don’t know.” I was planning on writing a very short article about the Dunning-Kruger effect and it felt like shooting fish in a barrel. Here’s the effect, how it was discovered, what it means. End of story. But as I double-checked the academic literature, doubt started to creep in. While trying to understand the criticism that had been leveled at the original study, I fell down a rabbit hole, spoke to a few statistics-minded people, corresponded with Dr. Dunning himself, and tried to understand if our brain really was biased to overstate our competence in activities at which we suck... or if the celebrated effect was just a mirage brought about by the peculiar way in which we can play with numbers. Have we been overstating our confidence in the Dunning-Kruger effect? A misunderstood effect The most important mistake people make about the Dunning-Kruger effect, according to Dr. Dunning, has to do with who falls victim to it. “The effect is about us, not them,” he wrote to me. “The lesson of the effect was always about how we should be humble and cautious about ourselves.” The Dunning-Kruger effect is not about dumb people. It’s mostly about all of us when it comes to things we are not very competent at. In a nutshell, the Dunning-Kruger effect was originally defined as a bias in our thinking. If I am terrible at English grammar and am told to answer a quiz testing my knowledge of English grammar, this bias in my thinking would lead me, according to the theory, to believe I would get a higher score than I actually would. And if I excel at English grammar, the effect dictates I would be likely to slightly underestimate how well I would do. I might predict I would get a 70\% score while my actual score would be 90\%. But if my actual score was 15\% (because I’m terrible at grammar), I might think more highly of myself and predict a score of 60\%. This discrepancy is the effect, and it is thought to be due to a specific problem with our brain’s ability to assess its skills. This is what student participants went through for Dunning and Kruger’s research project in the late 1990s. There were assessments of grammar, of humour, and of logical reasoning. Everyone was asked how well they thought they did and everyone was also graded objectively, and the two were compared. Since then, many studies have been done that have reported this effect in other domains of knowledge. Dr. Dunning tells me he believes the effect “has more to do with being misinformed rather than uninformed.” If I am asked the boiling point of mercury, it is clear my brain does not hold the answer. But if I am asked what is the capital of Scotland, I may think I know enough to say Glasgow, but it turns out it’s Edinburgh. That’s misinformation and it’s pushing down on that confidence button in my brain. So case closed, right? On the contrary. In 2016 and 2017, two papers were published in a mathematics journal called Numeracy. In them, the authors argued that the Dunning-Kruger effect was a mirage. And I tend to agree. The effect is in the noise The two papers, by Dr. Ed Nuhfer and colleagues, argued that the Dunning-Kruger effect could be replicated by using random data. “We all then believed the [1999] paper was valid,” Dr. Nuhfer told me via email. “The reasoning and argument just made so much sense. We never set out to disprove it; we were even fans of that paper.” In Dr. Nuhfer’s own papers, which used both computer-generated data and results from actual people undergoing a science literacy test, his team disproved the claim that most people that are unskilled are unaware of it (“a small number are: we saw about 5-6\% that fit that in our data”) and instead showed that both experts and novices underestimate and overestimate their skills with the same frequency. “It’s just that experts do that over a narrower range,” he wrote to me. Wrapping my brain around all this took weeks. I recruited a husband-and-wife team, Dr. Patrick E. {McKnight} (from the Department of Psychology at George Mason University, also on the advisory board of Sense About Science and {STATS}.org) and Dr. Simone C. {McKnight} (from Global Systems Technologies, Inc.), to help me understand what was going on. Patrick {McKnight} not only believed in the existence of the Dunning-Kruger effect: he was teaching it to warn his students to be mindful of what they actually knew versus what they thought they knew. But after replicating Dr. Nuhfer’s findings using a different platform (the statistical computing language R instead of Nuhfer’s Microsoft Excel), he became convinced the effect was just an artefact of how the thing that was being measured was indeed measured. We had long conversations over this as I kept pushing back. As a skeptic, I am easily enticed by stories of the sort “everything you know about this is wrong.” That’s my bias. To overcome it, I kept playing devil’s advocate with the {McKnights} to make sure we were not forgetting something. Every time I felt my understanding crystallize, doubt would creep in the next day and my discussion with the {McKnights} would resume. I finally reached a point where I was fairly certain the Dunning-Kruger effect had not been shown to be a bias in our thinking but was just an artefact. Here then is the simplest explanation I have for why the effect appears to be real. For an effect of human psychology to be real, it cannot be rigorously replicated using random noise. If the human brain was predisposed to choose heads when a coin is flipped, you could compare this to random predictions (heads or tails) made by a computer and see the bias. A human would call more heads than the computer would because the computer is making random bets whereas the human is biased toward heads. With the Dunning-Kruger effect, this is not the case. Random data actually mimics the effect really well. The effect as originally described in 1999 makes use of a very peculiar type of graph. “This graph, to my knowledge, is quite unusual for most areas of science,” Patrick {McKnight} told me. In the original experiment, students took a test and were asked to guess their score. Therefore, each student had two data points: the score they thought they got (self-assessment) and the score they actually got (performance). In order to visualize these results, Dunning and Kruger separated everybody into quartiles: those who performed in the bottom 25\%, those who scored in the top 25\%, and the two quartiles in the middle. For each quartile, the average performance score and the average self-assessed score was plotted. This resulted in the famous Dunning-Kruger graph. Plotted this way, it looks like those in the bottom 25\% thought they did much better than they did, and those in the top 25\% underestimated their performance. This observation was thought to be due to the human brain: the unskilled are unaware of it. But if we remove the human brain from the equation, we get this: The above Dunning-Kruger graph was created by Patrick {McKnight} using computer-generated results for both self-assessment and performance. The numbers were random. There was no bias in the coding that would lead these fictitious students to guess they had done really well when their actual score was very low. And yet we can see that the two lines look eerily similar to those of Dunning and Kruger’s seminal experiment. A similar simulation was done by Dr. Phillip Ackerman and colleagues three years after the original Dunning-Kruger paper, and the results were similar. Measuring someone’s perception of anything, including their own skills, is fraught with difficulties. How well I think I did on my test today could change if the whole thing was done tomorrow, when my mood might differ and my self-confidence may waver. This measurement of self-assessment is thus, to a degree, unreliable. This unreliability--sometimes massive, sometimes not--means that any true psychological effect that does exist will be measured as smaller in the context of an experiment. This is called attenuation due to unreliability. “Scores of books, articles, and chapters highlight the problem with measurement error and attenuated effects,” Patrick {McKnight} wrote to me. In his simulation with random measurements, the so-called Dunning-Kruger effect actually becomes more visible as the measurement error increases. “We have no instance in the history of scientific discovery,” he continued, “where a finding improves by increasing measurement error. None.” Breaking the spell When I plug “Dunning-Kruger effect” into Google News, I get over 8,500 hits from media outlets like The New York Times, New Scientist, and the {CBC}. So many simply endorse the effect as a real bias of the brain, so it’s no wonder that people are not aware of the academic criticism that has existed since the effect was first published. It’s not just Dr. Nuhfer and his Numeracy papers. Other academic critics have pointed the finger, for example, at regression to the mean. But as Patrick {McKnight} points out, regression to the mean occurs when the same measure is taken over time and we track its evolution. If I take my temperature every morning and one day spike a fever, that same measure will (hopefully) go down the next day and return to its mean value as my fever abates. That’s regression to the mean. But in the context of the Dunning-Kruger effect, nothing is measured over time, and self-assessment and performance are different measures entirely, so regression to the mean should not apply. The unreliability of the self-assessment measurement itself, however, is a strong contender to explain a good chunk of what Dunning, Kruger, and other scientists who have since reported this effect in other contexts were actually describing. This story is not over. There will undoubtedly be more ink spilled in academic journals over this issue, which is a healthy part of scientific research after all. Studying protons and electrons is relatively easy as these particles don’t have a mind of their own; studying human psychology, by comparison, is much harder because the number of variables being juggled is incredibly high. It is thus really easy for findings in psychology to appear real when they are not. Are there dumb people who do not realize they are dumb? Sure, but that was never what the Dunning-Kruger effect was about. Are there people who are very confident and arrogant in their ignorance? Absolutely, but here too, Dunning and Kruger did not measure confidence or arrogance back in 1999. There are other effects known to psychologists, like the overconfidence bias and the better-than-average bias (where most car drivers believe themselves to be well above average, which makes no mathematical sense), so if the Dunning-Kruger effect is convincingly shown to be nothing but a mirage, it does not mean the human brain is spotless. And if researchers continue to believe in the effect in the face of weighty criticism, this is not a paradoxical example of the Dunning-Kruger effect. In the original classic experiments, students received no feedback when making their self-assessment. It is fair to say researchers are in a different position now. The words “Dunning-Kruger effect” have been wielded as an incantation by journalists and skeptics alike for years to explain away stupidity and incompetence. It may be time to break that spell. Take-home message: - The Dunning-Kruger effect was originally described in 1999 as the observation that people who are terrible at a particular task think they are much better than they are, while people who are very good at it tend to underestimate their competence - The Dunning-Kruger effect was never about “dumb people not knowing they are dumb” or about “ignorant people being very arrogant and confident in their lack of knowledge.” - Because the effect can be seen in random, computer-generated data, it may not be a real flaw in our thinking and thus may not really exist @{CrackedScience} Leave a comment!},
	titleaddon = {Office for Science and Society},
	urldate = {2022-05-13},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{nuhfer_random_2016,
	title = {Random Number Simulations Reveal How Random Noise Affects the Measurements and Graphical Portrayals of Self-Assessed Competency},
	volume = {9},
	issn = {1936-4660 (Online)},
	url = {https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/numeracy/vol9/iss1/art4},
	doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/1936-4660.9.1.4},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Numeracy},
	author = {Nuhfer, Edward and Cogan, Christopher and Fleisher, Steven and Gaze, Eric and Wirth, Karl},
	date = {2016-01-07},
}

@report{denmark_more_2020,
	title = {More pain than gain: How the {US}-China trade war hurt America},
	url = {https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/08/07/more-pain-than-gain-how-the-us-china-trade-war-hurt-america/},
	shorttitle = {More pain than gain},
	abstract = {The ultimate results of the phase one trade deal between China and the United States — and the trade war that preceded it — have significantly hurt the American economy without solving the underlying economic concerns that the trade war was meant to resolve, write Ryan Hass and Abraham Denmark.},
	institution = {The Brookings Institution},
	author = {Denmark, Ryan Hass \{and\} Abraham},
	urldate = {2022-05-05},
	date = {2020-08-07},
	langid = {american},
}

@article{rogowski_how_2016,
	title = {How Ideology Fuels Affective Polarization},
	volume = {38},
	issn = {1573-6687},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-015-9323-7},
	doi = {10.1007/s11109-015-9323-7},
	abstract = {Scholars have reached mixed conclusions about the implications of increased political polarization for citizen decision-making. In this paper, we argue that citizens respond to ideological divergence with heightened affective polarization. Using a survey experiment conducted with a nationally representative sample of U.S. citizens, we find that increased ideological differences between political figures produce increasingly polarized affective evaluations, and that these differences are especially large among respondents with stronger ideological commitments and higher levels of political interest. We provide further support for these findings in an observational study of citizens’ evaluations of the U.S. Senators from their state. We also find that the polarizing effects of ideological differences can be largely mitigated with biographical information about the public officials, which suggests that the pernicious consequences of ideological polarization can be overcome by focusing on matters other than political disagreement.},
	pages = {485--508},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Political Behavior},
	shortjournal = {Polit Behav},
	author = {Rogowski, Jon C. and Sutherland, Joseph L.},
	urldate = {2022-05-05},
	date = {2016-06-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Affect, Electoral competition, Ideology, Polarization},
}

@book{fiorina_unstable_2017,
	title = {Unstable Majorities},
	url = {https://www.hoover.org/research/unstablemajorities},
	abstract = {The American public is not as polarized as pundits say. In Unstable Majorities Morris P. Fiorina confronts one of the most commonly held assumptions in contemporary American politics: which is that voters are now more polarized than ever. Bringing research and historical context to his discussion of the American electorate and its voting patterns, he corrects misconceptions about polarization, voter behavior, and political parties, arguing that party sorting—not polarization—is the key to understanding our current political turbulence.},
	publisher = {The Hoover Institution},
	author = {Fiorina, Morris P.},
	urldate = {2022-05-05},
	date = {2017},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{iyengar_origins_2019,
	title = {The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States},
	volume = {22},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051117-073034},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-polisci-051117-073034},
	abstract = {While previously polarization was primarily seen only in issue-based terms, a new type of division has emerged in the mass public in recent years: Ordinary Americans increasingly dislike and distrust those from the other party. Democrats and Republicans both say that the other party's members are hypocritical, selfish, and closed-minded, and they are unwilling to socialize across party lines. This phenomenon of animosity between the parties is known as affective polarization. We trace its origins to the power of partisanship as a social identity, and explain the factors that intensify partisan animus. We also explore the consequences of affective polarization, highlighting how partisan affect influences attitudes and behaviors well outside the political sphere. Finally, we discuss strategies that might mitigate partisan discord and conclude with suggestions for future work.},
	pages = {129--146},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Iyengar, Shanto and Lelkes, Yphtach and Levendusky, Matthew and Malhotra, Neil and Westwood, Sean J.},
	urldate = {2022-05-05},
	date = {2019},
	note = {\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051117-073034},
	keywords = {American politics, affective polarization, ideology, partisanship, social identity},
}

@article{iyengar_affect_2012,
	title = {{AFFECT}, {NOT} {IDEOLOGY}: A {SOCIAL} {IDENTITY} {PERSPECTIVE} {ON} {POLARIZATION}},
	volume = {76},
	issn = {0033-362X},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/41684577},
	shorttitle = {{AFFECT}, {NOT} {IDEOLOGY}},
	abstract = {The current debate over the extent of polarization in the American mass public focuses on the extent to which partisans' policy preferences have moved. Whereas "maximalists" claim that partisans' views on policies have become more extreme over time (Abramowitz 2010), "minimalists" (Fiorina and Abrams 2009) contend that the majority of Americans remain centrist, and that what little centrifugal movement has occurred reflects sorting, i.e., the increased association between partisanship and ideology. We argue in favor of an alternative definition of polarization, based on the classic concept of social distance (Bogardus 1947). Using data from a variety of sources, we demonstrate that both Republicans and Democrats increasingly dislike, even loathe, their opponents. We also find that partisan affect is inconsistently (and perhaps artifactually) founded in policy attitudes. The more plausible account lies in the nature of political campaigns; exposure to messages attacking the out-group reinforces partisans' biased views of their opponents.},
	pages = {405--431},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {The Public Opinion Quarterly},
	author = {{IYENGAR}, {SHANTO} and {SOOD}, {GAURAV} and {LELKES}, {YPHTACH}},
	urldate = {2022-05-05},
	date = {2012},
	note = {Publisher: American Association for Public Opinion Research},
}

@article{callaway_rational_2022,
	title = {Rational use of cognitive resources in human planning},
	rights = {2022 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01332-8},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-022-01332-8},
	abstract = {Making good decisions requires thinking ahead, but the huge number of actions and outcomes one could consider makes exhaustive planning infeasible for computationally constrained agents, such as humans. How people are nevertheless able to solve novel problems when their actions have long-reaching consequences is thus a long-standing question in cognitive science. To address this question, we propose a model of resource-constrained planning that allows us to derive optimal planning strategies. We find that previously proposed heuristics such as best-first search are near optimal under some circumstances but not others. In a mouse-tracking paradigm, we show that people adapt their planning strategies accordingly, planning in a manner that is broadly consistent with the optimal model but not with any single heuristic model. We also find systematic deviations from the optimal model that might result from additional cognitive constraints that are yet to be uncovered.},
	pages = {1--14},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Callaway, Frederick and van Opheusden, Bas and Gul, Sayan and Das, Priyam and Krueger, Paul M. and Lieder, Falk and Griffiths, Thomas L.},
	urldate = {2022-05-05},
	date = {2022-04-28},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Human behaviour},
}

@article{shi_wisdom_2019,
	title = {The wisdom of polarized crowds},
	volume = {3},
	rights = {2019 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-019-0541-6},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-019-0541-6},
	abstract = {As political polarization in the United States continues to rise1–3, the question of whether polarized individuals can fruitfully cooperate becomes pressing. Although diverse perspectives typically lead to superior team performance on complex tasks4,5, strong political perspectives have been associated with conflict, misinformation and a reluctance to engage with people and ideas beyond one’s echo chamber6–8. Here, we explore the effect of ideological composition on team performance by analysing millions of edits to Wikipedia’s political, social issues and science articles. We measure editors’ online ideological preferences by how much they contribute to conservative versus liberal articles. Editor surveys suggest that online contributions associate with offline political party affiliation and ideological self-identity. Our analysis reveals that polarized teams consisting of a balanced set of ideologically diverse editors produce articles of a higher quality than homogeneous teams. The effect is most clearly seen in Wikipedia’s political articles, but also in social issues and even science articles. Analysis of article ‘talk pages’ reveals that ideologically polarized teams engage in longer, more constructive, competitive and substantively focused but linguistically diverse debates than teams of ideological moderates. More intense use of Wikipedia policies by ideologically diverse teams suggests institutional design principles to help unleash the power of polarization.},
	pages = {329--336},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Shi, Feng and Teplitskiy, Misha and Duede, Eamon and Evans, James A.},
	urldate = {2022-05-05},
	date = {2019-04},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Number: 4
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Business and management, Complex networks, Science, Scientific community, Sociology, technology and society},
}

@article{guess_exposure_2020,
	title = {Exposure to untrustworthy websites in the 2016 {US} election},
	volume = {4},
	rights = {2020 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0833-x},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-020-0833-x},
	abstract = {Although commentators frequently warn about echo chambers, little is known about the volume or slant of political misinformation that people consume online, the effects of social media and fact checking on exposure, or the effects of political misinformation on behaviour. Here, we evaluate these questions for websites that publish factually dubious content, which is often described as fake news. Survey and web-traffic data from the 2016 {US} presidential campaign show that supporters of Donald Trump were most likely to visit these websites, which often spread through Facebook. However, these websites made up a small share of people’s information diets on average and were largely consumed by a subset of Americans with strong preferences for pro-attitudinal information. These results suggest that the widespread speculation about the prevalence of exposure to untrustworthy websites has been overstated.},
	pages = {472--480},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Guess, Andrew M. and Nyhan, Brendan and Reifler, Jason},
	urldate = {2022-05-05},
	date = {2020-05},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Number: 5
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Cultural and media studies, Politics and international relations, Science, technology and society},
}

@article{ruisch_changes_2022,
	title = {Changes in Americans’ prejudices during the presidency of Donald Trump},
	rights = {2022 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01287-2},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-021-01287-2},
	abstract = {The presidency of Donald Trump represented a relatively unique event in modern American history, whereby a sitting {US} president made numerous controversial remarks about minoritized groups yet nonetheless maintained substantial public support. Trump’s comments constituted a departure from the egalitarian norms that had long characterized American political discourse. Here, we examine the potential effects of Trump’s rhetoric on Americans’ attitudes, predicting that these high-profile norm violations may have reshaped the personal prejudices of the American people. In 13 studies including over 10,000 participants, we tested how Americans’ prejudice changed following the political ascension of Donald Trump. We found that explicit racial and religious prejudice significantly increased amongst Trump’s supporters, whereas individuals opposed to Trump exhibited decreases in prejudice. Further, changing social norms appear to explain these changes in prejudice. These results suggest that Trump’s presidency coincided with a substantial change in the topography of prejudice in the United States.},
	pages = {1--10},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Ruisch, Benjamin C. and Ferguson, Melissa J.},
	urldate = {2022-05-05},
	date = {2022-02-21},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Human behaviour, Politics and international relations, Psychology},
}

@article{druckman_affective_2021,
	title = {Affective polarization, local contexts and public opinion in America},
	volume = {5},
	rights = {2020 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01012-5},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-020-01012-5},
	abstract = {Affective polarization has become a defining feature of twenty-first-century {US} politics, but we do not know how it relates to citizens’ policy opinions. Answering this question has fundamental implications not only for understanding the political consequences of polarization, but also for understanding how citizens form preferences. Under most political circumstances, this is a difficult question to answer, but the novel coronavirus pandemic allows us to understand how partisan animus contributes to opinion formation. Using a two-wave panel that spans the outbreak of {COVID}-19, we find a strong association between citizens’ levels of partisan animosity and their attitudes about the pandemic, as well as the actions they take in response to it. This relationship, however, is more muted in areas with severe outbreaks of the disease. Our results make clear that narrowing of issue divides requires not only policy discourse but also addressing affective partisan hostility.},
	pages = {28--38},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Druckman, James N. and Klar, Samara and Krupnikov, Yanna and Levendusky, Matthew and Ryan, John Barry},
	urldate = {2022-05-05},
	date = {2021-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Number: 1
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Politics and international relations, Psychology, Sociology},
}

@article{bhadani_political_2022,
	title = {Political audience diversity and news reliability in algorithmic ranking},
	volume = {6},
	rights = {2022 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01276-5},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-021-01276-5},
	abstract = {Newsfeed algorithms frequently amplify misinformation and other low-quality content. How can social media platforms more effectively promote reliable information? Existing approaches are difficult to scale and vulnerable to manipulation. In this paper, we propose using the political diversity of a website’s audience as a quality signal. Using news source reliability ratings from domain experts and web browsing data from a diverse sample of 6,890 {US} residents, we first show that websites with more extreme and less politically diverse audiences have lower journalistic standards. We then incorporate audience diversity into a standard collaborative filtering framework and show that our improved algorithm increases the trustworthiness of websites suggested to users—especially those who most frequently consume misinformation—while keeping recommendations relevant. These findings suggest that partisan audience diversity is a valuable signal of higher journalistic standards that should be incorporated into algorithmic ranking decisions.},
	pages = {495--505},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Bhadani, Saumya and Yamaya, Shun and Flammini, Alessandro and Menczer, Filippo and Ciampaglia, Giovanni Luca and Nyhan, Brendan},
	urldate = {2022-05-05},
	date = {2022-04},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Number: 4
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Mathematics and computing, Politics and international relations},
}

@article{gollwitzer_partisan_2020,
	title = {Partisan differences in physical distancing are linked to health outcomes during the {COVID}-19 pandemic},
	volume = {4},
	rights = {2020 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-00977-7},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-020-00977-7},
	abstract = {Numerous polls suggest that {COVID}-19 is a profoundly partisan issue in the United States. Using the geotracking data of 15 million smartphones per day, we found that {US} counties that voted for Donald Trump (Republican) over Hillary Clinton (Democrat) in the 2016 presidential election exhibited 14\% less physical distancing between March and May 2020. Partisanship was more strongly associated with physical distancing than numerous other factors, including counties’ {COVID}-19 cases, population density, median income, and racial and age demographics. Contrary to our predictions, the observed partisan gap strengthened over time and remained when stay-at-home orders were active. Additionally, county-level consumption of conservative media (Fox News) was related to reduced physical distancing. Finally, the observed partisan differences in distancing were associated with subsequently higher {COVID}-19 infection and fatality growth rates in pro-Trump counties. Taken together, these data suggest that {US} citizens’ responses to {COVID}-19 are subject to a deep—and consequential—partisan divide.},
	pages = {1186--1197},
	number = {11},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Gollwitzer, Anton and Martel, Cameron and Brady, William J. and Pärnamets, Philip and Freedman, Isaac G. and Knowles, Eric D. and Van Bavel, Jay J.},
	urldate = {2022-05-05},
	date = {2020-11},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Number: 11
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Human behaviour, Politics and international relations, Viral infection},
}

@article{brown_measurement_2021,
	title = {The measurement of partisan sorting for 180 million voters},
	volume = {5},
	rights = {2021 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01066-z},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-021-01066-z},
	abstract = {Segregation across social groups is an enduring feature of nearly all human societies and is associated with numerous social maladies. In many countries, reports of growing geographic political polarization raise concerns about the stability of democratic governance. Here, using advances in spatial data computation, we measure individual partisan segregation by calculating the local residential segregation of every registered voter in the United States, creating a spatially weighted measure for more than 180 million individuals. With these data, we present evidence of extensive partisan segregation in the country. A large proportion of voters live with virtually no exposure to voters from the other party in their residential environment. Such high levels of partisan isolation can be found across a range of places and densities and are distinct from racial and ethnic segregation. Moreover, Democrats and Republicans living in the same city, or even the same neighbourhood, are segregated by party.},
	pages = {998--1008},
	number = {8},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Brown, Jacob R. and Enos, Ryan D.},
	urldate = {2022-05-05},
	date = {2021-08},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Number: 8
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Geography, Politics and international relations, Sociology},
}

@online{welle_wwwdwcom_who_nodate,
	title = {Who will save Tunisia's democracy now? {\textbar} {DW} {\textbar} 27.04.2022},
	url = {https://www.dw.com/en/who-will-save-tunisias-democracy-now/a-61599094},
	shorttitle = {Who will save Tunisia's democracy now?},
	abstract = {Tunisia's president has been carrying out a creeping coup, demolishing the country's hard-fought democratic gains bit by bit. With an economy in turmoil and a splintered opposition, is there anybody that can stop him?},
	titleaddon = {{DW}.{COM}},
	author = {Welle (www.dw.com), Deutsche},
	urldate = {2022-05-04},
	langid = {british},
}

@article{jansen_rational_2021,
	title = {A rational model of the Dunning–Kruger effect supports insensitivity to evidence in low performers},
	volume = {5},
	rights = {2021 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01057-0},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-021-01057-0},
	abstract = {Evaluating one’s own performance on a task, typically known as ‘self-assessment’, is perceived as a fundamental skill, but people appear poorly calibrated to their abilities. Studies seem to show poorer calibration for low performers than for high performers, which could indicate worse metacognitive ability among low performers relative to others (the Dunning–Kruger effect). By developing a rational model of self-assessment, we show that such an effect could be produced by two psychological mechanisms, in either isolation or conjunction: influence of prior beliefs about ability or a relation between performance and skill at determining correctness on each problem. To disentangle these explanations, we conducted a large-scale replication of a seminal paper with approximately 4,000 participants in each of two studies. Comparing the predictions of two variants of our rational model provides support for low performers being less able to estimate whether they are correct in the domains of grammar and logical reasoning.},
	pages = {756--763},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Jansen, Rachel A. and Rafferty, Anna N. and Griffiths, Thomas L.},
	urldate = {2022-05-02},
	date = {2021-06},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Number: 6
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Human behaviour},
}

@article{cinelli_making_2020,
	title = {Making sense of sensitivity: extending omitted variable bias},
	volume = {82},
	issn = {1467-9868},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/rssb.12348},
	doi = {10.1111/rssb.12348},
	shorttitle = {Making sense of sensitivity},
	abstract = {We extend the omitted variable bias framework with a suite of tools for sensitivity analysis in regression models that does not require assumptions on the functional form of the treatment assignment mechanism nor on the distribution of the unobserved confounders, naturally handles multiple confounders, possibly acting non-linearly, exploits expert knowledge to bound sensitivity parameters and can be easily computed by using only standard regression results. In particular, we introduce two novel sensitivity measures suited for routine reporting. The robustness value describes the minimum strength of association that unobserved confounding would need to have, both with the treatment and with the outcome, to change the research conclusions. The partial R2 of the treatment with the outcome shows how strongly confounders explaining all the residual outcome variation would have to be associated with the treatment to eliminate the estimated effect. Next, we offer graphical tools for elaborating on problematic confounders, examining the sensitivity of point estimates and t-values, as well as ‘extreme scenarios’. Finally, we describe problems with a common ‘benchmarking’ practice and introduce a novel procedure to bound the strength of confounders formally on the basis of a comparison with observed covariates. We apply these methods to a running example that estimates the effect of exposure to violence on attitudes toward peace.},
	pages = {39--67},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology)},
	author = {Cinelli, Carlos and Hazlett, Chad},
	urldate = {2022-04-29},
	date = {2020},
	langid = {english},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/rssb.12348},
	keywords = {Causal inference, Confounding, Omitted variable bias, Regression, Robustness value, Sensitivity analysis},
}

@article{ahangaran_causal_2019,
	title = {Causal discovery from sequential data in {ALS} disease based on entropy criteria},
	volume = {89},
	issn = {1532-0464},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1532046418302004},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jbi.2018.10.004},
	abstract = {One of the most important issues in predictive modeling is to determine major cause factors of a phenomenon and causal relationships between them. Extracting causal relationships between parameters in a natural phenomenon can be accomplished through checking the parameters’ changes in consecutive events. In addition, using information and probabilistic theory help better conception of causal relationships of a phenomenon. Therefore, probabilistic causal discovery from sequential data of a natural phenomenon can be useful for dimension reduction and predicting the future trend of a process. In this paper, we introduce a novel method for causal discovery from a sequential data based on a probabilistic causal graph. In this method, first, Causal Feature Dependency matrix ({CFD} matrix) is generated based on the features’ changes in consecutive events. Then, a probabilistic causal graph is created from {CFD} matrix. In this graph, some valueless features will be eliminated on the basis of entropy value of each conditional density function. Finally, prediction operation is performed based on the output of causal graph. Experimental results on the Pooled Resource Open-Access {ALS} Clinical Trials ({PRO}-{ACT}) sequential data set from Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis ({ALS}) disease show that our proposed algorithm can predict the progression rate of {ALS} disease properly with high precision.},
	pages = {41--55},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Biomedical Informatics},
	shortjournal = {Journal of Biomedical Informatics},
	author = {Ahangaran, M. and Jahed-Motlagh, M. R. and Minaei-Bidgoli, B.},
	urldate = {2022-04-27},
	date = {2019-01-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis, Causal discovery, Entropy, Phenomenon, Prediction},
}

@inproceedings{kocaoglu_entropic_2017,
	title = {Entropic Causal Inference},
	rights = {Authors who publish a paper in this conference agree to the following terms:   Author(s) agree to transfer their copyrights in their article/paper to the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence ({AAAI}), in order to deal with future requests for reprints, translations, anthologies, reproductions, excerpts, and other publications. This grant will include, without limitation, the entire copyright in the article/paper in all countries of the world, including all renewals, extensions, and reversions thereof, whether such rights current exist or hereafter come into effect, and also the exclusive right to create electronic versions of the article/paper, to the extent that such right is not subsumed under copyright.  The author(s) warrants that they are the sole author and owner of the copyright in the above article/paper, except for those portions shown to be in quotations; that the article/paper is original throughout; and that the undersigned right to make the grants set forth above is complete and unencumbered.  The author(s) agree that if anyone brings any claim or action alleging facts that, if true, constitute a breach of any of the foregoing warranties, the author(s) will hold harmless and indemnify {AAAI}, their grantees, their licensees, and their distributors against any liability, whether under judgment, decree, or compromise, and any legal fees and expenses arising out of that claim or actions, and the undersigned will cooperate fully in any defense {AAAI} may make to such claim or action. Moreover, the undersigned agrees to cooperate in any claim or other action seeking to protect or enforce any right the undersigned has granted to {AAAI} in the article/paper. If any such claim or action fails because of facts that constitute a breach of any of the foregoing warranties, the undersigned agrees to reimburse whomever brings such claim or action for expenses and attorneys’ fees incurred therein.  Author(s) retain all proprietary rights other than copyright (such as patent rights).  Author(s) may make personal reuse of all or portions of the above article/paper in other works of their own authorship.  Author(s) may reproduce, or have reproduced, their article/paper for the author’s personal use, or for company use provided that {AAAI} copyright and the source are indicated, and that the copies are not used in a way that implies {AAAI} endorsement of a product or service of an employer, and that the copies per se are not offered for sale. The foregoing right shall not permit the posting of the article/paper in electronic or digital form on any computer network, except by the author or the author’s employer, and then only on the author’s or the employer’s own web page or ftp site. Such web page or ftp site, in addition to the aforementioned requirements of this Paragraph, must provide an electronic reference or link back to the {AAAI} electronic server, and shall not post other {AAAI} copyrighted materials not of the author’s or the employer’s creation (including tables of contents with links to other papers) without {AAAI}’s written permission.  Author(s) may make limited distribution of all or portions of their article/paper prior to publication.  In the case of work performed under U.S. Government contract, {AAAI} grants the U.S. Government royalty-free permission to reproduce all or portions of the above article/paper, and to authorize others to do so, for U.S. Government purposes.  In the event the above article/paper is not accepted and published by {AAAI}, or is withdrawn by the author(s) before acceptance by {AAAI}, this agreement becomes null and void.},
	url = {https://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/AAAI/AAAI17/paper/view/14218},
	abstract = {We consider the problem of identifying the causal direction between two discrete random variables using observational data. Unlike previous work, we keep the most general functional model but make an assumption on the unobserved exogenous variable: Inspired by Occam's razor, we assume that the exogenous variable is simple in the true causal direction. We quantify simplicity using Renyi entropy. Our main result is that, under natural assumptions, if the exogenous variable has low H0 entropy (cardinality) in the true direction, it must have high H0 entropy in the wrong direction. We establish several algorithmic hardness results about estimating the minimum entropy exogenous variable. We show that the problem of finding the exogenous variable with minimum H1 entropy (Shannon Entropy) is equivalent to the problem of finding minimum joint entropy given n marginal distributions, also known as minimum entropy coupling problem. We propose an efficient greedy algorithm for the minimum entropy coupling problem, that for n=2 provably finds a local optimum. This gives a greedy algorithm for finding the exogenous variable with minimum Shannon entropy. Our greedy entropy-based causal inference algorithm has similar performance to the state of the art additive noise models in real datasets. One advantage of our approach is that we make no use of the values of random variables but only their distributions. Our method can therefore be used for causal inference for both ordinal and also categorical data, unlike additive noise models.},
	eventtitle = {Thirty-First {AAAI} Conference on Artificial Intelligence},
	booktitle = {Thirty-First {AAAI} Conference on Artificial Intelligence},
	author = {Kocaoglu, Murat and Dimakis, Alexandros G. and Vishwanath, Sriram and Hassibi, Babak},
	urldate = {2022-04-27},
	date = {2017-02-12},
	langid = {english},
}

@inproceedings{tee_towards_2016,
	title = {Towards an approximate graph entropy measure for identifying incidents in network event data},
	doi = {10.1109/NOMS.2016.7502959},
	abstract = {A key objective of monitoring networks is to identify potential service threatening outages from events within the network before service is interrupted. Identifying causal events, Root Cause Analysis ({RCA}), is an active area of research, but current approaches are vulnerable to scaling issues with high event rates. Elimination of noisy events that are not causal is key to ensuring the scalability of {RCA}. In this paper, we introduce vertex-level measures inspired by Graph Entropy and propose their suitability as a categorization metric to identify nodes that are a priori of more interest as a source of events. We consider a class of measures based on Structural, Chromatic and Von Neumann Entropy. These measures require {NP}-Hard calculations over the whole graph, an approach which obviously does not scale for large dynamic graphs that characterise modern networks. In this work we identify and justify a local measure of vertex graph entropy, which behaves in a similar fashion to global measures of entropy when summed across the whole graph. We show that such measures are correlated with nodes that generate incidents across a network from a real data set.},
	eventtitle = {{NOMS} 2016 - 2016 {IEEE}/{IFIP} Network Operations and Management Symposium},
	pages = {1049--1054},
	booktitle = {{NOMS} 2016 - 2016 {IEEE}/{IFIP} Network Operations and Management Symposium},
	author = {Tee, Phil and Parisis, George and Wakeman, Ian},
	date = {2016-04},
	note = {{ISSN}: 2374-9709},
	keywords = {Atmospheric measurements, Communication networks, Conferences, Entropy, Object recognition, Protocols},
}

@article{weilenmann_analysing_2017,
	title = {Analysing causal structures with entropy},
	volume = {473},
	url = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2017.0483},
	doi = {10.1098/rspa.2017.0483},
	abstract = {A central question for causal inference is to decide whether a set of correlations fits a given causal structure. In general, this decision problem is computationally infeasible and hence several approaches have emerged that look for certificates of compatibility. Here, we review several such approaches based on entropy. We bring together the key aspects of these entropic techniques with unified terminology, filling several gaps and establishing new connections, all illustrated with examples. We consider cases where unobserved causes are classical, quantum and post-quantum, and discuss what entropic analyses tell us about the difference. This difference has applications to quantum cryptography, where it can be crucial to eliminate the possibility of classical causes. We discuss the achievements and limitations of the entropic approach in comparison to other techniques and point out the main open problems.},
	pages = {20170483},
	number = {2207},
	journaltitle = {Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
	author = {Weilenmann, Mirjam and Colbeck, Roger},
	urldate = {2022-04-27},
	date = {2017-11-30},
	note = {Publisher: Royal Society},
	keywords = {bayesian networks, causal structures, entropy, quantum mechanics},
}

@article{wieczorek_information_2019,
	title = {Information Theoretic Causal Effect Quantification},
	volume = {21},
	rights = {http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/},
	issn = {1099-4300},
	url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/21/10/975},
	doi = {10.3390/e21100975},
	abstract = {Modelling causal relationships has become popular across various disciplines. Most common frameworks for causality are the Pearlian causal directed acyclic graphs ({DAGs}) and the Neyman-Rubin potential outcome framework. In this paper, we propose an information theoretic framework for causal effect quantification. To this end, we formulate a two step causal deduction procedure in the Pearl and Rubin frameworks and introduce its equivalent which uses information theoretic terms only. The first step of the procedure consists of ensuring no confounding or finding an adjustment set with directed information. In the second step, the causal effect is quantified. We subsequently unify previous definitions of directed information present in the literature and clarify the confusion surrounding them. We also motivate using chain graphs for directed information in time series and extend our approach to chain graphs. The proposed approach serves as a translation between causality modelling and information theory.},
	pages = {975},
	number = {10},
	journaltitle = {Entropy},
	author = {Wieczorek, Aleksander and Roth, Volker},
	urldate = {2022-04-27},
	date = {2019-10},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Number: 10
Publisher: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
	keywords = {average treatment effect, back-door criterion, causal effect, chain graph, conditional mutual information, confounding, directed information, directed mutual information, potential outcomes, time series},
}

@inproceedings{kocaoglu_applications_2020-1,
	location = {Red Hook, {NY}, {USA}},
	title = {Applications of common entropy for causal inference},
	isbn = {978-1-71382-954-6},
	series = {{NIPS}'20},
	abstract = {We study the problem of discovering the simplest latent variable that can make two observed discrete variables conditionally independent. The minimum entropy required for such a latent is known as common entropy in information theory. We extend this notion to Rényi common entropy by minimizing the Rényi entropy of the latent variable. To efficiently compute common entropy, we propose an iterative algorithm that can be used to discover the trade-off between the entropy of the latent variable and the conditional mutual information of the observed variables. We show two applications of common entropy in causal inference: First, under the assumption that there are no low-entropy mediators, it can be used to distinguish causation from spurious correlation among almost all joint distributions on simple causal graphs with two observed variables. Second, common entropy can be used to improve constraint-based methods such as {PC} or {FCI} algorithms in the small-sample regime, where these methods are known to struggle. We propose a modification to these constraint-based methods to assess if a separating set found by these algorithms are valid using common entropy. We finally evaluate our algorithms on synthetic and real data to establish their performance.},
	pages = {17514--17525},
	booktitle = {Proceedings of the 34th International Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems},
	publisher = {Curran Associates Inc.},
	author = {Kocaoglu, Murat and Shakkottai, Sanjay and Dimakis, Alexandros G. and Caramanis, Constantine and Vishwanath, Sriram},
	urldate = {2022-04-27},
	date = {2020-12-06},
}

@article{assaad_entropy-based_2021,
	title = {Entropy-based Discovery of Summary Causal Graphs in Time Series},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2105.10381},
	abstract = {We address in this study the problem of learning a summary causal graph on time series with potentially different sampling rates. To do so, we first propose a new temporal mutual information measure defined on a window-based representation of time series. We then show how this measure relates to an entropy reduction principle that can be seen as a special case of the Probabilistic Raising Principle. We finally combine these two ingredients in a {PC}-like algorithm to construct the summary causal graph. This algorithm is evaluated on several datasets that shows both its efficacy and efficiency.},
	journaltitle = {{arXiv}:2105.10381 [cs]},
	author = {Assaad, Karim and Devijver, Emilie and Gaussier, Eric and Ait-Bachir, Ali},
	urldate = {2022-04-27},
	date = {2021-05-21},
	eprinttype = {arxiv},
	eprint = {2105.10381},
	keywords = {Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Computer Science - Machine Learning},
}

@article{bundgaard_effectiveness_2021,
	title = {Effectiveness of Adding a Mask Recommendation to Other Public Health Measures to Prevent {SARS}-{CoV}-2 Infection in Danish Mask Wearers},
	volume = {174},
	issn = {0003-4819},
	url = {https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/m20-6817},
	doi = {10.7326/M20-6817},
	pages = {335--343},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Annals of Internal Medicine},
	shortjournal = {Ann Intern Med},
	author = {Bundgaard, Henning and Bundgaard, Johan Skov and Raaschou-Pedersen, Daniel Emil Tadeusz and von Buchwald, Christian and Todsen, Tobias and Norsk, Jakob Boesgaard and Pries-Heje, Mia M. and Vissing, Christoffer Rasmus and Nielsen, Pernille B. and Winsløw, Ulrik C. and Fogh, Kamille and Hasselbalch, Rasmus and Kristensen, Jonas H. and Ringgaard, Anna and Porsborg Andersen, Mikkel and Goecke, Nicole Bakkegård and Trebbien, Ramona and Skovgaard, Kerstin and Benfield, Thomas and Ullum, Henrik and Torp-Pedersen, Christian and Iversen, Kasper},
	urldate = {2022-04-27},
	date = {2021-03-16},
	note = {Publisher: American College of Physicians},
}

@article{steiger_causal_2021,
	title = {Causal graph analysis of {COVID}-19 observational data in German districts reveals effects of determining factors on reported case numbers},
	volume = {16},
	issn = {1932-6203},
	url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0237277},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0237277},
	abstract = {Several determinants are suspected to be causal drivers for new cases of {COVID}-19 infection. Correcting for possible confounders, we estimated the effects of the most prominent determining factors on reported case numbers. To this end, we used a directed acyclic graph ({DAG}) as a graphical representation of the hypothesized causal effects of the determinants on new reported cases of {COVID}-19. Based on this, we computed valid adjustment sets of the possible confounding factors. We collected data for Germany from publicly available sources (e.g. Robert Koch Institute, Germany’s National Meteorological Service, Google) for 401 German districts over the period of 15 February to 8 July 2020, and estimated total causal effects based on our {DAG} analysis by negative binomial regression. Our analysis revealed favorable effects of increasing temperature, increased public mobility for essential shopping (grocery and pharmacy) or within residential areas, and awareness measured by {COVID}-19 burden, all of them reducing the outcome of newly reported {COVID}-19 cases. Conversely, we saw adverse effects leading to an increase in new {COVID}-19 cases for public mobility in retail and recreational areas or workplaces, awareness measured by searches for “corona” in Google, higher rainfall, and some socio-demographic factors. Non-pharmaceutical interventions were found to be effective in reducing case numbers. This comprehensive causal graph analysis of a variety of determinants affecting {COVID}-19 progression gives strong evidence for the driving forces of mobility, public awareness, and temperature, whose implications need to be taken into account for future decisions regarding pandemic management.},
	pages = {e0237277},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	shortjournal = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	author = {Steiger, Edgar and Mussgnug, Tobias and Kroll, Lars Eric},
	urldate = {2022-04-27},
	date = {2021-05-27},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Public Library of Science},
	keywords = {{COVID} 19, Directed acyclic graphs, Germany, Pandemics, Population density, Recreation, Respiratory infections, {SARS} {CoV} 2},
}

@article{babino_masks_2021,
	title = {Masks and distancing during {COVID}-19: a causal framework for imputing value to public-health interventions},
	volume = {11},
	rights = {2021 The Author(s)},
	issn = {2045-2322},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-84679-8},
	doi = {10.1038/s41598-021-84679-8},
	shorttitle = {Masks and distancing during {COVID}-19},
	abstract = {During the {COVID}-19 pandemic, the scientific community developed predictive models to evaluate potential governmental interventions. However, the analysis of the effects these interventions had is less advanced. Here, we propose a data-driven framework to assess these effects retrospectively. We use a regularized regression to find a parsimonious model that fits the data with the least changes in the \$\$R\_t\$\$parameter. Then, we postulate each jump in \$\$R\_t\$\$as the effect of an intervention. Following the do-operator prescriptions, we simulate the counterfactual case by forcing \$\$R\_t\$\$to stay at the pre-jump value. We then attribute a value to the intervention from the difference between true evolution and simulated counterfactual. We show that the recommendation to use facemasks for all activities would reduce the number of cases by 200,000 (\$\$95{\textbackslash}\%\$\${CI} 190,000–210,000) in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New York State. The framework presented here might be used in any case where cause and effects are sparse in time.},
	pages = {5183},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Scientific Reports},
	shortjournal = {Sci Rep},
	author = {Babino, Andres and Magnasco, Marcelo O.},
	urldate = {2022-04-27},
	date = {2021-03-04},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Number: 1
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Data processing, Machine learning},
}

@article{chernozhukov_causal_2021,
	title = {Causal impact of masks, policies, behavior on early covid-19 pandemic in the U.S.},
	volume = {220},
	issn = {0304-4076},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407620303468},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.09.003},
	series = {Pandemic Econometrics},
	abstract = {The paper evaluates the dynamic impact of various policies adopted by {US} states on the growth rates of confirmed Covid-19 cases and deaths as well as social distancing behavior measured by Google Mobility Reports, where we take into consideration people’s voluntarily behavioral response to new information of transmission risks in a causal structural model framework. Our analysis finds that both policies and information on transmission risks are important determinants of Covid-19 cases and deaths and shows that a change in policies explains a large fraction of observed changes in social distancing behavior. Our main counterfactual experiments suggest that nationally mandating face masks for employees early in the pandemic could have reduced the weekly growth rate of cases and deaths by more than 10 percentage points in late April and could have led to as much as 19 to 47 percent less deaths nationally by the end of May, which roughly translates into 19 to 47 thousand saved lives. We also find that, without stay-at-home orders, cases would have been larger by 6 to 63 percent and without business closures, cases would have been larger by 17 to 78 percent. We find considerable uncertainty over the effects of school closures due to lack of cross-sectional variation; we could not robustly rule out either large or small effects. Overall, substantial declines in growth rates are attributable to private behavioral response, but policies played an important role as well. We also carry out sensitivity analyses to find neighborhoods of the models under which the results hold robustly: the results on mask policies appear to be much more robust than the results on business closures and stay-at-home orders. Finally, we stress that our study is observational and therefore should be interpreted with great caution. From a completely agnostic point of view, our findings uncover predictive effects (association) of observed policies and behavioral changes on future health outcomes, controlling for informational and other confounding variables.},
	pages = {23--62},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Econometrics},
	shortjournal = {Journal of Econometrics},
	author = {Chernozhukov, Victor and Kasahara, Hiroyuki and Schrimpf, Paul},
	urldate = {2022-04-27},
	date = {2021-01-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Behavior, Causal impact, Covid-19, Masks, Policies},
}

@article{howard_evidence_2021,
	title = {An evidence review of face masks against {COVID}-19},
	volume = {118},
	url = {https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2014564118},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.2014564118},
	pages = {e2014564118},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Howard, Jeremy and Huang, Austin and Li, Zhiyuan and Tufekci, Zeynep and Zdimal, Vladimir and van der Westhuizen, Helene-Mari and von Delft, Arne and Price, Amy and Fridman, Lex and Tang, Lei-Han and Tang, Viola and Watson, Gregory L. and Bax, Christina E. and Shaikh, Reshama and Questier, Frederik and Hernandez, Danny and Chu, Larry F. and Ramirez, Christina M. and Rimoin, Anne W.},
	urldate = {2022-04-27},
	date = {2021-01-26},
	note = {Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
}

@article{andrejko_effectiveness_2022,
	title = {Effectiveness of Face Mask or Respirator Use in Indoor Public Settings for Prevention of {SARS}-{CoV}-2 Infection — California, February–December 2021},
	volume = {71},
	issn = {0149-21951545-861X},
	url = {https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7106e1.htm},
	doi = {10.15585/mmwr.mm7106e1},
	abstract = {This report describes face mask or respirator effectiveness in helping protect against {COVID}-19 infection.},
	journaltitle = {{MMWR}. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report},
	shortjournal = {{MMWR} Morb Mortal Wkly Rep},
	author = {Andrejko, Kristin L.},
	urldate = {2022-04-27},
	date = {2022},
	langid = {english},
}

@online{ghanem_algerias_2020,
	title = {Algeria’s Borderlands: A Country Unto Themselves},
	url = {https://carnegie-mec.org/2020/05/27/algeria-s-borderlands-country-unto-themselves-pub-81881},
	shorttitle = {Algeria’s Borderlands},
	abstract = {Smuggling goods across the border between Algeria and Tunisia has created a parallel economy for marginalized border populations. Law enforcement and smugglers alike must navigate these gray zones in state authority.},
	titleaddon = {Carnegie Middle East Center},
	author = {Ghanem, Dalia},
	urldate = {2022-04-27},
	date = {2020-07},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{benstead_why_2014,
	title = {Why some Arabs don’t want democracy},
	issn = {0190-8286},
	url = {https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/09/30/why-some-arabs-dont-want-democracy/},
	abstract = {While studies show Arab support for democracy, many citizens don't see it suitable for their country.},
	journaltitle = {Washington Post},
	author = {Benstead, Lindsay},
	urldate = {2022-04-26},
	date = {2014-09-30},
	langid = {american},
}

@report{achy_algeria_2012,
	title = {Algeria Avoids the Arab Spring?},
	url = {https://carnegie-mec.org/2012/05/31/algeria-avoids-arab-spring-pub-48277},
	abstract = {Islamists did not fare well in the Algerian parliamentary elections, despite the rise of Islamist parties in Egypt and Tunisia, because the main Islamist party is still banned and Algerians are scarred by the memories of the country’s civil war.},
	institution = {Carnegie Middle East Center},
	author = {Achy, Lahcen},
	urldate = {2022-04-18},
	date = {2012-05-31},
	langid = {english},
}

@report{jewell_fair_2015,
	title = {Fair Taxation in the Middle East and North Africa},
	url = {https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2015/sdn1516.pdf},
	institution = {International Monetary Fund},
	type = {Staff Discussion Notes},
	author = {Jewell, Andrew and Mansour, Mario and Mitra, Pritha and Sdralevich, Carlo},
	urldate = {2022-04-20},
	date = {2015-09},
}

@article{diwan_understanding_2013,
	title = {Understanding Revolution in the Middle East: The Central Role of the Middle Class},
	volume = {5},
	issn = {1793-8120},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793812013500041},
	doi = {10.1142/S1793812013500041},
	shorttitle = {Understanding Revolution in the Middle East},
	abstract = {The paper presents the outlines of a coherent, structural, long term account of the socio-economic and political evolution of the Arab republics that can explain both the persistence of autocracy until 2011, and the its eventual collapse, in a way that is empirically verifiable. I argue that the changing interests of the middle class would have to be a central aspect of a coherent story, on accounts of both distributional and modernization considerations, and that the ongoing transformation can be best understood in terms of their defection from the autocratic order to a new democratic order, which is still in formation. I then review what the evidence says in two central parts of the emerging narrative, for the case of Egypt: first, by looking directly at changes in opinion and asking whether these are consistent with the predictions of the theory. And second, by examining the corporate sector before and during the uprisings of 2011 in order to understand better the performance of “crony capitalism”, and to evaluate whether it may have affected the incentives of the middle class to defect.},
	pages = {1350004--1--1350004--30},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Middle East Development Journal},
	author = {Diwan, Ishac},
	urldate = {2022-04-26},
	date = {2013-01-01},
	note = {Publisher: Routledge
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793812013500041},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, crony capitalism, distribution, middle class, modernization, world value survey, youth bulge},
}

@article{brooks_oil_2016,
	title = {Oil and Democracy: Endogenous Natural Resources and the Political “Resource Curse”},
	volume = {70},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/oil-and-democracy-endogenous-natural-resources-and-the-political-resource-curse/1770E911751F65F42C8BE1BAF7BFC491},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818316000072},
	shorttitle = {Oil and Democracy},
	abstract = {By the end of the twentieth century, a scholarly consensus emerged around the idea that oil fuels authoritarianism and slow growth. The natural abundance once thought to be a blessing was unconditionally, and then later only conditionally, a curse for political and economic development. We re-examine the relationship between oil wealth and political regimes, challenging the conventional wisdom that such natural resource rents lead to authoritarian outcomes. We contend that most efforts to examine the causal linkages between natural resource abundance and political regime have been complicated by the likelihood that both democracy and oil revenue are endogenous to the industrialization processes itself, particularly in its developmentalist form. Our quantitative results, based on an analysis of global data from 1970 to 2006, show that both resource endogeneity and several mechanisms of intraregional regime diffusion are powerful determinants of democratic outcomes. Qualitative evidence from the history of industrialization in Latin America yields support for our proposed causal claim. Oil wealth is not necessarily a curse and may even be a blessing with respect to democratic development.},
	pages = {279--311},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {International Organization},
	author = {Brooks, Sarah M. and Kurtz, Marcus J.},
	urldate = {2022-04-20},
	date = {2016},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
}

@article{houle_two-step_2018,
	title = {A two-step theory and test of the oil curse: the conditional effect of oil on democratization},
	volume = {25},
	issn = {1351-0347},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2017.1366449},
	doi = {10.1080/13510347.2017.1366449},
	shorttitle = {A two-step theory and test of the oil curse},
	abstract = {Does oil impede democratization? This article posits that in order to understand the effect of oil on democratization one has to decompose the transition process into two steps: (1) the ending of the authoritarian regime, which initiates the process; and (2) the subsequent establishment of a democracy rather than an autocracy. I argue that oil has different effects on the two phases of the transition process: while oil has contradictory effects on the likelihood that an authoritarian regime fails, it diminishes the likelihood of the establishment of democracy following the failure. Oil’s negative effect is conditional on the breakdown of the authoritarian regime, which itself is unaffected by oil. That is, although oil does not initiate the transition process, it does influence its outcome. Using data on 118 autocracies, I find evidence consistent with this hypothesis.},
	pages = {404--421},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Democratization},
	author = {Houle, Christian},
	urldate = {2022-04-20},
	date = {2018-04-03},
	note = {Publisher: Routledge
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2017.1366449},
	keywords = {Oil, authoritarian stability, regime survival, regime transition, resource curse},
}

@article{grewal_why_2021,
	title = {Why Sudan Succeeded Where Algeria Failed},
	volume = {32},
	issn = {1086-3214},
	url = {https://muse.jhu.edu/article/815940},
	doi = {10.1353/jod.2021.0055},
	abstract = {In April 2019, mass uprisings in Algeria and Sudan toppled their longtime dictators. Yet the two countries’ paths soon diverged. Protesters in Sudan secured a pact with the regime’s remnants and embarked on a democratic transition. Protesters in Algeria, however, rallied until May 2021 but could not compel a regime transition. This divergence stems from: 1) the level of organization among protesters; 2) the degree of unity of the regime’s security forces; and 3) the extent of international mediation. A comparison of Algeria and Sudan points to the importance of pacted transitions and sheds new light on the factors that facilitate such pacts.},
	pages = {102--114},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Democracy},
	author = {Grewal, Sharan},
	urldate = {2022-04-26},
	date = {2021},
	note = {Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press},
}

@article{ketchley_trends_2020,
	title = {{TRENDS}: Fridays of Revolution: Focal Days and Mass Protest in Egypt and Tunisia},
	volume = {73},
	issn = {1065-9129},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912919893463},
	doi = {10.1177/1065912919893463},
	shorttitle = {{TRENDS}},
	abstract = {Focal days of protest are increasingly common to episodes of revolutionary mobilization. This paper explores the significance of focal days in patterning sustained protest in Egypt and Tunisia from 2011 to 2012. In Egypt, resource-poor activists exploited the confluence of worshippers on Fridays to mobilize mass transitory protest. This reliance on ritualized action hindered cross-sectoral coordination and meant mass protest often failed to inflict a direct economic cost. In Tunisia, there was no focal day of protest, in large part due to the coordinating hand of trade unions. In consequence, mass protest was more likely to span multiple sites, sectors, and tactics. These results suggest that oppositions can sustain mass mobilization even absent organizational capacity, but a reliance on a focal day limits the potential of protest over a political transition. Supplementary analyses point to the applicability of our findings to a number of other Arab Spring countries.},
	pages = {308--324},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Political Research Quarterly},
	shortjournal = {Political Research Quarterly},
	author = {Ketchley, Neil and Barrie, Christopher},
	urldate = {2022-04-26},
	date = {2020-06-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Inc},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, democratization, focal days, protest},
}

@article{ketchley_unpopular_2021,
	title = {Unpopular Protest: Mass Mobilization and Attitudes to Democracy in Post-Mubarak Egypt},
	volume = {83},
	issn = {0022-3816},
	url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/709298},
	doi = {10.1086/709298},
	shorttitle = {Unpopular Protest},
	abstract = {Political science has long debated the significance of protest during a democratic transition, but attention has been largely confined to its impact on elite support for democracy. Contributing to scholarship on the attitudinal consequences of mobilization, we examine how protest shaped popular perceptions of democracy during the post-Mubarak transition in Egypt. We do this by matching wave 2 of the Arab Barometer survey with georeferenced protest events reported in Arabic-language newspapers. Our results show that Egyptians came to hold less favorable attitudes to democracy following sustained protest in their district. We find that this relationship was principally driven by longer-lasting, static street protests that targeted public space. Qualitative case details illustrate how such tactics could disrupt everyday life and affect livelihoods. These findings highlight one way in which popular support for democracy can be eroded during a transition.},
	pages = {291--305},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of Politics},
	author = {Ketchley, Neil and El-Rayyes, Thoraya},
	urldate = {2022-04-26},
	date = {2021-01},
	note = {Publisher: The University of Chicago Press},
}

@article{abedini_polarization_2022,
	title = {Polarization, {COVID}-19, and Authoritarian Consolidation in Iran},
	journaltitle = {{POMEPS} {COVID}-19 in {MENA}: 2 Years Later},
	author = {Abedini, Vahid},
	date = {2022-04},
}

@article{abouzzohour_amplification_2022,
	title = {The Amplification of Authoritarianism in the Middle East and North Africa in the Age of Covid-19},
	journaltitle = {{POMEPS} {COVID}-19 in {MENA}: 2 Years Later},
	author = {Abouzzohour, Yasmina},
	date = {2022-04},
}

@article{koehler_complying_2022,
	title = {Complying with Containment? Political Trust and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions ({NPIs}) in Turkey},
	journaltitle = {{POMEPS} {COVID}-19 in {MENA}: 2 Years Later},
	author = {Koehler, Kevin and Schulhofer-Wohl, Jonah},
	date = {2022-04},
}

@report{protzko_invariance_2022,
	title = {Invariance: What Does Measurement Invariance Allow us to Claim?},
	url = {https://psyarxiv.com/r8yka/},
	shorttitle = {Invariance},
	abstract = {Measurement in Psychology is a complicated process involving numerous theoretical and empirical steps. Ensuring our measures are operating the same way in different groups of people is a further step referred to as Measurement Invariance testing. Measurement Invariance occurs when the factor loadings and item intercepts or thresholds of a scale operate similarly for people at the same level of the latent variable in different populations. This is commonly extended to mean the scale is measuring the same thing in those populations. Here we test the assumption of extending measurement invariance to meaning a scale is ‘measuring the same thing’ by randomly assigning American adults (N=1500) to fill out scales assessing either a coherent factor or a nonsense factor (i.e. measuring nothing). We find a nonsense scale with items measuring nothing (e.g. “I am always looking to find gavagai”) shows strong measurement invariance with a sensical scale. Furthermore, the nonsense scale shows high reliability (ω = .91) and a significant correlation with another construct (r = .25, p {\textless} .001, .37 to .14). Thus, we show that measurement invariance can occur without measurement. The implications of this for understanding psychological measurement are briefly discussed.},
	institution = {{PsyArXiv}},
	author = {Protzko, John},
	urldate = {2022-04-25},
	date = {2022-04-18},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.31234/osf.io/r8yka},
	note = {type: article},
	keywords = {Measurement, Measurement Invaraince, Meta-science, Psychometrics, Quantitative Methods, Social and Behavioral Sciences},
}

@report{protzko_invariance_2022-1,
	title = {Invariance: What Does Measurement Invariance Allow us to Claim?},
	url = {https://psyarxiv.com/r8yka/},
	shorttitle = {Invariance},
	abstract = {Measurement in Psychology is a complicated process involving numerous theoretical and empirical steps. Ensuring our measures are operating the same way in different groups of people is a further step referred to as Measurement Invariance testing. Measurement Invariance occurs when the factor loadings and item intercepts or thresholds of a scale operate similarly for people at the same level of the latent variable in different populations. This is commonly extended to mean the scale is measuring the same thing in those populations. Here we test the assumption of extending measurement invariance to meaning a scale is ‘measuring the same thing’ by randomly assigning American adults (N=1500) to fill out scales assessing either a coherent factor or a nonsense factor (i.e. measuring nothing). We find a nonsense scale with items measuring nothing (e.g. “I am always looking to find gavagai”) shows strong measurement invariance with a sensical scale. Furthermore, the nonsense scale shows high reliability (ω = .91) and a significant correlation with another construct (r = .25, p {\textless} .001, .37 to .14). Thus, we show that measurement invariance can occur without measurement. The implications of this for understanding psychological measurement are briefly discussed.},
	institution = {{PsyArXiv}},
	author = {Protzko, John},
	urldate = {2022-04-25},
	date = {2022-04-18},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.31234/osf.io/r8yka},
	note = {type: article},
	keywords = {Measurement, Measurement Invaraince, Meta-science, Psychometrics, Quantitative Methods, Social and Behavioral Sciences},
}

@article{martinez_how_2022,
	title = {How Much Should We Trust the Dictator’s {GDP} Growth Estimates?},
	issn = {0022-3808},
	url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/720458},
	doi = {10.1086/720458},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Political Economy},
	author = {Martinez, Luis  Roberto},
	urldate = {2022-04-21},
	date = {2022-04-19},
	note = {Publisher: The University of Chicago Press},
}

@book{iversen_big_2022,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {Big Data and the Welfare State: How the Information Revolution Threatens Social Solidarity},
	isbn = {978-1-00-915136-8},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/big-data-and-the-welfare-state/340936CE478BD6264DE77D9123357D4A},
	series = {Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics},
	shorttitle = {Big Data and the Welfare State},
	abstract = {A core principle of the welfare state is that everyone pays taxes or contributions in exchange for universal insurance against social risks such as sickness, old age, unemployment, and plain bad luck. This solidarity principle assumes that everyone is a member of a single national insurance pool, and it is commonly explained by poor and asymmetric information, which undermines markets and creates the perception that we are all in the same boat. Living in the midst of an information revolution, this is no longer a satisfactory approach. This book explores, theoretically and empirically, the consequences of 'big data' for the politics of social protection. Torben Iversen and Philipp Rehm argue that more and better data polarize preferences over public insurance and often segment social insurance into smaller, more homogenous, and less redistributive pools, using cases studies of health and unemployment insurance and statistical analyses of life insurance, credit markets, and public opinion.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Iversen, Torben and Rehm, Philipp},
	urldate = {2022-04-19},
	date = {2022},
}

@article{noauthor_tunisia_nodate,
	title = {Tunisia among countries seeing major economic consequences from war in Ukraine},
	issn = {0190-8286},
	url = {https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/04/14/ukraine-war-economic-impact-tunisia/},
	abstract = {Soaring prices for imports of wheat, fuel and fertilizer threaten an economic and political toll.},
	journaltitle = {Washington Post},
	urldate = {2022-04-19},
	langid = {american},
}

@article{zoubir_algeria_2019,
	title = {Algeria After the Arab Spring},
	issn = {0015-7120},
	url = {https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/algeria/2016-02-09/algeria-after-arab-spring},
	abstract = {Five years after the Arab Spring, Algeria, Africa’s biggest country, has maintained some semblance of stability. But with oil prices falling and Bouteflika in poor health, that may be about to change. In other words, Algeria could soon be facing an Arab Spring of its own.},
	author = {Zoubir, Yahia H.},
	urldate = {2022-04-18},
	date = {2019-08-13},
	langid = {american},
}

@article{khan_no_2014,
	title = {No Arab Spring for Algeria},
	pages = {8},
	journaltitle = {Atlantic Council},
	author = {Khan, Mohsin and Mezran, Karim},
	date = {2014-05},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{izadi_state_2022,
	title = {State Security or Exploitation: A Theory of Military Involvement in the Economy},
	issn = {0022-0027},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/00220027211070574},
	doi = {10.1177/00220027211070574},
	shorttitle = {State Security or Exploitation},
	abstract = {Why does the military in some countries get involved in the economy by running profit-making enterprises and what leads governments to permit such involvement? Running household appliance factories, transportation agencies, banks, hotels, etc., are indeed unrelated to national security and are far removed from the regular roles assigned to militaries. Such involvement has further implications for both politics and the economy. I argue that the process of military involvement in the economy functions as a survival strategy for leaders and a profit-making scheme for the military. Using original cross-national data on the emergence of military involvement in the economy, this research demonstrates that militaries are more likely to get involved in the economy when the military’s institutional interests are at risk and when the government has to rely on the military to maintain power. Leaders allow the military to benefit financially through economic activities in order to stay in power.},
	pages = {00220027211070574},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	shortjournal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Izadi, Roya},
	urldate = {2022-04-15},
	date = {2022-02-23},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Inc},
	keywords = {civil–military relations, conflict, military involvement in the economy},
}

@article{ulziisukh_behind_2022,
	title = {Behind the Political Connections Under Emerging Democracies},
	issn = {1740-8776, 1740-8784},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/management-and-organization-review/article/behind-the-political-connections-under-emerging-democracies/58C93B10D10381569890109E73F05445},
	doi = {10.1017/mor.2021.74},
	abstract = {In light of inconclusive findings on the effect of political connections, this study explores conditions that affect the effectiveness of political connections on firm performance in democratic systems. First, using a resource dependence rationale, this study stresses the importance of variation in political connections and classifies direct and indirect political connections based on sources of power and the mechanisms for developing connections. Second, this study recognizes that influencing political outcomes is an entire political process in which political power matters. Furthermore, as power is central to the resource dependence rationale unlike exchange in transaction cost economics, this study explores how the effectiveness of political connections is contingent on the dynamics of de jure political power. We find that the effect of direct political connections is susceptible to changes in de jure political power due to its dyadic relationship with de jure power, while indirect political connections are more robust to such changes due to their connections with informal networks holding de facto political power. Further, the positive effects of political connections on firm performance are mediated by operational capability.
, 
由于目前对政治联系对企业绩效的研究结果莫衷一是，本文试图借助新兴民主体制的独特情境，来探讨不同类型的政治联系对企业绩效的影响及其边界条件。首先，作者基于资源依赖理论分析了权力的最终来源及产生机制，并在此基础上区分了直接政治联系和间接政治联系。本研究发现政治联系对于企业绩效的影响取决于政治权力发挥作用的过程，并发现政治联系的作用随着执政党的更替而动态变化。进一步的，政治联系能通过提高企业的运作能力促进其绩效。然而，在执政党更替的动态环境中，与直接政治联系相比，间接政治联系通过与各个执政党成员建立非正式的关系，对企业绩效的影响更为显著。},
	pages = {1--31},
	journaltitle = {Management and Organization Review},
	author = {Ulziisukh, Selenge and Wei, Zelong},
	urldate = {2022-04-11},
	date = {2022-04-06},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
	keywords = {boundary condition, emerging democracies, informal networks, political connection, resource dependence theory, 政治联系, 新兴民主, 资源依赖理论, 边界条件, 非正式网络},
}

@online{noauthor_inbox_nodate,
	title = {Inbox - rmk7@nyu.edu - New York University Mail},
	url = {https://mail.google.com/mail/u/1/#inbox},
	urldate = {2022-04-04},
}

@article{husted_honor_1994,
	title = {Honor among Thieves: A Transaction-Cost Interpretation of Corruption in Third World Countries},
	volume = {4},
	issn = {1052-150X},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/3857556},
	doi = {10.2307/3857556},
	shorttitle = {Honor among Thieves},
	abstract = {This paper views corruption as a form of contracting amenable to analysis from the viewpoint of transaction-cost economics. Concepts such as transaction, bounded rationality, opportunism, and asset specificity are shown to apply to cases of corruption. Both market and parochial corruption are hypothesized to vary in accordance with changes in the specificity of assets invested to support the corruption transaction. Evidence from a number of different studies tends to support the hypothesized relation. The implications of the transaction-cost perspective are developed for policy makers and directions for future research are suggested.},
	pages = {17--27},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Business Ethics Quarterly},
	author = {Husted, Bryan W.},
	urldate = {2022-03-31},
	date = {1994},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
}

@article{shleifer_corruption_1993,
	title = {Corruption},
	volume = {108},
	issn = {0033-5533},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/108/3/599/1881822},
	doi = {10.2307/2118402},
	abstract = {Abstract. This paper presents two propositions about corruption. First, the structure of government institutions and of the political process are very important},
	pages = {599--617},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	shortjournal = {Q J Econ},
	author = {Shleifer, Andrei and Vishny, Robert W.},
	urldate = {2022-03-31},
	date = {1993-08-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Oxford Academic},
}

@article{meon_does_2005,
	title = {Does corruption grease or sand the wheels of growth?},
	volume = {122},
	issn = {1573-7101},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-005-3988-0},
	doi = {10.1007/s11127-005-3988-0},
	abstract = {This paper assesses the relationship between the impact of corruption on growth and investment and the quality of governance in a sample of 63 to 71 countries between 1970 and 1998. Like previous studies, we find a negative effect of corruption on both growth and investment. Unlike previous studies, we find that corruption has a negative impact on growth independently from its impact on investment. These impacts are, however, different depending on the quality of governance. They tend to worsen when indicators of the quality of governance deteriorate. This supports the “sand the wheels” view on corruption and contradicts the “grease the wheels” view, which postulates that corruption may help compensate bad governance.},
	pages = {69--97},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Public Choice},
	shortjournal = {Public Choice},
	author = {Méon, Pierre-Guillaume and Sekkat, Khalid},
	urldate = {2022-03-30},
	date = {2005-01-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{beck_comparison_1986,
	title = {A comparison of bribery and bidding in thin markets},
	volume = {20},
	issn = {0165-1765},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0165176586900686},
	doi = {10.1016/0165-1765(86)90068-6},
	abstract = {This paper compares bribery to competitive bidding in a government purchasing context. While competitive bidding is one method of procurement, bribery is a common alternative in many Third World countries. Although bribery is often considered to be the ethical antithesis of competitive bidding, the analysis shows there is a fundamental isomorphism between bribery and competitive bidding on the supply side of the transaction.},
	pages = {1--5},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Economics Letters},
	shortjournal = {Economics Letters},
	author = {Beck, Paul J. and Maher, Michael W.},
	urldate = {2022-03-30},
	date = {1986-01-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{barkay_weights_2020,
	title = {Weights and methodology brief for the {COVID}-19 symptom survey by University of Maryland and Carnegie Mellon University, in partnership with Facebook},
	journaltitle = {{arXiv} preprint {arXiv}:2009.14675},
	author = {Barkay, Neta and Cobb, Curtiss and Eilat, Roee and Galili, Tal and Haimovich, Daniel and {LaRocca}, Sarah and Morris, Katherine and Sarig, Tal},
	date = {2020},
}

@article{alijla_we_2021,
	title = {‘We are in a Battle with the Virus’: Hamas, Hezbollah, and covid-19},
	volume = {-1},
	issn = {1876-3367, 1876-3375},
	url = {https://brill.com/view/journals/melg/aop/article-10.1163-18763375-14010001/article-10.1163-18763375-14010001.xml},
	doi = {10.1163/18763375-14010001},
	shorttitle = {‘We are in a Battle with the Virus’},
	abstract = {Abstract This article examines the response of two non-state actors, Hezbollah and Hamas, to the coronavirus pandemic in Lebanon and Palestine. It studies the patterns of governance, practicalities, leadership, and legitimacy both parties deployed during the Covid-19 crisis. It argues that non-state actors usually imitate states by trying to acquire legitimacy in such cases. The coronavirus was sectarianised, politicised, and used to gain external and local legitimacy by Hamas and Hezbollah, respectively. The success of non-state actors in managing the coronavirus pandemic was rooted in two factors: the existence of a pre-existing and well-developed welfare system, and the party’s capacity to mobilise its constituencies mainly through charismatic leadership. The paper is based on primary sources, including interviews, news articles, and social media.},
	pages = {1--13},
	issue = {aop},
	journaltitle = {Middle East Law and Governance},
	author = {Alijla, Abdalhadi},
	urldate = {2022-03-24},
	date = {2021-12-13},
	note = {Publisher: Brill},
	keywords = {Covid-19, Hamas, Hezbollah, Middle East, non-state actors, public health},
}

@article{harb_mapping_2021,
	title = {Mapping Covid-19 Governance in Lebanon: Territories of Sectarianism and Solidarity},
	volume = {-1},
	issn = {1876-3367, 1876-3375},
	url = {https://brill.com/view/journals/melg/aop/article-10.1163-18763375-14011293/article-10.1163-18763375-14011293.xml},
	doi = {10.1163/18763375-14011293},
	shorttitle = {Mapping Covid-19 Governance in Lebanon},
	abstract = {Abstract Many states, including Lebanon, have used the Covid-19 pandemic as an occasion to reassert their power and to consolidate their policing and repressive apparatuses. We are far from a seamless scenario, however. Rather than a mere reproduction of the sectarian political system, we argue in this paper that the governance of the pandemic in Lebanon reveals tensions between powerful political parties, weakened public agencies, as well as multiple solidarity groups with diverging aspirations, colliding over the imagined future of the country. Using various sources of information (broadcast, print and online news media, social media), we build a database of the types of actors and the categories of actions across locations, and analyze the territorial and political variations of the governance of the pandemic. The paper demonstrates that the Covid-19 response in Lebanon operates through ongoing negotiations over the national territory in which timid yet visible aspirations for a non-sectarian country confront sectarian territorialities through back-and-forth cycles.},
	pages = {1--20},
	issue = {aop},
	journaltitle = {Middle East Law and Governance},
	author = {Harb, Mona and Gharbieh, Ahmad and Fawaz, Mona and Dayekh, Luna},
	urldate = {2022-03-24},
	date = {2021-10-26},
	note = {Publisher: Brill},
	keywords = {Covid-19, Lebanon, governance, mapping, pandemic, sectarianism, solidarity, territories},
}

@article{koehler_governing_2021,
	title = {Governing the covid-19 Pandemic in the Middle East and North Africa: Containment Measures as a Public Good},
	volume = {-1},
	issn = {1876-3367, 1876-3375},
	url = {https://brill.com/view/journals/melg/aop/article-10.1163-18763375-13040003/article-10.1163-18763375-13040003.xml},
	doi = {10.1163/18763375-13040003},
	shorttitle = {Governing the covid-19 Pandemic in the Middle East and North Africa},
	abstract = {Abstract What determined how governments in the Middle East and North Africa reacted to the global covid-19 pandemic? We develop a theoretical argument based on the political costs of different policy options and assess its empirical relevance. Distinguishing between the immediate costs associated with decisive action and the potential costs of uncontrolled spread that are likely to accrue over the long term, we argue that leaders who have fewer incentives to provide public goods to stay in power will lock down later than their more constrained counterparts. We find empirical support for this argument in statistical analyses covering the 1 January – 30 November 2020 period using the Oxford covid-19 Government Response Tracker ({OxCGRT}) and our own original data on the timing of mosque closures and strict lockdowns across the region. We also illustrate our argument with a description of the response to the pandemic in Egypt.},
	pages = {1--21},
	issue = {aop},
	journaltitle = {Middle East Law and Governance},
	author = {Koehler, Kevin and Schulhofer-Wohl, Jonah},
	urldate = {2022-03-24},
	date = {2021-12-10},
	note = {Publisher: Brill},
	keywords = {containment, coronavirus, covid-19, leader survival, lockdowns, mena, non-pharmaceutical interventions, political regime type, public health, winning coalition size},
}

@article{sibley_effects_2020,
	title = {Effects of the {COVID}-19 pandemic and nationwide lockdown on trust, attitudes toward government, and well-being.},
	volume = {75},
	pages = {618},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {American Psychologist},
	author = {Sibley, Chris G. and Greaves, Lara M. and Satherley, Nicole and Wilson, Marc S. and Overall, Nickola C. and Lee, Carol {HJ} and Milojev, Petar and Bulbulia, Joseph and Osborne, Danny and Milfont, Taciano L.},
	date = {2020},
	note = {Publisher: American Psychological Association},
}

@article{daar_coronavirus_2020,
	title = {Coronavirus Disease 2019 ({COVID}-19): Potential implications for weak health systems and conflict zones in the Middle East and North Africa region},
	volume = {35},
	issn = {1099-1751},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/hpm.2982},
	doi = {10.1002/hpm.2982},
	shorttitle = {Coronavirus Disease 2019 ({COVID}-19)},
	abstract = {This short communication recognizes the underbelly of weak and conflict-prone health systems in the Middle East and North Africa region in the wake of {COVID}-19 pandemic. The communication highlights how the lack of basic resources, absence of a well-functioning health system and the dearth of well-coordinated communication channels, can bode ill for the successful fight against {COVID}-19. The article elucidates {COVID}-19 potential health, social, and economic implications for such countries. The communication cautions that if {COVID}-19 is left to incubate and makes a home in weak systems, it will have a much better chance of mutating and coming back to infect many people globally. The communication calls on the international institutions in collaboration with developed nations to be prepared to probe up health systems in weak and conflict-prone health systems with much-needed resources in order to nip {COVID}-19 in the bud.},
	pages = {1240--1245},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {The International Journal of Health Planning and Management},
	author = {Da'ar, Omar B. and Haji, Mohamed and Jradi, Hoda},
	urldate = {2022-03-24},
	date = {2020},
	langid = {english},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/hpm.2982},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, {COVID}-19 implications, {WHO} {MENA} region, Weak health systems, conflict zones},
}

@article{wehbe_covid-19_2021,
	title = {{COVID}-19 in the Middle East and North Africa region: an urgent call for reliable, disaggregated and openly shared data},
	volume = {6},
	rights = {© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under {CC} {BY}. Published by {BMJ}.. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported ({CC} {BY} 4.0) license, which permits others to copy, redistribute, remix, transform and build upon this work for any purpose, provided the original work is properly cited, a link to the licence is given, and indication of whether changes were made. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.},
	issn = {2059-7908},
	url = {https://gh.bmj.com/content/6/2/e005175},
	doi = {10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005175},
	shorttitle = {{COVID}-19 in the Middle East and North Africa region},
	abstract = {\#\#\# Summary box

As of December 2020, Arab countries of the Middle East and North Africa ({MENA}) region have reported more than 3.2 million confirmed cases of {SARS}-{CoV}-2 and 55 000 deaths from {COVID}-19.1 The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation noted a threefold increase in the number of deaths in the region between September and December 2020, with {COVID}-19 projected to become the fourth leading cause of death by early 2021.2 Yet significant discrepancies in both indicators and quality of data reported across the {MENA} region limit our understanding of the scope and the implications of the pandemic in the Arab context. The {MENA} region is distinctly conflict-affected and displacement-affected, which may foster unique vulnerabilities to {SARS}-{CoV}-2 transmission and illness severity. Low testing rates, limited data on excess mortality and poor vital registration systems, which are further weakened in the context of chronic political unrest, all contribute to consistent under-reporting in the region.

In order to develop a timely and context-informed response to the pandemic and more recently to the vaccination statistics, publicly available and disaggregated data …},
	pages = {e005175},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {{BMJ} Global Health},
	author = {Wehbe, Sarah and Fahme, Sasha A. and Rizk, Anthony and Mumtaz, Ghina R. and {DeJong}, Jocelyn and Sibai, Abla M.},
	urldate = {2022-03-24},
	date = {2021-02-01},
	langid = {english},
	pmid = {33563720},
	note = {Publisher: {BMJ} Specialist Journals
Section: Commentary},
	keywords = {epidemiology, health systems evaluation, public health},
}

@article{van_bavel_national_2022,
	title = {National identity predicts public health support during a global pandemic},
	volume = {13},
	rights = {2022 The Author(s)},
	issn = {2041-1723},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-27668-9},
	doi = {10.1038/s41467-021-27668-9},
	abstract = {Changing collective behaviour and supporting non-pharmaceutical interventions is an important component in mitigating virus transmission during a pandemic. In a large international collaboration (Study 1, N = 49,968 across 67 countries), we investigated self-reported factors associated with public health behaviours (e.g., spatial distancing and stricter hygiene) and endorsed public policy interventions (e.g., closing bars and restaurants) during the early stage of the {COVID}-19 pandemic (April-May 2020). Respondents who reported identifying more strongly with their nation consistently reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies. Results were similar for representative and non-representative national samples. Study 2 (N = 42 countries) conceptually replicated the central finding using aggregate indices of national identity (obtained using the World Values Survey) and a measure of actual behaviour change during the pandemic (obtained from Google mobility reports). Higher levels of national identification prior to the pandemic predicted lower mobility during the early stage of the pandemic (r = −0.40). We discuss the potential implications of links between national identity, leadership, and public health for managing {COVID}-19 and future pandemics.},
	pages = {517},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Nature Communications},
	shortjournal = {Nat Commun},
	author = {Van Bavel, Jay J. and Cichocka, Aleksandra and Capraro, Valerio and Sjåstad, Hallgeir and Nezlek, John B. and Pavlović, Tomislav and Alfano, Mark and Gelfand, Michele J. and Azevedo, Flavio and Birtel, Michèle D. and Cislak, Aleksandra and Lockwood, Patricia L. and Ross, Robert Malcolm and Abts, Koen and Agadullina, Elena and Aruta, John Jamir Benzon and Besharati, Sahba Nomvula and Bor, Alexander and Choma, Becky L. and Crabtree, Charles David and Cunningham, William A. and De, Koustav and Ejaz, Waqas and Elbaek, Christian T. and Findor, Andrej and Flichtentrei, Daniel and Franc, Renata and Gjoneska, Biljana and Gruber, June and Gualda, Estrella and Horiuchi, Yusaku and Huynh, Toan Luu Duc and Ibanez, Augustin and Imran, Mostak Ahamed and Israelashvili, Jacob and Jasko, Katarzyna and Kantorowicz, Jaroslaw and Kantorowicz-Reznichenko, Elena and Krouwel, André and Laakasuo, Michael and Lamm, Claus and Leygue, Caroline and Lin, Ming-Jen and Mansoor, Mohammad Sabbir and Marie, Antoine and Mayiwar, Lewend and Mazepus, Honorata and {McHugh}, Cillian and Minda, John Paul and Mitkidis, Panagiotis and Olsson, Andreas and Otterbring, Tobias and Packer, Dominic J. and Perry, Anat and Petersen, Michael Bang and Puthillam, Arathy and Riaño-Moreno, Julián C. and Rothmund, Tobias and Santamaría-García, Hernando and Schmid, Petra C. and Stoyanov, Drozdstoy and Tewari, Shruti and Todosijević, Bojan and Tsakiris, Manos and Tung, Hans H. and Umbreș, Radu G. and Vanags, Edmunds and Vlasceanu, Madalina and Vonasch, Andrew and Yucel, Meltem and Zhang, Yucheng and Abad, Mohcine and Adler, Eli and Akrawi, Narin and Mdarhri, Hamza Alaoui and Amara, Hanane and Amodio, David M. and Antazo, Benedict G. and Apps, Matthew and Ay, F. Ceren and Ba, Mouhamadou Hady and Barbosa, Sergio and Bastian, Brock and Berg, Anton and Bernal-Zárate, Maria P. and Bernstein, Michael and Białek, Michał and Bilancini, Ennio and Bogatyreva, Natalia and Boncinelli, Leonardo and Booth, Jonathan E. and Borau, Sylvie and Buchel, Ondrej and Cameron, C. Daryl and Carvalho, Chrissie F. and Celadin, Tatiana and Cerami, Chiara and Chalise, Hom Nath and Cheng, Xiaojun and Cian, Luca and Cockcroft, Kate and Conway, Jane and Córdoba-Delgado, Mateo Andres and Crespi, Chiara and Crouzevialle, Marie and Cutler, Jo and Cypryańska, Marzena and Dabrowska, Justyna and Daniels, Michael A. and Davis, Victoria H. and Dayley, Pamala N. and Delouvee, Sylvain and Denkovski, Ognjan and Dezecache, Guillaume and Dhaliwal, Nathan A. and Diato, Alelie B. and Di Paolo, Roberto and Drosinou, Marianna and Dulleck, Uwe and Ekmanis, Jānis and Ertan, Arhan S. and Etienne, Tom W. and Farhana, Hapsa Hossain and Farkhari, Fahima and Farmer, Harry and Fenwick, Ali and Fidanovski, Kristijan and Flew, Terry and Fraser, Shona and Frempong, Raymond Boadi and Fugelsang, Jonathan A. and Gale, Jessica and Garcia-Navarro, E. Begoña and Garladinne, Prasad and Ghajjou, Oussama and Gkinopoulos, Theofilos and Gray, Kurt and Griffin, Siobhán M. and Gronfeldt, Bjarki and Gümren, Mert and Gurung, Ranju Lama and Halperin, Eran and Harris, Elizabeth and Herzon, Volo and Hruška, Matej and Huang, Guanxiong and Hudecek, Matthias F. C. and Isler, Ozan and Jangard, Simon and Jørgensen, Frederik J. and Kachanoff, Frank and Kahn, John and Dangol, Apsara Katuwal and Keudel, Oleksandra and Koppel, Lina and Koverola, Mika and Kubin, Emily and Kunnari, Anton and Kutiyski, Yordan and Laguna, Oscar and Leota, Josh and Lermer, Eva and Levy, Jonathan and Levy, Neil and Li, Chunyun and Long, Elizabeth U. and Longoni, Chiara and Maglić, Marina and {McCashin}, Darragh and Metcalf, Alexander L. and Mikloušić, Igor and El Mimouni, Soulaimane and Miura, Asako and Molina-Paredes, Juliana and Monroy-Fonseca, César and Morales-Marente, Elena and Moreau, David and Muda, Rafał and Myer, Annalisa and Nash, Kyle and Nesh-Nash, Tarik and Nitschke, Jonas P. and Nurse, Matthew S. and Ohtsubo, Yohsuke and Oldemburgo de Mello, Victoria and O’Madagain, Cathal and Onderco, Michal and Palacios-Galvez, M. Soledad and Palomäki, Jussi and Pan, Yafeng and Papp, Zsófia and Pärnamets, Philip and Paruzel-Czachura, Mariola and Pavlović, Zoran and Payán-Gómez, César and Perander, Silva and Pitman, Michael Mark and Prasad, Rajib and Pyrkosz-Pacyna, Joanna and Rathje, Steve and Raza, Ali and Rêgo, Gabriel G. and Rhee, Kasey and Robertson, Claire E. and Rodríguez-Pascual, Iván and Saikkonen, Teemu and Salvador-Ginez, Octavio and Sampaio, Waldir M. and Santi, Gaia C. and Santiago-Tovar, Natalia and Savage, David and Scheffer, Julian A. and Schönegger, Philipp and Schultner, David T. and Schutte, Enid M. and Scott, Andy and Sharma, Madhavi and Sharma, Pujan and Skali, Ahmed and Stadelmann, David and Stafford, Clara Alexandra and Stanojević, Dragan and Stefaniak, Anna and Sternisko, Anni and Stoica, Augustin and Stoyanova, Kristina K. and Strickland, Brent and Sundvall, Jukka and Thomas, Jeffrey P. and Tinghög, Gustav and Torgler, Benno and Traast, Iris J. and Tucciarelli, Raffaele and Tyrala, Michael and Ungson, Nick D. and Uysal, Mete S. and Van Lange, Paul A. M. and van Prooijen, Jan-Willem and van Rooy, Dirk and Västfjäll, Daniel and Verkoeijen, Peter and Vieira, Joana B. and von Sikorski, Christian and Walker, Alexander Cameron and Watermeyer, Jennifer and Wetter, Erik and Whillans, Ashley and Willardt, Robin and Wohl, Michael J. A. and Wójcik, Adrian Dominik and Wu, Kaidi and Yamada, Yuki and Yilmaz, Onurcan and Yogeeswaran, Kumar and Ziemer, Carolin-Theresa and Zwaan, Rolf A. and Boggio, Paulo S.},
	urldate = {2022-03-24},
	date = {2022-01-26},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Number: 1
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
	keywords = {Human behaviour, Viral infection},
}

@article{muller_when_2005,
	title = {When moderation is mediated and mediation is moderated},
	volume = {89},
	issn = {1939-1315},
	doi = {10.1037/0022-3514.89.6.852},
	abstract = {Procedures for examining whether treatment effects on an outcome are mediated and/or moderated have been well developed and are routinely applied. The mediation question focuses on the intervening mechanism that produces the treatment effect. The moderation question focuses on factors that affect the magnitude of the treatment effect. It is important to note that these two processes may be combined in informative ways, such that moderation is mediated or mediation is moderated. Although some prior literature has discussed these possibilities, their exact definitions and analytic procedures have not been completely articulated. The purpose of this article is to define precisely both mediated moderation and moderated mediation and provide analytic strategies for assessing each. ({PsycINFO} Database Record (c) 2016 {APA}, all rights reserved)},
	pages = {852--863},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Personality and Social Psychology},
	author = {Muller, Dominique and Judd, Charles M. and Yzerbyt, Vincent Y.},
	date = {2005},
	note = {Place: {US}
Publisher: American Psychological Association},
	keywords = {Experimental Design, Experimentation, Mediation, Treatment, Treatment Effectiveness Evaluation},
}

@article{baskan_rising_2010,
	title = {The rising Islamic business elite and democratization in Turkey},
	volume = {12},
	issn = {1944-8953},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/19448953.2010.531207},
	doi = {10.1080/19448953.2010.531207},
	pages = {399--416},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies},
	author = {Başkan, Filiz},
	urldate = {2022-03-22},
	date = {2010-12-01},
	note = {Publisher: Routledge
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/19448953.2010.531207},
}

@article{greenwood_bad_2008,
	title = {Bad for Business?: Entrepreneurs and Democracy in the Arab World},
	volume = {41},
	issn = {0010-4140},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414007300123},
	doi = {10.1177/0010414007300123},
	shorttitle = {Bad for Business?},
	abstract = {Why do business communities in some developing countries support democratization whereas business communities in other developing countries continue to support authoritarian rule? In an effort to answer this question, the author compares the political behavior of entrepreneurs in one region where entrepreneurs have supported democratization, Latin America, with a region where entrepreneurs have not, the Arab world. Although Latin American business communities supported democratization during the 1980s and 1990s in an effort to reestablish their influence over economic policy making, restore competent management of the economy, and help bring about governments' enjoying greater popular legitimacy, entrepreneurs' continued support for authoritarian rule in the Middle East and North Africa is related to the high incidence of regional conflicts, entrepreneurs' fear that democratization will empower Islamist parties seeking to reverse economic liberalization, and the perceived potential for democratization to lead to increased civil strife.},
	pages = {837--860},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	shortjournal = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Greenwood, Scott},
	urldate = {2022-03-22},
	date = {2008-06-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Inc},
	keywords = {Jordan, Morocco, authoritarianism, business, democratization},
}

@book{moore_doing_2009,
	title = {Doing Business in the Middle East: Politics and Economic Crisis in Jordan and Kuwait},
	publisher = {Cambridge Univ Press: Cambridge, {UK}},
	author = {Moore, Pete W.},
	date = {2009},
}

@article{mazaheri_no_2018,
	title = {No Arab Bourgeoisie, No Democracy? The Entrepreneurial Middle Class and Democratic Attitudes since the Arab Spring},
	volume = {50},
	issn = {0010-4159},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/26532702},
	shorttitle = {No Arab Bourgeoisie, No Democracy?},
	abstract = {This study examines support for democracy among a key subgroup of the Arab middle class—the small business community—before and after the start of the Arab Spring. Although historically cast as anti-democratic, we provide evidence that small business owners became more pro-democratic after the start of the Arab Spring. Yet their support for democracy varies according to the presence and type of political upheaval that occurred in their country. When confronted by a governmental crisis or regime breakdown, small business owners are less supportive of democracy than their peers in more stable countries and even fellow citizens. Our findings stem from survey data of more than 3,000 small business owners across fourteen Arab countries, in addition to 50 interviews conducted in Jordan.},
	pages = {523--543},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Politics},
	author = {Mazaheri, Nimah and Monroe, Steve L.},
	urldate = {2022-03-22},
	date = {2018},
	note = {Publisher: Comparative Politics, Ph.D. Programs in Political Science, City University of New York},
}

@article{staniland_pakistans_2020,
	title = {Pakistan’s military elite},
	volume = {43},
	issn = {0140-2390},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2018.1497487},
	doi = {10.1080/01402390.2018.1497487},
	abstract = {The Pakistan Army is a politically important organization, yet its opacity has hindered academic research. We use open sources to construct unique new data on the backgrounds, careers, and post-retirement activities of post-1971 corps commanders and directors-general of Inter-Services Intelligence. We provide evidence of bureaucratic predictability and professionalism while officers are in service. After retirement, we show little involvement in electoral politics but extensive involvement in military-linked corporations, state employment, and other positions of influence. This combination provides Pakistan’s military with an unusual blend of professional discipline internally and political power externally – even when not directly ruling.},
	pages = {74--103},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Strategic Studies},
	author = {Staniland, Paul and Naseemullah, Adnan and Butt, Ahsan},
	urldate = {2022-03-22},
	date = {2020-01-02},
	note = {Publisher: Routledge
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2018.1497487},
	keywords = {Erratum, Pakistan, South Asia, bureaucracy, civil–military relations, militaries},
}

@article{myoe_soldier_2014,
	title = {The soldier and the state: the Tatmadaw and political liberalization in Myanmar since 2011},
	volume = {22},
	issn = {0967-828X},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/43818522},
	shorttitle = {The soldier and the state},
	abstract = {The government of Myanmar is today publicly committed to building a 'modern developed democratic nation'. It has initiated a number of measures aimed at political and economic liberalization. This article examines the military's perception of the ongoing process of liberalization. It argues that, on the basis of mutual understanding and smooth relations between the government and the military at both individual and institutional levels, the military is likely to continue its support for the political liberalization measures initiated by the President and supported by the National Assembly. However, the military is not yet prepared to tolerate any structural changes that would undermine its national political role, the basic principles it has laid down for national unity, or its institutional autonomy.},
	pages = {233--249},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {South East Asia Research},
	author = {Myoe, Maung Aung},
	urldate = {2022-03-22},
	date = {2014},
	note = {Publisher: Sage Publications, Ltd.},
}

@article{djankov_regulation_2002,
	title = {The Regulation of Entry*},
	volume = {117},
	issn = {0033-5533},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1162/003355302753399436},
	doi = {10.1162/003355302753399436},
	abstract = {We present new data on the regulation of entry of start-up firms in 85 countries. The data cover the number of procedures, official time, and official cost that a start-up must bear before it can operate legally. The official costs of entry are extremely high in most countries. Countries with heavier regulation of entry have higher corruption and larger unofficial economies, but not better quality of public or private goods. Countries with more democratic and limited governments have lighter regulation of entry. The evidence is inconsistent with public interest theories of regulation, but supports the public choice view that entry regulation benefits politicians and bureaucrats.},
	pages = {1--37},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	shortjournal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	author = {Djankov, Simeon and La Porta, Rafael and Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio and Shleifer, Andrei},
	urldate = {2022-03-22},
	date = {2002-02-01},
}

@article{ang_perverse_2014,
	title = {Perverse Complementarity: Political Connections and the Use of Courts among Private Firms in China},
	volume = {76},
	issn = {0022-3816},
	url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1017/S0022381613001400},
	doi = {10.1017/S0022381613001400},
	shorttitle = {Perverse Complementarity},
	abstract = {Using survey data of over 3,900 private firms in China, we examine whether—and how—political connections promote or undermine the use of formal legal institutions. We find that politically connected firms are more inclined than nonconnected firms to use courts over informal avenues of dispute resolution. Furthermore, by comparing the effects of political connections on dispute-resolution patterns across regional institutional environments, we find that “know-who” (political influence over adjudication) dominates “know-how” (knowledge of navigating courts) in linking political connections to the use of courts. Contrary to canonical theories that predict the declining significance of connections following the expansion of courts, our study suggests that informal networks and formal laws are more likely to share a relationship of perverse complementarity in transitional and authoritarian contexts. Political connections are positively linked to the use of legal procedures, and the primary mechanism behind the link is “know-who” over “know-how.”},
	pages = {318--332},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of Politics},
	author = {Ang, Yuen Yuen and Jia, Nan},
	urldate = {2022-03-16},
	date = {2014-04},
	note = {Publisher: The University of Chicago Press},
}

@article{chen_busting_2019,
	title = {Busting the “Princelings”: The Campaign Against Corruption in China’s Primary Land Market*},
	volume = {134},
	issn = {0033-5533},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy027},
	doi = {10.1093/qje/qjy027},
	shorttitle = {Busting the “Princelings”},
	abstract = {Using data on over a million land transactions during 2004–2016 where local governments are the sole seller, we find that firms linked to members of China's supreme political elites—the Politburo—obtained a price discount ranging from 55.4\% to 59.9\% compared with those without the same connections. These firms also purchased slightly more land. In return, the provincial party secretaries who provided the discount to these “princeling” firms are 23.4\% more likely to be promoted to positions of national leadership. To curb corruption, President Xi Jinping stepped up investigations and strengthened personnel control at the province level. Using a spatially matched sample (e.g., within a 500-meter radius), we find a reduction in corruption of between 42.6\% and 31.5\% in the provinces either targeted by the central inspection teams or whose party secretary was replaced by one appointed by Xi. Accordingly, this crackdown on corruption has also significantly reduced the promotional prospects of those local officials who rely on supplying a discount to get ahead.},
	pages = {185--226},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	shortjournal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	author = {Chen, Ting and Kung, James Kai-sing},
	urldate = {2022-03-16},
	date = {2019-02-01},
}

@collection{chambers_khaki_2017,
	title = {Khaki Capital: The Political Economy of the Military in Southeast Asia},
	publisher = {Nordic Institute of Asian Studies},
	editor = {Chambers, Paul and Waitoolkiat, Napisa},
	date = {2017},
}

@online{noauthor_home_nodate,
	title = {Home / Twitter},
	url = {https://twitter.com/home},
	titleaddon = {Twitter},
	urldate = {2022-03-13},
	langid = {english},
}

@online{noauthor_home_nodate-1,
	title = {Home / Twitter},
	url = {https://twitter.com/home},
	titleaddon = {Twitter},
	urldate = {2022-03-11},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{coppock_generalizing_2019,
	title = {Generalizing from survey experiments conducted on Mechanical turk: A replication approach},
	volume = {7},
	pages = {61},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Political Science Research and Methods},
	author = {Coppock, Alex},
	date = {2019},
}

@report{heckman_dummy_1977,
	title = {Dummy endogenous variables in a simultaneous equation system},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Heckman, James J.},
	date = {1977},
}

@article{bhaduri_extending_nodate,
	title = {Extending the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed ({SEIR}) model to handle the false negative rate and symptom-based administration of {COVID}-19 diagnostic tests: {SEIR}-fansy},
	volume = {n/a},
	issn = {1097-0258},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/sim.9357},
	doi = {10.1002/sim.9357},
	shorttitle = {Extending the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed ({SEIR}) model to handle the false negative rate and symptom-based administration of {COVID}-19 diagnostic tests},
	abstract = {False negative rates of severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 diagnostic tests, together with selection bias due to prioritized testing can result in inaccurate modeling of {COVID}-19 transmission dynamics based on reported “case” counts. We propose an extension of the widely used Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed ({SEIR}) model that accounts for misclassification error and selection bias, and derive an analytic expression for the basic reproduction number R0 as a function of false negative rates of the diagnostic tests and selection probabilities for getting tested. Analyzing data from the first two waves of the pandemic in India, we show that correcting for misclassification and selection leads to more accurate prediction in a test sample. We provide estimates of undetected infections and deaths between April 1, 2020 and August 31, 2021. At the end of the first wave in India, the estimated under-reporting factor for cases was at 11.1 (95\% {CI}: 10.7,11.5) and for deaths at 3.58 (95\% {CI}: 3.5,3.66) as of February 1, 2021, while they change to 19.2 (95\% {CI}: 17.9, 19.9) and 4.55 (95\% {CI}: 4.32, 4.68) as of July 1, 2021. Equivalently, 9.0\% (95\% {CI}: 8.7\%, 9.3\%) and 5.2\% (95\% {CI}: 5.0\%, 5.6\%) of total estimated infections were reported on these two dates, while 27.9\% (95\% {CI}: 27.3\%, 28.6\%) and 22\% (95\% {CI}: 21.4\%, 23.1\%) of estimated total deaths were reported. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the effect of misclassification and selection on estimation of R0 and prediction of future infections. A R-package {SEIRfansy} is developed for broader dissemination.},
	issue = {n/a},
	journaltitle = {Statistics in Medicine},
	author = {Bhaduri, Ritwik and Kundu, Ritoban and Purkayastha, Soumik and Kleinsasser, Michael and Beesley, Lauren J. and Mukherjee, Bhramar and Datta, Jyotishka},
	urldate = {2022-03-08},
	langid = {english},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/sim.9357},
	keywords = {R package {SEIRfansy}, compartmental models, infection fatality rate, reproduction number, selection bias, sensitivity, undetected infections},
}

@article{simonov_demand_2022,
	title = {Demand for Online News under Government Control: Evidence from Russia},
	volume = {130},
	issn = {0022-3808},
	url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/717351},
	doi = {10.1086/717351},
	shorttitle = {Demand for Online News under Government Control},
	abstract = {We examine the nature of consumer demand for government-controlled online news outlets in Russia, testing whether such demand reflects a preference for progovernment ideological coverage or other factors unrelated to outlets’ ideological positions. We detect government-sensitive topics and measure outlets’ news-reporting decisions from news article texts, and we estimate a structural model of demand for news, using detailed browsing data that traces individual-level consumption. The average consumer has a distaste for progovernment ideology but a strong, persistent taste for state-owned outlets, primarily driven by third-party referrals and nonsensitive news content. We discuss implications for online media control and media power.},
	pages = {259--309},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Political Economy},
	author = {Simonov, Andrey and Rao, Justin},
	urldate = {2022-03-07},
	date = {2022-02-01},
	note = {Publisher: The University of Chicago Press},
}

@article{grzymala-busse_consequences_2020,
	title = {Consequences of Authoritarian Party Exit and Reinvention for Democratic Competition},
	volume = {53},
	issn = {0010-4140},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414019897683},
	doi = {10.1177/0010414019897683},
	abstract = {How do the successors to authoritarian ruling parties influence subsequent democratic party competition? The existing literature does not distinguish among these parties, nor does it differentiate among the distinct strategies of their adaptation to the collapse of authoritarian rule. As a result, the impact of these parties on democracy has been unclear and difficult to discern. Yet, using a novel data set with observations from postcommunist Europe, Africa, Asia, and Latin America, I find that the exit of authoritarian ruling parties from power and their subsequent reinvention as committed democratic competitors are powerfully associated with robust democratic party competition. Mixed effects regressions and estimates of treatment effects show that authoritarian exit and reinvention promote the success of democratic party competition.},
	pages = {1704--1737},
	number = {10},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	shortjournal = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Grzymala-Busse, Anna},
	urldate = {2022-03-02},
	date = {2020-09-01},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Inc},
	keywords = {authoritarian successor parties, party competition, quality of democracy},
}

@article{costa_democracy_2022,
	title = {“Democracy Is Always Going to Be Hard”: An Interview with Charles Taylor},
	issn = {0034-6705, 1748-6858},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/review-of-politics/article/abs/democracy-is-always-going-to-be-hard-an-interview-with-charles-taylor/48D6E315637C04B38862FF219CA92BDF?utm_source=hootsuite&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=ROP_Feb22},
	doi = {10.1017/S0034670522000092},
	shorttitle = {“Democracy Is Always Going to Be Hard”},
	abstract = {This interview with the Canadian philosopher Charles Taylor was designed and realized to celebrate his ninetieth birthday in November 2021. The interview touches on all the main themes of Taylor's oeuvre, from his view of philosophy to the inherent link between human intelligence and strong evaluations, from the Immanent Frame to postsecularity, from today's democratic crisis to the 1980s debate between liberals and communitarians, from Xi Jinping's China to the global health emergency, from spirituality to Philosophical Romanticism. It is both a hindsight analysis by a first-class thinker and a glance into the future by an incurable optimist.},
	pages = {1--14},
	journaltitle = {The Review of Politics},
	author = {Costa, Paolo},
	urldate = {2022-03-02},
	date = {2022-02-24},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
}

@article{flaxman_estimating_2020,
	title = {Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on {COVID}-19 in Europe},
	volume = {584},
	doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7},
	abstract = {Following the detection of the new coronavirus1 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ({SARS}-{CoV}-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics of coronavirus disease 2019 ({COVID}-19). In response, many European countries have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as the closure of schools and national lockdowns. Here we study the effect of major interventions across 11 European countries for the period from the start of the {COVID}-19 epidemics in February 2020 until 4 May 2020, when lockdowns started to be lifted. Our model calculates backwards from observed deaths to estimate transmission that occurred several weeks previously, allowing for the time lag between infection and death. We use partial pooling of information between countries, with both individual and shared effects on the time-varying reproduction number (Rt). Pooling allows for more information to be used, helps to overcome idiosyncrasies in the data and enables more-timely estimates. Our model relies on fixed estimates of some epidemiological parameters (such as the infection fatality rate), does not include importation or subnational variation and assumes that changes in Rt are an immediate response to interventions rather than gradual changes in behaviour. Amidst the ongoing pandemic, we rely on death data that are incomplete, show systematic biases in reporting and are subject to future consolidation. We estimate that—for all of the countries we consider here—current interventions have been sufficient to drive Rt below 1 (probability Rt {\textless} 1.0 is greater than 99\%) and achieve control of the epidemic. We estimate that across all 11 countries combined, between 12 and 15 million individuals were infected with {SARS}-{CoV}-2 up to 4 May 2020, representing between 3.2\% and 4.0\% of the population. Our results show that major non-pharmaceutical interventions—and lockdowns in particular—have had a large effect on reducing transmission. Continued intervention should be considered to keep transmission of {SARS}-{CoV}-2 under control.},
	pages = {257--261},
	number = {7820},
	journaltitle = {Nature},
	shortjournal = {Nature},
	author = {Flaxman, Seth and Mishra, Swapnil and Gandy, Axel and Unwin, H. Juliette T. and Mellan, Thomas A. and Coupland, Helen and Whittaker, Charles and Zhu, Harrison and Berah, Tresnia and Eaton, Jeffrey W. and Monod, Mélodie and Perez-Guzman, Pablo N. and Schmit, Nora and Cilloni, Lucia and Ainslie, Kylie E. C. and Baguelin, Marc and Boonyasiri, Adhiratha and Boyd, Olivia and Cattarino, Lorenzo and Cooper, Laura V. and Cucunubá, Zulma and Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina and Dighe, Amy and Djaafara, Bimandra and Dorigatti, Ilaria and van Elsland, Sabine L. and FitzJohn, Richard G. and Gaythorpe, Katy A. M. and Geidelberg, Lily and Grassly, Nicholas C. and Green, William D. and Hallett, Timothy and Hamlet, Arran and Hinsley, Wes and Jeffrey, Ben and Knock, Edward and Laydon, Daniel J. and Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma and Nouvellet, Pierre and Parag, Kris V. and Siveroni, Igor and Thompson, Hayley A. and Verity, Robert and Volz, Erik and Walters, Caroline E. and Wang, Haowei and Wang, Yuanrong and Watson, Oliver J. and Winskill, Peter and Xi, Xiaoyue and Walker, Patrick G. T. and Ghani, Azra C. and Donnelly, Christl A. and Riley, Steven and Vollmer, Michaela A. C. and Ferguson, Neil M. and Okell, Lucy C. and Bhatt, Samir and {Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team}},
	date = {2020-08-01},
}

@article{flaxman_reply_2020,
	title = {Reply to: The effect of interventions on {COVID}-19},
	volume = {588},
	rights = {2020 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-3026-x},
	shorttitle = {Reply to},
	pages = {E29--E32},
	number = {7839},
	journaltitle = {Nature},
	author = {Flaxman, Seth and Mishra, Swapnil and Scott, James and Ferguson, Neil and Gandy, Axel and Bhatt, Samir},
	date = {2020-12},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{soltesz_effect_2020,
	title = {The effect of interventions on {COVID}-19},
	volume = {588},
	rights = {2020 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-3025-y},
	pages = {E26--E28},
	number = {7839},
	journaltitle = {Nature},
	author = {Soltesz, Kristian and Gustafsson, Fredrik and Timpka, Toomas and Jaldén, Joakim and Jidling, Carl and Heimerson, Albin and Schön, Thomas B. and Spreco, Armin and Ekberg, Joakim and Dahlström, Örjan and Bagge Carlson, Fredrik and Jöud, Anna and Bernhardsson, Bo},
	date = {2020-12},
}

@article{sebhatu_explaining_2020,
	title = {Explaining the homogeneous diffusion of {COVID}-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions across heterogeneous countries},
	volume = {117},
	rights = {Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by {PNAS}.. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-{NonCommercial}-{NoDerivatives} License 4.0 ({CC} {BY}-{NC}-{ND}).},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.2010625117},
	abstract = {We analyze the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ({OECD}) countries during the early phase of the coronavirus disease 2019 ({COVID}-19) pandemic. Given the complexity associated with pandemic decisions, governments are faced with the dilemma of how to act quickly when their core decision-making processes are based on deliberations balancing political considerations. Our findings show that, in times of severe crisis, governments follow the lead of others and base their decisions on what other countries do. Governments in countries with a stronger democratic structure are slower to react in the face of the pandemic but are more sensitive to the influence of other countries. We provide insights for research on international policy diffusion and research on the political consequences of the {COVID}-19 pandemic.},
	pages = {21201--21208},
	number = {35},
	journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Sebhatu, Abiel and Wennberg, Karl and Arora-Jonsson, Stefan and Lindberg, Staffan I.},
	date = {2020-09-01},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19 pandemic, democracy, policy diffusion},
}

@article{sebhatu_explaining_2020-1,
	title = {Explaining the homogeneous diffusion of {COVID}-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions across heterogeneous countries},
	volume = {117},
	rights = {Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by {PNAS}.. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-{NonCommercial}-{NoDerivatives} License 4.0 ({CC} {BY}-{NC}-{ND}).},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.2010625117},
	abstract = {We analyze the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ({OECD}) countries during the early phase of the coronavirus disease 2019 ({COVID}-19) pandemic. Given the complexity associated with pandemic decisions, governments are faced with the dilemma of how to act quickly when their core decision-making processes are based on deliberations balancing political considerations. Our findings show that, in times of severe crisis, governments follow the lead of others and base their decisions on what other countries do. Governments in countries with a stronger democratic structure are slower to react in the face of the pandemic but are more sensitive to the influence of other countries. We provide insights for research on international policy diffusion and research on the political consequences of the {COVID}-19 pandemic.},
	pages = {21201--21208},
	number = {35},
	journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Sebhatu, Abiel and Wennberg, Karl and Arora-Jonsson, Stefan and Lindberg, Staffan I.},
	date = {2020-09-01},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19 pandemic, democracy, policy diffusion},
}

@report{phillips_year_2021,
	location = {Rochester, {NY}},
	title = {A Year of Living Distantly: Trends in the Use of Stay-at-Home Orders Over the First 12 Months of the {COVID}-19 Pandemic},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3847818},
	abstract = {During the first year of the {COVID}-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions ({NPI}) were the main pillar of defense to protect human society against the virus. While a variety of modeling studies try to quantify the effects of {NPIs}, this paper investigates when and how national and subnational governments take actions. We observe longitudinal changes in the global pattern of policymaking to combat the {COVID}-19 pandemic, with a particular focus on stay-at-home orders. Drawing on data from the Oxford {COVID}-19 Government Response Tracker, we show several important trends. First, while national governments exhibited a strong convergence in policy settings initially in March and April 2020, their cross-country policy heterogeneity has grown since May 2020, although neighboring countries often continue to display similarities in their approaches. Second, most governments that have implemented multiple stay-at-home orders over the course of the pandemic have become less sensitive to case levels (insofar as they implement subsequent restrictions at progressively higher case levels), apart from a small number of contrast cases which have mostly eliminated domestic community transmission. Third, pandemic policy decisions are increasingly made at subnational levels, however there is significant heterogeneity with regards to decision-making approaches even within the same country.},
	institution = {Social Science Research Network},
	author = {Phillips, Toby and Zhang, Yuxi and Petherick, Anna},
	date = {2021-05-01},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, Government, Lockdown, Pandemic, Policy, Stay-at-Home, Subnational},
}

@article{petherick_worldwide_2021,
	title = {A worldwide assessment of changes in adherence to {COVID}-19 protective behaviours and hypothesized pandemic fatigue},
	rights = {2021 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-021-01181-x},
	abstract = {As the {COVID}-19 pandemic lingers, the possibility of ‘pandemic fatigue’ has raised worldwide concerns. Here, we examine whether there was a gradual reduction in adherence to protective behaviours against {COVID}-19 from March through December 2020, as hypothesized in expectations of fatigue. We considered self-report behaviours from representative samples of the populations of 14 countries (N = 238,797), as well as mobility and policy data for 124 countries. Our results show that changes in adherence were empirically meaningful and geographically widespread. While a low-cost and habituating behaviour (mask wearing) exhibited a linear rise in adherence, high-cost and sensitizing behaviours (physical distancing) declined, but this decline decelerated over time, with small rebounds seen in later months. Reductions in adherence to physical distancing showed little difference across societal groups, but were less intense in countries with high interpersonal trust. Alternative underlying mechanisms and policy implications are discussed.},
	pages = {1--16},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Petherick, Anna and Goldszmidt, Rafael and Andrade, Eduardo B. and Furst, Rodrigo and Hale, Thomas and Pott, Annalena and Wood, Andrew},
	date = {2021-08-03},
}

@article{pemstein_democratic_2017,
	title = {Democratic Compromise: A Latent Variable Analysis of Ten Measures of Regime Type},
	volume = {18},
	doi = {10.1093/pan/mpq020},
	abstract = {Using a Bayesian latent variable approach, we synthesize a new measure of democracy, the Unified Democracy Scores ({UDS}), from 10 extant scales. Our measure eschews the difficult—and often arbitrary—decision to use one existing democracy scale over another in favor of a cumulative approach that allows us to simultaneously leverage the measurement efforts of numerous scholars. The result of this cumulative approach is a measure of democracy that, for every country-year, is at least as reliable as the most reliable component measure and is accompanied by quantitative estimates of uncertainty in the level of democracy. Moreover, for those who wish to continue using previously existing scales or to evaluate research performed using those scales, we extract information from the new measure to perform heretofore impossible direct comparisons between component scales. Specifically, we estimate the relative reliability of the constituent indicators, compare the specific ordinal levels of each of the existing measures in relationship to one another and assess overall levels of disagreement across raters. We make the {UDS} and associated parameter estimates freely available online and provide a detailed tutorial that demonstrates how to best use the {UDS} in applied work.},
	pages = {426--449},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Pemstein, Daniel and Meserve, Stephen A. and Melton, James},
	date = {2017-01-04},
}

@article{barcelo_windows_2022,
	title = {Windows of Repression: Using {COVID}-19 Policies against Political Dissidents?},
	volume = {Forthcoming},
	url = {https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/yuqw2/},
	shorttitle = {Windows of Repression},
	abstract = {What explains the great variation in the adoption, timing, and duration of government policies made in response to the {COVID}-19 pandemic? In this paper, we explore whether government incentives to repress domestic dissidents influence their responses to the {COVID}-19 pandemic. We argue that containment policies are observationally equivalent to those that abusive governments would use to limit domestic dissent --- i.e., policies that restrict citizen's freedom of movement. This creates an opportunity for abusive governments to engage in repressive behavior without countervailing pressure from citizens and the international community. Following this logic, we expect abusive governments to be more likely to adopt restrictive policies, adopt them earlier in the course of the pandemic, and take longer to relax restrictions. Empirically, we find that governments that have recently engaged in state violence against civilians or abused citizens' human rights were about 10 percent more likely to enact lockdown and curfew policies, and these policies were implemented approximately 48 days earlier in the course of the pandemic and kept in place for approximately 23 more days than less repressive countries. Overall, our results advance our understanding of how the repressiveness of state institutions can shape policy responses to a global health crisis.},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Barceló, Joan and Kubinec, Robert and Cheng, Cindy and Rahn, Tiril Høye and Messerschmidt, Luca},
	urldate = {2021-08-16},
	date = {2022},
	keywords = {Civil liberties, Comparative Politics, Disaster politics, Health Policy, International Relations, Pandemic, Pandemics, Political Science, Social and Behavioral Sciences},
}

@online{noauthor_inbox_nodate-1,
	title = {Inbox - rmk7@nyu.edu - New York University Mail},
	url = {https://mail.google.com/mail/u/1/#inbox},
	urldate = {2022-02-17},
}

@online{noauthor_visual_nodate,
	title = {Visual heuristics for marginal effects plots - Thomas B. Pepinsky, 2018},
	url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053168018756668},
	urldate = {2022-02-15},
}

@article{dafoe_information_2018,
	title = {Information Equivalence in Survey Experiments},
	volume = {26},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/information-equivalence-in-survey-experiments/8D134C6387CD7D845249B0712775AB79},
	doi = {10.1017/pan.2018.9},
	abstract = {Survey experiments often manipulate the description of attributes in a hypothetical scenario, with the goal of learning about those attributes’ real-world effects. Such inferences rely on an underappreciated assumption: experimental conditions must be information equivalent ({IE}) with respect to background features of the scenario. {IE} is often violated because subjects, when presented with information about one attribute, update their beliefs about others too. Labeling a country “a democracy,” for example, affects subjects’ beliefs about the country’s geographic location. When {IE} is violated, the effect of the manipulation need not correspond to the quantity of interest (the effect of beliefs about the focal attribute). We formally define the {IE} assumption, relating it to the exclusion restriction in instrumental-variable analysis. We show how to predict {IE} violations ex ante and diagnose them ex post with placebo tests. We evaluate three strategies for achieving {IE}. Abstract encouragement is ineffective. Specifying background details reduces imbalance on the specified details and highly correlated details, but not others. Embedding a natural experiment in the scenario can reduce imbalance on all background beliefs, but raises other issues. We illustrate with four survey experiments, focusing on an extension of a prominent study of the democratic peace.},
	pages = {399--416},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Dafoe, Allan and Zhang, Baobao and Caughey, Devin},
	urldate = {2022-02-14},
	date = {2018-10},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
	keywords = {causal inference, natural experiments, survey design, survey experiments},
}

@article{kertzer_experiments_2022,
	title = {Experiments and Surveys on Political Elites},
	volume = {25},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120-013649},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120-013649},
	abstract = {One of the major developments in political science in the past decade has been the rise of experiments and surveys on political elites. Yet, the increase in the number of elite studies has outpaced our collective understanding of best practices and how we know a good elite experiment when we see one. In this article, we discuss some of the challenges in the study of political elites—from who counts as an elite to how to best utilize elite experiments in the context of broader research designs. We also offer recommendations on questions of access, recruitment, and representativeness, as well as designs that researchers can use to study “eliteness” without access to elites. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Political Science, Volume 25 is May 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.},
	pages = {null},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Kertzer, Joshua D. and Renshon, Jonathan},
	urldate = {2022-02-09},
	date = {2022},
	note = {\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120-013649},
}

@article{stoto_covid-19_2022,
	title = {{COVID}-19 data are messy: analytic methods for rigorous impact analyses with imperfect data},
	volume = {18},
	issn = {1744-8603},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12992-021-00795-0},
	doi = {10.1186/s12992-021-00795-0},
	shorttitle = {{COVID}-19 data are messy},
	abstract = {The {COVID}-19 pandemic has led to an avalanche of scientific studies, drawing on many different types of data. However, studies addressing the effectiveness of government actions against {COVID}-19, especially non-pharmaceutical interventions, often exhibit data problems that threaten the validity of their results. This review is thus intended to help epidemiologists and other researchers identify a set of data issues that, in our view, must be addressed in order for their work to be credible. We further intend to help journal editors and peer reviewers when evaluating studies, to apprise policy-makers, journalists, and other research consumers about the strengths and weaknesses of published studies, and to inform the wider debate about the scientific quality of {COVID}-19 research.},
	pages = {2},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Globalization and Health},
	shortjournal = {Globalization and Health},
	author = {Stoto, Michael A. and Woolverton, Abbey and Kraemer, John and Barlow, Pepita and Clarke, Michael},
	urldate = {2022-02-08},
	date = {2022-01-06},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, Impact analysis, Interrupted time-series analysis, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, Observational studies, Study design, Surveillance biases, Surveillance data},
}

@article{vehtari_rank-normalization_2021,
	title = {Rank-Normalization, Folding, and Localization: An Improved Rˆ for Assessing Convergence of {MCMC} (with Discussion)},
	volume = {16},
	issn = {1936-0975, 1931-6690},
	url = {https://projecteuclid.org/journals/bayesian-analysis/volume-16/issue-2/Rank-Normalization-Folding-and-Localization--An-Improved-R%cb%86-for/10.1214/20-BA1221.full},
	doi = {10.1214/20-BA1221},
	shorttitle = {Rank-Normalization, Folding, and Localization},
	abstract = {Markov chain Monte Carlo is a key computational tool in Bayesian statistics, but it can be challenging to monitor the convergence of an iterative stochastic algorithm. In this paper we show that the convergence diagnostic Rˆ of Gelman and Rubin (1992) has serious flaws. Traditional Rˆ will fail to correctly diagnose convergence failures when the chain has a heavy tail or when the variance varies across the chains. In this paper we propose an alternative rank-based diagnostic that fixes these problems. We also introduce a collection of quantile-based local efficiency measures, along with a practical approach for computing Monte Carlo error estimates for quantiles. We suggest that common trace plots should be replaced with rank plots from multiple chains. Finally, we give recommendations for how these methods should be used in practice.},
	pages = {667--718},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Bayesian Analysis},
	author = {Vehtari, Aki and Gelman, Andrew and Simpson, Daniel and Carpenter, Bob and Bürkner, Paul-Christian},
	urldate = {2022-02-07},
	date = {2021-06},
	note = {Publisher: International Society for Bayesian Analysis},
}

@article{homan_no-u-turn_2014,
	title = {The No-U-turn sampler: adaptively setting path lengths in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {1532-4435},
	shorttitle = {The No-U-turn sampler},
	abstract = {Hamiltonian Monte Carlo ({HMC}) is a Markov chain Monte Carlo ({MCMC}) algorithm that avoids the random walk behavior and sensitivity to correlated parameters that plague many {MCMC} methods by taking a series of steps informed by first-order gradient information. These features allow it to converge to high-dimensional target distributions much more quickly than simpler methods such as random walk Metropolis or Gibbs sampling. However, {HMC}'s performance is highly sensitive to two user-specified parameters: a step size ε and a desired number of steps L. In particular, if L is too small then the algorithm exhibits undesirable random walk behavior, while if L is too large the algorithm wastes computation. We introduce the No-U-Turn Sampler ({NUTS}), an extension to {HMC} that eliminates the need to set a number of steps L. {NUTS} uses a recursive algorithm to build a set of likely candidate points that spans a wide swath of the target distribution, stopping automatically when it starts to double back and retrace its steps. Empirically, {NUTS} performs at least as efficiently as (and sometimes more effciently than) a well tuned standard {HMC} method, without requiring user intervention or costly tuning runs. We also derive a method for adapting the step size parameter ε on the fly based on primal-dual averaging. {NUTS} can thus be used with no hand-tuning at all, making it suitable for applications such as {BUGS}-style automatic inference engines that require efficient "turnkey" samplers.},
	pages = {1593--1623},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of Machine Learning Research},
	shortjournal = {J. Mach. Learn. Res.},
	author = {Homan, Matthew D. and Gelman, Andrew},
	date = {2014-01-01},
	keywords = {Bayesian inference, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, Markov chain Monte Carlo, adaptive Monte Carlo, dual averaging},
}

@article{schwarz_political_2008,
	title = {The political economy of state-formation in the Arab Middle East: Rentier states, economic reform, and democratization},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {0969-2290},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290802260662},
	doi = {10.1080/09692290802260662},
	shorttitle = {The political economy of state-formation in the Arab Middle East},
	abstract = {This article argues that rentier states stand in contrast to states that have to rely on domestic resource extraction. They display a particular path to state-formation that by and large defies the European path of state-formation: natural resource dependence (mainly oil dependence) has created weak states that are autonomous from societal demands and that do not rely on domestic taxation. State-formation has not been accompanied by political accountability, transparency, or what Charles Tilly has termed the ‘civilianisation of government’. In rentier states the expenditure side of public revenues is most clearly linked to a state-building agenda of creating societal peace and political acquiescence. On a theoretical level, this article offers a new reading of state-formation based on the form and the performance of the state. Focusing on a functional understanding of statehood, it thereby highlight where Arab states are strong (security function and in times of oil booms, welfare function) and where they are weak (representation function, and in times of fiscal crisis, welfare function).},
	pages = {599--621},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Review of International Political Economy},
	author = {Schwarz, Rolf},
	urldate = {2022-02-07},
	date = {2008-10-27},
	note = {Publisher: Routledge
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290802260662},
	keywords = {State-formation, democratization, development, political economy, rentier state, taxation},
}

@article{okunogbe_technology_2022,
	title = {Technology, Taxation, and Corruption: Evidence from the Introduction of Electronic Tax Filing},
	volume = {14},
	issn = {1945-7731},
	url = {https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20200123&from=f},
	doi = {10.1257/pol.20200123},
	shorttitle = {Technology, Taxation, and Corruption},
	abstract = {Many e-government initiatives introduce technology to improve efficiency and avoid potential human bias. Using experimental variation, we examine the impact of electronic tax filing (to replace in-person submission to tax officials) using data from Tajikistan firms. E-filing reduces the time firms spend on taxes by 40 percent. Further, among firms previously more likely to evade, e-filing doubles taxes paid. Conversely, evidence suggests that e-filing reduces tax payments among firms previously less likely to evade. These firms also pay fewer bribes, as e-filing reduces extortion opportunities. These patterns are consistent with differential treatment of firms by tax officials prior to e-filing.},
	pages = {341--372},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Economic Journal: Economic Policy},
	author = {Okunogbe, Oyebola and Pouliquen, Victor},
	urldate = {2022-02-07},
	date = {2022-02},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Choice of Technology, Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development, Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis, Business Taxes and Subsidies including sales and value-added ({VAT}), Tax Evasion and Avoidance, Industrialization, Manufacturing and Service Industries},
}

@article{imai_matching_nodate,
	title = {Matching Methods for Causal Inference with Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data},
	volume = {n/a},
	issn = {1540-5907},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajps.12685},
	doi = {10.1111/ajps.12685},
	abstract = {Matching methods improve the validity of causal inference by reducing model dependence and offering intuitive diagnostics. Although they have become a part of the standard tool kit across disciplines, matching methods are rarely used when analysing time-series cross-sectional data. We fill this methodological gap. In the proposed approach, we first match each treated observation with control observations from other units in the same time period that have an identical treatment history up to the prespecified number of lags. We use standard matching and weighting methods to further refine this matched set so that the treated and matched control observations have similar covariate values. Assessing the quality of matches is done by examining covariate balance. Finally, we estimate both short-term and long-term average treatment effects using the difference-in-differences estimator, accounting for a time trend. We illustrate the proposed methodology through simulation and empirical studies. An open-source software package is available for implementing the proposed methods.},
	issue = {n/a},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Imai, Kosuke and Kim, In Song and Wang, Erik H.},
	urldate = {2022-02-02},
	langid = {english},
	note = {\_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ajps.12685},
}

@article{cai_college_2022,
	title = {College Tuition and Income Inequality},
	volume = {112},
	issn = {0002-8282},
	url = {https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20181027&from=f},
	doi = {10.1257/aer.20181027},
	abstract = {This paper evaluates the role of rising income inequality in explaining observed growth in college tuition. We develop a competitive model of the college market, in which college quality depends on instructional expenditure and the average ability of admitted students. An innovative feature of our model is that it allows for a continuous distribution of college quality. We find that observed increases in {US} income inequality can explain more than half of the observed rise in average net tuition since 1990 and that rising income inequality has also depressed college attendance.},
	pages = {81--121},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Economic Review},
	author = {Cai, Zhifeng and Heathcote, Jonathan},
	urldate = {2022-02-02},
	date = {2022-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Financial Aid, Higher Education, Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions, Educational Finance, Research Institutions, Education and Inequality},
}

@article{mayshar_origin_2021,
	title = {The Origin of the State: Land Productivity or Appropriability?},
	issn = {0022-3808},
	url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/718372},
	doi = {10.1086/718372},
	shorttitle = {The Origin of the State},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Political Economy},
	author = {Mayshar, Joram and Moav, Omer and Pascali, Luigi},
	urldate = {2022-02-02},
	date = {2021-12-01},
	note = {Publisher: The University of Chicago Press},
}

@article{witten_mini-introduction_2020,
	title = {A Mini-Introduction To Information Theory},
	volume = {43},
	issn = {0393-697X, 1826-9850},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1805.11965},
	doi = {10.1007/s40766-020-00004-5},
	abstract = {This article consists of a very short introduction to classical and quantum information theory. Basic properties of the classical Shannon entropy and the quantum von Neumann entropy are described, along with related concepts such as classical and quantum relative entropy, conditional entropy, and mutual information. A few more detailed topics are considered in the quantum case.},
	pages = {187--227},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {La Rivista del Nuovo Cimento},
	shortjournal = {Riv. Nuovo Cim.},
	author = {Witten, Edward},
	urldate = {2022-02-02},
	date = {2020-04},
	eprinttype = {arxiv},
	eprint = {1805.11965},
	keywords = {High Energy Physics - Theory, Quantum Physics},
}

@article{witten_mini-introduction_2020-1,
	title = {A Mini-Introduction To Information Theory},
	volume = {43},
	issn = {0393-697X, 1826-9850},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1805.11965},
	doi = {10.1007/s40766-020-00004-5},
	abstract = {This article consists of a very short introduction to classical and quantum information theory. Basic properties of the classical Shannon entropy and the quantum von Neumann entropy are described, along with related concepts such as classical and quantum relative entropy, conditional entropy, and mutual information. A few more detailed topics are considered in the quantum case.},
	pages = {187--227},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {La Rivista del Nuovo Cimento},
	shortjournal = {Riv. Nuovo Cim.},
	author = {Witten, Edward},
	urldate = {2022-02-02},
	date = {2020-04},
	eprinttype = {arxiv},
	eprint = {1805.11965},
	keywords = {High Energy Physics - Theory, Quantum Physics},
}

@article{koehler_who_2022,
	title = {Who fakes support for the military? Experimental evidence from Tunisia},
	volume = {0},
	issn = {1351-0347},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2022.2032666},
	doi = {10.1080/13510347.2022.2032666},
	shorttitle = {Who fakes support for the military?},
	abstract = {Surveys around the world report exceptionally high levels of support for the military. This is particularly relevant for countries in transition from authoritarian rule to democracy, where militaries can play a vital role for democratic consolidation or autocratic backsliding. Given the sensitive nature of the issue, we suspect that figures indicating strong support for the military are at least partly driven by sensitivity bias. We explore this possibility through list experiments in two nationally representative surveys in Tunisia. We find that misreporting of support for the military in Tunisia is substantial, with respondents overreporting positive attitudes by 40–50 percentage points. Moreover, misreporting is not random, but instead varies systematically by incumbency, with supporters of governing parties misreporting support for the military to a significantly higher degree than opposition supporters or non-voters. Our results suggest that public opinion researchers should be wary of using direct questions to measure support for the military.},
	pages = {1--22},
	number = {0},
	journaltitle = {Democratization},
	author = {Koehler, Kevin and Grewal, Sharan and Albrecht, Holger},
	urldate = {2022-02-01},
	date = {2022-01-31},
	note = {Publisher: Routledge
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2022.2032666},
	keywords = {Military, Tunisia, list experiment, misreporting, trust},
}

@report{kubinec_why_2021,
	title = {Why Corporate Political Connections Can Impede Investment},
	url = {https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/uks25/},
	abstract = {We present an experiment that manipulates corporate political connections to understand whether a company's political influence is a barrier or an inducement to intercorporate investment. Our data come from a survey of 3,329 firm employees and managers located in Venezuela, Ukraine and Egypt. On the whole we find that our respondents do not prefer to invest in companies with political connections. These results are highly conditional on the respondent's company: respondents from highly connected companies prefer to invest in companies with political connections, while respondents at less-connected companies prefer to invest in companies without political connections. We believe that what explains this finding are differences in how companies with and without connections manage liability as our survey data shows connected companies are much more likely to employ informal rather than formal mechanisms to resolve disputes. As a result, we believe that unconnected companies are more likely to invest in other unconnected companies to ensure that their property rights are protected.},
	institution = {{SocArXiv}},
	author = {Kubinec, Robert and Lee, Haillie Na-Kyung and Tomashevskiy, Andrey},
	urldate = {2022-01-27},
	date = {2021-04-21},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.31235/osf.io/uks25},
	note = {type: article},
	keywords = {Comparative Politics, Economics, Egypt, Political Economy, Political Science, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Ukraine, Venezuela, corruption, investment, political connections, political economy},
}

@article{chen_capital_2022,
	title = {Capital Mobility and Taxation: State–Business Collusion in China},
	issn = {0020-8833},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqab096},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqab096},
	shorttitle = {Capital Mobility and Taxation},
	abstract = {Do more mobile firms pay lower taxes? Conventional wisdom argues that capital mobility creates downward pressure on corporate taxes, as firms can threaten to exit. Nevertheless, empirical findings are highly mixed and hard to reconcile, partly due to a lack of data at the microlevel. Using two comprehensive panel data sets with more than 780,000 Chinese firms over two decades, we find that firms with higher shares of mobile capital pay higher effective tax rates. We contend that this counterintuitive finding results from the strategic interaction between firms and governments. Knowing their vulnerability and sunk cost, firms with more fixed assets were more active in protecting themselves by bribing and colluding with local officials. Meanwhile, officials were more willing to seek bribes from these firms in exchange for tax cuts. In contrast, mobile firms were disadvantaged. Although capital mobility may provide additional bargaining power, firms with fixed assets can overcome this advantage through state–business collusion. Our quantitative and qualitative evidence show that fixed firms paid lower taxes in cities with cozy government–business relations. However, such advantages decreased after the launch of anti-corruption campaigns and in cities with higher fiscal transparency.},
	pages = {sqab096},
	journaltitle = {International Studies Quarterly},
	shortjournal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Chen, Ling and Hollenbach, Florian M},
	urldate = {2022-01-27},
	date = {2022-01-24},
}

@article{de_valpine_comparemcmcs_2022,
	title = {{compareMCMCs}: An R package for studying {MCMC} efficiency},
	volume = {7},
	issn = {2475-9066},
	url = {https://joss.theoj.org/papers/10.21105/joss.03844},
	doi = {10.21105/joss.03844},
	shorttitle = {{compareMCMCs}},
	pages = {3844},
	number = {69},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Open Source Software},
	shortjournal = {{JOSS}},
	author = {de Valpine, Perry and Paganin, Sally and Turek, Daniel},
	urldate = {2022-01-26},
	date = {2022-01-14},
	langid = {english},
}

@online{noauthor_emergence_2022,
	title = {The emergence of labor market outsiders among {GCC} citizens},
	url = {https://pomeps.org/the-emergence-of-labor-market-outsiders-among-gcc-citizens},
	abstract = {Steffen Hertog, London School of Economics In 2020, the number of Saudi civil service employees grew by 10,165 to a total size of 1,273,535 individuals. 13,316 employees – a mere 1.04\% of the incumbent stock of civil servants – left the civil service, mostly due to retirement. Adding up the two figures tells us that […]},
	titleaddon = {Project on Middle East Political Science},
	urldate = {2022-01-26},
	date = {2022-01-24},
	langid = {american},
}

@article{jansen_rational_2021,
	title = {A rational model of the Dunning–Kruger effect supports insensitivity to evidence in low performers},
	volume = {5},
	rights = {2021 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01057-0},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-021-01057-0},
	abstract = {Evaluating one’s own performance on a task, typically known as ‘self-assessment’, is perceived as a fundamental skill, but people appear poorly calibrated to their abilities. Studies seem to show poorer calibration for low performers than for high performers, which could indicate worse metacognitive ability among low performers relative to others (the Dunning–Kruger effect). By developing a rational model of self-assessment, we show that such an effect could be produced by two psychological mechanisms, in either isolation or conjunction: influence of prior beliefs about ability or a relation between performance and skill at determining correctness on each problem. To disentangle these explanations, we conducted a large-scale replication of a seminal paper with approximately 4,000 participants in each of two studies. Comparing the predictions of two variants of our rational model provides support for low performers being less able to estimate whether they are correct in the domains of grammar and logical reasoning.},
	pages = {756--763},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Jansen, Rachel A. and Rafferty, Anna N. and Griffiths, Thomas L.},
	urldate = {2022-01-25},
	date = {2021-06},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Bandiera\_abtest: a
Cg\_type: Nature Research Journals
Number: 6
Primary\_atype: Research
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
Subject\_term: Human behaviour
Subject\_term\_id: human-behaviour},
	keywords = {Human behaviour},
}

@article{woldense_what_2022,
	title = {What Happens When Coups Fail? The Problem of Identifying and Weakening the Enemy Within},
	issn = {0010-4140},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140211047402},
	doi = {10.1177/00104140211047402},
	shorttitle = {What Happens When Coups Fail?},
	abstract = {The ruler’s ability to cope with crises is critical for authoritarian durability. Yet, the coping mechanism—the actual management strategies by which rulers confront crises—is largely treated as a black box. This study takes a step in addressing this problem by examining how rulers use their appointment powers to manage the crisis that is the aftermath of failed coups. I argue that the principle challenge of this period is that rulers cannot identify the opposition and to cope, they deliberately infuse the center of the regime with officials from the periphery to dilute and ultimately weaken the invisible enemy they confront. Using a novel dataset on the appointments of mid and high level officials over the course of 34 years in Ethiopia, I find that the ruler relied considerably on outside officials following the failed coup in 1960 in ways he never did before or after the event.},
	pages = {00104140211047402},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	shortjournal = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Woldense, Josef},
	urldate = {2022-01-25},
	date = {2022-01-18},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: {SAGE} Publications Inc},
	keywords = {African politics, bureaucracies, cabinets, networks, non-democratic regimes},
}

@article{chen_polls_2022,
	title = {Polls, Context, and Time: A Dynamic Hierarchical Bayesian Forecasting Model for {US} Senate Elections},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/abs/polls-context-and-time-a-dynamic-hierarchical-bayesian-forecasting-model-for-us-senate-elections/1833074B3BEBC0E36912FBFF3437A974?utm_source=hootsuite&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=PAN_Jan22},
	doi = {10.1017/pan.2021.42},
	shorttitle = {Polls, Context, and Time},
	abstract = {We present a hierarchical Dirichlet regression model with Gaussian process priors that enables accurate and well-calibrated forecasts for U.S. Senate elections at varying time horizons. This Bayesian model provides a balance between predictions based on time-dependent opinion polls and those made based on fundamentals. It also provides uncertainty estimates that arise naturally from historical data on elections and polls. Experiments show that our model is highly accurate and has a well calibrated coverage rate for vote share predictions at various forecasting horizons. We validate the model with a retrospective forecast of the 2018 cycle as well as a true out-of-sample forecast for 2020. We show that our approach achieves state-of-the art accuracy and coverage despite relying on few covariates.},
	pages = {1--21},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Chen, Yehu and Garnett, Roman and Montgomery, Jacob M.},
	urldate = {2022-01-24},
	date = {2022-01-18},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
	keywords = {Bayesian, Gaussian process, elections, forecasts},
}

@article{cheeseman_curse_2021,
	title = {The Curse of Good Intentions: Why Anticorruption Messaging Can Encourage Bribery},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/curse-of-good-intentions-why-anticorruption-messaging-can-encourage-bribery/CE180F511D68B5A4D14904ACFA3728F4},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055421001398},
	shorttitle = {The Curse of Good Intentions},
	abstract = {Awareness-raising messages feature prominently in most anticorruption strategies. Yet, there has been limited systematic research into their efficacy. There is growing concern that anticorruption awareness-raising efforts may be backfiring; instead of encouraging citizens to resist corruption, they may be nudging them to “go with the corrupt grain.” This study offers a first test of the effect of anticorruption messaging on ordinary people’s behavior. A household-level field experiment, conducted with a representative sample in Lagos, Nigeria, is used to test whether exposure to five different messages about (anti)corruption influence the outcome of a “bribery game.” We find that exposure to anticorruption messages largely fails to discourage the decision to bribe, and in some cases it makes individuals more willing to pay a bribe. Importantly, we also find that the effect of anticorruption messaging is conditioned by an individual’s preexisting perceptions regarding the prevalence of corruption.},
	pages = {1--15},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Cheeseman, Nic and Peiffer, Caryn},
	urldate = {2022-01-12},
	date = {2021-12-20},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
}

@article{goldring_purge_2021,
	title = {To Purge or Not to Purge? An Individual-Level Quantitative Analysis of Elite Purges in Dictatorships},
	issn = {0007-1234, 1469-2112},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/to-purge-or-not-to-purge-an-individuallevel-quantitative-analysis-of-elite-purges-in-dictatorships/B2879A96F4E6BE9D6B0AA6DCA9AAF539?utm_source=hootsuite&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=BJPolS_Dec21},
	doi = {10.1017/S0007123421000569},
	shorttitle = {To Purge or Not to Purge?},
	abstract = {Why do dictators purge specific elites but not others? And why do dictators purge these elites in certain ways? Examining these related questions helps us understand not only how dictators retain sufficient competence in their regimes to alleviate popular and foreign threats, but also how dictators nullify elite threats. Dictators are more likely to purge first-generation elites, who are more powerful because they can negotiate their role from a position of strength and possess valuable vertical and horizontal linkages with other elites. Further, dictators tend to imprison purged first-generation elites – rather than execute, exile or simply remove them – to avoid retaliation from other elites or the purged elite continuing to sow discord. We find empirical support for our predictions from novel data on autocratic elites in 16 regimes from 1922 to 2020.},
	pages = {1--19},
	journaltitle = {British Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Goldring, Edward and Matthews, Austin S.},
	urldate = {2022-01-10},
	date = {2021-12-16},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
	keywords = {authoritarian survival, elite purges, purge outcomes},
}

@report{neundorf_recruiting_2021,
	title = {Recruiting Research Participants through Facebook: Assessing Facebook Advertisement Tools},
	url = {https://osf.io/3g74n/},
	shorttitle = {Recruiting Research Participants through Facebook},
	abstract = {The use of paid advertisements on social media, in particular Facebook, to create samples for online survey research is becoming increasingly common. Facebook's promise of unmediated, quick, and cheap access to a large pool of survey takers across the world is especially appealing to comparative political scientists and early career researchers. Yet the design of Facebook's algorithm, geared towards business owners,  complicates the use of Facebook for research purposes. In this paper, we rely on online surveys conducted in the United Kingdom, Turkey, Spain and the Czech Republic to reveal how two tools offered by Facebook, the choice of campaign objectives and the use of demographic targeting, affect the recruitment process, response quality, and sample characteristics. First, we demonstrate that the choice of campaign objectives can help researchers to distinguish survey-takers from link-clickers and scrollers on Facebook. Second, our analysis reveals how the use of targeting tools can produce balanced samples with small increases in the cost. Overall, we argue that balanced, inexpensive, and relatively high-quality samples can be created through Facebook only if researchers choose the right combination of Facebook tools, balancing efficiency gains with attention to the sample characteristics.},
	institution = {{OSF} Preprints},
	author = {Neundorf, Anja and Öztürk, Aykut},
	urldate = {2022-01-09},
	date = {2021-07-26},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.31219/osf.io/3g74n},
	note = {type: article},
	keywords = {Facebook advertisements, Facebook samples, Online surveys, Social and Behavioral Sciences},
}

@article{ansolabehere_does_2014,
	title = {Does Survey Mode Still Matter? Findings from a 2010 Multi-Mode Comparison},
	volume = {22},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/abs/does-survey-mode-still-matter-findings-from-a-2010-multimode-comparison/6AEAD1E6BC0B8674083E33D013DC5052},
	doi = {10.1093/pan/mpt025},
	shorttitle = {Does Survey Mode Still Matter?},
	abstract = {In this article, we present data from a three-mode survey comparison study carried out in 2010. National surveys were fielded at the same time over the Internet (using an opt-in Internet panel), by telephone with live interviews (using a national Random Digit Dialing ({RDD}) sample of landlines and cell phones), and by mail (using a national sample of residential addresses). Each survey utilized a nearly identical questionnaire soliciting information across a range of political and social indicators, many of which can be validated with government data. Comparing the findings from the modes using a Total Survey Error approach, we demonstrate that a carefully executed opt-in Internet panel produces estimates that are as accurate as a telephone survey and that the two modes differ little in their estimates of other political indicators and their correlates.},
	pages = {285--303},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Ansolabehere, Stephen and Schaffner, Brian F.},
	urldate = {2022-01-09},
	date = {2014},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
}

@article{yeager_comparing_2011,
	title = {Comparing the Accuracy of {RDD} Telephone Surveys and Internet Surveys Conducted with Probability and Non-Probability Samples},
	volume = {75},
	issn = {0033-362X},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfr020},
	doi = {10.1093/poq/nfr020},
	abstract = {This study assessed the accuracy of telephone and Internet surveys of probability samples and Internet surveys of non-probability samples of American adults by comparing aggregate survey results against benchmarks. The probability sample surveys were consistently more accurate than the non-probability sample surveys, even after post-stratification with demographics. The non-probability sample survey measurements were much more variable in their accuracy, both across measures within a single survey and across surveys with a single measure. Post-stratification improved the overall accuracy of some of the non-probability sample surveys but decreased the overall accuracy of others. Higher completion and response rates of the surveys were associated with less accuracy. Accuracy did not appear to change from 2004/2005 to 2009 for any of the methods, and these conclusions are reinforced by data collected in 2008 as well. These results are consistent with the conclusion that non-probability samples yield data that are neither as accurate as nor more accurate than data obtained from probability samples.},
	pages = {709--747},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Public Opinion Quarterly},
	shortjournal = {Public Opinion Quarterly},
	author = {Yeager, David S. and Krosnick, Jon A. and Chang, {LinChiat} and Javitz, Harold S. and Levendusky, Matthew S. and Simpser, Alberto and Wang, Rui},
	urldate = {2022-01-09},
	date = {2011-11-01},
}

@article{lueders_electoral_2021,
	title = {Electoral Responsiveness in Closed Autocracies: Evidence from Petitions in the former German Democratic Republic},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/electoral-responsiveness-in-closed-autocracies-evidence-from-petitions-in-the-former-german-democratic-republic/4A5EE12EAE79CA7E93CC5BC4BD2B9C85},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055421001386},
	shorttitle = {Electoral Responsiveness in Closed Autocracies},
	abstract = {Contested elections are usually seen as precondition for constituent responsiveness. By contrast, I show that even uncontested elections can create incentives for autocratic regimes to address citizen demands. I propose that closed autocracies engage in cycles of responsiveness before uncontested elections to assure citizens of their competence and raise popular support. They do so to mitigate the short-term destabilizing effects of elections. Analyzing a unique dataset of petitions to the government of the former German Democratic Republic ({GDR}), I calculate that response times to petitions were up to 31\% shorter before the {GDR}’s uncontested elections. Moreover, I introduce the concept of “substantive responsiveness,” which focuses on the material consequences of responsiveness for petitioners, and show that petitions were 64\% more likely to be successful. The paper advances our understanding of electoral mobilization in closed regimes and contributes to an emerging research agenda on responsiveness and accountability in autocracies.},
	pages = {1--16},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Lueders, Hans},
	urldate = {2022-01-04},
	date = {2021-12-23},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
}

@article{lueders_electoral_2021-1,
	title = {Electoral Responsiveness in Closed Autocracies: Evidence from Petitions in the former German Democratic Republic},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/electoral-responsiveness-in-closed-autocracies-evidence-from-petitions-in-the-former-german-democratic-republic/4A5EE12EAE79CA7E93CC5BC4BD2B9C85},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055421001386},
	shorttitle = {Electoral Responsiveness in Closed Autocracies},
	abstract = {Contested elections are usually seen as precondition for constituent responsiveness. By contrast, I show that even uncontested elections can create incentives for autocratic regimes to address citizen demands. I propose that closed autocracies engage in cycles of responsiveness before uncontested elections to assure citizens of their competence and raise popular support. They do so to mitigate the short-term destabilizing effects of elections. Analyzing a unique dataset of petitions to the government of the former German Democratic Republic ({GDR}), I calculate that response times to petitions were up to 31\% shorter before the {GDR}’s uncontested elections. Moreover, I introduce the concept of “substantive responsiveness,” which focuses on the material consequences of responsiveness for petitioners, and show that petitions were 64\% more likely to be successful. The paper advances our understanding of electoral mobilization in closed regimes and contributes to an emerging research agenda on responsiveness and accountability in autocracies.},
	pages = {1--16},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Lueders, Hans},
	urldate = {2022-01-04},
	date = {2021-12-23},
	langid = {english},
	note = {Publisher: Cambridge University Press},
}

@article{mayshar_origin_2021-1,
	title = {The Origin of the State: Land Productivity or Appropriability?},
	issn = {0022-3808},
	url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/718372},
	doi = {10.1086/718372},
	shorttitle = {The Origin of the State},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Political Economy},
	author = {Mayshar, Joram and Moav, Omer and Pascali, Luigi},
	urldate = {2022-01-02},
	date = {2021-12-01},
	note = {Publisher: The University of Chicago Press},
}

@report{rosenzweig_survey_2020,
	title = {Survey sampling in the Global South using Facebook advertisements},
	url = {https://osf.io/dka8f},
	abstract = {Survey research in the Global South traditionally requires large budgets and lengthy ﬁeldwork, for which researchers hire local enumerators to conduct face-to-face surveys with respondents. However, much of the world’s population is now digitally accessible, oﬀering an opportunity for researchers with limited budgets and those seeking to study settings where inperson contact is impossible, such as natural disasters, violent conﬂicts, and pandemics. In this paper, we evaluate whether Facebook advertising can be used to cost-eﬀectively generate representative survey samples in the Global South. We introduce a framework for evaluating quality in Facebook survey samples, highlighting key trade-oﬀs for researchers considering the platform. We then quota-sample respondents in two countries: Mexico (n=5,168) and Kenya (n=1,452) to evaluate how well these samples perform on a diverse set of survey indicators related to both internal and external validity. We ﬁnd that while the Facebook platform can quickly and cheaply recruit respondents, these samples tend to be more male, more educated, and more urban than the overall national populations. Applying post-stratiﬁcation weighting after oversampling key demographic variables ameliorates, but does not fully overcome, these initial sample imbalances. Our analysis demonstrates the considerable potential of Facebook advertisements to cost-eﬀectively conduct research in diverse global settings.},
	institution = {{SocArXiv}},
	type = {preprint},
	author = {Rosenzweig, Leah R and Bergquist, Parrish and Hoffmann Pham, Katherine and Rampazzo, Francesco and Mildenberger, Matto},
	urldate = {2021-12-30},
	date = {2020-10-15},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.31235/osf.io/dka8f},
}

@article{bau_misallocation_nodate,
	title = {Misallocation and Capital Market Integration: Evidence From India},
	abstract = {We show that foreign capital liberalization reduces capital misallocation and increases aggregate productivity in India. The staggered liberalization of access to foreign capital across disaggregated industries allows us to identify changes in ﬁrms’ input wedges, overcoming major challenges in the measurement of the eﬀects of changing misallocation. For domestic ﬁrms with initially high marginal revenue products of capital ({MRPK}), liberalization increases revenues by 23\%, physical capital by 53\%, wage bills by 28\%, and reduces {MRPK} by 33\% relative to low {MRPK} ﬁrms. There are no eﬀects on low {MRPK} ﬁrms. The eﬀects of liberalization are largest in areas with less developed local banking sectors, indicating that foreign capital partially substitutes for an eﬃcient banking sector. Finally, we develop a novel method to use natural experiments to bound the eﬀect of changes in misallocation on treated industries’ aggregate productivity. Treated industries’ Solow residual increases by 3–16\%.},
	pages = {66},
	author = {Bau, Natalie and Matray, Adrien},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{huber_direct_2022,
	title = {Direct and Indirect Effects based on Changes-in-Changes},
	volume = {40},
	issn = {0735-0015},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2020.1831929},
	doi = {10.1080/07350015.2020.1831929},
	abstract = {We propose a novel approach for causal mediation analysis based on changes-in-changes assumptions restricting unobserved heterogeneity over time. This allows disentangling the causal effect of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome into an indirect effect operating through a binary intermediate variable (called mediator) and a direct effect running via other causal mechanisms. We identify average and quantile direct and indirect effects for various subgroups under the condition that the outcome is monotonic in the unobserved heterogeneity and that the distribution of the latter does not change over time conditional on the treatment and the mediator. We also provide a simulation study and two empirical applications regarding a training program evaluation and maternity leave reform.},
	pages = {432--443},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Business \& Economic Statistics},
	author = {Huber, Martin and Schelker, Mark and Strittmatter, Anthony},
	urldate = {2021-12-29},
	date = {2022-01-02},
	note = {Publisher: Taylor \& Francis
\_eprint: https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2020.1831929},
	keywords = {Causal mechanisms, Changes-in-changes, Direct effects, Indirect effects, Mediation analysis, Treatment effects},
}

@report{noauthor_metaarxiv_nodate,
	title = {{MetaArXiv} Preprints {\textbar} Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty},
	url = {https://osf.io/preprints/metaarxiv/cd5j9/},
	urldate = {2021-04-14},
}

@book{karl_paradox_1997,
	title = {The Paradox of Plenty},
	isbn = {978-0-520-91869-6},
	url = {https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1525/9780520918696/html},
	abstract = {The Paradox of Plenty by Terry Lynn Karl was published on December 31, 1997 by University of California Press.},
	publisher = {University of California Press},
	author = {Karl, Terry Lynn},
	urldate = {2021-07-20},
	date = {1997-12-31},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {rentier},
}

@article{larreguy_parties_nodate,
	title = {Parties, brokers, and voter mobilization: How turnout buying depends upon the party’s capacity to monitor brokers},
	author = {Larreguy, Horacio and Marshall, John and Querubin, Pablo},
}

@report{haber_causal_2021,
	title = {Causal and Associational Linking Language From Observational Research and Health Evaluation Literature in Practice: A systematic language evaluation},
	rights = {© 2021, Posted by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory. This pre-print is available under a Creative Commons License (Attribution-{NonCommercial}-{NoDerivs} 4.0 International), {CC} {BY}-{NC}-{ND} 4.0, as described at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/},
	url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.25.21262631v2},
	shorttitle = {Causal and Associational Linking Language From Observational Research and Health Evaluation Literature in Practice},
	abstract = {Background: Avoiding "causal" language with observational study designs is common publication practice, often justified as being a more cautious approach to interpretation. Objectives: We aimed to i) estimate the degree to which causality was implied by both the language linking exposures to outcomes and by action recommendations in the high-profile health literature, ii) examine disconnects between language and recommendations, iii) identify which linking phrases were most common, and iv) generate estimates by which these phrases imply causality. Methods: We identified 18 of the most prominent general medical/public health/epidemiology journals, and searched and screened for articles published from 2010 to 2019 that investigated exposure/outcome pairs until we reached 65 non-{RCT} articles per journal (n=1,170). Two independent reviewers and an arbitrating reviewer rated the degree to which they believed causality had been implied by the language in abstracts based on written guidance. Reviewers then rated causal implications of linking words in isolation. For comparison, additional review was performed for full texts and for a secondary sample of {RCTs}. Results: Reviewers rated the causal implication of the sentence and phrase linking the exposure and outcome as None (i.e., makes no causal implication) in 13.8\%, Weak in 34.2\%, Moderate in 33.2\%, and Strong in 18.7\% of abstracts. Reviewers identified an action recommendation in 34.2\% of abstracts. Of these action recommendations, reviewers rated the causal implications as None in 5.3\%, Weak in 19.0\%, Moderate in 42.8\% and Strong in 33.0\% of cases. The implied causality of action recommendations was often higher than the implied causality of linking sentences (44.5\%) or commensurate (40.3\%), with 15.3\% being weaker. The most common linking word root identified in abstracts was "associate" (n=535/1,170; 45.7\%) (e.g. "association," "associated," etc). There were only 16 (1.4\%) abstracts using "cause" in the linking or modifying phrases. Reviewer ratings for causal implications of word roots were highly heterogeneous, including those commonly considered non-causal. Discussion: We found substantial disconnects between causal implications used to link an exposure to an outcome and the action implications made. This undercuts common assumptions about what words are often considered non-causal and that policing them eliminates causal implications. We recommend that instead of policing words, editors, researchers, and communicators should increase efforts at making research questions, as well as the potential of studies to answer them, more transparent.},
	pages = {2021.08.25.21262631},
	author = {Haber, Noah A. and Wieten, Sarah E. and Rohrer, Julia M. and Arah, Onyebuchi A. and Tennant, Peter W. G. and Stuart, Elizabeth A. and Murray, Eleanor J. and Pilleron, Sophie and Lam, Sze Tung and Riederer, Emily and Howcutt, Sarah Jane and Simmons, Alison E. and Leyrat, Clemence and Schoenegger, Philipp and Booman, Anna and Dufour, Mi-Suk Kang and O'Donoghue, Ashley L. and Baglini, Rebekah and Do, Stefanie and Takashima, Mari De La Rosa and Evans, Thomas Rhys and Rodriguez-Molina, Daloha and Alsalti, Taym M. and Dunleavy, Daniel J. and Meyerowitz-Katz, Gideon and Antonietti, Alberto and Calvache, Jose A. and Kelson, Mark J. and Salvia, Meg G. and Parra, Camila Olarte and Khalatbari-Soltani, Saman and {McLinden}, Taylor and Chatton, Arthur and Seiler, Jessie and Steriu, Andreea and Alshihayb, Talal S. and Twardowski, Sarah E. and Dabravolskaj, Julia and Au, Eric and Hoopsick, Rachel A. and Suresh, Shashank and Judd, Nicholas and Pena, Sebastian and Axfors, Cathrine and Khan, Palwasha and Aguirre, Ariadne E. Rivera and Odo, Nnaemeka U. and Schmid, Ian and Fox, Matthew P.},
	urldate = {2021-08-31},
	date = {2021-08-30},
	langid = {english},
}

@report{southall_analysis_2021,
	title = {An analysis of school absences in England during the Covid-19 pandemic},
	rights = {© 2021, Posted by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory. This pre-print is available under a Creative Commons License (Attribution 4.0 International), {CC} {BY} 4.0, as described at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/},
	url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.10.21251484v2},
	abstract = {The introduction of {SARS}-{CoV}-2, the virus that causes {COVID}-19 infection, in the {UK} in early 2020, resulted in the {UK} government introducing several control policies in order to reduce the spread of disease. As part of these restrictions, schools were closed to all pupils in March (except for vulnerable and key worker children), before re-opening to certain year groups in June. Finally all school children returned to the classroom in September. In this paper, we analyse the data on school absences from September 2020 to December 2020 as a result of {COVID}-19 infection and how that varied through time as other measures in the community were introduced. We utilise data from the Educational Settings database compiled by the Department for Education and examine how pupil and teacher absences change in both primary and secondary schools.
Our results show that absences as a result of {COVID}-19 infection rose steadily following the re-opening of schools in September. Cases in teachers were seen to decline during the November lockdown, particularly in those regions that had previously been in tier 3, the highest level of control at the time. Cases in secondary school pupils increased for the first two weeks of the November lockdown, before decreasing. Since the introduction of the tier system, the number of absences owing to confirmed infection in primary schools was observed to be significantly lower than in secondary schools across all regions and tiers.
In December, we observed a large rise in the number of absences per school in secondary school settings in the South East and Greater London, but such rises were not observed in other regions or in primary school settings. We conjecture that the increased transmissibility of the new variant in these regions may have contributed to this rise in cases in secondary schools. Finally, we observe a positive correlation between cases in the community and cases in schools in most regions, with weak evidence suggesting that cases in schools lag behind cases in the surrounding community. We conclude that there is not significant evidence to suggest that schools are playing a significant role in driving spread in the community and that careful monitoring may be required as schools re-open to determine the effect associated with open schools upon community incidence.},
	pages = {2021.02.10.21251484},
	author = {Southall, Emma and Holmes, Alex and Hill, Edward M. and Atkins, Benjamin D. and Leng, Trystan and Thompson, Robin N. and Dyson, Louise and Keeling, Matt J. and Tildesley, Michael J.},
	urldate = {2021-08-23},
	date = {2021-02-17},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{raji_ai_2021,
	title = {{AI} and the Everything in the Whole Wide World Benchmark},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2111.15366},
	abstract = {There is a tendency across different subfields in {AI} to valorize a small collection of influential benchmarks. These benchmarks operate as stand-ins for a range of anointed common problems that are frequently framed as foundational milestones on the path towards flexible and generalizable {AI} systems. State-of-the-art performance on these benchmarks is widely understood as indicative of progress towards these long-term goals. In this position paper, we explore the limits of such benchmarks in order to reveal the construct validity issues in their framing as the functionally "general" broad measures of progress they are set up to be.},
	journaltitle = {{arXiv}:2111.15366 [cs]},
	author = {Raji, Inioluwa Deborah and Bender, Emily M. and Paullada, Amandalynne and Denton, Emily and Hanna, Alex},
	urldate = {2021-12-05},
	date = {2021-11-26},
	keywords = {Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Computer Science - Performance},
}

@article{bongers_foundations_2021,
	title = {Foundations of Structural Causal Models with Cycles and Latent Variables},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1611.06221},
	abstract = {Structural causal models ({SCMs}), also known as (nonparametric) structural equation models ({SEMs}), are widely used for causal modeling purposes. In particular, acyclic {SCMs}, also known as recursive {SEMs}, form a well-studied subclass of {SCMs} that generalize causal Bayesian networks to allow for latent confounders. In this paper, we investigate {SCMs} in a more general setting, allowing for the presence of both latent confounders and cycles. We show that in the presence of cycles, many of the convenient properties of acyclic {SCMs} do not hold in general: they do not always have a solution; they do not always induce unique observational, interventional and counterfactual distributions; a marginalization does not always exist, and if it exists the marginal model does not always respect the latent projection; they do not always satisfy a Markov property; and their graphs are not always consistent with their causal semantics. We prove that for {SCMs} in general each of these properties does hold under certain solvability conditions. Our work generalizes results for {SCMs} with cycles that were only known for certain special cases so far. We introduce the class of simple {SCMs} that extends the class of acyclic {SCMs} to the cyclic setting, while preserving many of the convenient properties of acyclic {SCMs}. With this paper we aim to provide the foundations for a general theory of statistical causal modeling with {SCMs}.},
	journaltitle = {{arXiv}:1611.06221 [cs, stat]},
	author = {Bongers, Stephan and Forré, Patrick and Peters, Jonas and Mooij, Joris M.},
	urldate = {2021-11-16},
	date = {2021-05-10},
	keywords = {62A09, 68T30 (Primary) 68T37 (Secondary), Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Statistics - Methodology},
}

@article{fellows_covid-19_2020,
	title = {The {COVID}-19 Pandemic, Community Mobility and the Effectiveness of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions: The United States of America, February to May 2020},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.12644},
	shorttitle = {The {COVID}-19 Pandemic, Community Mobility and the Effectiveness of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions},
	abstract = {Background: The impact of individual non-pharmaceutical interventions ({NPI}) such as state-wide stay-at-home orders, school closures and gathering size limitations, on the {COVID}-19 epidemic is unknown. Understanding the impact that above listed {NPI} have on disease transmission is critical for policy makers, particularly as case counts increase again in some areas. Methods: Using a Bayesian framework, we reconstructed the incidence and time-varying reproductive number (Rt) curves to investigate the relationship between Rt, individual mobility as measured by Google Community Mobility Reports, and {NPI}. Results: We found a strong relationship between reproductive number and mobility, with each 10\% drop in mobility being associated with an expected 10.2\% reduction in Rt compared to baseline. The effects of limitations on the size of gatherings, school and business closures, and stay-at-home orders were dominated by the trend over time, which was associated with a 48\% decrease in the reproductive number, adjusting for the {NPI}. Conclusions: We found that the decrease in mobility associated with time may be due to individuals changing their behavior in response to perceived risk or external factors.},
	journaltitle = {{arXiv}:2007.12644 [q-bio, stat]},
	author = {Fellows, Ian E. and Slayton, Rachel B. and Hakim, Avi J.},
	urldate = {2021-08-30},
	date = {2020-07-09},
	keywords = {Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution, Statistics - Applications},
}

@article{scheuerman_datasets_2021,
	title = {Do Datasets Have Politics? Disciplinary Values in Computer Vision Dataset Development},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2108.04308},
	doi = {10.1145/3476058},
	shorttitle = {Do Datasets Have Politics?},
	abstract = {Data is a crucial component of machine learning. The field is reliant on data to train, validate, and test models. With increased technical capabilities, machine learning research has boomed in both academic and industry settings, and one major focus has been on computer vision. Computer vision is a popular domain of machine learning increasingly pertinent to real-world applications, from facial recognition in policing to object detection for autonomous vehicles. Given computer vision's propensity to shape machine learning research and impact human life, we seek to understand disciplinary practices around dataset documentation - how data is collected, curated, annotated, and packaged into datasets for computer vision researchers and practitioners to use for model tuning and development. Specifically, we examine what dataset documentation communicates about the underlying values of vision data and the larger practices and goals of computer vision as a field. To conduct this study, we collected a corpus of about 500 computer vision datasets, from which we sampled 114 dataset publications across different vision tasks. Through both a structured and thematic content analysis, we document a number of values around accepted data practices, what makes desirable data, and the treatment of humans in the dataset construction process. We discuss how computer vision datasets authors value efficiency at the expense of care; universality at the expense of contextuality; impartiality at the expense of positionality; and model work at the expense of data work. Many of the silenced values we identify sit in opposition with social computing practices. We conclude with suggestions on how to better incorporate silenced values into the dataset creation and curation process.},
	journaltitle = {{arXiv}:2108.04308 [cs]},
	author = {Scheuerman, Morgan Klaus and Denton, Emily and Hanna, Alex},
	urldate = {2021-08-16},
	date = {2021-08-09},
	keywords = {Computer Science - Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, Computer Science - Human-Computer Interaction},
}

@article{scheuerman_datasets_2021-1,
	title = {Do Datasets Have Politics? Disciplinary Values in Computer Vision Dataset Development},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2108.04308},
	doi = {10.1145/3476058},
	shorttitle = {Do Datasets Have Politics?},
	abstract = {Data is a crucial component of machine learning. The field is reliant on data to train, validate, and test models. With increased technical capabilities, machine learning research has boomed in both academic and industry settings, and one major focus has been on computer vision. Computer vision is a popular domain of machine learning increasingly pertinent to real-world applications, from facial recognition in policing to object detection for autonomous vehicles. Given computer vision's propensity to shape machine learning research and impact human life, we seek to understand disciplinary practices around dataset documentation - how data is collected, curated, annotated, and packaged into datasets for computer vision researchers and practitioners to use for model tuning and development. Specifically, we examine what dataset documentation communicates about the underlying values of vision data and the larger practices and goals of computer vision as a field. To conduct this study, we collected a corpus of about 500 computer vision datasets, from which we sampled 114 dataset publications across different vision tasks. Through both a structured and thematic content analysis, we document a number of values around accepted data practices, what makes desirable data, and the treatment of humans in the dataset construction process. We discuss how computer vision datasets authors value efficiency at the expense of care; universality at the expense of contextuality; impartiality at the expense of positionality; and model work at the expense of data work. Many of the silenced values we identify sit in opposition with social computing practices. We conclude with suggestions on how to better incorporate silenced values into the dataset creation and curation process.},
	journaltitle = {{arXiv}:2108.04308 [cs]},
	author = {Scheuerman, Morgan Klaus and Denton, Emily and Hanna, Alex},
	urldate = {2021-08-16},
	date = {2021-08-09},
	keywords = {Computer Science - Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition, Computer Science - Human-Computer Interaction},
}

@article{zhang_pathfinder_2021,
	title = {Pathfinder: Parallel quasi-Newton variational inference},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2108.03782},
	shorttitle = {Pathfinder},
	abstract = {We introduce Pathfinder, a variational method for approximately sampling from differentiable log densities. Starting from a random initialization, Pathfinder locates normal approximations to the target density along a quasi-Newton optimization path, with local covariance estimated using the inverse Hessian estimates produced by the optimizer. Pathfinder returns draws from the approximation with the lowest estimated Kullback-Leibler ({KL}) divergence to the true posterior. We evaluate Pathfinder on a wide range of posterior distributions, demonstrating that its approximate draws are better than those from automatic differentiation variational inference ({ADVI}) and comparable to those produced by short chains of dynamic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo ({HMC}), as measured by 1-Wasserstein distance. Compared to {ADVI} and short dynamic {HMC} runs, Pathfinder requires one to two orders of magnitude fewer log density and gradient evaluations, with greater reductions for more challenging posteriors. Importance resampling over multiple runs of Pathfinder improves the diversity of approximate draws, reducing 1-Wasserstein distance further and providing a measure of robustness to optimization failures on plateaus, saddle points, or in minor modes. The Monte Carlo {KL}-divergence estimates are embarrassingly parallelizable in the core Pathfinder algorithm, as are multiple runs in the resampling version, further increasing Pathfinder's speed advantage with multiple cores.},
	journaltitle = {{arXiv}:2108.03782 [cs, stat]},
	author = {Zhang, Lu and Carpenter, Bob and Gelman, Andrew and Vehtari, Aki},
	urldate = {2021-08-12},
	date = {2021-08-08},
	keywords = {Bayesian, Computer Science - Machine Learning, {MCMC}, Stan, Statistics - Machine Learning},
}

@article{roth_when_2021,
	title = {When Is Parallel Trends Sensitive to Functional Form?},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2010.04814},
	abstract = {This paper assesses when the validity of diﬀerence-in-diﬀerences and related estimators depends on functional form. We provide a novel characterization: the parallel trends assumption holds under all strictly monotonic transformations of the outcome if and only if a stronger “parallel trends”-type condition holds for the cumulative distribution function of untreated potential outcomes. This condition is satisﬁed if and essentially only if the population can be partitioned into a subgroup for which treatment is eﬀectively randomly assigned and a remaining subgroup for which the distribution of untreated potential outcomes is stable over time. We show further that it is impossible to construct any estimator that is consistent (or unbiased) for the average treatment eﬀect on the treated ({ATT}) without either imposing functional form restrictions or imposing assumptions that identify the full distribution of untreated potential outcomes. Our results suggest that researchers who wish to point-identify the {ATT} should justify one of the following: (i) why treatment is as-if randomly assigned, (ii) why the chosen functional form is correct at the exclusion of others, or (iii) a method for inferring the entire counterfactual distribution of untreated potential outcomes.},
	journaltitle = {{arXiv}:2010.04814 [econ, stat]},
	author = {Roth, Jonathan and Sant'Anna, Pedro H. C.},
	urldate = {2021-04-27},
	date = {2021-01-28},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Economics - Econometrics, Statistics - Methodology},
}

@article{belletti_embarrassingly_2015,
	title = {Embarrassingly Parallel Time Series Analysis for Large Scale Weak Memory Systems},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1511.06493},
	abstract = {Second order stationary models in time series analysis are based on the analysis of essential statistics whose computations follow a common pattern. In particular, with a map-reduce nomenclature, most of these operations can be modeled as mapping a kernel that only depends on short windows of consecutive data and reducing the results produced by each computation. This computational pattern stems from the ergodicity of the model under consideration and is often referred to as weak or short memory when it comes to data indexed with respect to time. In the following we will show how studying weak memory systems can be done in a scalable manner thanks to a framework relying on specifically designed overlapping distributed data structures that enable fragmentation and replication of the data across many machines as well as parallelism in computations. This scheme has been implemented for Apache Spark but is certainly not system specific. Indeed we prove it is also adapted to leveraging high bandwidth fragmented memory blocks on {GPUs}.},
	journaltitle = {{arXiv}:1511.06493 [cs]},
	author = {Belletti, Francois and Sparks, Evan and Franklin, Michael and Bayen, Alexandre M.},
	urldate = {2021-04-08},
	date = {2015-11-20},
	keywords = {68M14, 37M10, 62M10, Computer Science - Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing},
}

@article{duck-mayr_gpirt_2020,
	title = {{GPIRT}: A Gaussian Process Model for Item Response Theory},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.09900},
	shorttitle = {{GPIRT}},
	abstract = {The goal of item response theoretic ({IRT}) models is to provide estimates of latent traits from binary observed indicators and at the same time to learn the item response functions ({IRFs}) that map from latent trait to observed response. However, in many cases observed behavior can deviate significantly from the parametric assumptions of traditional {IRT} models. Nonparametric {IRT} models overcome these challenges by relaxing assumptions about the form of the {IRFs}, but standard tools are unable to simultaneously estimate flexible {IRFs} and recover ability estimates for respondents. We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model that solves this problem by placing Gaussian process priors on the latent functions defining the {IRFs}. This allows us to simultaneously relax assumptions about the shape of the {IRFs} while preserving the ability to estimate latent traits. This in turn allows us to easily extend the model to further tasks such as active learning. {GPIRT} therefore provides a simple and intuitive solution to several longstanding problems in the {IRT} literature.},
	journaltitle = {{arXiv}:2006.09900 [cs, stat]},
	author = {Duck-Mayr, {JBrandon} and Garnett, Roman and Montgomery, Jacob M.},
	urldate = {2021-03-23},
	date = {2020-06-17},
	keywords = {Computer Science - Machine Learning, Statistics - Machine Learning},
}

@article{grinsztajn_bayesian_2021,
	title = {Bayesian workflow for disease transmission modeling in Stan},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.02985},
	abstract = {This tutorial shows how to build, fit, and criticize disease transmission models in Stan, and should be useful to researchers interested in modeling the {SARS}-{CoV}-2 pandemic and other infectious diseases in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian modeling provides a principled way to quantify uncertainty and incorporate both data and prior knowledge into the model estimates. Stan is an expressive probabilistic programming language that abstracts the inference and allows users to focus on the modeling. As a result, Stan code is readable and easily extensible, which makes the modeler's work more transparent. Furthermore, Stan's main inference engine, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling, is amiable to diagnostics, which means the user can verify whether the obtained inference is reliable. In this tutorial, we demonstrate how to formulate, fit, and diagnose a compartmental transmission model in Stan, first with a simple Susceptible-Infected-Recovered ({SIR}) model, then with a more elaborate transmission model used during the {SARS}-{CoV}-2 pandemic. We also cover advanced topics which can further help practitioners fit sophisticated models; notably, how to use simulations to probe the model and priors, and computational techniques to scale-up models based on ordinary differential equations.},
	journaltitle = {{arXiv}:2006.02985 [q-bio, stat]},
	author = {Grinsztajn, Léo and Semenova, Elizaveta and Margossian, Charles C. and Riou, Julien},
	urldate = {2021-02-10},
	date = {2021-02-04},
	keywords = {Quantitative Biology - Quantitative Methods, Statistics - Applications, Statistics - Computation},
}

@article{grinsztajn_bayesian_2021,
	title = {Bayesian workflow for disease transmission modeling in Stan},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2006.02985},
	abstract = {This tutorial shows how to build, fit, and criticize disease transmission models in Stan, and should be useful to researchers interested in modeling the {SARS}-{CoV}-2 pandemic and other infectious diseases in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian modeling provides a principled way to quantify uncertainty and incorporate both data and prior knowledge into the model estimates. Stan is an expressive probabilistic programming language that abstracts the inference and allows users to focus on the modeling. As a result, Stan code is readable and easily extensible, which makes the modeler's work more transparent. Furthermore, Stan's main inference engine, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling, is amiable to diagnostics, which means the user can verify whether the obtained inference is reliable. In this tutorial, we demonstrate how to formulate, fit, and diagnose a compartmental transmission model in Stan, first with a simple Susceptible-Infected-Recovered ({SIR}) model, then with a more elaborate transmission model used during the {SARS}-{CoV}-2 pandemic. We also cover advanced topics which can further help practitioners fit sophisticated models; notably, how to use simulations to probe the model and priors, and computational techniques to scale-up models based on ordinary differential equations.},
	journaltitle = {{arXiv}:2006.02985 [q-bio, stat]},
	author = {Grinsztajn, Léo and Semenova, Elizaveta and Margossian, Charles C. and Riou, Julien},
	urldate = {2021-02-10},
	date = {2021-02-04},
	keywords = {Quantitative Biology - Quantitative Methods, Statistics - Applications, Statistics - Computation},
}

@article{sharma_how_2020,
	title = {How Robust are the Estimated Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions against {COVID}-19?},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/2007.13454},
	abstract = {To what extent are effectiveness estimates of nonpharmaceutical interventions ({NPIs}) against {COVID}-19 influenced by the assumptions our models make? To answer this question, we investigate 2 state-of-the-art {NPI} effectiveness models and propose 6 variants that make different structural assumptions. In particular, we investigate how well {NPI} effectiveness estimates generalise to unseen countries, and their sensitivity to unobserved factors. Models that account for noise in disease transmission compare favourably. We further evaluate how robust estimates are to different choices of epidemiological parameters and data. Focusing on models that assume transmission noise, we find that previously published results are remarkably robust across these variables. Finally, we mathematically ground the interpretation of {NPI} effectiveness estimates when certain common assumptions do not hold.},
	journaltitle = {{arXiv}:2007.13454 [cs, q-bio, stat]},
	author = {Sharma, Mrinank and Mindermann, Sören and Brauner, Jan Markus and Leech, Gavin and Stephenson, Anna B. and Gavenčiak, Tomáš and Kulveit, Jan and Teh, Yee Whye and Chindelevitch, Leonid and Gal, Yarin},
	urldate = {2021-01-29},
	date = {2020-12-20},
	keywords = {Computer Science - Machine Learning, Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution, Quantitative Biology - Quantitative Methods, Statistics - Applications, Statistics - Machine Learning},
}

@article{imai_causal_2010,
	title = {Causal Inference with Differential Measurement Error: Nonparametric Identification and Sensitivity Analysis},
	volume = {54},
	issn = {1540-5907},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00446.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00446.x},
	shorttitle = {Causal Inference with Differential Measurement Error},
	abstract = {Political scientists have long been concerned about the validity of survey measurements. Although many have studied classical measurement error in linear regression models where the error is assumed to arise completely at random, in a number of situations the error may be correlated with the outcome. We analyze the impact of differential measurement error on causal estimation. The proposed nonparametric identification analysis avoids arbitrary modeling decisions and formally characterizes the roles of different assumptions. We show the serious consequences of differential misclassification and offer a new sensitivity analysis that allows researchers to evaluate the robustness of their conclusions. Our methods are motivated by a field experiment on democratic deliberations, in which one set of estimates potentially suffers from differential misclassification. We show that an analysis ignoring differential measurement error may considerably overestimate the causal effects. This finding contrasts with the case of classical measurement error, which always yields attenuation bias.},
	pages = {543--560},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Imai, Kosuke and Yamamoto, Teppei},
	urldate = {2021-11-03},
	date = {2010},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{ross_closer_2006,
	title = {A Closer Look at Oil, Diamonds, and Civil War},
	volume = {9},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.9.081304.161338},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev.polisci.9.081304.161338},
	abstract = {Studies of natural resource wealth and civil war have been hampered by measurement error, endogeneity, lack of robustness, and uncertainty about causal mechanisms. This paper develops new measures and new tests to address these problems. It has four main findings. First, the likelihood of civil war in countries that produce oil, gas, and diamonds rose sharply from the early 1970s to the late 1990s; so did the number of rebel groups that sold contraband to raise money. Second, exogenous measures of oil, gas, and diamond wealth are robustly correlated with the onset of civil war. Still, these correlations are based on a small number of cases, and the substantive effects of resource wealth are sensitive to certain assumptions. Third, petroleum and diamond production lead to civil wars through at least three different mechanisms. Finally, the only resource variable robustly linked to conflict duration is a measure of “contraband,” which includes gemstones, timber, and narcotics.},
	pages = {265--300},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Ross, Michael},
	urldate = {2021-07-20},
	date = {2006},
}

@article{kato_does_2019,
	title = {Does taxation lose its role in contemporary democratisation? State revenue production revisited in the third wave of democratisation},
	volume = {58},
	issn = {1475-6765},
	url = {https://ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1475-6765.12276},
	doi = {10.1111/1475-6765.12276},
	shorttitle = {Does taxation lose its role in contemporary democratisation?},
	abstract = {Echoing the call for ‘no taxation without representation’, the development of modern taxation went hand-in-hand with Western democratisation. However, taxation appears to have lost its role in the third wave of democratisation. Unlike early democratisers, contemporary autocracies tend to introduce a ready-made modern taxation system before democratisation. With advice from international organisations, the value added tax ({VAT}), which mature democracies innovated, has been adopted for economic adjustment and development in globalised markets. Despite these divergences, it is argued in this article that a fundamental relationship between taxation and representation remains. Taxation inherently involves a social contract between revenue-seeking rulers and citizens, and thus involves their bargaining over representation. Therefore, the production of state revenue intervenes in contemporary democratisation as well. By factoring in the effect of the {VAT} in 143 developing countries between 1960 and 2007, an entropy-balancing analysis has confirmed its important role in contemporary democratisation. The taxation-democratisation linkage has travelled from early to contemporary democratisation.},
	pages = {184--208},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {European Journal of Political Research},
	author = {Kato, Junko and Tanaka, Seiki},
	urldate = {2021-07-20},
	date = {2019},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {democratisation, equality, globalisation, taxation, value added tax ({VAT})},
}

@article{seidl_small_2016,
	title = {Small beetle, large-scale drivers: how regional and landscape factors affect outbreaks of the European spruce bark beetle},
	volume = {53},
	issn = {1365-2664},
	url = {https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1365-2664.12540},
	doi = {10.1111/1365-2664.12540},
	shorttitle = {Small beetle, large-scale drivers},
	abstract = {Unprecedented bark beetle outbreaks have been observed for a variety of forest ecosystems recently, and damage is expected to further intensify as a consequence of climate change. In Central Europe, the response of ecosystem management to increasing infestation risk has hitherto focused largely on the stand level, while the contingency of outbreak dynamics on large-scale drivers remains poorly understood. To investigate how factors beyond the local scale contribute to the infestation risk from Ips typographus (Col., Scol.), we analysed drivers across seven orders of magnitude in scale (from 103 to 1010 m²) over a 23-year period, focusing on the Bavarian Forest National Park. Time-discrete hazard modelling was used to account for local factors and temporal dependencies. Subsequently, beta regression was applied to determine the influence of regional and landscape factors, the latter characterized by means of graph theory. We found that in addition to stand variables, large-scale drivers also strongly influenced bark beetle infestation risk. Outbreak waves were closely related to landscape-scale connectedness of both host and beetle populations as well as to regional bark beetle infestation levels. Furthermore, regional summer drought was identified as an important trigger for infestation pulses. Large-scale synchrony and connectivity are thus key drivers of the recently observed bark beetle outbreak in the area. Synthesis and applications. Our multiscale analysis provides evidence that the risk for biotic disturbances is highly dependent on drivers beyond the control of traditional stand-scale management. This finding highlights the importance of fostering the ability to cope with and recover from disturbance. It furthermore suggests that a stronger consideration of landscape and regional processes is needed to address changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management.},
	pages = {530--540},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Applied Ecology},
	author = {Seidl, Rupert and Müller, Jörg and Hothorn, Torsten and Bässler, Claus and Heurich, Marco and Kautz, Markus},
	urldate = {2021-06-30},
	date = {2016},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Bavarian Forest National Park, Ips typographus, Picea abies, bark beetle infestation risk, beta regression, forest disturbance dynamics, graph theory, landscape connectivity, large-scale control, multiscale analysis, spatial synchrony},
}

@article{turner_particle_2014,
	title = {Particle size distribution and optimal capture of aqueous macrobial {eDNA}},
	volume = {5},
	issn = {2041-210X},
	url = {https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/2041-210X.12206},
	doi = {10.1111/2041-210X.12206},
	abstract = {Using environmental {DNA} ({eDNA}) to detect aquatic macroorganisms is a new survey method with broad applicability. However, the origin, state and fate of aqueous macrobial {eDNA} – which collectively determine how well {eDNA} can serve as a proxy for directly observing organisms and how {eDNA} should be captured, purified and assayed – are poorly understood. The size of aquatic particles provides clues about their origin, state and fate. We used sequential filtration size fractionation to measure the particle size distribution ({PSD}) of macrobial {eDNA}, specifically Common Carp (hereafter referred to as Carp) {eDNA}. We compared it to the {PSDs} of total {eDNA} (from all organisms) and suspended particle matter ({SPM}). We quantified Carp mitochondrial {eDNA} using a custom {qPCR} assay, total {eDNA} with fluorometry and {SPM} with gravimetric analysis. In a lake and a pond, we found Carp {eDNA} in particles from {\textgreater}180 to {\textless}0·2 μm, but it was most abundant from 1 to 10 μm. Total {eDNA} was most abundant below 0·2 μm, and {SPM} was most abundant above 100 μm. {SPM} consisted of ≤0·1\% total {eDNA}, and total {eDNA} consisted of ≤0·0004\% Carp {eDNA}. 0·2 μm filtration maximized Carp {eDNA} capture (85\% ± 6\%) while minimizing total (i.e. non-target) {eDNA} capture (48\% ± 3\%), but filter clogging limited this pore size to a sample volume {\textless}250 {mL}. To mitigate this limitation, we estimated a continuous {PSD} model for Carp {eDNA} and derived an equation for calculating isoclines of pore size and water volume that yield equivalent amounts of Carp {eDNA}. Our results suggest that aqueous macrobial {eDNA} predominantly exists inside mitochondria or cells, and that settling may therefore play an important role in its fate. For optimal {eDNA} capture, we recommend 0·2 μm filtration or a combination of larger pore size and water volume that exceeds the 0·2 μm isocline. In situ filtration of large volumes could maximize detection probability when surveying large habitats for rare organisms. Our method for {eDNA} particle size analysis enables future research to compare the {PSDs} of {eDNA} from other organisms and environments, and to easily apply them for ecological monitoring.},
	pages = {676--684},
	number = {7},
	journaltitle = {Methods in Ecology and Evolution},
	author = {Turner, Cameron R. and Barnes, Matthew A. and Xu, Charles C. Y. and Jones, Stuart E. and Jerde, Christopher L. and Lodge, David M.},
	urldate = {2021-06-30},
	date = {2014},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {aquatic ecosystems, beta regression, ecological monitoring, environmental {DNA}, genetic monitoring, particle size analysis, rare species, sampling methods},
}

@article{ferrier_using_2007,
	title = {Using generalized dissimilarity modelling to analyse and predict patterns of beta diversity in regional biodiversity assessment},
	volume = {13},
	issn = {1472-4642},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2007.00341.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1472-4642.2007.00341.x},
	abstract = {Generalized dissimilarity modelling ({GDM}) is a statistical technique for analysing and predicting spatial patterns of turnover in community composition (beta diversity) across large regions. The approach is an extension of matrix regression, designed specifically to accommodate two types of nonlinearity commonly encountered in large-scaled ecological data sets: (1) the curvilinear relationship between increasing ecological distance, and observed compositional dissimilarity, between sites; and (2) the variation in the rate of compositional turnover at different positions along environmental gradients. {GDM} can be further adapted to accommodate special types of biological and environmental data including, for example, information on phylogenetic relationships between species and information on barriers to dispersal between geographical locations. The approach can be applied to a wide range of assessment activities including visualization of spatial patterns in community composition, constrained environmental classification, distributional modelling of species or community types, survey gap analysis, conservation assessment, and climate-change impact assessment.},
	pages = {252--264},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Diversity and Distributions},
	author = {Ferrier, Simon and Manion, Glenn and Elith, Jane and Richardson, Karen},
	urldate = {2021-06-30},
	date = {2007},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Beta diversity, beta regression, biodiversity, compositional turnover, conservation assessment, generalized dissimilarity modelling},
}

@article{ross_what_2015,
	title = {What Have We Learned about the Resource Curse?},
	volume = {18},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-polisci-052213-040359},
	abstract = {Since 2001, hundreds of academic studies have examined the “political resource curse,” meaning the claim that natural resource wealth tends to adversely affect a country's governance. There is now robust evidence that one type of mineral wealth, petroleum, has at least three harmful effects: It tends to make authoritarian regimes more durable, to increase certain types of corruption, and to help trigger violent conflict in low- and middle-income countries. Scholars have also made progress toward understanding the mechanisms that lead to these outcomes and the conditions that make them more likely. This essay reviews the evidence behind these claims, the debates over their validity, and some of the unresolved puzzles for future research.},
	pages = {239--259},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Ross, Michael},
	urldate = {2021-06-28},
	date = {2015},
}

@article{papke_econometric_1996,
	title = {Econometric methods for fractional response variables with an application to 401(k) plan participation rates},
	volume = {11},
	issn = {1099-1255},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/%28SICI%291099-1255%28199611%2911%3A6%3C619%3A%3AAID-JAE418%3E3.0.CO%3B2-1},
	doi = {10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199611)11:6<619::AID-JAE418>3.0.CO;2-1},
	abstract = {We develop attractive functional forms and simple quasi-likelihood estimation methods for regression models with a fractional dependent variable. Compared with log-odds type procedures, there is no difficulty in recovering the regression function for the fractional variable, and there is no need to use ad hoc transformations to handle data at the extreme values of zero and one. We also offer some new, robust specification tests by nesting the logit or probit function in a more general functional form. We apply these methods to a data set of employee participation rates in 401(k) pension plans.},
	pages = {619--632},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Applied Econometrics},
	author = {Papke, Leslie E. and Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.},
	urldate = {2021-06-14},
	date = {1996},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{ramalho_alternative_2011,
	title = {Alternative Estimating and Testing Empirical Strategies for Fractional Regression Models},
	volume = {25},
	rights = {© 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
	issn = {1467-6419},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-6419.2009.00602.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1467-6419.2009.00602.x},
	abstract = {In many economic settings, the variable of interest is often a fraction or a proportion, being defined only on the unit interval. The bounded nature of such variables and, in some cases, the possibility of nontrivial probability mass accumulating at one or both boundaries raise some interesting estimation and inference issues. In this paper we (i) provide a comprehensive survey of the main alternative models and estimation methods suitable to deal with fractional response variables, (ii) propose a full testing methodology to assess the validity of the assumptions required by each alternative estimator and (iii) examine the finite-sample properties of most of the estimators and tests discussed through an extensive Monte Carlo study. An application concerning corporate capital structure choices is also provided.},
	pages = {19--68},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Economic Surveys},
	author = {Ramalho, Esmeralda A. and Ramalho, Joaquim J. S. and Murteira, José M. R.},
	urldate = {2021-06-14},
	date = {2011},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Conditional mean tests, Fractional regression models, Non-nested hypotheses, Two-part models, Zero outcomes, fractional logit},
}

@article{murray_identifying_nodate,
	title = {Identifying factors associated with the issuance of coronavirus-related stay-at-home orders in the Middle East and North Africa Region},
	volume = {n/a},
	rights = {© 2021 Policy Studies Organization},
	issn = {1948-4682},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wmh3.444},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wmh3.444},
	abstract = {The {COVID}-19 pandemic has not spared the Middle East and North Africa ({MENA}) Region. {MENA} is one of the most politically, socially, and economically heterogeneous regions in the world, a characteristic reflected in its governments' responses to {COVID}-19. About two-thirds of these governments issued coronavirus-related stay-at-home orders ({SAHOs}), one of the most effective tools public health officials have for slowing the spread of infectious diseases. While {SAHOs} are very effective in terms of countering infectious diseases, they are extremely disruptive in nonhealth domains. The objective of this study is to identify reliable factors related to health care policy making that shaped the decisions of {MENA} governments to issue a {SAHO} or not in response to {COVID}-19. The results identify specific political, social, and medical factors that played important roles and provide a look at early government responses to a global health crisis in a heterogeneous region of the world.},
	issue = {n/a},
	journaltitle = {World Medical \& Health Policy},
	author = {Murray, Gregg R. and Jilani-Hyler, Nadia},
	urldate = {2021-06-03},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, {MENA}, coronavirus, lockdowns, pandemic, policy diffusion, public health, stay-at-home orders},
}

@article{jiang_cleaning_nodate,
	title = {Cleaning House Before Hosting New Guests: A Political Path Dependence Model of Political Connection Adaptation in the Aftermath of Anticorruption Shocks},
	volume = {n/a},
	rights = {This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
	issn = {1097-0266},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/smj.3315},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.3315},
	shorttitle = {Cleaning House Before Hosting New Guests},
	abstract = {Research Summary We develop a political path dependence model that integrates the network embeddedness perspective and the literature on corporate political strategy to understand how firms adapt their political connections when anticorruption efforts lead to the turnover of government officials. We posit that although firms that have close associations with ousted corrupt officials can benefit from both removing existing political connections (“cleaning house”) and developing new connections with their successors (“hosting new guests”), political path dependence enables firms to do the former but constrains them from doing the latter. These effects are magnified when firms are highly dependent on the government, and when the ousted corrupt officials have great political power. Evidence from anticorruption campaigns in China between 2012 and 2018 lends support for our theoretical predictions. Managerial Summary It is common for firms to strive to stay connected with government officials. Of interest is, when political power shifts, can firms “update” their connections by severing ties with politicians who fall out of power and building new ones? Our political path dependent model demonstrates that it may not be a symmetric process. After the downfall and replacements of public officials due to corruption indictments, firms that are more closely associated with ousted, corrupt officials will indeed be more motivated and able to remove existing connections. However, the successors of ousted officials will more likely distance themselves from these firms, thereby undermining the firms’ abilities to build new connections with them. Empirical evidence from anticorruption campaigns in China between 2012 and 2018 supports our predictions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.},
	issue = {n/a},
	journaltitle = {Strategic Management Journal},
	author = {Jiang, Han and Jia, Nan and Bai, Tao and Bruton, Garry D.},
	urldate = {2021-06-03},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{schofield_robustness_nodate,
	title = {On the robustness of latent class models for diagnostic testing with no gold standard},
	volume = {n/a},
	rights = {© 2021 John Wiley \& Sons Ltd. This article has been contributed to by {US} Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the {USA}.},
	issn = {1097-0258},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/sim.8999},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.8999},
	abstract = {It is difficult to estimate sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests when there is no gold standard. Latent class models have been proposed as a potential solution as they provide estimates without the need for a gold standard. Using a motivating example of the evaluation of point of care tests for leptospirosis in Tanzania, we show how a realistic violation of assumptions underpinning the latent class model can lead directly to substantial bias in the estimates of the parameters of interest. In particular, we consider the robustness of estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and prevalence, to the presence of additional latent states when fitting a two-state latent class model. The violation is minor in the sense that it cannot be routinely detected with goodness-of-fit procedures, but is major with regard to the resulting bias.},
	issue = {n/a},
	journaltitle = {Statistics in Medicine},
	author = {Schofield, Matthew R. and Maze, Michael J. and Crump, John A. and Rubach, Matthew P. and Galloway, Renee and Sharples, Katrina J.},
	urldate = {2021-05-20},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Bayes, leptospirosis, model sensitivity, sensitivity, specificity},
}

@article{tsai_collusion_nodate,
	title = {Collusion, political connection, and tax avoidance in China},
	volume = {n/a},
	rights = {© 2021 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.},
	issn = {1467-6435},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/kykl.12265},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12265},
	abstract = {Our paper is the first to examine the impact of government-firm collusion on firm tax avoidance in China by applying an instrumental variable approach. We take political turnover of local leaders as an external shock to the existing collusion and investigate firms' tax avoidance activities during local leadership transition. By using data on political turnover of prefectural leaders and listed firms from 2007 to 2014, we find that political turnover leads to the instability of existing collusion, and consequently a decrease in firm tax avoidance. This provides evidence of the pre-existing collusion between government and firms. We then rule out the possibility that such change is driven by the effect of political uncertainty or tax competition by considering the heterogeneous effect of firms and cities. Finally, we show that firms' political connections, captured by political ties and ownership of firms, stabilize the existing collusion and help firms maintain their advantage while facing external political shocks.},
	issue = {n/a},
	journaltitle = {Kyklos},
	author = {Tsai, Pi-Han and Liu, Yongzheng and Liu, Xin},
	urldate = {2021-05-20},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {collusion, political connection, political turnover, tax avoidance},
}

@article{gulzar_who_2021,
	title = {Who Enters Politics and Why?},
	volume = {24},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051418-051214},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-polisci-051418-051214},
	abstract = {Despite the importance of politicians, empirical work rarely examines who decides to enter politics and why. This survey presents conceptual issues in measuring political entry; reviews work on individual, organizational, and institutional determinants of political entry; and summarizes the main findings and puzzles related to the representation/competence trade-off in recent microcensus studies on who runs for office. Fruitful directions for future work are highlighted throughout the article.},
	pages = {253--275},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Gulzar, Saad},
	urldate = {2021-05-18},
	date = {2021},
}

@article{gazdar_development_nodate,
	title = {The Development of Islamic Finance in Tunisia after the Arab Spring: Does Political Islam Matter?},
	volume = {n/a},
	rights = {© 2021 Policy Studies Organization},
	issn = {1747-1346},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/polp.12408},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12408},
	shorttitle = {The Development of Islamic Finance in Tunisia after the Arab Spring},
	abstract = {This study examines the impact of political transformation in Tunisia and the rise of Islamic political parties on people's perceptions toward developing the Islamic finance sector in the country. We assess the extent to which the future of Islamic finance in Tunisia could be related to political Islam or if political orientation could be detrimental to the development of the country's Islamic finance. Based on a survey distributed to 1,158 Tunisian citizens, we offer an insight into how political Islam has affected the development of Islamic finance in Tunisia. We find that: (1) political orientation does not appear to be a significant determinant of the acceptance of Islamic finance; (2) religious beliefs appear to be a significant determinant of the acceptance of Islamic finance; and (3) the future development of Islamic finance in Tunisia can be linked more precisely to the country's social transformation rather than the rise to power of Islamic political parties since the Arab Spring. Related Articles Antwi-Boateng, Osman. 2015. “No Spring in Africa: How Sub-Saharan Africa has Avoided the Arab Spring Phenomenon.” Politics \& Policy 43 (5): 754-784. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12129 Khodair, Amany Ahmed, Mostafa E. {AboElsoud}, and Mahmoud Khalifa. 2019. “The Role of Regional Media in Shaping Political Awareness of Youth: Evidence from Egypt.” Politics \& Policy 47 (6): 1095-1124. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12335 Sarquís, David J. 2012. “Democratization after the Arab Spring: The Case of Egypt's Political Transition.” Politics \& Policy 40 (5): 871-903. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.2012.00381.x},
	issue = {n/a},
	journaltitle = {Politics \& Policy},
	author = {Gazdar, Kaouthar and Grassa, Rihab and Hassan, M. Kabir},
	urldate = {2021-05-10},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Banking Sector, Comparative Politics, Democracia, Democracy, Finanzas islámicas, Islam político, Islamic Finance, Political Islam, Political Parties, Primavera árabe, Religion, Revolución, Revolution, Sector bancario, Social Transformation, Transformación social, Tunisia, Túnez, 伊斯兰金融, 政治伊斯兰, 民主, 社会转型, 突尼斯, 银行业, 阿拉伯之春, 革命},
}

@article{cruz_criminal_2011,
	title = {Criminal Violence and Democratization in Central America: The Survival of the Violent State},
	volume = {53},
	rights = {© 2011 University of Miami},
	issn = {1548-2456},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2011.00132.x},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2011.00132.x},
	shorttitle = {Criminal Violence and Democratization in Central America},
	abstract = {Why does Nicaragua have less violent crime than Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras? All these countries underwent political transitions in the 1990s. Many explanations point to the legacies of war, socioeconomic underdevelopment, and neoliberal structural reforms. However, these arguments do not fully explain why, despite economic reforms conducted throughout the region, war-less Honduras and wealthier Guatemala and El Salvador have much more crime than Nicaragua. This article argues that public security reforms carried out during the political transitions shaped the ability of the new regimes to control the violence produced by their own institutions and collaborators. In the analysis of the crisis of public security, it is important to bring the state back. The survival of violent entrepreneurs in the new security apparatus and their relationship with new governing elites foster the conditions for the escalation of violence in northern Central America.},
	pages = {1--33},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Latin American Politics and Society},
	author = {Cruz, José Miguel},
	urldate = {2021-05-04},
	date = {2011},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{myerson_moral_2015,
	title = {Moral Hazard in High Office and the Dynamics of Aristocracy},
	volume = {83},
	rights = {© 2015 The Econometric Society},
	issn = {1468-0262},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.3982/ECTA9737},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA9737},
	abstract = {Both aristocratic privileges and constitutional constraints in traditional monarchies can be derived from a ruler's incentive to minimize expected costs of moral-hazard rents for high officials. We consider a dynamic moral-hazard model of governors serving a sovereign prince, who must deter them from rebellion and hidden corruption which could cause costly crises. To minimize costs, a governor's rewards for good performance should be deferred up to the maximal credit that the prince can be trusted to pay. In the long run, we find that high officials can become an entrenched aristocracy with low turnover and large claims on the ruler. Dismissals for bad performance should be randomized to avoid inciting rebellions, but the prince can profit from reselling vacant offices, and so his decisions to dismiss high officials require institutionalized monitoring. A soft budget constraint that forgives losses for low-credit governors can become efficient when costs of corruption are low.},
	pages = {2083--2126},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {Econometrica},
	author = {Myerson, Roger B.},
	urldate = {2021-05-04},
	date = {2015},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Moral-hazard rents, foundations of the state, minimizing turnover, soft budget constraint},
}

@article{kinda_firm_2011,
	title = {Firm Productivity and Investment Climate in Developing Countries: How Does Middle East and North Africa Manufacturing Perform?},
	volume = {49},
	rights = {© 2011 The Authors. The Developing Economies © 2011 Institute of Developing Economies},
	issn = {1746-1049},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1746-1049.2011.00146.x},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1746-1049.2011.00146.x},
	shorttitle = {Firm Productivity and Investment Climate in Developing Countries},
	abstract = {Firm productive performances in five Middle East and North African ({MENA}) economies and eight manufacturing industries are compared to those in 17 other developing countries. Although the broad picture hides some heterogeneity, enterprises in {MENA} often performed inadequately given the middle-income status of the {MENA} economies, with the exception of Morocco and, to some extent, Saudi Arabia. Firm competitiveness is a more constant constraint, with a unit labor cost higher than in most competitor countries, as well as investment climate ({IC}) deficiencies. The empirical analysis also points out how {IC} matters for firm productivity through the quality of infrastructure, the experience and education of the labor force, the cost and access to financing, and different dimensions of the government–business relationship. These findings bear important policy implications by showing which dimensions of the {IC}, in which industry, could help manufacturing in {MENA} to be more competitive in the globalization context.},
	pages = {429--462},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {The Developing Economies},
	author = {Kinda, Tidiane and Plane, Patrick and Véganzonès‐Varoudakis, Marie-Ange},
	urldate = {2021-05-04},
	date = {2011},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {D24, Developing countries, Investment climate, Manufacturing firms, Middle East and North Africa ({MENA}), O14, O57, Productivity},
}

@article{phillips_testing_2015,
	title = {Testing for Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes of Exuberance and Collapse in the S\&p 500},
	volume = {56},
	rights = {© (2015) by the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association},
	issn = {1468-2354},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/iere.12132},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12132},
	shorttitle = {Testing for Multiple Bubbles},
	abstract = {Recent work on econometric detection mechanisms has shown the effectiveness of recursive procedures in identifying and dating financial bubbles in real time. These procedures are useful as warning alerts in surveillance strategies conducted by central banks and fiscal regulators with real-time data. Use of these methods over long historical periods presents a more serious econometric challenge due to the complexity of the nonlinear structure and break mechanisms that are inherent in multiple-bubble phenomena within the same sample period. To meet this challenge, this article develops a new recursive flexible window method that is better suited for practical implementation with long historical time series. The method is a generalized version of the sup augmented Dickey–Fuller ({ADF}) test of Phillips et al. (“Explosive behavior in the 1990s {NASDAQ}: When did exuberance escalate asset values?” International Economic Review 52 (2011), 201–26; {PWY}) and delivers a consistent real-time date-stamping strategy for the origination and termination of multiple bubbles. Simulations show that the test significantly improves discriminatory power and leads to distinct power gains when multiple bubbles occur. An empirical application of the methodology is conducted on S\&P 500 stock market data over a long historical period from January 1871 to December 2010. The new approach successfully identifies the well-known historical episodes of exuberance and collapses over this period, whereas the strategy of {PWY} and a related cumulative sum ({CUSUM}) dating procedure locate far fewer episodes in the same sample range.},
	pages = {1043--1078},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {International Economic Review},
	author = {Phillips, Peter C. B. and Shi, Shuping and Yu, Jun},
	urldate = {2021-03-08},
	date = {2015},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{bhandari_able_nodate,
	title = {Able and Mostly Willing: An Empirical Anatomy of Information's Effect on Voter-Driven Accountability in Senegal},
	volume = {n/a},
	rights = {©2021, Midwest Political Science Association},
	issn = {1540-5907},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajps.12591},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12591},
	shorttitle = {Able and Mostly Willing},
	abstract = {Political accountability may be constrained by the reach and relevance of information campaigns in developing democracies and—upon receiving information—voters' ability and will to hold politicians accountable. To illuminate voter-level constraints and information relevance absent dissemination constraints, we conducted a field experiment around Senegal's 2017 parliamentary elections to examine the core theoretical steps linking receiving different types of incumbent performance information to electoral and nonelectoral accountability. Voters immediately processed information as Bayesians, found temporally benchmarked local performance outcomes particularly informative, and updated their beliefs for at least a month. Learning that incumbents generally performed better than expected, voters durably requested greater politician contact after elections while incumbent vote choice increased among likely voters and voters prioritizing local projects when appraising incumbents. In contrast, information about incumbent duties did not systematically influence beliefs or accountability. These findings suggest voters were able and mostly willing to use relevant information to hold politicians to account.},
	issue = {n/a},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Bhandari, Abhit and Larreguy, Horacio and Marshall, John},
	urldate = {2021-03-06},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {corruption},
}

@article{pond_political_2020,
	title = {The Political Importance of Financial Performance},
	volume = {64},
	rights = {©2019, Midwest Political Science Association},
	issn = {1540-5907},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/ajps.12480},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12480},
	abstract = {Asset mobility is thought to constrain taxation, as firms with mobile assets can avoid taxation by locating their assets in low-tax jurisdictions. Firms with immobile assets then face higher taxes. By considering the political incentives that accompany widespread financialization, we identify a new limit to the targeting of immobile firms: Publicly traded firms with immobile underlying assets lose more value in financial markets when taxes are increased, as shareholders anticipate that these underlying assets cannot be withheld from taxation. When governments care about this loss in value, their incentive to tax immobile, publicly traded firms declines. Political concern for financial performance therefore limits the extent to which immobile assets can be targeted for taxation. We argue that broad-based participation in the stock market and democratic political institutions increase political concern for financial performance. We discuss the implications of the theory and findings for policy autonomy, firm ownership, and economic voting.},
	pages = {152--168},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Pond, Amy and Zafeiridou, Christina},
	urldate = {2020-11-11},
	date = {2020},
	langid = {english},
}

@incollection{mahdavy_hossein_patterns_1970,
	title = {Patterns and Problems of Economic Development in Rentier States : the Case of Iran},
	isbn = {978-1-315-00031-2},
	shorttitle = {Patterns and Problems of Economic Development in Rentier States},
	abstract = {The purpose of economic history is presumably analysis as well as collection of facts with a view to explaining certain uniformities that are believed to exist in the economic life of human societies. In other 
words, the art consists of formulating verifiable hypotheses and testing them 
against the facts of economic history. Few people have advanced hypotheses 
concerning the causes, prerequisites, patterns and problems of economic 
development that could have universal applicability, for all times and all 
places. The less ambitious approach consists in pinpointing and explaining 
certain uniformities within a more limited time span and for a more 
limited area. The area of our interest in this paper-that of the Rentier 
States-is not quite limited to the Middle East, though most countries of 
this region happen to belong to this category. As for the time span of our 
study, it is one of the objectives of this paper to suggest that the period 
roughly corresponding to 1950-6 represents a landmark in the economic 
history of the Middle East and that at least in the case of Iran the structure 
and sources of economic growth after this period are distinctly different 
from the decades preceding it.},
	booktitle = {Studies in the Economic History of the Middle East},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	author = {Mahdavy, Hossein},
	date = {1970},
}

@incollection{kuhn_contentious_2015,
	title = {Do Contentious Elections Trigger Violence?},
	isbn = {978-1-315-72306-8},
	abstract = {This chapter explores the relationship between the degree of ethnic voting and pre-electoral violence. The chapter then demonstrates a robust positive association between a country's level of ethnic voting and the use of violence during election campaigns, using 54 nationally representative surveys from 19 different countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and four different measures of pre-electoral violence. First, the chapter focuses on pre-electoral violence-that is, violence committed during the campaign period in order to suppress turnout of certain groups of voters. It argues that higher levels of ethnic voting should increase the likelihood of violent election campaigns, since it increases electoral competition and renders other campaign tactics, such as programmatic appeals and patronage, ineffective. Second, the chapter highlights the importance of the social structure and behavior of the electorate next to the institutional and economic factors, with regard to the more specialized literature on electoral violence. Finally, it concludes, the result's implications, and suggests avenues for future research.},
	booktitle = {Contentious Elections},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	author = {Kuhn, Patrick M.},
	date = {2015},
}

@article{kobeissi_impact_2005,
	title = {Impact of Governance, Legal System and Economic Freedom on Foreign Investment in the {MENA} Region},
	volume = {8},
	rights = {Copyright (c) 2015 Journal of Comparative International Management},
	issn = {1718-0864},
	url = {https://journals.lib.unb.ca/index.php/JCIM/article/view/433},
	abstract = {While there is substantial literature examining the flow of foreign investments into various regions of the world, there is still lack of research focus on foreign investment activities in the Middle East and North Africa ({MENA}). One objective of this paper is to remedy this neglect and extend previous empirical work by focusing on foreign investments in that region. The second objective is to focus on non-traditional determinants that have tended to be overlooked or underestimated in previous research. The paper will focus on factors such as governance, legal environment, and economic freedom and examine their impact on foreign investment activities in the {MENA} region.},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Comparative International Management},
	shortjournal = {{JCIM}},
	author = {Kobeissi, Nada},
	urldate = {2021-05-04},
	date = {2005-06-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{abul-magd_egypts_2020,
	title = {Egypt’s Defense Industry: Dependency, Civilian Production, and Attempts at Autonomy},
	volume = {10},
	issn = {2146-7757},
	url = {https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/allazimuth/631010},
	doi = {10.20991/allazimuth.631010},
	shorttitle = {Egypt’s Defense Industry},
	abstract = {Egypt’s defense industry is the oldest and largest in the Arab world. However, most of its military factories have converted into manufacturing consumer goods to the civilian market for profit. Meanwhile, they continue to produce traditional weapon systems that mostly do not respond to urgent needs to combat terrorism in asymmetric warfare. In addition, Egypt is largely dependent on U.S. firms for procurement and co-production. After a political crisis in 2013, the Ministry of Military Production ({MoMP}) has attempted to revive defense production through new co-production initiatives with international arms firms. The country also attempts to reduce its dependence on the U.S. by seeking procurement from other states such as France, Russia, and Germany. Such efforts remain noticeably limited, because the Egyptian military still focuses on its civilian business enterprises .},
	pages = {59--80},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace},
	author = {Abul-Magd, Zeinab},
	urldate = {2021-04-07},
	date = {2020-12-10},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{kalhor_innovation_2020,
	title = {Innovation mediating and moderating internationalization in family and non-family businesses: embeddedness in Egypt, Madagascar, Morocco and Turkey},
	volume = {38},
	rights = {Copyright (c) 2020 Fondazione {CUEIM}},
	issn = {0393-5108},
	url = {https://ojs.sijm.it/index.php/sinergie/article/view/798},
	doi = {10.7433/s.112.2020.05},
	shorttitle = {Innovation mediating and moderating internationalization in family and non-family businesses},
	abstract = {Purpose of the paper: According to most previous research, family businesses tend to internationalize less than non-family businesses. However, previous research has been conducted mainly in developed countries, where strong institutions support non-family businesses more than family businesses. Conversely, in developing countries with weak institutions, family businesses may conceivably have a comparative advantage for internationalization, especially if they are innovative. This paper focuses on how innovation may mediate and moderate the effect of governance upon internationalization in the form of exporting, as this dynamic is embedded in developing societies with weak institutions. 
Methodology: The research method is quantitative data analysis. Our account is based on a representative sample of 4,004 family and non-family businesses in Egypt, Madagascar, Morocco, and Turkey, surveyed for the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor.
Findings: Analyses show that governance hardly affects innovativeness, but affects internationalization, in that exporting is especially high for family businesses in Morocco. Moreover, innovativeness boosts exporting in family business more than in non-family business. Furthermore, the comparative advantage of family businesses is larger in Morocco than in Egypt, Madagascar, and Turkey. 
Research limits: Although an essential feature of our research design is based on a  comparative approach, rather than the typical single-country studies, we compared four similar societies in developing countries with weak institutions. Therefore, a significant limitation is that our findings concerning the internationalization of family businesses should not be generalized to all kinds of societies. Moreover, due to the small number of countries (four developing countries), it is statistically impossible to test the effects of the macro-institutional factors affecting family firms exporting. Therefore, we can only measure country contexts' overall impact without elaborating effects of specific institutional factors enhancing or hampering the internationalization process.
Practical implications: The practical implication is relevant for family firms' policies to know that innovation in family firms is not a waste of investment, but innovation especially can boost exporting in family business more than in non-family firms, thereby enhancing the economic performance of family firms.
Originality of the paper: These results contribute to understanding internationalization in family businesses as shaped by innovation and as embedded in society's context.},
	pages = {91--111},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Sinergie Italian Journal of Management},
	author = {Kalhor, Elham and Ghalwash, Seham},
	urldate = {2021-03-15},
	date = {2020-08-31},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {developing countries, exporting, family business, innovation, internationalization},
}

@article{diwan_political_2020,
	title = {Political Connections Reduce Job Creation: Firm-level Evidence from Lebanon},
	volume = {0},
	issn = {0022-0388},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2020.1849622},
	doi = {10.1080/00220388.2020.1849622},
	shorttitle = {Political Connections Reduce Job Creation},
	abstract = {Using firm-level data, we document that politically connected firms ({PCFs}) create more jobs than unconnected firms in Lebanon. We observe, however, that the presence of {PCFs} in a sector is correlated with lower job creation. Although causality is difficult to establish due to endogeneity issues, we find that {PCFs} expand, and non-{PCFs} retract, more around elections. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that unfair competition by {PCFs} hurts unconnected competitors so much that aggregate employment growth in the sector is affected negatively.},
	pages = {1--24},
	number = {0},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of Development Studies},
	author = {Diwan, Ishac and Haidar, Jamal Ibrahim},
	urldate = {2021-05-04},
	date = {2020-12-15},
}

@article{bochsler_power-sharing_2021,
	title = {Power-sharing and the quality of democracy},
	volume = {13},
	issn = {1755-7739, 1755-7747},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/european-political-science-review/article/powersharing-and-the-quality-of-democracy/C1E6EB66EE80884114F704BAF1C5E67B?utm_source=hootsuite&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=EPR_Nov21},
	doi = {10.1017/S1755773921000151},
	abstract = {Mounting evidence indicates that power-sharing supports transitions to democracy. However, the resulting quality of democracy remains understudied. Given the increasing global spread of power-sharing, this is a crucial oversight, as prominent critiques accuse it of a number of critical deficiencies. The present article advances this literature in two ways. First, it offers a comprehensive discussion of how power-sharing affects the quality of democracy, going beyond specific individual aspects of democracy. It argues that power-sharing advances some of these aspects while having drawbacks for others. Second, it offers the first systematic, large-N analysis of the frequently discussed consequences of power-sharing for the quality of democracy. It relies on a dataset measuring the quality of democracy in 70 countries worldwide, combining it with new fine-grained data for institutional power-sharing. The results indicate that power-sharing is a complex institutional model which privileges a particular set of democratic actors and processes, while deemphasizing others.},
	pages = {411--430},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {European Political Science Review},
	author = {Bochsler, Daniel and Juon, Andreas},
	urldate = {2021-12-28},
	date = {2021-11},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {consociationalism, democracy, liberal rights, power-sharing, quality of democracy},
}

@article{de_la_o_conditional_2013,
	title = {Do Conditional Cash Transfers Affect Electoral Behavior? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Mexico},
	volume = {57},
	issn = {0092-5853},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/23496539},
	shorttitle = {Do Conditional Cash Transfers Affect Electoral Behavior?},
	abstract = {This article reexamines the argument that targeted programs increase pro-incumbent voting by persuading beneficiaries to cast ballots against their first partisan choice. The evidence comes from the randomized component of Progresa, the pioneering Mexican conditional cash transfer ({CCT}) program. Experimental data show that early enrollment in the program led to substantive increases in voter turnout and in the incumbent's vote share in the 2000 presidential election. The experiment also reveals that opposition parties' vote shares were unaffected by the program. Thus, the electoral bonus generated by {CCTs} may be best explained by a mobilizing rather than persuasive mechanism. These findings are difficult to reconcile with the notion that the electoral effects of {CCTs} are a result of prospective concerns triggered by threats of program discontinuation or endogenous program enrollment. Instead, the evidence in this article suggests that {CCTs}' mobilizing effects are compatible with programmatic politics.},
	pages = {1--14},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {De La O, Ana L.},
	urldate = {2021-12-20},
	date = {2013},
}

@article{errington_investigating_2021,
	title = {Investigating the replicability of preclinical cancer biology},
	volume = {10},
	issn = {2050-084X},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.71601},
	doi = {10.7554/eLife.71601},
	abstract = {Replicability is an important feature of scientific research, but aspects of contemporary research culture, such as an emphasis on novelty, can make replicability seem less important than it should be. The Reproducibility Project: Cancer Biology was set up to provide evidence about the replicability of preclinical research in cancer biology by repeating selected experiments from high-impact papers. A total of 50 experiments from 23 papers were repeated, generating data about the replicability of a total of 158 effects. Most of the original effects were positive effects (136), with the rest being null effects (22). A majority of the original effect sizes were reported as numerical values (117), with the rest being reported as representative images (41). We employed seven methods to assess replicability, and some of these methods were not suitable for all the effects in our sample. One method compared effect sizes: for positive effects, the median effect size in the replications was 85\% smaller than the median effect size in the original experiments, and 92\% of replication effect sizes were smaller than the original. The other methods were binary – the replication was either a success or a failure – and five of these methods could be used to assess both positive and null effects when effect sizes were reported as numerical values. For positive effects, 40\% of replications (39/97) succeeded according to three or more of these five methods, and for null effects 80\% of replications (12/15) were successful on this basis; combining positive and null effects, the success rate was 46\% (51/112). A successful replication does not definitively confirm an original finding or its theoretical interpretation. Equally, a failure to replicate does not disconfirm a finding, but it does suggest that additional investigation is needed to establish its reliability.},
	pages = {e71601},
	journaltitle = {{eLife}},
	author = {Errington, Timothy M and Mathur, Maya and Soderberg, Courtney K and Denis, Alexandria and Perfito, Nicole and Iorns, Elizabeth and Nosek, Brian A},
	editor = {Pasqualini, Renata and Franco, Eduardo},
	urldate = {2021-12-08},
	date = {2021-12-07},
	keywords = {Reproducibility Project: Cancer Biology, credibility, meta-analysis, replication, reproducibility, reproducibility in cancer biology, transparency},
}

@article{spence_prediction_2016,
	title = {Prediction Interval: What to Expect When You’re Expecting … A Replication},
	volume = {11},
	issn = {1932-6203},
	url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0162874},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0162874},
	shorttitle = {Prediction Interval},
	abstract = {A challenge when interpreting replications is determining whether the results of a replication “successfully” replicate the original study. Looking for consistency between two studies is challenging because individual studies are susceptible to many sources of error that can cause study results to deviate from each other and the population effect in unpredictable directions and magnitudes. In the current paper, we derive methods to compute a prediction interval, a range of results that can be expected in a replication due to chance (i.e., sampling error), for means and commonly used indexes of effect size: correlations and d-values. The prediction interval is calculable based on objective study characteristics (i.e., effect size of the original study and sample sizes of the original study and planned replication) even when sample sizes across studies are unequal. The prediction interval provides an a priori method for assessing if the difference between an original and replication result is consistent with what can be expected due to sample error alone. We provide open-source software tools that allow researchers, reviewers, replicators, and editors to easily calculate prediction intervals.},
	pages = {e0162874},
	number = {9},
	journaltitle = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	shortjournal = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	author = {Spence, Jeffrey R. and Stanley, David J.},
	urldate = {2021-12-08},
	date = {2016-09-19},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Clinical psychology, Forecasting, Metaanalysis, Open source software, Reflection, Replication studies, Reproducibility, Social psychology},
}

@article{anderson_state_1987,
	title = {The State in the Middle East and North Africa},
	volume = {20},
	issn = {0010-4159},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/421917},
	doi = {10.2307/421917},
	pages = {1--18},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Politics},
	author = {Anderson, Lisa},
	urldate = {2021-12-05},
	date = {1987},
}

@article{bauer_conceptual_2014,
	title = {A Conceptual Framework for the Comparative Analysis of Policy Change: Measurement, Explanation and Strategies of Policy Dismantling},
	volume = {16},
	issn = {1387-6988},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13876988.2014.885186},
	doi = {10.1080/13876988.2014.885186},
	shorttitle = {A Conceptual Framework for the Comparative Analysis of Policy Change},
	abstract = {The analysis of policy change has so far concentrated on the assessment and explanation of different degrees of change. The distinctions between radical versus incremental, path-breaking versus path-dependent or self-reinforcing versus reactive sequences have dominated the debate while the precise direction of policy change has rarely been taken into account. This article therefore concentrates on the extent to which policy change implies a “reduction”, “decrease” or “diminution” of existing policy arrangements. It conceives of this direction of policy change as “policy dismantling”. In developing analytical tools to identify and explain policy dismantling, the article aims to elucidate some of the causes, conditions and strategies of policy dismantling and to establish policy dismantling as a distinct category of policy change.},
	pages = {28--44},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis: Research and Practice},
	author = {Bauer, Michael W. and Knill, Christoph},
	urldate = {2021-10-20},
	date = {2014-01-01},
	keywords = {policy change, policy density, policy dismantling, policy intensity, policy output, policy termination, political dismantling strategies},
}

@article{larrick_intuitions_2006,
	title = {Intuitions About Combining Opinions: Misappreciation of the Averaging Principle},
	volume = {52},
	issn = {0025-1909},
	url = {https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0459},
	doi = {10.1287/mnsc.1050.0459},
	shorttitle = {Intuitions About Combining Opinions},
	abstract = {Averaging estimates is an effective way to improve accuracy when combining expert judgments, integrating group members’ judgments, or using advice to modify personal judgments. If the estimates of two judges ever fall on different sides of the truth, which we term bracketing, averaging must outperform the average judge for convex loss functions, such as mean absolute deviation ({MAD}). We hypothesized that people often hold incorrect beliefs about averaging, falsely concluding that the average of two judges’ estimates would be no more accurate than the average judge. The experiments confirmed that this misconception was common across a range of tasks that involved reasoning from summary data (Experiment 1), from specific instances (Experiment 2), and conceptually (Experiment 3). However, this misconception decreased as observed or assumed bracketing rate increased (all three studies) and when bracketing was made more transparent (Experiment 2). Experiment 4 showed that flawed inferential rules and poor extensional reasoning abilities contributed to the misconception. We conclude by describing how people may face few opportunities to learn the benefits of averaging and how misappreciating averaging contributes to poor intuitive strategies for combining estimates.},
	pages = {111--127},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Management Science},
	author = {Larrick, Richard P. and Soll, Jack B.},
	urldate = {2021-10-17},
	date = {2006-01-01},
	keywords = {advice taking, averaging opinions, combining forecasts, heuristics and biases, information aggregation},
}

@article{fjelde_electoral_2016,
	title = {Electoral Institutions and Electoral Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa},
	volume = {46},
	issn = {0007-1234, 1469-2112},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/electoral-institutions-and-electoral-violence-in-subsaharan-africa/3EAE320E957EEFFCC2D23C0253C8CAD0},
	doi = {10.1017/S0007123414000179},
	abstract = {Political violence remains a pervasive feature of electoral dynamics in many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, even where multiparty elections have become the dominant mode of regulating access to political power. With cross-national data on electoral violence in Sub-Saharan African elections between 1990 and 2010, this article develops and tests a theory that links the use of violent electoral tactics to the high stakes put in place by majoritarian electoral institutions. It is found that electoral violence is more likely in countries that employ majoritarian voting rules and elect fewer legislators from each district. Majoritarian institutions are, as predicted by theory, particularly likely to provoke violence where large ethno-political groups are excluded from power and significant economic inequalities exist.},
	pages = {297--320},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {British Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Fjelde, Hanne and Höglund, Kristine},
	urldate = {2021-10-13},
	date = {2016-04},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{cederman_elections_2013,
	title = {Elections and Ethnic Civil War},
	volume = {46},
	issn = {0010-4140},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414012453697},
	doi = {10.1177/0010414012453697},
	abstract = {Existing research on how democratization may influence the risk of civil war tends to consider only changes in the overall level of democracy and rarely examines explicitly the postulated mechanisms relating democratization to incentives for violence. The authors argue that typically highlighted key mechanisms imply that elections should be especially likely to affect ethnic groups’ inclination to resort to violence. Distinguishing between types of conflict and the order of competitive elections, the authors find that ethnic civil wars are more likely to erupt after competitive elections, especially after first and second elections following periods of no polling. When disaggregating to the level of individual ethnic groups and conflicts over territory or government, the authors find some support for the notion that ethno-nationalist mobilization and sore-loser effects provoke postelectoral violence. More specifically, although large groups in general are more likely to engage in governmental conflicts, they are especially likely to do so after noncompetitive elections. Competitive elections, however, strongly reduce the risk of conflict.},
	pages = {387--417},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	shortjournal = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Hug, Simon},
	urldate = {2021-10-13},
	date = {2013-03-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {civil war, democratization, elections, ethnic conflict},
}

@article{reny_xenophobia_2020,
	title = {Xenophobia in the time of pandemic: othering, anti-Asian attitudes, and {COVID}-19},
	volume = {0},
	issn = {2156-5503},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/21565503.2020.1769693},
	doi = {10.1080/21565503.2020.1769693},
	shorttitle = {Xenophobia in the time of pandemic},
	abstract = {As the number of {COVID}-19 cases rose in the {US} and around the world in early 2020, conservative elites in the {US} racialized the pandemic, referring to the coronavirus as the “Chinese flu” or the “Wuhan virus.” Existing research suggests that this linking of the viral pandemic to a social group will “activate” anti-Asian attitudes in the mass public, helping bring those attitudes to bear on behaviors and attitudes related to {COVID}-19. Despite anecdotal evidence of a spike in discriminatory behavior targeted at Asians across western countries, little empirical evidence for this “othering” hypothesis exists. Using a large survey (n = 4311) benchmarked to national demographics, we analyze the relationship between attitudes toward Asian Americans, xenophobia, concern about contracting the coronavirus, and a variety of behavioral outcomes and policy attitudes. We find evidence that anti-Asian attitudes are associated with concern about the virus but also with xenophobic behaviors and policy preferences. These relationships are unique to Asian American attitudes, are not related to attitudes toward other outgroups, and do not hold for a variety of placebo outcomes. Together our findings suggest that anti-Asian attitudes were activated and were associated with a variety of {COVID}-19 attitudes and behaviors in the early stages of the pandemic.},
	pages = {1--24},
	number = {0},
	journaltitle = {Politics, Groups, and Identities},
	author = {Reny, Tyler T. and Barreto, Matt A.},
	urldate = {2021-10-13},
	date = {2020-05-28},
	keywords = {Asian American politics, Infectious disease, coronavirus, othering, pandemic, racial and ethnic politics},
}

@article{chung_covid-19_2021,
	title = {{COVID}-19 and the Political Framing of China, Nationalism, and Borders in the U.S. and South Korean News Media},
	issn = {0731-1214},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/07311214211005484},
	doi = {10.1177/07311214211005484},
	abstract = {Using an inductive framing analysis of news coverage, we examine how the most popular liberal and conservative news media in the United States and South Korea mobilize different nationalist narratives on China in responding to social, economic, and political upheavals during the early stages of the {COVID}-19 pandemic. We identify three major areas of political cleavage in both Korean and U.S. media discourse on nationalist identities vis-à-vis the construction of the national or racialized “Other.” This includes (1) imagined solidarity against China as an adversary; (2) political disputes over boundary-making; (3) and the construction of ethnonational belonging and exclusion. Our research underscores how intrastate and interstate shifts during periods of crisis can heighten political cleavages along racial and ethnic fault lines and complicate dominant frameworks of civic and ethnic nationalism in both countries.},
	pages = {07311214211005484},
	journaltitle = {Sociological Perspectives},
	shortjournal = {Sociological Perspectives},
	author = {Chung, Angie Y. and Jo, Hyerim and Lee, Ji-won and Yang, Fan},
	urldate = {2021-10-13},
	date = {2021-04-13},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Asia and Asian America, global and transnational sociology, nationalism, pandemic, political sociology, technologies and media sociology},
}

@article{leung_how_2021,
	title = {How Asians React to Discrimination Does Not Depend on Their Party Identification},
	volume = {7},
	issn = {2378-0231},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/23780231211048023},
	doi = {10.1177/23780231211048023},
	abstract = {How do individuals respond to discrimination against their group? The authors help answer this normatively important question by conducting a survey with a large, national, quota-based sample of 2,482 Asians living in the United States during December 2020. In the survey, the authors provide respondents with truthful information about the increasing prevalence of anti-Asian discrimination in the United States during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and ask them to write about what this makes them feel or think about life in America. Using automatic text analysis tools to analyze this rich, novel set of personal reflections, the authors show in this visualization that Asian reactions to discrimination do not meaningfully differ across partisan identification. These findings extend the large literature showing partisan differences in perceptions of racial discrimination and its effects by the general public and show at least one way in which partisan polarization does not influence American views.},
	pages = {23780231211048023},
	journaltitle = {Socius},
	shortjournal = {Socius},
	author = {Leung, Kristo and Cheng, Ke and Zhang, Junyao and Cheng, Yipeng and Nguyen Cao, Viet Hung and Ioku, Shusuke and Kikuchi, Masanori and Long, Wen and Crabtree, Charles},
	urldate = {2021-10-13},
	date = {2021-01-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{AAPI}, Asian American, discrimination, partisanship, text analysis},
}

@article{tsai_intergroup_2020,
	title = {Intergroup Contact, {COVID}-19 News Consumption, and the Moderating Role of Digital Media Trust on Prejudice Toward Asians in the United States: Cross-Sectional Study},
	volume = {22},
	url = {https://www.jmir.org/2020/9/e22767},
	doi = {10.2196/22767},
	shorttitle = {Intergroup Contact, {COVID}-19 News Consumption, and the Moderating Role of Digital Media Trust on Prejudice Toward Asians in the United States},
	abstract = {Background: The perceived threat of a contagious virus may lead people to be distrustful of immigrants and out-groups. Since the {COVID}-19 outbreak, the salient politicized discourses of blaming Chinese people for spreading the virus have fueled over 2000 reports of anti-Asian racial incidents and hate crimes in the United States.
Objective: The study aims to investigate the relationships between news consumption, trust, intergroup contact, and prejudicial attitudes toward Asians and Asian Americans residing in the United States during the {COVID}-19 pandemic. We compare how traditional news, social media use, and biased news exposure cultivate racial attitudes, and the moderating role of media use and trust on prejudice against Asians is examined.
Methods: A cross-sectional study was completed in May 2020. A total of 430 {US} adults (mean age 36.75, {SD} 11.49 years; n=258, 60\% male) participated in an online survey through Amazon’s Mechanical Turk platform. Respondents answered questions related to traditional news exposure, social media use, perceived trust, and their top three news channels for staying informed about the novel coronavirus. In addition, intergroup contact and racial attitudes toward Asians were assessed. We performed hierarchical regression analyses to test the associations. Moderation effects were estimated using simple slopes testing with a 95\% bootstrap confidence interval approach.
Results: Participants who identified as conservatives (β=.08, P=.02), had a personal infection history (β=.10, P=.004), and interacted with Asian people frequently in their daily lives (β=.46, P\&lt;.001) reported more negative attitudes toward Asians after controlling for sociodemographic variables. Relying more on traditional news media (β=.08, P=.04) and higher levels of trust in social media (β=.13, P=.007) were positively associated with prejudice against Asians. In contrast, consuming news from left-leaning outlets (β=–.15, P=.001) and neutral outlets (β=–.13, P=.003) was linked to less prejudicial attitudes toward Asians. Among those who had high trust in social media, exposure had a negative relationship with prejudice. At high levels of trust in digital websites and apps, frequent use was related to less unfavorable attitudes toward Asians.
Conclusions: Experiencing racial prejudice among the Asian population during a challenging pandemic can cause poor psychological outcomes and exacerbate health disparities. The results suggest that conservative ideology, personal infection history, frequency of intergroup contact, traditional news exposure, and trust in social media emerge as positive predictors of prejudice against Asians and Asian Americans, whereas people who get {COVID}-19 news from left-leaning and balanced outlets show less prejudice. For those who have more trust in social media and digital news, frequent use of these two sources is associated with lower levels of prejudice. Our findings highlight the need to reshape traditional news discourses and use social media and mobile news apps to develop credible messages for combating racial prejudice against Asians.},
	pages = {e22767},
	number = {9},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Medical Internet Research},
	author = {Tsai, Jiun-Yi and Phua, Joe and Pan, Shuya and Yang, Chia-Chen},
	urldate = {2021-10-13},
	date = {2020-09-25},
}

@article{kaushal_american_2021,
	title = {American Attitudes Toward {COVID}-19: More Trumpism Than Partisanship},
	issn = {1532-673X},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X211046251},
	doi = {10.1177/1532673X211046251},
	shorttitle = {American Attitudes Toward {COVID}-19},
	abstract = {We investigate how support for President Donald Trump, beyond partisanship, guided Americans’ attitudes toward {COVID}-19. This speaks to not just how “Trumpism” and the Trump administration’s handling of the pandemic influenced public attitudes but to the larger issue of how Trump’s hold on voters within and beyond the Republican Party provides further evidence that leaders surpass the role of parties in influencing public opinion. Using longitudinal data with individual fixed-effects, we find that from the start of the pandemic, support for Trump above and beyond partisanship drove public attitudes capturing skepticism toward {COVID}-19, fears of personal vulnerability, compliance with public-safety measures, and viewing the pandemic in racist terms. Between March and August 2020, this gulf in attitudes between Trump voters and non-supporters, and between Republicans and Democrats, widened; the widening was more pronounced between Trump voters and non-supporters. Trump’s influence on Independents and non-voters also grew over the same period. While the use of terms like “China virus” was related to partisanship and support for Trump, we find an increase in awareness across groups that these terms were racist.},
	pages = {1532673X211046251},
	journaltitle = {American Politics Research},
	shortjournal = {American Politics Research},
	author = {Kaushal, Neeraj and Lu, Yao and Shapiro, Robert Y. and So, Jennifer},
	urldate = {2021-10-13},
	date = {2021-09-23},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, partisanship, political polarization, racism},
}

@article{fraley_item_2000,
	title = {An item response theory analysis of self-report measures of adult attachment.},
	volume = {78},
	pages = {350},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of personality and social psychology},
	author = {Fraley, R. Chris and Waller, Niels G. and Brennan, Kelly A.},
	date = {2000},
}

@article{bellinger_when_2021,
	title = {When Does Oil Harm Child Mortality?},
	volume = {74},
	issn = {1065-9129},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912920931201},
	doi = {10.1177/1065912920931201},
	abstract = {When is oil a curse for health outcomes? This paper addresses the question by analyzing the effect of oil wealth on child mortality rates in nondemocratic countries. We argue that oil is particularly likely to harm child mortality when leaders have short time horizons. Such leaders are more likely to use oil revenues to finance private goods and patronage which builds their support coalition at the expense of public goods that benefit the broader population. We test this argument using panel regression and a global sample of nondemocratic regimes, supplemented with a case study of Cameroon. Results from both empirical approaches are consistent with our argument. These findings identify some specific conditions under which oil can be detrimental to child mortality, and thus explain some of the variation in health outcomes across oil-producing states.},
	pages = {645--657},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Political Research Quarterly},
	shortjournal = {Political Research Quarterly},
	author = {Bellinger, Nisha and Fails, Matthew D.},
	urldate = {2021-09-12},
	date = {2021-09-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {child mortality, nondemocracy, oil, resource curse, time horizons},
}

@article{smith_rethinking_2021,
	title = {Rethinking the Resource Curse},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/elements/rethinking-the-resource-curse/98A68DF4E64A08EE1BCCA3099A49118F},
	doi = {10.1017/9781108776837},
	abstract = {Cambridge Core - Comparative Politics - Rethinking the Resource Curse},
	journaltitle = {Elements in the Politics of Development},
	author = {Smith, Benjamin and Waldner, David},
	urldate = {2021-09-07},
	date = {2021-04},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {rentier},
}

@article{waldner_survivorship_2021,
	title = {Survivorship Bias in Comparative Politics: Endogenous Sovereignty and the Resource Curse},
	volume = {19},
	issn = {1537-5927, 1541-0986},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/survivorship-bias-in-comparative-politics-endogenous-sovereignty-and-the-resource-curse/E7CC75B211A7CCE246C2C27B10ABD593},
	doi = {10.1017/S1537592720003497},
	shorttitle = {Survivorship Bias in Comparative Politics},
	abstract = {Cross-national statistical research based on “all country” data sets involves no deliberate selection and hence ignores the potential for endogenous selection bias. We show that these designs are prone to selection bias if existing units are subject to differential survival rates induced, in part, by treatment. Using rudimentary graph theory, we present survivorship bias as a form of collider bias, which is related to but distinct from selection on the dependent variable. Because collider bias is always relative to a specific causal model, we present a causal model of post-colonial sovereignty on the Arabian Peninsula, show that it implies survivorship bias in the form of false positives with respect to the political resource curse, and provide historical evidence confirming that the model correctly depicts the creation of sovereign countries on the Arabian Peninsula but not elsewhere. When we correct for endogenous selection bias, the effect of oil on autocratic survival is shown to be negligible. The study motivates the need to think more broadly about the nature of the data-generating process when making causal inferences with observational data and to construct statistical models that are sensitive to treatment heterogeneity and rooted in context-specific knowledge and qualitative inferences.},
	pages = {890--905},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Waldner, David and Smith, Benjamin},
	urldate = {2021-09-07},
	date = {2021-09},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {rentier},
}

@article{spinellis_decay_2003,
	title = {The decay and failures of web references},
	volume = {46},
	pages = {71--77},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Communications of the {ACM}},
	author = {Spinellis, Diomidis},
	date = {2003},
}

@article{clarke_which_2021,
	title = {Which protests count? Coverage bias in Middle East event datasets},
	volume = {0},
	issn = {1362-9395},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13629395.2021.1957577},
	doi = {10.1080/13629395.2021.1957577},
	shorttitle = {Which protests count?},
	abstract = {Since the 2011 Arab Spring revolutions many scholars of the Middle East have built and analyzed locally-sourced protest event datasets, which have been hailed for providing superior coverage to various off-the-shelf datasets that rely primarily on English-language sources. This paper assesses the extent of these coverage improvements. It shows that across five different {MENA} countries, locally-sourced datasets identify considerably more events than most off-the-shelf datasets. It then compares one locally-sourced dataset of protests in Egypt from January 2012 to July 2013 to two prominent off-the-shelf datasets: {ACLED} and {SCAD}. These comparisons reveal that both {ACLED} and {SCAD} significantly overcount large, urban, violent, and political events. Next the paper compares the Egypt dataset to data compiled by two Egyptian activist groups, and finds that the locally-sourced dataset is also biased in key respects, undercounting small labor events outside the capital. Finally, the paper demonstrates the implications of these biases by showing how statistical models of protest repression differ when using the locally-sourced dataset versus {SCAD}. Scholars of Mediterranean politics analyzing within-case and sub-national mobilization dynamics should use locally-sourced datasets whenever possible, but should also be aware that using local sources does not entirely eliminate certain forms of bias.},
	pages = {1--27},
	number = {0},
	journaltitle = {Mediterranean Politics},
	author = {Clarke, Killian},
	urldate = {2021-08-30},
	date = {2021-07-22},
	keywords = {Egypt, Middle East, Protest, contentious politics, event analysis},
}

@article{marple_bigger_nodate,
	title = {Bigger than Bitcoin: A Theoretical Typology and Research Agenda for Digital Currencies},
	issn = {1469-3569},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/business-and-politics/article/bigger-than-bitcoin-a-theoretical-typology-and-research-agenda-for-digital-currencies/13766B9BF59D82A306D3C22C7B0933BD},
	doi = {10.1017/bap.2021.12},
	shorttitle = {Bigger than Bitcoin},
	abstract = {Currency is the fundamental economic technology that makes promises credible among actors within and across societies. From shells, to metals, to paper, the technology of money has continually evolved to meet the changing needs of human society. The twenty-first century is witnessing yet another evolution in the technology of money: digital currencies. Although political economy scholarship has begun to focus on digital currencies, this research has largely focused on single early examples like Bitcoin. I argue that this generally narrow focus has obscured important degrees of variation among digital currencies and, by extension, has omitted important lines of research on digital currencies as a familiar evolution in the technology of money. In this article, I revisit the history of digital currencies with explicit attention to not only economic inefficiencies but also political power structures and offer a new typology for theoretically organizing digital currencies along dimensions relevant to practitioners of political economy. I illustrate that variation along these typological dimensions produces important differences among different digital currencies and, relatedly, I explore the implications this has for digital currencies’ externalities and governance demands. Drawing on this typology, I conclude with a proposed research agenda for the political economy of digital currencies.},
	pages = {1--17},
	journaltitle = {Business and Politics},
	author = {Marple, Tim},
	urldate = {2021-08-29},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, digital currency, political economy, research agenda, to read, typology},
}

@article{frey_democracy_2020,
	title = {Democracy, culture, and contagion: political regimes and countries responsiveness to Covid-19},
	url = {https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:06808503-78e4-404f-804f-1f97ab2c7d7e},
	shorttitle = {Democracy, culture, and contagion},
	abstract = {A widely held belief is that autocratic governments have been more effective in reducing the movement of people to curb the spread of Covid-19. Using the Oxford {COVID}-19 Government Response Tracker ({OxCGRT}), and a real-time dataset with daily information on travel and movement across 111 countries, we find that autocratic regimes imposed more stringent lockdowns and relied more on contact tracing. However, we find no evidence that autocratic governments were more effective in reducing travel, and evidence to the contrary: countries with democratically accountable governments introduced less stringent lockdowns but were approximately 20\% more effective in reducing geographic mobility at the same level of policy stringency. In addition, building on a large literature on cross-cultural psychology, we show that for the same policy stringency, countries with more obedient and collectivist cultural traits experienced larger declines in geographic mobility relative to their more individualistic counterparts. We conclude that, in terms of reducing mobility, collectivist and democratic countries have implemented relatively effective responses to Covid-19.},
	number = {18},
	journaltitle = {Covid Economics},
	author = {Frey, C. B. and Chen, C. and Presidente, G.},
	urldate = {2021-08-25},
	date = {2020-05-15},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{landman_pandemic_2020,
	title = {Pandemic democracy: elections and {COVID}-19},
	volume = {23},
	issn = {1366-9877},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2020.1765003},
	doi = {10.1080/13669877.2020.1765003},
	shorttitle = {Pandemic democracy},
	abstract = {This article provides an initial assessment of the many risks posed by the {COVID}-19 pandemic on the conduct of genuine and transparent elections in the world. It begins with explaining why elections are a vital part of democracy, and then using the notion of the electoral cycle, constructs a risk matrix that assesses the relative impact and likelihood of risks to the cycle, as well as proposes a number of potential mitigations to these risks. The variety and number of elections, dimensions of the electoral cycle that can be disrupted, and the need for solutions raises significant questions about the future of democracy itself.},
	pages = {1060--1066},
	number = {7},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Risk Research},
	author = {Landman, Todd and Splendore, Luca Di Gennaro},
	urldate = {2021-08-25},
	date = {2020-08-02},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, Democracy, elections, electoral cycle, electoral risk},
}

@article{karamouzian_covid-19_2020,
	title = {{COVID}-19 response in the Middle East and north Africa: challenges and paths forward},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {2214-109X},
	url = {https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30233-3/abstract},
	doi = {10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30233-3},
	shorttitle = {{COVID}-19 response in the Middle East and north Africa},
	abstract = {Coronavirus disease 2019 ({COVID}-19) was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020; however,
the first reports of its occurrence in the Middle East and north Africa ({MENA}) came
from Iran in late February.1 As of May 6, the disease has spread across the 22 countries
in the region, with 224 071 confirmed cases and 8378 deaths (ie, case fatality rate
of 3·7\%). These figures underestimate the extent of the virus's spread because of
the low number of completed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ({SARS}-{CoV}-2)
tests and inadequate case reporting across the region.},
	pages = {e886--e887},
	number = {7},
	journaltitle = {The Lancet Global Health},
	shortjournal = {The Lancet Global Health},
	author = {Karamouzian, Mohammad and Madani, Navid},
	urldate = {2021-08-25},
	date = {2020-07-01},
}

@article{hellewell_feasibility_2020,
	title = {Feasibility of controlling {COVID}-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {2214-109X},
	url = {https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30074-7/abstract},
	doi = {10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30074-7},
	abstract = {{\textless}h2{\textgreater}Summary{\textless}/h2{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Background{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}Isolation of cases and contact tracing is used to control outbreaks of infectious diseases, and has been used for coronavirus disease 2019 ({COVID}-19). Whether this strategy will achieve control depends on characteristics of both the pathogen and the response. Here we use a mathematical model to assess if isolation and contact tracing are able to control onwards transmission from imported cases of {COVID}-19.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Methods{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}We developed a stochastic transmission model, parameterised to the {COVID}-19 outbreak. We used the model to quantify the potential effectiveness of contact tracing and isolation of cases at controlling a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ({SARS}-{CoV}-2)-like pathogen. We considered scenarios that varied in the number of initial cases, the basic reproduction number (\textit{R}$_{\textrm{0}}$), the delay from symptom onset to isolation, the probability that contacts were traced, the proportion of transmission that occurred before symptom onset, and the proportion of subclinical infections. We assumed isolation prevented all further transmission in the model. Outbreaks were deemed controlled if transmission ended within 12 weeks or before 5000 cases in total. We measured the success of controlling outbreaks using isolation and contact tracing, and quantified the weekly maximum number of cases traced to measure feasibility of public health effort.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Findings{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}Simulated outbreaks starting with five initial cases, an \textit{R}$_{\textrm{0}}$ of 1·5, and 0\% transmission before symptom onset could be controlled even with low contact tracing probability; however, the probability of controlling an outbreak decreased with the number of initial cases, when \textit{R}$_{\textrm{0}}$ was 2·5 or 3·5 and with more transmission before symptom onset. Across different initial numbers of cases, the majority of scenarios with an \textit{R}$_{\textrm{0}}$ of 1·5 were controllable with less than 50\% of contacts successfully traced. To control the majority of outbreaks, for \textit{R}$_{\textrm{0}}$ of 2·5 more than 70\% of contacts had to be traced, and for an \textit{R}$_{\textrm{0}}$ of 3·5 more than 90\% of contacts had to be traced. The delay between symptom onset and isolation had the largest role in determining whether an outbreak was controllable when \textit{R}$_{\textrm{0}}$ was 1·5. For \textit{R}$_{\textrm{0}}$ values of 2·5 or 3·5, if there were 40 initial cases, contact tracing and isolation were only potentially feasible when less than 1\% of transmission occurred before symptom onset.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Interpretation{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}In most scenarios, highly effective contact tracing and case isolation is enough to control a new outbreak of {COVID}-19 within 3 months. The probability of control decreases with long delays from symptom onset to isolation, fewer cases ascertained by contact tracing, and increasing transmission before symptoms. This model can be modified to reflect updated transmission characteristics and more specific definitions of outbreak control to assess the potential success of local response efforts.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Funding{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}Wellcome Trust, Global Challenges Research Fund, and Health Data Research {UK}.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	pages = {e488--e496},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {The Lancet Global Health},
	shortjournal = {The Lancet Global Health},
	author = {Hellewell, Joel and Abbott, Sam and Gimma, Amy and Bosse, Nikos I. and Jarvis, Christopher I. and Russell, Timothy W. and Munday, James D. and Kucharski, Adam J. and Edmunds, W. John and Sun, Fiona and Flasche, Stefan and Quilty, Billy J. and Davies, Nicholas and Liu, Yang and Clifford, Samuel and Klepac, Petra and Jit, Mark and Diamond, Charlie and Gibbs, Hamish and Zandvoort, Kevin van and Funk, Sebastian and Eggo, Rosalind M.},
	urldate = {2021-08-23},
	date = {2020-04-01},
}

@article{esposito_universal_2020,
	title = {Universal use of face masks for success against {COVID}-19: evidence and implications for prevention policies},
	volume = {55},
	rights = {Copyright ©{ERS} 2020. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This version is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial Licence 4.0.},
	issn = {0903-1936, 1399-3003},
	url = {https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/55/6/2001260},
	doi = {10.1183/13993003.01260-2020},
	shorttitle = {Universal use of face masks for success against {COVID}-19},
	abstract = {Tweetable abstract @{ERSpublications}
click to {tweetCloth} masks are a simple, economic and sustainable alternative to surgical masks as a means of source control of {SARS}-{CoV}-2 in the general community https://bit.ly/2x2xTL4},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {European Respiratory Journal},
	author = {Esposito, Susanna and Principi, Nicola and Leung, Chi Chi and Migliori, Giovanni Battista},
	urldate = {2021-08-23},
	date = {2020-06-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{razi_legitimacy_1990,
	title = {Legitimacy, Religion, and Nationalism in the Middle East},
	volume = {84},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/legitimacy-religion-and-nationalism-in-the-middle-east/E4621FB5CA2348258B402FCF7613A6B9#access-block},
	doi = {10.2307/1963630},
	abstract = {The significance of legitimacy to regime maintenance has been much neglected in recent investigations of the Third World, particularly by behavioralists and rational choice theorists. I define legitimacy, discuss factors that may have contributed to this neglect, and explore the significance of nationalism and religion as major sources of legitimacy in the Middle East. Both a misunderstanding of the role of higher values and rationality in individuals' relationship to social systems and a faulty projection applied to the mainsprings of behavior in other cultures have distorted the perceptions of a number of Western analysts. The relationship between religion and nationalism is complex. Contrary to the common assumption in the West, Islam in general has generated fairly sophisticated constitutional theories. Islamic fundamentalism in particular has been a major source of innovation and adaptation—as well as of spiritual gratification—for the Muslim masses.},
	pages = {69--91},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Razi, G. Hossein},
	urldate = {2021-08-09},
	date = {1990-03},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{corden_booming_1984,
	title = {Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation},
	volume = {36},
	issn = {0030-7653},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/2662669},
	shorttitle = {Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics},
	pages = {359--380},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Oxford Economic Papers},
	author = {Corden, W. M.},
	urldate = {2021-07-20},
	date = {1984},
}

@article{fjelde_buying_2009,
	title = {Buying Peace? Oil Wealth, Corruption and Civil War, 1985—99},
	volume = {46},
	issn = {0022-3433},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343308100715},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343308100715},
	shorttitle = {Buying Peace?},
	abstract = {This article argues that, contrary to received wisdom, political corruption is not necessarily associated with a higher risk of civil war in oil-rich states. Political corruption can be used to accommodate opposition and placate restive groups by offering private privilege in exchange for political loyalty. Since oil wealth is associated with large rents accruing in state treasuries, it provides an economic foundation for such clientelist rule. This article thus argues that oil-rich governments can use political corruption to buy support from key segments of society, effectively outspending other entrepreneurs of violence. Based on a logit analysis of civil war onsets, 1985—99, the article finds support for this `co-optation argument'. A negative and statistically significant interaction term between oil production and political corruption is consistent across different models and robust to a number of specifications. While both variables per se increase the risk of conflict overall, higher levels of corruption seem to weaken the harmful impact of oil on the risk of civil war. This finding suggests the need for a more nuanced understanding of the relationship between natural resource wealth, governance and armed conflict. Political corruption has prolonged poverty and bred economic and political inequality in many oil-rich states, but it has also helped cement powerful alliances with a stake in the continuation of the corrupt regimes.},
	pages = {199--218},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Peace Research},
	shortjournal = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Fjelde, Hanne},
	urldate = {2021-07-20},
	date = {2009-03-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{kazemian_role_2021,
	title = {The role of race and scientific trust on support for {COVID}-19 social distancing measures in the United States},
	volume = {16},
	issn = {1932-6203},
	url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0254127},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0254127},
	abstract = {Pundits and academics across disciplines note that the human toll brought forth by the novel coronavirus ({COVID}-19) pandemic in the United States (U.S.) is fundamentally unequal for communities of color. Standing literature on public health posits that one of the chief predictors of racial disparity in health outcomes is a lack of institutional trust among minority communities. Furthermore, in our own county-level analysis from the U.S., we find that counties with higher percentages of Black and Hispanic residents have had vastly higher cumulative deaths from {COVID}-19. In light of this standing literature and our own analysis, it is critical to better understand how to mitigate or prevent these unequal outcomes for any future pandemic or public health emergency. Therefore, we assess the claim that raising institutional trust, primarily scientific trust, is key to mitigating these racial inequities. Leveraging a new, pre-pandemic measure of scientific trust, we find that trust in science, unlike trust in politicians or the media, significantly raises support for {COVID}-19 social distancing policies across racial lines. Our findings suggest that increasing scientific trust is essential to garnering support for public health policies that lessen the severity of the current, and potentially a future, pandemic.},
	pages = {e0254127},
	number = {7},
	journaltitle = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	shortjournal = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	author = {Kazemian, Sara and Fuller, Sam and Algara, Carlos},
	urldate = {2021-07-20},
	date = {2021-07-09},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{COVID} 19, Pandemics, Public and occupational health, Public policy, Science policy, Scientists, Social distancing, Social policy},
}

@article{kazemian_role_2021-1,
	title = {The role of race and scientific trust on support for {COVID}-19 social distancing measures in the United States},
	volume = {16},
	issn = {1932-6203},
	url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0254127},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0254127},
	abstract = {Pundits and academics across disciplines note that the human toll brought forth by the novel coronavirus ({COVID}-19) pandemic in the United States (U.S.) is fundamentally unequal for communities of color. Standing literature on public health posits that one of the chief predictors of racial disparity in health outcomes is a lack of institutional trust among minority communities. Furthermore, in our own county-level analysis from the U.S., we find that counties with higher percentages of Black and Hispanic residents have had vastly higher cumulative deaths from {COVID}-19. In light of this standing literature and our own analysis, it is critical to better understand how to mitigate or prevent these unequal outcomes for any future pandemic or public health emergency. Therefore, we assess the claim that raising institutional trust, primarily scientific trust, is key to mitigating these racial inequities. Leveraging a new, pre-pandemic measure of scientific trust, we find that trust in science, unlike trust in politicians or the media, significantly raises support for {COVID}-19 social distancing policies across racial lines. Our findings suggest that increasing scientific trust is essential to garnering support for public health policies that lessen the severity of the current, and potentially a future, pandemic.},
	pages = {e0254127},
	number = {7},
	journaltitle = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	shortjournal = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	author = {Kazemian, Sara and Fuller, Sam and Algara, Carlos},
	urldate = {2021-07-20},
	date = {2021-07-09},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{COVID} 19, Pandemics, Public and occupational health, Public policy, Science policy, Scientists, Social distancing, Social policy},
}

@article{gingerich_pandemics_2021,
	title = {Pandemics and Political Development: The Electoral Legacy of the Black Death in Germany},
	volume = {73},
	issn = {0043-8871, 1086-3338},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/world-politics/article/pandemics-and-political-development/EA9466FE5164149AD4350B7D38222A5C},
	doi = {10.1017/S0043887121000034},
	shorttitle = {Pandemics and Political Development},
	abstract = {Do pandemics have lasting consequences for political behavior? The authors address this question by examining the consequences of the deadliest pandemic of the last millennium: the Black Death (1347–1351). They claim that pandemics can influence politics in the long run if the loss of life is high enough to increase the price of labor relative to other factors of production. When this occurs, labor-repressive regimes, such as serfdom, become untenable, which ultimately leads to the development of proto-democratic institutions and associated political cultures that shape modalities of political engagement for generations. The authors test their theory by tracing the consequences of the Black Death in German-speaking Central Europe. They find that areas hit hardest by that pandemic were more likely to adopt inclusive political institutions and equitable land ownership patterns, to exhibit electoral behavior indicating independence from landed elite influence during the transition to mass politics, and to have significantly lower vote shares for Hitler’s National Socialist Party in the Weimar Republic’s fateful 1930 and July 1932 elections.},
	pages = {393--440},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Gingerich, Daniel W. and Vogler, Jan P.},
	urldate = {2021-07-18},
	date = {2021-07},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Black Death, Central Europe, German Empire, Germany, Imperial Germany, {NSDAP}, National Socialism, Nazi party, Prussia, Weimar Republic, antidemocratic parties, aristocracy, bubonic plague, conservatism, conservative parties, culture and institutions, democracy, democratization, disease, elections, elite politics, epidemics, factor prices, fourteenth century, illiberal politics, inclusive political institutions, institutional persistence, labor coercion, labor repression, land-labor ratio, landed elites, landholding inequality, legacies, liberal parties, liberalism, local political participation, long nineteenth century, pandemics, path dependence, plague, political culture, political elites, political history, proto-democratic institutions, right-wing parties, serfdom, transition to mass politics, twentieth century},
}

@article{pepinsky_note_2018,
	title = {A Note on Listwise Deletion versus Multiple Imputation},
	volume = {26},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/note-on-listwise-deletion-versus-multiple-imputation/39DE56539189423F6C985B3B9EBF7E56},
	doi = {10.1017/pan.2018.18},
	abstract = {This letter compares the performance of multiple imputation and listwise deletion using a simulation approach. The focus is on data that are “missing not at random” ({MNAR}), in which case both multiple imputation and listwise deletion are known to be biased. In these simulations, multiple imputation yields results that are frequently more biased, less efficient, and with worse coverage than listwise deletion when data are {MNAR}. This is the case even with very strong correlations between fully observed variables and variables with missing values, such that the data are very nearly “missing at random.” These results recommend caution when comparing the results from multiple imputation and listwise deletion, when the true data generating process is unknown.},
	pages = {480--488},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Pepinsky, Thomas B.},
	urldate = {2021-07-12},
	date = {2018-10},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Monte Carlo simulation, imputation methods, missing data, multiple imputation},
}

@article{abbott_binary_2019,
	title = {Binary Black Hole Population Properties Inferred from the First and Second Observing Runs of Advanced {LIGO} and Advanced Virgo},
	volume = {882},
	issn = {2041-8205},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/ab3800},
	doi = {10.3847/2041-8213/ab3800},
	abstract = {We present results on the mass, spin, and redshift distributions with phenomenological population models using the 10 binary black hole ({BBH}) mergers detected in the first and second observing runs completed by Advanced {LIGO} and Advanced Virgo. We constrain properties of the {BBH} mass spectrum using models with a range of parameterizations of the {BBH} mass and spin distributions. We find that the mass distribution of the more massive {BH} in such binaries is well approximated by models with no more than 1\% of {BHs} more massive than 45 and a power-law index of α = (90\% credibility). We also show that {BBHs} are unlikely to be composed of {BHs} with large spins aligned to the orbital angular momentum. Modeling the evolution of the {BBH} merger rate with redshift, we show that it is flat or increasing with redshift with 93\% probability. Marginalizing over uncertainties in the {BBH} population, we find robust estimates of the {BBH} merger rate density of R = Gpc−3 yr−1 (90\% credibility). As the {BBH} catalog grows in future observing runs, we expect that uncertainties in the population model parameters will shrink, potentially providing insights into the formation of {BHs} via supernovae, binary interactions of massive stars, stellar cluster dynamics, and the formation history of {BHs} across cosmic time.},
	pages = {L24},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The Astrophysical Journal},
	shortjournal = {{ApJL}},
	author = {Abbott, B. P. and Abbott, R. and Abbott, T. D. and Abraham, S. and Acernese, F. and Ackley, K. and Adams, C. and Adhikari, R. X. and Adya, V. B. and Affeldt, C. and Agathos, M. and Agatsuma, K. and Aggarwal, N. and Aguiar, O. D. and Aiello, L. and Ain, A. and Ajith, P. and Allen, G. and Allocca, A. and Aloy, M. A. and Altin, P. A. and Amato, A. and Ananyeva, A. and Anderson, S. B. and Anderson, W. G. and Angelova, S. V. and Antier, S. and Appert, S. and Arai, K. and Araya, M. C. and Areeda, J. S. and Arène, M. and Arnaud, N. and Arun, K. G. and Ascenzi, S. and Ashton, G. and Aston, S. M. and Astone, P. and Aubin, F. and Aufmuth, P. and {AultONeal}, K. and Austin, C. and Avendano, V. and Avila-Alvarez, A. and Babak, S. and Bacon, P. and Badaracco, F. and Bader, M. K. M. and Bae, S. and Baker, P. T. and Baldaccini, F. and Ballardin, G. and Ballmer, S. W. and Banagiri, S. and Barayoga, J. C. and Barclay, S. E. and Barish, B. C. and Barker, D. and Barkett, K. and Barnum, S. and Barone, F. and Barr, B. and Barsotti, L. and Barsuglia, M. and Barta, D. and Bartlett, J. and Bartos, I. and Bassiri, R. and Basti, A. and Bawaj, M. and Bayley, J. C. and Bazzan, M. and Bécsy, B. and Bejger, M. and Belahcene, I. and Bell, A. S. and Beniwal, D. and Berger, B. K. and Bergmann, G. and Bernuzzi, S. and Bero, J. J. and Berry, C. P. L. and Bersanetti, D. and Bertolini, A. and Betzwieser, J. and Bhandare, R. and Bidler, J. and Bilenko, I. A. and Bilgili, S. A. and Billingsley, G. and Birch, J. and Birney, R. and Birnholtz, O. and Biscans, S. and Biscoveanu, S. and Bisht, A. and Bitossi, M. and Bizouard, M. A. and Blackburn, J. K. and Blair, C. D. and Blair, D. G. and Blair, R. M. and Bloemen, S. and Bode, N. and Boer, M. and Boetzel, Y. and Bogaert, G. and Bondu, F. and Bonilla, E. and Bonnand, R. and Booker, P. and Boom, B. A. and Booth, C. 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K. and Zanolin, M. and Zelenova, T. and Zendri, J.-P. and Zevin, M. and Zhang, J. and Zhang, L. and Zhang, T. and Zhao, C. and Zhou, M. and Zhou, Z. and Zhu, X. J. and Zimmerman, A. B. and Zlochower, Y. and Zucker, M. E. and and, J. Zweizig},
	urldate = {2021-06-30},
	date = {2019-09},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {beta regression},
}

@article{gadenne_tax_2017,
	title = {Tax Me, but Spend Wisely? Sources of Public Finance and Government Accountability},
	volume = {9},
	issn = {1945-7782},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/26156215},
	shorttitle = {Tax Me, but Spend Wisely?},
	abstract = {Existing evidence suggests that extra grant revenues lead to little improvements in public services in developing countries—but would governments spend tax revenues differently? This paper considers a program that invests in the tax capacity of Brazilian municipalities. Using variations in the timing of program uptake, I find that it raises local tax revenues and that the increase in taxes is used to improve both the quantity and quality of municipal education infrastructure. In contrast, increases in grants over which municipalities have the same discretion as taxes have no impact on any measure of local public infrastructure. These results suggest that the way governments are financed matters: governments spend increases in tax revenues more toward expenditures that benefit citizens than increases in grant revenues.},
	pages = {274--314},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Economic Journal: Applied Economics},
	author = {Gadenne, Lucie},
	urldate = {2021-06-28},
	date = {2017},
	keywords = {rentier},
}

@article{paler_keeping_2013,
	title = {Keeping the Public Purse: An Experiment in Windfalls, Taxes, and the Incentives to Restrain Government},
	volume = {107},
	issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/keeping-the-public-purse-an-experiment-in-windfalls-taxes-and-the-incentives-to-restrain-government/1015EC29926C5ADD82C14FFECC582A4D},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055413000415},
	shorttitle = {Keeping the Public Purse},
	abstract = {It is widely believed that rents from windfall revenue undermine accountability. An enduring explanation is that windfalls free leaders from the need to tax, producing a quiescent population. Yet, there is little direct evidence of how windfalls and taxes affect citizen political action. I use novel revenue and information experiments to examine whether and why windfalls (compared to taxes) affect how citizens participate in politics. The experiments were embedded in a public awareness campaign conducted with 1,863 citizens in Indonesia. The results—from an original survey and postcard campaign—indicate that the tax treatment increased monitoring and anti-incumbent political action. Yet, when given spending information, citizens in the windfall treatment cared just as much about misused revenue as those in the tax treatment. The findings have important implications for understanding not only how revenue affects citizen political behavior but also how people acquire and process information on government spending.},
	pages = {706--725},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Paler, Laura},
	urldate = {2021-06-28},
	date = {2013-11},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {rentier},
}

@article{brierley_connections_2021,
	title = {The Connections of Party Brokers: Which Brokers Do Parties Select?},
	volume = {83},
	issn = {0022-3816},
	url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/710783},
	doi = {10.1086/710783},
	shorttitle = {The Connections of Party Brokers},
	abstract = {Seminal models of clientelism assert that parties value brokers for their strong downward ties to voters. Despite its dominance, scholars have not empirically scrutinized key assumptions of this theory due to the challenges of measuring brokers’ network connections. We analyze unique data from three sources—Ghana’s voter register, a handmade catalog of local elites, and a large-scale survey of aspiring party brokers. We show that the observable implications of the standard model do not hold: brokers know surprisingly few voters, brokers with more downward connections are not the most active or effective, and parties do not select the brokers who know the most voters. Instead, brokers with the most upward connections to local elites appear to be the most valuable to parties. We build inductively from these results to develop an alternative theory of brokers, proposing that many parties value “problem solvers” over “monitors.”},
	pages = {884--901},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of Politics},
	author = {Brierley, Sarah and Nathan, Noah L.},
	urldate = {2021-06-24},
	date = {2021-07-01},
}

@article{ritz_dose-response_2015,
	title = {Dose-Response Analysis Using R},
	volume = {10},
	issn = {1932-6203},
	url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0146021},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0146021},
	abstract = {Dose-response analysis can be carried out using multi-purpose commercial statistical software, but except for a few special cases the analysis easily becomes cumbersome as relevant, non-standard output requires manual programming. The extension package drc for the statistical environment R provides a flexible and versatile infrastructure for dose-response analyses in general. The present version of the package, reflecting extensions and modifications over the last decade, provides a user-friendly interface to specify the model assumptions about the dose-response relationship and comes with a number of extractors for summarizing fitted models and carrying out inference on derived parameters. The aim of the present paper is to provide an overview of state-of-the-art dose-response analysis, both in terms of general concepts that have evolved and matured over the years and by means of concrete examples.},
	pages = {e0146021},
	number = {12},
	journaltitle = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	shortjournal = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	author = {Ritz, Christian and Baty, Florent and Streibig, Jens C. and Gerhard, Daniel},
	urldate = {2021-06-24},
	date = {2015-12-30},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Binomials, Computer software, Curve fitting, Dose prediction methods, Log dose-response method, Nonlinear least squares method, Normal distribution, User interfaces},
}

@article{prentice_generalization_1976,
	title = {A Generalization of the Probit and Logit Methods for Dose Response Curves},
	volume = {32},
	issn = {0006-341X},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/2529262},
	doi = {10.2307/2529262},
	abstract = {The relationship between response probability and dosage in quantal response bioassay is modelled using a four parameter class. In addition to location and scale quantities the model includes two shape parameters that essentially index skewness and heaviness of tails of the dose-response curve. The class of models includes such special cases as the logistic, normal, extreme minimum value, extreme maximum value, double exponential, exponential and reflected exponential distribution functions. Score tests are derived for logistic and normal hypotheses and certain submodels are discussed for which the model fitting is computationally convenient. The data of Bliss [1935] illustrates the potential improvement over usual methods in the estimation of critical dose levels.},
	pages = {761--768},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Biometrics},
	author = {Prentice, Ross L.},
	urldate = {2021-06-24},
	date = {1976},
}

@article{susewind_whats_2015,
	title = {What’s in a Name? Probabilistic Inference of Religious Community from South Asian Names},
	volume = {27},
	issn = {1525-822X},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/1525822X14564275},
	doi = {10.1177/1525822X14564275},
	shorttitle = {What’s in a Name?},
	abstract = {Fine-grained data on religious communities are often considered sensitive in South Asia and consequently remain inaccessible. Yet without such data, statistical research on communal relations and group-based inequality remains superficial, hampering the development of appropriate policy measures to prevent further social exclusion on the basis of religion. The open-source algorithm introduced in this article provides a workaround by probabilistically exploiting the communal connotations of names; it transforms name lists—which are readily available—into a new source of demographic data. The algorithm proves highly accurate in identifying Muslim population shares in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, but could be employed more widely across South Asia. It potentially enables more detailed analyses in economics, development studies, and political science as well as better sampling procedures in sociology and anthropology. This article describes the algorithm, evaluates its accuracy, reflects on ethical implications, and introduces a sample data set; the software itself is available in an online supplement to this article.},
	pages = {319--332},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Field Methods},
	shortjournal = {Field Methods},
	author = {Susewind, Raphael},
	urldate = {2021-06-16},
	date = {2015-11-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {South Asia, big data, linguistics, names, religion},
}

@article{chalmers_struggle_2012,
	title = {The Struggle against Corruption during the Democratic Transition: Theorising the Emergent Role of {CSOs}},
	volume = {41},
	issn = {1598-8074},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/deveandsoci.41.1.77},
	shorttitle = {The Struggle against Corruption during the Democratic Transition},
	abstract = {This article argues that civil society organisations ({CSOs}) play an increasingly prominent role in combating corruption in countries that have recently democratised. Democracy cannot survive without accountability, but in transitional democracies the formal accountability mechanisms associated with democratic governance are typically ineffective. “Horizontal accountability” in the form of check-and-balance mechanisms between various state institutions usually does not function well due to the poor capacity of state institutions. “Vertical accountability” through general elections very often fails to bring state actors to account. In such circumstances, we should not be surprised that corruption becomes endemic. In order to reduce corruption, therefore, emerging democracies need far-reaching political reforms to develop sound systems of accountability. But because many state and business actors represent groups with a vested interest in corrupt activities and which generally resist reform initiatives, this article proposes that initiatives for such reform are best generated by organisations based on political movements within the broader community, namely ‘civil society organisations’.},
	pages = {77--102},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Development and Society},
	author = {Chalmers, Ian and Setiyono, Budi},
	urldate = {2021-06-15},
	date = {2012},
}

@article{lukens_practical_2020,
	title = {A practical and efficient approach for Bayesian quantum state estimation},
	volume = {22},
	issn = {1367-2630},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/ab8efa},
	doi = {10.1088/1367-2630/ab8efa},
	abstract = {Bayesian inference is a powerful paradigm for quantum state tomography, treating uncertainty in meaningful and informative ways. Yet the numerical challenges associated with sampling from complex probability distributions hampers Bayesian tomography in practical settings. In this article, we introduce an improved, self-contained approach for Bayesian quantum state estimation. Leveraging advances in machine learning and statistics, our formulation relies on highly efficient preconditioned Crank–Nicolson sampling and a pseudo-likelihood. We theoretically analyze the computational cost, and provide explicit examples of inference for both actual and simulated datasets, illustrating improved performance with respect to existing approaches.},
	pages = {063038},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {New Journal of Physics},
	shortjournal = {New J. Phys.},
	author = {Lukens, Joseph M. and Law, Kody J. H. and Jasra, Ajay and Lougovski, Pavel},
	urldate = {2021-06-09},
	date = {2020-07},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{lukens_practical_2020-1,
	title = {A practical and efficient approach for Bayesian quantum state estimation},
	volume = {22},
	issn = {1367-2630},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/ab8efa},
	doi = {10.1088/1367-2630/ab8efa},
	abstract = {Bayesian inference is a powerful paradigm for quantum state tomography, treating uncertainty in meaningful and informative ways. Yet the numerical challenges associated with sampling from complex probability distributions hampers Bayesian tomography in practical settings. In this article, we introduce an improved, self-contained approach for Bayesian quantum state estimation. Leveraging advances in machine learning and statistics, our formulation relies on highly efficient preconditioned Crank–Nicolson sampling and a pseudo-likelihood. We theoretically analyze the computational cost, and provide explicit examples of inference for both actual and simulated datasets, illustrating improved performance with respect to existing approaches.},
	pages = {063038},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {New Journal of Physics},
	shortjournal = {New J. Phys.},
	author = {Lukens, Joseph M. and Law, Kody J. H. and Jasra, Ajay and Lougovski, Pavel},
	urldate = {2021-06-09},
	date = {2020-07},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{hancke_crisis_nodate,
	title = {Crisis and Complementarities: A Comparative Political Economy of Economic Policies after {COVID}-19},
	issn = {1537-5927, 1541-0986},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/abs/crisis-and-complementarities-a-comparative-political-economy-of-economic-policies-after-covid19/4DCE0384E766AFDEAF2B196803EDEEF6?utm_source=hootsuite&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=PPS_Jun21},
	doi = {10.1017/S1537592721001055},
	shorttitle = {Crisis and Complementarities},
	abstract = {We examine economic policy responses to the {COVID}-19 induced economic collapse in Germany (a coordinated market economy) and the {UK} (a liberal market economy). The two countries responded to the symmetric economic shock with very similar furlough and business credit schemes to stabilize the demand and supply sides of the economy. However, since these policies fed into very different political-economic structures in both countries, they produced very different results. We attribute this divergence to the effect of “institutional complementarities,” the notion in Varieties of Capitalism that different elements of a system are mutually articulated and, therefore, mutually reinforcing beyond their initial contribution, or vice versa. Our results serve as a cautionary tale to policymakers that introducing policy elements developed in other institutional contexts is complex and challenge us to consider systematically the way in which institutional frameworks actively shape policy outcomes.},
	pages = {1--16},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Hancké, Bob and Overbeke, Toon Van and Voss, Dustin},
	urldate = {2021-06-04},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{springborg_economic_2011,
	title = {Economic Involvements of Militaries},
	volume = {43},
	issn = {0020-7438},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/23017306},
	pages = {397--399},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {International Journal of Middle East Studies},
	author = {Springborg, Robert},
	urldate = {2021-05-30},
	date = {2011},
}

@article{hearson_unacceptable_nodate,
	title = {“An Unacceptable Surrender of Fiscal Sovereignty”: The Neoliberal Turn to International Tax Arbitration},
	issn = {1537-5927, 1541-0986},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/an-unacceptable-surrender-of-fiscal-sovereignty-the-neoliberal-turn-to-international-tax-arbitration/C3E4CDD17A00C985AEFC782CB3ADC2D0?utm_source=hootsuite&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=PPS_May21},
	doi = {10.1017/S1537592721000967},
	shorttitle = {“An Unacceptable Surrender of Fiscal Sovereignty”},
	abstract = {The growth of inequality over the past half century is closely connected to the rise of neoliberal policies and institutions, the latter of which shield capital from state actions that might limit wealth accumulation. Economic nationalism since the global financial crisis has slowed or even reversed this, yet this same era has seen the emergence of a new form of instrument in the neoliberal mold, in a stronghold of state sovereignty: taxation. Under mandatory binding tax arbitration, states cede sovereignty over the interpretation of international tax agreements to panels of transnational tax adjudicators. Focusing on the pivotal role of the United States, we use historical documents, including from the congressional archive and interviews with key actors to ask why tax arbitration emerged late in the neoliberal era, and at a counterintuitive time. We demonstrate that this outcome is the result of instrumental business power driving a process of incremental change through layering, to overcome states’ preference to retain sovereignty. This experience sheds light on the historically structured ways that business power constrains sovereignty in an era of high inequality.},
	pages = {1--16},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Hearson, Martin and Tucker, Todd N.},
	urldate = {2021-05-20},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{field_traditional_2010,
	title = {Do Traditional Institutions Constrain Female Entrepreneurship? A Field Experiment on Business Training in India},
	volume = {100},
	issn = {0002-8282},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/27804976},
	shorttitle = {Do Traditional Institutions Constrain Female Entrepreneurship?},
	pages = {125--129},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The American Economic Review},
	author = {Field, Erica and Jayachandran, Seema and Pande, Rohini},
	urldate = {2021-05-19},
	date = {2010},
}

@article{baturo_what_nodate,
	title = {What Countries Select More Experienced Leaders? The {PolEx} Measure of Political Experience},
	issn = {0007-1234, 1469-2112},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/abs/what-countries-select-more-experienced-leaders-the-polex-measure-of-political-experience/44AF0AD5539C16DAB0FB84ECBC852265},
	doi = {10.1017/S0007123421000107},
	shorttitle = {What Countries Select More Experienced Leaders?},
	abstract = {How can one assess which countries select more experienced leaders for the highest office? There is wide variation in prior career paths of national leaders within, and even more so between, regime types. It is therefore challenging to obtain a truly comparative measure of political experience; empirical studies have to rely on proxies instead. This article proposes {PolEx}, a measure of political experience that abstracts away from the details of career paths and generalizes based on the duration, quality and breadth of an individual's experience in politics. The analysis draws on a novel data set of around 2,000 leaders from 1950 to 2017 and uses a Bayesian latent variable model to estimate {PolEx}. The article illustrates how the new measure can be used comparatively to assess whether democracies select more experienced leaders. The authors find that while on average they do, the difference with non-democracies has declined dramatically since the early 2000s. Future research may leverage {PolEx} to investigate the role of prior political experience in, for example, policy making and crisis management.},
	pages = {1--10},
	journaltitle = {British Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Baturo, Alexander and Elkink, Johan A.},
	urldate = {2021-05-18},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {democracy and dictatorship, political careers, political experience, political leaders, political selection},
}

@online{sayigh_praetorian_2021,
	title = {Praetorian spearhead: the role of the military in the evolution of Egypt’s state capitalism 3.0},
	url = {http://www.lse.ac.uk/middle-east-centre/publications/paper-series},
	shorttitle = {Praetorian spearhead},
	abstract = {Military involvement in the Egyptian economy is giving rise to a new version of state capitalism. Driven by Arab socialism in the 1960s and reshaped by privatisation in the 1990s, under President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi the state has sought to bend the private sector to its capital investment strategy while continuing to profess commitment to free market economics. His administration seeks private sector investment, but exclusively on its own terms. This is demonstrated through the expansion and diversion of military economic activity in five sectors: real estate development, creation of industrial and transport hubs, rentier or extractive activities related to natural resources, relations with the private sector, and the effort to increase the state’s financial efficiency while seeking private investment to help capitalise the public sector. This approach may generate macro-level economic growth and improve the efficiency of public finances, but it also reinforces the grip of the state rather than consolidating free markets. Reflecting this, private sector investment in the economy is lower today than it was in the socialist phase of the 1960s.},
	type = {Monograph},
	author = {Sayigh, Yezid},
	urldate = {2021-05-10},
	date = {2021-01-01},
}

@online{sayigh_praetorian_2021-1,
	title = {Praetorian spearhead: the role of the military in the evolution of Egypt’s state capitalism 3.0},
	url = {http://www.lse.ac.uk/middle-east-centre/publications/paper-series},
	shorttitle = {Praetorian spearhead},
	abstract = {Military involvement in the Egyptian economy is giving rise to a new version of state capitalism. Driven by Arab socialism in the 1960s and reshaped by privatisation in the 1990s, under President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi the state has sought to bend the private sector to its capital investment strategy while continuing to profess commitment to free market economics. His administration seeks private sector investment, but exclusively on its own terms. This is demonstrated through the expansion and diversion of military economic activity in five sectors: real estate development, creation of industrial and transport hubs, rentier or extractive activities related to natural resources, relations with the private sector, and the effort to increase the state’s financial efficiency while seeking private investment to help capitalise the public sector. This approach may generate macro-level economic growth and improve the efficiency of public finances, but it also reinforces the grip of the state rather than consolidating free markets. Reflecting this, private sector investment in the economy is lower today than it was in the socialist phase of the 1960s.},
	type = {Monograph},
	author = {Sayigh, Yezid},
	urldate = {2021-05-10},
	date = {2021-01-01},
}

@article{johnstone_global_2011,
	title = {Global Warming and the Arab Spring},
	volume = {53},
	issn = {0039-6338},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2011.571006},
	doi = {10.1080/00396338.2011.571006},
	pages = {11--17},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Survival},
	author = {Johnstone, Sarah and Mazo, Jeffrey},
	urldate = {2021-05-06},
	date = {2011-04-01},
}

@article{schmidt_bureaucrats_1974,
	title = {Bureaucrats as modernizing brokers? Clientelism in Colombia},
	volume = {6},
	pages = {425--450},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Politics},
	author = {Schmidt, Steffen W.},
	date = {1974},
}

@article{aspinall_when_2014,
	title = {When brokers betray: Clientelism, social networks, and electoral politics in Indonesia},
	volume = {46},
	pages = {545--570},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Critical Asian Studies},
	author = {Aspinall, Edward},
	date = {2014},
}

@article{biezen_predominance_2001,
	title = {On the predominance of state money: Reassessing party financing in the new democracies of Southern and Eastern Europe},
	volume = {2},
	issn = {1570-5854},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/1570585018458770},
	doi = {10.1080/1570585018458770},
	shorttitle = {On the predominance of state money},
	abstract = {This article looks at the patterns of party financing in the relatively recently established democracies of Southern and Eastern Europe, with a particular emphasis on the relative importance of the state and society as financial contributors to political parties. Our reassessment of the practice of party financing in these new democratic polities shows that public funding has become a critical source of income in all of the democracies considered here. However, the article also shows that the importance of public money does not unequivocally rule out the relevance of society. Rather than through membership subscriptions, however, society seems to have acquired a special relevance as an illicit source of party financing. We argue that money accrued from corrupt sources may nevertheless reinforce rather than counterbalance the parties’ overall dependence on and orientation towards the state, especially since illicit financing tends to be most profitable for government parties in exploiting the spoils of office. We also argue that the predominance of state money may act to freeze the status quo of the party system and hence achieve a sense of stability that may otherwise be difficult to achieve in the context of relatively vulnerable party organisations and unstable party systems.},
	pages = {401--429},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on European Politics and Society},
	author = {Biezen, Ingrid van and Kopecký, Petr},
	urldate = {2021-05-04},
	date = {2001-09-01},
}

@article{kim_previous_2021,
	title = {Previous Military Rule and Democratic Survival},
	volume = {65},
	issn = {0022-0027},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002720957064},
	doi = {10.1177/0022002720957064},
	abstract = {Existing scholarship shows that a history of military rule increases the risk of democratic breakdown. However, scholars overlook the fact that military rule takes two distinct forms: collegial and personalist military rule. I argue that the two types of military rule provide different structural settings for post-authoritarian contexts. Collegial military rule hands over more cohesive and hierarchical militaries to their subsequent democracies than personalist military rule. These militaries remain organized, politicized, and powerful in emerging democracies, which increases the risk of military intervention and coups. I hypothesize that collegial military rule poses a greater threat to the survival of the ensuing democracies than personalist military rule. Empirical analysis reveals that democracies after collegial military rule are more likely to collapse than other democracies, including those emerging from personalist military rule. This shows that the previous finding on the detrimental effect of military rule is largely driven by collegial military rule.},
	pages = {534--562},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	shortjournal = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Kim, Nam Kyu},
	urldate = {2021-05-04},
	date = {2021-02-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {civil-military relations, democracy, democratic survival, military rule},
}

@article{brownlee__2002,
	title = {… And yet they persist: Explaining survival and transition in neopatrimonial regimes},
	volume = {37},
	pages = {35--63},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Studies in comparative international development},
	author = {Brownlee, Jason},
	date = {2002},
}

@article{magnusson_democratization_2001,
	title = {Democratization and Domestic Insecurity: Navigating the Transition in Benin},
	volume = {33},
	issn = {0010-4159},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/422379},
	doi = {10.2307/422379},
	shorttitle = {Democratization and Domestic Insecurity},
	abstract = {Studies of democratization have underanalyzed problems of domestic insecurity. Four broad types of domestic insecurity have different strategic, institutional, and policy implications. This framework can be applied to the 1994 domestic security crises in the West African country of Benin. Benin is one the most successful, but unlikely, examples of democratic transition since 1990. Benin illustrates the domestic hazards of rapid democratization, as well as the potential for impoverished, resource-poor countries with a long heritage of authoritarianism and politicized communal rivalry to overcome the security challenges of democratization.},
	pages = {211--230},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Politics},
	author = {Magnusson, Bruce A.},
	urldate = {2021-05-04},
	date = {2001},
}

@article{dincecco_fiscal_2009,
	title = {Fiscal Centralization, Limited Government, and Public Revenues in Europe, 1650–1913},
	volume = {69},
	issn = {1471-6372, 0022-0507},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-economic-history/article/abs/fiscal-centralization-limited-government-and-public-revenues-in-europe-16501913/69CBC2A1CD3B166E445FBE2960A59328},
	doi = {10.1017/S0022050709000345},
	abstract = {Old Regime polities typically suffered from fiscal fragmentation and absolutist rule. By the start of World War I, however, many such countries had centralized institutions and limited government. This article uses a new panel data set to perform a statistical analysis of political regimes and public revenues in Europe from 1650 to 1913. Panel regressions indicate that centralized and limited regimes were associated with significantly higher revenues than fragmented and absolutist ones. Structural break tests also suggest close relationships between major turning points in revenue series and political transformations.},
	pages = {48--103},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of Economic History},
	author = {Dincecco, Mark},
	urldate = {2021-05-04},
	date = {2009-03},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{brenner_acceleration_2020,
	title = {Acceleration of Anxiety, Depression, and Suicide: Secondary Effects of Economic Disruption Related to {COVID}-19},
	volume = {11},
	issn = {1664-0640},
	url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyt.2020.592467/full},
	doi = {10.3389/fpsyt.2020.592467},
	shorttitle = {Acceleration of Anxiety, Depression, and Suicide},
	abstract = {The {SARS}-{CoV}-2 ({COVID}-19) pandemic has contributed to increasing levels of anxiety , depression and other symptoms of stress around the globe. Reasons for this increase are understandable in the context of individual level factors such as self-isolation, lock down, grief, survivor guilt and other factors but also broader social and economic factors such as unemployment, insecure employment and resulting poverty, especially as the impacts of 2008 recession are still being felt in many countries further accompanied by social isolation. For those who are actively employed a fear of job and income loss and those who have actually become ill and recovered or those who have lost family and friends to illness, it is not surprising that they are stressed and feeling the psychological impact. These fears and losses are major immediate stresses and undoubtedly can have long-term implications on mental health . Economic uncertainty combined with a sense of feeling trapped and resulting lack of control can contribute to helplessness and hopelessness where people may see suicide as a way out. We present a statistical model of the impact of unemployment, and national income declines, on suicide, separately for males and females over the life cycle in developed countries. This impact may reflect a potent combination of social changes and economic factors resulting in anomie. The governments and policymakers have a moral and ethical obligation to ensure the physical health and well-being of their populations. While setting in place preventive measures to avoid infections and then subsequent mortality, the focus on economic and social recovery is crucial. A global pandemic requires a global response with a clear inter-linked strategy for health as well as economic solutions. The models we have constructed represent predictions of suicide rates among the 38 highly industrialized {OECD} countries over a period of 18 years (2000-2017). Unemployment has a major effect on increasing suicide, especially in middle-aged groups. But the impact of economic decline through losses of national income ({GDP} per capita) are substantially greater than those of unemployment and influence suicide throughout the life course, especially at the oldest ages.},
	journaltitle = {Frontiers in Psychiatry},
	shortjournal = {Front. Psychiatry},
	author = {Brenner, M. Harvey and Bhugra, Dinesh},
	urldate = {2021-04-28},
	date = {2020},
	keywords = {Anxiety, {COVID} - 19, Depression, Economy, {GDP} per capita, Great Recession, Recession, Secondary effects, Suicide, Unemployment, economic distress, national income loss},
}

@article{adida_ebola_2020,
	title = {Ebola, elections, and immigration: how politicizing an epidemic can shape public attitudes},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {2156-5503},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/21565503.2018.1484376},
	doi = {10.1080/21565503.2018.1484376},
	shorttitle = {Ebola, elections, and immigration},
	abstract = {Ebola emerged on U.S. soil during the 2014 midterm election campaign, and the threat of infectious disease became prominent in political rhetoric. African immigrant communities experienced stigma and suspicion during the outbreak. This study investigates the implications of this epidemic on immigration attitudes. We fielded a survey experiment during the Ebola crisis with a sample of 3881 adults in the United States to examine the conditions under which global health threats affect domestic attitudes on immigration. Contrary to expectations, we find that the mere mention of Ebola has no effect on immigration attitudes, even when the identity of the Ebola carrier is described as an African traveler into the United States. Our results show, however, that politicizing the crisis can lead to more exclusionary attitudes toward immigrants. This finding is driven by partisanship: views of immigration were significantly more negative when Republican participants read a statement by a Republican politician critical of President Obama's Ebola response. The study has implications for future epidemics, including the important role political entrepreneurs can play in shaping public perceptions during a disease outbreak. The results raise concerns about how political rhetoric surrounding disease can have both short-term and longer term consequences for vulnerable populations.},
	pages = {488--514},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Politics, Groups, and Identities},
	author = {Adida, Claire L. and Dionne, Kim Yi and Platas, Melina R.},
	urldate = {2021-04-28},
	date = {2020-05-26},
	keywords = {Ebola, elections, immigration, political rhetoric, public opinion},
}

@article{malesky_out_2009,
	title = {Out of the Gray: The Impact of Provincial Institutions on Business Formalization in Vietnam},
	volume = {9},
	issn = {1598-2408},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/23418975},
	shorttitle = {Out of the Gray},
	abstract = {Scholars have long argued that institutional context significantly influences business strategy and economic performance. Research on the relationship between institutions and business strategy, however, has overwhelmingly focused on the decisions of larger, established corporations, mostly neglecting the strategic thinking of smaller, more entrepreneurial ventures. This article seeks to correct this bias by focusing the analysis directly on the critical decision of small-scale entrepreneurs to move from the informal and largely unregulated sector into operation as formal companies. Using a unique dataset and ranking of provincial governance institutions from Vietnam, the authors show that improvements in institutions make firms more likely to choose the formal sector from the start and, for those who do not, to spend less time in the informal sector. The study also finds that property rights have a more salient impact on formalization than other types of institutions.},
	pages = {249--290},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of East Asian Studies},
	author = {Malesky, Edmund and Taussig, Markus},
	urldate = {2021-04-28},
	date = {2009},
}

@article{batjargal_institutional_2012,
	title = {Institutional Polycentrism, Entrepreneurs' Social Networks, and New Venture Growth},
	volume = {56},
	issn = {0001-4273},
	url = {https://journals.aom.org/doi/10.5465/amj.2010.0095},
	doi = {10.5465/amj.2010.0095},
	abstract = {What is the interrelationship among formal institutions, social networks, and new venture growth? Drawing on the theory of institutional polycentrism and social network theory, we examine this question using data on 637 entrepreneurs from four different countries. We find the confluence of weak and inefficient formal institutions to be associated with a larger number of structural holes in entrepreneurial social networks. While the effect of this institutional order on the revenue growth of new ventures is negative, a network's structural holes have a positive effect on revenue growth. Furthermore, the positive effect of structural holes on revenue growth is stronger in an environment with a more adverse institutional order (i.e., weaker and more inefficient institutions). The contributions and implications of these findings are discussed.},
	pages = {1024--1049},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Academy of Management Journal},
	shortjournal = {{AMJ}},
	author = {Batjargal, Bat and Hitt, Michael A. and Tsui, Anne S. and Arregle, Jean-Luc and Webb, Justin W. and Miller, Toyah L.},
	urldate = {2021-04-28},
	date = {2012-09-24},
}

@article{puente_necessity_2019,
	title = {Necessity entrepreneurship in Latin America: it´s not that simple},
	volume = {31},
	issn = {0898-5626},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/08985626.2019.1650294},
	doi = {10.1080/08985626.2019.1650294},
	shorttitle = {Necessity entrepreneurship in Latin America},
	abstract = {Entrepreneurship literature takes for granted the motivation dichotomy; however, this simplistic view have been criticised for several studies because it likely does an injustice to entrepreneurs, particularly Latin America ({LA}) entrepreneurs. This study seeks to contribute to the body of knowledge on entrepreneurs to better explain the process of entrepreneurs being motivated by necessity. We use the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor ({GEM}) database for {LA} countries and develop an econometric model based on a set of variables, including contextual variables. First, we identify three types of entrepreneurial motivation: necessity, opportunity and transition. We then demonstrate that the motivation dichotomy does not represent {LA} entrepreneurship. Second, we find that necessity-driven entrepreneurship does not necessarily indicate the absence of high growth aspirations because some entrepreneurs in this category have such aspirations. Third, we observe that significant differences exist among entrepreneurs based on context, specifically among necessity-driven entrepreneurs. These findings have practical implications for research on entrepreneurship and for regional development.},
	pages = {953--983},
	number = {9},
	journaltitle = {Entrepreneurship \& Regional Development},
	author = {Puente, Raquel and Espitia, Carlos Giovanni González and Cervilla, María Antonia},
	urldate = {2021-04-28},
	date = {2019-10-20},
	keywords = {Entrepreneurship, growth aspirations, motivation dichotomy, necessity-driven, regional development},
}

@article{amoros_necessity_2019,
	title = {Necessity or Opportunity? The Effects of State Fragility and Economic Development on Entrepreneurial Efforts},
	volume = {43},
	issn = {1042-2587},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/1042258717736857},
	doi = {10.1177/1042258717736857},
	shorttitle = {Necessity or Opportunity?},
	abstract = {This paper studies the effects of state fragility and economic development on necessity and opportunity-based individual entrepreneurial efforts. We contribute to the literature on the contextual determinants of entrepreneurship by examining multilevel data on 956,925 individuals from 51 countries for the period of 2005–2013. We show that state fragility has a positive effect on necessity-based entrepreneurial efforts while hindering opportunity-based efforts. Our findings illustrate that the level of economic development moderates the relationship between state fragility and necessity-driven entrepreneurial efforts reducing the likelihood of the latter. We discuss the implications for theory and for proentrepreneurship policy.},
	pages = {725--750},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice},
	shortjournal = {Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice},
	author = {Amorós, José Ernesto and Ciravegna, Luciano and Mandakovic, Vesna and Stenholm, Pekka},
	urldate = {2021-04-27},
	date = {2019-07-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {government policy/regulation, institutional theory, necessity based entrepreneurship},
}

@article{crosson_essential_2021,
	title = {Essential or Expedient? {COVID}-19 and Business Closures in the U.S. States},
	volume = {2},
	issn = {2689-4823, 2689-4815},
	url = {https://www.nowpublishers.com/article/Details/PIP-0031},
	doi = {10.1561/113.00000031},
	shorttitle = {Essential or Expedient?},
	abstract = {Essential or Expedient? {COVID}-19 and Business Closures in the U.S. States},
	pages = {81--102},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy},
	shortjournal = {{PIP}},
	author = {Crosson, Jesse M. and Parinandi, Srinivas C.},
	urldate = {2021-04-25},
	date = {2021-03-10},
}

@article{pirkis_suicide_2021,
	title = {Suicide trends in the early months of the {COVID}-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis of preliminary data from 21 countries},
	volume = {0},
	issn = {2215-0366, 2215-0374},
	url = {https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(21)00091-2/abstract},
	doi = {10.1016/S2215-0366(21)00091-2},
	shorttitle = {Suicide trends in the early months of the {COVID}-19 pandemic},
	abstract = {{\textless}h2{\textgreater}Summary{\textless}/h2{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Background{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}The {COVID}-19 pandemic is having profound mental health consequences for many people. Concerns have been expressed that, at their most extreme, these consequences could manifest as increased suicide rates. We aimed to assess the early effect of the {COVID}-19 pandemic on suicide rates around the world.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Methods{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}We sourced real-time suicide data from countries or areas within countries through a systematic internet search and recourse to our networks and the published literature. Between Sept 1 and Nov 1, 2020, we searched the official websites of these countries' ministries of health, police agencies, and government-run statistics agencies or equivalents, using the translated search terms "suicide" and "cause of death", before broadening the search in an attempt to identify data through other public sources. Data were included from a given country or area if they came from an official government source and were available at a monthly level from at least Jan 1, 2019, to July 31, 2020. Our internet searches were restricted to countries with more than 3 million residents for pragmatic reasons, but we relaxed this rule for countries identified through the literature and our networks. Areas within countries could also be included with populations of less than 3 million. We used an interrupted time-series analysis to model the trend in monthly suicides before {COVID}-19 (from at least Jan 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020) in each country or area within a country, comparing the expected number of suicides derived from the model with the observed number of suicides in the early months of the pandemic (from April 1 to July 31, 2020, in the primary analysis).{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Findings{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}We sourced data from 21 countries (16 high-income and five upper-middle-income countries), including whole-country data in ten countries and data for various areas in 11 countries). Rate ratios ({RRs}) and 95\% {CIs} based on the observed versus expected numbers of suicides showed no evidence of a significant increase in risk of suicide since the pandemic began in any country or area. There was statistical evidence of a decrease in suicide compared with the expected number in 12 countries or areas: New South Wales, Australia ({RR} 0·81 [95\% {CI} 0·72–0·91]); Alberta, Canada (0·80 [0·68–0·93]); British Columbia, Canada (0·76 [0·66–0·87]); Chile (0·85 [0·78–0·94]); Leipzig, Germany (0·49 [0·32–0·74]); Japan (0·94 [0·91–0·96]); New Zealand (0·79 [0·68–0·91]); South Korea (0·94 [0·92–0·97]); California, {USA} (0·90 [0·85–0·95]); Illinois (Cook County), {USA} (0·79 [0·67–0·93]); Texas (four counties), {USA} (0·82 [0·68–0·98]); and Ecuador (0·74 [0·67–0·82]).{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Interpretation{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}This is the first study to examine suicides occurring in the context of the {COVID}-19 pandemic in multiple countries. In high-income and upper-middle-income countries, suicide numbers have remained largely unchanged or declined in the early months of the pandemic compared with the expected levels based on the pre-pandemic period. We need to remain vigilant and be poised to respond if the situation changes as the longer-term mental health and economic effects of the pandemic unfold.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Funding{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}None.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	number = {0},
	journaltitle = {The Lancet Psychiatry},
	shortjournal = {The Lancet Psychiatry},
	author = {Pirkis, Jane and John, Ann and Shin, Sangsoo and {DelPozo}-Banos, Marcos and Arya, Vikas and Analuisa-Aguilar, Pablo and Appleby, Louis and Arensman, Ella and Bantjes, Jason and Baran, Anna and Bertolote, Jose M. and Borges, Guilherme and Brečić, Petrana and Caine, Eric and Castelpietra, Giulio and Chang, Shu-Sen and Colchester, David and Crompton, David and Curkovic, Marko and Deisenhammer, Eberhard A. and Du, Chengan and Dwyer, Jeremy and Erlangsen, Annette and Faust, Jeremy S. and Fortune, Sarah and Garrett, Andrew and George, Devin and Gerstner, Rebekka and Gilissen, Renske and Gould, Madelyn and Hawton, Keith and Kanter, Joseph and Kapur, Navneet and Khan, Murad and Kirtley, Olivia J. and Knipe, Duleeka and Kolves, Kairi and Leske, Stuart and Marahatta, Kedar and Mittendorfer-Rutz, Ellenor and Neznanov, Nikolay and Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas and Nielsen, Emma and Nordentoft, Merete and Oberlerchner, Herwig and O’Connor, Rory C. and Pearson, Melissa and Phillips, Michael R. and Platt, Steve and Plener, Paul L. and Psota, Georg and Qin, Ping and Radeloff, Daniel and Rados, Christa and Reif, Andreas and Reif-Leonhard, Christine and Rozanov, Vsevolod and Schlang, Christiane and Schneider, Barbara and Semenova, Natalia and Sinyor, Mark and Townsend, Ellen and Ueda, Michiko and Vijayakumar, Lakshmi and Webb, Roger T. and Weerasinghe, Manjula and Zalsman, Gil and Gunnell, David and Spittal, Matthew J.},
	urldate = {2021-04-25},
	date = {2021-04-13},
}

@article{zhou_note_2010,
	title = {A Note on Bayesian Inference After Multiple Imputation},
	volume = {64},
	issn = {0003-1305},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1198/tast.2010.09109},
	doi = {10.1198/tast.2010.09109},
	abstract = {This article is aimed at practitioners who plan to use Bayesian inference on multiply-imputed datasets in settings where posterior distributions of the parameters of interest are not approximately Gaussian. We seek to steer practitioners away from a naive approach to Bayesian inference, namely estimating the posterior distribution in each completed dataset and averaging functionals of these distributions. We demonstrate that this approach results in unreliable inferences. A better approach is to mix draws from the posterior distributions from each completed dataset, and use the mixed draws to summarize the posterior distribution. Using simulations, we show that for this second approach to work well, the number of imputed datasets should be large. In particular, five to ten imputed datasets—which is the standard recommendation for multiple imputation—is generally not enough to result in reliable Bayesian inferences.},
	pages = {159--163},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The American Statistician},
	author = {Zhou, Xiang and Reiter, Jerome P.},
	urldate = {2021-04-25},
	date = {2010-05-01},
	keywords = {Missing, Nonresponse, Sample},
}

@article{adida_ebola_2020-1,
	title = {Ebola, elections, and immigration: how politicizing an epidemic can shape public attitudes},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {2156-5503},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/21565503.2018.1484376},
	doi = {10.1080/21565503.2018.1484376},
	shorttitle = {Ebola, elections, and immigration},
	abstract = {Ebola emerged on U.S. soil during the 2014 midterm election campaign, and the threat of infectious disease became prominent in political rhetoric. African immigrant communities experienced stigma and suspicion during the outbreak. This study investigates the implications of this epidemic on immigration attitudes. We fielded a survey experiment during the Ebola crisis with a sample of 3881 adults in the United States to examine the conditions under which global health threats affect domestic attitudes on immigration. Contrary to expectations, we find that the mere mention of Ebola has no effect on immigration attitudes, even when the identity of the Ebola carrier is described as an African traveler into the United States. Our results show, however, that politicizing the crisis can lead to more exclusionary attitudes toward immigrants. This finding is driven by partisanship: views of immigration were significantly more negative when Republican participants read a statement by a Republican politician critical of President Obama's Ebola response. The study has implications for future epidemics, including the important role political entrepreneurs can play in shaping public perceptions during a disease outbreak. The results raise concerns about how political rhetoric surrounding disease can have both short-term and longer term consequences for vulnerable populations.},
	pages = {488--514},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Politics, Groups, and Identities},
	author = {Adida, Claire L. and Dionne, Kim Yi and Platas, Melina R.},
	urldate = {2021-04-23},
	date = {2020-05-26},
	keywords = {Ebola, elections, immigration, political rhetoric, public opinion},
}

@article{harsin_toxic_2020,
	title = {Toxic White masculinity, post-truth politics and the {COVID}-19 infodemic},
	volume = {23},
	issn = {1367-5494},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/1367549420944934},
	doi = {10.1177/1367549420944934},
	abstract = {This article demonstrates and critiques the coronavirus’ cultural agency, which thanks to this human assistance, worked in synergy with its biological form. Looking at the virus as an ‘infodemic’ and a set of transnational political events, it argues that a conjuncturally specific form of toxic, especially white, masculinity is key to understanding the virus’s entwinement with contemporary post-truth or ‘emo-truth’ politics. A conjunctural focus reveals why a certain form of aggressive (masculine and white), ruggedly individualist truth-telling, its false statements, its historical causes, and mortal effects could become so spectacularly impactful at a particular point in time, in particular places.},
	pages = {1060--1068},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {European Journal of Cultural Studies},
	shortjournal = {European Journal of Cultural Studies},
	author = {Harsin, Jayson},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-12-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {coronavirus, disinformation, masculinity, post-truth, race, whiteness},
}

@article{pevehouse_covid-19_2020,
	title = {The {COVID}-19 Pandemic, International Cooperation, and Populism},
	volume = {74},
	issn = {0020-8183, 1531-5088},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/covid19-pandemic-international-cooperation-and-populism/D38BD179B976E06E6627E11B10F125B3},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818320000399},
	abstract = {Inconsistent efforts at international cooperation often undermined global efforts to mitigate the {COVID}-19 health pandemic. Pundits and scholars alike laid much of the blame for this lack of cooperation on domestic political factors, especially populist leaders. Could international relations theories have predicted this behavior? I argue that there are no off-the-shelf theories that engage populism with traditional mechanisms of international cooperation, especially cooperation facilitated by international institutions. I explore how populist sentiment, whether stemming from the public or leaders, can pose barriers to cooperation. I argue that populists are especially likely to resist cues from foreign actors; are especially reticent to delegate national sovereignty; and are especially resistant to policies that result in gains for elites and, when coupled with nationalism, foreigners. The essay concludes with suggestions for further theoretical and empirical research.},
	pages = {E191--E212},
	issue = {S1},
	journaltitle = {International Organization},
	author = {Pevehouse, Jon C. W.},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-12},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {delegation, international cooperation, legitimacy, populism, public opinion},
}

@article{barcelo_voluntary_2020,
	title = {Voluntary adoption of social welfare-enhancing behavior: Mask-wearing in Spain during the {COVID}-19 outbreak},
	volume = {15},
	shorttitle = {Voluntary adoption of social welfare-enhancing behavior},
	pages = {e0242764},
	number = {12},
	journaltitle = {{PloS} one},
	author = {Barceló, Joan and Sheen, Greg Chih-Hsin},
	date = {2020},
}

@article{zettler_role_2021,
	title = {The Role of Personality in {COVID}-19-Related Perceptions, Evaluations, and Behaviors: Findings Across Five Samples, Nine Traits, and 17 Criteria},
	issn = {1948-5506},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/19485506211001680},
	doi = {10.1177/19485506211001680},
	shorttitle = {The Role of Personality in {COVID}-19-Related Perceptions, Evaluations, and Behaviors},
	abstract = {Individuals and institutions around the world have been affected by the coronavirus disease 2019 ({COVID}-19). Herein, we investigate the role of basic (Big Five and {HEXACO}) and specific (Dark Factor of Personality, Narcissistic Rivalry, and Narcissistic Admiration) personality traits for 17 criteria related to {COVID}-19, grouped into (i) personal perceptions in terms of risks and worries about the disease, (ii) behavioral adjustments in terms of following health recommendations and hoarding, and (iii) societal evaluations in terms of the appropriateness of different measures and feelings of social cohesion. (Internal) Meta-analytic results across five samples from two countries (overall N = 19,718) show—next to gender and age effects—the importance of several traits, including Emotionality/Neuroticism for personal perceptions and anti- or prosocial traits for behavior in line with health recommendations. The investigation highlights the importance of individual differences in uncertain and changing situations in general and during the {COVID}-19 pandemic in particular.},
	pages = {19485506211001680},
	journaltitle = {Social Psychological and Personality Science},
	shortjournal = {Social Psychological and Personality Science},
	author = {Zettler, Ingo and Schild, Christoph and Lilleholt, Lau and Kroencke, Lara and Utesch, Till and Moshagen, Morten and Böhm, Robert and Back, Mitja D. and Geukes, Katharina},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2021-04-05},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Big Five, {COVID}-19, {HEXACO}, dark factor of personality, narcissism, personality},
}

@article{bol_effect_2021,
	title = {The effect of {COVID}-19 lockdowns on political support: Some good news for democracy?},
	volume = {60},
	issn = {0304-4130},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12401},
	doi = {10.1111/1475-6765.12401},
	abstract = {Abstract Major crises can act as critical junctures or reinforce the political status quo, depending on how citizens view the performance of central institutions. We use an interrupted time series to study the political effect of the enforcement of a strict confinement policy in response to the {COVID}-19 pandemic. Specifically, we take advantage of a unique representative web-based survey that was fielded in March and April 2020 in Western Europe to compare the political support of those who took the survey right before and right after the start of the lockdown in their country. We find that lockdowns have increased vote intentions for the party of the Prime Minister/President, trust in government and satisfaction with democracy. Furthermore, we find that, while rallying individuals around current leaders and institutions, they have had no effect on traditional left?right attitudes.},
	pages = {497--505},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {European Journal of Political Research},
	shortjournal = {European Journal of Political Research},
	author = {Bol, Damien and Giani, Marco and Blais, Andre and Loewen, Peter John},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2021-05-01},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, democracy, public opinion},
}

@article{windsor_gender_2020,
	title = {Gender in the time of {COVID}-19: Evaluating national leadership and {COVID}-19 fatalities},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {1932-6203},
	url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0244531},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0244531},
	shorttitle = {Gender in the time of {COVID}-19},
	abstract = {In this paper we explore whether countries led by women have fared better during the {COVID}-19 pandemic than those led by men. Media and public health officials have lauded the perceived gender-related influence on policies and strategies for reducing the deleterious effects of the pandemic. We examine this proposition by analyzing {COVID}-19-related deaths globally across countries led by men and women. While we find some limited support for lower reported fatality rates in countries led by women, they are not statistically significant. Country cultural values offer more substantive explanation for {COVID}-19 outcomes. We offer several potential explanations for the pervasive perception that countries led by women have fared better during the pandemic, including data selection bias and Western media bias that amplified the successes of women leaders in {OECD} countries.},
	pages = {e0244531},
	number = {12},
	journaltitle = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	shortjournal = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	author = {Windsor, Leah C. and Reinhardt, Gina Yannitell and Windsor, Alistair J. and Ostergard, Robert and Allen, Susan and Burns, Courtney and Giger, Jarod and Wood, Reed},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-12-31},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{COVID} 19, Culture, Democracy, Life expectancy, Pandemics, Public policy, Vietnam, Virus testing},
}

@article{johnson_gender_2020,
	title = {Gender and Political Leadership in a Time of {COVID}},
	volume = {16},
	issn = {1743-923X, 1743-9248},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/politics-and-gender/article/gender-and-political-leadership-in-a-time-of-covid/AA1F587847633222555949D9BD0FB5BC},
	doi = {10.1017/S1743923X2000029X},
	abstract = {The {COVID}-19 pandemic has undermined the division between the private sphere of the home and the public sphere of politics that has traditionally disadvantaged women political leaders. Whereas male political leaders historically drew on their traditional role as the male head of household to display forms of masculine protectionism toward citizens, women leaders are now able to draw on their traditional motherly role—for example, as the member of the household who traditionally cares for the sick—to display forms of feminine protectionism. As a result, international women leaders have managed to leverage women's role in the home to their advantage in the political sphere. Significantly, an appreciation of traditionally feminine attributes in women political leaders has been displayed in much media coverage, providing more favorable coverage of female political leaders than was previously the case.},
	pages = {943--950},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Politics \& Gender},
	author = {Johnson, Carol and Williams, Blair},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-12},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, Donald Trump, Jacinda Ardern, coronavirus, femininity, gender, masculinity, media, political leadership, politics of emotion},
}

@article{coscieme_women_2020,
	title = {Women in power: Female leadership and public health outcomes during the {COVID}-19 pandemic},
	rights = {© 2020, Posted by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory. This pre-print is available under a Creative Commons License (Attribution-{NoDerivs} 4.0 International), {CC} {BY}-{ND} 4.0, as described at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/},
	url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.13.20152397v1},
	doi = {10.1101/2020.07.13.20152397},
	shorttitle = {Women in power},
	abstract = {{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Abstract{\textless}/h3{\textgreater} {\textless}p{\textgreater}Some countries have been more successful than others at dealing with the {COVID}-19 pandemic. When we explore the different policy approaches adopted as well as the underlying socio-economic factors, we note an interesting set of correlations: countries led by women leaders have fared significantly better than those led by men on a wide range of dimensions concerning the global health crisis. In this paper, we analyze available data for 35 countries, focusing on the following variables: number of deaths per capita due to {COVID}-19, number of days with reported deaths, peaks in daily deaths, deaths occurred on the first day of lockdown, and excess mortality. Results show that countries governed by female leaders experienced much fewer {COVID}-19 deaths per capita and were more effective and rapid at flattening the epidemic’s curve, with lower peaks in daily deaths. We argue that there are both contingent and structural reasons that may explain these stark differences. First of all, most women-led governments were more prompt at introducing restrictive measures in the initial phase of the epidemic, prioritizing public health over economic concerns, and more successful at eliciting collaboration from the population. Secondly, most countries led by women are also those with a stronger focus on social equality, human needs and generosity. These societies are more receptive to political agendas that place social and environmental wellbeing at the core of national policymaking.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	pages = {2020.07.13.20152397},
	journaltitle = {{medRxiv}},
	author = {Coscieme, Luca and Fioramonti, Lorenzo and Mortensen, Lars F. and Pickett, Kate E. and Kubiszewski, Ida and Lovins, Hunter and Mcglade, Jacqueline and Ragnarsdóttir, Kristín Vala and Roberts, Debra and Costanza, Robert and Vogli, Roberto De and Wilkinson, Richard},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-07-15},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{aldrich_pandemic_2020,
	title = {Pandemic Performance: Women Leaders in the {COVID}-19 Crisis},
	volume = {16},
	issn = {1743-923X, 1743-9248},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/politics-and-gender/article/pandemic-performance-women-leaders-in-the-covid19-crisis/579B3EA9BE0CD8215EE2E74257252FED},
	doi = {10.1017/S1743923X20000549},
	shorttitle = {Pandemic Performance},
	abstract = {Media outlets have reported that women leaders around the globe are managing the {COVID}-19 crisis better than their male counterparts, responding faster and communicating better about pandemic policies. In this article, we examine empirical data on the timing of policy responses from the Coronavirus Government Response Tracker to determine whether and how countries led by women reacted differently to the pandemic. Exploring the relationship between the gender of leaders and legislators and the timing of stay-at-home orders, school closures, and coordinated public information campaigns, we find no statistical evidence supporting popular claims in the media. However, we find some evidence that the level of gender equality in legislatures is related to school closures, a policy with clear gendered consequences. These conclusions are an important first step in understanding the potentially gendered nature of the crisis response and identifying new avenues for research.},
	pages = {960--967},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Politics \& Gender},
	author = {Aldrich, Andrea S. and Lotito, Nicholas J.},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-12},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, leaders, pandemic, women},
}

@article{lasco_medical_2020,
	title = {Medical populism and the {COVID}-19 pandemic},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {1744-1692},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17441692.2020.1807581},
	doi = {10.1080/17441692.2020.1807581},
	abstract = {This paper uses the vocabulary of ‘medical populism’ to identify and analyse the political constructions of (and responses to) the {COVID}-19 pandemic in Brazil, the Philippines, and the United States from January to mid-July 2020, particularly by the countries’ heads of state: Jair Bolsonaro, Rodrigo Duterte, and Donald Trump. In all three countries, the leaders’ responses to the outbreak can be characterised by the following features: simplifying the pandemic by downplaying its impacts or touting easy solutions or treatments, spectacularizing their responses to crisis, forging divisions between the ‘people’ and dangerous ‘others’, and making medical knowledge claims to support the above. Taken together, the case studies illuminate the role of individual political actors in defining public health crises, suggesting that medical populism is not an exceptional, but a familiar response to them. This paper concludes by offering recommendations for global health in anticipating and responding to pandemics and infectious disease outbreaks.},
	pages = {1417--1429},
	number = {10},
	journaltitle = {Global Public Health},
	author = {Lasco, Gideon},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-10-02},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, global health, health crisis, infectious disease outbreaks, medical populism, pandemics},
}

@article{wondreys_victims_nodate,
	title = {Victims of the Pandemic? European Far-Right Parties and {COVID}-19},
	issn = {0090-5992, 1465-3923},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/nationalities-papers/article/victims-of-the-pandemic-european-farright-parties-and-covid19/638E1BEA8CF82CA068DBC46149BE9F42},
	doi = {10.1017/nps.2020.93},
	shorttitle = {Victims of the Pandemic?},
	abstract = {It has become received wisdom that the pandemic has “exposed” the political incompetence of far-right parties in government and that far-right parties in opposition have become its (first) “victims.” This is largely based on the generalization of one or two individual cases—most notably {US} president Donald Trump—who is the exception rather than the rule. This article provides a comparative analysis of far-right responses to the {COVID}-19 pandemic within the European Union. Based on theoretical insights from previous research, we expect the responses to reflect the main ideology and the internal heterogeneity of the contemporary far right as well as to show the increasing mainstreaming of its positions. We analyze four different, but related, aspects: (1) the narratives about {COVID}-19 from far-right parties; (2) the proposed solutions of far-right parties; (3) the electoral consequences of the pandemic for far-right parties; and (4) the success of far-right parties in dealing with the pandemic. Finally, in the discussion we shortly look ahead at the possible consequences of a highly likely second outbreak of {COVID}-19.},
	pages = {1--18},
	journaltitle = {Nationalities Papers},
	author = {Wondreys, Jakub and Mudde, Cas},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, Europe, far right, nationalism, pandemic},
}

@article{porcher_response2covid19_2020,
	title = {Response2covid19, a dataset of governments’ responses to {COVID}-19 all around the world},
	volume = {7},
	rights = {2020 The Author(s)},
	issn = {2052-4463},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-00757-y},
	doi = {10.1038/s41597-020-00757-y},
	abstract = {Following the {COVID}-19 outbreak, governments all around the world have implemented public health and economic measures to contain the spread of the virus and to support the economy. Public health measures include domestic lockdown, school closures and bans on mass gatherings among others. Economic measures cover wage support, cash transfers, interest rates cuts, tax cuts and delays, and support to exporters or importers. This paper introduces ‘Response2covid19’, a living dataset of governments’ responses to {COVID}-19. The dataset codes the various policy interventions with their dates at the country-level for more than 200 countries from January 1 to October 1, 2020 and is updated every month. The production of detailed data on the measures taken by governments can help generate robust evidence to support public health and economic decision making.},
	pages = {423},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Scientific Data},
	author = {Porcher, Simon},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-11-25},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{naqvi_covid-19_2021,
	title = {{COVID}-19 European regional tracker},
	rights = {© 2021, Posted by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory. This pre-print is available under a Creative Commons License (Attribution 4.0 International), {CC} {BY} 4.0, as described at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/},
	url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.15.21251788v2},
	doi = {10.1101/2021.02.15.21251788},
	abstract = {{\textless}h3{\textgreater}{ABSTRACT}{\textless}/h3{\textgreater} {\textless}p{\textgreater}This Tracker presents data on daily {COVID}-19 cases at the sub-national level for 26 European countries from January 2020 till present. Country-level data sources are identified and processed to form a homogenized panel at the {NUTS} 3 or {NUTS} 2 level, the two lowest standardized administrative units of Europe. The strengths and weaknesses of each country dataset are discussed in detail. The raw data, spatial layers, the code, and the final homogenized files are provided in an online repository for replication. The data highlights the spatial distribution of cases both within and across countries that can be utilized for a disaggregated analysis on the impacts of the pandemic. The Tracker is updated monthly to expand its coverage.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	pages = {2021.02.15.21251788},
	journaltitle = {{medRxiv}},
	author = {Naqvi, Asjad},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2021-02-18},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{yamada_covidistress_2021,
	title = {{COVIDiSTRESS} Global Survey dataset on psychological and behavioural consequences of the {COVID}-19 outbreak},
	volume = {8},
	rights = {2021 The Author(s)},
	issn = {2052-4463},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-00784-9},
	doi = {10.1038/s41597-020-00784-9},
	abstract = {This N = 173,426 social science dataset was collected through the collaborative {COVIDiSTRESS} Global Survey – an open science effort to improve understanding of the human experiences of the 2020 {COVID}-19 pandemic between 30th March and 30th May, 2020. The dataset allows a cross-cultural study of psychological and behavioural responses to the Coronavirus pandemic and associated government measures like cancellation of public functions and stay at home orders implemented in many countries. The dataset contains demographic background variables as well as measures of Asian Disease Problem, perceived stress ({PSS}-10), availability of social provisions ({SPS}-10), trust in various authorities, trust in governmental measures to contain the virus ({OECD} trust), personality traits ({BFF}-15), information behaviours, agreement with the level of government intervention, and compliance with preventive measures, along with a rich pool of exploratory variables and written experiences. A global consortium from 39 countries and regions worked together to build and translate a survey with variables of shared interests, and recruited participants in 47 languages and dialects. Raw plus cleaned data and dynamic visualizations are available.},
	pages = {3},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Scientific Data},
	author = {Yamada, Yuki and Ćepulić, Dominik-Borna and Coll-Martín, Tao and Debove, Stéphane and Gautreau, Guillaume and Han, Hyemin and Rasmussen, Jesper and Tran, Thao P. and Travaglino, Giovanni A. and Lieberoth, Andreas},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2021-01-04},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{zheng_hit-covid_2020,
	title = {{HIT}-{COVID}, a global database tracking public health interventions to {COVID}-19},
	volume = {7},
	rights = {2020 The Author(s)},
	issn = {2052-4463},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-00610-2},
	doi = {10.1038/s41597-020-00610-2},
	abstract = {The {COVID}-19 pandemic has sparked unprecedented public health and social measures ({PHSM}) by national and local governments, including border restrictions, school closures, mandatory facemask use and stay at home orders. Quantifying the effectiveness of these interventions in reducing disease transmission is key to rational policy making in response to the current and future pandemics. In order to estimate the effectiveness of these interventions, detailed descriptions of their timelines, scale and scope are needed. The Health Intervention Tracking for {COVID}-19 ({HIT}-{COVID}) is a curated and standardized global database that catalogues the implementation and relaxation of {COVID}-19 related {PHSM}. With a team of over 200 volunteer contributors, we assembled policy timelines for a range of key {PHSM} aimed at reducing {COVID}-19 risk for the national and first administrative levels (e.g. provinces and states) globally, including details such as the degree of implementation and targeted populations. We continue to maintain and adapt this database to the changing {COVID}-19 landscape so it can serve as a resource for researchers and policymakers alike.},
	pages = {286},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Scientific Data},
	author = {Zheng, Qulu and Jones, Forrest K. and Leavitt, Sarah V. and Ung, Lawson and Labrique, Alain B. and Peters, David H. and Lee, Elizabeth C. and Azman, Andrew S.},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-08-27},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{capano_mobilizing_2020,
	title = {Mobilizing Policy (In)Capacity to Fight {COVID}-19: Understanding Variations in State Responses},
	volume = {39},
	issn = {1449-4035},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/14494035.2020.1787628},
	doi = {10.1080/14494035.2020.1787628},
	shorttitle = {Mobilizing Policy (In)Capacity to Fight {COVID}-19},
	abstract = {The objective of this collection of essays is to gain insights into the different national-level state responses to {COVID}-19 around the world and the conditions that shaped them. The pandemic offers a natural experiment wherein the policy problem governments faced was the same but the responses they made were different, creating opportunities for comparison of both the kinds of policy tools being used and the factors that accounted for their choice. Accordingly, after surveying on-line databases of policy tools used in the pandemic and subjecting these to topic modelling to reveal the characteristics of a ‘standard’ national pandemic response, we discuss the similarities and differences found in specific responses. This is done with reference to the nature and level of policy capacity of respective governments, highlighting the critical roles played by (in)adequate preparation and lesson-drawing from past experiences with similar outbreaks or crises. Taken together the articles show how the national responses to the {COVID}-19 pandemic were shaped by the opportunity and capacity each government had to learn from previous pandemics and their capacity to operationalize and build political support for the standard portfolio of policy measures deployed to deal with the crisis. However, they also show how other factors such as the nature of national leadership, the organization of government and civil society, and blindspots towards the vulnerabilities of certain population segments also helped to shape policy responses to the pandemic.},
	pages = {285--308},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Policy and Society},
	author = {Capano, Giliberto and Howlett, Michael and Jarvis, Darryl S. L. and Ramesh, M. and Goyal, Nihit},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-07-02},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, crisis management, pandemics, policy capacity, policy mixes, policy styles, policy tools},
}

@article{islam_physical_2020,
	title = {Physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019: natural experiment in 149 countries},
	volume = {370},
	rights = {© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under {CC}                 {BY}-{NC}. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by                 {BMJ}.. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial ({CC} {BY}-{NC} 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.},
	issn = {1756-1833},
	url = {https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m2743},
	doi = {10.1136/bmj.m2743},
	shorttitle = {Physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019},
	abstract = {Objective To evaluate the association between physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) globally.
Design Natural experiment using interrupted time series analysis, with results synthesised using meta-analysis.
Setting 149 countries or regions, with data on daily reported cases of covid-19 from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and data on the physical distancing policies from the Oxford covid-19 Government Response Tracker.
Participants Individual countries or regions that implemented one of the five physical distancing interventions (closures of schools, workplaces, and public transport, restrictions on mass gatherings and public events, and restrictions on movement (lockdowns)) between 1 January and 30 May 2020.
Main outcome measure Incidence rate ratios ({IRRs}) of covid-19 before and after implementation of physical distancing interventions, estimated using data to 30 May 2020 or 30 days post-intervention, whichever occurred first. {IRRs} were synthesised across countries using random effects meta-analysis.
Results On average, implementation of any physical distancing intervention was associated with an overall reduction in covid-19 incidence of 13\% ({IRR} 0.87, 95\% confidence interval 0.85 to 0.89; n=149 countries). Closure of public transport was not associated with any additional reduction in covid-19 incidence when the other four physical distancing interventions were in place (pooled {IRR} with and without public transport closure was 0.85, 0.82 to 0.88; n=72, and 0.87, 0.84 to 0.91; n=32, respectively). Data from 11 countries also suggested similar overall effectiveness (pooled {IRR} 0.85, 0.81 to 0.89) when school closures, workplace closures, and restrictions on mass gatherings were in place. In terms of sequence of interventions, earlier implementation of lockdown was associated with a larger reduction in covid-19 incidence (pooled {IRR} 0.86, 0.84 to 0.89; n=105) compared with a delayed implementation of lockdown after other physical distancing interventions were in place (pooled {IRR} 0.90, 0.87 to 0.94; n=41).
Conclusions Physical distancing interventions were associated with reductions in the incidence of covid-19 globally. No evidence was found of an additional effect of public transport closure when the other four physical distancing measures were in place. Earlier implementation of lockdown was associated with a larger reduction in the incidence of covid-19. These findings might support policy decisions as countries prepare to impose or lift physical distancing measures in current or future epidemic waves.},
	pages = {m2743},
	journaltitle = {{BMJ}},
	shortjournal = {{BMJ}},
	author = {Islam, Nazrul and Sharp, Stephen J. and Chowell, Gerardo and Shabnam, Sharmin and Kawachi, Ichiro and Lacey, Ben and Massaro, Joseph M. and D’Agostino, Ralph B. and White, Martin},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-07-15},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{ofosu_pre-analysis_nodate,
	title = {Pre-Analysis Plans: An Early Stocktaking},
	issn = {1537-5927, 1541-0986},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/preanalysis-plans-an-early-stocktaking/94E7FAE76001C45A04E8F5E272C773CE},
	doi = {10.1017/S1537592721000931},
	shorttitle = {Pre-Analysis Plans},
	abstract = {Pre-analysis plans ({PAPs}) have been championed as a solution to the problem of research credibility, but without any evidence that {PAPs} actually bolster the credibility of research. We analyze a representative sample of 195 {PAPs} registered on the Evidence in Governance and Politics ({EGAP}) and American Economic Association ({AEA}) registration platforms to assess whether {PAPs} registered in the early days of pre-registration (2011–2016) were sufficiently clear, precise, and comprehensive to achieve their objective of preventing “fishing” and reducing the scope for post-hoc adjustment of research hypotheses. We also analyze a subset of ninety-three {PAPs} from projects that resulted in publicly available papers to ascertain how faithfully they adhere to their pre-registered specifications and hypotheses. We find significant variation in the extent to which {PAPs} registered during this period accomplished the goals they were designed to achieve. We discuss these findings in light of both the costs and benefits of pre-registration, showing how our results speak to the various arguments that have been made in support of and against {PAPs}. We also highlight the norms and institutions that will need to be strengthened to augment the power of {PAPs} to improve research credibility and to create incentives for researchers to invest in both producing and policing them.},
	pages = {1--17},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Ofosu, George K. and Posner, Daniel N.},
	urldate = {2021-04-13},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{desvars-larrive_structured_2020,
	title = {A structured open dataset of government interventions in response to {COVID}-19},
	volume = {7},
	rights = {2020 The Author(s)},
	issn = {2052-4463},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-00609-9},
	doi = {10.1038/s41597-020-00609-9},
	abstract = {In response to the {COVID}-19 pandemic, governments have implemented a wide range of non-pharmaceutical interventions ({NPIs}). Monitoring and documenting government strategies during the {COVID}-19 crisis is crucial to understand the progression of the epidemic. Following a content analysis strategy of existing public information sources, we developed a specific hierarchical coding scheme for {NPIs}. We generated a comprehensive structured dataset of government interventions and their respective timelines of implementation. To improve transparency and motivate collaborative validation process, information sources are shared via an open library. We also provide codes that enable users to visualise the dataset. Standardization and structure of the dataset facilitate inter-country comparison and the assessment of the impacts of different {NPI} categories on the epidemic parameters, population health indicators, the economy, and human rights, among others. This dataset provides an in-depth insight of the government strategies and can be a valuable tool for developing relevant preparedness plans for pandemic. We intend to further develop and update this dataset until the end of December 2020.},
	pages = {285},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Scientific Data},
	author = {Desvars-Larrive, Amélie and Dervic, Elma and Haug, Nils and Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas and Chen, Jiaying and Di Natale, Anna and Lasser, Jana and Gliga, Diana S. and Roux, Alexandra and Sorger, Johannes and Chakraborty, Abhijit and Ten, Alexandr and Dervic, Alija and Pacheco, Andrea and Jurczak, Ania and Cserjan, David and Lederhilger, Diana and Bulska, Dominika and Berishaj, Dorontinë and Tames, Erwin Flores and Álvarez, Francisco S. and Takriti, Huda and Korbel, Jan and Reddish, Jenny and Grzymała-Moszczyńska, Joanna and Stangl, Johannes and Hadziavdic, Lamija and Stoeger, Laura and Gooriah, Leana and Geyrhofer, Lukas and Ferreira, Marcia R. and Bartoszek, Marta and Vierlinger, Rainer and Holder, Samantha and Haberfellner, Simon and Ahne, Verena and Reisch, Viktoria and Servedio, Vito D. P. and Chen, Xiao and Pocasangre-Orellana, Xochilt María and Garncarek, Zuzanna and Garcia, David and Thurner, Stefan},
	urldate = {2021-03-31},
	date = {2020-08-27},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{hale_global_2021,
	title = {A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford {COVID}-19 Government Response Tracker)},
	rights = {2021 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited part of Springer Nature},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01079-8},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-021-01079-8},
	abstract = {{COVID}-19 has prompted unprecedented government action around the world. We introduce the Oxford {COVID}-19 Government Response Tracker ({OxCGRT}), a dataset that addresses the need for continuously updated, readily usable and comparable information on policy measures. From 1 January 2020, the data capture government policies related to closure and containment, health and economic policy for more than 180 countries, plus several countries’ subnational jurisdictions. Policy responses are recorded on ordinal or continuous scales for 19 policy areas, capturing variation in degree of response. We present two motivating applications of the data, highlighting patterns in the timing of policy adoption and subsequent policy easing and reimposition, and illustrating how the data can be combined with behavioural and epidemiological indicators. This database enables researchers and policymakers to explore the empirical effects of policy responses on the spread of {COVID}-19 cases and deaths, as well as on economic and social welfare.},
	pages = {1--10},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	author = {Hale, Thomas and Angrist, Noam and Goldszmidt, Rafael and Kira, Beatriz and Petherick, Anna and Phillips, Toby and Webster, Samuel and Cameron-Blake, Emily and Hallas, Laura and Majumdar, Saptarshi and Tatlow, Helen},
	urldate = {2021-03-31},
	date = {2021-03-08},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{tahk_nonparametric_2018,
	title = {Nonparametric Ideal-Point Estimation and Inference},
	volume = {26},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/nonparametric-idealpoint-estimation-and-inference/CC16298804A215465D52E772DFFE2863},
	doi = {10.1017/pan.2017.38},
	abstract = {Existing approaches to estimating ideal points offer no method for consistent estimation or inference without relying on strong parametric assumptions. In this paper, I introduce a nonparametric approach to ideal-point estimation and inference that goes beyond these limitations. I show that some inferences about the relative positions of two pairs of legislators can be made with minimal assumptions. This information can be combined across different possible choices of the pairs to provide estimates and perform hypothesis tests for all legislators without additional assumptions. I demonstrate the usefulness of these methods in two applications to Supreme Court data, one testing for ideological movement by a single justice and the other testing for multidimensional voting behavior in different decades.},
	pages = {131--146},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Tahk, Alexander},
	urldate = {2021-03-23},
	date = {2018-04},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {hypothesis testing, ideal-point estimation, nonparametric analysis, nonparametric estimation},
}

@article{jamal_democracy_2008,
	title = {The Democracy Barometers (Part {II}): Attitudes in the Arab World},
	volume = {19},
	issn = {1086-3214},
	url = {https://muse.jhu.edu/article/230461},
	doi = {10.1353/jod.2008.0004},
	shorttitle = {The Democracy Barometers (Part {II})},
	abstract = {The Arab Barometer finds widespread support for democracy in Arab world. Definitions of democracy vary considerably, however, with some citizens emphasizing government accountability and political freedoms and while others stress instrumental considerations, including effectiveness in meeting economic needs. The Arab Barometer also finds that support for pluralism, tolerance and other democratic values are present to the same degree among those who favor secular democracy and those who favor a political system that is both democratic and Islamic. Finally, in contrast to some popular misconceptions, personal religiosity does not account for variance in support for democracy, in a preference for secular rather than Islamic democracy, or in attitudes toward authoritarian political formulae.},
	pages = {97--111},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Democracy},
	author = {Jamal, Amaney and Tessler, Mark},
	urldate = {2021-03-15},
	date = {2008},
}

@article{wolf_degage_2018,
	title = {‘Dégage {RCD}!’ The rise of internal dissent in Ben Ali’s Constitutional Democratic Rally and the Tunisian uprisings},
	volume = {23},
	issn = {1362-9395},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13629395.2017.1287629},
	doi = {10.1080/13629395.2017.1287629},
	abstract = {This article examines the historical evolution of Tunisia’s Constitutional Democratic Rally ({RCD}) from its beginnings in 1987, when President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali took power, until his ousting in 2011 when the party was outlawed. I argue that the {RCD} evolved from a political force with wide popular support during a short democratic era (1987–89) into a repressive interest group in the 1990s, when the regime cracked down on political dissidents and popular freedoms whilst rewarding party members with lucrative benefits. In the 2000s the {RCD} adopted a quasi-mafiosi structure that profited the Ben Ali family, which increasingly monopolized economic and political power. Tunisia’s transformation into a near dynasty marginalized many {RCD} members and its wider networks, a central dynamic to understand Ben Ali’s ousting in 2011.},
	pages = {245--264},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Mediterranean Politics},
	author = {Wolf, Anne},
	urldate = {2021-03-15},
	date = {2018-04-03},
}

@article{ge_who_2019,
	title = {Who Fills Institutional Voids? Entrepreneurs’ Utilization of Political and Family Ties in Emerging Markets},
	volume = {43},
	issn = {1042-2587},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/1042258718773175},
	doi = {10.1177/1042258718773175},
	shorttitle = {Who Fills Institutional Voids?},
	abstract = {How do entrepreneurs fill institutional voids that prevail in emerging markets? By incorporating insights from both the political and family embeddedness perspectives, we argue that both political ties and family ties can compensate for gaps in the institutional infrastructure of emerging markets. Specifically, we propose and examine the partial substitutability of family ties for political ties as a means of filling institutional voids. Our empirical work based on Chinese private enterprises strongly supports this argument. We also find that the effective utilization of family ties is contingent on both family members’ motivation (willingness to use resources for the firm) and entrepreneurs’ mobilization (authority in the family to mobilize family members). This study bridges the literature on political ties and family ties to understand their respective costs and benefits and therefore advances our understanding of entrepreneurs’ networking strategies in emerging markets.},
	pages = {1124--1147},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice},
	shortjournal = {Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice},
	author = {Ge, Jianhua and Carney, Michael and Kellermanns, Franz},
	urldate = {2021-03-15},
	date = {2019-11-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {emerging markets, family tie, institutional voids, political tie},
}

@article{diba_explosive_1988,
	title = {Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?},
	volume = {78},
	issn = {0002-8282},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/1809149},
	pages = {520--530},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {The American Economic Review},
	author = {Diba, Behzad T. and Grossman, Herschel I.},
	urldate = {2021-03-08},
	date = {1988},
}

@article{imai_use_nodate,
	title = {On the Use of Two-Way Fixed Effects Regression Models for Causal Inference with Panel Data},
	issn = {1047-1987, 1476-4989},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/on-the-use-of-twoway-fixed-effects-regression-models-for-causal-inference-with-panel-data/F10006D0210407C5F9C7CAC1EEE3EF0D},
	doi = {10.1017/pan.2020.33},
	abstract = {The two-way linear fixed effects regression (2FE) has become a default method for estimating causal effects from panel data. Many applied researchers use the 2FE estimator to adjust for unobserved unit-specific and time-specific confounders at the same time. Unfortunately, we demonstrate that the ability of the 2FE model to simultaneously adjust for these two types of unobserved confounders critically relies upon the assumption of linear additive effects. Another common justification for the use of the 2FE estimator is based on its equivalence to the difference-in-differences estimator under the simplest setting with two groups and two time periods. We show that this equivalence does not hold under more general settings commonly encountered in applied research. Instead, we prove that the multi-period difference-in-differences estimator is equivalent to the weighted 2FE estimator with some observations having negative weights. These analytical results imply that in contrast to the popular belief, the 2FE estimator does not represent a design-based, nonparametric estimation strategy for causal inference. Instead, its validity fundamentally rests on the modeling assumptions.},
	pages = {1--11},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Imai, Kosuke and Kim, In Song},
	urldate = {2021-03-08},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {difference-in-differences, longitudinal data, matching, unobserved confounding, weighted least squares},
}

@article{benstead_survey_2018,
	title = {Survey Research in the Arab World: Challenges and Opportunities},
	volume = {51},
	issn = {1049-0965, 1537-5935},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/survey-research-in-the-arab-world-challenges-and-opportunities/FE34DC221FAEC576F0DA96E863D7AADA},
	doi = {10.1017/S1049096518000112},
	shorttitle = {Survey Research in the Arab World},
	abstract = {Survey research has expanded in the Arab world since the 1980s. The Arab Spring marked a watershed when surveying became possible in Tunisia and Libya, and researchers added additional questions needed to answer theoretical and policy questions. Almost every Arab country now is included in the Arab Barometer or World Values Survey. Yet, some scholars express the view that the Arab survey context is more challenging than that of other regions or that respondents will not answer honestly, due to authoritarianism. I argue that this position reflects biases that assume “Arab exceptionalism” more than fair and objective assessments of data quality. Based on cross-national data analysis, I found evidence of systematically missing data in all regions and political regimes globally. These challenges and the increasing openness of some Arab countries to survey research should spur studies on the data-collection process in the Middle East and beyond.},
	pages = {535--542},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {{PS}: Political Science \& Politics},
	author = {Benstead, Lindsay J.},
	urldate = {2021-03-07},
	date = {2018-07},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{bell_explaining_2015,
	title = {Explaining Fixed Effects: Random Effects Modeling of Time-Series Cross-Sectional and Panel Data*},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {2049-8470, 2049-8489},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/explaining-fixed-effects-random-effects-modeling-of-timeseries-crosssectional-and-panel-data/0334A27557D15848549120FE8ECD8D63},
	doi = {10.1017/psrm.2014.7},
	shorttitle = {Explaining Fixed Effects},
	abstract = {This article challenges Fixed Effects ({FE}) modeling as the ‘default’ for time-series-cross-sectional and panel data. Understanding different within and between effects is crucial when choosing modeling strategies. The downside of Random Effects ({RE}) modeling—correlated lower-level covariates and higher-level residuals—is omitted-variable bias, solvable with Mundlak's (1978a) formulation. Consequently, {RE} can provide everything that {FE} promises and more, as confirmed by Monte-Carlo simulations, which additionally show problems with Plümper and Troeger's {FE} Vector Decomposition method when data are unbalanced. As well as incorporating time-invariant variables, {RE} models are readily extendable, with random coefficients, cross-level interactions and complex variance functions. We argue not simply for technical solutions to endogeneity, but for the substantive importance of context/heterogeneity, modeled using {RE}. The implications extend beyond political science to all multilevel datasets. However, omitted variables could still bias estimated higher-level variable effects; as with any model, care is required in interpretation.},
	pages = {133--153},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Political Science Research and Methods},
	author = {Bell, Andrew and Jones, Kelvyn},
	urldate = {2021-02-25},
	date = {2015-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{beramendi_intra-elite_2018,
	title = {Intra-Elite Competition and Long-Run Fiscal Development},
	volume = {81},
	issn = {0022-3816},
	url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/700273},
	doi = {10.1086/700273},
	abstract = {This paper exploits an original database that spans 30-plus developed and developing nations between 1870 and 2010 to perform the first empirical analysis of the relationship between historical levels of intra-elite competition and fiscal development over the long run. We argue that the timing of industrialization affects the extent of historical competition between agricultural and capitalist elites, which in turn helps shape key initial decisions over fiscal size and structure. Under “early” industrialization, intra-elite competition levels tended to be greater, promoting fiscal development characterized by high overall taxation and tax progressivity. Under “late” industrialization, by contrast, agricultural elites were more likely to retain political dominance, promoting fiscal states characterized by low overall taxation and tax regressivity. We show evidence for a positive, statistically significant, and robust relationship between historical intra-elite competition levels and long-run fiscal development. This focus on intra-elite competition improves our understanding of the fundamental determinants of cross-national fiscal differences today.},
	pages = {49--65},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of Politics},
	shortjournal = {The Journal of Politics},
	author = {Beramendi, Pablo and Dincecco, Mark and Rogers, Melissa},
	urldate = {2021-02-22},
	date = {2018-11-16},
}

@article{yardimci-geyikci_rethinking_2018,
	title = {Rethinking the Tunisian miracle: a party politics view},
	volume = {25},
	issn = {1351-0347},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2017.1422120},
	doi = {10.1080/13510347.2017.1422120},
	shorttitle = {Rethinking the Tunisian miracle},
	abstract = {Five years on from the Tunisian revolution, Tunisia stands as the sole success story of the Arab Spring. The country since then has managed to adopt a pluralist and democratic constitution, and held three free and fair elections. Accordingly, in the eyes of several observers, Tunisia is now in the process of consolidating its new democracy. However, the reality on the ground seems much gloomier, as most recent opinion surveys suggest that there is a significant degree of dissatisfaction, not only with political parties and Parliament but also with the very institution of democracy. Nevertheless, what accounts for this change? After the collapse of the long-lasting and oppressive Ben Ali regime, how, just in five years, has Tunisians’ confidence in the democratic process changed? This article accounts for this state of affairs from a party politics view, arguing that political parties, which are the main protagonists of the consolidation process, fail to fulfill their role of acquiring legitimacy for the new regime. While party–state relations seem to be stabilized due to the inclusiveness of the constitution-making process, both inter-party relationships and the relationship between parties and society suffer from numerous flaws which, in turn, hamper the democratic consolidation process.},
	pages = {787--803},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {Democratization},
	author = {Yardımcı-Geyikçi, Şebnem and Tür, Özlem},
	urldate = {2021-02-21},
	date = {2018-07-04},
	keywords = {Ennahda, Nidaa Tounes, Party politics, Tunisia, democratic consolidation},
}

@article{yardimci-geyikci_rethinking_2018-1,
	title = {Rethinking the Tunisian miracle: a party politics view},
	volume = {25},
	issn = {1351-0347},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2017.1422120},
	doi = {10.1080/13510347.2017.1422120},
	shorttitle = {Rethinking the Tunisian miracle},
	abstract = {Five years on from the Tunisian revolution, Tunisia stands as the sole success story of the Arab Spring. The country since then has managed to adopt a pluralist and democratic constitution, and held three free and fair elections. Accordingly, in the eyes of several observers, Tunisia is now in the process of consolidating its new democracy. However, the reality on the ground seems much gloomier, as most recent opinion surveys suggest that there is a significant degree of dissatisfaction, not only with political parties and Parliament but also with the very institution of democracy. Nevertheless, what accounts for this change? After the collapse of the long-lasting and oppressive Ben Ali regime, how, just in five years, has Tunisians’ confidence in the democratic process changed? This article accounts for this state of affairs from a party politics view, arguing that political parties, which are the main protagonists of the consolidation process, fail to fulfill their role of acquiring legitimacy for the new regime. While party–state relations seem to be stabilized due to the inclusiveness of the constitution-making process, both inter-party relationships and the relationship between parties and society suffer from numerous flaws which, in turn, hamper the democratic consolidation process.},
	pages = {787--803},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {Democratization},
	author = {Yardımcı-Geyikçi, Şebnem and Tür, Özlem},
	urldate = {2021-02-21},
	date = {2018-07-04},
	keywords = {Ennahda, Nidaa Tounes, Party politics, Tunisia, democratic consolidation},
}

@article{bauch_estimating_2021,
	title = {Estimating the {COVID}-19 R number: a bargain with the devil?},
	volume = {21},
	issn = {1473-3099, 1474-4457},
	url = {https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30840-9/abstract},
	doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30840-9},
	shorttitle = {Estimating the {COVID}-19 R number},
	abstract = {The deeper understanding Faust {soughtCould} not from the Devil be bought.But now we
are {toldBy} theorists {boldAll} we need know is R0.1Robert May, 1936–2020},
	pages = {151--153},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The Lancet Infectious Diseases},
	shortjournal = {The Lancet Infectious Diseases},
	author = {Bauch, Chris T.},
	urldate = {2021-02-13},
	date = {2021-02-01},
}

@article{woolhandler_public_2021,
	title = {Public policy and health in the Trump era},
	volume = {0},
	issn = {0140-6736, 1474-547X},
	url = {https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32545-9/abstract},
	doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(20)32545-9},
	abstract = {This report by the Lancet Commission on Public Policy and Health in the Trump Era
assesses the repercussions of President Donald Trump's health-related policies and
examines the failures and social schisms that enabled his election. Trump exploited
low and middle-income white people's anger over their deteriorating life prospects
to mobilise racial animus and xenophobia and enlist their support for policies that
benefit high-income people and corporations and threaten health. His signature legislative
achievement, a trillion-dollar tax cut for corporations and high-income individuals,
opened a budget hole that he used to justify cutting food subsidies and health care.},
	number = {0},
	journaltitle = {The Lancet},
	shortjournal = {The Lancet},
	author = {Woolhandler, Steffie and Himmelstein, David U. and Ahmed, Sameer and Bailey, Zinzi and Bassett, Mary T. and Bird, Michael and Bor, Jacob and Bor, David and Carrasquillo, Olveen and Chowkwanyun, Merlin and Dickman, Samuel L. and Fisher, Samantha and Gaffney, Adam and Galea, Sandro and Gottfried, Richard N. and Grumbach, Kevin and Guyatt, Gordon and Hansen, Helena and Landrigan, Philip J. and Lighty, Michael and {McKee}, Martin and {McCormick}, Danny and {McGregor}, Alecia and Mirza, Reza and Morris, Juliana E. and Mukherjee, Joia S. and Nestle, Marion and Prine, Linda and Saadi, Altaf and Schiff, Davida and Shapiro, Martin and Tesema, Lello and Venkataramani, Atheendar},
	urldate = {2021-02-13},
	date = {2021-02-10},
}

@article{becker_development_2021,
	title = {Development and dissemination of infectious disease dynamic transmission models during the {COVID}-19 pandemic: what can we learn from other pathogens and how can we move forward?},
	volume = {3},
	issn = {2589-7500},
	url = {https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landig/article/PIIS2589-7500(20)30268-5/abstract},
	doi = {10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30268-5},
	shorttitle = {Development and dissemination of infectious disease dynamic transmission models during the {COVID}-19 pandemic},
	abstract = {{\textless}h2{\textgreater}Summary{\textless}/h2{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}The current {COVID}-19 pandemic has resulted in the unprecedented development and integration of infectious disease dynamic transmission models into policy making and public health practice. Models offer a systematic way to investigate transmission dynamics and produce short-term and long-term predictions that explicitly integrate assumptions about biological, behavioural, and epidemiological processes that affect disease transmission, burden, and surveillance. Models have been valuable tools during the {COVID}-19 pandemic and other infectious disease outbreaks, able to generate possible trajectories of disease burden, evaluate the effectiveness of intervention strategies, and estimate key transmission variables. Particularly given the rapid pace of model development, evaluation, and integration with decision making in emergency situations, it is necessary to understand the benefits and pitfalls of transmission models. We review and highlight key aspects of the history of infectious disease dynamic models, the role of rigorous testing and evaluation, the integration with data, and the successful application of models to guide public health. Rather than being an expansive history of infectious disease models, this Review focuses on how the integration of modelling can continue to be advanced through policy and practice in appropriate and conscientious ways to support the current pandemic response.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	pages = {e41--e50},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Lancet Digital Health},
	shortjournal = {The Lancet Digital Health},
	author = {Becker, Alexander D. and Grantz, Kyra H. and Hegde, Sonia T. and Bérubé, Sophie and Cummings, Derek A. T. and Wesolowski, Amy},
	urldate = {2021-02-13},
	date = {2021-01-01},
}

@article{li_temporal_2021,
	title = {The temporal association of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions with the time-varying reproduction number (R) of {SARS}-{CoV}-2: a modelling study across 131 countries},
	volume = {21},
	issn = {1473-3099, 1474-4457},
	url = {https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30785-4/abstract},
	doi = {10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30785-4},
	shorttitle = {The temporal association of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions with the time-varying reproduction number (R) of {SARS}-{CoV}-2},
	abstract = {{\textless}h2{\textgreater}Summary{\textless}/h2{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Background{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}Non-pharmaceutical interventions ({NPIs}) were implemented by many countries to reduce the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ({SARS}-{CoV}-2), the causal agent of {COVID}-19. A resurgence in {COVID}-19 cases has been reported in some countries that lifted some of these {NPIs}. We aimed to understand the association of introducing and lifting {NPIs} with the level of transmission of {SARS}-{CoV}-2, as measured by the time-varying reproduction number (\textit{R}), from a broad perspective across 131 countries.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Methods{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}In this modelling study, we linked data on daily country-level estimates of \textit{R} from the London School of Hygiene \& Tropical Medicine (London, {UK}) with data on country-specific policies on {NPIs} from the Oxford {COVID}-19 Government Response Tracker, available between Jan 1 and July 20, 2020. We defined a phase as a time period when all {NPIs} remained the same, and we divided the timeline of each country into individual phases based on the status of {NPIs}. We calculated the \textit{R} ratio as the ratio between the daily \textit{R} of each phase and the \textit{R} from the last day of the previous phase (ie, before the {NPI} status changed) as a measure of the association between {NPI} status and transmission of {SARS}-{CoV}-2. We then modelled the \textit{R} ratio using a log-linear regression with introduction and relaxation of each {NPI} as independent variables for each day of the first 28 days after the change in the corresponding {NPI}. In an ad-hoc analysis, we estimated the effect of reintroducing multiple {NPIs} with the greatest effects, and in the observed sequence, to tackle the possible resurgence of {SARS}-{CoV}-2.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Findings{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}790 phases from 131 countries were included in the analysis. A decreasing trend over time in the \textit{R} ratio was found following the introduction of school closure, workplace closure, public events ban, requirements to stay at home, and internal movement limits; the reduction in \textit{R} ranged from 3\% to 24\% on day 28 following the introduction compared with the last day before introduction, although the reduction was significant only for public events ban (\textit{R} ratio 0·76, 95\% {CI} 0·58–1·00); for all other {NPIs}, the upper bound of the 95\% {CI} was above 1. An increasing trend over time in the \textit{R} ratio was found following the relaxation of school closure, bans on public events, bans on public gatherings of more than ten people, requirements to stay at home, and internal movement limits; the increase in \textit{R} ranged from 11\% to 25\% on day 28 following the relaxation compared with the last day before relaxation, although the increase was significant only for school reopening (\textit{R} ratio 1·24, 95\% {CI} 1·00–1·52) and lifting bans on public gatherings of more than ten people (1·25, 1·03–1·51); for all other {NPIs}, the lower bound of the 95\% {CI} was below 1. It took a median of 8 days ({IQR} 6–9) following the introduction of an {NPI} to observe 60\% of the maximum reduction in \textit{R} and even longer (17 days [14–20]) following relaxation to observe 60\% of the maximum increase in \textit{R}. In response to a possible resurgence of {COVID}-19, a control strategy of banning public events and public gatherings of more than ten people was estimated to reduce \textit{R}, with an \textit{R} ratio of 0·71 (95\% {CI} 0·55–0·93) on day 28, decreasing to 0·62 (0·47–0·82) on day 28 if measures to close workplaces were added, 0·58 (0·41–0·81) if measures to close workplaces and internal movement restrictions were added, and 0·48 (0·32–0·71) if measures to close workplaces, internal movement restrictions, and requirements to stay at home were added.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Interpretation{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}Individual {NPIs}, including school closure, workplace closure, public events ban, ban on gatherings of more than ten people, requirements to stay at home, and internal movement limits, are associated with reduced transmission of {SARS}-{CoV}-2, but the effect of introducing and lifting these {NPIs} is delayed by 1–3 weeks, with this delay being longer when lifting {NPIs}. These findings provide additional evidence that can inform policy-maker decisions on the timing of introducing and lifting different {NPIs}, although \textit{R} should be interpreted in the context of its known limitations.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}{\textless}h3{\textgreater}Funding{\textless}/h3{\textgreater}{\textless}p{\textgreater}Wellcome Trust Institutional Strategic Support Fund and Data-Driven Innovation initiative.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	pages = {193--202},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The Lancet Infectious Diseases},
	shortjournal = {The Lancet Infectious Diseases},
	author = {Li, You and Campbell, Harry and Kulkarni, Durga and Harpur, Alice and Nundy, Madhurima and Wang, Xin and Nair, Harish},
	urldate = {2021-02-12},
	date = {2021-02-01},
}

@article{abouk_immediate_2021,
	title = {The Immediate Effect of {COVID}-19 Policies on Social-Distancing Behavior in the United States},
	issn = {0033-3549},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0033354920976575},
	doi = {10.1177/0033354920976575},
	abstract = {{ObjectiveAlthough} anecdotal evidence indicates the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 ({COVID}-19) social-distancing policies, their effectiveness in relation to what is driven by public awareness and voluntary actions needs to be determined. We evaluated the effectiveness of the 6 most common social-distancing policies in the United States (statewide stay-at-home orders, limited stay-at-home orders, nonessential business closures, bans on large gatherings, school closure mandates, and limits on restaurants and bars) during the early stage of the pandemic.{MethodsWe} applied difference-in-differences and event-study methodologies to evaluate the effect of the 6 social-distancing policies on Google-released aggregated, anonymized daily location data on movement trends over time by state for all 50 states and the District of Columbia in 6 location categories: retail and recreation, grocery stores and pharmacies, parks, transit stations, workplaces, and residences. We compared the outcome of interest in states that adopted {COVID}-19?related policies with states that did not adopt such policies, before and after these policies took effect during February 15?April 25, 2020.{ResultsStatewide} stay-at-home orders had the strongest effect on reducing out-of-home mobility and increased the time people spent at home by an estimated 2.5 percentage points (15.2\%) from before to after policies took effect. Limits on restaurants and bars ranked second and resulted in an increase in presence at home by an estimated 1.4 percentage points (8.5\%). The other 4 policies did not significantly reduce mobility.{ConclusionStatewide} stay-at-home orders and limits on bars and restaurants were most closely linked to reduced mobility in the early stages of the {COVID}-19 pandemic, whereas the potential benefits of other such policies may have already been reaped from voluntary social distancing. Further research is needed to understand how the effect of social-distancing policies changes as voluntary social distancing wanes during later stages of a pandemic.},
	pages = {0033354920976575},
	journaltitle = {Public Health Reports},
	shortjournal = {Public Health Rep},
	author = {Abouk, Rahi and Heydari, Babak},
	urldate = {2021-02-11},
	date = {2021-01-05},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, difference-in-differences, social distancing, stay-at-home},
}

@article{courtemanche_strong_2020,
	title = {Strong Social Distancing Measures In The United States Reduced The {COVID}-19 Growth Rate},
	volume = {39},
	issn = {0278-2715},
	url = {https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00608},
	doi = {10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00608},
	abstract = {State and local governments imposed social distancing measures in March and April 2020 to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus disease ({COVID}-19). These measures included bans on large social gatherings; school closures; closures of entertainment venues, gyms, bars, and restaurant dining areas; and shelter-in-place orders. We evaluated the impact of these measures on the growth rate of confirmed {COVID}-19 cases across {US} counties between March 1, 2020, and April 27, 2020. An event study design allowed each policy’s impact on {COVID}-19 case growth to evolve over time. Adoption of government-imposed social distancing measures reduced the daily growth rate of confirmed {COVID}-19 cases by 5.4 percentage points after one to five days, 6.8 percentage points after six to ten days, 8.2 percentage points after eleven to fifteen days, and 9.1 percentage points after sixteen to twenty days. Holding the amount of voluntary social distancing constant, these results imply that there would have been ten times greater spread of {COVID}-19 by April 27 without shelter-in-place orders (ten million cases) and more than thirty-five times greater spread without any of the four measures (thirty-five million cases). Our article illustrates the potential danger of exponential spread in the absence of interventions, providing information relevant to strategies for restarting economic activity.},
	pages = {1237--1246},
	number = {7},
	journaltitle = {Health Affairs},
	author = {Courtemanche, Charles and Garuccio, Joseph and Le, Anh and Pinkston, Joshua and Yelowitz, Aaron},
	urldate = {2021-02-11},
	date = {2020-05-14},
}

@article{sances_missing_2021,
	title = {Missing the Target? Using Surveys to Validate Social Media Ad Targeting},
	volume = {9},
	issn = {2049-8470, 2049-8489},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/missing-the-target-using-surveys-to-validate-social-media-ad-targeting/6D5793AD64168C6928F3B886F8A0C117},
	doi = {10.1017/psrm.2018.68},
	shorttitle = {Missing the Target?},
	abstract = {Facebook ads are increasingly used by political scientists as a method of survey recruitment. A key advantage is said to be the ability to recruit targeted audiences defined by demographics, political beliefs, location, and numerous other attributes. The same feature has been decried by non-researchers concerned about potential racial discrimination and foreign influence in elections. The extent to which these ads actually reach their targets, however, is unknown. Using a series of six surveys and 20 targeted ads, I show these ads regularly fail to reach their targets. The success rate ranges from 23 to 99 percent, and ads targeted toward groups defined by self-reported data and broader geographic locations are generally more successful.},
	pages = {215--222},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Political Science Research and Methods},
	author = {Sances, Michael W.},
	urldate = {2021-02-10},
	date = {2021-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Data collection, social media, survey methodology},
}

@article{sanchez-romero_indirect_2021,
	title = {An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with {COVID}-19: An application to the United States},
	volume = {16},
	issn = {1932-6203},
	url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0245845},
	doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0245845},
	shorttitle = {An indirect method to monitor the fraction of people ever infected with {COVID}-19},
	abstract = {The number of {COVID}-19 infections is key for accurately monitoring the pandemics. However, due to differential testing policies, asymptomatic individuals and limited large-scale testing availability, it is challenging to detect all cases. Seroprevalence studies aim to address this gap by retrospectively assessing the number of infections, but they can be expensive and time-intensive, limiting their use to specific population subgroups. In this paper, we propose a complementary approach that combines estimated (1) infection fatality rates ({IFR}) using a Bayesian melding {SEIR} model with (2) reported case-fatality rates ({CFR}) in order to indirectly estimate the fraction of people ever infected (from the total population) and detected (from the ever infected). We apply the technique to the U.S. due to their remarkable regional diversity and because they count with almost a quarter of all global confirmed cases and deaths. We obtain that the {IFR} varies from 1.25\% (0.39–2.16\%, 90\% {CI}) in Florida, the most aged population, to 0.69\% in Utah (0.21–1.30\%, 90\% {CI}), the youngest population. By September 8, 2020, we estimate that at least five states have already a fraction of people ever infected between 10\% and 20\% (New Jersey, New York, Massachussets, Connecticut, and District of Columbia). The state with the highest estimated fraction of people ever infected is New Jersey with 17.3\% (10.0, 55.8, 90\% {CI}). Moreover, our results indicate that with a probability of 90 percent the fraction of detected people among the ever infected since the beginning of the epidemic has been less than 50\% in 15 out of the 20 states analyzed in this paper. Our approach can be a valuable tool that complements seroprevalence studies and indicates how efficient have testing policies been since the beginning of the outbreak.},
	pages = {e0245845},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	shortjournal = {{PLOS} {ONE}},
	author = {Sánchez-Romero, Miguel and Lego, Vanessa di and Prskawetz, Alexia and Queiroz, Bernardo L.},
	urldate = {2021-02-10},
	date = {2021-01-28},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Age distribution, {COVID} 19, Medical risk factors, New York, Pandemics, Respiratory infections, Socioeconomic aspects of health, Virus testing},
}

@article{larremore_estimating_2020,
	title = {Estimating {SARS}-{CoV}-2 seroprevalence and epidemiological parameters with uncertainty from serological surveys},
	rights = {© 2020, Posted by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory. This pre-print is available under a Creative Commons License (Attribution-{NonCommercial}-{NoDerivs} 4.0 International), {CC} {BY}-{NC}-{ND} 4.0, as described at http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/},
	url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067066v2},
	doi = {10.1101/2020.04.15.20067066},
	abstract = {{\textless}p{\textgreater}Establishing how many people have already been infected by {SARS}-{CoV}-2 is an urgent priority for controlling the {COVID}-19 pandemic. Patchy virological testing has hampered interpretation of confirmed case counts, and unknown rates of asymptomatic and mild infections make it challenging to develop evidence-based public health policies. Serological tests that identify past infection can be used to estimate cumulative incidence, but the relative accuracy and robustness of various sampling strategies has been unclear. Here, we used a flexible framework that integrates uncertainty from test characteristics, sample size, and heterogeneity in seroprevalence across tested subpopulations to compare estimates from sampling schemes. Using the same framework and making the assumption that serological positivity indicates immune protection, we propagated these estimates and uncertainty through dynamical models to assess the uncertainty in the epidemiological parameters needed to evaluate public health interventions. We examined the relative accuracy of convenience samples versus structured surveys to estimate population seroprevalence and found that sampling schemes informed by demographics and contact networks outperform uniform sampling. The framework can be adapted to optimize the design of serological surveys given particular test characteristics and capacity, population demography, sampling strategy, and modeling approach, and can be tailored to support decision-making around introducing or removing interventions.{\textless}/p{\textgreater}},
	pages = {2020.04.15.20067066},
	journaltitle = {{medRxiv}},
	author = {Larremore, Daniel B. and Fosdick, Bailey K. and Bubar, Kate M. and Zhang, Sam and Kissler, Stephen M. and Metcalf, C. Jessica E. and Buckee, Caroline O. and Grad, Yonatan H.},
	urldate = {2021-01-29},
	date = {2020-06-22},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{brauner_inferring_2020,
	title = {Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against {COVID}-19},
	rights = {Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 ({CC} {BY}).. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/12/15/science.abd9338},
	doi = {10.1126/science.abd9338},
	abstract = {Governments are attempting to control the {COVID}-19 pandemic with nonpharmaceutical interventions ({NPIs}). However, the effectiveness of different {NPIs} at reducing transmission is poorly understood. We gathered chronological data on the implementation of {NPIs} for several European, and other, countries between January and the end of May 2020. We estimate the effectiveness of {NPIs}, ranging from limiting gathering sizes, business closures, and closure of educational institutions to stay-at-home orders. To do so, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model that links {NPI} implementation dates to national case and death counts and supported the results with extensive empirical validation. Closing all educational institutions, limiting gatherings to 10 people or less, and closing face-to-face businesses each reduced transmission considerably. The additional effect of stay-at-home orders was comparatively small.},
	journaltitle = {Science},
	author = {Brauner, Jan M. and Mindermann, Sören and Sharma, Mrinank and Johnston, David and Salvatier, John and Gavenčiak, Tomáš and Stephenson, Anna B. and Leech, Gavin and Altman, George and Mikulik, Vladimir and Norman, Alexander John and Monrad, Joshua Teperowski and Besiroglu, Tamay and Ge, Hong and Hartwick, Meghan A. and Teh, Yee Whye and Chindelevitch, Leonid and Gal, Yarin and Kulveit, Jan},
	urldate = {2021-01-29},
	date = {2020-12-15},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{haug_ranking_2020,
	title = {Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide {COVID}-19 government interventions},
	volume = {4},
	rights = {2020 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-020-01009-0},
	abstract = {Assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions ({NPIs}) to mitigate the spread of {SARS}-{CoV}-2 is critical to inform future preparedness response plans. Here we quantify the impact of 6,068 hierarchically coded {NPIs} implemented in 79 territories on the effective reproduction number, Rt, of {COVID}-19. We propose a modelling approach that combines four computational techniques merging statistical, inference and artificial intelligence tools. We validate our findings with two external datasets recording 42,151 additional {NPIs} from 226 countries. Our results indicate that a suitable combination of {NPIs} is necessary to curb the spread of the virus. Less disruptive and costly {NPIs} can be as effective as more intrusive, drastic, ones (for example, a national lockdown). Using country-specific ‘what-if’ scenarios, we assess how the effectiveness of {NPIs} depends on the local context such as timing of their adoption, opening the way for forecasting the effectiveness of future interventions.},
	pages = {1303--1312},
	number = {12},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	author = {Haug, Nils and Geyrhofer, Lukas and Londei, Alessandro and Dervic, Elma and Desvars-Larrive, Amélie and Loreto, Vittorio and Pinior, Beate and Thurner, Stefan and Klimek, Peter},
	urldate = {2021-01-29},
	date = {2020-12},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{tiokhin_competition_2021,
	title = {Competition for priority harms the reliability of science, but reforms can help},
	rights = {2021 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01040-1},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-020-01040-1},
	abstract = {Incentives for priority of discovery are hypothesized to harm scientific reliability. Here, we evaluate this hypothesis by developing an evolutionary agent-based model of a competitive scientific process. We find that rewarding priority of discovery causes populations to culturally evolve towards conducting research with smaller samples. This reduces research reliability and the information value of the average study. Increased start-up costs for setting up single studies and increased payoffs for secondary results (also known as scoop protection) attenuate the negative effects of competition. Furthermore, large rewards for negative results promote the evolution of smaller sample sizes. Our results confirm the logical coherence of scoop protection reforms at several journals. Our results also imply that reforms to increase scientific efficiency, such as rapid journal turnaround times, may produce collateral damage by incentivizing lower-quality research; in contrast, reforms that increase start-up costs, such as pre-registration and registered reports, may generate incentives for higher-quality research.},
	pages = {1--11},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	author = {Tiokhin, Leonid and Yan, Minhua and Morgan, Thomas J. H.},
	urldate = {2021-01-29},
	date = {2021-01-28},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{lenz_achieving_2017,
	title = {Achieving statistical significance with covariates and without transparency},
	author = {Lenz, Gabriel and Sahn, Alexander},
	date = {2017},
	keywords = {Causal Inference, methodology},
}

@article{lipset_corruption_2000,
	title = {Corruption, culture, and markets},
	volume = {112},
	pages = {112},
	journaltitle = {Culture matters: How values shape human progress},
	author = {Lipset, Seymour Martin and Lenz, Gabriel Salman},
	date = {2000},
	keywords = {corruption},
}

@article{bonaccorsi_economic_2020,
	title = {Economic and social consequences of human mobility restrictions under {COVID}-19},
	volume = {117},
	rights = {Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by {PNAS}.. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-{NonCommercial}-{NoDerivatives} License 4.0 ({CC} {BY}-{NC}-{ND}).},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {https://www.pnas.org/content/117/27/15530},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.2007658117},
	abstract = {In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 ({COVID}-19) pandemic, several national governments have applied lockdown restrictions to reduce the infection rate. Here we perform a massive analysis on near–real-time Italian mobility data provided by Facebook to investigate how lockdown strategies affect economic conditions of individuals and local governments. We model the change in mobility as an exogenous shock similar to a natural disaster. We identify two ways through which mobility restrictions affect Italian citizens. First, we find that the impact of lockdown is stronger in municipalities with higher fiscal capacity. Second, we find evidence of a segregation effect, since mobility contraction is stronger in municipalities in which inequality is higher and for those where individuals have lower income per capita. Our results highlight both the social costs of lockdown and a challenge of unprecedented intensity: On the one hand, the crisis is inducing a sharp reduction of fiscal revenues for both national and local governments; on the other hand, a significant fiscal effort is needed to sustain the most fragile individuals and to mitigate the increase in poverty and inequality induced by the lockdown.},
	pages = {15530--15535},
	number = {27},
	journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	shortjournal = {{PNAS}},
	author = {Bonaccorsi, Giovanni and Pierri, Francesco and Cinelli, Matteo and Flori, Andrea and Galeazzi, Alessandro and Porcelli, Francesco and Schmidt, Ana Lucia and Valensise, Carlo Michele and Scala, Antonio and Quattrociocchi, Walter and Pammolli, Fabio},
	urldate = {2020-11-11},
	date = {2020-07-07},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, economic segregation, human mobility, national lockdown},
}

@article{marsh_structural_2015,
	title = {The structural power of business: taking structure, agency and ideas seriously},
	volume = {17},
	issn = {1369-5258, 1469-3569},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/business-and-politics/article/structural-power-of-business-taking-structure-agency-and-ideas-seriously/7E0FAD7ED38BA51D810F6C0BBE1722AB},
	doi = {10.1515/bap-2015-0001},
	shorttitle = {The structural power of business},
	abstract = {The power of business is a very important issue for understanding the operation of democracy, but establishing the nature and extent of its power is not easy. We acknowledge that this is, in large part, an empirical problem and requires a more sophisticated conceptual framework to address it. Attempting to address this, the recent literature on the power of business has increasingly focused on the role of structure, agents and ideas. However, too little attention has been paid to how these concepts are defined and conceptualized. We argue that it is crucial to: specify the structures (economic/political/social) which we see as affecting the role of business; identify the agents, collective and individual, involved and how they interact; and specify which ideas are playing a role, at what level of generality and how these different ideas at different levels of generality interact. This article explores these issues through a critical consideration of the extant literature in order to provide a more developed framework for future empirical analysis.},
	pages = {577--601},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Business and Politics},
	author = {Marsh, David and Akram, Sadiya and Birkett, Holly},
	urldate = {2020-11-05},
	date = {2015-10},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {business, political connections, structural power},
}

@article{murphy_why_1993,
	title = {Why Is Rent-Seeking So Costly to Growth?},
	volume = {83},
	issn = {0002-8282},
	url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/2117699},
	pages = {409--414},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The American Economic Review},
	author = {Murphy, Kevin M. and Shleifer, Andrei and Vishny, Robert W.},
	urldate = {2020-11-05},
	date = {1993},
	keywords = {corruption, political connections},
}

@article{mcdiarmid_psychologists_2021,
	title = {Psychologists update their beliefs about effect sizes after replication studies},
	rights = {2021 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01220-7},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-021-01220-7},
	abstract = {Self-correction—a key feature distinguishing science from pseudoscience—requires that scientists update their beliefs in light of new evidence. However, people are often reluctant to change their beliefs. We examined belief updating in action by tracking research psychologists’ beliefs in psychological effects before and after the completion of four large-scale replication projects. We found that psychologists did update their beliefs; they updated as much as they predicted they would, but not as much as our Bayesian model suggests they should if they trust the results. We found no evidence that psychologists became more critical of replications when it would have preserved their pre-existing beliefs. We also found no evidence that personal investment or lack of expertise discouraged belief updating, but people higher on intellectual humility updated their beliefs slightly more. Overall, our results suggest that replication studies can contribute to self-correction within psychology, but psychologists may underweight their evidentiary value.},
	pages = {1--11},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {{McDiarmid}, Alex D. and Tullett, Alexa M. and Whitt, Cassie M. and Vazire, Simine and Smaldino, Paul E. and Stephens, Jeremy E.},
	urldate = {2021-11-25},
	date = {2021-11-22},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Human behaviour},
}

@article{gordon_can_2021,
	title = {Can scientists change their minds?},
	rights = {2021 Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01201-w},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-021-01201-w},
	abstract = {Scientific progress depends on researchers updating their beliefs when new evidence arises. {McDiarmid} and colleagues show that psychologists adjust their beliefs after seeing new results from a replication project. While updating is less than a Bayesian model would justify, it is not undermined by personal investment.},
	pages = {1--2},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Gordon, Michael and Pfeiffer, Thomas},
	urldate = {2021-11-25},
	date = {2021-11-22},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Human behaviour, Scientific community},
}

@article{grave_scientists_2021,
	title = {Scientists should be open about their mistakes},
	rights = {2021 Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01225-2},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-021-01225-2},
	abstract = {Discovering an error that leads to retraction is a harrowing experience, especially for early-career researchers. Joana Grave shares the story of the retraction of her first published paper and how community support helped her through this challenge.},
	pages = {1--1},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	author = {Grave, Joana},
	urldate = {2021-11-03},
	date = {2021-10-18},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Behavioral Sciences, Experimental Psychology, Life Sciences, Microeconomics, Neurosciences, Personality and Social Psychology, general},
}

@article{noauthor_description_2021,
	title = {Description, prediction, explanation},
	volume = {5},
	rights = {2021 Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {2397-3374},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-021-01230-5},
	doi = {10.1038/s41562-021-01230-5},
	abstract = {Description, prediction and explanation are all important in science. We welcome descriptive, predictive and explanatory studies, so long as the work is clear about its aims and uses appropriate methods to achieve its goals.},
	pages = {1261--1261},
	number = {10},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behaviour},
	shortjournal = {Nat Hum Behav},
	urldate = {2021-11-01},
	date = {2021-10},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Behavioral Sciences, Experimental Psychology, Life Sciences, Microeconomics, Neurosciences, Personality and Social Psychology, general},
}

@article{maxmen_has_2021,
	title = {Has {COVID} taught us anything about pandemic preparedness?},
	volume = {596},
	rights = {2021 Nature},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02217-y},
	doi = {10.1038/d41586-021-02217-y},
	abstract = {Researchers warn that plans to prevent the next global outbreak don’t consider the failures that have fuelled our current predicament.},
	pages = {332--335},
	number = {7872},
	journaltitle = {Nature},
	author = {Maxmen, Amy},
	urldate = {2021-08-25},
	date = {2021-08-13},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{liu_aerodynamic_2020,
	title = {Aerodynamic analysis of {SARS}-{CoV}-2 in two Wuhan hospitals},
	volume = {582},
	rights = {2020 The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited},
	issn = {1476-4687},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2271-3},
	doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2271-3},
	abstract = {The ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 ({COVID}-19) has spread rapidly on a global scale. Although it is clear that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ({SARS}-{CoV}-2) is transmitted through human respiratory droplets and direct contact, the potential for aerosol transmission is poorly understood1–3. Here we investigated the aerodynamic nature of {SARS}-{CoV}-2 by measuring viral {RNA} in aerosols in different areas of two Wuhan hospitals during the outbreak of {COVID}-19 in February and March 2020. The concentration of {SARS}-{CoV}-2 {RNA} in aerosols that was detected in isolation wards and ventilated patient rooms was very low, but it was higher in the toilet areas used by the patients. Levels of airborne {SARS}-{CoV}-2 {RNA} in the most public areas was undetectable, except in two areas that were prone to crowding; this increase was possibly due to individuals infected with {SARS}-{CoV}-2 in the crowd. We found that some medical staff areas initially had high concentrations of viral {RNA} with aerosol size distributions that showed peaks in the submicrometre and/or supermicrometre regions; however, these levels were reduced to undetectable levels after implementation of rigorous sanitization procedures. Although we have not established the infectivity of the virus detected in these hospital areas, we propose that {SARS}-{CoV}-2 may have the potential to be transmitted through aerosols. Our results indicate that room ventilation, open space, sanitization of protective apparel, and proper use and disinfection of toilet areas can effectively limit the concentration of {SARS}-{CoV}-2 {RNA} in aerosols. Future work should explore the infectivity of aerosolized virus.},
	pages = {557--560},
	number = {7813},
	journaltitle = {Nature},
	author = {Liu, Yuan and Ning, Zhi and Chen, Yu and Guo, Ming and Liu, Yingle and Gali, Nirmal Kumar and Sun, Li and Duan, Yusen and Cai, Jing and Westerdahl, Dane and Liu, Xinjin and Xu, Ke and Ho, Kin-fai and Kan, Haidong and Fu, Qingyan and Lan, Ke},
	urldate = {2021-08-23},
	date = {2020-06},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{le_chronic_2016,
	title = {Chronic stress in mice remodels lymph vasculature to promote tumour cell dissemination},
	volume = {7},
	rights = {2016 The Author(s)},
	issn = {2041-1723},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms10634},
	doi = {10.1038/ncomms10634},
	abstract = {Chronic stress induces signalling from the sympathetic nervous system ({SNS}) and drives cancer progression, although the pathways of tumour cell dissemination are unclear. Here we show that chronic stress restructures lymphatic networks within and around tumours to provide pathways for tumour cell escape. We show that {VEGFC} derived from tumour cells is required for stress to induce lymphatic remodelling and that this depends on {COX}2 inflammatory signalling from macrophages. Pharmacological inhibition of {SNS} signalling blocks the effect of chronic stress on lymphatic remodelling in vivo and reduces lymphatic metastasis in preclinical cancer models and in patients with breast cancer. These findings reveal unanticipated communication between stress-induced neural signalling and inflammation, which regulates tumour lymphatic architecture and lymphogenous tumour cell dissemination. These findings suggest that limiting the effects of {SNS} signalling to prevent tumour cell dissemination through lymphatic routes may provide a strategy to improve cancer outcomes.},
	pages = {10634},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Nature Communications},
	shortjournal = {Nat Commun},
	author = {Le, Caroline P. and Nowell, Cameron J. and Kim-Fuchs, Corina and Botteri, Edoardo and Hiller, Jonathan G. and Ismail, Hilmy and Pimentel, Matthew A. and Chai, Ming G. and Karnezis, Tara and Rotmensz, Nicole and Renne, Giuseppe and Gandini, Sara and Pouton, Colin W. and Ferrari, Davide and Möller, Andreas and Stacker, Steven A. and Sloan, Erica K.},
	urldate = {2021-06-30},
	date = {2016-03-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {beta regression},
}

@book{frye_property_2017,
	title = {Property rights and property wrongs: How power, institutions, and norms shape economic conflict in russia},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Frye, Timothy},
	date = {2017},
}

@article{bhandari_political_2020,
	title = {Political determinants of economic exchange: Evidence from a business experiment in senegal},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Bhandari, Abhit},
	date = {2020},
}

@article{canen_political_2020,
	title = {Political uncertainty, market structure and the forms of state capture},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3567523},
	journaltitle = {{SSRN}},
	author = {Canen, Nathan and Ch, Rafael and Wantchekon, Leonard},
	date = {2020},
}

@book{meng_constraining_2020,
	title = {Constraining dictatorship - From Personalized Rule to Institutionalized Regimes},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Meng, Anne},
	date = {2020},
}

@book{fairfield_private_2015,
	title = {Private wealth and public revenue in latin america: Business power and tax politics},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Fairfield, Tasha},
	date = {2015},
}

@article{blasius_power-law_2020,
	title = {Power-law distribution in the number of confirmed {COVID}-19 cases},
	number = {30},
	journaltitle = {Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science},
	author = {Blasius, Bernd},
	date = {2020},
}

@article{kubinec_ordered_2020,
	title = {Ordered beta regression: A parsimonious, well-fitting model for survey sliders and visual analog scales},
	journaltitle = {{SocArchiv}},
	author = {Kubinec, Robert},
	date = {2020},
}

@article{dryhurst_risk_2020,
	title = {Risk perceptions of {COVID}-19 around the world},
	pages = {1--13},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Risk Research},
	author = {Dryhurst, Sarah and Schneider, Claudia R and Kerr, John and Freeman, Alexandra {LJ} and Recchia, Gabriel and Van Der Bles, Anne Marthe and Spiegelhalter, David and van der Linden, Sander},
	date = {2020},
}

@article{brodeur_literature_2020,
	title = {A literature review of the economics of {COVID}-19},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3636640},
	journaltitle = {{IZA} Institute of Labor Economics Discussion Paper Series},
	author = {Brodeur, Abel and Gray, David and Islam, Anik and Bhuiyan, Suraiya Jabeen},
	date = {2020},
}

@article{abaluck_case_2020,
	title = {The case for universal cloth mask adoption and policies to increase supply of medical masks for health workers},
	journaltitle = {{SSRN}},
	author = {Abaluck, Jason and Chevalier, Judith A. and Christakis, Nicholas A. and Forman, Howard Paul and Kaplan, Edward H. and Ko, Albert and Vermund, Sten H.},
	date = {2020},
}

@software{gu_covid19-projectionscom_2020,
	title = {covid19-projections.com},
	url = {https://covid19-projections.com/about/#about-the-model},
	author = {Gu, Youyang},
	date = {2020},
}

@article{hammami_historical_2020,
	title = {The historical origins of networked capitalism in tunisia},
	journaltitle = {{PolNet} Conference 2020},
	author = {Hammami, Mohammed Dhia},
	date = {2020},
}

@book{slater_ordering_2012,
	title = {Ordering power: Contentious politics and authoritarian leviathans in southeast asia},
	publisher = {Camridge University Press},
	author = {Slater, Daniel},
	date = {2012},
}

@article{gao_mapping_2020,
	title = {Mapping county-level mobility pattern changes in the United States in response to {COVID}-19},
	volume = {12},
	pages = {16--26},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {{SIGSPATIAL} Special},
	author = {Gao, Song and Rao, Jinmeng and Kang, Yuhao and Kruse, Yunlei Liang {andJake}},
	date = {2020},
}

@article{dave_black_2020,
	title = {Black lives matter protests, social distancing, and {COVID}-19},
	journaltitle = {{NBER}},
	author = {Dave, Dhaval M. and Friedson, Andrew I. and Matsuzawa, Kyutaro and Sabia, Joseph J. and Safford, Samuel},
	date = {2020},
}

@article{hart_politicization_2020,
	title = {Politicization and polarization in {COVID}-19 news coverage},
	journaltitle = {Science Communication},
	author = {Hart, P. Sol and Chinn, Sedona and Soroka, Stuart},
	date = {2020},
}

@article{harper_ideological_2020,
	title = {Ideological responses to the breaking of {COVID}-19 social distancing recommendations},
	journaltitle = {Psyarchiv},
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	journaltitle = {Psychological Methods},
	author = {Smithson, Michael and Verkuilen, Jay},
	date = {2006},
}

@article{ferrari_beta_2004,
	title = {Beta regression for modelling rates and proportions},
	volume = {31},
	pages = {799--815},
	number = {7},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Applied Statistics},
	author = {Ferrari, Silvia and Cribari-Neto, Francisco},
	date = {2004},
}

@article{halberstam_homophily_2016,
	title = {Homophily, group size, and the diffusion of political information in social networks: Evidence from Twitter},
	pages = {73--88},
	number = {143},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Public Economics},
	author = {Halberstam, Yosh and Knight, Brian},
	date = {2016},
}

@article{momani_egypts_2018,
	title = {Egypt's {IMF} program: Assessing the political economy challenges},
	journaltitle = {Brookings Institution},
	author = {Momani, Bessma},
	date = {2018},
}

@article{bardhan_capture_2000,
	title = {Capture and governance at local and international levels},
	series = {2},
	pages = {135--139},
	number = {90},
	journaltitle = {American Economic Review},
	author = {Bardhan, Pranab and Mookherjee, Dilip},
	date = {2000},
}

@article{bates_organizing_2002,
	title = {Organizing violence},
	series = {5},
	pages = {599--628},
	number = {46},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Bates, Robert and Greif, Avner and Singh, Smita},
	date = {2002},
}

@article{greene_political_2010,
	title = {The political economy of authoritarian single-party dominance},
	series = {7},
	pages = {807--834},
	number = {43},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Greene, Kenneth F.},
	date = {2010},
}

@article{levitsky_beyond_nodate,
	title = {Beyond patronage: Violent struggle, ruling party cohesion, and authoritarian durability},
	series = {4},
	pages = {869--889},
	number = {10},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Levitsky, Steven R. and Way, Lucan A.},
}

@article{martinez-bravo_non-democratic_2017,
	title = {The non-democratic roots of elite capture: Evidence from soeharto mayors in indonesia},
	series = {6},
	pages = {1991--2010},
	number = {85},
	journaltitle = {Econometrica},
	author = {Martinez-Bravo, Monica and Mukherjee, Priya and Stegmann, Andreas},
	date = {2017},
}

@article{mattingly_elite_2016,
	title = {Elite capture: How decentralization and informal institutions weaken property rights in china},
	series = {3},
	pages = {383--412},
	number = {68},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Mattingly, Daniel C.},
	date = {2016},
}

@incollection{sfakianakis_sfak2004_2004,
	title = {sfak2004},
	pages = {77--100},
	booktitle = {Networks of privilege in the middle east: The politics of economic reform revisited},
	publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan},
	author = {Sfakianakis, John},
	date = {2004},
}

@inproceedings{stieglitz_political_2012,
	title = {Political communication and influence through Microblogging–An empirical analysis of sentiment in twitter messages and retweet behavior},
	booktitle = {2012 45th hawaii international conference on system sciences},
	author = {Stieglitz, Stefan and Dang-Xuan, Linh},
	date = {2012},
}

@inproceedings{metaxas_what_2015,
	title = {What do retweets indicate? Results from user survey and meta-review of research},
	booktitle = {Ninth international {AAAI} conference on web and social media},
	author = {Metaxas, Panagiotis and Mustafaraj, Eni and Wong, Kily and Zeng, Laura and O'Keefe, Megan and Finn, Samantha},
	date = {2015},
}

@article{reuter_elite_2019,
	title = {Elite defection under autocracy: Evidence from russia},
	series = {2},
	pages = {552--568},
	number = {113},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Reuter, Ora John and Szakonyi, David},
	date = {2019},
}

@article{booth_civil_1998,
	title = {Civil society, political capital, and democratization in Central America},
	volume = {60},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/production/action/cjoGetFulltext?fulltextid=6188708},
	pages = {780--800},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Politics},
	author = {Booth, John A and Richard, Patricia Bayer},
	date = {1998},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society},
}

@report{oliva_estimation_2000,
	title = {Estimation of trade protection in middle east and north african countries},
	url = {https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/30/Estimation-of-Trade-Protection-in-Middle-East-and-North-African-Countries-3464},
	institution = {International Monetary Fund},
	type = {{IMF} working paper},
	author = {Oliva, Maria-Angels},
	date = {2000},
}

@article{fish_islam_2002,
	title = {Islam and authoritarianism},
	volume = {55},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/25054208},
	pages = {pp. 4--37},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Fish, M. Steven},
	date = {2002-10},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLAD} 7090, Readings, Users},
}

@article{levitsky_rise_2002,
	title = {The rise of competitive authoritarianism},
	volume = {13},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2002.0026},
	doi = {10.1353/jod.2002.0026},
	pages = {51--65},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Democracy},
	author = {Levitsky, Steven and Way, Lucan},
	date = {2002},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@report{reinikka_survey_2003,
	title = {Survey techniques to measure and explain corruption},
	url = {http://www1.worldbank.org/publicsector/pe/PETS2.pdf},
	institution = {The World Bank},
	type = {Policy research working paper},
	author = {Reinikka, Ritva and Svensson, Jakob},
	date = {2003},
}

@report{acemoglu_institutions_2004,
	title = {Institutions as the fundamental cause of long-run growth},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w10481},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	type = {Working paper},
	author = {Acemoglu, Daron and Johnson, Simon and Robinson, James},
	date = {2004},
}

@report{almeida_theory_2005,
	title = {A theory of pyramidal ownership and family business groups},
	url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w11368},
	institution = {The National Bureau of Economic Research},
	type = {{NBER} working paper},
	author = {Almeida, Heitor and Wolfenzon, Daniel},
	date = {2005},
}

@article{benoit_electoral_2007,
	title = {Electoral laws as political consequences: Explaining the origins and change of electoral institutions},
	volume = {10},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.10.072805.101608},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev.polisci.10.072805.101608},
	pages = {363--390},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Benoit, Kenneth},
	date = {2007-06},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{gandhi_authoritarian_2007,
	title = {Authoritarian institutions and the survival of autocrats},
	volume = {40},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414007305817},
	doi = {10.1177/0010414007305817},
	pages = {1279--1301},
	number = {11},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Gandhi, Jennifer and Przeworski, Adam},
	date = {2007-09},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@report{piketty_evolution_2006,
	title = {The evolution of top incomes: A historical and international perspective},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w11955},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	type = {Working paper},
	author = {Piketty, Thomas and Saez, Emmanuel},
	date = {2006},
}

@article{kalyvas_ethnic_2007,
	title = {Ethnic cleavages and irregular war: Iraq and vietnam},
	volume = {35},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0032329207302403},
	doi = {10.1177/0032329207302403},
	pages = {183--223},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Politics \& Society},
	author = {Kalyvas, S. N. and Kocher, M. A.},
	date = {2007-06},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{kalyvas_how_2007,
	title = {How "Free" is free riding in civil wars? Violence, insurgency, and the collective action problem},
	volume = {59},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2007.0023},
	doi = {DOI: 10.1353/wp.2007.0023},
	pages = {pp. 177--216},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Kalyvas, Stathis N.},
	date = {2007},
	keywords = {Civil War, Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{kastellec_using_2007,
	title = {Using graphs instead of tables in political science},
	volume = {5},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1537592707072209},
	doi = {10.1017/S1537592707072209},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Kastellec, Jonathan P. and Leoni, Eduardo L.},
	date = {2007-12},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLAD} 7100, Readings, Users},
}

@report{poole_scaling_2008,
	title = {Scaling roll call votes with w-nominate in r},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract<sub>i</sub>d=1276082},
	institution = {Social Science Research Network},
	type = {Working paper},
	author = {Poole, Keith T. and Lewis, Jeffrey B. and Lo, James and Carroll, Royce},
	date = {2008-10-06},
}

@article{schmidt_discursive_2008,
	title = {Discursive institutionalism: The explanatory power of ideas and discourse},
	volume = {11},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.060606.135342},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.060606.135342},
	pages = {303--326},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Schmidt, Vivien A.},
	date = {2008-06},
	keywords = {Discursive Institutionalism, Historical Institutionalism, Institutions},
}

@article{franzese_jr_independence_2008,
	title = {Independence in comparative politics: Substance, theory, empirics, substance},
	volume = {41},
	pages = {742--780},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Franzese Jr, Robert J. and Hays, Jude C.},
	date = {2008},
}

@report{levitt_field_2008,
	title = {Field experiments in economics: The past, the present, and the future},
	url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w14356},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	type = {Working paper no. 14356},
	author = {Levitt, Steven D. and List, John A.},
	date = {2008},
}

@article{katz_cartel_2009,
	title = {The cartel party thesis: A restatement},
	volume = {7},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1537592709991782},
	doi = {10.1017/S1537592709991782},
	pages = {753},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Katz, Richard S. and Mair, Peter},
	date = {2009-12},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{gandhi_elections_2009,
	title = {Elections under authoritarianism},
	volume = {12},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.060106.095434},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.060106.095434},
	pages = {403--422},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Gandhi, Jennifer and Lust-Okar, Ellen},
	date = {2009-06},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{bunce_defeating_2010,
	title = {Defeating dictators: Electoral change and stability in competitive authoritarian regimes},
	volume = {62},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract<sub>S</sub>0043887109990207},
	pages = {43--86},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Bunce, Valerie J and Wolchik, Sharon L},
	date = {2010},
}

@article{ertman_great_2010,
	title = {The great reform act of 1832 and british democratization},
	volume = {43},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414010370434},
	doi = {10.1177/0010414010370434},
	pages = {1000--1022},
	number = {8},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Ertman, T.},
	date = {2010-06},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{grzymala-busse_best_2010,
	title = {The best laid plans: The impact of informal rules on formal institutions in transitional regimes},
	volume = {45},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12116-010-9071-y},
	doi = {10.1007/s12116-010-9071-y},
	pages = {311--333},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Studies in Comparative International Development},
	author = {Grzymala-Busse, Anna},
	date = {2010-09},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{reuter_economic_2010,
	title = {Economic performance and elite defection from hegemonic parties},
	pages = {83--110},
	number = {41},
	journaltitle = {British Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Reuter, Ora and Gandhi, Jennifer},
	date = {2010},
}

@article{beck_world-cultural_2011,
	title = {The world-cultural origins of revolutionary waves: Five centuries of european contention},
	volume = {35},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/01455532-2010-020},
	doi = {10.1215/01455532-2010-020},
	pages = {167--207},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Social Science History},
	author = {Beck, C. J.},
	date = {2011-05},
	keywords = {7090 research final paper, Democracy and Civil Society, Documents, My Box Files, Users},
}

@article{wibbels_politics_2010,
	title = {The politics of economic crisis in latin america},
	volume = {45},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12116-010-9072-x},
	doi = {10.1007/s12116-010-9072-x},
	pages = {383--409},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Studies in Comparative International Development},
	author = {Wibbels, Erik and Roberts, Kenneth},
	date = {2010-12},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{cameron_robust_2011,
	title = {Robust inference with multiway clustering},
	volume = {29},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/25800796},
	pages = {238--249},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Business \& Economic Statistics},
	author = {Cameron, A. Colin and Gehlbach, Jonah B. and Miller, Douglas L.},
	date = {2011},
}

@article{gerring_institutional_2011,
	title = {An institutional theory of direct and indirect rule},
	volume = {63},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0043887111000104},
	doi = {10.1017/S0043887111000104},
	pages = {377--433},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Gerring, John and Ziblatt, Daniel and Van Gorp, Johan and Ar??valo, Juli??n},
	date = {2011-07},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@incollection{geyer_introduction_2011,
	title = {Introduction to markov chain monte carlo},
	url = {http://www.mcmchandbook.net/HandbookChapter1.pdf},
	booktitle = {Handbook of markov chain monte carlo},
	publisher = {{CRC} Press},
	author = {Geyer, Charles J.},
	editor = {Brooks, Steve and Gelman, Andrew and Jones, Galin J. and Meng, Xiao-Li},
	date = {2011},
}

@article{dewan_political_2011,
	title = {Political economy models of elections},
	volume = {14},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.12.042507.094704},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev.polisci.12.042507.094704},
	pages = {311--330},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Dewan, Torun and Shepsle, Kenneth A.},
	date = {2011-06},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{schwedler_can_2011,
	title = {Can islamists become moderates? Rethinking the inclusion-moderation hypothesis},
	volume = {63},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0043887111000050},
	doi = {10.1017/S0043887111000050},
	pages = {347--376},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Schwedler, Jillian},
	date = {2011-04},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{baker_paradox_2012,
	title = {The paradox of islam's future.},
	volume = {127},
	issn = {00323195},
	url = {http://www.proxy.its.virginia.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=84570083&site=ehost-live},
	pages = {519 -- 566},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Political Science Quarterly (Academy of Political Science)},
	author = {Baker, Raymond W.},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Arab Political Ideology, {GLOBALIZATION}, {ISLAM}, {ISLAMIC} fundamentalism, Islamic Movements, {MUSLIMS}, Middle East, {RADICALISM}, {TERRORISM}},
}

@report{noauthor_egypt_2012,
	title = {Egypt: New constitution mixed on support of rights},
	url = {https://www.hrw.org/news/2012/11/30/egypt-new-constitution-mixed-support-rights},
	institution = {Human Rights Watch},
	date = {2012-11-30},
}

@report{aday_new_2012,
	title = {New media and conflict after the arab spring},
	url = {https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/150696/PW80.pdf},
	institution = {U. S. Institute of Peace},
	type = {Peaceworks},
	author = {Aday, Sean and Farrell, Henry and Lynch, Marc and Sides, John and Freelon, Deen},
	urldate = {2018-07-25},
	date = {2012},
}

@report{colombo_gcc_2012,
	title = {The {GCC} in the mediterranean in light of the arab uprisings},
	url = {https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/mediterranean-paper-series-december-2012.pdf},
	institution = {German Marshall Fund of the United States},
	type = {Mediterranean paper series 2012},
	author = {Colombo, Silvia and Coates-Ulrichsen, Kristian and Ghabra, Shafeeq and Hamid, Shadi and Ragab, Eman},
	date = {2012},
}

@report{iqbal_economic_2012,
	title = {The economic determinants of arab democratization},
	url = {http://www.mei.edu/content/economic-determinants-arab-democratization},
	institution = {Middle East Institute},
	type = {Paper},
	author = {Iqbal, Zubair},
	date = {2012-03-13},
}

@report{kirkpatrick_named_2012,
	title = {Named egypt's winner, islamist makes history},
	url = {http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/25/world/middleeast/mohamed-morsi-of-muslim-brotherhood-declared-as-egypts-president.html},
	institution = {New York Times},
	author = {Kirkpatrick, David},
	date = {2012-06-24},
}

@article{grzymala-busse_why_2012,
	title = {Why comparative politics should take religion (more) seriously},
	volume = {15},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-033110-130442},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-polisci-033110-130442},
	pages = {421--442},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Grzymala-Busse, Anna},
	date = {2012-06},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{levitsky_beyond_2012,
	title = {Beyond patronage: Violent struggle, ruling party cohesion, and authoritarian durability},
	volume = {10},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1537592712002861},
	doi = {10.1017/S1537592712002861},
	pages = {869--889},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Levitsky, Steven R. and Way, Lucan A.},
	date = {2012-12},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{miratrix_adjusting_2012,
	title = {Adjusting treatment effect estimats by post-stratification in randomzied experiments},
	volume = {75},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2012.01048.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1467-9868.2012.01048.x},
	pages = {369--396},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Series B: Statistical Methodology},
	author = {Miratrix, Luke W. and Sekhon, Jasjeet S. and Yu, Bin},
	date = {2012},
}

@article{shapiro_moral_2012,
	title = {Moral hazard, discipline, and the management of terrorist organizations},
	volume = {64},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0043887111000293},
	doi = {10.1017/S0043887111000293},
	pages = {39--78},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Shapiro, Jacob N. and Siegel, David A.},
	date = {2012-01},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{stekhoven_missforestnon-parametric_2012,
	title = {{MissForest}–non-parametric missing value imputation for mixed-type data},
	volume = {28},
	pages = {112--118},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Bioinformatics},
	author = {Stekhoven, Daniel J. and Bühlmann, Peter},
	date = {2012},
}

@report{noauthor_enterprise_2013,
	title = {Enterprise surveys: Tunisia 2013 implementation report},
	url = {http://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/catalog/2264},
	institution = {International Finance Corporation},
	date = {2013},
}

@report{noauthor_tunisia_2013,
	title = {Tunisia: Revise the draft constitution},
	url = {https://www.hrw.org/news/2013/05/13/tunisia-revise-draft-constitution},
	institution = {Human Rights Watch},
	date = {2013-05-13},
}

@article{wucherpfennig_ethnicity_2012,
	title = {Ethnicity, the state, and the duration of civil war},
	volume = {64},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S004388711100030X},
	doi = {10.1017/S004388711100030X},
	pages = {79--115},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Wucherpfennig, Julian and Metternich, Nils W. and Cederman, Lars-Erik and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede},
	date = {2012-01},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{bailer_explaining_2013,
	title = {Explaining the strength of civil society: Evidence from cross-sectional data},
	volume = {34},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0192512111419823},
	doi = {10.1177/0192512111419823},
	pages = {289--309},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {International Political Science Review},
	author = {Bailer, S. and Bodenstein, T. and Heinrich, V. F.},
	date = {2013-04},
	keywords = {7090 research final paper, Democracy and Civil Society, Documents, My Box Files, Users},
}

@article{brownlee_why_2013,
	title = {Why the modest harvest?},
	volume = {24},
	url = {http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journalₒf<sub>d</sub>emocracy/v024/24.4.brownlee.html},
	pages = {29--44},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Democracy},
	author = {Brownlee, Jason and Masoud, Tarek and Reynolds, Andrew},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Democratic Transitions},
}

@report{cunningham_will_2013,
	title = {Will algeria's army be the dark horse in the next election?},
	url = {https://www.pri.org/stories/2013-03-26/will-algerias-army-be-dark-horse-next-election},
	institution = {{PRI}},
	author = {Cunningham, Erin},
	date = {2013-03-26},
}

@unpublished{gelman_garden_2013,
	title = {The garden of forking paths: Why multiple comparisons can be a problem, even when there is no “Fishing Expedition" or “p-hacking" and the research hypothesis was posited ahead of time},
	url = {http://www.stat.columbia.edu/ gelman/research/unpublished/pₕacking.pdf},
	author = {Gelman, Andrew and Loken, Eric},
	date = {2013},
}

@article{konig_estimating_2013,
	title = {Estimating party positions across countries and Time—A dynamic latent variable model for manifesto data},
	volume = {21},
	pages = {468--491},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {König, Thomas and Marbach, Moritz and Osnabrügge, Moritz},
	date = {2013},
}

@article{karreth_catchall_2013,
	title = {Catchall or catch and release? The electoral consequences of social democratic parties march to the middle in western europe},
	volume = {46},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414012463885},
	doi = {10.1177/0010414012463885},
	pages = {791--822},
	number = {7},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Karreth, J. and Polk, J. T. and Allen, C. S.},
	date = {2013-06},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@report{kropko_measuring_2013,
	title = {Measuring the dynamics of political power: a time-series {IRT} model},
	institution = {Political Methodology Society},
	type = {Presentation},
	author = {Kropko, Jonathan},
	date = {2013},
}

@article{lewis_digital_2013,
	title = {Digital boundary definitions of united states congressional districts, 1789-2012},
	url = {http://cdmaps.polisci.ucla.edu/},
	author = {Lewis, Jeffrey B. and {DeVine}, Brandon and Pitcher, Lincoln and Martis, Kenneth C.},
	date = {2013},
}

@article{roberts_us_2013,
	title = {{US} in bind over egypt after supporting morsi but encouraging protesters},
	url = {https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/03/egypt-obama-us-mohamed-morsi-crisis},
	journaltitle = {The Guardian},
	author = {Roberts, Dan},
	date = {2013-07-03},
}

@report{noauthor_unfinished_2014,
	title = {The unfinished revolution: Bringing opportunity, good jobs and greater wealth to all tunisians},
	url = {http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/658461468312323813/pdf/861790DPR0P12800Box385314B00PUBLIC0.pdf},
	institution = {The World Bank},
	date = {2014-05-24},
}

@report{noauthor_constitution_2014,
	title = {Constitution of the tunisian republic},
	url = {http://www.jasmine-foundation.org/doc/unofficialₑnglishₜranslationₒfₜunisian<sub>c</sub>onstitution<sub>f</sub>inalₑd.pdf},
	institution = {Jasmine Foundation},
	type = {Translation},
	date = {2014},
}

@report{wolf_can_2014,
	title = {Can secular parties lead the new tunisia?},
	url = {https://carnegieendowment.org/2014/04/30/can-secular-parties-lead-new-tunisia-pub-55438},
	institution = {Carnegie Endowment for International Peace},
	author = {Wolf, Anne},
	date = {2014-04-30},
}

@report{morsy_military_2014,
	title = {The military crowds out civilian business in egypt},
	url = {http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/06/24/military-crowds-out-civilian-business-in-egypt-pub-55996},
	institution = {Carnegie Endowment for International Peace},
	author = {Morsy, Ahmed},
	date = {2014-06-24},
}

@article{cameron_practicioners_2015,
	title = {A practicioner's guide to cluster-robust inference},
	volume = {50},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.50.2.317},
	doi = {10.3368/jhr.50.2.317},
	pages = {317--372},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of Human Resources},
	author = {Cameron, A. Colin and Miller, Douglas L.},
	date = {2015},
}

@report{cherif_leadership_2015,
	title = {The leadership crisis of nidaa tounes},
	url = {http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/62216},
	institution = {Carnegie Endowment for International Peace},
	type = {Sada},
	author = {Cherif, Youssef},
	date = {2015-12-15},
}

@report{jackman_package_2015,
	title = {Package `pscl'},
	url = {https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/pscl/pscl.pdf},
	institution = {{CRAN}},
	type = {R software},
	author = {Jackman, Simon and Tahk, Alex and Zeileis, Achim and Maimone, Christina and Fearon, Jim},
	date = {2015-03-29},
}

@incollection{kucukelbir_automatic_2015,
	title = {Automatic variational inference in stan},
	url = {http://papers.nips.cc/paper/5758-automatic-variational-inference-in-stan.pdf},
	pages = {568--576},
	booktitle = {Advances in neural information processing systems 28},
	publisher = {Curran Associates, Inc.},
	author = {Kucukelbir, Alp and Ranganath, Rajesh and Gelman, Andrew and Blei, David},
	editor = {Cortes, C. and Lawrence, N. D. and Lee, D. D. and Sugiyama, M. and Garnett, R.},
	date = {2015},
}

@report{marks_tunisias_2015,
	title = {Tunisia's ennahda: Rethinking islamism in the context of {ISIS} and the egyptian coup},
	url = {https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Tunisia<sub>M</sub>arks-FINALE-5.pdf},
	institution = {The Brookings Institution},
	type = {Working paper},
	author = {Marks, Monica},
	date = {2015},
}

@report{honaker_amelia_2015,
	title = {Amelia {II}: A program for missing data},
	url = {http://cran.mtu.edu/web/packages/Amelia/vignettes/amelia.pdf},
	institution = {Harvard University},
	author = {Honaker, James and King, Gary and Blackwell, Matthew},
	date = {2015},
}

@report{messieh_who_2015,
	title = {Who is participating in egypt's parliamentary elections?},
	url = {http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/who-is-participating-in-egypt-s-parliamentary-elections},
	institution = {Atlantic Council},
	type = {{MENASource}},
	author = {Messieh, Nancy and Mohamed, Ali},
	date = {2015-02-20},
}

@report{strasser_tunisia_2015,
	title = {In tunisia, economic crisis threatens political progress},
	url = {https://www.usip.org/publications/2015/11/tunisia-economic-crisis-threatens-political-progress},
	institution = {U.S. Institute for Peace},
	type = {Analysis and commentary},
	author = {Strasser, Fred},
	date = {2015-11-12},
}

@report{wright_ranger_2015,
	title = {ranger: A fast implementation of random forests for high-dimensional data in C++ and R},
	url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/1508.04409},
	institution = {{arXiv}},
	author = {Wright, Marvin N. and Zeigler, Andreas},
	date = {2015-08-18},
}

@report{sirgany_24_2015,
	title = {The 24 year old party leader who seeks to rule egypt},
	url = {http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/the-24-year-old-party-leader-who-seeks-to-rule-egypt},
	institution = {Atlantic Council},
	type = {{MENASource}},
	author = {Sirgany, Sarah El},
	date = {2015-10-19},
}

@report{dennis_media_2016,
	title = {Media use in the middle east},
	url = {http://www.mideastmedia.org/},
	institution = {Northwestern University in Qatar},
	type = {Interactive report},
	author = {Dennis, Everette E. and Martin, Justin D. and Wood, Robb},
	date = {2016},
}

@report{dihstelhoff_carthage_2016,
	title = {The carthage agreement under scrutiny},
	url = {http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/66283},
	institution = {Carnegie Endowment for International Peace},
	type = {Sada},
	author = {Dihstelhoff, Julius and Sold, Katrin},
	date = {2016-11-29},
}

@article{gelman_bayesian_2016,
	title = {Bayesian statistics: What's it all about?},
	url = {http://andrewgelman.com/2016/12/13/bayesian-statistics-whats/},
	journaltitle = {Blog},
	author = {Gelman, Andrew},
	date = {2016-12-16},
}

@article{grewal_quiet_2016,
	title = {A quiet revolution: The tunisian military after ben ali},
	url = {http://carnegie-mec.org/2016/02/24/quiet-revolution-tunisian-military-after-ben-ali/iucy},
	journaltitle = {Carnegie Middle East Center},
	author = {Grewal, Sharan},
	date = {2016},
}

@article{albertus_unlikely_2016,
	title = {Unlikely democrats: Economic elite uncertainty under dictatorship and support for democratization},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12277},
	doi = {10.1111/ajps.12277},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Albertus, Michael and Gay, Victor},
	date = {2016},
}

@article{benoit-lavelle_tunisias_2016,
	title = {Tunisia's celebrated labor union is holding the country back},
	url = {http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/20/tunisias-celebrated-labor-union-is-holding-the-country-back/},
	journaltitle = {Foreign Policy},
	author = {Benoit-Lavelle, Mischa},
	date = {2016-07-20},
}

@report{linn_army_2016,
	title = {The army and its president},
	url = {http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/01/28/the-army-and-its-president-egypt-sisi/},
	institution = {Foreign Policy Magazine},
	type = {Democracy lab},
	author = {Linn, Emily Crane},
	date = {2016-01-28},
}

@report{malesky_chains_2016,
	title = {Chains of love? Global production, developing country firms and the diffusion of labor standards},
	url = {https://ncgg.princeton.edu/IPES/2016/papers/F1130<sub>r</sub>m1.pdf},
	institution = {Niehaus Center},
	type = {Working paper},
	author = {Malesky, Eddy and Mosley, Layna},
	date = {2016},
}

@report{macher_formal_2016,
	title = {Formal versus informal channels: How firm size affects corporate political activities},
	url = {http://cbpp.georgetown.edu/sites/cbpp.georgetown.edu/files/MMW-Formal%20Versus%20Informal%20Channels.pdf},
	type = {Working paper},
	author = {Macher, Jeffrey T. and Mayo, John W. and Weymouth, Stephen},
	date = {2016},
}

@report{adly_too_2017,
	title = {Too big to fail: Egypt's large enterprises after the 2011 uprising},
	url = {http://carnegie-mec.org/2017/03/02/too-big-to-fail-egypt-s-large-enterprises-after-2011-uprising-pub-68154},
	institution = {Carnegie Middle East Center},
	type = {Paper},
	author = {Adly, Amr},
	date = {2017-05-02},
}

@report{gabry_estimating_2017,
	title = {Estimating regularized linear models with rstanarm},
	url = {https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/rstanarm/vignettes/lm.html},
	institution = {{CRAN}},
	type = {Vignette},
	author = {Gabry, Jonah and Goodrich, Ben},
	date = {2017-04-29},
}

@article{gibbons_broken_2017,
	title = {Broken or fixed effects?},
	url = {http://www.jcsuarez.com/Files/Suarez<sub>S</sub>errato-BFE.pdf},
	author = {Gibbons, Charles E. and Serrato, Juan Carlos Suárez and Urbancic, Michael B.},
	date = {2017},
}

@article{benjamin_redefine_2017,
	title = {Redefine statistical significance},
	volume = {2},
	pages = {6--10},
	journaltitle = {Nature Human Behavior},
	author = {Benjamin, Daniel J. and Berger, James O. and Johannesson, Magnus and Nosek, Brian A. and Wagenmakers, E. J. and Berk, Richard and Bollen, Kenneth A. and Brembs, Bjorn and Brown, Lawrence and Camerer, Colin and Cesarini, David and Chambers, Christopher D. and Clyde, Merlise and Cook, Thomas D. and Boeck, Paul De and Dienes, Zoltan and Dreber, Anna and Easwaran, Kenny and Efferson, Charles and Fehr, Ernst and Fidler, Fiona and Field, Andy P. and Forster, Malcolm and George, Edward I. and Gonzalez, Richard and Goodman, Steven and Green, Edwin and Green, Donald P. and Greenwald, Anthony G. and Hadfield, Jarrod D. and Hedges, Larry V. and Held, Leonhard and Ho, Teck Hua and Hoijtink, Herbert and Hruschka, Daniel J. and Imai, Kosuke and Imbens, Guido and Ioannidis, John P. A. and Jeon, Minjeong and Jones, James Holland and Kirchler, Michael and Laibson, David and List, John and Little, Roderick and Lupia, Arthur and Machery, Edouard and Maxwell, Scott E. and {McCarthy}, Michael and Moore, Don A. and Morgan, Stephen L. and Munafó, Marcus and Nakagawa, Shinichi and Nyhan, Brendan and Parker, Timothy H. and Pericchi, Luis and Perugini, Marco and Rouder, Jeff and Rousseau, Judith and Savalei, Victoria and Schönbrodt, Felix D. and Sellke, Thomas and Sinclair, Betsy and Tingley, Dustin and Zandt, Trisha Van and Vazire, Simine and Watts, Duncan J. and Winship, Christopher and Wolpert, Robert L. and Xie, Yu and Young, Cristobal and Zinman, Jonathan and Johnson, Valen E.},
	date = {2017},
}

@report{carpenter_typical_2017,
	title = {Typical sets and the curse of dimensionality},
	url = {http://mc-stan.org/users/documentation/case-studies/curse-dims.html},
	institution = {Stan Development Team},
	type = {Case study},
	author = {Carpenter, Bob},
	date = {2017-04-11},
}

@article{carpenter_stan_2017,
	title = {Stan: A probabilistic programming language},
	volume = {76},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Statistical Software},
	author = {Carpenter, Bob and Gelman, Andrew and Hoffman, Matthew D. and Lee, Daniel and Goodrich, Ben and Betancourt, Michael and Brubaker, Marcus and Guo, Jiqiang and Li, Peter and Riddell, Allen},
	date = {2017},
}

@report{coppedge_v-dem_2017,
	title = {V-dem dataset v7},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract<sub>i</sub>d=2968289},
	institution = {Social Science Research Network},
	type = {Working paper},
	author = {Coppedge, Michael and Gerring, John and Lindberg, Staffan I. and Skaaning, Svend-Erik and Teorell, Jan and Altman, David and Bernhard, Michael and Fish, M. Steven and Glynn, Adam and Hicken, Allen and Knutsen, Carl Henrik and Krusell, Joshua and Mechkova, Anna Lührmann Kyle L. Marquardt Kelly M. {McMann} Valeriya and Olin, Moa and Paxton, Pamela and Pemstein, Daniel and Pernes, Josefine and Sanhueza, Constanza and Roemer, Johannes Von and Saxer, Laura and Seim, Brigitte and Saton, Jeffrey K. and Stepanova, Natalia and Wilson, Steven Lloyd},
	date = {2017-05-15},
}

@article{dejoui_imed_2017,
	title = {Imed trabeli comme tèmoin},
	url = {http://www.leconomistemaghrebin.com/2017/05/20/imed-trabelsi-systeme-de-corruption-na-change-temps-de-ben-ali-aujourdhui/},
	journaltitle = {L'Economiste Maghrébin},
	author = {Dejoui, Nadia},
	date = {2017-05-20},
}

@online{grolemund_r_2017,
	title = {R for data science},
	url = {http://r4ds.had.co.nz/},
	author = {Grolemund, Garrett and Wickham, Hadley},
	date = {2017},
}

@article{hertel-fernandez_american_2017,
	title = {American employers as political machines},
	volume = {79},
	pages = {105--117},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Politics},
	author = {Hertel-Fernandez, Alexander},
	date = {2017},
}

@unpublished{kim_firms_2017,
	title = {Firms' preferences over multidimensional trade policies: Global production chains, investment protection and dispute settlement mechanisms},
	url = {http://web.mit.edu/insong/www/pdf/conjoint.pdf},
	author = {Kim, Song and Milner, Helen V. and Bernauer, Thomas and Spilker, Gabriele and Osgood, Iain and Tingley, Dustin},
	date = {2017-06-08},
}

@report{malki_tunisias_2017,
	title = {Tunisia's partisan path to transitional justice},
	url = {http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/68206},
	institution = {Carnegie Endowment for International Peace},
	type = {Report},
	author = {Malki, Fatim-Zohra El},
	date = {2017-03-07},
}

@unpublished{imai_measuring_2017,
	title = {Measuring trade profiles with two billion observations of product trade},
	url = {https://imai.princeton.edu/research/files/BIGtrade.pdf},
	author = {Imai, Kosuke and Kim, In Song and Liao, Steven},
	date = {2017-02-12},
}

@thesis{prina_taking_2017,
	title = {Taking care of their own: The causes and consequences of soldiers in business},
	url = {https://drum.lib.umd.edu/handle/1903/19349},
	institution = {University of Maryland College Park},
	type = {phdthesis},
	author = {Prina, David},
	date = {2017},
}

@report{tang_random_2017,
	title = {Random forest missing data algorithms},
	url = {https://arxiv.org/pdf/1701.05305.pdf},
	institution = {Archiv},
	author = {Tang, Fei and Ishwaran, Hemant},
	date = {2017-01-23},
}

@online{youssef_supply_2017,
	title = {Supply ministry re-crafts subsidies cut law deals after angry protests},
	url = {https://dailynewsegypt.com/2017/03/08/617735/},
	author = {Youssef, Adham},
	date = {2017-03-08},
}

@article{arkhangelsky_role_2018,
	title = {The role of the propensity score in fixed effects models},
	url = {https://arxiv.org/pdf/1807.02099.pdf},
	journaltitle = {{ArXiv}},
	author = {Arkhangelsky, Dmitry and Imbens, Guido W.},
	date = {2018},
}

@report{kahn-lang_promise_2018,
	title = {The promise and pitfalls of differences-in-differences: Reflections on '16 and pregnant' and other applications},
	url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w24857.pdf},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	type = {{NBER} working paper series},
	author = {Kahn-Lang, Ariella and Lang, Kevin},
	date = {2018},
}

@report{kim_mapping_2017,
	title = {Mapping political communities: A statistical analysis of lobbying networks in legislative politics},
	url = {http://web.mit.edu/insong/www/pdf/network.pdf},
	type = {Working paper},
	author = {Kim, In Song and Kunisky, Dmitriy},
	date = {2017-07-13},
}

@article{kubinec_when_2018,
	title = {When groups fall apart: Measuring transnational polarization with twitter from the arab uprisings},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/wykmj},
	doi = {10.31235/osf.io/wykmj},
	journaltitle = {{SocArchiv}},
	author = {Kubinec, Robert and Owen, John},
	date = {2018-08-01},
}

@report{yerkes_tunisias_2017,
	title = {Tunisia's corruption contagion: A transition at risk},
	url = {http://carnegieendowment.org/2017/10/25/tunisia-s-corruption-contagion-transition-at-risk-pub-73522},
	institution = {Carnegie Endowment for International Peace},
	author = {Yerkes, Sarah and Muasher, Marwan},
	date = {2017-10-25},
}

@report{noauthor_enterprise_2018,
	title = {Enterprise surveys},
	url = {http://www.enterprisesurveys.org/data},
	institution = {World Bank},
	type = {Data},
	date = {2018},
}

@article{bhandari_political_2018,
	title = {Political determinants of economic exchange: Evidence from a business experiment in senegal},
	url = {https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ade668fb27e39802ce49e40/t/5b9c4de2758d46cdbe65fc37/1536970294174/Bhandari<sub>J</sub>MP.pdf},
	author = {Bhandari, Abhit},
	date = {2018-09-14},
}

@article{egami_identification_2018,
	title = {Identification of causal diffusion effects using stationary causal directed acyclic graphs},
	url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.07858},
	journaltitle = {Archiv},
	author = {Egami, Naoki},
	date = {2018},
}

@inproceedings{kubinec_idealstan_2018,
	title = {idealstan: An r package for ideal point modeling with stan},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1284361},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1284361},
	booktitle = {Proceedings of the 2018 stan conference},
	author = {Kubinec, Robert},
	date = {2018},
}

@report{siegel_tweeting_2018,
	title = {Tweeting beyond tahrir: Ideological diversity and political intolerance in egyptian twitter networks},
	url = {https://alexandra-siegel.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Egypt<sub>T</sub>olerance<sub>M</sub>arch2018.pdf},
	institution = {New York University},
	type = {Working paper},
	author = {Siegel, Alexandra A. and Tucker, Joshua A. and Nagler, Jonathan and Bonneau, Richard},
	date = {2018},
}

@article{yao_yes_2018,
	title = {Yes, but did it work?: Evaluating variational inference},
	url = {http://www.stat.columbia.edu/ gelman/research/published/Evaluating<sub>V</sub>ariational<sub>I</sub>nference.pdf},
	journaltitle = {Proceedings of the 35th International Conference on Machine Learning},
	author = {Yao, Yuling and Vehtari, Aki and Simpson, Daniel and Gelman, Andrew},
	date = {2018},
}

@article{hafer_deliberation_2006,
	title = {Deliberation and social polarization},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=887634},
	journaltitle = {{SSRN}},
	author = {Hafer, Catherine and Landa, Dimitri},
	date = {2006},
}

@article{lewis_gpuideal_2018,
	title = {gpuideal: Fast fully bayesian estimation of ideal points with massive data},
	url = {http://www.ctausanovitch.com/gpuideal.pdf},
	journaltitle = {Working Paper},
	author = {Lewis, Jeffrey B. and Tausanovitch, Chris},
	date = {2018},
}

@article{little_learning_2018,
	title = {Learning from biased research designs},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract<sub>i</sub>d=3236815},
	journaltitle = {Social Science Research Network ({SSRN})},
	author = {Little, Andrew T. and Pepinsky, Thomas B.},
	date = {2018-08-22},
}

@article{flake_measurement_2019,
	title = {Measurement schmeasurement: Questionable measurement practices and how to avoid them},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/hs7wm},
	doi = {10.31234/osf.io/hs7wm},
	journaltitle = {{PsyArXiv}},
	author = {Flake, Jessica and Fried, Eiko},
	date = {2019},
}

@article{sunstein_law_2002,
	title = {The law of group polarization},
	volume = {10},
	pages = {175--195},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of Political Philosophy},
	author = {Sunstein, Cass R.},
	date = {2002},
}

@article{dempsey_countdown_2013,
	title = {Countdown to a coup d'Etat in egypt?},
	journaltitle = {Carnegie Europe},
	author = {Dempsey, Judy},
	date = {2013},
}

@article{cherif_ennahda_2019,
	title = {Ennahda and morsi’s eulogy},
	journaltitle = {Carnegie Endowment for International Peace},
	author = {Cherif, Youssef},
	date = {2019},
}

@article{hinnebusch_sectarian_2016,
	title = {The sectarian revolution in the middle east},
	volume = {4},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Revolutions: Global Trends and Regional Issues},
	author = {Hinnebusch, Ray},
	date = {2016},
}

@book{worth_rage_2016,
	title = {A rage for order: The middle east in turmoil, from tahrir square to {ISIS}},
	publisher = {F},
	author = {Worth, Robert},
	date = {2016},
}

@article{mason_i_2014,
	title = {'I disrespectfully agree': The differential effects of partisan sorting on social and issue polarization},
	volume = {59},
	pages = {128--145},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Mason, Lilliana},
	date = {2014},
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@article{brooke_sectarianism_2017,
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}

@book{alesina_partisan_1995,
	title = {Partisan politics, divided government and the economy},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Alesina, Alberto and Rosenthal, Howard},
	date = {1995},
}

@book{albertus_authoritarianism_2018,
	title = {Authoritarianism and the elite origins of democracy},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Albertus, Michael and Menaldo, Victor},
	date = {2018},
}

@article{alptekin_military_2012,
	title = {Military expenditure and economic growth: A meta-analysis},
	pages = {636--650},
	journaltitle = {European Journal of Political Economy},
	author = {Alptekin, Aynur and Levine, Paul},
	date = {2012},
}

@article{almond_capitalism_1991,
	title = {Capitalism and democracy},
	volume = {24},
	pages = {467--474},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {{PS}: Political Science and Politics},
	author = {Almond, Gabriel A.},
	date = {1991},
}

@book{alexander_sources_2002,
	title = {The sources of democratic consolidation},
	publisher = {Cornell University Press},
	author = {Alexander, Gerard},
	date = {2002},
}

@book{adly_state_2013,
	title = {State reform and development in the middle east: Turkey and egypt in the post-liberalization era},
	publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan},
	author = {Adly, Amr},
	date = {2013},
}

@article{adaman_societal_2009,
	title = {Societal context of labor union strategy: The case of turkey},
	volume = {34},
	pages = {168--188},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Labor Studies Journal},
	author = {Adaman, Fikret and Bugra, Ayse and Insel, Ahmet},
	date = {2009},
}

@article{acemoglu_income_2008,
	title = {Income and democracy},
	volume = {98},
	pages = {808--842},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Economic Review},
	author = {Acemoğlu, Daron and Johnson, Simon and Robinson, James A. and Yared, Pierre},
	date = {2008},
}

@article{abbott_causes_1992,
	title = {From causes to events: Notes on narrative positivism},
	volume = {20},
	pages = {428--455},
	journaltitle = {Sociological Methods and Research},
	author = {Abbott, Andrew},
	date = {1992},
}

@article{abadie_semiparametric_2005,
	title = {Semiparametric difference-in-differences estimators},
	volume = {72},
	pages = {1--19},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Review of Economic Studies},
	author = {Abadie, Alberto},
	date = {2005},
}

@book{haber_politics_2003,
	title = {The politics of property rights: Political instability, credible commitments, and economic growth in mexico, 1876-1929},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Haber, Stephen and Razo, Armando and Maurer, Noel},
	date = {2003},
	keywords = {Mexico, Political Economy},
}

@article{acemoglu_power_2017,
	title = {The power of the street: Evidence from egypt's arab spring},
	volume = {31},
	pages = {1--42},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Review of Financial Studies},
	author = {Acemoğlu, Daron and Hassan, Tarek A. and Tahoun, Ahmed},
	date = {2017},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Egypt, Protests, Twitter},
}

@article{burkner_brms_2017,
	title = {brms: An R package for Bayesian multilevel models using Stan},
	volume = {80},
	doi = {10.18637/jss.v080.i01},
	pages = {1--28},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Statistical Software},
	author = {Bürkner, Paul-Christian},
	date = {2017},
}

@article{kubinec_replication_2020,
	title = {Replication data for: When groups fall apart: Identifying transnational polarization during the arab uprisings},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/Z6BCTJ},
	author = {Kubinec, Robert and Owen, John},
	date = {2020},
}

@article{kubinec_replication_2020-1,
	title = {Replication data for: When groups fall apart: Identifying transnational polarization during the arab uprisings},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.24433/CO.0409732.v1},
	author = {Kubinec, Robert and Owen, John},
	date = {2020},
}

@article{grossman_political_2020,
	title = {Political partisanship influences behavioral responses to governors recommendations for {COVID}-19 prevention in the United States},
	issn = {0027-8424},
	url = {https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/09/14/2007835117},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.2007835117},
	abstract = {We examine the role of partisanship in engagement in physical distancing following the outbreak of the novel coronavirus {COVID}-19 in the United States. We use data on daily mobility patterns for {US} counties along with information on county-level political preferences and the timing of state government leaders recommendations for individuals to stay at home. We find that state government leaders recommendations were more effective in reducing mobility in Democratic-leaning counties than in Republican-leaning counties. Among Democratic-leaning counties, recommendations from Republican leaders generated larger mobility reductions than recommendations from Democratic leaders. This study highlights the nuanced role of political partisanship in influencing how leaders {COVID}-19 prevention recommendations affect individuals voluntary decisions to engage in physical distancing.Voluntary physical distancing is essential for preventing the spread of {COVID}-19. We assessed the role of political partisanship in individuals compliance with physical distancing recommendations of political leaders using data on mobility from a sample of mobile phones in 3,100 counties in the United States during March 2020, county-level partisan preferences, information about the political affiliation of state governors, and the timing of their communications about {COVID}-19 prevention. Regression analyses examined how political preferences influenced the association between governors {COVID}-19 communications and residents mobility patterns. Governors recommendations for residents to stay at home preceded stay-at-home orders and led to a significant reduction in mobility that was comparable to the effect of the orders themselves. Effects were larger in Democratic- than in Republican-leaning counties, a pattern more pronounced under Republican governors. Democratic-leaning counties also responded more strongly to recommendations from Republican than from Democratic governors. Political partisanship influences citizens decisions to voluntarily engage in physical distancing in response to communications by their governor.All study data are included in the article and {SI} Appendix.},
	journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Grossman, Guy and Kim, Soojong and Rexer, Jonah M. and Thirumurthy, Harsha},
	date = {2020},
}

@article{yuan_bayesian_2009,
	title = {Bayesian mediation analysis.},
	volume = {14},
	issn = {1939-1463},
	doi = {10.1037/a0016972},
	abstract = {In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian mediation analysis, inference is straightforward and exact, which makes it appealing for studies with small samples. Third, the Bayesian approach is conceptually simpler for multilevel mediation analysis. Simulation studies and analysis of 2 data sets are used to illustrate the proposed methods. ({PsycINFO} Database Record (c) 2009 {APA}, all rights reserved).},
	pages = {301--322},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Psychological methods},
	author = {Yuan, Ying and {MacKinnon}, David P.},
	date = {2009-12},
	keywords = {Bayes Theorem, Confidence Intervals, Humans, Models, Psychological, Psychology, methods, statistics \& numerical data},
}

@unpublished{owen_springs_nodate,
	title = {Springs and their offsprings},
	author = {Owen, John M.},
}

@article{harsanyi_explanation_1960,
	title = {Explanation and comparative dynamics in social science},
	volume = {5},
	issn = {1099-1743},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/bs.3830050203},
	doi = {10.1002/bs.3830050203},
	pages = {136--145},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Behavioral Science},
	author = {Harsanyi, John C.},
	date = {1960},
	keywords = {Causal Methodology, Institutional Theory},
}

@book{kelejian_introduction_1974,
	title = {Introduction to econometrics: Principles and applications},
	publisher = {Harper \& Row {NY}},
	author = {Kelejian, Harry H and Oates, Wallace E},
	date = {1974},
}

@book{binder_islamic_1988,
	title = {Islamic liberalism: A critique of development ideologies},
	isbn = {0-226-05146-3},
	url = {http://www.amazon.com/Islamic-Liberalism-Critique-Development-Ideologies/dp/0226051463%3FSubscriptionId%3D0JYN1NVW651KCA56C102%26tag%3Dtechkie-20%26linkCode%3Dxm2%26camp%3D2025%26creative%3D165953%26creativeASIN%3D0226051463},
	publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
	author = {Binder, Leonard},
	date = {1988},
	keywords = {Arab Political Ideology},
}

@article{simon_behavioral_1955,
	title = {A behavioral model of rational choice},
	volume = {69},
	issn = {00335533},
	url = {http://www.proxy.its.virginia.edu/login?url=https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=bth&AN=7704421&site=ehost-live},
	pages = {99 -- 118},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	author = {Simon, Herbert A.},
	date = {1955},
	keywords = {{BUSINESS} enterprises, {DECISION} making, {ECONOMICS}, Game Theory and Formal Modeling, {ORGANISMS}, {RATIONAL} choice theory, {SOCIAL} choice},
}

@article{murthy_master_1981,
	title = {Master sampling frame and master sample for household sample surveys in developing countries},
	volume = {8},
	pages = {13--27},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Rural Demography},
	author = {Murthy, {MN}},
	date = {1981},
}

@article{putnam_diplomacy_1988,
	title = {Diplomacy and domestic politics: the logic of two-level games},
	volume = {42},
	issn = {1531-5088},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article<sub>S</sub>0020818300027697},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818300027697},
	pages = {427--460},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {International Organization},
	author = {Putnam, Robert D.},
	date = {1988-06},
	keywords = {Alliance Behavior, Int'l Env and Transitions, International Relations},
}

@article{olzak_analysis_1989,
	title = {Analysis of events in the study of collective action},
	volume = {15},
	issn = {03600572},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2083221},
	pages = {pp. 119--141},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Sociology},
	author = {Olzak, Susan},
	date = {1989},
	keywords = {Content Analysis, Revolutions, Social Movement Theory},
}

@book{kepel_revenge_1994,
	title = {Revenge of god: The resurgence of islam, christianity and judaism in the modern world},
	isbn = {0-271-01313-3},
	url = {http://www.amazon.com/Revenge-God-Resurgence-Christianity-Judaism/dp/0271013133%3FSubscriptionId%3D0JYN1NVW651KCA56C102%26tag%3Dtechkie-20%26linkCode%3Dxm2%26camp%3D2025%26creative%3D165953%26creativeASIN%3D0271013133},
	publisher = {Pennsylvania State Univ Pr (Trd)},
	author = {Kepel, Gilles},
	date = {1994},
	keywords = {Arab Political Ideology, Islamic Movements, Owen},
}

@report{noauthor_egypt_1995,
	title = {Egypt - human development report 1995},
	url = {http://www.arab-hdr.org/reports/nationalarab.aspx?cid=5},
	institution = {United Nations Development Programme},
	date = {1995},
}

@article{rasler_concessions_1996,
	title = {Concessions, repression, and political protest in the iranian revolution},
	volume = {61},
	issn = {00031224},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2096410},
	pages = {pp. 132--152},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Sociological Review},
	author = {Rasler, Karen},
	date = {1996},
	keywords = {Middle East, Revolutions, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{berman_civil_1997,
	title = {Civil society and the collapse of the Weimar Republic},
	volume = {49},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/production/action/cjoGetFulltext?fulltextid=7620756},
	pages = {401--429},
	journaltitle = {World politics},
	author = {Berman, Sheri},
	date = {1997},
}

@inproceedings{evans_predatory_1989,
	title = {Predatory, developmental, and other apparatuses: a comparative political economy perspective on the third world state},
	volume = {4},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF01115064},
	pages = {561--587},
	booktitle = {Sociological forum},
	author = {Evans, Peter B},
	date = {1989},
	keywords = {State Development},
}

@article{geddes_how_1990,
	title = {How the cases you choose affect the answers you get: Selection bias in comparative politics},
	volume = {2},
	url = {http://pan.oxfordjournals.org/content/2/1/131.short},
	pages = {131--150},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Political analysis},
	author = {Geddes, Barbara},
	date = {1990},
}

@article{denzau_shared_1994,
	title = {Shared mental models: Ideologies and institutions},
	volume = {47},
	issn = {1467-6435},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6435.1994.tb02246.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1467-6435.1994.tb02246.x},
	pages = {3--31},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Kyklos},
	author = {Denzau, Arthur T. and North, Douglass C.},
	date = {1994},
}

@article{carey_parchment_2000,
	title = {Parchment, equilibria, and institutions},
	volume = {33},
	url = {http://cps.sagepub.com/content/33/6-7/735.abstract},
	doi = {10.1177/001041400003300603},
	pages = {735--761},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Carey, John M.},
	date = {2000},
	keywords = {Institutional Theory},
}

@article{fukuyama_social_2001,
	title = {Social capital, civil society and development},
	volume = {22},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/713701144},
	pages = {7--20},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Third world quarterly},
	author = {Fukuyama, Francis},
	date = {2001},
}

@article{newton_trust_2001,
	title = {Trust, social capital, civil society, and democracy},
	volume = {22},
	url = {http://ips.sagepub.com/content/22/2/201.short},
	pages = {201--214},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {International Political Science Review},
	author = {Newton, Kenneth},
	date = {2001},
}

@article{edwards_civil_1998,
	title = {Civil society and social capital beyond Putnam},
	volume = {42},
	url = {http://abs.sagepub.com/content/42/1/124.short},
	pages = {124--139},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Behavioral Scientist},
	author = {Edwards, Bob and Foley, Michael W},
	date = {1998},
}

@article{layne_for_1999,
	title = {For the record},
	url = {http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&amp;db=a9h&amp;AN=2328980&amp;site=ehost-live},
	pages = {9},
	number = {57},
	journaltitle = {National Interest},
	author = {Layne, Christopher and Schwarz, Benjamin},
	date = {1999},
	keywords = {1998-1999, {ARMISTICES}, {KOSOVO} War, {NORTH} Atlantic Treaty Organization, Owen, {SERBIA}, {WAR}},
}

@article{chiozza_is_2002,
	title = {Is there a clash of civilizations? Evidence from patterns of international conflict involvement, 1946-97},
	volume = {39},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343302039006004},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343302039006004},
	pages = {711--734},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {{CHIOZZA}, G.},
	date = {2002-11},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLAD} 7090, Readings, Users},
}

@book{engerman_factor_2002,
	title = {Factor endowments, inequality, and paths of development among new world economics},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w9259},
	publisher = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Engerman, Stanley L and Sokoloff, Kenneth L},
	date = {2002},
	keywords = {Institutional Theory, State Capacity},
}

@article{glaeser_economic_2002,
	title = {An economic approach to social capital*},
	volume = {112},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-0297.00078/full},
	pages = {F437--F458},
	number = {483},
	journaltitle = {The Economic Journal},
	author = {Glaeser, Edward L and Laibson, David and Sacerdote, Bruce},
	date = {2002},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society},
}

@article{mercer_ngos_2002,
	title = {{NGOs}, civil society and democratization: a critical review of the literature},
	volume = {2},
	url = {http://pdj.sagepub.com/content/2/1/5.short},
	pages = {5--22},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Progress in development studies},
	author = {Mercer, Claire},
	date = {2002},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society},
}

@article{miguel_economic_2004,
	title = {Economic shocks and civil conflict: An instrumental variables approach},
	volume = {112},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/421174},
	doi = {10.1086/421174},
	pages = {725--753},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Political Economy},
	author = {Miguel, Edward and Satyanath, Shanker and Sergenti, Ernest},
	date = {2004-08},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLAD} 7090, Readings, Users},
}

@article{vanhanen_predicting_2002,
	title = {Predicting and explaining democratization in Eastern Europe},
	url = {http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&amp;lr=&amp;id=EEUzNW3NYowC&amp;oi=fnd&amp;pg=PA63&amp;dq=tatu+richard+democratization+europe&amp;ots=yq4wFjJ8Fj&amp;sig=atbK9H5ifKZWiAsDqr-IyuKadsk},
	pages = {63--96},
	journaltitle = {Democratization in Eastern Europe: domestic and international perspectives},
	author = {Vanhanen, Tatu and Kimber, Richard},
	date = {2002},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society, Democratic Transitions, Network Analysis},
}

@article{wejnert_integrating_2002,
	title = {{INTEGRATING} {MODELS} {OF} {DIFFUSION} {OF} {INNOVATIONS}: A Conceptual Framework.},
	volume = {28},
	issn = {03600572},
	url = {http://www.proxy.its.virginia.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=6969509&site=ehost-live},
	pages = {297 -- 326},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Sociology},
	author = {Wejnert, Barbara},
	date = {2002},
	keywords = {{DECISION} making, {DIFFUSION} of innovations, {INNOVATION} adoption, {SOCIAL} aspects, {SOCIAL} networks, {SOCIOLOGY}, Social Movement Theory, {TECHNOLOGICAL} innovations, adopters, adoption of innovations, decision making, diffusion models},
}

@article{dietz_struggle_2003,
	title = {The struggle to govern the commons},
	volume = {302},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/302/5652/1907.short},
	pages = {1907--1912},
	number = {5652},
	journaltitle = {science},
	author = {Dietz, Thomas and Ostrom, Elinor and Stern, Paul C},
	date = {2003},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society},
}

@article{gibler_measuring_2004,
	title = {Measuring alliances: The correlates of war formal interstate alliance dataset, 1816-2000},
	volume = {41},
	issn = {00223433},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/4149595},
	pages = {pp. 211--222},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Gibler, Douglas M. and Sarkees, Meredith Reid},
	date = {2004},
	keywords = {Alliance Behavior, International Relations},
}

@article{lizzeri_why_2004,
	title = {Why did the elites extend the suffrage? Democracy and the scope of government, with an application to Britain's “age of reform”},
	volume = {119},
	pages = {707--765},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	author = {Lizzeri, Alessandro and Persico, Nicola},
	date = {2004},
	keywords = {Inequality and Transitions, {PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@article{park_bayesian_2004,
	title = {Bayesian multilevel estimation with poststratification: State-level estimates from national polls},
	pages = {375--385},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Park, David K. and Gelman, Andrew and Bafumi, Joseph},
	date = {2004},
}

@article{coffey_measuring_2005,
	title = {Measuring gubernatorial ideology: A content analysis of state of the State speeches},
	volume = {5},
	url = {http://spa.sagepub.com/content/5/1/88.short},
	pages = {88--103},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {State Politics \& Policy Quarterly},
	author = {Coffey, Daniel},
	date = {2005},
	keywords = {Content Analysis, {PLAD} 7090},
}

@article{mueller_iraq_2005,
	title = {The iraq syndrome},
	volume = {84},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org.proxy.its.virginia.edu/stable/20031775},
	pages = {44--54},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {Foreign Affairs},
	author = {Mueller, John},
	date = {2005-12},
	keywords = {Owen},
}

@article{pehkonen_technical_2005,
	title = {Technical specifications of the values survey: Finland[2005]},
	url = {http://www.wvsevsdb.com/wvs/WVSTechnical.jsp},
	author = {Pehkonen, Juhani},
	date = {2005-12},
}

@article{andrews_dynamics_2006,
	title = {The dynamics of protest diffusion: Movement organizations, social networks, and news media in the 1960 sit-ins},
	volume = {71},
	url = {http://asr.sagepub.com/content/71/5/752.abstract},
	doi = {10.1177/000312240607100503},
	pages = {752--777},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {American Sociological Review},
	author = {Andrews, Kenneth T. and Biggs, Michael},
	date = {2006},
	keywords = {Nonviolent Social Movements, Revolutions, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{bunce_international_2006,
	title = {International diffusion and postcommunist electoral revolutions},
	volume = {39},
	issn = {0967-067X},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967067X06000249},
	doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2006.06.001},
	pages = {283 -- 304},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Communist and Post-Communist Studies},
	author = {Bunce, Valerie J. and Wolchik, Sharon L.},
	date = {2006},
	keywords = {Democracy promotion, Nonviolent Social Movements, Revolutions, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{powell_inefficient_2004,
	title = {The inefficient use of power: Costly conflict with complete information},
	volume = {null},
	issn = {1537-5943},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article<sub>S</sub>000305540400111X},
	doi = {10.1017/S000305540400111X},
	pages = {231--241},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Powell, Robert},
	date = {2004-05},
	keywords = {Game Theory and Formal Modeling},
}

@article{przeworski_institutions_2004,
	title = {Institutions matter?},
	volume = {39},
	issn = {1477-7053},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-7053.2004.00134.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1477-7053.2004.00134.x},
	pages = {527--540},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Government and Opposition},
	author = {Przeworski, Adam},
	date = {2004},
}

@article{weinstein_resources_2005,
	title = {Resources and the information problem in rebel recruitment},
	volume = {49},
	url = {http://jcr.sagepub.com/content/49/4/598.abstract},
	doi = {10.1177/0022002705277802},
	pages = {598--624},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Weinstein, Jeremy M.},
	date = {2005},
	keywords = {Civil War},
}

@article{mahoney_tale_2006,
	title = {A tale of two cultures: Contrasting quantitative and qualitative research},
	volume = {14},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpj017},
	doi = {10.1093/pan/mpj017},
	pages = {227--249},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Mahoney, James and Goertz, Gary},
	date = {2006-06},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLAD} 7090, Readings, Users},
}

@article{coulibaly_afrobarometer_2006,
	title = {Afrobarometer round 3 (2005-2006) technical information: Mali},
	url = {http://www.afrobarometer-online-analysis.com/aj/AJTechnicalAB.jsp},
	author = {Coulibaly, Massa},
	date = {2006},
}

@article{korpi_power_2006,
	title = {Power resources and employer-centered approaches in explanations of welfare states and varieties of capitalism: Protagonists, consenters, and antagonists},
	volume = {58},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/wp.2006.0026},
	doi = {10.1353/wp.2006.0026},
	pages = {167--206},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Korpi, Walter},
	date = {2006-01},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{robinson_economic_2006,
	title = {{ECONOMIC} {DEVELOPMENT} {AND} {DEMOCRACY}},
	volume = {9},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.9.092704.171256},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev.polisci.9.092704.171256},
	pages = {503--527},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Robinson, James A.},
	date = {2006-06},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@report{noauthor_ficha_2007,
	title = {Ficha technica latinobarometro},
	url = {http://www.latinobarometro.org/latContents.jsp},
	institution = {Corporacion Latinobarometro},
	date = {2007},
}

@article{beissinger_structure_2007,
	title = {Structure and example in modular political phenomena: The diffusion of Bulldozer/Rose/Orange/Tulip revolutions},
	volume = {null},
	issn = {1541-0986},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article<sub>S</sub>1537592707070776},
	doi = {10.1017/S1537592707070776},
	pages = {259--276},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Beissinger, Mark R.},
	date = {2007-06},
	keywords = {Nonviolent Social Movements, Revolutions, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{davenport_state_2007,
	title = {State repression and political order},
	volume = {10},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.10.101405.143216},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev.polisci.10.101405.143216},
	pages = {1--23},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Davenport, Christian},
	date = {2007-06},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{hyde_observer_2007,
	title = {The observer effect in international politics: Evidence from a natural experiment},
	volume = {60},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/wp.0.0001},
	doi = {10.1353/wp.0.0001},
	pages = {37--63},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Hyde, Susan D.},
	date = {2007-10},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLAD} 7090, Readings, Users},
}

@article{collier_beyond_2008,
	title = {Beyond greed and grievance: feasibility and civil war},
	volume = {61},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpn029},
	doi = {10.1093/oep/gpn029},
	pages = {1--27},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Oxford Economic Papers},
	author = {Collier, P. and Hoeffler, A. and Rohner, D.},
	date = {2008-03},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@book{heydemann_upgrading_2007,
	title = {Upgrading authoritarianism in the arab world},
	url = {http://www.brookings.edu/ /media/research/files/papers/2007/10/arabworld/10arabworld.pdf},
	author = {Heydemann, Steven},
	date = {2007-10},
}

@article{lake_escape_2007,
	title = {Escape from the state of nature: Authority and hierarchy in world politics},
	volume = {32},
	issn = {0162-2889},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/isec.2007.32.1.47},
	doi = {10.1162/isec.2007.32.1.47},
	pages = {47--79},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {International Security},
	author = {Lake, David A.},
	date = {2007-06},
	keywords = {Alliance Behavior, International Relations},
}

@book{smith_pact_2007,
	location = {New York},
	title = {A pact with the devil : Washington's bid for world supremacy and the betrayal of the American promise},
	isbn = {0-415-95245-X},
	url = {http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/ecip073/2006033031.html},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	author = {Smith, Tony},
	date = {2007},
	keywords = {2001-2009, 20th century, Democracy, Foreign relations, History, Imperialism, Intellectual life, Intellectuals, Liberalism, Owen, United States, United States Political activity},
}

@article{tessler_arab_2007,
	title = {Arab barometer: Public opinion survey conducted in algeria, morocco, jordan, lebanon, palestine, and yemen},
	url = {http://www.arabbarometer.org/},
	author = {Tessler, Mark and Jamal, Amaney and Bedaida, Abdallah and Abderebbi, Mhammed and Shikaki, Khalil and Braizat, Fares},
	date = {2007},
}

@article{tsai_solidary_2007,
	title = {Solidary groups, informal accountability, and local public goods provision in rural china},
	volume = {101},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1017.S0003055407070153},
	doi = {DOI: 10.1017.S0003055407070153},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Tsai, Lily L.},
	date = {2007},
	keywords = {7090 research final paper, Democracy and Civil Society, Documents, My Box Files, Users},
}

@article{gourevitch_role_2008,
	title = {The role of politics in economic development},
	volume = {11},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.053006.185507},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.053006.185507},
	pages = {137--159},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Gourevitch, Peter},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Institutional Theory, State Capacity},
}

@article{humphreys_who_2008,
	title = {Who fights? The determinants of participation in civil war},
	volume = {52},
	issn = {1540-5907},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00322.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00322.x},
	pages = {436--455},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Humphreys, Macartan and Weinstein, Jeremy M.},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Civil War},
}

@article{osman_technical_2008,
	title = {Technical specifications of the world values survey: Egypt [2008]},
	url = {http://www.wvsevsdb.com/wvs/WVSTechnical.jsp},
	author = {Osman, Magued},
	date = {2008-05},
}

@article{lopez-pintado_social_2008,
	title = {Social influence, binary decisions and collective dynamics},
	volume = {20},
	url = {http://rss.sagepub.com/content/20/4/399.abstract},
	doi = {10.1177/1043463108096787},
	pages = {399--443},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Rationality and Society},
	author = {López-Pintado, Dunia and Watts, Duncan J.},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Signaling Games, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{nannestad_what_2008,
	title = {What have we learned about generalized trust, if anything?},
	volume = {11},
	url = {http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.060606.135412},
	pages = {413--436},
	journaltitle = {Annual Revue of Political Science},
	author = {Nannestad, Peter},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society},
}

@article{salganik_leading_2008,
	title = {Leading the herd astray: An experimental study of self-fulfilling prophecies in an artificial cultural market},
	volume = {71},
	url = {http://spq.sagepub.com/content/71/4/338.abstract},
	doi = {10.1177/019027250807100404},
	pages = {338--355},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Social Psychology Quarterly},
	author = {Salganik, Matthew J. and Watts, Duncan J.},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Experiments, Experiments (Social Movements), Game Theory and Formal Modeling},
}

@book{noauthor_arab_2009,
	title = {Arab human development report: Human security},
	url = {http://www.arab-hdr.org/contents/index.aspx?rid=5},
	date = {2009},
}

@book{browers_political_2009,
	title = {Political ideology in the arab world: Accommodation and transformation (cambridge middle east studies)},
	isbn = {0-521-74934-4},
	url = {http://www.amazon.com/Political-Ideology-Arab-World-Transformation/dp/0521749344%3FSubscriptionId%3D0JYN1NVW651KCA56C102%26tag%3Dtechkie-20%26linkCode%3Dxm2%26camp%3D2025%26creative%3D165953%26creativeASIN%3D0521749344},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Browers, Michaelle L.},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {Arab Political Ideology, Owen},
}

@article{salem_arab_2009,
	title = {Arab reactions to iran's election: A view from beirut},
	url = {http://www.carnegie-mec.org/2009/06/30/arab-reactions-to-iran-s-election-view-from-beirut/b3rw},
	author = {Salem, Paul},
	date = {2009-06-30},
	keywords = {Arab Political Ideology, Iran's Influence, Owen},
}

@article{blattman_civil_2010,
	title = {Civil war},
	volume = {48},
	issn = {00220515},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/40651577},
	pages = {pp. 3--57},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Economic Literature},
	author = {Blattman, Christopher and Miguel, Edward},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {Civil War, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{blattman_violence_2009,
	title = {From violence to voting: War and political participation in uganda},
	volume = {103},
	issn = {1537-5943},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article<sub>S</sub>0003055409090212},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055409090212},
	pages = {231--247},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Blattman, Christopher},
	date = {2009-05},
	keywords = {Civil War, Democracy and Civil Society, Democratic Transitions},
}

@article{ziblatt_shaping_2009,
	title = {Shaping democratic practice and the causes of electoral fraud: The case of nineteenth-century germany},
	volume = {103},
	issn = {1537-5943},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article<sub>S</sub>0003055409090042},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055409090042},
	pages = {1--21},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Ziblatt, Daniel},
	date = {2009-02},
}

@article{blair_span_2010,
	title = {{\textless}span class="nocase"{\textgreater}list{\textless}/span{\textgreater}: Statistical methods for the item count technique and list experiment},
	url = {https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=list},
	author = {Blair, Graeme and Imai, Kosuke},
	date = {2010},
}

@article{cheibub_democracy_2010,
	title = {Democracy and dictatorship revisited},
	pages = {67--101},
	number = {143},
	journaltitle = {Public Choice},
	author = {Cheibub, Jose Antonio and Gandhi, Jennifer and Vreeland, James Raymond},
	date = {2010},
}

@book{levitsky_competitive_2010,
	title = {Competitive authoritarianism: hybrid regimes after the cold war},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Levitsky, Steven and Way, Lucan A},
	date = {2010},
}

@article{magaloni_political_2010,
	title = {Political order and one-party rule},
	volume = {13},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.031908.220529},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev.polisci.031908.220529},
	pages = {123--143},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Magaloni, Beatriz and Kricheli, Ruth},
	date = {2010-05},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{cox_speaking_2010,
	title = {Speaking stata: The statsby strategy},
	volume = {10},
	url = {http://ideas.repec.org/a/tsj/stataj/v10y2010i1p143-151.html},
	pages = {143--151},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Stata Journal},
	author = {Cox, Nicholas J},
	date = {2010},
}

@article{jamal_democratic_2010,
	title = {The democratic utility of trust: A cross-national analysis},
	volume = {72},
	issn = {1468-2508},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381609990466},
	doi = {10.1017/S0022381609990466},
	pages = {45--59},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of Politics},
	author = {Jamal, Amaney and Nooruddin, Irfan},
	date = {2010-01},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society},
}

@article{mcadam_ballots_2010,
	title = {Ballots and barricades: On the reciprocal relationship between elections and social movements},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {1541-0986},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article<sub>S</sub>1537592710001234},
	doi = {10.1017/S1537592710001234},
	pages = {529--542},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {{McAdam}, Doug and Tarrow, Sidney},
	date = {2010-06},
	keywords = {Nonviolent Social Movements, Revolutions, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{slater_informative_2010,
	title = {Informative regress: Critical antecedents in comparative politics},
	volume = {43},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414010361343},
	doi = {10.1177/0010414010361343},
	pages = {886--917},
	number = {7},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Slater, D. and Simmons, E.},
	date = {2010-06},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{noauthor_egypt_2011,
	title = {Egypt protests: Hillary clinton's statement in full},
	url = {http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8289419/Egypt-protests-Hillary-Clintons-statement-in-full.html},
	journaltitle = {The Telegraph},
	date = {2011-01},
	keywords = {Arab Spring},
}

@online{noauthor_timeline_2011,
	title = {Timeline: Egypt's revolution},
	url = {http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/01/201112515334871490.html},
	date = {2011-02-14},
}

@article{iek_why_2011,
	title = {Why fear the Arab revolutionary spirit?},
	url = {http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/feb/01/egypt-tunisia-revolt},
	journaltitle = {The Guardian},
	author = {?i?ek, Slavoj},
	date = {2011-02-01},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Owen},
}

@article{aljazeera_ex-judge_2011,
	title = {Ex-judge to head Egypt reform panel},
	url = {http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/02/201121563130198336.html},
	author = {{AlJazeera}},
	date = {2011-02-15},
	keywords = {Arab Political Ideology},
}

@article{caughey_elections_2011,
	title = {Elections and the regression discontinuity design: Lessons from close U.S. house races, 1942-2008},
	volume = {19},
	pages = {385--408},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Caughey, Devin and Sekhon, Jasjeet S.},
	date = {2011},
	keywords = {Regression Discontinuity},
}

@article{cederman_horizontal_2011,
	title = {Horizontal inequalities and ethnonationalist civil war: A global comparison},
	volume = {105},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0003055411000207},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055411000207},
	pages = {478--495},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Cederman, Lars Erik and Weidmann, {NIls} B. and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede},
	date = {2011-08},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{weyland_diffusion_2010,
	title = {The diffusion of regime contention in european democratization, 1830-1940},
	volume = {43},
	url = {http://cps.sagepub.com/content/43/8-9/1148.abstract},
	doi = {10.1177/0010414010370439},
	pages = {1148--1176},
	number = {8},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Weyland, Kurt},
	date = {2010},
}

@article{ellis_information_2011,
	title = {Information cascades and revolutionary regime transitions*},
	volume = {121},
	issn = {1468-0297},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02401.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02401.x},
	pages = {763--792},
	number = {553},
	journaltitle = {The Economic Journal},
	author = {Ellis, Christopher J. and Fender, John},
	date = {2011},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Inequality and Transitions, Signaling Games, Social Movement Theory},
}

@online{elshami_internal_2011,
	title = {Internal april 6 dynamics, egyptian politics, and outlooks for the future: An interview with ahmed maher},
	url = {http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/3429/internal-april-6-dynamics-egyptian-politics-and-ou},
	author = {Elshami, Nancy},
	date = {2011-12-07},
}

@article{faiola_egypts_2011,
	title = {Egypt's labor movement blooms in the arab spring},
	url = {http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/egypts-labor-movement-blooms-in-arab-spring/2011/09/25/gIQAj6AfwKₛtory.html},
	journaltitle = {The Washington Post},
	author = {Faiola, Anthony},
	date = {2011-09-25},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Egypt, Middle Esat},
}

@report{howard_opening_2011,
	title = {Opening closed regimes: what was the role of social media during the Arab Spring?},
	url = {http://ictlogy.net/bibliography/reports/projects.php?idp=2170},
	institution = {{PIPTI} / Project on Information Technology and Political Islam},
	author = {Howard, Philip N and Duffy, Aiden and Freelon, Deen and Hussain, Muzammil and Mari, Will and Mazaid, Marwa},
	date = {2011},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Democracy and Civil Society, Network Analysis},
}

@article{cohen_egypt_2011,
	title = {Egypt and libya: Capital takes flight},
	url = {http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/09/18/egypt-and-libya-capital-flight-up/},
	journaltitle = {Financial Times},
	author = {Cohen, Norma},
	date = {2011-09-18},
}

@article{elbaradei_elbaradei_2011,
	title = {{ElBaradei} on democracy's chances in egypt: 'we could experience an arab spring'},
	url = {http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/elbaradei-on-democracy-s-chances-in-egypt-we-could-experience-an-arab-spring-a-743825.html},
	journaltitle = {Der Spiegel},
	author = {{ElBaradei}, Mohamed},
	date = {2011-02-06},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Owen},
}

@article{hounshell_think_2011,
	title = {Think again: Egypt},
	url = {http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/14/thinkₐgainₑgypt},
	journaltitle = {Foreign Policy},
	author = {Hounshell, Blake},
	date = {2011-02-14},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Owen},
}

@article{lynch_after_2011,
	title = {After egypt: The limits and promise of online challenges to the authoritarian arab state},
	volume = {9},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1537592711000910},
	doi = {10.1017/S1537592711000910},
	pages = {301--310},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Lynch, Marc},
	date = {2011-06},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{martin_gonna_2011,
	title = {Gonna party like it's 1899: Party systems and the origins of varieties of coordination},
	volume = {63},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/production/action/cjoGetFulltext?fulltextid=7957291},
	pages = {78--114},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Martin, Cathie Jo and Swank, Duane},
	date = {2011},
}

@article{slackman_arab_2011,
	title = {Arab unrest propels iran as saudi influence declines},
	url = {http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/24/world/middleeast/24saudis.html},
	author = {Slackman, Michael},
	date = {2011-02-23},
	keywords = {Iran's Influence},
}

@article{jamal_arab_2011,
	title = {Arab barometer: Public opinion survey conducted in algeria, egypt, iraq, jordan, lebanon, palestine, saudi arabia, sudan, tunisia, and yemen},
	url = {http://www.arabbarometer.org/},
	author = {Jamal, Amaney and Tessler, Mark and Shikaki, Khalil and Almasri, Mohammad and Robbins, Michael and al-Jabi, Abdenasser and Jawad, Jamal Abdul and Dagher, Munqith and Habr, Rabih and Al-Sayed, El-Mogiera and Mizlini, Iman and al-Salahi, Fuad},
	date = {2011},
}

@article{kern_foreign_2011,
	title = {Foreign media and protest diffusion in authoritarian regimes: The case of the 1989 east german revolution},
	volume = {44},
	url = {http://cps.sagepub.com/content/44/9/1179.abstract},
	doi = {10.1177/0010414009357189},
	pages = {1179--1205},
	number = {9},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Kern, Holger Lutz},
	date = {2011},
	keywords = {Nonviolent Social Movements, Revolutions, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{nielsen_foreign_2011,
	title = {Foreign aid shocks as a cause of violent armed conflict},
	volume = {55},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00492.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00492.x},
	pages = {219--232},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Nielsen, Richard A. and Findley, Michael G. and Davis, Zachary S. and Candland, Tara and Nielson, Daniel L.},
	date = {2011-04},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLAD} 7090, Readings, Users},
}

@article{roy_this_2011,
	title = {This is not an Islamic revolution},
	url = {http://www.newstatesman.com/religion/2011/02/egypt-arab-tunisia-islamic},
	journaltitle = {The New Statesman},
	author = {Roy, Olivier},
	date = {2011-02-15},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Owen},
}

@article{shirky_political_2011,
	title = {The political power of social media},
	volume = {90},
	issn = {00157120},
	url = {http://www.proxy.its.virginia.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=mth&AN=56624549&site=ehost-live},
	pages = {28 -- 41},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Foreign Affairs},
	author = {Shirky, Clay},
	date = {2011},
}

@article{shorouk_transformation_2011,
	title = {The Transformation of Tarek al-Bishry from a Nasserist to a Political Islamist},
	url = {http://www.shorouknews.com/news/view.aspx?cdate=19112011&id=0d76985d-5034-4225-8730-5ab8bb085457},
	author = {{Shorouk}},
	date = {2011-11-19},
	keywords = {Arab Political Ideology},
}

@article{stack_egyptian_2011,
	title = {Egyptian military to review cases of jailed protesters},
	url = {http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/15/world/middleeast/15egypt.html?<sub>r</sub>=0},
	journaltitle = {New York Times},
	author = {Stack, Liam},
	date = {2011-04-14},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Democratic Transitions, Egypt, Middle East, Militaries},
}

@article{zakaria_egypts_2011,
	title = {Egypt's real parallel to iran's revolution},
	url = {http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/06/AR2011020603398.html},
	journaltitle = {Washington post (Washington, D.C. : 1974)},
	shortjournal = {Washington Post},
	author = {Zakaria, Fareed},
	date = {2011-02-07},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Owen},
}

@article{noauthor_crowds_2012,
	title = {Crowds in cairo praise morsi's army overhaul},
	url = {http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/08/201281215511142445.html},
	journaltitle = {Aljazeera},
	date = {2012-08-13},
	keywords = {Egypt, Militaries},
}

@book{boukadous_tunisian_2012,
	title = {Tunisian media: One year after the revolution},
	url = {http://cpj.org/blog/2012/01/tunisian-media-one-year-after-the-revolution.php},
	author = {Boukadous, Fahem},
	date = {2012-01-23},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Middle East, Tunisia},
}

@article{noauthor_ten_2012,
	title = {Ten Egyptian candidates barred from elections},
	url = {http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17717268},
	date = {2012-04-14},
	keywords = {Arab Political Ideology, Owen},
}

@article{noauthor_unfinished_2012,
	title = {Unfinished business},
	url = {http://www.economist.com/node/21546018},
	journaltitle = {The Economist},
	date = {2012-02},
}

@article{hussain_opening_2012,
	title = {Opening closed regimes: Civil society, information infrastructure, and political islam},
	url = {http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&amp;lr=&amp;id=7JHOFsLQyyIC&amp;oi=fnd&amp;pg=PA200&amp;dq=opening+closed+regimes+howard&amp;ots=VuUu68Muxr&amp;sig=r2sihsMnttnp0qm-nlZ4EJ2hNyk},
	pages = {200},
	journaltitle = {Digital media and political engagement worldwide: A comparative study},
	author = {Hussain, Muzammil M and Howard, Philip N},
	date = {2012},
}

@article{kassab_revolutionary_2012,
	title = {Revolutionary socialists: The brave kids of egypt},
	url = {http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/4235},
	journaltitle = {Al Akhbar English},
	author = {Kassab, Bisan},
	date = {2012-02-15},
	keywords = {Arab Political Ideology, Owen},
}

@article{krizhevsky_imagenet_2012,
	title = {{ImageNet} classification with deep convolutional neural networks},
	volume = {25},
	journaltitle = {Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems},
	author = {Krizhevsky, Alex and Sutskever, Ilya and Hinton, Geoffrey E},
	date = {2012},
}

@article{hariri_autocratic_2012,
	title = {The autocratic legacy of early statehood},
	volume = {106},
	issn = {1537-5943},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article<sub>S</sub>0003055412000238},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055412000238},
	pages = {471--494},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Hariri, Jacob Gerner},
	date = {2012-08},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Institutional Theory, State Capacity},
}

@article{justin_interview_2012,
	title = {An interview with ayman nour},
	url = {http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2012/5/24/ayman-nour-interview/?page=2#},
	author = {Justin, Eric T.},
	date = {2012-05-24},
	keywords = {Arab Political Ideology, Owen},
}

@article{kirkpatrick_egyptian_2012,
	title = {Egyptian is counting on worries of elites},
	url = {http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/28/world/middleeast/ahmed-shafik-counting-on-egyptian-elites-fears.html},
	journaltitle = {New York Times},
	author = {Kirkpatrick, David},
	date = {2012-05-27},
	keywords = {Egypt},
}

@article{layne_end_2012,
	title = {The end of pax americana: How western decline became inevitable},
	url = {http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/04/the-end-of-pax-americana-how-western-decline-became-inevitable/256388/},
	author = {Layne, Christopher},
	date = {2012-04},
	keywords = {Inequality and Transitions, Owen},
}

@article{liu_coalitions_2012,
	title = {Coalitions and language politics: Policy shifts in southeast asia},
	volume = {64},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S004388711200010X},
	doi = {10.1017/S004388711200010X},
	pages = {476--506},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Liu, Amy H. and Ricks, Jacob I.},
	date = {2012-07},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{mcdonald_electoral_2012,
	title = {Electoral majorities, political parties, and collective representation},
	volume = {45},
	url = {http://cps.sagepub.com/content/45/9/1104.short},
	pages = {1104--1131},
	number = {9},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {{McDonald}, Michael D and Budge, Ian and Best, Robin E},
	date = {2012},
}

@article{olsson-yaouzis_evolutionary_2012,
	title = {An evolutionary dynamic of revolutions},
	volume = {151},
	issn = {0048-5829},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11127-010-9755-x},
	doi = {10.1007/s11127-010-9755-x},
	pages = {497--515},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Public Choice},
	author = {Olsson-Yaouzis, Nicolas},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Evolution, Evolutionary game theory, Game Theory and Formal Modeling, Predicting Social Science, Public goods, Revolutions, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{patel_turning_2012,
	title = {Turning points and the cross-national diffusion of popular protest},
	url = {http://themonkeycage.org/2012/02/29/cross-national-diffusion-of-protest/},
	author = {Patel, David and Bunce, Valerie J},
	date = {2012-02-29},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Democracy and Civil Society, Democratic Transitions, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{marshall_egypts_2012,
	title = {Egypt's generals and transnational capital},
	volume = {42},
	url = {http://www.merip.org/mer/mer262/egypts-generals-transnational-capital},
	journaltitle = {Middle East Research and Information Project},
	author = {Marshall, Shana and Stacher, Joshua},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Egypt, Middle East, Military, Regime Type, Rentier States},
}

@article{morse_era_2012,
	title = {The Era of electoral authoritarianism},
	volume = {64},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/production/action/cjoGetFulltext?fulltextid=8464978},
	pages = {161--198},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Morse, Yonatan L},
	date = {2012},
}

@article{phillips_iraqs_2012,
	title = {Iraq's refusal to block iran's resupply of syrian regime reflects declining U.S. influence},
	url = {http://blog.heritage.org/2012/09/07/iraqs-refusal-to-block-irans-resupply-of-syrian-regime-reflects-declining-u-s-influence/},
	author = {Phillips, James},
	date = {2012-09-07},
	keywords = {Iran's Influence},
}

@article{rahimi_irans_2012,
	title = {Iran's declining influence in iraq},
	volume = {35},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2012.641917},
	doi = {10.1080/0163660X.2012.641917},
	pages = {25--40},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Washington Quarterly},
	author = {Rahimi, Babak},
	date = {2012-02},
	keywords = {Iran's Influence},
}

@article{stepan_tunisias_2012,
	title = {Tunisia's transition and the twin tolerations},
	volume = {23},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2012.0034},
	doi = {10.1353/jod.2012.0034},
	pages = {89--103},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Democracy},
	author = {Stepan, Alfred},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Democratic Transitions, Islamic Movements, Middle East},
}

@article{sukhtankar_sweetening_2012,
	title = {Sweetening the deal? Political connections and sugar mills in india},
	volume = {4},
	pages = {43--63},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Economic Journal: Applied Economics},
	author = {Sukhtankar, Sandip},
	date = {2012},
}

@article{wallace-wells_lonely_2012,
	title = {The lonely battle of wael ghonim},
	url = {http://nymag.com/news/features/wael-ghonim-2012-1/},
	journaltitle = {New York Magazine},
	author = {Wallace-Wells, Benjamin},
	date = {2012-01-22},
	keywords = {Arab Political Ideology, Owen},
}

@article{stern_amplifying_2012,
	title = {Amplifying silence: Uncertainty and control parables in contemporary china},
	volume = {45},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414011434295},
	doi = {10.1177/0010414011434295},
	pages = {1230--1254},
	number = {10},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Stern, R. E. and Hassid, J.},
	date = {2012-09},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{teti_eus_2012,
	title = {The {EU}'s first response to the οΏ½Arab {SpringοΏ}½: A critical discourse analysis of the partnership for democracy and shared prosperity},
	volume = {17},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13629395.2012.725297},
	pages = {266--284},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Mediterranean Politics},
	author = {Teti, Andrea},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Democracy and Civil Society, Middle East},
}

@article{thelen_varieties_2012,
	title = {Varieties of capitalism: Trajectories of liberalization and the new politics of social solidarity},
	volume = {15},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-070110-122959},
	doi = {10.1146/annurev-polisci-070110-122959},
	pages = {137--159},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Thelen, Kathleen},
	date = {2012-06},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{tufekci_social_2012,
	title = {Social media and the decision to participate in political protest: Observations from tahrir square},
	volume = {62},
	issn = {1460-2466},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1460-2466.2012.01629.x},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1460-2466.2012.01629.x},
	pages = {363--379},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Communication},
	author = {Tufekci, Zeynep and Wilson, Christopher},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Social Media Theory},
}

@article{woodberry_missionary_2012,
	title = {The missionary roots of liberal democracy},
	volume = {106},
	issn = {1537-5943},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article<sub>S</sub>0003055412000093},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055412000093},
	pages = {244--274},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Woodberry, Robert D.},
	date = {2012-05},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society, Democratic Transitions, Group Identity},
}

@report{noauthor_2012_2013,
	title = {2012 worker's protests in egypt},
	url = {http://ecesr.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Protest-Movement-20122.pdf},
	institution = {Egyptian Committee on Economic and Social Rights},
	date = {2013},
}

@report{noauthor_joint_2013,
	title = {Joint submission to the committee on economic, social and cultural rights},
	url = {http://ecesr.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Egypt<sub>C</sub>ESCR<sub>J</sub>oint<sub>r</sub>eport<sub>E</sub>nglish.pdf},
	institution = {Egyptian Center for Economic and Social Rights},
	date = {2013-11},
}

@report{acemoglu_chiefs_2013,
	title = {Chiefs: Elite control of civil society and economic development in sierra leone},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w18691},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	type = {Working paper},
	author = {Acemoglu, Daron and Reed, Tristan and Robinson, James A},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society},
}

@book{zein_receding_2012,
	title = {Receding hopes for press freedom in Tunisia},
	url = {https://cpj.org/blog/2012/09/receding-hopes-for-press-freedom-in-tunisia.php},
	author = {Zein, Dahlia El},
	date = {2012-09-25},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Middle East, Tunisia},
}

@article{abdelhafez_egypt_2013,
	title = {Egypt: Weathering the storm},
	url = {http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/governance-risk-compliance-consulting-services/resilience/publications/pdfs/issue3/egypt<sub>w</sub>eatheringₜheₛtorm.pdf},
	journaltitle = {Resilience},
	author = {Abdelhafez, Rehab},
	date = {2013},
}

@article{arriola_capital_2013,
	title = {Capital and opposition in africa: Coalition building in multiethnic societies},
	volume = {65},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0043887113000051},
	doi = {10.1017/S0043887113000051},
	pages = {233--272},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Arriola, Leonardo},
	date = {2013-04},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{brown_egypts_2013,
	title = {Egypt's failed transition},
	volume = {24},
	issn = {1086-3214},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2013.0064},
	doi = {10.1353/jod.2013.0064},
	pages = {45￢58},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Democracy},
	author = {Brown, Nathan J.},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Democratic Transitions, Middle East},
}

@article{cederman_elections_2013,
	title = {Elections and ethnic civil war},
	volume = {46},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414012453697},
	doi = {10.1177/0010414012453697},
	pages = {387--417},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Cederman, L.-E. and Gleditsch, K. S. and Hug, S.},
	date = {2013-02},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{edmond_information_2013,
	title = {Information manipulation, coordination, and regime change},
	volume = {80},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdt020},
	doi = {10.1093/restud/rdt020},
	pages = {1422--1458},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Review of Economic Studies},
	author = {Edmond, Chris},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{beissinger_semblance_2013,
	title = {The semblance of democratic revolution: Coalitions in ukraine's orange revolution},
	volume = {107},
	issn = {1537-5943},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article<sub>S</sub>0003055413000294},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055413000294},
	pages = {574--592},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Beissinger, Mark R.},
	date = {2013-08},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Nonviolent Social Movements, Revolutions},
}

@article{chenoweth_unpacking_2013,
	title = {Unpacking nonviolent campaigns: Introducing the {NAVCO} 2.0 dataset},
	volume = {50},
	url = {http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/50/3/415.abstract},
	doi = {10.1177/0022343312471551},
	pages = {415--423},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Peace Research},
	author = {Chenoweth, Erica and Lewis, Orion A},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{cole_rise_2013,
	title = {The rise of the sunnis and the decline of iran, iraq and hizbullah: The middle east in 2013},
	url = {http://www.juancole.com/2013/01/decline-hizbullah-middle.html},
	author = {Cole, Juan},
	date = {2013-01-01},
	keywords = {Iran's Influence},
}

@article{fukuyama_democracy_2013,
	title = {Democracy and the Quality of the State},
	volume = {24},
	issn = {1086-3214},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2013.0074},
	doi = {10.1353/jod.2013.0074},
	pages = {5￢16},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Democracy},
	author = {Fukuyama, Francis},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, State Capacity},
}

@article{gleditsch_expanded_2013,
	title = {Expanded trade and {GDP} data},
	url = {http://privatewww.essex.ac.uk/ ksg/exptradegdp.html},
	author = {Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede},
	date = {2013},
}

@article{halime_egypts_2013,
	title = {Egypt's big businesses feel neglected amid turmoil},
	url = {http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/world/middleeast/egypts-big-businesses-feel-neglected-amid-turmoil.html?<sub>r</sub>=0},
	journaltitle = {The New York Times},
	author = {Halime, Farah},
	date = {2013-01-30},
	keywords = {Egypt},
}

@article{karaman_different_2013,
	title = {Different paths to the modern state in europe: The interaction between warfare, economic structure, and political regime},
	volume = {107},
	issn = {1537-5943},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article<sub>S</sub>0003055413000312},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055413000312},
	pages = {603--626},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Karaman, K. Kivanç and Pamuk, Şevket},
	date = {2013-08},
	keywords = {Institutional Theory, State Capacity},
}

@online{khalaf_morsi_2013,
	title = {Morsi adviser blames {IMF} for delaying egypt \$4.8b loan agreement},
	url = {https://www.ft.com/content/f2376bea-d0fc-11e2-a3ea-00144feab7de},
	author = {Khalaf, Roula},
	date = {2013-06-09},
}

@article{gingerich_yesterdays_2013,
	title = {Yesterday's heroes, today's villains: Ideology, corruption, and democratic performance},
	pages = {0951629813495120},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Theoretical Politics},
	author = {Gingerich, Daniel W},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {{CPE}, Democratic Transitions, Elections, {PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@online{hearst_why_2013,
	title = {Why saudi arabia is taking a risk by backing the egyptian coup},
	url = {https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/aug/20/saudi-arabia-coup-egypt},
	author = {Hearst, David},
	date = {2013-08-20},
}

@article{heydemann_syria_2013,
	title = {Syria and the future of authoritarianism},
	volume = {24},
	issn = {1086-3214},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2013.0067},
	doi = {10.1353/jod.2013.0067},
	pages = {59￢73},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Democracy},
	author = {Heydemann, Steven},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Civil War, Democratic Transitions, Middle East},
}

@article{kandil_end_2013,
	title = {The end of islamism?},
	url = {http://www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2013/07/04/hazem-kandil/the-end-of-islamism/},
	author = {Kandil, Hazem},
	date = {2013-07},
	keywords = {Middle East, Owen},
}

@article{mccauley_economic_2013,
	title = {Economic development strategies and communal violence in africa: The cases of cote d Ivoire and ghana},
	volume = {46},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414012453034},
	doi = {10.1177/0010414012453034},
	pages = {182--211},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {{McCauley}, J. F.},
	date = {2013-01},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{morgan_path_2013,
	title = {Path shifting of the welfare state: Electoral competition and the expansion of work-family policies in western europe},
	volume = {65},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0043887112000251},
	doi = {10.1017/S0043887112000251},
	pages = {73--115},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Morgan, Kimberly J.},
	date = {2013-01},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{muchnik_social_2013,
	title = {Social influence bias: A randomized experiment},
	volume = {341},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/341/6146/647.abstract},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1240466},
	pages = {647--651},
	number = {6146},
	journaltitle = {Science},
	author = {Muchnik, Lev and Aral, Sinan and Taylor, Sean J.},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Experiments (Social Movements), Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{kinne_network_2013,
	title = {Network dynamics and the evolution of international cooperation},
	volume = {107},
	issn = {1537-5943},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article<sub>S</sub>0003055413000440},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055413000440},
	pages = {766--785},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Kinne, Brandon J},
	date = {2013-11},
	keywords = {Alliance Behavior, International Relations, Network Analysis},
}

@online{kirkpatrick_army_2013,
	title = {Army ousts egypt's president; morsi is taken into military custody},
	url = {http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/04/world/middleeast/egypt.html},
	author = {Kirkpatrick, David},
	date = {2013-07-03},
}

@article{koter_king_2013,
	title = {King makers: Local leaders and ethnic politics in africa},
	volume = {65},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S004388711300004X},
	doi = {10.1017/S004388711300004X},
	pages = {187--232},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Koter, Dominika},
	date = {2013-04},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{lieberman_ethnicitypolicy_2013,
	title = {The Ethnicity–Policy preference link in sub-saharan africa},
	volume = {46},
	url = {http://cps.sagepub.com/content/46/5/574.short},
	pages = {574--602},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Lieberman, Evan S and {McClendon}, Gwyneth H},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@article{mcgann_calculus_2013,
	title = {The calculus of consensus democracy: Rethinking patterns of democracy without veto players},
	volume = {46},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0010414012463883},
	doi = {10.1177/0010414012463883},
	pages = {823--850},
	number = {7},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {{McGann}, A. J. and Latner, M.},
	date = {2013-06},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{parkinson_organizing_2013,
	title = {Organizing rebellion: Rethinking high-risk mobilization and social networks in war},
	volume = {107},
	issn = {1537-5943},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article<sub>S</sub>0003055413000208},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055413000208},
	pages = {418--432},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Parkinson, Sarah Elizabeth},
	date = {2013-08},
	keywords = {Civil War, Middle East, Social Movement Theory},
}

@unpublished{patel_roundabouts_2013,
	title = {Roundabouts and revolutions: Public squares, coordination, and the diffusion of the arab uprisings},
	url = {http://aalims.org/uploads/Patel.pdf},
	author = {Patel, David S.},
	date = {2013-01-30},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{siegel_social_2013,
	title = {Social networks and the mass media},
	volume = {107},
	issn = {1537-5943},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article<sub>S</sub>0003055413000452},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055413000452},
	pages = {786--805},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Siegel, David A.},
	date = {2013-11},
	keywords = {Content Analysis, Social Media Theory, Social Movement Theory},
}

@report{voytek_are_2013,
	title = {Are there really as many neurons in the human brain as stars in the milky way?},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/scitable/blog/brain-metrics/areₜhere<sub>r</sub>eallyₐsₘany},
	institution = {Nature},
	type = {Blog},
	author = {Voytek, Bradley},
	date = {2013-05-20},
}

@article{norris_assessing_2013,
	title = {Assessing the quality of elections},
	volume = {24},
	issn = {1086-3214},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2013.0063},
	doi = {10.1353/jod.2013.0063},
	pages = {124￢135},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Democracy},
	author = {Norris, Pippa and Frank, Richard W. and Coma, Ferran Martinez i},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Elections},
}

@article{press_chokri_2013,
	title = {Chokri belaid, 1964-2013: Fierce opponent of tunisia's islamists},
	url = {http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/64204/World/Region/Chokri-Belaid,–Fierce-opponent-of-Tunisias-Islami.aspx},
	journaltitle = {Ahram Online},
	author = {Press, Agency France},
	date = {2013-02-06},
	keywords = {Arab Political Ideology, Owen},
}

@article{reeskens_nationalism_2013,
	title = {Nationalism and the cohesive society a multilevel analysis of the interplay among diversity, national identity, and social capital across 27 european societies},
	volume = {46},
	url = {http://cps.sagepub.com/content/46/2/153.short},
	pages = {153--181},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Reeskens, Tim and Wright, Matthew},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society, {PLCP} 7000},
}

@article{sambanis_social_2013,
	title = {Social identification and ethnic conflict},
	volume = {107},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/repo<sub>A</sub>895v1Rl},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Sambanis, Nicholas and Shayo, Moses},
	date = {2013},
}

@report{satyanath_bowling_2013,
	title = {Bowling for fascism: Social capital and the rise of the Nazi Party in Weimar Germany, 1919-33},
	url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w19201},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Satyanath, Shanker and Voigtländer, Nico and Voth, Hans-Joachim},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society},
}

@book{noauthor_codebook_2014,
	title = {Codebook: Arab democracy barometer wave {II}: 2010-2011},
	url = {http://www.arabbarometer.org/content/arab-barometer-ii},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Middle East},
}

@article{noauthor_egypt_2014,
	title = {Egypt: Abdul fattah al-Sisi profile},
	url = {http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-19256730},
	journaltitle = {{BBC} News},
	date = {2014-05-16},
	keywords = {Egypt, Militaries},
}

@article{noauthor_tunisians_2014,
	title = {Tunisians hold credible, democratic election, lack of youth participation cause for concern as country moves forward},
	url = {http://www.iri.org/resource/tunisians-hold-credible-democratic-election-lack-youth-participation-cause-concern-countr-0},
	date = {2014-12},
	keywords = {Elections, Tunisia},
}

@article{azimi_egyptian_2014,
	title = {The egyptian army's unlikely allies},
	url = {http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-egyptian-armys-unlikely-allies},
	author = {Azimi, Negar},
	date = {2014-01},
}

@article{chandler_nonnaivete_2014,
	title = {Nonnaivete among amazon mechanical turk workers: Consequences and solutions for behavioral researchers},
	volume = {46},
	pages = {112--130},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Behavior Research Methods},
	author = {Chandler, Jesse and Mueller, Pam and Paolacci, Gabriele},
	date = {2014},
}

@article{goldberg_arab_2014,
	title = {Arab transitions and the old elite},
	url = {https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/12/09/arab-transitions-and-the-old-elite/},
	author = {Goldberg, Ellis},
	date = {2014-12},
}

@article{wolfsfeld_social_2013,
	title = {Social media and the arab spring: Politics comes first},
	volume = {18},
	url = {http://hij.sagepub.com/content/18/2/115.abstract},
	doi = {10.1177/1940161212471716},
	pages = {115--137},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The International Journal of Press/Politics},
	author = {Wolfsfeld, Gadi and Segev, Elad and Sheafer, Tamir},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Democratic Transitions, Middle East, Social Media Theory},
}

@article{noauthor_coalitions_2013,
	title = {Coalitions not conflicts: Ethnicity, political institutions, and expenditure in africa},
	volume = {45},
	url = {http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/cuny/cp/2013/00000045/00000003/art00003},
	doi = {doi:10.5129/001041512X13815255434852},
	pages = {273--290},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Politics},
	date = {2013-04-01},
}

@article{horowitz_ethnic_2014,
	title = {Ethnic power sharing: Three big problems},
	volume = {25},
	issn = {1086-3214},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2014.0020},
	doi = {10.1353/jod.2014.0020},
	pages = {5￢20},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Democracy},
	author = {Horowitz, Donald L.},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Ethnicity},
}

@article{press_tunisia_2014,
	title = {Tunisia cracks down on radical mosques, media},
	url = {http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/tunisia-cracks-down-on-radical-mosques-media/2014/07/20/f0875fee-1039-11e4-ac56-773e54a65906ₛtory.html},
	author = {Press, Associated},
	date = {2014-07-20},
	keywords = {Middle East, Tunisia},
}

@report{rijkers_all_2014,
	title = {All in the family: State capture in tunisia},
	url = {https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/17726/WPS6810.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y},
	number = {6810},
	institution = {The World Bank},
	type = {Policy research working paper},
	author = {Rijkers, Bob and Freund, Caroline and Nucifora, Antonio},
	date = {2014},
}

@article{schiffbauer_too_2014,
	title = {Too little too late: Private sector growth and labor demand},
	url = {http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/978-1-4648-0405-2<sub>c</sub>h1},
	author = {Schiffbauer, Marc and Sy, Aboulaye and Hussain, Sahar and Sahnoun, Hania and Keefer, Philip and Doemeland, Doerte and Rijkers, Bob and Kadi, Dalia Al and Atiyas, Izak and Bakis, Ozan},
	date = {2014},
}

@article{hyde_information_2014,
	title = {Information and self-enforcing democracy: The role of international election observation},
	volume = {68},
	issn = {1531-5088},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article<sub>S</sub>0020818313000465},
	doi = {10.1017/S0020818313000465},
	pages = {329--359},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {International Organization},
	author = {Hyde, Susan D. and Marinov, Nikolay},
	date = {2014-03},
	keywords = {Elections},
}

@book{snyder_tunisias_2014,
	title = {Tunisia's new constitution: An eleventh hour victory for press freedom},
	url = {http://freedomhouse.org/blog/tunisia-new-constitution-eleventh-hour-victory-press-freedom#.U9Jg7fldWSo},
	author = {Snyder, Michael},
	date = {2014-01-30},
	keywords = {Middle East, Tunisia},
}

@article{stepan_democratic_2014,
	title = {Democratic parliamentary monarchies},
	volume = {25},
	issn = {1086-3214},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/jod.2014.0032},
	doi = {10.1353/jod.2014.0032},
	pages = {35￢51},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Democracy},
	author = {Stepan, Alfred and Linz, Juan J. and Minoves, Juli F.},
	date = {2014},
}

@article{valdivieso_opening_2014,
	title = {Opening the black box of social capital formation},
	volume = {108},
	issn = {1537-5943},
	url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/article<sub>S</sub>0003055413000658},
	doi = {10.1017/S0003055413000658},
	pages = {121--143},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Valdivieso, Patricio and Villena-roldán, Benjamín},
	date = {2014-02},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society},
}

@article{yamani_egypt_2014,
	title = {Egypt central bank eases control on foreign transfers},
	url = {http://www.aawsat.net/2014/01/article55326839},
	journaltitle = {Asharq Al-Awsat},
	author = {Yamani, Sharif},
	date = {2014-01-08},
	keywords = {Capital Controls, Egypt},
}

@online{fahmy_egypt_2015,
	title = {Egypt loyalists take the lead in parliament elections},
	url = {http://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-election-outcome-idUSKCN0SF2OS20151021},
	author = {Fahmy, Omar and Noueihed, Lin},
	date = {2015-10-21},
}

@online{noauthor_cisa_2015,
	title = {{CISA} security bill passes senate with privacy flaws unfixed},
	url = {https://www.wired.com/2015/10/cisa-cybersecurity-information-sharing-act-passes-senate-vote-with-privacy-flaws/},
	date = {2015-10-27},
}

@report{noauthor_doing_2015,
	title = {Doing business 2015: Going beyond efficiency},
	url = {http://www.doingbusiness.org/ /media/GIAWB/Doing%20Business/Documents/Annual-Reports/English/DB15-Chapters/DB15-Report-Overview.pdf},
	institution = {World Bank},
	type = {World bank group flagship report},
	date = {2015},
}

@article{aidt_democratic_2015,
	title = {The democratic window of opportunity: Evidence from riots in sub-saharan africa},
	url = {http://jcr.sagepub.com/content/early/2015/01/05/0022002714564014.abstract},
	pages = {1--24},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Aidt, Toke S. and Leon, Gabriel},
	date = {2015},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Instrumental Variables},
}

@article{barnhoorn_notitle_2015,
	volume = {47},
	pages = {918--929},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {{QRTEngine}: An Easy Eolution for Running Online Reaction Time Experiments using Qualtrics},
	author = {Barnhoorn, Jonathan S. and Haasnoot, Erwin and Bocanegra, Bruno R. and van Steenbergen, Henk},
	date = {2015},
}

@report{diwan_pyramid_2015,
	title = {Pyramid capitalism: Political connections, regulation, and firm productivity in egypt},
	url = {https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/22236},
	number = {7354},
	institution = {World Bank},
	type = {Policy research working paper},
	author = {Diwan, Ishac and Keefer, Philip and Schiffbauer, Marc},
	date = {2015-07},
	keywords = {Egypt, Politically Connected Firms},
}

@article{feigenbaum_how_2015,
	title = {How legislators respond to localized economic shocks: Evidence from chinese import competition},
	volume = {77},
	pages = {1012--1030},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Politics},
	author = {Feigenbaum, James J. and Hall, Andrew B.},
	date = {2015},
}

@article{grun_finite_2015,
	title = {Finite mixture model diagnostics using resampling methods},
	url = {https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/flexmix/vignettes/bootstrapping.pdf},
	author = {Grün, Bettina and Leisch, Friedrich},
	date = {2015},
}

@online{meky_two_2015,
	title = {Two years on, where is egypt's tamarod movement today?},
	url = {http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/analysis/2015/06/30/Two-years-on-where-is-Egypt-s-Tamarod-movement-today-.html},
	author = {Meky, Shounaz},
	date = {2015-06-30},
}

@article{ghanem_notitle_2015,
	url = {http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/opinion/2015/04/06/it-s-time-to-support-tunisia},
	author = {Ghanem, Hafez},
	date = {2015-04},
	keywords = {Economic Growth, Tunisia},
}

@article{harding_r_2015,
	title = {R package cat},
	url = {https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/cat/cat.pdf},
	author = {Harding, Ted and Tusell, Fernando and Schafer, Joseph L.},
	date = {2015},
}

@online{hussein_egypts_2015,
	title = {Egypt's tamarod outlives its purpose},
	url = {http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/05/egypt-tamarod-movement-political-campaign-mubarak-sisi.html},
	author = {Hussein, Walaa},
	date = {2015-05-29},
}

@article{tartar_grim_2015,
	title = {The grim economic legacy of the arab spring poster children},
	url = {http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-28/the-grim-economic-legacy-of-the-arab-spring-poster-children},
	journaltitle = {Bloomberg Business},
	author = {Tartar, Andre and Wardany, Salma El},
	date = {2015-10-27},
}

@report{noauthor_chafik_2016,
	title = {Chafik jarraya revient sur la scène avec une nouvelle polémique},
	url = {http://www.huffpostmaghreb.com/2016/05/10/chafik-jarraya-tunisieₙ₉890182.html?ir=Maghreb&ncid=tweetlnkfrhpmg00000007},
	urldate = {2017-03-10},
	date = {2016},
}

@report{noauthor_tunisia_2016,
	title = {Tunisia: Amnesty law would set back transition},
	url = {https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/07/14/tunisia-amnesty-bill-would-set-back-transition},
	urldate = {2017-03-10},
	date = {2016},
}

@report{noauthor_tunisie_2016,
	title = {Tunisie: Lancement officiel du parti de mohsen marzouk},
	url = {http://www.huffpostmaghreb.com/2016/03/20/mohsen-marzoukₙ₉512798.html},
	urldate = {2017-03-10},
	date = {2016},
}

@article{nations_household_2015,
	title = {Household sample surveys in developing and transition countries},
	journaltitle = {Studies in Methods},
	author = {Nations, United},
	date = {2015},
}

@report{ryan_tunisias_2015,
	title = {Tunisia's ruling party implodes as president beji caid essebsi stands accused of trying to build a political dynasty},
	url = {http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/tunisia-s-ruling-party-implodes-as-president-beji-caid-essebsi-stands-accused-of-trying-to-build-a-a6718626.html},
	author = {Ryan, Yasmine},
	urldate = {2017-03-10},
	date = {2015},
}

@online{noauthor_arp_2016,
	title = {{ARP} approves law on banks and financial institutions, again; opposition walks out, again},
	url = {http://tunisia-tn.com/arp-approves-law-on-banks-and-financial-institutions-again-opposition-walks-out-again/},
	urldate = {2017-03-16},
	date = {2016-06-09},
}

@report{bizarro_incorporating_2016,
	title = {Incorporating v-dem's uncertainty estimates in regression analysis},
	url = {https://kellogg.nd.edu/projects/vdem/files/2016/tutorial.pdf},
	type = {Working paper},
	author = {Bizarro, Fernando and Coppedge, Michael and Pemstein, Daniel},
	urldate = {2016-08-11},
	date = {2016-04-05},
}

@online{attalah_armed_2016,
	title = {The armed forces and business: Economic expansion in the last 12 months},
	url = {https://www.madamasr.com/en/2016/09/09/feature/economy/the-armed-forces-and-business-economic-expansion-in-the-last-12-months/},
	author = {Attalah, Lina and Hamama, Mohamed},
	date = {2016-09-09},
}

@article{boubekeur_islamists_2016,
	title = {Islamists, secularists and old regime elites in tunisia: bargained competition},
	volume = {21},
	url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13629395.2015.1081449},
	doi = {10.1080/13629395.2015.1081449},
	pages = {107--127},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Mediterranean Politics},
	author = {Boubekeur, Amel},
	date = {2016},
}

@report{lynch_tunisia_2016,
	title = {Tunisia may be lost in transition},
	url = {http://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/64510},
	author = {Lynch, Marc},
	urldate = {2017-03-10},
	date = {2016-09-08},
}

@report{metz_microsoft_2016,
	title = {Microsoft neural net shows deep learning can get way deeper},
	url = {https://www.wired.com/2016/01/microsoft-neural-net-shows-deep-learning-can-get-way-deeper/},
	institution = {Wired},
	type = {Article},
	author = {Metz, Cade},
	date = {2016},
}

@article{stan_development_team_stan_2021,
	title = {Stan modeling language users guide and reference manual},
	url = {http://mc-stan.org},
	author = {{Stan Development Team}},
	date = {2021},
}

@online{noauthor_325_2017,
	title = {32.5\% increase in egypt's foreign debt: {CBE}},
	url = {http://www.egyptindependent.com/cbe-32-5-increase-in-egypts-foreign-dept-in-march-2017/},
	date = {2017-08-01},
}

@report{powell_ideology_2016,
	title = {Ideology and party-pressure in congress: A (new) data-based approach},
	url = {https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/sites/gsb/files/pe₀9₁6ₚowell.pdf},
	institution = {University of Wisconsin-Madison},
	author = {Powell, Eleanor Neff},
	date = {2016-09-20},
}

@online{weise_tunisias_2016,
	title = {Tunisia's (olive) oil rush},
	url = {http://www.politico.eu/article/tunisias-olive-oil-rush/},
	author = {Weise, Zia},
	urldate = {2017-03-15},
	date = {2016-11-30},
}

@online{noauthor_as_2017,
	title = {As austerity pummels egypt's importers, dollar resources grow},
	url = {https://www.reuters.com/article/egypt-economy-idUSL4N1KO51X},
	date = {2017-08-03},
}

@online{noauthor_egypt_2017,
	title = {Egypt reserves reach record high of over \$36 billion},
	url = {https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middleₑast/egypt-reserves-reached-36-billion-highest-in-7-years/2017/08/01/61b293b0-76c5-11e7-8c17-533c52b2f014ₛtory.html?utmₜerm=.9f0636e210d8},
	date = {2017-08-01},
}

@online{noauthor_egypt_2017-1,
	title = {Egypt sees value-added tax revenue up by 8 billion pounds in 2017-2018},
	url = {http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL5N1H5162},
	date = {2017-03-28},
}

@online{noauthor_egypt_2017-2,
	title = {Egypt sets \$18 billion for subsidies in {FY} 2017-2018 budget},
	url = {http://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-economy-subsidies-idUSKBN18W2FX},
	date = {2017-06-05},
}

@online{noauthor_egypt_2017-3,
	title = {Egypt tightens eligibility for food subsidy cards},
	url = {https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-economy-subsidies-idUSKBN1AO134},
	date = {2017-08-08},
}

@online{noauthor_egypt_2017-4,
	title = {Egypt unemployment rate eases to 12 percent in Q1 2017},
	url = {http://af.reuters.com/article/africaTech/idAFKCN18B163-OZABS},
	date = {2017-05-17},
}

@article{noauthor_how_2017,
	title = {How much power is required to simulate the human brain?},
	url = {https://ai.stackexchange.com/questions/1314/how-powerful-a-computer-is-required-to-simulate-the-human-brain/1328},
	date = {2017-08-17},
}

@online{noauthor_jawhar_2017,
	title = {Jawhar Ben Mbarek: La loi sur la réconciliation économique impliquera l'abandon de toutes les affaires de corruption},
	url = {http://www.huffpostmaghreb.com/2017/04/24/jawher-ben-mbarek-reconciₙ₁6206566.html?1493036123},
	date = {2017-04-24},
}

@online{noauthor_mega_2017,
	title = {The mega national projects... A locomotive of development},
	url = {http://www.sis.gov.eg/section/337/4683?lang=},
	date = {2017},
}

@report{noauthor_tunisia_2017,
	title = {Tunisia extends state of emergency amid `Terror threats'},
	url = {https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20170217-tunisia-extends-state-of-emergency-amid-terror-threats/},
	urldate = {2017-03-10},
	date = {2017},
}

@report{noauthor_tunisia_2017-1,
	title = {Tunisia: Majlis nawwab ash-Sha'ab},
	url = {http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2392<sub>E</sub>.htm},
	urldate = {2017-03-07},
	date = {2017},
}

@online{el-tablawy_egypt_2017,
	title = {Egypt reels from second price hike in a week as power subsidy cut},
	url = {https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-06/egypt-reels-from-second-price-hike-in-week-as-power-subsidy-cut},
	author = {El-Tablawy, Tarek and Wahba, Abdel Latif},
	date = {2017-07-06},
}

@article{briggs_electronic_2017,
	title = {Electronic payment systems development in a developing country: The role of institutional arrangements},
	journaltitle = {The Electronic Journal of Information Systems in Developing Countries},
	author = {Briggs, Austin and Brooks, Laurence},
	date = {2017},
}

@online{loukil_non_2017,
	title = {Non à la loi de l'impunité},
	url = {https://www.facebook.com/notes/bassem-loukil/non-%C3%A0-la-loi-de-limpunit%C3%A9/420197818342133/},
	author = {Loukil, Bassem},
	urldate = {2017-04-29},
	date = {2017-04-27},
}

@article{hastie_impute_2017,
	title = {impute: Imputation for Micro-array data},
	url = {https://bioconductor.org/packages/release/bioc/html/impute.html},
	author = {Hastie, Trevor and Tibshirani, Robert and Narasimhan, Balasubramanian and Chu, Gilbert},
	date = {2017},
}

@online{ketchley_how_2017,
	title = {How egypt's generals used street protests to stage a coup},
	url = {https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/07/03/how-egypts-generals-used-street-protests-to-stage-a-coup/?utmₜerm=.c04cd44b3718},
	author = {Ketchley, Neil},
	date = {2017-07-03},
}

@article{earle_obfuscating_2019,
	title = {Obfuscating ownership},
	journaltitle = {Working Paper},
	author = {Earle, John S. and Gehlbach, Scott and Shirikov, Anton and Shpak, Solomiya},
	date = {2019},
}

@article{balietti_fast_2019,
	title = {Fast model-selection through adaptive design of experiments maximizing information gain},
	journaltitle = {Archiv},
	author = {Balietti, Stefano and Klein, Brennan and Riedl, Christoph},
	date = {2019},
}

@article{asher_politics_nodate,
	title = {Politics and local economic growth: Evidence from india},
	volume = {9},
	pages = {229--273},
	number = {1},
	author = {Asher, Sam and Novosad, Paul},
}

@book{zunes_nonviolent_1999,
	title = {Nonviolent social movements},
	publisher = {Blackwell},
	author = {Zunes, Stephen and Kurtz, Lester R and Asher, Sarah Beth},
	date = {1999},
	keywords = {Nonviolent Social Movements, Social Movement Theory},
}

@inproceedings{ziblatt_old_2015,
	title = {Old regime parties and democratization: Lessons from europe's first wave},
	booktitle = {Old regime parties and democratization: Lessons from europe's first wave},
	author = {Ziblatt, Daniel},
	date = {2015},
	keywords = {Authoritarian Successor Parties},
}

@article{zhao_comparing_2011,
	title = {Comparing twitter and traditional media using topic models},
	pages = {338--349},
	author = {Zhao, Wayne Xin and Jiang, Jing and Weng, Jianshu and He, Jing and Lim, Ee-Peng and Yan, Hongfei and Li, Xiaoming},
	date = {2011},
	keywords = {Content Analysis, Social Media Theory},
}

@book{yashar_demanding_1997,
	title = {Demanding democracy},
	publisher = {Stanford, {CA}: Stanford University Press},
	author = {Yashar, Deborah J.},
	date = {1997},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Qualitative Methods},
}

@book{woods_saddams_2011,
	title = {Saddam's generals: perspectives of the iran-iraq war},
	publisher = {Institute for Defense Analyses},
	author = {Woods, Kevin M.},
	date = {2011},
	keywords = {Iran Iraq War, Owen},
}

@book{zahid_muslim_2010,
	title = {The muslim brotherhood and egypt's succession crisis},
	publisher = {New York: Tauris Academic Studies},
	author = {Zahid, Mohammed},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {Egypt},
}

@article{wright_tunisia_1982,
	title = {Tunisia: Next friend to fall?},
	pages = {120--137},
	journaltitle = {Foreign Policy},
	author = {Wright, Claudia},
	date = {1982},
	keywords = {Qaddhafi, Tunisia, Tunisian Military},
}

@book{woodward_making_2003,
	title = {Making things happen: A theory of causal explanation},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Woodward, James},
	date = {2003},
	keywords = {Causal Methodology},
}

@article{whitt_dictator_2007,
	title = {The dictator game, fairness and ethnicity in postwar bosnia},
	volume = {51},
	pages = {655--668},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Whitt, Sam and Wilson, Rick K.},
	date = {2007-07},
	keywords = {Causal Methodology, Experiments},
}

@book{wood_insurgent_2003,
	title = {Insurgent collective action and civil war in el salvador (cambridge studies in comparative politics)},
	isbn = {0-521-01050-0},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Wood, Elisabeth Jean},
	date = {2003},
	keywords = {Civil War},
}

@article{wiens_political_2014,
	title = {The political resource curse: An empirical re-evaluation},
	volume = {67},
	pages = {783--794},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Political Research Quarterly},
	author = {Wiens, David and Roast, Paul and Clark, William Roberts},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Dynamic Probit, Rentier State, Resource Curse},
}

@article{weyland_arab_2012,
	title = {The arab spring: Why the surprising similarities with the revolutionary wave of 1848?},
	volume = {10},
	pages = {917--934},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Weyland, Kurt},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@book{weyland_bounded_2009,
	title = {Bounded rationality and policy diffusion: Social sector reform in latin america},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press},
	author = {Weyland, Kurt},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@article{weingast_political_1981,
	title = {The political economy of benefits and costs: A neoclassical approach to distributive politics},
	volume = {89},
	pages = {642},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of Political Economy},
	author = {Weingast, Barry R and Shepsle, Kenneth A and Johnsen, Christopher},
	date = {1981},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@book{wedeen_ambiguities_1999,
	title = {Ambiguities of domination},
	publisher = {Chicago, {IL}: The University of Chicago Press},
	author = {Wedeen, Lisa},
	date = {1999},
	keywords = {Middle East, Sociological Institutionalism},
}

@article{waterbury_long_1999,
	title = {The long gestation and brief triumph of import-substituting industrialization},
	volume = {27},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {World Development},
	author = {Waterbury, John},
	date = {1999},
	keywords = {Economic Development},
}

@book{waterbury_egypt_1983,
	title = {The egypt of nasser and sadat: The political economy of two regimes},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press},
	author = {Waterbury, John},
	date = {1983},
	keywords = {Egypt, Political Economy of Development},
}

@article{ware_ben_1988,
	title = {Ben ali's constitutional coup in tunisia},
	volume = {42},
	pages = {587--601},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Middle East Journal},
	author = {Ware, Lewis B.},
	date = {1988},
	keywords = {Ben Ali, Tunisian Military},
}

@book{weiss_states_1995,
	title = {States and economic development: a comparative historical analysis},
	publisher = {Polity Press Cambridge},
	author = {Weiss, Linda and Hobson, John M},
	date = {1995},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 1010},
}

@article{weingast_economic_1995,
	title = {Economic role of political institutions: Market-preserving federalism and economic development, the},
	volume = {11},
	pages = {1},
	journaltitle = {{JL} Econ. \& Org.},
	author = {Weingast, Barry R},
	date = {1995},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@book{ware_tunisia_1986,
	title = {Tunisia in the post-bourguiba era: The role of the military in a civil arab republic},
	publisher = {Maxwell Air Force Base, {AL}: Air University Press},
	author = {Ware, Lewis},
	date = {1986},
	keywords = {Tunisian militiary},
}

@article{ward_globalization_2011,
	title = {Globalization, party positions, and the median voter},
	volume = {63},
	pages = {509--547},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Ward, Hugh and Ezrow, Lawrence and Dorussen, Han},
	date = {2011},
}

@article{wantchekon_clientelism_2003,
	title = {Clientelism and voting behavior: Evidence from a field experiment in benin},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Wantchekon, Leonard},
	date = {2003},
	keywords = {Causal Methodology, Ethnicity, Experiments},
}

@incollection{waldner_rentier_2014,
	title = {Rentier states and state transformations},
	pages = {1--13},
	booktitle = {The oxford handbook of transformations of the state},
	publisher = {Oxford Handbooks Online},
	author = {Waldner, David and Smith, Benjamin},
	editor = {Leibfried, Stephan and Huber, Evelyn and Lange, Matthew and Levy, Jonah D. and Stephens, John D.},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {{CPE}, Rentier, State Capacity},
}

@unpublished{waldner_against_2015,
	title = {Against the grain of urban bias: Elite conflict and the logic of coalition formation in colonial and post-colonial africa},
	author = {Waldner, David and Peterson, Brenton and Shoup, Jon},
	date = {2015-04},
	keywords = {Political Economy, Rural Bias},
}

@incollection{waldner_what_2014,
	title = {What makes process tracing good? Causal mechanisms, causal inference, and the completeness standard in comparative politics},
	pages = {126--152},
	booktitle = {Process tracing: From metaphor to analytic tool},
	author = {Waldner, David},
	editor = {Bennet, Andrew and Checkel, Jeffrey T.},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Process-Tracing, Qualitative Methods},
}

@article{coppedge_v-dem_2016,
	title = {V-dem codebook v6},
	author = {Coppedge, Michael and Gerring, John and Linberg, Staffan I. and Skaaning, Svend-Erik and Teorell, Jan and Altman, David and Bernhard, Michael and Fish, M. Steven and Glynn, Adam and Hicken, Allen and Knutsen, Carl Henrick and {McMann}, Kelly and Paxton, Pamela and Pemstein, Daniel and Staton, Jeffrey and Zimmerman, Brigitte and Sigman, Rachel and Andersson, Frida and Mechkova, Valeriya and Miri, Farhad},
	date = {2016},
}

@book{vatikiotis_egyptian_1961,
	title = {The egyptian army in politics: Pattern for new nations?},
	publisher = {Bloomington: Indiana University Press},
	author = {Vatikiotis, P. J.},
	date = {1961},
	keywords = {Civil-military Relations, Egypt},
}

@book{evera_guide_1997,
	title = {Guide to method for students of political science},
	publisher = {Ithaca: Cornell University Press},
	author = {Evera, Stephen Van},
	date = {1997},
	keywords = {Qualitative Methods},
}

@book{waldner_state_1999,
	title = {State building and late development},
	publisher = {Cornell University Press},
	author = {Waldner, David},
	date = {1999},
}

@incollection{volpi_democratization_2014,
	title = {Democratization and authoritarianism in the arab world},
	pages = {326--337},
	publisher = {John Hopkins University Press},
	author = {Volpi, Frédéric},
	editor = {Diamond, Larry and Plattner, Marc F.},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Algeria},
}

@article{verba_civic_1963,
	title = {The civic culture},
	journaltitle = {Political Attitudes and Democracy in Five Nations, Princeton},
	author = {Verba, Sidney and Almond, Gabriel},
	date = {1963},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society},
}

@article{tsebelis_veto_2000,
	title = {Veto players and institutional analysis},
	volume = {13},
	pages = {441--474},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Governance-an International Journal of Policy and Administration},
	shortjournal = {Governance},
	author = {Tsebelis, George},
	date = {2000},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@book{box-steffensmeier_time_2014,
	title = {Time series analysis for the social sciences},
	publisher = {Cambridge: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M. and Freeman, John R. and Hitt, Matthew P. and Pevehouse, John C. W.},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Time Series},
}

@book{tilly_democracy_2007,
	title = {Democracy},
	publisher = {Cambridge Univ Press},
	author = {Tilly, Charles},
	date = {2007},
}

@book{tilly_coercion_1992,
	title = {Coercion, capital and european states, {AD} 990-1992},
	publisher = {Cambridge, {MA}: Blackwell},
	author = {Tilly, Charles},
	date = {1992},
	keywords = {Bellicist, Europe, State Formation},
}

@article{trebbi_electoral_2008,
	title = {Electoral rules and minority representation in {US} cities},
	volume = {123},
	pages = {325--357},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	author = {Trebbi, Francesco and Aghion, Philippe and Alesina, Alberto},
	date = {2008},
}

@incollection{tilly_war_1985,
	title = {War making and state making as organized crime},
	pages = {169--191},
	booktitle = {Bringing the state back in},
	publisher = {New York: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Tilly, Charles},
	editor = {Evans, Peter B. and Rueschemeyer, Dietrich and Skocpol, Theda},
	date = {1985},
	keywords = {State Formation},
}

@article{tiebout_pure_1956,
	title = {A pure theory of local expenditures},
	pages = {416--424},
	journaltitle = {The journal of political economy},
	author = {Tiebout, Charles M},
	date = {1956},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@book{tibi_arab_1990,
	title = {Arab nationalism : a critical enquiry},
	publisher = {St. Martin's Press},
	author = {Tibi, Bassam},
	editor = {Farouk-Sluglett, Marion and Sluglett, Peter},
	date = {1990},
	keywords = {Arab Political Ideology, Owen},
}

@incollection{tetlock_counterfactual_2006,
	title = {Counterfactual thought experiments: Why we can't live without them and how we must learn to live with them},
	booktitle = {Unmaking the west: What if scenarios that rewrite world history},
	publisher = {Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press},
	author = {Tetlock, {PE} and Parker, J},
	editor = {Tetlock, {PE} and Lebow, {RN} and Parker, G},
	date = {2006},
	keywords = {Causal Methodology},
}

@report{tessler_carnegie_2010,
	title = {The carnegie middle east governance and islam dataset},
	institution = {Carnegie Corporation},
	author = {Tessler, Mark},
	date = {2010},
}

@book{tilly_mobilization_1978,
	title = {From mobilization to revolution},
	publisher = {{McGraw}-Hill New York},
	author = {Tilly, Charles},
	date = {1978},
	keywords = {Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{thelen_historical_1999,
	title = {Historical institutionalism in comparative politics},
	volume = {2},
	pages = {369--404},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Thelen, Kathleen},
	date = {1999},
	keywords = {Historical Institutionalism},
}

@book{tadros_reflections_2014,
	title = {Reflections on the revolution in egypt},
	publisher = {Hoover Institution Press: Stanford, {CA}},
	author = {Tadros, Samuel},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Democratic Transitions, Egypt, Middle East},
}

@article{svolik_which_2015,
	title = {Which democracies will last? Coups, incumbent takeovers, and the dynamic of democratic consolidation},
	journaltitle = {British Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Svolik, Milan W.},
	date = {2015},
	keywords = {Change-point Models, Democratic Transitions},
}

@article{svolik_contracting_2013,
	title = {Contracting on violence: The moral hazard in authoritarian repression and military intervention in politics},
	volume = {57},
	pages = {765--794},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Svolik, Martin W.},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Civil-Military Relations, Game Theory},
}

@book{tarrow_power_1994,
	title = {Power in movement: Social movements, collective action and politics},
	publisher = {Cambridge Univ Press},
	author = {Tarrow, Sidney},
	date = {1994},
}

@book{tadelis_game_2013,
	title = {Game theory: An introduction},
	publisher = {Princeton, {NJ}: Princeton University Press},
	author = {Tadelis, Steven},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Game Theory},
}

@book{svolik_politics_2012,
	title = {The politics of authoritarian rule},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Svolik, Milan},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Authoritarian Durability},
}

@book{sunstein_republiccom_2009,
	title = {Republic.com 2.0},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press},
	author = {Sunstein, Cass R},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{stokes_political_2007,
	title = {Political clientelism},
	pages = {604--627},
	journaltitle = {The Oxford handbook of comparative politics},
	author = {Stokes, Susan},
	date = {2007},
}

@article{stokes_perverse_2005,
	title = {Perverse accountability: A formal model of machine politics with evidence from argentina},
	volume = {99},
	pages = {315--325},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Stokes, Susan C},
	date = {2005},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@collection{linz_breakdown_1979,
	title = {The breakdown of democratic regimes: Crisis, breakdown and re-equilibriation},
	volume = {1},
	publisher = {Baltimore, {MD}: The John Hopkins University Press},
	editor = {Linz, Juan J. and Stepan, Alfred},
	date = {1979},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Institutions},
}

@book{stenslie_regime_2012,
	title = {Regime stability in saudi arabia: The challenge of succession},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	author = {Stenslie, Stig},
	date = {2012},
}

@incollection{stokes_what_1999,
	title = {What do policy switches tell us about democracy?},
	pages = {98--130},
	booktitle = {Democracy, accountability, and representation},
	publisher = {Cambridge: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Stokes, Susan},
	date = {1999},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@collection{evans_bringing_1985,
	title = {Bringing the state back in},
	publisher = {Cambridge, {UK}: Cambridge University Press},
	editor = {Evans, Peter B. and Rueschemeyer, Dietrich and Skocpol, Theda},
	date = {1985},
}

@book{stacher_adaptable_2012,
	title = {Adaptable autocrats: Regime power in egypt and syria},
	publisher = {Stanford University Press: Stanford, {CA}},
	author = {Stacher, Joshua},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Authoritarian Durability, Egypt, Middle East},
}

@article{soifer_state_2008,
	title = {State infrastructural power: Approaches to conceptualization and measurement},
	volume = {43},
	pages = {231--251},
	journaltitle = {Studies in Comparative International Development},
	author = {Soifer, Hillel},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {State Formation},
}

@article{soifer_causal_2012,
	title = {The causal logic of critical junctures},
	volume = {45},
	pages = {1572--1597},
	number = {12},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Soifer, H. D.},
	date = {2012-11},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{soifer_state_2013,
	title = {State power and the economic origins of democracy},
	volume = {48},
	pages = {1--22},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Studies in Comparative International Development},
	author = {Soifer, Hillel David},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {{CPE}, Democratic Transitions, Inequality and Transitions, State Capacity},
}

@book{smith_hard_2007,
	title = {Hard times in the land of plenty: Oil politics in iran and indonesia},
	publisher = {Cornell University Press},
	author = {Smith, Benjamin},
	date = {2007},
	keywords = {Authoritarian Durability, Resource Curse, Single Parties},
}

@article{smith_oil_2004,
	title = {Oil wealth and regime survival in the developing world, 1960-1999},
	volume = {48},
	pages = {232--246},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Smith, Benjamin},
	date = {2004},
	keywords = {Rentier State, Resource Curse},
}

@inproceedings{slater_thriving_2015,
	title = {Thriving after demcoratization: Holdover parties and moderate politics in asia},
	booktitle = {Annual meeting of the american political science association},
	author = {Slater, Dan and Wong, Joseph},
	date = {2015},
	keywords = {Authoritarian Successor Parties},
}

@article{smith_contingent_2012,
	title = {Contingent prize allocation and pivotal voting},
	volume = {42},
	pages = {371--392},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {British Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Smith, Alastair and de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@article{smith_life_2005,
	title = {Life of the party: The origins of regime breakdown and persistence under authoritarian rule},
	volume = {57},
	pages = {421--451},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Smith, Benjamin},
	date = {2005},
	keywords = {Authoritarian Durability, Single Parties},
}

@article{slater_economic_2014,
	title = {Economic origins of democratic breakdown? The redistributive model and the postcolonial state},
	volume = {12},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Slater, Daniel and Smith, Benjamin and Nair, Gautam},
	date = {2014},
}

@incollection{slater_institutional_2010,
	title = {Institutional complexity and autocratic agency in indonesia},
	pages = {132--167},
	booktitle = {Explaining institutional change: Ambiguity, agency and power},
	publisher = {New York: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Slater, Dan},
	editor = {Mahoney, James and Thelen, Kathleen},
	date = {2010},
}

@article{slater_can_2008,
	title = {Can leviathan be democratic? Competitive elections, robust mass politics and state infrastructural power},
	volume = {43},
	pages = {252--272},
	journaltitle = {Studies in Comparative International Development},
	author = {Slater, Dan},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Elections, State Formation},
}

@article{siegel_social_2009,
	title = {Social networks and collective action},
	volume = {53},
	pages = {122--138},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Siegel, David A},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {Network Analysis, Social Media Theory, Social Movement Theory},
}

@book{skocpol_states_1979,
	title = {States and social revolutions},
	volume = {29},
	publisher = {Cambridge Univ Press},
	author = {Skocpol, Theda},
	date = {1979},
	keywords = {Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{singer_reconstructing_1987,
	title = {Reconstructing the correlates of war dataset on materical capabilities of states, 1816-1985},
	volume = {14},
	pages = {115--32},
	journaltitle = {International Interactions},
	author = {Singer, David J.},
	date = {1987},
	keywords = {Correlates of War},
}

@article{shor_ideological_2011,
	title = {The ideological mapping of american legislatures},
	volume = {105},
	pages = {530--551},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Shor, Boris and {McCarty}, Nolan},
	date = {2011},
}

@incollection{shepsle_rational_2008,
	title = {Rational choice institutionalism},
	pages = {23--38},
	booktitle = {The oxford handbook of political institutions},
	publisher = {New York, {NY}: Oxford University Press},
	author = {Shepsle, Kenneth A.},
	editor = {Binder, Sarah A. and Rhodes, R. A. W. and Rockman, Bert A.},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Institutions, Methodology, Rational Choice},
}

@article{shepsle_structure-induced_1981,
	title = {Structure-induced equilibrium and legislative choice},
	volume = {37},
	pages = {503--519},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Public Choice},
	author = {Shepsle, Kenneth A. and Weingast, Barry R.},
	date = {1981},
	keywords = {Structure-Induced Equilibrum},
}

@book{sharp_exploring_1970,
	title = {Exploring nonviolent alternatives},
	publisher = {Porter Sargent Publisher},
	author = {Sharp, Gene},
	date = {1970},
	keywords = {Nonviolent Social Movements, Social Movement Theory},
}

@incollection{shahin_democratic_2010,
	title = {Democratic transformation in Egypt: Controlled rreform ... frustrated hopes},
	pages = {100--120},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	author = {Shahin, Emad El-Din},
	editor = {Brown, Nathan and Shahin, Emad El-Din},
	date = {2010},
}

@book{khandker_handbook_2010,
	title = {Handbook on impact evaluation: Quantitative methods and practices},
	publisher = {Washington D.C.: World Bank},
	author = {Khandker, Shahidur R. and Koolwal, Gayatri B. and Samad, Hussain A.},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {Causal Methodology, Differences-in-Differences},
}

@article{shadish_experimental_2002,
	title = {Experimental and quasi-experimental designs for generalized causal inference},
	author = {Shadish, William R and Cook, Thomas D and Campbell, Donald Thomas},
	date = {2002},
	keywords = {{PLAD} 7090},
}

@book{lipset_party_1967,
	title = {Party systems and voter alignments: Cross-national perspectives},
	publisher = {New York: Free Press},
	author = {Lipset, Seymour M. and Rokkan, Stein},
	date = {1967},
	keywords = {Party Systems},
}

@incollection{schuman_survey_1985,
	title = {Survey methods},
	pages = {660--678},
	publisher = {Random House},
	author = {Schuman, Howard and Kaltonk, Graham},
	editor = {Lindzey, Gardner and Aronson, Eliot},
	date = {1985},
}

@article{schultz_domestic_1998,
	title = {Domestic opposition and signaling in international crises},
	volume = {92},
	pages = {829--844},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Schultz, Kenneth A.},
	date = {1998},
	keywords = {Game Theory, International Relations, Signaling},
}

@article{sekhon_quality_2004,
	title = {Quality meets quantity: Case studies, conditional probability, and counterfactuals},
	volume = {2},
	pages = {281--293},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Sekhon, Jasjeet S.},
	date = {2004-06},
	keywords = {Causal Methodology, Qualitative},
}

@article{bischoping_pens_1992,
	title = {Pens and polls in nicaragua: An analysis of the 1990 preelection surveys},
	volume = {36},
	pages = {p. 331--350},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Bischoping, Katherine and Schuman, Howard},
	date = {1992},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLAD} 7090, Readings, Users},
}

@inproceedings{schrodt_forecasting_2011,
	title = {Forecasting political conflict in asia using latent dirichlet allocation models},
	booktitle = {Annual meeting of the european political science association, dublin},
	author = {Schrodt, Philip A},
	date = {2011},
}

@incollection{al-sayyid_what_2013,
	title = {What went wrong with mubarak's regime?},
	pages = {11--28},
	booktitle = {Egypt's tahrir revolution},
	author = {al-Sayyid, Mustafa Kamal},
	editor = {Tschirgi, Dan and Kazziha, Walid and {McMahon}, Sean F.},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Egypt, Middle East},
}

@incollection{sallam_egypt_2014,
	title = {Egypt: Transition in the midst of revolution},
	pages = {35--66},
	booktitle = {Elections and democratization: The tenacious search for freedom, justice and dignity},
	publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan: New York, {NY}},
	author = {Sallam, Hesham},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Democratic Transitions, Egypt, Middle East},
}

@book{schelling_micromotives_1978,
	title = {Micromotives and macrobehavior},
	publisher = {{WW} Norton \& Company},
	author = {Schelling, Thomas C},
	date = {1978},
	keywords = {Social Movement Theory},
}

@incollection{sanders_historical_2008,
	title = {Historical institutionalism},
	pages = {39--55},
	booktitle = {The oxford handbook of political institutions},
	author = {Sanders, Elizabeth},
	editor = {Binder, Sarah A. and Rhodes, R. A. W. and Rockman, Bert A.},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Historical institutionalism, Institutions},
}

@book{salem_bitter_1994,
	title = {Bitter legacy : ideology and politics in the Arab world},
	publisher = {Syracuse University Press},
	author = {Salem, Paul},
	date = {1994},
	keywords = {Arab Political Ideology, Islamic Movements},
}

@book{little_statistical_2002,
	title = {Statistical analysis with missing data},
	publisher = {Hoboken, {NJ}: J. Wiley},
	author = {Little, Roderick J. A. and Rubin, Donald B.},
	date = {2002},
	keywords = {Missing Data Imputation},
}

@article{rubin_estimating_1974,
	title = {Estimating causal effects of treatments in randomized and non-randomized studies},
	volume = {66},
	pages = {688--701},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Educational Psychology},
	author = {Rubin, Donald B.},
	date = {1974},
	keywords = {Causal Inference},
}

@book{roy_failure_1994,
	title = {The failure of political Islam},
	publisher = {Harvard University Press},
	author = {Roy, Olivier},
	date = {1994},
	keywords = {Owen},
}

@book{ross_oil_2012,
	title = {The oil curse: How petroleum wealth shapes the development of nations},
	publisher = {Princeton: Princeton University Press},
	author = {Ross, Michael},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Oil},
}

@book{rueschemeyer_capitalist_1992,
	title = {Capitalist development and democracy},
	publisher = {Cambridge: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Rueschemeyer, Dietrich and Stephens, Evelyne Huber and Stephens, John D},
	date = {1992},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Inequality and Transitions, Qualitative, Social Structure and Coalitions},
}

@article{little_causal_2000,
	title = {Causal effects in clinical and epidemiological studies via potential outcomes: Concepts and analytical approaches},
	volume = {21},
	pages = {121--45},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Public Health},
	author = {Little, Roderick J. and Rubin, Donald B.},
	date = {2000},
	keywords = {Causal Methodology},
}

@article{rothstein_state_2008,
	title = {The state and social capital: An institutional theory of generalized trust},
	pages = {441--459},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Politics},
	author = {Rothstein, Bo and Stolle, Dietlind},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society},
}

@article{rosas_no_2015,
	title = {No news is news: Nonignorable nonresponse in roll-call data analysis},
	volume = {59},
	pages = {511--528},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Rosas, Guillermo and Shomer, Yael and Haptonstahl, Stephen R.},
	date = {2015},
}

@article{rogowski_democracy_1998,
	title = {Democracy, capital, skill, and country size: Effects of asset mobility and regime monopoly on the odds of democratic rule},
	pages = {48--69},
	journaltitle = {The origins of liberty: Political and economic liberalization in the modern world},
	author = {Rogowski, Ronald},
	date = {1998},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Emigration and Democracy, Inequality and Transitions},
}

@incollection{rodden_back_2009,
	title = {Back to the future: Endogenous institutions and comparative politics},
	booktitle = {Comparative politics: Rationality, culture, and structure},
	publisher = {Cambridge Univ Press},
	author = {Rodden, Jonathan},
	date = {2009},
}

@article{rosenbaum_reducing_1984,
	title = {Reducing bias in observational studies using subclassification on the propensity score},
	volume = {79},
	pages = {516--24},
	journaltitle = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
	author = {Rosenbaum, Paul R. and Rubin, Donald B.},
	date = {1984},
	keywords = {Matching},
}

@article{rosas_local_2013,
	title = {Local public goods as vote-purchasing devices? Persuasion and mobilization in the choice of clientelist payments},
	pages = {0951629813511549},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Theoretical Politics},
	author = {Rosas, Guillermo and Johnston, Noel P and Hawkins, Kirk},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@book{rodgers_atlantic_1998,
	title = {Atlantic crossings: Social politics in a progressive age},
	publisher = {Belknap Press},
	author = {Rodgers, Daniel T},
	date = {1998},
	keywords = {American and European Socialism},
}

@article{riker_implications_1980,
	title = {Implications from the disequlibrium of majority rule for the study of institutions},
	volume = {74},
	pages = {432--446},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The American Political Science Review},
	author = {Riker, William},
	date = {1980},
	keywords = {Rational Choice},
}

@book{reinharz_feminist_1992,
	title = {Feminist methods in social research.},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Reinharz, Shulamit and Davidman, Lynn},
	date = {1992},
}

@article{regan_greed_2005,
	title = {Greed, grievance, and mobilization in civil wars},
	volume = {49},
	pages = {319--336},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Regan, Patrick M and Norton, Daniel},
	date = {2005},
	keywords = {Civil War, Revolutions, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{riley_silver_2001,
	title = {Silver signals: Twenty-five years of screening and signaling},
	pages = {432--478},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Economic Literature},
	author = {Riley, John G},
	date = {2001},
	keywords = {Signaling Games},
}

@book{riker_liberalism_1982,
	title = {Liberalism against populism},
	publisher = {Prospect Heights, {IL}: Waveland Press},
	author = {Riker, William},
	date = {1982},
	keywords = {Rational Choice},
}

@book{reynolds_designing_2010,
	title = {Designing democracy in a dangerous world},
	publisher = {New York: Oxford University Press},
	author = {Reynolds, Andrew},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Elections, Institutional Theory},
}

@article{reicher_mass_2011,
	title = {Mass action and mundane reality: an argument for putting crowd analysis at the centre of the social sciences},
	volume = {6},
	pages = {433--449},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Contemporary Social Science},
	author = {Reicher, Stephen},
	date = {2011},
	keywords = {Social Movement Theory},
}

@incollection{rashidi_cairo_2013,
	title = {Cairo, city in waiting},
	pages = {48--65},
	booktitle = {Diaries of an unfinished revolution: Voices from tunis to damascus},
	publisher = {Penguin Books: New York, {NY}},
	author = {Rashidi, Yasmine El},
	editor = {al-Zubaidi, Layla and Cassel, Matthew and Roderick, Nemonie Craven},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Egypt, Middle East},
}

@incollection{putnam_introduction_2002,
	title = {Introduction},
	pages = {3--19},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Putnam, Robert D. and Goss, Kristin A.},
	editor = {Putnam, Robert D.},
	date = {2002},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society},
}

@book{rand_roots_2013,
	title = {Roots of the arab spring: Contested authority and political change in the middle east},
	publisher = {University of Pennsylvania Press},
	author = {Rand, Dafna Hochman},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Arab Spring},
}

@book{quandt_between_1998,
	title = {Between ballots and bullets: Algeria's transition from authoritarianism},
	publisher = {Brookings Institution Press},
	author = {Quandt, William B.},
	date = {1998},
	keywords = {Algeria},
}

@book{putnam_democracies_2002,
	title = {Democracies in flux: The evolution of social capital in contemporary society},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Putnam, Robert D},
	date = {2002},
}

@article{putnam_bowling_1995,
	title = {Bowling alone: America's declining social capital},
	volume = {6},
	pages = {65--78},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Journal of democracy},
	author = {Putnam, Robert D},
	date = {1995},
}

@book{putnam_making_1994,
	title = {Making democracy work: Civic traditions in modern Italy},
	publisher = {Princeton university press},
	author = {Putnam, Robert D and Leonardi, Robert and Nanetti, Raffaella Y},
	date = {1994},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society},
}

@incollection{przeworski_is_2009,
	title = {Is the science of comparative politics possible?},
	pages = {147--171},
	booktitle = {The oxford handbook of comparative politics},
	publisher = {Oxford, {UK}: Oxford University Press},
	author = {Przeworski, Adam},
	editor = {Boix, Carles and Stokes, Susan C.},
	date = {2009},
}

@book{przeworski_democracy_1999,
	title = {Democracy, accountability, and representation},
	volume = {2},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Przeworski, Adam and Stokes, Susan C and Manin, Bernard},
	date = {1999},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@incollection{przeworski_problems_1986,
	title = {Some problems in the study of the transition to democracy},
	booktitle = {Transitions from authoritarian rule: Comparative perspectives},
	publisher = {Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press},
	author = {Przeworski, Adam},
	editor = {O'Donnell, Guillermo and Schmitter, Philippe C. and Whitehead, Laurence},
	date = {1986},
}

@article{przeworski_conquered_2009,
	title = {Conquered or granted? A history of suffrage extensions},
	volume = {39},
	pages = {291--321},
	journaltitle = {British Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Przeworski, Adam},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Inequality and Transitions},
}

@book{przeworski_democracy_2000,
	title = {Democracy and development: Political institutions and well-being in the world, 1950-1990},
	publisher = {New York: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Przeworski, Adam and Alvarez, Michael E. and Cheibub, José Antonio and Límongi, Fernando},
	date = {2000},
}

@book{przeworski_democracy_1991,
	title = {Democracy and the market: Political and economic reforms in Eastern Europe and Latin America},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Przeworski, Adam},
	date = {1991},
}

@book{porter_clusters_1998,
	title = {Clusters and the new economics of competition},
	volume = {76},
	number = {6},
	publisher = {Harvard Business Review Boston},
	author = {Porter, Michael E},
	date = {1998},
}

@book{poole_congress_1997,
	title = {Congress: A political-economic history of roll call voting},
	author = {Poole, Keith and Rosenthal, Howard L.},
	date = {1997},
}

@book{przeworski_logic_1970,
	title = {The logic of comparative social inquiry},
	publisher = {New York: Wiley},
	author = {Przeworski, Adam and Teune, Henry},
	date = {1970},
}

@article{posner_political_2004,
	title = {The political salience of cultural difference: Why chewas and tumbukas are allies in zambia and adversaries in malawi},
	volume = {98},
	pages = {529--545},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {The American Political Science Review},
	author = {Posner, Daniel N.},
	date = {2004-11},
	keywords = {Ethnicity, Experiments, Qualitative},
}

@book{della_porta_social_1995,
	location = {Cambridge [England] ;},
	title = {Social movements, political violence, and the state : a comparative analysis of Italy and Germany},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press,},
	author = {della Porta, Donatella},
	date = {1995},
	keywords = {Nonviolent Social Movements, Social Movement Theory},
}

@book{pollock_essentials_2012,
	title = {The essentials of political analysis},
	publisher = {{CQ} Press},
	author = {Pollock, Philip H.},
	date = {2012},
}

@book{polanyi_great_1944,
	title = {The great transformation: The political and economic origins of our time},
	publisher = {Boston, {MA}: Beacon Press},
	author = {Polanyi, Karl},
	date = {1944},
	keywords = {Historical Institutionalism, Welfare States},
}

@book{persson_political_2002,
	title = {Political economics: explaining economic policy},
	publisher = {{MIT} press},
	author = {Persson, Torsten and Tabellini, Guido Enrico},
	date = {2002},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@article{persson_constitutions_2002,
	title = {Do constitutions cause large governments?: Quasi-experimental evidence},
	pages = {908--918},
	number = {46},
	journaltitle = {European Economic Review},
	author = {Persson, Torsten and Tabellini, Guido},
	date = {2002},
	keywords = {Causal Inference, Matching},
}

@article{pepinsky_institutional_2014,
	title = {The institutional turn in comparative authoritarianism},
	volume = {44},
	pages = {631--653},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {The British Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Pepinsky, Thomas},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Authoritarian Durability, Endogeneity of Institutions},
}

@book{pierson_politics_2004,
	title = {Politics in time: History, institutions, and social analysis},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press},
	author = {Pierson, Paul},
	date = {2004},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@article{persson_growth_2007,
	title = {The growth effect of democracy: Is it heterogeneous and how can it be estimated?},
	journaltitle = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Persson, Torsten and Tabellini, Guido},
	date = {2007-06},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Differences-in-Differences, Matching, Time Series},
}

@article{perla_two-parameter_1980,
	title = {A two-parameter model of snow-avalanche motion},
	volume = {26},
	pages = {197--207},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Glaciology},
	author = {Perla, R and Cheng, {TT} and {McClung}, David M},
	date = {1980},
	keywords = {Social Media Theory},
}

@article{pearlman_emotions_2013,
	title = {Emotions and the microfoundations of the arab uprisings},
	volume = {11},
	pages = {387--409},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Pearlman, Wendy},
	date = {2013},
}

@book{owen_confronting_2014,
	title = {Confronting political islam: Six lesson's from the west's past},
	publisher = {Princeton, {NJ}: Princeton University Press},
	author = {Owen, John M.},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Ideology, Middle East},
}

@unpublished{owen_springs_2014,
	title = {Springs and their offspring: The international consequences of domestic uprisings},
	author = {Owen, John M.},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Ideology, Middle East},
}

@book{owen_clash_2010,
	title = {The clash of ideas in world politics: Transnational networks, states, and regime change, 1510-2010},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press},
	author = {Owen, John M.},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {Islamic Movements, Middle East – Regime Type, Owen},
}

@book{olson_logic_2009,
	title = {The logic of collective action: public goods and the theory of groups.},
	volume = {124},
	publisher = {Harvard University Press},
	author = {Olson, Mancur},
	date = {2009},
}

@article{olken_monitoring_2007,
	title = {Monitoring corruption: Evidence from a field experiment in indonesia},
	volume = {115},
	pages = {200--249},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Political Economy},
	author = {Olken, Benjamin},
	date = {2007},
}

@article{ortiz_rocks_2013,
	title = {Rocks, bottles, and weak autocracies: The role of political regime settings on contention-repression interactions},
	volume = {18},
	pages = {289--312},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Mobilization: An International Quarterly},
	author = {Ortiz, David G},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Nonviolent Social Movements, Revolutions},
}

@book{odonnell_transitions_1986,
	title = {Transitions from authoritarian rule: Tentative conclusions about uncertain democracies},
	publisher = {Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press},
	author = {O'Donnell, Guillermo and Schmitter, Philippe C},
	date = {1986},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Economic Structures, Political Elites},
}

@book{noueihed_battle_2013,
	title = {The battle for the arab spring: Revolution, counter-revolution and the making of a new era},
	isbn = {0-300-19415-3},
	publisher = {Yale University Press},
	author = {Noueihed, Lin and Warren, Alex},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Middle East},
}

@book{north_institutions_1990,
	title = {Institutions, institutional change and economic performance},
	publisher = {New York, {NY}: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {North, Douglass C.},
	date = {1990},
}

@book{lust-okar_structuring_2005,
	title = {Structuring conflict in the arab world: Incumbents, opponents, and institutions},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Lust-Okar, Ellen},
	date = {2005},
}

@article{north_constitutions_1989,
	title = {Constitutions and commitment: The evolution of institutions governing public choice in seventeenth-century england},
	volume = {49},
	pages = {803--832},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {The journal of economic history},
	author = {North, Douglass C. and Weingast, Barry R.},
	date = {1989},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@book{norris_democratic_2002,
	title = {Democratic phoenix: Reinventing political activism},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Norris, Pippa},
	date = {2002},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society},
}

@article{nielsen_stochastic_2000,
	title = {The stochastic {EM} algorithm: Estimation and asymptotic results},
	volume = {6},
	pages = {457--489},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Bernoulli},
	author = {Nielsen, Søoren Feodor},
	date = {2000},
	keywords = {{EM} Algorithms},
}

@article{nichter_vote_2008,
	title = {Vote buying or turnout buying? Machine politics and the secret ballot},
	volume = {102},
	pages = {19--31},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American political science review},
	author = {Nichter, Simeon},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@book{neumann_theory_1947,
	title = {Theory of games and economic behavior},
	publisher = {Princeton, {NJ}: Princeton University Press},
	author = {Neumann, John Von and Morgenstern, Oskar},
	date = {1947},
}

@collection{nepstad_sharon_erickson_kurtz_nonviolent_2012,
	location = {Bingley, {UK} :},
	title = {Nonviolent conflict and civil resistance},
	series = {Research in social movements, conflicts and change ;},
	publisher = {Emerald},
	editor = {Nepstad, Sharon Erickson. Kurtz, Lester R.},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Nonviolent Social Movements, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{nash_non-cooperative_1951,
	title = {Non-cooperative games},
	volume = {54},
	pages = {286--295},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Annals of Mathematics},
	author = {Nash, John},
	date = {1951},
	keywords = {Game Theory and Formal Modeling},
}

@article{neyman_consistent_1948,
	title = {Consistent estimates based on partially consistent observations},
	volume = {16},
	pages = {1--32},
	journaltitle = {Econometrica},
	author = {Neyman, J. and Scott, E. L.},
	date = {1948},
}

@article{neyman_statistical_1935,
	title = {Statistical problems in agricultural experimentation (with discussion)},
	volume = {2},
	pages = {107--80},
	journaltitle = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society},
	author = {Neyman, Jerzy Splawa},
	date = {1935},
	keywords = {Causal Inference},
}

@thesis{nassif_generals_2014,
	title = {Generals and autocrats: Coup-proofing and military elite's behavior in the 2011 arab spring},
	institution = {Indiana University},
	type = {phdthesis},
	author = {Nassif, Hicham Bou},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Civil-Military Relations, Tunisia},
}

@article{murthy_twitter_2011,
	title = {Twitter: Microphone for the masses?},
	volume = {33},
	pages = {779},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {Media Culture and Society},
	author = {Murthy, Dhiraj},
	date = {2011},
	keywords = {Social Media Theory},
}

@book{murphy_political_1999,
	title = {Political and economic change in tunisia: From bourguiba to ben ali},
	publisher = {New York, {NY}: St. Martin's Press},
	author = {Murphy, Emma C.},
	date = {1999},
	keywords = {Middle East, Tunisia},
}

@article{munck_conceptualizing_2002,
	title = {Conceptualizing and measuring democracy: Evaluating alternative indices},
	volume = {35},
	pages = {5--34},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Munck, Gerardo L. and Verkuilen, Jay},
	date = {2002-02},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions},
}

@article{muller_income_1985,
	title = {Income inequality, regime repressiveness, and political violence},
	volume = {50},
	pages = {47--61},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Sociological Review},
	author = {Muller, Edward N.},
	date = {1985},
	keywords = {Inequality and Transitions},
}

@incollection{mossallam_these_2013,
	title = {`These are liberated territories': everyday resistance in Egypt},
	booktitle = {Democratic transition in the middle east},
	publisher = {Routledge: New York, {NY}},
	author = {Mossallam, Alia},
	editor = {Sadiki, Larbi and Wimmen, Heiko and al-Zubaidi, Layla},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Democratic Transitions, Egypt, Middle East},
}

@article{murphy_tunisian_2013,
	title = {The tunisian elections of october 2011: A democratic consensus},
	volume = {18},
	pages = {231--247},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of North African Studies},
	author = {Murphy, Emma C.},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Democratic Transitions, Elections, Tunisia},
}

@book{morton_experimental_2010,
	title = {Experimental political science and the study of causality: From nature to the lab},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Morton, Rebecca B and Williams, Kenneth C},
	date = {2010},
}

@book{morton_methods_1999,
	title = {Methods and models},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Morton, Rebecca B},
	date = {1999},
}

@article{morozov_iran_2009,
	title = {Iran: Downside to the" Twitter Revolution"},
	volume = {56},
	pages = {10--14},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Dissent},
	author = {Morozov, Evgeny},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {Middle East, Social Media Theory},
}

@book{moore_social_1966,
	title = {Social origins of dictatorship and democracy: Lord and peasant in the making of the modern world},
	publisher = {Beacon Press: Boston.},
	author = {Moore, Barrington},
	date = {1966},
	keywords = {{CPE}, Inequality and Transitions},
}

@book{moore_tunisia_1965,
	title = {Tunisia since independence},
	publisher = {University of California Press},
	author = {Moore, Clement Henry},
	date = {1965},
	keywords = {Single Parties, Tunisia},
}

@article{mitchell_economic_1991,
	title = {Economic models of interest groups: an introductory survey},
	pages = {512--546},
	journaltitle = {American journal of political science},
	author = {Mitchell, William C and Munger, Michael C},
	date = {1991},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@book{morgan_counterfactuals_2007,
	title = {Counterfactuals and causal inference: Methods and principles for social research},
	publisher = {New York: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Morgan, Stephen L. and Winship, Christopher},
	date = {2007},
	keywords = {Causal Methodology, Experiments},
}

@article{mitchell_limits_1991,
	title = {The limits of the state: Beyond statist approaches and their critics},
	volume = {85},
	pages = {77--96},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The American Political Science Review},
	author = {Mitchell, Timothy},
	date = {1991},
	keywords = {State Formation},
}

@incollection{mislevy_missing_2016,
	title = {Missing responses in item response modeling},
	pages = {171--193},
	booktitle = {Handbook of item response theory},
	publisher = {{CRC} Press},
	author = {Mislevy, Robert J.},
	editor = {der Linden, Wim J. Van},
	date = {2016},
}

@article{meyer_institutionalized_1977,
	title = {Institutionalized organizations: Formal structure as myth and ceremony},
	volume = {83},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Sociology},
	author = {Meyer, John W. and Rowan, Brian},
	date = {1977},
	keywords = {Sociological Institutionalism},
}

@article{meltzer_rational_1981,
	title = {A rational theory of the size of government},
	pages = {914--927},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of Political Economy},
	author = {Meltzer, Allan H and Richard, Scott F},
	date = {1981},
	keywords = {Inequality and Transitions, {PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@book{milner_interests_1997,
	title = {Interests, institutions, and information: Domestic politics and international relations},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press},
	author = {Milner, Helen V},
	date = {1997},
	keywords = {Alliance Behavior, Institutional Theory, International Relations},
}

@book{migdal_strong_1988,
	title = {Strong societies and weak states: State-society relations and state capabilities in the third world},
	publisher = {Princeton: Princeton University Press},
	author = {Migdal, Joel S.},
	date = {1988},
}

@article{amadae_rochester_1999,
	title = {The rochester school: The origins of positive political theory},
	volume = {2},
	pages = {269--95},
	journaltitle = {Annual Reviews of Political Science},
	author = {Amadae, S. M. and de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno},
	date = {1999},
}

@book{medina_unified_2007,
	title = {A unified theory of collective action and social change},
	publisher = {Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press},
	author = {Medina, Luis Fernando},
	date = {2007},
	keywords = {Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{mcmahon_guardianship_2015,
	title = {The guardianship dilemma: Regime security through and from the armed forces},
	volume = {109},
	pages = {297--313},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {{McMahon}, R. Blake and Slantchev, Branislav L.},
	date = {2015},
	keywords = {Civil-Military Relations},
}

@report{mcfate_military_2005,
	title = {The military utility of understanding adversary culture},
	institution = {{DTIC} Document},
	author = {{McFate}, Montgomery},
	date = {2005},
}

@article{medina_analytical_2013,
	title = {The analytical foundations of collective action theory: A survey of some recent developments},
	volume = {16},
	pages = {259--283},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Medina, Luis Fernando},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{mckelvey_general_1979,
	title = {General conditions for global intransitivities in formal voting models},
	volume = {47},
	pages = {1085--1112},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {Econometrica},
	author = {{McKelvey}, Richard D.},
	date = {1979},
	keywords = {Structure-induced Equilibrium},
}

@book{mcadam_dynamics_2001,
	title = {Dynamics of contention},
	publisher = {Cambridge, {UK}: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {{McAdam}, Doug and Tarrow, Sidney and Tilly, Charles},
	date = {2001},
	keywords = {Social Movements},
}

@article{matesan_impact_2012,
	title = {The impact of the arab spring on islamist strategies.},
	volume = {5},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Strategic Security},
	author = {Matesan, Ioana Emy},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Islamic Movements},
}

@book{marx_marx-engels_1978,
	title = {The marx-engels reader},
	publisher = {Norton},
	author = {Marx, Karl},
	editor = {Tucker, Robert C.},
	date = {1978},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@book{marx_18th_2001,
	title = {The 18th brumaire of louis bonaparte [electronic resource]},
	publisher = {Electric Book Company},
	author = {Marx, Karl},
	date = {2001},
}

@article{mccarthy_resource_1977,
	title = {Resource mobilization and social movements: A partial theory},
	pages = {1212--1241},
	journaltitle = {American journal of sociology},
	author = {{McCarthy}, John D and Zald, Mayer N},
	date = {1977},
}

@incollection{mcadam_initiator_1995,
	title = {`Initiator' and `Spin-off' movements: Diffusion processes in protest cycles},
	pages = {217--39},
	booktitle = {Repertoires and cycles of collective action},
	publisher = {Durham, {NC}: Duke University Press},
	author = {{McAdam}, Doug},
	editor = {Traugott, Mark},
	date = {1995},
	keywords = {Nonviolent Social Movements, Revolutions, Social Movement Theory},
}

@book{masoud_counting_2014,
	title = {Counting islam: Religion, class and elections in egypt},
	publisher = {New York: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Masoud, Tarek},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Elections, Islamic Movements, Middle East, Social Movement Theory},
}

@incollection{march_logic_2006,
	title = {The logic of appropriateness},
	pages = {689--708},
	booktitle = {The oxford handbook of public policy},
	publisher = {Oxford, {UK}: Oxford University Press},
	author = {March, James G. and Olsen, Johan P.},
	editor = {Moran, Michael and Rein, Martin and Goodin, Robert E.},
	date = {2006},
	keywords = {Weber},
}

@article{mann_autonomous_1984,
	title = {The autonomous power of the state: Its origins, mechanisms and results},
	volume = {25},
	pages = {185--213},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {European Journal of Sociology},
	author = {Mann, {MIchael}},
	date = {1984},
	keywords = {State Formation},
}

@article{malik_economics_2013,
	title = {The economics of the arab spring},
	volume = {45},
	pages = {296--313},
	journaltitle = {World Development},
	author = {Malik, Adeel and Awadallah, Bassem},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Middle East, Political Economy},
}

@article{marinov_coups_2014,
	title = {Coups and democracy},
	volume = {44},
	pages = {799--825},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {British Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Marinov, Nikolay and Goemans, Hein},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Military Coups},
}

@book{mann_sources_1986,
	title = {The sources of social power: A history of power from the beginning to {AD} 1760},
	publisher = {Cambridge, {UK}: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Mann, Michael},
	date = {1986},
	keywords = {State Formation},
}

@incollection{mainwaring_party_2006,
	title = {Party system institutionalization and party system theory after the third wave of democratization},
	pages = {204--227},
	booktitle = {Handbook of party politics},
	publisher = {London: {SAGE} Publications},
	author = {Mainwaring, Scott and Torcal, Mariano},
	editor = {Katz, Richard S. and Crotty, William},
	date = {2006},
	keywords = {Party Systems},
}

@article{mahoney_logic_2012,
	title = {The logic of process tracing tests in the social sciences},
	volume = {41},
	pages = {570--597},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Sociological Methods \& Research},
	author = {Mahoney, James},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Process Tracing},
}

@book{magaloni_voting_2006,
	title = {Voting for autocracy: Hegemonic party survival and its demise in mexico},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Magaloni, Beatrice},
	date = {2006},
	keywords = {Authoritarianism, Latin America},
}

@book{lynch_arab_2013,
	title = {The Arab uprising: the unfinished revolutions of the new Middle East},
	publisher = {{PublicAffairs} Store},
	author = {Lynch, Marc},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Middle East},
}

@book{mair_party_1997,
	title = {Party system change: Approaches and interpretations},
	publisher = {Oxford: Clarendon Press},
	author = {Mair, Peter},
	date = {1997},
	keywords = {Party Systems},
}

@article{mahoney_theory_2010,
	title = {A theory of gradual institutional change},
	pages = {1--37},
	journaltitle = {Explaining institutional change: ambiguity, agency, and power},
	author = {Mahoney, James and Thelen, Kathleen},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@article{lotan_arab_2011,
	title = {The Arab Spring{\textbar} the revolutions were tweeted: Information flows during the 2011 Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions},
	volume = {5},
	pages = {31},
	journaltitle = {International Journal of Communication},
	author = {Lotan, Gilad and Graeff, Erhardt and Ananny, Mike and Gaffney, Devin and Pearce, Ian and {others}},
	date = {2011},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Social Media Theory},
}

@unpublished{lorentzen_using_2014,
	title = {Using process tracing to evaluate formal models},
	author = {Lorentzen, Peter and Fravel, M. Taylor and Paine, Jack},
	date = {2014-04},
	keywords = {Bayesian Process Tracing, Process Tracing},
}

@article{lyall_does_2009,
	title = {Does indiscriminate violence incite insurgent attacks?: Evidence from chechnya},
	volume = {53},
	pages = {331--362},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
	author = {Lyall, Jason},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {Civil War, Differences-in-Differences, Matching},
}

@article{lutterbeck_tool_2015,
	title = {Tool of rule: the tunisian police under ben ali},
	volume = {20},
	pages = {813--831},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of North African Studies},
	author = {Lutterbeck, Derek},
	date = {2015},
	keywords = {Tunisia},
}

@incollection{lust_notitle_2015,
	author = {Lust, Ellen and Waldner, David},
	date = {2015},
}

@article{luebbert_social_1987,
	title = {Social foundations of political order in interwar Europe},
	volume = {39},
	pages = {449--478},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Luebbert, Gregory M.},
	date = {1987},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@article{loxton_authoritarian_2015,
	title = {Authoritarian successor parties},
	volume = {26},
	pages = {157--170},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Democracy},
	author = {Loxton, James},
	date = {2015},
	keywords = {Authoritarian Successor Parties},
}

@book{lowi_oil_2009,
	title = {Oil wealth and the poverty of politics: Algeria compared},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Lowi, Miriam},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {Algeria},
}

@article{lohmann_collective_2000,
	title = {Collective action cascades: An informational rationale for the power in numbers},
	volume = {14},
	pages = {655--684},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Economic Surveys},
	author = {Lohmann, Susanne},
	date = {2000},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Game Theory and Formal Modeling, Signaling Games, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{lohmann_dynamics_1994,
	title = {The dynamics of informational cascades},
	volume = {47},
	pages = {42--101},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {World politics},
	author = {Lohmann, Susanne},
	date = {1994},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Game Theory and Formal Modeling, Signaling Games, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{lohmann_signaling_1993,
	title = {A signaling model of informative and manipulative political action.},
	volume = {87},
	pages = {319--333},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Lohmann, Susanne},
	date = {1993},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Game Theory and Formal Modeling, Signaling Games, Social Movement Theory},
}

@book{linz_problems_1996,
	title = {Problems of democratic transition and consolidation: Southern europe, south america, and post-communist europe},
	publisher = {The John Hopkins University Press},
	author = {Linz, Juan J. and Stepan, Alfred},
	date = {1996},
}

@book{lin_social_2002,
	title = {Social capital: A theory of social structure and action},
	volume = {19},
	publisher = {Cambridge university press},
	author = {Lin, Nan},
	date = {2002},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society},
}

@book{ljiphart_democracy_1977,
	title = {Democracy in plural societies},
	publisher = {New Haven, {CT}: Yale University Press},
	author = {Ljiphart, Arend},
	date = {1977},
	keywords = {Electoral Systems, Institutions, Quality of Democracy},
}

@article{lipset_social_1959,
	title = {Some social requisites of democracy: Economic development and political legitimacy},
	volume = {53},
	pages = {69--105},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The American Political Science Review},
	author = {Lipset, Seymour M.},
	date = {1959-03},
	keywords = {Inequality and Transitions},
}

@book{lichbach_is_2003,
	title = {Is rational choice theory all of social science?},
	publisher = {University of Michigan Press},
	author = {Lichbach, Mark I.},
	date = {2003},
}

@article{levitsky_variation_2009,
	title = {Variation in institutional strength},
	volume = {12},
	pages = {115--133},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Levitsky, Steven and Murillo, Mara Victoria},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@book{levi_rule_1989,
	title = {Of rule and revenue},
	publisher = {Berkely, {CA}: University of California Press},
	author = {Levi, Margaret},
	date = {1989},
}

@inproceedings{leetaru_gdelt_2013,
	title = {{GDELT}: Global data on events, language, and tone, 1979-2012},
	booktitle = {International studies association annual conference},
	author = {Leetaru, Kalev and Schrodt, P},
	date = {2013},
}

@book{lichbach_rebels_1998,
	title = {The rebel's dilemma},
	publisher = {University of Michigan Press},
	author = {Lichbach, Mark Irving},
	date = {1998},
	keywords = {Social Movement Theory},
}

@incollection{levi_model_1997,
	title = {A model, a method, and a map: Rational choice in comparative and historical analysis},
	pages = {19--41},
	booktitle = {Comparative politics: Rationality, culture and structure},
	publisher = {Cambridge, {UK}: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Levi, Margaret},
	editor = {Lichbach, Mark Irving and Zuckerman, Alan S.},
	date = {1997},
	keywords = {Rational Choice},
}

@incollection{lesch_arab_2012,
	title = {Arab spring in egypt},
	pages = {p. 17--42},
	publisher = {American University in Cairo Press},
	author = {Lesch, Ann M.},
	editor = {Korany, Bahgat and el-Mahdi, Rabab},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Arab Spring},
}

@article{lee_randomized_2008,
	title = {Randomized experiments from non-random selection in U.S. house elections},
	volume = {142},
	pages = {675--697},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Econometrics},
	author = {Lee, David S.},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Regression Discontinuity},
}

@book{lawrence_imperial_2013,
	title = {Imperial rule and the politics of nationalism: Anti-colonial protest in the french empire},
	publisher = {Cambridge, {UK}: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Lawrence, Adria},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Colonialism, Middle East},
}

@unpublished{larreguy_monitoring_2013,
	location = {Harvard},
	title = {Monitoring political brokers: Evidence from clientelistic networks in mexico},
	author = {Larreguy, Horacio A.},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Corruption, Elections, Game Theory and Formal Modeling, Signaling Games},
}

@article{lagerlof_dynamic_2012,
	title = {A dynamic theory of competence, loyalty and stability in dictatorships},
	volume = {12},
	pages = {1--39},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics},
	author = {Lagerlöf, Nils-Petter},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Civil-Military Relations, Game Theory, State Formation},
}

@incollection{langohr_arab_2014,
	title = {The arab uprisings explained},
	pages = {180--217},
	publisher = {Columbia University Press},
	author = {Langohr, Vickie},
	editor = {Lynch, Marc},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Labor Movements},
}

@book{lave_introduction_1993,
	title = {Introduction to models in the social sciences},
	publisher = {University Press of America},
	author = {Lave, Charles A and March, James Gardner},
	date = {1993},
	keywords = {{PLAD} 7090},
}

@book{lange_lineages_2009,
	title = {Lineages of despotism and development: British colonialism and state power},
	publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
	author = {Lange, Matthew},
	date = {2009},
}

@article{ladd_exploiting_2009,
	title = {Exploiting a rare communication shift to document the persuasive power of the news media},
	volume = {53},
	pages = {394--410},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Ladd, Jonathan {McDonald} and Lenz, Gabriel S.},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {Differences-in-Differences, Political Communication},
}

@article{kuran_east_1991,
	title = {The East European revolution of 1989: is it surprising that we were surprised?},
	volume = {81},
	pages = {121--125},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The American Economic Review},
	author = {Kuran, Timur},
	date = {1991},
	keywords = {Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{kuran_availability_1999,
	title = {Availability cascades and risk regulation},
	pages = {683--768},
	journaltitle = {Stanford Law Review},
	author = {Kuran, Timur and Sunstein, Cass R},
	date = {1999},
	keywords = {Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{kuran_inevitability_1995,
	title = {The inevitability of future revolutionary surprises},
	pages = {1528--1551},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Sociology},
	author = {Kuran, Timur},
	date = {1995},
	keywords = {Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{kuran_sparks_1989,
	title = {Sparks and prairie fires: A theory of unanticipated political revolution},
	volume = {61},
	pages = {41--74},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Public Choice},
	author = {Kuran, Timur},
	date = {1989},
	keywords = {Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{kuehn_combining_2013,
	title = {Combining game theory models and process tracing: Potential and limits},
	volume = {12},
	pages = {52--63},
	journaltitle = {European Political Science},
	author = {Kuehn, David},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Game Theory, Process tracing},
}

@article{krueger_political_1974,
	title = {The political economy of the rent-seeking society},
	pages = {291--303},
	journaltitle = {The American economic review},
	author = {Krueger, Anne O},
	date = {1974},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@article{kropko_multiple_2014,
	title = {Multiple imputation for continuous and categorical data: Comparing joint multivariate normal and conditional approaches},
	volume = {22},
	pages = {497--519},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Kropko, Jonathan and Goodrich, Ben and Gelman, Andrew and Hill, Jennifer},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Missing Data Imputation},
}

@article{krivitsky_representing_2009,
	title = {Representing degree distributions, clustering and homophily in social networks with latent cluster random effects},
	volume = {31},
	pages = {204--213},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Social Networks},
	author = {Krivitsky, Pavel N. and Handcock, Mark S. and Raftery, Adrian E. and Hoff, Peter D.},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {Community Detection, Social Network Analysis},
}

@unpublished{kreuzer_look_2015,
	title = {Look before you leap: The hidden logic of bayesian analysis},
	author = {Kreuzer, Markus and {DeFina}, Robert},
	date = {2015-08},
	keywords = {Bayesian Process Tracing},
}

@book{kreps_game_1990,
	title = {Game theory and economic modelling},
	isbn = {978-0-19-828381-2},
	publisher = {University of Hawaii Press},
	author = {Kreps, David M.},
	date = {1990},
}

@article{krehbiel_legislative_2014,
	title = {Legislative organization and ideal point bias},
	volume = {27},
	pages = {673--703},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Theoretical Politics},
	author = {Krehbiel, Keith and Peskowitz, Zachary},
	date = {2014},
}

@book{korpi_democratic_1983,
	title = {The democratic class struggle},
	publisher = {London: Routledge},
	author = {Korpi, Walter},
	date = {1983},
	keywords = {Historical Institutionalism, Welfare States},
}

@article{kish_procedure_2280,
	title = {A procedure for objective respondent election within the household},
	author = {{Kish}},
	date = {2280},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLAD} 7090, Readings, Users},
}

@book{king_designing_1994,
	title = {Designing social inquiry: Scientific inference in qualitative research},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press},
	author = {King, Gary and Keohane, Robert O and Verba, Sidney},
	date = {1994},
	keywords = {Causal Methodology, Qualitative},
}

@report{khan_no_2014,
	title = {No arab spring for algeria},
	institution = {Atlantic Council},
	type = {Issue brief},
	author = {Khan, Mohsin and Mezran, Karim},
	date = {2014-05},
	keywords = {Algeria, Arab Spring},
}

@article{koesel_putin_2012,
	title = {Putin, popular protests, and political trajectories in russia: A comparative perspective},
	volume = {28},
	pages = {403--423},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Post-Soviet Affairs},
	author = {Koesel, Karrie J and Bunce, Valerie J},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Nonviolent Social Movements, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{kitschelt_party_2007,
	title = {Party systems},
	pages = {522--554},
	journaltitle = {Handbook of Comparative Politics},
	author = {Kitschelt, Herbert},
	date = {2007},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@book{king_liberalization_2003,
	title = {Liberalization against democracy: The local politics of economic reform in tunisia},
	publisher = {Indiana University Press},
	author = {King, Stephen J.},
	date = {2003},
	keywords = {Political Economy, Rural, Tunisia},
}

@article{khamis_cyberactivism_2011,
	title = {Cyberactivism in the Egyptian revolution: How civic engagement and citizen journalism tilted the balance},
	volume = {13},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Arab Media and Society},
	author = {Khamis, Sahar and Vaughn, Katherine},
	date = {2011},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Middle East, Social Media Theory},
}

@book{kepel_jihad_2002,
	title = {Jihad: the trail of poltical Islam},
	publisher = {{IB} Tauris Publishers},
	author = {Kepel, Gilles},
	date = {2002},
	keywords = {Middle East, Owen},
}

@incollection{kazziha_arab_2010,
	title = {Arab democracy without a constituency},
	pages = {42--59},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	author = {Kazziha, Walid},
	editor = {Brown, Nathan and Shahin, Emad El-Din},
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}

@book{karsh_iran-iraq_2002,
	title = {The iran-iraq war: 1980-1988},
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	publisher = {Osprey publishing},
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	date = {2002},
	keywords = {Iran Iraq War, Owen},
}

@incollection{katznelson_intersections_2007,
	title = {Intersections between historical and rational choice institutionalism},
	pages = {1--26},
	booktitle = {Preferences and situations: Points of intersection between historical and rational choice institutionalism},
	publisher = {Russel Sage Foundation},
	author = {Katznelson, Ira and Weingast, Barry R.},
	editor = {Katznelson, Ira and Weingast, Barry R.},
	date = {2007},
	keywords = {Historical Institutionalism, Rational Choice},
}

@article{jungherr_stuttgarts_2013,
	title = {Stuttgart's black Thursday on twitter: mapping political protests with social media data},
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	author = {Jungherr, Andreas and Jürgens, Pascal},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Social Media Theory, Social Movement Theory},
}

@book{johnson_iran-iraq_2011,
	title = {The iran-iraq war},
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	keywords = {Iran Iraq War, Owen},
}

@report{jann_plotting_2013,
	title = {Plotting regression coefficients and other estimates in Stata},
	number = {1},
	institution = {University of Bern},
	type = {Working paper},
	author = {Jann, Ben},
	date = {2013-08},
	keywords = {Graphing, Stata, Stata – Graphing},
}

@article{jamal_anti-americanism_2015,
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	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Jamal, Amaney A. and Keohane, Robert O. and Romney, David and Tingley, Dustin},
	date = {2015},
	keywords = {Middle East, Topic Modeling, Twitter},
}

@article{jenkins_resource_1983,
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@book{jamal_empires_2012,
	title = {Of empires and citizens: Pro-american democracy or no democracy at all?},
	publisher = {Princeton: Princeton University Press},
	author = {Jamal, Amaney A},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, International Linkages, Middle East},
}

@book{jamal_barriers_2009,
	title = {Barriers to democracy: The other side of social capital in palestine and the arab world},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press},
	author = {Jamal, Amaney A},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society, Middle East},
}

@article{jamal_attitudes_2008,
	title = {Attitudes in the Arab world},
	volume = {19},
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	number = {1},
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	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Arab Political Ideology, Democracy and Civil Society, Middle East},
}

@article{clinton_statistical_2004,
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}

@book{iyengar_news_2010,
	title = {News that matters: Television and American opinion},
	publisher = {University of Chicago Press},
	author = {Iyengar, Shanto and Kinder, Donald R},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {Experiments},
}

@article{iversen_electoral_2006,
	title = {Electoral institutions and the politics of coalitions: Why some democracies redistribute more than others},
	volume = {100},
	pages = {165--181},
	number = {2},
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	author = {Iversen, Torben and Soskice, David},
	date = {2006},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@book{iversen_contested_1999,
	title = {Contested economic institutions: The politics of macroeconomics and wage bargaining in advanced democracies},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Iversen, Torben},
	date = {1999},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@incollection{isaac_movement_2012,
	title = {“Movement schools" and dialogical diffusion of nonviolent praxis: Nashville workshops in the southern civil rights movement},
	pages = {155--184},
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}

@book{inglehart_modernization_2005,
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}

@article{iyengar_experimental_1982,
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@article{imbens_better_2010,
	title = {Better {LATE} than nothing: Some comments on deaton (2009) and heckman and urzua (2009)},
	volume = {48},
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	author = {Imbens, Guido W.},
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	keywords = {Causal Inference},
}

@article{imai_statistical_2012,
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	volume = {56},
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	author = {Imai, Kosuke and Tingley, Dustin},
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	keywords = {Mixture Models, Statistical Methodology},
}

@article{miguel_control_2007,
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	volume = {74},
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	number = {4},
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	author = {Miguel, Gerard Padró I},
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	keywords = {Group Identity, {PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@article{imai_when_2019,
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	volume = {63},
	pages = {467--490},
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	author = {Imai, Kosuke and Kim, In Song},
	date = {2019},
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@article{imai_general_2010,
	title = {A general approach to causal mediation analysis},
	volume = {15},
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	author = {Imai, Kosuke and Keele, Luke and Tingley, Dustin},
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}

@book{huntington_third_1991,
	title = {The third wave: Democratization in the late twentieth century},
	publisher = {Oklahoma City, {OK}: Oklahoma University Press},
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	keywords = {Democratic Transitions},
}

@book{huntington_soldier_1957,
	title = {The soldier and the state: The Theory and Politics of Civil-military Relations},
	publisher = {Cambridge, {MA}: Harvard University Press},
	author = {Huntington, Samuel P.},
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	keywords = {Civil-military Relations},
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@book{huntington_political_1968,
	title = {Political order in changing societies},
	author = {Huntington, Samuel P.},
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	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Institutional Theory, Qualitative},
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@article{humphreys_mixing_2015,
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	volume = {109},
	pages = {653--673},
	number = {4},
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	author = {Humphreys, Macartan and Jacobs, Alan},
	date = {2015-03},
	keywords = {Bayesian process tracing, Process tracing},
}

@inproceedings{hu_et-lda_2012,
	title = {{ET}-{LDA}: Joint topic modeling for aligning events and their twitter feedback.},
	booktitle = {{AAAI}},
	author = {Hu, Yuheng and John, Ajita and Wang, Fei and Kambhampati, Subbarao},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Content Analysis, Social Media Theory},
}

@article{huber_politics_2006,
	title = {Politics, delegation and bureaucracy},
	volume = {7},
	pages = {256},
	journaltitle = {The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy},
	author = {Huber, John D and Shipan, Charles R},
	date = {2006},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@article{huber_bureaucratic_2004,
	title = {Bureaucratic capacity, delegation, and political reform},
	volume = {98},
	pages = {481--494},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Huber, John D and {McCarty}, Nolan},
	date = {2004},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@article{houle_inequality_2009,
	title = {Inequality and democracy},
	volume = {61},
	pages = {589--622},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Houle, Christian},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {Inequality and Transitions},
}

@report{holiday_improving_2008,
	title = {Improving cultural awareness in the {US} military},
	institution = {{DTIC} Document},
	author = {Holiday, Hershel L},
	date = {2008},
}

@article{haber_natural_2011,
	title = {Do natural resources fuel authoritarianis: A reappraisal of the resource curse},
	volume = {105},
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	number = {1},
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	date = {2011},
	keywords = {Autocratic Durability, {CPE}, Democratic Transitions, Oil Wealth, Time Series},
}

@book{hirschman_exit_1970,
	title = {Exit, voice and loyalty: Responses to decline in firms, organizations, and states},
	publisher = {Harvard University Press},
	author = {Hirschman, Albert O.},
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}

@article{honaker_what_2010,
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	author = {Honaker, James and King, Gary},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {Missing Data Imputation},
}

@article{holland_statistics_1986,
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@book{heydemann_middle_2013,
	title = {Middle east authoritarianisms: Governance, contestation and regime resilience in syria and iran},
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	author = {Heydemann, Steven and Leenders, Reinoud},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Arab Spring},
}

@article{herb_no_2005,
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	volume = {27},
	pages = {297--316},
	number = {3},
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	date = {2005},
	keywords = {Rentier State, Resource Curse},
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@book{herb_all_1999,
	title = {All in the family: absolutism, revolution, and democracy in Middle Eastern monarchies},
	publisher = {{SUNY} Press},
	author = {Herb, Michael},
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	keywords = {Middle East, Middle East – Regime Type, Rentier States},
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@incollection{henry_arab_2014,
	title = {The arab uprisings explained: New contentious politics in the middle east},
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}

@book{henry_globalization_2010,
	title = {Globalization and the politics of development in the middle east},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Henry, Clement Moore and Springborg, Robert},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {Middle East, Political Economy},
}

@incollection{henrich_overview_2004,
	title = {Overview and synthesis},
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	booktitle = {Foundations of human sociality: Economic experiments and ethnographic evidence from fifteen small-scale societies},
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	author = {Henrich, Joseph and Boyd, Robert and Bowles, Samuel and Camerer, Colin and Fehr, Ernst and Gintis, Herbert and {McElreath}, Richard},
	editor = {Henrich, Joseph and Boyd, Robert and Bowles, Samuel and Camerer, Colin and Fehr, Ernst and Gintis, Herbert},
	date = {2004},
	keywords = {Causal Methodology, Experiments},
}

@book{hendrickson_imperial_1992,
	location = {New York},
	title = {The imperial temptation : the new world order and America's purpose},
	isbn = {0-87609-118-4},
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	author = {Hendrickson, David C. and Tucker, Robert W.},
	date = {1992},
	keywords = {1985-1995, 1989-, 1991, Foreign relations, Owen, Persian Gulf War, United States, World politics},
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@unpublished{heersink_process_2015,
	title = {Process tracing as three-cornered fights},
	author = {Heersink, Boris and Poznansky, Michael},
	date = {2015-08},
	keywords = {Causal Graphs, Process Tracing},
}

@book{henry_mediterranean_1996,
	title = {The mediterranean debt crescent: Money and power in algeria, egypt, morocco, tunisia and turkey},
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	author = {Henry, Clement M.},
	date = {1996},
	keywords = {Middle East, Political Economy},
}

@article{heckman_comparing_2009,
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	author = {Heckman, James J. and Urzúa, Sergio},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {Causal Inference, Model-Based Inference, Structural Equations},
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@incollection{hausman_sympathy_2007,
	title = {Sympathy, commitment, and preference},
	booktitle = {Rationality and commitment},
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	date = {2007},
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@article{hassanpour_media_2014,
	title = {Media disruption and revolutionary unrest: Evidence from mubarak's quasi-experiment},
	volume = {31},
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	journaltitle = {Political Communication},
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	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Nonviolent Social Movements, Revolutions, Social Media Theory, Social Movement Theory},
}

@book{hardin_collective_1982,
	title = {Collective action},
	publisher = {Resources for the Future},
	author = {Hardin, Russell},
	date = {1982},
	keywords = {Game Theory and Formal Modeling, Social Movement Theory},
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@article{hall_political_1996,
	title = {Political science and the three new institutionalisms},
	volume = {{XLIV}},
	pages = {936--957},
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	keywords = {Historical Institutionalism},
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@article{hay_ideas_2011,
	title = {Ideas and the construction of interests},
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	journaltitle = {Ideas and Politics in Social Science Research},
	author = {Hay, Colin},
	date = {2011},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@article{hassine_economic_2015,
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	volume = {66},
	pages = {532--556},
	journaltitle = {World Development},
	author = {Hassine, Nadia Belhaj},
	date = {2015},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Inequality, Middle East, Political Economy},
}

@incollection{hall_introduction_2001,
	title = {An introduction to varities of capitalism},
	pages = {1--68},
	booktitle = {Varieties of capitalism: The institutional foundations of comparative advantage},
	publisher = {Oxford, {UK}: Oxford University Press},
	author = {Hall, Peter A. and Soskice, David},
	editor = {Hall, Peter A. and Soskice, David},
	date = {2001},
	keywords = {Historical Institutionalism, Varieties of Capitalism},
}

@article{hale_regime_2013,
	title = {Regime change cascades: What we have learned from the 1848 revolutions to the 2011 arab uprisings},
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	pages = {331--353},
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	author = {Hale, Henry E.},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Social Movement Theory},
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@article{hainmueller_validating_2015,
	title = {Validating vignette and conjoint survey experiments against real-world behavior},
	volume = {112},
	pages = {2395--2400},
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	date = {2015},
}

@article{hagopian_parties_2007,
	title = {Parties and voters in emerging democracies},
	journaltitle = {The Oxford Handbook of Comparative Politics. New York, {NY}: Oxford University Press Inc},
	author = {Hagopian, Frances},
	date = {2007},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@article{haggard_inequality_2012,
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@incollection{hall_historical_2010,
	title = {Historical institutionalism in rationalist and sociological perspective},
	pages = {204--223},
	booktitle = {Explaining institutional change: Ambiguity, agency and power},
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	author = {Hall, Peter A.},
	editor = {Mahoney, James and Thelen, Kathleen},
	date = {2010},
}

@incollection{hall_great_2002,
	title = {Great britain: The role of government and the distribution of social capital},
	pages = {21--57},
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	author = {Hall, Peter A.},
	editor = {Putnam, Robert D.},
	date = {2002},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society},
}

@article{hainmueller_causal_2014,
	title = {Causal inference in conjoint analysis: Understanding multidimensional choices via stated preference experiments},
	volume = {22},
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	date = {2014},
}

@article{habyarimana_why_2007,
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	date = {2007-11},
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@article{gurr_persistence_1974,
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@book{gurr_why_1970,
	title = {Why men rebel},
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@inproceedings{grzymala-busse_paradoxical_2015,
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	date = {2015},
	keywords = {Authoritarian Successor Parties},
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@article{wright_oil_2013,
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	date = {2013-10},
	keywords = {Autocratic Durability, {CPE}, Democratic Transitions, Oil, Time Series},
}

@unpublished{grimmer_are_2011,
	location = {Stanford University},
	title = {Are close elections random?},
	url = {https://web.stanford.edu/~jgrimmer/CEF.pdf},
	author = {Grimmer, Justin and Hersh, Eitan and Feinstein, Brian and Carpenter, Daniel},
	date = {2011-01},
	keywords = {Causal Inference, Elections, {RDD}},
}

@book{green_pathologies_1996,
	title = {Pathologies of rational choice theory: A critique of applications in political science},
	publisher = {New Haven, {CT}: Yale University Press},
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	date = {1996},
	keywords = {Game Theory, Perestroika},
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@incollection{green_reclaiming_2003,
	title = {Reclaiming the experimental tradition in political science},
	pages = {805--833},
	booktitle = {Political science: The state of the discipline},
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	editor = {Katznelson, Ira and Milner, Helen V.},
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@article{grun_flexmix_2008,
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@article{granovetter_threshold_1978,
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@article{gonzalez-bailon_assessing_2012,
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	author = {González-Bailón, Sandra and Wang, Ning and Rivero, Alejandro and Borge-Holthoefer, Javier and Moreno, Yamir},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Social Media Theory},
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@article{gonzalez-bailon_emotional_2010,
	title = {Emotional reactions and the pulse of public opinion: Measuring the impact of political events on the sentiment of online discussions},
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	author = {Gonzalez-Bailon, Sandra and Banchs, Rafael E and Kaltenbrunner, Andreas},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {Social Media Theory},
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@book{goodwin_no_2001,
	title = {No other way out: States and revolutionary movements, 1945-1991},
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	keywords = {Revolutions, State Formation},
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@article{gonzalez-bailon_broadcasters_2013,
	title = {Broadcasters and hidden influentials in online protest diffusion},
	volume = {57},
	pages = {943--965},
	number = {7},
	journaltitle = {American Behavioral Scientist},
	author = {González-Bailón, Sandra and Borge-Holthoefer, Javier and Moreno, Yamir},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Social Media Theory, Social Movement Theory},
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@article{gonzalez-bailon_dynamics_2011,
	title = {The dynamics of protest recruitment through an online network},
	volume = {1},
	journaltitle = {Scientific reports},
	author = {González-Bailón, Sandra and Borge-Holthoefer, Javier and Rivero, Alejandro and Moreno, Yamir},
	date = {2011},
	keywords = {Network Analysis, Social Media Theory, Social Movement Theory},
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@article{goldstone_global_2010,
	title = {A global model for forecasting political instability},
	volume = {54},
	pages = {190--208},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Goldstone, Jack A. and Bates, Robert H. and Epstein, David L. and Gurr, Ted Robert and Lustik, Michael B. and Marshall, Monty G. and Ulfelder, Jay and Woodward, Mark},
	date = {2010-01},
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@article{goldstone_toward_2001,
	title = {Toward a fourth generation of revolutionary theory},
	volume = {4},
	pages = {139--187},
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	author = {Goldstone, Jack},
	date = {2001},
	keywords = {Social Movement Theory},
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@book{golden_heroic_1996,
	title = {Heroic defeats: The politics of job loss},
	publisher = {Cambridge, {UK}: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Golden, Miriam},
	date = {1996},
	keywords = {Formal Theory, Qualitative Methods},
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@inproceedings{goel_structure_2012,
	title = {The structure of online diffusion networks},
	pages = {623--638},
	booktitle = {Proceedings of the 13th {ACM} conference on electronic commerce},
	author = {Goel, Sharad and Watts, Duncan J and Goldstein, Daniel G},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Social Media Theory},
}

@incollection{gohar_mapping_2008,
	title = {Mapping participation in egypt},
	pages = {171--191},
	booktitle = {Political participation in the middle east},
	publisher = {Lynne Rienner Publishes: Boulder, Co},
	author = {Gohar, Nihad},
	editor = {Lust-Okar, Ellen and Zerhouni, Saloua},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Egypt, Elections, Middle East},
}

@article{glaeser_political_2005,
	title = {The political economy of hatred},
	volume = {120},
	pages = {45--86},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	author = {Glaeser, Edward L},
	date = {2005},
	keywords = {Group Identity, {PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@article{glaeser_curley_2005,
	title = {The curley effect: The economics of shaping the electorate},
	volume = {21},
	pages = {1--19},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of Law, Economics and Organization},
	author = {Glaeser, Edward L. and Shleifer, Andrei},
	date = {2005},
	keywords = {{CPE}, Elections, Migration},
}

@unpublished{gingerich_when_2014,
	title = {When to protect? Using the crosswise model to integrate protected and direct response in surveys of sensitive behavior},
	author = {Gingerich, Daniel W. and Corbacho, Ana and Oliveros, Virginia and Ruiz-Vega, Mauricio},
	date = {2014-07-14},
}

@article{gingerich_brokered_2014,
	title = {Brokered politics in brazil: An empirical analysis},
	pages = {1--32},
	number = {9},
	journaltitle = {Quarterly Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Gingerich, Daniel W.},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Corruption, Differences-in-Differences, Elections, Propensity Scores},
}

@article{gingerich_corruption_2009,
	title = {Corruption and political decay: Evidence from bolivia},
	pages = {1--34},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Quarterly Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Gingerich, Daniel W.},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {Causal Methodology, Matching},
}

@incollection{gil-white_ultimatum_2004,
	title = {Ultimatum game with an ethnicity manipulation},
	pages = {260--303},
	booktitle = {Foundations of human sociality: Economic experiments and ethnographic evidence from fifteen small-scale societies},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Gil-White, Francisco J.},
	editor = {Henrich, Joseph and Boyd, Robert and Bowles, Samuel and Camerer, Colin and Fehr, Ernst and Gintis, Herbert},
	date = {2004},
}

@unpublished{gingerich_can_2014,
	title = {Can institutions cure clientelism?: Assessing the impact of the australian ballot on brazil},
	author = {Gingerich, Daniel W.},
	date = {2014-04},
	keywords = {Differences-in-Differences, Elections},
}

@book{gingerich_political_2013,
	title = {Political institutions and party-directed corruption in south america: Stealing for the team},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Gingerich, Daniel W},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@article{gibson_coalitions_2013,
	title = {Coalitions not conflicts: Ethnicity, political institutions, and expenditure in africa},
	volume = {45},
	pages = {273--290},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Politics},
	author = {Gibson, Clark C and Hoffman, Barak D},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Elections, Ethnicity},
}

@book{gerring_social_2012,
	edition = {2},
	title = {Social science methodology: A unified framework},
	publisher = {New York: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Gerring, John},
	date = {2012},
}

@article{gerber_effects_2000,
	title = {The effects of canvassing, telephone calls, and direct mail on voter turnout: A field experiment},
	volume = {94},
	pages = {653--663},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Gerber, Alan S. and Green, Donald P.},
	date = {2000},
	keywords = {Causal Methodology, Experiments},
}

@article{george_case_1985,
	title = {Case studies and theories of organizational decision-making},
	volume = {2},
	pages = {21--58},
	journaltitle = {Advances in Information Processing in Organizations},
	author = {George, Alexander L. and {McKeown}, Timothy J.},
	date = {1985},
	keywords = {Process-tracing, Qualitative Methodology},
}

@article{gerring_experimental_2007,
	title = {An experimental template for case study research},
	pages = {688--701},
	number = {51},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Gerring, John and {McDermott}, R},
	date = {2007},
	keywords = {Causal Methodology, Experiments, Qualitative},
}

@book{gehlbach_formal_2013,
	title = {Formal models of domestic politics},
	publisher = {University of Wisconsin-Madison},
	author = {Gehlbach, Scott},
	date = {2013},
}

@unpublished{geddes_why_2006,
	title = {Why parties and elections in authoritarian regimes},
	author = {Geddes, Barbara},
	date = {2006},
	keywords = {Authoritarian Durability},
}

@article{geddes_what_1999,
	title = {What do we know about democratization after twenty years?},
	volume = {2},
	pages = {115--144},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Geddes, Barbara},
	date = {1999},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, {PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@book{gandhi_political_2008,
	title = {Political institutions under dictatorships},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Gandhi, Jennifer},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Authoritarian Durability},
}

@article{geddes_game_1991,
	title = {A game theoretic model of reform in latin american democracies},
	pages = {371--392},
	journaltitle = {The American Political Science Review},
	author = {Geddes, Barbara},
	date = {1991},
}

@article{gailmard_slackers_2007,
	title = {Slackers and zealots: Civil service, policy discretion, and bureaucratic expertise},
	volume = {51},
	pages = {873--889},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Gailmard, Sean and Patty, John W},
	date = {2007},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@book{fudenberg_game_1991,
	title = {Game theory},
	publisher = {Massachusetts: The {MIT} Press},
	author = {Fudenberg, Drew and Tirole, Jean},
	date = {1991},
	keywords = {Game Theory},
}

@incollection{friedman_methodology_1953,
	title = {The methodology of positive economics},
	pages = {508--528},
	booktitle = {Readings in the philosophy of science},
	publisher = {New York: Macmillan},
	author = {Friedman, Milton},
	editor = {Brodbeck, May},
	date = {1953},
	keywords = {Causal Methodology, Game Theory and Formal Modeling},
}

@book{frieden_debt_1991,
	title = {Debt, development and democracy},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press},
	author = {Frieden, Jeffrey A.},
	date = {1991},
	keywords = {Latin America, Political Economy},
}

@article{freeman_economic_2012,
	title = {The economic origins of democracy reconsidered},
	volume = {106},
	pages = {58--80},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Freeman, John R and Quinn, Dennis P},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Inequality and Transitions, {PLCP} 7000},
}

@incollection{freedman_types_2008,
	title = {On types of scientific inquiry: The role of qualitative reasoning},
	pages = {300--318},
	booktitle = {The Oxford handbook of political methodology},
	publisher = {Oxford: Oxford University Press},
	author = {Freedman, David A},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {{PLAD} 7090},
}

@article{foley_paradox_1996,
	title = {The paradox of civil society},
	volume = {7},
	pages = {38--52},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Journal of democracy},
	author = {Foley, Michael W and Edwards, Bob},
	date = {1996},
}

@book{feaver_armed_2003,
	title = {Armed servants: Agency, oversight and civil-military relations},
	publisher = {Cambridge, {MA}: Harvard University Press},
	author = {Feaver, Peter},
	date = {2003},
	keywords = {Civil-military Relations},
}

@article{fisman_estimating_2001,
	title = {Estimating the value of political connections},
	volume = {91},
	pages = {1095--1102},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {The American Economic Review},
	author = {Fisman, Raymond},
	date = {2001},
	keywords = {Firms, Political Connectedness},
}

@article{ferejohn_incumbent_1986,
	title = {Incumbent performance and electoral control},
	volume = {50},
	pages = {5--25},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Public choice},
	author = {Ferejohn, John},
	date = {1986},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@article{feaver_civil-military_1999,
	title = {Civil-military relations},
	volume = {2},
	pages = {211--241},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science},
	author = {Feaver, Peter D.},
	date = {1999},
	keywords = {Civil-military Relations},
}

@article{fearon_ethnicity_2003,
	title = {Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war},
	volume = {97},
	pages = {75--90},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American political science review},
	author = {Fearon, James D and Laitin, David D},
	date = {2003},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@incollection{farah_political_2013,
	title = {The political economy of egypt's revolution},
	pages = {47--66},
	booktitle = {Egypt's tahrir revolution},
	publisher = {Lynne Rienner Publishers: Boulder, {CO}},
	author = {Farah, Nadia Ramsis},
	editor = {Tschirgi, Dan and Kazziha, Walid and {McMahon}, Sean F.},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Egypt, Middle East, Political Economy},
}

@article{fairfield_explicit_2017,
	title = {Explicit bayesian analysis for process tracing: Guidelines, opportunities and caveats},
	volume = {25},
	pages = {363--380},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Fairfield, Tasha and Charman, Andrew},
	date = {2017-08},
	keywords = {Bayesian Process-Tracing},
}

@article{epstein_democratic_2006,
	title = {Democratic transitions},
	volume = {50},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Epstein, David L. and Bates, Robert and Goldstone, Jack and Kristensen, Ida and O'Halloran, Sharyn},
	date = {2006-07},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Inequality and Transitions},
}

@incollection{fearon_electoral_1999,
	title = {Electoral accountability and the control of politicians: selecting good types versus sanctioning poor performance},
	volume = {55},
	pages = {61},
	booktitle = {Democracy, accountability, and representation},
	publisher = {New York: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Fearon, James D},
	date = {1999},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@article{fearon_explaining_1996,
	title = {Explaining interethnic cooperation},
	pages = {715--735},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Fearon, James D and Laitin, David D},
	date = {1996},
	keywords = {Group Identity, {PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@book{evans_embedded_1995,
	title = {Embedded autonomy: States and industrial transformation},
	author = {Evans, Peter},
	date = {1995},
}

@incollection{elster_nature_1994,
	title = {The nature and scope of rational-choice explanation},
	pages = {311--322},
	booktitle = {Readings in the philosophy of social science},
	publisher = {Massachusetts Institute of Technology: Boston, {MA}},
	author = {Elster, Jon},
	editor = {Martin, Michael and {McIntyre}, Lee C.},
	date = {1994},
	keywords = {Methodology, Rational Choice},
}

@article{egorov_dictators_2011,
	title = {Dictators and their viziers: Endogenizing the loyalty-competence trade-off},
	volume = {9},
	pages = {903--930},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {Journal of the European Economic Association},
	author = {Egorov, Georgy and Sonin, Konstantin},
	date = {2011},
	keywords = {Civil-Military Relations, Game Theory},
}

@article{michalopoulos_pre-colonial_2013,
	title = {Pre-colonial ethnic institutions and contemporary african development},
	volume = {81},
	pages = {113--152},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Econometrica},
	author = {Michalopoulos, Stelios and Papaioannou, Elias},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Africa, Ethnicity, Institutional Theory, State Capacity, development, ethnicities, institutions},
}

@incollection{epstein_decision_1999,
	title = {The decision to delegate},
	pages = {53--86},
	booktitle = {Delegating powers: A transaction cost approach to policymaking under separate powers},
	publisher = {Cambridge Univ Press},
	author = {Epstein, D and O'Halloran, S.},
	date = {1999},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@book{elster_explaining_2007,
	title = {Explaining social behavior: More nuts and bolts for the social sciences},
	publisher = {Cambridge Univ Press},
	author = {Elster, Jon},
	date = {2007},
}

@article{easton_tradition_1957,
	title = {Tradition and behavioral research in american political science},
	volume = {2},
	pages = {110--115},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Administrative Science Quarterly},
	author = {Easton, David},
	date = {1957},
	keywords = {Behavioral Political Science},
}

@article{earle_productivity_2015,
	title = {The productivity consequences of political turnover: Firm-level evidence from ukraine's orange revolution},
	volume = {59},
	pages = {708--723},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Earle, John S. and Gehlbach, Scott},
	date = {2015},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Political Economy},
}

@article{dunning_ethnic_2013,
	title = {Ethnic quotas and political mobilization: Caste, parties, and distribution in indian village councils},
	volume = {107},
	pages = {35--56},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Dunning, Thad and Nilekani, Janhavi},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@article{dunning_persuasion_2007,
	title = {Persuasion vs. mobilization},
	journaltitle = {Unpublished Manuscript, Yale University},
	author = {Dunning, Thad and Stokes, Susan},
	date = {2007},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@incollection{dunne_ups_2008,
	title = {The ups and downs of political reform in egypt},
	pages = {17--43},
	booktitle = {Beyond the facade: Political reform in the arab world},
	publisher = {Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Washington, {DC}},
	author = {Dunne, Michelle and Hamzawy, Amr},
	editor = {Ottaway, Marina and Chouair-Vizoso, Julia},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Egypt, Elections, Middle East},
}

@book{dunning_natural_2012,
	title = {Natural experiments in the social sciences: A design-based approach},
	publisher = {Cambridge, {UK}: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Dunning, Thad},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Causal Inference},
}

@article{dunning_design-based_2010,
	title = {Design-based inference: Beyond the pitfalls of regression analysis?},
	pages = {273--311},
	journaltitle = {Rethinking social inquiry: Diverse tools, shared standards. 2nd ed., ed. {HE} Brady and D. Collier},
	author = {Dunning, Thad},
	date = {2010},
}

@book{dunning_crude_2008,
	title = {Crude democracy: Natural resource wealth and political regimes},
	publisher = {Cambridge, {UK}: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Dunning, Thad},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Resource Curse},
}

@article{dixit_determinants_1996,
	title = {The determinants of success of special interests in redistributive politics},
	volume = {58},
	pages = {1132--1155},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {the Journal of Politics},
	author = {Dixit, Avinash and Londregan, John},
	date = {1996},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@book{dillman_state_2000,
	title = {State and private sector in algeria: The politics of rent-seeking and failed development},
	publisher = {Westview Press},
	author = {Dillman, Bradford},
	date = {2000},
	keywords = {Algeria, Political Economy},
}

@article{dreher_has_2008,
	title = {Has globalization increased inequality?},
	volume = {16},
	pages = {516--536},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Review of International Economics},
	author = {Dreher, Axel and Gaston, Noel},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Globalization, Inequality},
}

@book{downs_economic_1957,
	title = {An economic theory of democracy},
	publisher = {New York},
	author = {Downs, Anthony},
	date = {1957},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@article{do_what_2008,
	title = {What is the expectation maximization algorithm?},
	volume = {26},
	pages = {897--899},
	journaltitle = {Nature Biotechnology},
	author = {Do, Chuong B and Batzoglou, Serafim},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {{EM} Algorithm},
}

@article{dillman_international_2002,
	title = {International markets and economic reforms in north africa: What impact on democratization?},
	volume = {9},
	pages = {63--86},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Democratization},
	author = {Dillman, Bradford},
	date = {2002},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Middle East, Political Economy},
}

@article{diermeier_institutionalism_2003,
	title = {Institutionalism as a methodology},
	volume = {15},
	pages = {123--144},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of theoretical politics},
	author = {Diermeier, Daniel and Krehbiel, Keith},
	date = {2003},
	keywords = {Rational Choice},
}

@article{diamond_why_2010,
	title = {Why are there no arab democracies?},
	volume = {21},
	pages = {93--112},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Democracy},
	author = {Diamond, Larry},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Middle East},
}

@book{desch_civilian_1999,
	title = {Civilian control of the military: The changing security environment},
	publisher = {Baltimore, {MD}: Johns Hopkins University Press},
	author = {Desch, Michael C.},
	date = {1999},
	keywords = {Civil-Military Relations},
}

@article{deininger_new_1996,
	title = {A new dataset measuring income inequality},
	volume = {10},
	pages = {565--591},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {The World Bank Economic Review},
	author = {Deininger, Klaus W. and Squire, Lyn},
	date = {1996},
	keywords = {Income Inequality, Inequality and Transitions},
}

@book{de_mesquita_dictators_2011,
	title = {The dictator's handbook: why bad behavior is almost always good politics},
	publisher = {New York: Public Affairs},
	author = {de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno and Smith, Alastair},
	date = {2011},
}

@book{de_mesquita_logic_2003,
	title = {The logic of political survival},
	publisher = {{MIT} Press},
	author = {de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno and Smith, Alastair and Siverson, Randolph M. and Morrow, James D.},
	date = {2003},
	keywords = {Selectorate theory},
}

@article{deaton_instruments_2010,
	title = {Instruments, randomization, and learning about development},
	volume = {48},
	pages = {424--455},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Economic Literature},
	author = {Deaton, Angus},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {Causal Inference, Model-Based Inference},
}

@article{dal_bo_plata_2006,
	title = {“Plata o plomo?": Bribe and punishment in a theory of political influencea},
	volume = {100},
	pages = {41--53},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Dal Bó, Ernesto and Dal Bó, Pedro and Di Tella, Rafael},
	date = {2006},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@book{dahl_poliarchy_1971,
	title = {Poliarchy: participation and opposition},
	volume = {54},
	publisher = {Yale University Press},
	author = {Dahl, Robert A},
	date = {1971},
}

@book{cox_making_1997,
	title = {Making votes count},
	publisher = {Cambridge, {UK}: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Cox, Gary W.},
	date = {1997},
	keywords = {Electoral Systems, Formal Models},
}

@article{de_mesquita_regime_2010,
	title = {Regime change and revolutionary entrepreneurs},
	volume = {104},
	pages = {446--466},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {De Mesquita, Ethan Bueno},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{de_mesquita_political_2009,
	title = {Political survival and endogenous institutional change},
	volume = {42},
	pages = {167--197},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {De Mesquita, Bruce Bueno and Smith, Alastair},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions},
}

@article{wood_politics_2003,
	title = {The politics of problem definition: applying and testing threshold models},
	volume = {47},
	pages = {640--653},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Wood, Dan and Doan, Alesha},
	date = {2003},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Signaling Games, Social Movement Theory},
}

@book{dabashi_arab_2012,
	title = {The arab spring: The end of postcolonialism},
	publisher = {Zed Books},
	author = {Dabashi, Hamid},
	date = {2012},
}

@article{cusack_economic_2007,
	title = {Economic interests and the origins of electoral systems},
	volume = {101},
	pages = {373--391},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Cusack, Thomas R and Iversen, Torben and Soskice, David},
	date = {2007},
	keywords = {Rational Choice},
}

@book{coppedge_democratization_2012,
	title = {Democratization and research methods},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Coppedge, Michael},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Causal Methodology, Democratic Transitions},
}

@book{cordesman_lessons_1990,
	title = {The lessons of modern war},
	publisher = {Westview Press},
	author = {Cordesman, Anthony H. and Wagner, Abraham R.},
	date = {1990},
	keywords = {Iran Iraq War, Owen},
}

@book{cook_ruling_2007,
	title = {Ruling but not governing: The military and political development in egypt, algeria and turkey},
	publisher = {John Hopkins University Press: Baltimore, {MD}},
	author = {Cook, Steven A.},
	date = {2007},
}

@book{converse_survey_1986,
	title = {Survey questions: Handcrafting the standardized questionnaire},
	volume = {63},
	publisher = {Sage},
	author = {Converse, Jean M and Presser, Stanley},
	date = {1986},
	keywords = {{PLAD} 7090},
}

@incollection{collier_toward_2010,
	title = {Toward an alternative view of methodology: Sources of leverage in causal inference},
	booktitle = {Rethinking social inquiry: Diverse tools, shared standards},
	publisher = {Lanham, {MD}: Rowman \& Littlefield},
	author = {Collier, David and Brady, Henry E. and Seawright, Jason},
	editor = {Brady, Henry E. and Collier, David},
	date = {2010},
}

@book{collier_shaping_1991,
	title = {Shaping the political arena},
	publisher = {Princeton, {NJ}: Princeton University Press},
	author = {Collier, Ruth Berins and Collier, David},
	date = {1991},
	keywords = {Critical Junctures, Labor Unions, {PLCP} 7000, Qualitative Methodology},
}

@article{colgan_domestic_2013,
	title = {Domestic revolutionary leaders and international conflict},
	volume = {65},
	pages = {656--690},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {World Politics},
	author = {Colgan, Jeff D},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Civil War, Int'l Env and Transitions, Revolutions},
}

@article{coleman_social_1988,
	title = {Social capital in the creation of human capital},
	pages = {S95--S120},
	journaltitle = {American journal of sociology},
	author = {Coleman, James S},
	date = {1988},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society},
}

@book{cleveland_history_2013,
	edition = {5},
	title = {A history of the modern middle east},
	publisher = {Westview Press: Boulder, {CO}},
	author = {Cleveland, William L. and Bunton, Martin},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {History, Middle East},
}

@article{clarke_modernizing_2007,
	title = {Modernizing political science: A model-based approach},
	volume = {5},
	pages = {741--753},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Perspectives on Politics},
	author = {Clarke, Kevin A. and Primo, David M.},
	date = {2007-12},
}

@article{civicus_civicus_2013,
	title = {The civicus 2013 enabling environment index},
	author = {{Civicus}},
	date = {2013},
}

@article{chwieroth_how_2010,
	title = {How do crises lead to change? Liberalizing capital controls in the early years of new order indonesia},
	volume = {62},
	pages = {496--527},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {World politics},
	author = {Chwieroth, Jeffrey M},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@article{chwe_communication_2000,
	title = {Communication and coordination in social networks},
	volume = {67},
	pages = {1--16},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Review of Economic Studies},
	author = {Chwe, Michael Suk-Young},
	date = {2000},
	keywords = {Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{chinn_what_2006,
	title = {What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions and interactions},
	volume = {81},
	pages = {163--192},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Development Economics},
	author = {Chinn, Menzie D. and Ito, Hiro},
	date = {2006},
	keywords = {Capital Controls, Globalization},
}

@report{chin_capital_2002,
	title = {Capital account liberalization, institutions and financial development: Cross-country evidence},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	type = {Working paper},
	author = {Chin, Menzie D. and Ito, Hiro},
	date = {2002},
	keywords = {Political Economy},
}

@article{cheibub_democracy_2010,
	title = {Democracy and dictatorship revisited},
	pages = {67--101},
	number = {143},
	journaltitle = {Public Choice},
	author = {Cheibub, José Antonio and Ghandhi, Jennifer and Vreeland, James Raymond},
	date = {2010},
}

@book{cheibub_presidentialism_2007,
	title = {Presidentialism, parliamentarism, and democracy},
	publisher = {New York: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Cheibub, José Antonio},
	date = {2007},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Elections, Institutional Theory},
}

@article{chandra_what_2006,
	title = {What is ethnic identity and does it matter?},
	volume = {9},
	pages = {397--424},
	journaltitle = {Annual Review of Political Science, Vol 13},
	shortjournal = {Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci.},
	author = {Chandra, Kanchan},
	date = {2006},
	keywords = {Group Identity, {PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@article{cavatorta_end_2012,
	title = {The end of authoritrarian rule and the mythology of tunisia under ben ali},
	volume = {17},
	pages = {179--195},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Mediterranean Politics},
	author = {Cavatorta, Francesco and Haugbølle, Rikke Hostrup},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Tunisia},
}

@article{caughey_substance_2016,
	title = {Substance and change in congressional ideology: {NOMINATE} and its alternatives},
	volume = {30},
	pages = {128--146},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Studies in American Political Development},
	author = {Caughey, Devin and Schickler, Eric},
	date = {2016},
}

@book{cavatorta_civil_2012,
	title = {Civil society activism under authoritarian rule: A comparative perspective},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	author = {Cavatorta, Francesco},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Democracy and Civil Society, Middle East},
}

@book{cavatorta_civil_2010,
	title = {Civil society and democratization in the arab world: The dynamics of activism},
	publisher = {Taylor \& Francis {US}},
	author = {Cavatorta, Francesco and Durac, Vincent},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {Democracy and Civil Society, Democratic Transitions, Middle East},
}

@article{capoccia_historical_2010,
	title = {The historical turn in democratization studies: A new research agenda for europe and beyond},
	volume = {43},
	pages = {931--968},
	number = {8},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Capoccia, Giovanni and Ziblatt, Daniel},
	date = {2010},
}

@article{campante_why_2012,
	title = {Why was the Arab world poised for revolution? Schooling, economic opportunities, and the Arab Spring},
	pages = {167--187},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of Economic Perspectives},
	author = {Campante, Filipe R and Chor, Davin},
	date = {2012},
}

@book{cammett_political_2013,
	title = {The political economy of the arab uprisings},
	publisher = {Boulder, {CO}: Westview Press},
	author = {Cammett, Melani and Diwan, Ishac},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Middle East, Rentier States},
}

@article{carroll_comparing_2009,
	title = {Comparing {NOMINATE} and {IDEAL}: Points of difference and monte carlo tests},
	volume = {34},
	pages = {555--591},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Legislative Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Carroll, Royce and Lewis, Jeffrey B. and Lo, James and Poole, Keith T. and Rosenthal, Howard L.},
	date = {2009},
}

@book{capoccia_defending_2005,
	title = {Defending democracy: reactions to extremism in interwar Europe},
	publisher = {John Hopkins University Press},
	author = {Capoccia, Giovanni},
	date = {2005},
	keywords = {Causal Methodology, Democratic Transitions, Qualitative Methods},
}

@book{cammett_political_2015,
	title = {A political economy of the middle east},
	publisher = {Westview Press},
	author = {Cammett, Melani and Diwan, Ishac and Richards, Alan and Waterbury, John},
	date = {2015},
	keywords = {{MIddle} East, Political Economy},
}

@incollection{brown_introduction_2010,
	title = {Introduction},
	pages = {1--9},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	author = {Brown, N. J. and Shahin, E.},
	editor = {Brown, Nathan and Shahin, Emad El-Din},
	date = {2010},
}

@book{cammett_globalization_2007,
	title = {Globalization and business politics in north africa: A comparative perspective},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Cammett, Melani},
	date = {2007},
	keywords = {Political Economy of the Middle east},
}

@book{cammaerts_mediation_2013,
	title = {Mediation and protest movements},
	publisher = {Intellect Books},
	author = {Cammaerts, Bart and Mattoni, Alice and {McCurdy}, Patrick},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Content Analysis, Nonviolent Social Movements, Social Media Theory, Social Movement Theory},
}

@incollection{buchanan_rent_1980,
	title = {Rent seeking and profit seeking},
	volume = {3},
	pages = {15},
	booktitle = {Toward a theory of the rent-seeking society},
	publisher = {Texas A\&M University Press College Station, {TX}},
	author = {Buchanan, James M},
	date = {1980},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@book{brynen_beyond_2013,
	title = {Beyond the arab spring: Authoritarianism \& democratization in the arab world},
	publisher = {Lynne Riener Publishers},
	author = {Brynen, Rex and Moore, Pete W. and Salloukh, Bassel F. and Zahar, Marie-Joelle},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Middle East},
}

@book{brownlee_democracy_2012,
	title = {Democracy prevention: the politics of the {US}-Egyptian alliance},
	publisher = {Cambridge: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Brownlee, Jason},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {International Linkages},
}

@book{brownlee_authoritarianism_2007,
	title = {Authoritarianism in an age of democratization},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Brownlee, Jason},
	date = {2007},
	keywords = {Authoritarian Durability},
}

@incollection{brown_democratization_2014,
	title = {Democratization and authoritarianism in the arab world},
	pages = {263--276},
	publisher = {John Hopkins University Press},
	author = {Brown, Nathan},
	editor = {Diamond, Larry and Plattner, Marc F.},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Egypt},
}

@book{brown_struggle_2009,
	title = {The struggle over democracy in the Middle East: regional politics and external policies},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	author = {Brown, Nathan J and Shahin, Emad},
	date = {2009},
}

@article{brody-barre_impact_2013,
	title = {The impact of political parties and coalition building on tunisia's democratic future},
	volume = {18},
	pages = {211--230},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of North African Studies},
	author = {Brody-Barre, Andrea G.},
	date = {2013},
}

@book{brownlee_arab_2015,
	title = {The arab spring: Pathways of repression and reform},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Brownlee, Jason and Masoud, Tarek and Reynolds, Andrew},
	date = {2015},
	keywords = {Arab Spring},
}

@article{brownlee_portents_2009,
	title = {Portents of pluralism: How hybrid regimes affect democratic transitions},
	volume = {53},
	pages = {515--532},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Brownlee, Jason},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {Competitive Authoritarianism, Democratic Transitions},
}

@incollection{brown_new_2010,
	title = {New wine in old bottles?},
	pages = {13--28},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	author = {Brown, N. J. and Hawthorne, A.},
	editor = {Brown, Nathan and Shahin, Emad El-Din},
	date = {2010},
}

@incollection{brennan_grammar_2007,
	title = {The grammar of rationality},
	pages = {105--123},
	booktitle = {Rationality and commitment},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Brennan, Geoffrey},
	editor = {Peter, Fabienne and Schmid, Hans Bernhard},
	date = {2007},
}

@article{box-steffensmeier_introduction_2016,
	title = {Introduction to symposium on time series error correction methods in political science},
	volume = {24},
	pages = {1--2},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Box-Steffensmeier, Janet and Helgason, Agnar Freyr},
	date = {2016},
}

@book{bowles_cooperative_2011,
	title = {A cooperative species: Human reciprocity and its evolution},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press},
	author = {Bowles, Samuel and Gintis, Herbert},
	date = {2011},
	keywords = {Game Theory and Formal Modeling, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{boucoyannis_no_2015,
	title = {No representation without taxation: The coercive origins of consent and constitutionalism},
	journaltitle = {Politics and Society},
	author = {Boucoyannis, Deborah},
	date = {2015},
}

@article{brauninger_modeling_2016,
	title = {Modeling preferences using roll call votes in parliamentary systems},
	volume = {24},
	pages = {189--210},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Bräuninger, Thomas and Müller, Jochen and Stecker, Christian},
	date = {2016},
}

@article{braun_individual_1995,
	title = {Individual thresholds and social diffusion},
	volume = {7},
	pages = {167--182},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Rationality and Society},
	author = {Braun, Norman},
	date = {1995},
	keywords = {Game Theory and Formal Modeling, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{brandt_real_2011,
	title = {Real time, time series forecasting of inter-and intra-state political conflict},
	volume = {28},
	pages = {41--64},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Conflict Management and Peace Science},
	author = {Brandt, Patrick T and Freeman, John R and Schrodt, Philip A},
	date = {2011},
}

@article{brady_causation_2008,
	title = {Causation and explanation in social science},
	pages = {217--270},
	journaltitle = {The Oxford handbook of political methodology},
	author = {Brady, Henry E},
	date = {2008},
}

@article{boubekeur_rolling_2013,
	title = {Rolling either way? Algerian entrepeneurs as both agents of change and means of preservation of the system},
	volume = {18},
	pages = {469--481},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Journal of North African Studies},
	author = {Boubekeur, Amel},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Algeria, Business},
}

@article{bonica_mapping_2014,
	title = {Mapping the ideological marketplace},
	volume = {58},
	pages = {367--386},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Bonica, Adam},
	date = {2014},
}

@article{boix_complete_2013,
	title = {A complete data set of political regimes, 1800-2007},
	volume = {46},
	issn = {0010-4140},
	pages = {1523--1554},
	number = {12},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Boix, Carles and Miller, M. and Rosato, S.},
	date = {2013},
}

@book{boix_democracy_2003,
	title = {Democracy and redistribution},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Boix, Carles},
	date = {2003},
}

@article{boix_setting_1999,
	title = {Setting the rules of the game: The choice of electoral systems in advanced democracies},
	pages = {609--624},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Boix, Carles},
	date = {1999},
	keywords = {Rational Choice},
}

@article{bonacich_eigenvector-like_2001,
	title = {Eigenvector-like measures of centrality for asymmetric relations},
	volume = {23},
	pages = {191--201},
	journaltitle = {Social Networks},
	author = {Bonacich, Phillip and Lloyd, Paulette},
	date = {2001},
	keywords = {Network, Process Tracing},
}

@article{boix_democracy_2011,
	title = {Democracy, development, and the international system},
	volume = {105},
	pages = {809--828},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Boix, Carles},
	date = {2011},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Inequality and Transitions, Int'l Env and Transitions},
}

@article{boix_endogenous_2003,
	title = {Endogenous democratization},
	volume = {55},
	pages = {517--549},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {World politics},
	author = {Boix, Carles and Stokes, Susan Carol},
	date = {2003},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Inequality and Transitions},
}

@article{blyth_ideas_2010,
	title = {Ideas, uncertainty, and evolution},
	pages = {83--101},
	journaltitle = {Ideas and Politics in Social Science Research},
	author = {Blyth, Mark},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@book{blaydes_elections_2011,
	title = {Elections and distributive politics in mubarak's egypt},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Blaydes, Lisa},
	date = {2011},
	keywords = {Authoritarian Institutions, Egypt, Elections},
}

@article{bikhchandani_learning_1998,
	title = {Learning from the behavior of others: Conformity, fads, and informational cascades},
	volume = {12},
	pages = {151--170},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of Economic Perspectives},
	author = {Bikhchandani, Sushil and Hirshleifer, David and Welch, Ivo},
	date = {1998},
	keywords = {Signaling Games},
}

@article{blei_latent_2003,
	title = {Latent dirichlet allocation},
	volume = {3},
	pages = {993--1022},
	journaltitle = {the Journal of machine Learning research},
	author = {Blei, David M and Ng, Andrew Y and Jordan, Michael I},
	date = {2003},
	keywords = {Content Analysis},
}

@book{binder_preface_2008,
	title = {Preface},
	publisher = {New York, {NY}: Oxford University Press},
	author = {Binder, Sarah A. and Rhodes, R. A. W. and Rockman, Bert A.},
	editor = {Binder, Sarah A. and Rhodes, R. A. W. and Rockman, Bert A.},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Institutions, Methodology},
}

@article{bikhchandani_theory_1992,
	title = {A theory of fads, fashion, custom, and cultural change as informational cascades},
	pages = {992--1026},
	journaltitle = {Journal of political Economy},
	author = {Bikhchandani, Sushil and Hirshleifer, David and Welch, Ivo},
	date = {1992},
	keywords = {Signaling Games, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{besley_quis_2010,
	title = {Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?: Civilian control over the military},
	volume = {8},
	pages = {655--663},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of the European Economic Association},
	author = {Besley, Timothy and Robinson, James A.},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {Civil-Military Relations, Game Theory},
}

@article{bermeo_does_2009,
	title = {Does electoral democracy boost economic inequality?},
	volume = {20},
	pages = {21--35},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Democracy},
	author = {Bermeo, Nancy},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {{CPE}, Democratic Transitions, Inequality and Transitions},
}

@article{berman_ideology_2010,
	title = {Ideology, history, and politics},
	pages = {105--126},
	journaltitle = {Ideas and Politics in Social Science Research},
	author = {Berman, Sheri},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@book{besley_principled_2007,
	title = {Principled agents?: The political economy of good government},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Besley, Timothy},
	date = {2007},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@incollection{bennett_disciplining_2014,
	title = {Disciplining our conjectures: Systematizing process tracing with bayesian analysis},
	pages = {276--298},
	publisher = {Cambridge Univ Press: Cambridge, {UK}},
	author = {Bennett, Andrew},
	editor = {Bennet, Andrew and Checkel, Jeffrey T.},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Bayesian process tracing, Process tracing},
}

@incollection{bennett_process_2008,
	title = {Process tracing: A bayesian approach},
	pages = {702--721},
	booktitle = {Oxford handbook of political methodology},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Bennett, Andrew},
	editor = {Box-Steffensmeier, Janet and Brady, Henry and Collier, David},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Process Tracing, Qualitative Methods},
}

@article{bellin_robustness_2004,
	title = {The robustness of authoritarianism in the middle east: Exceptionalism in comparative perspective},
	volume = {36},
	pages = {139--157},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Politics},
	author = {Bellin, Eva},
	date = {2004-01},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Middle East, Military},
}

@book{bellin_stalled_2002,
	title = {Stalled democracy : Capital, labor, and the paradox of state-sponsored development},
	publisher = {Cornell University Press},
	author = {Bellin, Eva},
	date = {2002},
	keywords = {Bourgeoisie, Political Economy Middle East},
}

@article{becker_theory_1983,
	title = {A theory of competition among pressure groups for political influence},
	volume = {98},
	pages = {371--400},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	author = {Becker, Gary S},
	date = {1983},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@incollection{bennett_introduction_2014,
	title = {Introduction},
	pages = {3--38},
	booktitle = {Process tracing: From metaphor to analytic tool},
	publisher = {Cambridge, {UK}: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Bennett, Andrew and Checkel, Jeffrey T.},
	editor = {Bennett, Andrew and Checkel, Jeffrey T.},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Process Tracing, Qualitative Methods},
}

@incollection{greif_self-enforcing_1998,
	title = {Self-enforcing political systems and economic growth: Late medieval genoa},
	pages = {23--63},
	booktitle = {Analytical narratives},
	publisher = {Princeton, {NJ}: Princeton University Press},
	author = {Greif, Avner},
	editor = {Bates, Robert H. and Greif, Avner and Levi, Margaret and Rosenthal, Jean-Laurent},
	date = {1998},
	keywords = {Qualitative Methods},
}

@book{beland_ideas_2010,
	title = {Ideas and politics in social science research},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Beland, Daniel and Cox, Robert Henry},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000},
}

@book{bates_markets_1981,
	title = {Markets and states in tropical africa: The political basis of agricultural policies},
	publisher = {University of California Pr},
	author = {Bates, Robert H.},
	date = {1981},
	keywords = {{PLCP} 7000, {PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@article{banerjee_history_2005,
	title = {History, institutions and economic performance: The legacy of colonial land tenure systems in india},
	volume = {95},
	pages = {1190--1213},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {The American Economic Review},
	author = {Banerjee, Abhijit and Iver, Lakshmi},
	date = {2005-09},
	keywords = {{CPE}, Institutional Theory, Instrumental Variables},
}

@book{barnett_confronting_1992,
	title = {Confronting the costs of war},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press: Princeton, {NJ}},
	author = {Barnett, {MIchael}},
	date = {1992},
	keywords = {Egypt, Middle East, Militaries, State Formation},
}

@article{mahjar-barducci_understanding_2012,
	title = {Understanding the “Islamist wave" in tunisia},
	volume = {16},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Middle East Review of International Affairs},
	author = {Mahjar-Barducci, Anna},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Afek Tounes, Tunisia},
}

@article{barbera_birds_2015,
	title = {Birds of the same feather tweet together: Bayesian ideal point estimation using twitter data},
	volume = {23},
	pages = {76--91},
	journaltitle = {Political Analysis},
	author = {Barberá, Pablo},
	date = {2015},
	keywords = {Latent Space Models},
}

@report{baland_land_2006,
	title = {Land and power: Theory and evidence from chile},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	type = {Working paper},
	author = {Baland, Jean-Marie and Robinson, James A},
	date = {2006},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@article{bagozzi_forecasting_2011,
	title = {Forecasting civil conflict with zero-inflated count models},
	journaltitle = {Manuscript. Pennsylvania State University},
	author = {Bagozzi, Benjamin},
	date = {2011},
}

@book{askari_conflicts_2012,
	title = {Conflicts and wars: Their fallout and prevention},
	publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan},
	author = {Askari, Hossein},
	date = {2012},
	keywords = {Iran Iraq War, Owen},
}

@article{azzalini_clustering_2014,
	title = {Clustering via nonparametric density estimation: The r package {pdfCluster}},
	volume = {57},
	number = {11},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Statistical Software},
	author = {Azzalini, Adelchi and Menardi, Giovanni},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Nonparametric clustering},
}

@report{noauthor_sampling_2003,
	title = {Sampling procedures of asian barometer survey},
	institution = {Asianbarometer},
	date = {2003},
}

@article{ashworth_monotone_2006,
	title = {Monotone comparative statics for models of politics},
	volume = {50},
	pages = {214--231},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Ashworth, Scott and Bueno de Mesquita, Ethan},
	date = {2006},
	keywords = {Game Theory and Formal Modeling},
}

@article{appel_ideas_1903,
	title = {Ideas versus resources: Explaining the flat tax and pension privatization},
	volume = {Forthcoming},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Appel, Hilary and Orenstein, Mitchell A},
	date = {1903},
	keywords = {Documents, My Box Files, {PLCP} 7000, Readings, Users},
}

@article{angrist_identification_1996,
	title = {Identification of causal effects using instrumental variables},
	volume = {91},
	pages = {444--455},
	number = {434},
	journaltitle = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
	author = {Angrist, Joshua D. and Imbens, Guido W. and Rubin, Donald B.},
	date = {1996},
	keywords = {Causal Inference, Instrumental Variables},
}

@article{arrow_difficulty_1950,
	title = {A difficulty in the concept of social welfare},
	volume = {58},
	pages = {328--346},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Political Economy},
	author = {Arrow, Kenneth J.},
	date = {1950},
	keywords = {Impossibility Theorem, Structure-induced Equilibrium},
}

@book{arriola_multiethnic_2012,
	title = {Multiethnic coalitions in africa: Business financing of opposition election campaigns},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Arriola, Leonardo},
	date = {2012},
}

@book{ansell_inequality_2014,
	title = {Inequality and democratization: An elite-competition approach},
	publisher = {Cambridge, {UK}: Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Ansell, Ben W. and Samuels, David J.},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Game Theory, Inequality and Transitions},
}

@article{ansell_inequality_2010,
	title = {Inequality and democratization: A contractarian approach},
	volume = {43},
	pages = {1543--1574},
	number = {12},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Ansell, Ben W. and Samuels, David J.},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Economic Structures, Inequality and Transitions, Int'l Env and Transitions},
}

@article{angrist_does_1991,
	title = {Does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings?},
	volume = {106},
	pages = {979--1014},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	author = {Angrist, Joshua D. and Krueger, Alan B.},
	date = {1991},
	keywords = {Instrumental Variables},
}

@article{angrist_lifetime_1990,
	title = {Lifetime earnings and the vietnam era draft lottery: Evidence from social security administration records},
	volume = {80},
	pages = {313--336},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {The American Economic Review},
	author = {Angrist, Joshua D.},
	date = {1990},
	keywords = {Instrumental Variables},
}

@article{angeletos_dynamic_2007,
	title = {Dynamic global games of regime change: Learning, multiplicity, and the timing of attacks},
	volume = {75},
	pages = {711--756},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Econometrica},
	author = {Angeletos, George-Marios and Hellwig, Christian and Pavan, Alessandro},
	date = {2007},
	keywords = {Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{andersen_big_2014,
	title = {The big oil change: A closer look at the haber-menaldo analys},
	volume = {47},
	pages = {993--1021},
	number = {7},
	journaltitle = {Comparative Political Studies},
	author = {Andersen, Jorgen J. and Ross, Michael L.},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Oil, Time Series},
}

@book{anderson_state_1986,
	title = {The state and social transformation in tunisia and libya, 1830-1980},
	publisher = {Princeton, {NJ}: Princeton University Press},
	author = {Anderson, Lisa},
	date = {1986},
	keywords = {State Formation, Tunisia},
}

@article{alvarez_classifying_1996,
	title = {Classifying political regimes},
	volume = {31},
	pages = {3--36},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Studies in Comparative International Development},
	author = {Alvarez, Mika and Cheibub, Jose Antonio and Limongi, Fernando and Przeworski, Adam},
	date = {1996},
}

@report{alesina_ethnic_2004,
	title = {Ethnic diversity and economic performance},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	type = {Working paper},
	author = {Alesina, Alberto and Ferrara, Eliana La},
	date = {2004},
	keywords = {Group Identity, {PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@report{alesina_why_2001,
	title = {Why doesn't the united states have a european-style welfare state?},
	pages = {187--254},
	institution = {{JSTOR} / Brookings Institution},
	type = {Papers on economic activity},
	author = {Alesina, Alberto and Glaeser, Edward and Sacerdote, Bruce},
	date = {2001},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@article{albrecht_back_2011,
	title = {Back on horseback: The military and political transformation in egypt},
	volume = {3},
	pages = {13--23},
	journaltitle = {Middle East Law and Governance},
	author = {Albrecht, Holger and Bishara, Dina},
	date = {2011},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Democratic Transitions, Egypt, Middle East, Militaries},
}

@article{albertus_gaming_2014,
	title = {Gaming democracy: Elite dominance during transition and the prospects for redistribution},
	volume = {44},
	pages = {575--603},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {British Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Albertus, Michael and Menaldo, Victor},
	date = {2014},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Threat of Revolution},
}

@book{aissaoui_algeria_2001,
	title = {Algeria: The political economy of oil and gas},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Aissaoui, Ali},
	date = {2001},
	keywords = {Algeria, Oil, Political Economy},
}

@article{aghion_endogenous_2004,
	title = {Endogenous political institutions},
	volume = {119},
	pages = {565--611},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	author = {Aghion, Philippe and Alesina, Alberto and Trebbi, Francesco},
	date = {2004},
	keywords = {Rational Choice},
}

@book{achcar_people_2013,
	title = {The people want : a radical exploration of the Arab uprising},
	publisher = {University of California Press},
	author = {Achcar, Gilbert},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Owen},
}

@article{acemoglu_persistence_2008,
	title = {Persistence of power, elites, and institutions},
	volume = {98},
	pages = {267--93},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Economic Review},
	author = {Acemoğlu, Daron and Robinson, James A},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Rational Choice},
}

@incollection{aghrout_north_2008,
	title = {North africa: Politics, region, and the limits of transformation},
	pages = {31--52},
	publisher = {New York, {NY}: Routledge},
	author = {Aghrout, Ahmed},
	editor = {Zoubir, Yahia H. and Amirah-Fernandez, Haizam},
	date = {2008},
	keywords = {Algeria},
}

@article{acemoglu_theory_2010,
	title = {A theory of military dictatorships},
	volume = {2},
	pages = {1--42},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {American Economic Journal},
	author = {Acemoğlu, Daron and Ticchi, Davide and Vindigni, Andrea},
	date = {2010},
	keywords = {Civil-military Relations, Game Theory},
}

@article{acemoglu_reevaluating_2009,
	title = {Reevaluating the modernization hypothesis},
	volume = {56},
	pages = {1043--1058},
	number = {8},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
	author = {Acemoğlu, Daron and Robinson, James A and Johnson, Simon and Yared, Pierre},
	date = {2009},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Inequality and Transitions},
}

@article{acemoglu_colonial_2001,
	title = {The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation},
	volume = {91},
	pages = {1369--1401},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {The American Economic Review},
	author = {Acemoğlu, Daron and Robinson, A},
	date = {2001},
	keywords = {{CPE}, Institutional Theory, Instrumental Variables, State Capacity},
}

@article{abadie_economic_2003,
	title = {The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the basque region},
	volume = {93},
	pages = {113--132},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The American Economic Review},
	author = {Abadie, Alberto and Gardeazabal, Javier},
	date = {2003},
	keywords = {Civil War, Differences-in-Differences, Matching},
}

@book{acemoglu_economic_2006,
	title = {Economic origins of dictatorship and democracy},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Acemoğlu, Daron and Robinson, James},
	date = {2006},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Game Theory and Formal Modeling, Inequality and Transitions},
}

@article{acemoglu_inefficient_2001,
	title = {Inefficient redistribution},
	volume = {95},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
	author = {Acemoğlu, Daron and Robinson, James A},
	date = {2001},
	keywords = {{PLCP} Rational Choice},
}

@article{acemoglu_why_2000,
	title = {Why did the west extend the franchise? Democracy, inequality, and growth in historical perspective},
	volume = {115},
	pages = {1167--1199},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	author = {Acemoglu, Daron and Robinson, James A.},
	date = {2000},
	keywords = {Democratic Transitions, Political Economy},
}

@article{ward_comparing_2013,
	title = {Comparing {GDELT} and {ICEWS} event data},
	author = {Ward, Michael D. and Beger, Andreas and Cutler, Josh and Dickenson, Matt and Dorff, Cassy and Radford, Ben},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {Predicting Social Science},
}

@inproceedings{nguyen_tea_2015,
	title = {Tea party in the house: A hierarchical ideal point topic model and its application to republican legislators in the 112th congress},
	url = {http://aclweb.org/anthology/P/P15/P15-1139.pdf},
	pages = {1438--1448},
	booktitle = {Proceedings of the 53rd annual meeting of the association for computational linguistics and the 7th international joint conference on natural language processing of the asian federation of natural language processing, {ACL} 2015, july 26-31, 2015, beijing, china, volume 1: Long papers},
	author = {Nguyen, Viet-An and Boyd-Graber, Jordan L. and Resnik, Philip and Miler, Kristina},
	date = {2015},
}

@article{shannon_mathematical_1948,
	title = {A mathematical theory of communication},
	volume = {27},
	pages = {379--423},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {The Bell System Technical Journal},
	author = {Shannon, C. E.},
	date = {1948},
}

@article{nassif_military_2015,
	title = {A military besieged: The armed forces, the police and the party in bin 'ali's tunisia, 1987-2011},
	volume = {47},
	pages = {65--87},
	journaltitle = {International Journal of Middle East Studies},
	author = {Nassif, Hicham Bou},
	date = {2015},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Civil-Military Relations, Tunisia},
}

@article{hassanpour_media_2011,
	title = {Media disruption exacerbates revolutionary unrest: Evidence from Mubarak's natural experiment},
	author = {Hassanpour, Navid},
	date = {2011},
	keywords = {Arab Spring, Middle East, Network Analysis, Social Media Theory, Social Movement Theory},
}

@article{bertoli_nationalism_2013,
	title = {Nationalism and interstate conflict: A regression discontinuity analysis},
	author = {Bertoli, Andrew},
	date = {2013},
	keywords = {{PLAD} 7090},
}

@article{robson_promoting_2021,
	title = {Promoting Open Science: A Holistic Approach to Changing Behaviour},
	volume = {7},
	issn = {2474-7394},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1525/collabra.30137},
	doi = {10.1525/collabra.30137},
	shorttitle = {Promoting Open Science},
	abstract = {In this article, we provide a toolbox of recommendations and resources for those aspiring to promote the uptake of open scientific practices. Open Science encompasses a range of behaviours that aim to improve the transparency of scientific research. This paper is divided into seven sections, each devoted to different groups or institutions in the research ecosystem: colleagues, students, departments and faculties, universities, academic libraries, journals, and funders. We describe the behavioural influences and incentives for each of these stakeholders as well as changes they can make to foster Open Science. Our primary goal, however, is to suggest actions that researchers can take to promote these behaviours, inspired by simple principles of behaviour change: make it easy, social, and attractive. In isolation, a small shift in one person’s behaviour may appear to make little difference, but when combined, many shifts can radically alter shared norms and culture. We offer this toolbox to assist individuals and institutions in cultivating a more open research culture.},
	pages = {30137},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Collabra: Psychology},
	shortjournal = {Collabra: Psychology},
	author = {Robson, Samuel G. and Baum, Myriam A. and Beaudry, Jennifer L. and Beitner, Julia and Brohmer, Hilmar and Chin, Jason M. and Jasko, Katarzyna and Kouros, Chrystyna D. and Laukkonen, Ruben E. and Moreau, David and Searston, Rachel A. and Slagter, Heleen A. and Steffens, Niklas K. and Tangen, Jason M. and Thomas, Amberyn},
	urldate = {2021-12-26},
	date = {2021-12-17},
}

@article{biemer_total_2010,
	title = {Total Survey Error: Design, Implementation, and Evaluation {\textbar} Public Opinion Quarterly {\textbar} Oxford Academic},
	volume = {74},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/poq/article/74/5/817/1815551?login=true},
	pages = {817--848},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {Public Opinion Quarterly},
	author = {Biemer, Paul P.},
	urldate = {2021-12-22},
	date = {2010},
}

@report{kubinec_pandemic-safe_2021,
	title = {‪Pandemic-Safe Research with Online Surveys‬},
	url = {https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=bhOaXR4AAAAJ&alert_preview_top_rm=2&citation_for_view=bhOaXR4AAAAJ:M3NEmzRMIkIC},
	shorttitle = {‪{MENA} Newsletter},
	institution = {American Political Science Association},
	type = {{MENA} Newsletter},
	author = {Kubinec, Robert},
	urldate = {2021-12-22},
	date = {2021},
}

@online{noauthor_robert_nodate,
	title = {Robert Kubinec},
	url = {https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=bhOaXR4AAAAJ&hl=en},
	abstract = {‪Assistant Professor of Political Science, New York University Abu Dhabi‬ - ‪‪Cited by 367‬‬ - ‪Political economy‬ - ‪Bayesian statistics‬ - ‪Middle East and North Africa‬},
	urldate = {2021-12-22},
}

@book{king_solution_1997,
	title = {A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem},
	isbn = {978-0-691-01240-7},
	url = {https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691012407/a-solution-to-the-ecological-inference-problem},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press},
	author = {King, Gary},
	urldate = {2021-12-20},
	date = {1997-04-06},
	langid = {english},
}

@report{marwane_after_2021,
	title = {After Two Years of Algeria’s Hirak, What Has Been Accomplished?},
	url = {https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/after-two-years-algerias-hirak-what-has-been-accomplished},
	abstract = {Algeria's divided Hirak movement needs greater unity in order to strengthen real, democratic institutions.},
	institution = {The Washington Institute},
	author = {Marwane, Ahmed},
	urldate = {2021-12-20},
	date = {2021-03-31},
	langid = {english},
}

@report{robbins_algeria_2019,
	title = {Algeria Protests 2019},
	url = {https://www.arabbarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/ABV_Algeria_Protests_Public-Opinion_Arab-Barometer_2019.pdf},
	institution = {Arab Barometer},
	type = {Topic Report},
	author = {Robbins, Michael},
	date = {2019-08},
}

@article{dodlova_social_2017,
	title = {Social transfers and conditionalities under different regime types},
	volume = {50},
	issn = {0176-2680},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268016302063},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2017.10.001},
	abstract = {This paper examines the implications of political factors for social policy choices. Specifically, we explore the link between regime type and adoption of unconditional transfers versus transfers conditioned on beneficiaries’ investments in human capital. Due to the direct nature of benefits, unconditional transfers are more likely to be used to buy off opposition and prevent social unrest. As transfers that are conditioned on education and health pay off only in a relatively distant future, they are rarely initiated for political motives and rather defined by interests of long-term development and human capital accumulation. Using the new dataset on Non-Contributory Social Transfer Programs ({NSTP}) in developing countries, we find that transfers are indeed chosen so as to be unconditional under less democratic regimes. There is some evidence that conditional transfers are more likely to be adopted in democracies. In particular, democracies tend to increase the number of conditional schemes once any social transfer program is introduced.},
	pages = {141--156},
	journaltitle = {European Journal of Political Economy},
	shortjournal = {European Journal of Political Economy},
	author = {Dodlova, Marina and Giolbas, Anna and Lay, Jann},
	urldate = {2021-12-20},
	date = {2017-12-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Conditional programs, Democracy/non-democracy, Political regime, Pro-poor redistribution, Social transfers},
}

@book{medani_black_2021,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {Black Markets and Militants: Informal Networks in the Middle East and Africa},
	isbn = {978-1-108-83251-9},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/black-markets-and-militants/8C7CE1BFFBE59EE246354403126B7F58},
	shorttitle = {Black Markets and Militants},
	abstract = {Understanding the political and socio-economic factors which give rise to youth recruitment into militant organizations is at the heart of grasping some of the most important issues that affect the contemporary Middle East and Africa. In this book, Khalid Mustafa Medani explains why youth are attracted to militant organizations, examining the specific role economic globalization, in the form of outmigration and expatriate remittance inflows, plays in determining how and why militant activists emerge. The study challenges existing accounts that rely primarily on ideology to explain militant recruitment. Based on extensive fieldwork, Medani offers an in-depth analysis of the impact of globalization, neoliberal reforms and informal economic networks as a conduit for the rise and evolution of moderate and militant Islamist movements and as an avenue central to the often, violent enterprise of state building and state formation. In an original contribution to the study of Islamist and ethnic politics more broadly, he thereby shows the importance of understanding when and under what conditions religious rather than other forms of identity become politically salient in the context of changes in local conditions.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Medani, Khalid Mustafa},
	urldate = {2021-12-16},
	date = {2021},
	doi = {10.1017/9781108961011},
}

@book{norman_reluctant_2020,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {Reluctant Reception: Refugees, Migration and Governance in the Middle East and North Africa},
	isbn = {978-1-108-84236-5},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/reluctant-reception/558E2A93FF99B8F295347A8FA2053698},
	shorttitle = {Reluctant Reception},
	abstract = {Seeking to understand why host states treat migrants and refugees inclusively, exclusively, or without any direct engagement, Kelsey P. Norman offers this original, comparative analysis of the politics of asylum seeking and migration in the Middle East and North Africa. While current classifications of migrant and refugee engagement in the Global South mistake the absence of formal policy and law for neglect, Reluctant Reception proposes the concept of 'strategic indifference', where states proclaim to be indifferent toward migrants and refugees, thereby inviting international organizations and local {NGOs} to step in and provide services on the state's behalf. Using the cases of Egypt, Morocco and Turkey to develop her theory of 'strategic indifference', Norman demonstrates how, by allowing migrants and refugees to integrate locally into large informal economies, and by allowing organizations to provide basic services, host countries receive international credibility while only exerting minimal state resources.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Norman, Kelsey P.},
	urldate = {2021-12-16},
	date = {2020},
	doi = {10.1017/9781108900119},
}

@book{droz-vincent_military_2020,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {Military Politics of the Contemporary Arab World},
	isbn = {978-1-108-47742-0},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/military-politics-of-the-contemporary-arab-world/65918C88FF770177C4EC40C3AD6FA9FB},
	abstract = {Aside from large-scale civic mobilisations, no force was more critical to the outcomes of the 2011 Arab uprisings than the armed forces. Nearly a decade after these events, we see militaries across the region in power, once again performing critical roles in state politics. Taking as a point of reference five case studies where uprisings took place in 2011, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria, Philippe Droz-Vincent explores how these armies were able to install themselves for decades under enduring authoritarian regimes, how armies reacted to the 2011 Uprisings, and what role they played in the post-Uprising regime re-formations or collapses. Devoting a chapter to monarchical armies with a special focus on Saudi Arabia and the {UAE}, Droz-Vincent addresses whether monarchies radically differ from republics, to compare the foundational role of Arab armies in state building, in the Arab world and beyond.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Droz-Vincent, Philippe},
	urldate = {2021-12-16},
	date = {2020},
	doi = {10.1017/9781108769839},
}

@book{bou_nassif_endgames_2020,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {Endgames: Military Response to Protest in Arab Autocracies},
	isbn = {978-1-108-84124-5},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/endgames/EDC8E52E024C4CC3C5D67085C42F3D0C},
	shorttitle = {Endgames},
	abstract = {The 2011 Arab Spring is the story of what happens when autocrats prepare their militaries to thwart coups but unexpectedly face massive popular uprisings instead. When demonstrators took to the streets in 2011, some militaries remained loyal to the autocratic regimes, some defected, whilst others splintered. The widespread consequences of this military agency ranged from facilitating transition to democracy, to reconfiguring authoritarianism, or triggering civil war. This study aims to explain the military politics of 2011. Building on interviews with Arab officers, extensive fieldwork and archival research, as well as hundreds of memoirs published by Arab officers, Hicham Bou Nassif shows how divergent combinations of coup-proofing tactics accounted for different patterns of military behaviour in 2011, both in Egypt and Syria, and across Tunisia, and Libya.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Bou Nassif, Hicham},
	urldate = {2021-12-16},
	date = {2020},
	doi = {10.1017/9781108893695},
}

@book{joya_roots_2020,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {The Roots of Revolt: A Political Economy of Egypt from Nasser to Mubarak},
	isbn = {978-1-108-47836-6},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/roots-of-revolt/09B4F8A023ED464AE02E67B944FDE723},
	shorttitle = {The Roots of Revolt},
	abstract = {A conceptually rich, historically informed, and interdisciplinary study of the contentious politics emerging out of decades of authoritarian neoliberal economic reform, The Roots of Revolt examines the contested political economy of Egypt from Nasser to Mubarak, just prior to the Arab Uprisings of 2010–11. Based on extensive fieldwork conducted across rural and urban Egypt, Angela Joya employs an 'on the ground' approach to critical political economy that challenges the interpretations of Egyptian politics put forward by scholars of both democratization and authoritarianism. By critically reassessing the relationship between democracy and capitalist development, Joya demonstrates how renewed authoritarian politics were required to institutionalize neoliberal reforms demanded by the International Monetary Fund, presenting the real-world impact of economic policy on the lives of ordinary Egyptians before the Arab Uprisings.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Joya, Angela},
	urldate = {2021-12-16},
	date = {2020},
	doi = {10.1017/9781108777537},
}

@book{kuru_islam_2019,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {Islam, Authoritarianism, and Underdevelopment: A Global and Historical Comparison},
	isbn = {978-1-108-41909-3},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/islam-authoritarianism-and-underdevelopment/E337124CD3A3DDAB72136E0B9FC898EB},
	shorttitle = {Islam, Authoritarianism, and Underdevelopment},
	abstract = {Why do Muslim-majority countries exhibit high levels of authoritarianism and low levels of socio-economic development in comparison to world averages? Ahmet T. Kuru criticizes explanations which point to Islam as the cause of this disparity, because Muslims were philosophically and socio-economically more developed than Western Europeans between the ninth and twelfth centuries. Nor was Western colonialism the cause: Muslims had already suffered political and socio-economic problems when colonization began. Kuru argues that Muslims had influential thinkers and merchants in their early history, when religious orthodoxy and military rule were prevalent in Europe. However, in the eleventh century, an alliance between orthodox Islamic scholars (the ulema) and military states began to emerge. This alliance gradually hindered intellectual and economic creativity by marginalizing intellectual and bourgeois classes in the Muslim world. This important study links its historical explanation to contemporary politics by showing that, to this day, ulema-state alliance still prevents creativity and competition in Muslim countries.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Kuru, Ahmet T.},
	urldate = {2021-12-16},
	date = {2019},
	doi = {10.1017/9781108296892},
}

@book{daoudy_origins_2020,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {The Origins of the Syrian Conflict: Climate Change and Human Security},
	isbn = {978-1-108-47608-9},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/origins-of-the-syrian-conflict/27BFB986E63812BE4BC100FA23FA869A},
	shorttitle = {The Origins of the Syrian Conflict},
	abstract = {Does climate change cause conflict? Did it cause the Syrian uprising? Some policymakers and academics have made this claim, but is it true? This study presents a new conceptual framework to evaluate this claim. Contributing to scholarship in the fields of critical security, environmental security, human security, and Arab politics, Marwa Daoudy prioritizes non-Western and marginalized perspectives to make sense of Syria's place in this international debate. Designing an innovative multidisciplinary framework and applying it to the Syrian case, Daoudy uses extensive field research and her own personal background as a Syrian scholar to present primary interviews with Syrian government officials and citizens, as well as the research of domestic Syrian experts, to provide a unique insight into Syria's environmental, economic and social vulnerabilities leading up to the 2011 uprising.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Daoudy, Marwa},
	urldate = {2021-12-16},
	date = {2020},
	doi = {10.1017/9781108567053},
}

@book{hartshorn_labor_2019,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {Labor Politics in North Africa: After the Uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia},
	isbn = {978-1-108-42602-2},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/labor-politics-in-north-africa/20774021A36FD0DF866317B7FF455DAA},
	shorttitle = {Labor Politics in North Africa},
	abstract = {The Arab Uprisings of 2010 and 2011 had a profound effect on labor politics in the region, with trade unions mobilizing to an extent never before seen. How did these formerly quiescent trade unions become militant? What linkages did they make to other social forces during and after the revolutions? And why did Tunisian unions emerge cohesive and influential while Egyptian unions were fractured and lacked influence? Following extensive interviews, Ian M. Hartshorn answers these questions and assesses how unions forged alliances, claimed independence, and cooperated with international groups. Looking at institutions both domestically and internationally, he traces the corporatist collapse and the role of global labor in offering training and new possibilities for disgruntled workers. With special attention to the relationship with rising Islamist powers, he also examines the ways in which political parties tried to use labor, and vice versa, and provides a detailed study of the role of labor in ousting the first Islamist governments.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Hartshorn, Ian M.},
	urldate = {2021-12-16},
	date = {2019},
	doi = {10.1017/9781108351157},
}

@book{mccarthy_inside_2018,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {Inside Tunisia's al-Nahda: Between Politics and Preaching},
	isbn = {978-1-108-47251-7},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/inside-tunisias-alnahda/2AD6D334AC0A0A8C93F5AE15FDC60A71},
	series = {Cambridge Middle East Studies},
	shorttitle = {Inside Tunisia's al-Nahda},
	abstract = {In the wake of the Arab uprisings, al-Nahda voted to transform itself into a political party that would for the first time withdraw from a preaching project built around religious, social, and cultural activism. This turn to the political was not a Tunisian exception but reflects an urgent debate within Islamist movements as they struggle to adjust to a rapidly changing political environment. This book re-orientates how we think about Islamist movements. Drawing on extensive fieldwork with grassroots activists of Tunisia's al-Nahda, Rory {McCarthy} focuses on the lived experience of activism to offer a challenging new perspective on one of the Middle East's most successful Islamist projects. Original evidence explains how al-Nahda survived two decades of brutal repression in prison and in social exclusion, and reveals what price the movement paid for a new strategy of pragmatism and reform during the Tunisian transition away from authoritarianism.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {{McCarthy}, Rory},
	urldate = {2021-12-16},
	date = {2018},
	doi = {10.1017/9781108560511},
}

@book{bishara_contesting_2018,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {Contesting Authoritarianism: Labor Challenges to the State in Egypt},
	isbn = {978-1-107-19357-4},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/contesting-authoritarianism/C4B47EAB455093596822DCD6317868F7},
	series = {Cambridge Middle East Studies},
	shorttitle = {Contesting Authoritarianism},
	abstract = {Successive authoritarian regimes have maintained tight control over organized labor in Egypt since the 1950s. And yet in 2009, a group of civil servants decided to exit the state-controlled Egyptian Trade Union Federation ({ETUF}), thereby setting a precedent for other groups and threatening the {ETUF}'s monopoly. Dina Bishara examines this relationship between labour organizations and the state to shed light on how political change occurs within an authoritarian government, and to show how ordinary Egyptians perceive the government's rule. In particular, Bishara highlights the agency of dissident unionists in challenging the state even when trade union leaders remain loyal. She reveals that militant sectors are more vulnerable to greater scrutiny and repression and that financial benefits tied to membership in state-backed unions can provide significant disincentives against the exit option. Moving beyond conventional accounts of top-down control, this book explores when and how institutions designed for political control become contested from below.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Bishara, Dina},
	urldate = {2021-12-16},
	date = {2018},
	doi = {10.1017/9781108147873},
}

@book{forster_quiet_2017,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {A Quiet Revolution?: The Rise of Women Managers, Business Owners and Leaders in the Arabian Gulf States},
	isbn = {978-1-107-14346-3},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/quiet-revolution/79F80A43DECD78EE99D6F887DC71E63C},
	shorttitle = {A Quiet Revolution?},
	abstract = {An irreversible transformation is taking place in the lives of many thousands of university educated professional women in the United Arab Emirates, Oman and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Drawing on eight years' participative research and extensive secondary sources, Nick Forster introduces the first extensive study to document this development in the Middle East. This book documents the emerging economic and political power of women, and how they are beginning to challenge ancient and deeply-held beliefs about the 'correct' roles of men and women in conservative Islamic societies, and in public and private sector organisations. It also describes the vital role that women could play in the economic development and diversification of these countries, and the broader {MENA} region, in the future. It is an essential read for professionals, scholars and students, in fields as diverse as economic development, international management, gender studies, and Middle Eastern studies.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Forster, Nick},
	urldate = {2021-12-16},
	date = {2017},
	doi = {10.1017/9781316534601},
}

@book{crystal_oil_1990,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {Oil and Politics in the Gulf: Rulers and Merchants in Kuwait and Qatar},
	isbn = {978-0-521-46635-6},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/oil-and-politics-in-the-gulf/CDE9790AAD2CD2940DC6AA4AC7639CE2},
	series = {Cambridge Middle East Library},
	shorttitle = {Oil and Politics in the Gulf},
	abstract = {This book asks why in recent years the social and economic upheavals in Kuwait and Qatar have been accompanied by a remarkable political continuity. Professor Crystal investigates this apparent anomaly by examining the impact of oil on the formation and destruction of political coalitions and state institutions. Partly based on a year's fieldwork in the Gulf and making full use of Arabic and Gulf sources, Oil and Politics in the Gulf goes far beyond previously published accounts of the region in its analysis of the effects of oil on domestic politics.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Crystal, Jill},
	urldate = {2021-12-06},
	date = {1990},
	doi = {10.1017/CBO9780511558818},
}

@report{schoon_operationalizing_2020,
	title = {Operationalizing Legitimacy},
	url = {https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/q5tnd/},
	abstract = {Legitimacy is widely invoked as a condition, cause, and outcome of other social phenomena, yet measuring legitimacy is a persistent challenge. This article synthesizes existing approaches to conceptualizing legitimacy across the social sciences to identify widely agreed upon definitional properties, and builds on these points of consensus to develop a generalizable approach to operationalization. Legitimacy implies specific relationships among three empirical elements: an object of legitimacy, an audience that confers legitimacy, and a relationship between the two. Together, these empirical elements constitute a dyad (i.e., a single unit consisting of two nodes and a tie). I identify three necessary conditions for legitimacy—expectations, assent, and conformity—that specify how elements of the dyad interact. I detail how these conditions can be used to empirically establish legitimacy (and illegitimacy), distinguishing it from dissimilar phenomena that may appear similar in their empirical manifestations. I elaborate the advantages of approaching the measurement of legitimacy in this way. Followed to its logical conclusion, this operationalization has important implications for understanding the effects of legitimacy. I discuss these implications, and how they inform debates over the relevance of legitimacy for explaining socially significant outcomes.},
	institution = {{SocArXiv}},
	author = {Schoon, Eric W.},
	urldate = {2021-12-05},
	date = {2020-01-11},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.31235/osf.io/q5tnd},
	note = {type: article},
	keywords = {Social and Behavioral Sciences, Sociology, Theory, illegitimacy, legitimacy, networks, operationalization, relational sociology, theory},
}

@article{tawiah_partisan_2021,
	title = {Partisan political connections, ethnic tribalism, and firm performance},
	issn = {1573-7179},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11156-021-01026-8},
	doi = {10.1007/s11156-021-01026-8},
	abstract = {This paper investigates the impact of partisan political connections and ethnic tribalism on firm performance in a hyper-partisan political environment. Although existing literature generally shows that political connections improve firm performance, we argue that under the theory of electoral competition, political connections can be a double-edged sword because of the tension of partisan politics. Hence, we expect that changes in government can affect firm performance. Using a unique dataset from Nigeria, we find that political connections are valuable when a firm's patron party is in power, whereas they are detrimental to firm value when their patron party is in opposition. Furthermore, we find that {CEO} ethnic tribal affiliation with the President improves firm performance even when the firm's patron party is in opposition. This paper extends the literature on political connections and helps managers and policymakers understand the timely use of political connections in a hyper-partisan environment.},
	journaltitle = {Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting},
	shortjournal = {Rev Quant Finan Acc},
	author = {Tawiah, Vincent and Zakari, Abdulrasheed and Wang, Yan},
	urldate = {2021-12-01},
	date = {2021-11-27},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{horrace_results_2006,
	title = {Results on the bias and inconsistency of ordinary least squares for the linear probability model},
	volume = {90},
	issn = {0165-1765},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176505003150},
	doi = {10.1016/j.econlet.2005.08.024},
	abstract = {This note formalizes bias and inconsistency results for ordinary least squares ({OLS}) on the linear probability model and provides sufficient conditions for unbiasedness and consistency to hold. The conditions suggest that a “trimming estimator” may reduce {OLS} bias.},
	pages = {321--327},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Economics Letters},
	shortjournal = {Economics Letters},
	author = {Horrace, William C. and Oaxaca, Ronald L.},
	urldate = {2021-11-17},
	date = {2006-03-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Consistency, {LPM}, {OLS}, Unbiased},
}

@article{aidt_workers_2014,
	title = {Workers of the world, unite! Franchise extensions and the threat of revolution in Europe, 1820–1938},
	volume = {72},
	issn = {0014-2921},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292114001184},
	doi = {10.1016/j.euroecorev.2014.08.001},
	abstract = {We test the hypothesis that the extension of the voting franchise in Europe was related to the threat of revolution. We contend that international diffusion of regime contention and information about revolutionary events happening in neighboring countries generate the necessary variation in the perceived threat of revolution. Using two samples of European countries covering the period from 1820 to 1938, we find robust evidence which is consistent with the ‘threat of revolution hypothesis’. We also find some evidence that war triggered suffrage reform.},
	pages = {52--75},
	journaltitle = {European Economic Review},
	shortjournal = {European Economic Review},
	author = {Aidt, Toke S. and Jensen, Peter S.},
	urldate = {2021-11-17},
	date = {2014-11-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Economics of democratization, Suffrage, Threat of revolution},
}

@article{betancourt_ordinal_2019,
	title = {Ordinal Regression},
	url = {https://betanalpha.github.io/assets/case_studies/ordinal_regression.html},
	journaltitle = {Case Study},
	author = {Betancourt, Michael},
	urldate = {2021-11-17},
	date = {2019-05},
}

@incollection{samejima_graded_1997,
	title = {Graded response model},
	pages = {85--100},
	booktitle = {Handbook of modern item response theory},
	publisher = {Springer},
	author = {Samejima, Fumiko},
	date = {1997},
}

@article{manuguerra_continuous_2020,
	title = {Continuous Ordinal Regression for Analysis of Visual Analogue Scales: The R Package {ordinalCont}},
	volume = {96},
	rights = {Copyright (c) 2020 Maurizio Manuguerra, Gillian Z. Heller, Jun Ma},
	issn = {1548-7660},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v096.i08},
	doi = {10.18637/jss.v096.i08},
	shorttitle = {Continuous Ordinal Regression for Analysis of Visual Analogue Scales},
	abstract = {This paper introduces the R package {ordinalCont}, which implements an ordinal regression framework for response variables which are recorded on a visual analogue scale ({VAS}). This scale is used when recording subjects' perception of an intangible quantity such as pain, anxiety or quality of life, and consists of a mark made on a linear scale. We implement continuous ordinal regression models for {VAS} as the appropriate method of analysis for such responses, and introduce smoothing terms and random effects in the linear predictor. The model parameters are estimated using constrained optimization of the penalized likelihood and the penalty parameters are automatically selected via maximization of their marginal likelihood. The estimation algorithm is shown to perform well, in a simulation study. Two examples of application are given: the first involves the analysis of pain outcomes in a clinical trial for laser treatment for chronic neck pain; the second is an analysis of quality of life outcomes in a clinical trial for chemotherapy for the treatment of breast cancer.},
	pages = {1--25},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Statistical Software},
	author = {Manuguerra, Maurizio and Heller, Gillian Z. and Ma, Jun},
	urldate = {2021-11-16},
	date = {2020-12-05},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {R},
}

@article{neep_what_2021,
	title = {‘What have the Ottomans ever done for us?’ Why history matters for politics in the Arab Middle East},
	volume = {97},
	issn = {0020-5850},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiab145},
	doi = {10.1093/ia/iiab145},
	shorttitle = {‘What have the Ottomans ever done for us?},
	abstract = {Scholars of Middle East politics have been reluctant to explore how the long nineteenth century has shaped the region's political development. The reason for this neglect, I argue, is a common understanding of Ottoman decline and failed modernization, which suggests that the story of modern politics in the Middle East commences with colonial partition after the First World War. But what if political scientists are getting the story wrong? In this article, I argue that our background assumptions about the political development of the Middle East reflect outdated understandings that historians themselves have long left behind. Drawing on this revisionist Ottoman historiography, I show that key dynamics in Middle East politics today—such as state-building and sectarian identities—originate not in the era ushered in by the Sykes–Picot Accord, but in the transformations of the long nineteenth century. By overlooking the evolution of late Ottoman politics and their historical legacies, political scientists risk misdiagnosing key dynamics in the region's political development. ‘Bringing the Ottomans back in’ highlights to policy-makers the importance of the extra-institutional dimensions of statebuilding in the Middle East, and opens up new vistas for research in comparative–historical political science.},
	pages = {1825--1841},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {International Affairs},
	shortjournal = {International Affairs},
	author = {Neep, Daniel},
	urldate = {2021-11-12},
	date = {2021-11-01},
}

@article{swearingen_inflated_2012,
	title = {Inflated Beta Regression: Zero, One, and Everything in Between},
	url = {https://support.sas.com/resources/papers/proceedings12/325-2012.pdf},
	abstract = {Beta Regression, an extension of generalized linear models, can estimate the effect of explanatory variables on data falling within the (0,1) interval. Recent developments in Beta Regression theory extend the support interval to now include 0 and 1. The \%Beta\_Regression macro is updated to now allow for Zero-One Inflated Beta Regression.},
	pages = {11},
	journaltitle = {{SAS} Global Forum},
	author = {Swearingen, Christopher J and Melguizo, Maria S and Bursac, Zoran},
	date = {2012},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{johann_testing_2017,
	title = {Testing the Validity of the Crosswise Model: A Study on Attitudes Towards Muslims},
	issn = {2296-4754},
	url = {https://surveyinsights.org/?p=8887},
	doi = {10.13094/SMIF-2017-00001},
	shorttitle = {Testing the Validity of the Crosswise Model},
	abstract = {This paper investigates the concurrent validity of the Crosswise Model when “high incidence behaviour” is concerned by looking at respondents’ self-reported attitudes towards Muslims. We analyse the concurrent validity by comparing the performance of the Crosswise Model to a Direct Question format. The Crosswise Model was designed to ensure anonymity and confidentiality in order to reduce Social Desirability Bias induced by the tendency of survey respondents to present themselves in a favourable light. The article suggests that measures obtained using either question format are fairly similar. However, when estimating models and comparing the impact of common predictors of negative attitudes towards Muslims, some puzzling results are revealed raising concerns about the validity of the Crosswise Model.},
	journaltitle = {Survey Methods: Insights from the Field ({SMIF})},
	author = {Johann, David and Thomas, Kathrin},
	urldate = {2021-11-03},
	date = {2017-05-16},
	langid = {american},
}

@article{krumpal_estimating_2012,
	title = {Estimating the prevalence of xenophobia and anti-Semitism in Germany: A comparison of randomized response and direct questioning},
	volume = {41},
	issn = {0049-089X},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0049089X12001172},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ssresearch.2012.05.015},
	shorttitle = {Estimating the prevalence of xenophobia and anti-Semitism in Germany},
	abstract = {An experimental {CATI}-survey (N=2041), asking sensitive questions about xenophobia and anti-Semitism in Germany, was conducted to compare the randomized response technique ({RRT}) and the direct questioning technique. Unlike the vast majority of {RRT} surveys measuring the prevalence of socially undesirable behaviors, only few studies have explored the effectiveness of the {RRT} with respect to the disclosure of socially undesirable opinions. Results suggest that the {RRT} is an effective method eliciting more socially undesirable opinions and yielding more valid prevalence estimates of xenophobia and anti-Semitism than direct questioning (‘more-is-better’ assumption). Furthermore, the results indicate that with increasing topic sensitivity, the benefits of using the {RRT} also increase. Finally, adapted logistic regression analyses show that several covariates such as education and generalized trust are related to the likelihood of being prejudiced towards foreigners and Jews.},
	pages = {1387--1403},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {Social Science Research},
	shortjournal = {Social Science Research},
	author = {Krumpal, Ivar},
	urldate = {2021-11-03},
	date = {2012-11-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Anti-Semitism, Randomized response technique, Sensitive questions, Social desirability bias, Survey design, Xenophobia},
}

@article{gover_anti-asian_2020,
	title = {Anti-Asian Hate Crime During the {COVID}-19 Pandemic: Exploring the Reproduction of Inequality},
	volume = {45},
	issn = {1936-1351},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s12103-020-09545-1},
	doi = {10.1007/s12103-020-09545-1},
	shorttitle = {Anti-Asian Hate Crime During the {COVID}-19 Pandemic},
	abstract = {Coronavirus Disease 2019 ({COVID}-19) is believed to have emerged in Wuhan, China in late December 2019 and began rapidly spreading around the globe throughout the spring months of 2020. As {COVID}-19 proliferated across the United States, Asian Americans reported a surge in racially motivated hate crimes involving physical violence and harassment. Throughout history, pandemic-related health crises have been associated with the stigmatization and “othering” of people of Asian descent. Asian Americans have experienced verbal and physical violence motivated by individual-level racism and xenophobia from the time they arrived in America in the late 1700s up until the present day. At the institutional level, the state has often implicitly reinforced, encouraged, and perpetuated this violence through bigoted rhetoric and exclusionary policies. {COVID}-19 has enabled the spread of racism and created national insecurity, fear of foreigners, and general xenophobia, which may be related to the increase in anti-Asian hate crimes during the pandemic. We examine how these crimes – situated in historically entrenched and intersecting individual-level and institutional-level racism and xenophobia – have operated to “other” Asian Americans and reproduce inequality.},
	pages = {647--667},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {American Journal of Criminal Justice},
	shortjournal = {Am J Crim Just},
	author = {Gover, Angela R. and Harper, Shannon B. and Langton, Lynn},
	urldate = {2021-10-13},
	date = {2020-08-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@online{noauthor_inbox_nodate,
	title = {Inbox (2) - rmk7@nyu.edu - New York University Mail},
	url = {https://mail.google.com/mail/u/1/#inbox},
	urldate = {2021-10-12},
}

@online{noauthor_inbox_nodate-1,
	title = {Inbox (2) - rmk7@nyu.edu - New York University Mail},
	url = {https://mail.google.com/mail/u/1/#inbox},
	urldate = {2021-10-12},
}

@article{mielenz_average_2017,
	title = {Average vs item response theory scores: an illustration using neighbourhood measures in relation to physical activity in adults with arthritis},
	volume = {142},
	issn = {1476-5616},
	doi = {10.1016/j.puhe.2016.08.016},
	shorttitle = {Average vs item response theory scores},
	abstract = {{OBJECTIVES}: Our study had two main objectives: 1) to determine whether perceived neighbourhood physical features are associated with physical activity levels in adults with arthritis; and 2) to determine whether the conclusions are more precise when item response theory ({IRT}) scores are used instead of average scores for the perceived neighbourhood physical features scales.
{METHODS}: Information on health outcomes, neighbourhood characteristics, and physical activity levels were collected using a telephone survey of 937 participants with self-reported arthritis. Neighbourhood walkability and aesthetic features and physical activity levels were measured by self-report. Adjusted proportional odds models were constructed separately for each neighbourhood physical features scale.
{RESULTS}: We found that among adults with arthritis, poorer perceived neighbourhood physical features (both walkability and aesthetics) are associated with decreased physical activity level compared to better perceived neighbourhood features. This association was only observed in our adjusted models when {IRT} scoring was employed with the neighbourhood physical feature scales (walkability scale: odds ratio [{OR}] 1.20, 95\% confidence interval [{CI}] 1.02, 1.41; aesthetics scale: {OR} 1.32, 95\% {CI} 1.09, 1.62), not when average scoring was used (walkability scale: {OR} 1.14, 95\% {CI} 1.00, 1.30; aesthetics scale: {OR} 1.16, 95\% {CI} 1.00, 1.36).
{CONCLUSION}: In adults with arthritis, those reporting poorer walking and aesthetics features were found to have decreased physical activity levels compared to those reporting better features when {IRT} scores were used, but not when using average scores. This study may inform public health physical environmental interventions implemented to increase physical activity, especially since arthritis prevalence is expected to be close to 20\% of the population in 2020. Based on {NIH} initiatives, future health research will utilize {IRT} scores. The differences found in this study may be a precursor for research on how past and future treatment effects may vary between these two types of measurement scores.},
	pages = {15--21},
	journaltitle = {Public Health},
	shortjournal = {Public Health},
	author = {Mielenz, T. J. and Callahan, L. F. and Edwards, M. C.},
	date = {2017-01},
	pmid = {28057192},
	keywords = {Aged, Arthritis, Average scores, Cross-Sectional Studies, Environment Design, Esthetics, Exercise, Female, Humans, Item response theory scores, Male, Middle Aged, North Carolina, Perceived neighbourhood physical features, Physical activity, Prevalence, Psychological Theory, Reproducibility of Results, Residence Characteristics, Walking},
}

@report{broockman_irregularities_2020,
	title = {Irregularities in {LaCour} (2014)},
	url = {https://osf.io/preprints/metaarxiv/qy2se/},
	abstract = {We report a number of irregularities in the replication dataset posted for {LaCour} and Green (Science, "When contact changes minds: An experiment on transmission of support for gay equality," 2014) that jointly suggest the dataset ({LaCour} 2014) was not collected as described. These irregularities include baseline outcome data that is statistically indistinguishable from a national survey and over-time changes that are unusually small and indistinguishable from perfectly normally distributed noise. Other elements of the dataset are inconsistent with patterns typical in randomized experiments and survey responses and/or inconsistent with the claimed design of the study. A straightforward procedure may generate these anomalies nearly exactly: for both studies reported in the paper, a random sample of the 2012 Cooperative Campaign Analysis Project ({CCAP}) form the baseline data and normally distributed noise are added to simulate follow-up waves.},
	institution = {{MetaArXiv}},
	author = {Broockman, David and Kalla, Joshua and Aronow, Peter Michael},
	urldate = {2021-09-20},
	date = {2020-01-07},
	doi = {10.31222/osf.io/qy2se},
	note = {type: article},
	keywords = {American Politics, Political Science, Social and Behavioral Sciences},
}

@report{kubinec_fear_2020,
	title = {Fear, Partisanship and the Spread of {COVID}-19 in the United States},
	url = {https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/jp4wk/},
	abstract = {In this paper we argue that the sociopolitical context of the {COVID}-19 pandemic is as important for understanding the spread of the disease as more conventional factors like social distancing policies and the capacity of the health care system. To do so, we analyze {COVID}-19 case and test data from the fifty United States during the first seven months on the pandemic. We also devise a Bayesian modeling approach for semi-parametric identification of the infection rate that permits us to undertake more sophisticated covariate adjustment than previous studies, incorporating mediation analysis to better understand why and how sociopolitical, economic and demographic factors affected different channels of transmission. Our results show that partisan identity is a powerful predictor of the spread of the disease by increasing dangerous mobility patterns and reducing people's fear of the pandemic.},
	institution = {{SocArXiv}},
	author = {Kubinec, Robert and Carvalho, Luiz and Barceló, Joan and Cheng, Cindy and Messerschmidt, Luca and Duba, Derek and Cottrell, Matthew Sean},
	urldate = {2021-09-14},
	date = {2020-04-01},
	doi = {10.31235/osf.io/jp4wk},
	note = {type: article},
	keywords = {Bayesian Methods, {COVID}-19, Coronavirus, Social Statistics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Stan},
}

@article{weinberg_comparing_2014,
	title = {Comparing data characteristics and results of an online factorial survey between a population-based and a crowdsource-recruited sample.},
	volume = {1},
	journaltitle = {Sociological Science},
	author = {Weinberg, Jill D. and Freese, Jeremy and {McElhattan}, David},
	date = {2014},
}

@incollection{akanbi_chapter_2015,
	location = {Boston},
	title = {Chapter 4 - Feature Extraction},
	isbn = {978-0-12-802927-5},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128029275000046},
	abstract = {This chapter extensively discusses the dataset preprocessing techniques and how the features are extracted from the dataset. It started off with an introductory chapter that also covers the structural overview of the sections in this chapter. The next section discusses the processing techniques introduced on the dataset followed by the feature extraction process, which includes the description of the extracted features. Furthermore, the verification of the data used is discussed in the following section that leads to the normalization technique used in the data processing. The normalization process prepares the dataset before introducing it to the classifiers for classification. Perhaps, the process of normalization seems trivial but this is not the case in context of the dataset used because of the ranges variation across the dataset. It becomes imminent for an unbiased classification to be carried out by the classifiers. Furthermore, the division of the dataset into three parts for training and testing to investigate the accuracy of the classifiers across different sizes of dataset is also discussed. In the concluding section of this chapter, a brief summary of the chapter’s objective is highlighted.},
	pages = {45--54},
	booktitle = {A Machine-Learning Approach to Phishing Detection and Defense},
	publisher = {Syngress},
	author = {Akanbi, Oluwatobi Ayodeji and Amiri, Iraj Sadegh and Fazeldehkordi, Elahe},
	editor = {Akanbi, Oluwatobi Ayodeji and Amiri, Iraj Sadegh and Fazeldehkordi, Elahe},
	urldate = {2021-09-14},
	date = {2015-01-01},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.1016/B978-0-12-802927-5.00004-6},
	keywords = {classification, dataset, feature extraction, nonphishing, phishing, preprocessing},
}

@online{noauthor_interactive_nodate,
	title = {Interactive visualization of Gaussian processes},
	url = {http://www.infinitecuriosity.org/vizgp/},
	urldate = {2021-09-08},
}

@online{noauthor_lay_nodate,
	title = {The Lay of the Land: Information Capacity and the Modern State - Thomas Brambor, Agustín Goenaga, Johannes Lindvall, Jan Teorell, 2020},
	url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0010414019843432},
	urldate = {2021-09-07},
}

@online{gilliland_why_2021,
	title = {Why can't we mandate anything?},
	url = {https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/570719-why-cant-we-mandate-anything},
	abstract = {Our research shows it's part of a broad global decline in how people see the legitimacy of apolitical, rational state bureaucracies.},
	titleaddon = {{TheHill}},
	type = {Text},
	author = {Gilliland, Donald},
	urldate = {2021-09-05},
	date = {2021-09-04},
	langid = {english},
}

@report{ricart-huguet_why_2021,
	location = {Rochester, {NY}},
	title = {Why Do Colonial Investments Persist Less in Anglophone than in Francophone Africa?},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3903537},
	abstract = {Comparisons of British and French colonialism in Africa have typically focused on institutions (e.g., directness of rule, forced labor, conscription) or the effect of those institutions on post-independence political reforms and development. Instead, this article focuses on colonial public investments in health and education in East and West Africa. I find that such investments are better predictors of today's development in Francophone than in Anglophone Africa. Why? While more political instability (e.g., violent conflict) should decrease persistence, I find---contrary to what might be expected---that Anglophone countries have not been more (or less) unstable since independence, as proxied by their number of coups, government turnovers, and constitutions. Instead, I suggest that the higher economic growth of Anglophone Africa in recent decades (compared to Francophone Africa) is one mechanism that erodes the persistence of colonial investments.},
	number = {{ID} 3903537},
	institution = {Social Science Research Network},
	type = {{SSRN} Scholarly Paper},
	author = {Ricart-Huguet, Joan},
	urldate = {2021-08-31},
	date = {2021-08-29},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{HPE}, colonialism, conflict, development, historical persistence, public investments, sub-Saharan Africa},
}

@online{noauthor_poverty_nodate,
	title = {Poverty, Inequality and Corruption: Explaining Variation in Educational Quality in Tunisia {\textbar} Wilson Center},
	url = {https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/poverty-inequality-and-corruption-explaining-variation-educational-quality-tunisia},
	shorttitle = {Poverty, Inequality and Corruption},
	urldate = {2021-08-26},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {education, inequality, tunisia},
}

@report{kubinec_statistically_2021,
	title = {Statistically Validated Indices for {COVID}-19 Public Health Policies},
	url = {https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/rn9xk/},
	abstract = {In this paper, we present new indices for government responses to {COVID}-19 within six policy areas crucial for understanding the drivers and effects of the pandemic: social distancing, schools, businesses, health monitoring, health resources and mask wearing. We create these measures from combining two of the most comprehensive {COVID}-19 datasets, the {CoronaNet} {COVID}-19 Government Response Event Dataset and the Oxford {COVID}-19 Government Response Tracker, using a Bayesian time-varying measurement model. Our daily indices track government responses for each of these policy areas from January 1st, 2020 to January 15th, 2021,  for over 180 countries. By using a statistical model to generate these indices, we are able to estimate uncertainty within the index and provide external validation for these two {COVID}-19 policy datasets, showing that though they represent distinct data sources, they show strong convergent validity. We further explore the correlation between these indices and a range of social, public health, political and economic covariates. Our results show that while business restrictions and social distancing restrictions are strongly associated with reduced general anxiety,  school restrictions are not. School restrictions are,  however, associated with higher rates of personal contact with people outside the home, higher levels of income inequality and bureaucratic corruption. Additionally, we find that female heads of state are more likely to implement a broad array of pandemic-related restrictions than male leaders.},
	institution = {{SocArXiv}},
	author = {Kubinec, Robert and Barceló, Joan and Goldszmidt, Rafael and Grujic, Vanja and Model, Timothy and Schenk, Caress and Cheng, Cindy and Hale, Thomas and Hartnett, Allison Spencer and Messerschmidt, Luca and Petherick, Anna and Thorvaldsdottir, Svanhildur},
	urldate = {2021-08-25},
	date = {2021-04-29},
	doi = {10.31235/osf.io/rn9xk},
	note = {type: article},
	keywords = {Bayesian Statistics, {COVID}-19, Comparative Politics, Measurement, Models and Methods, Political Science, Social Statistics, Social and Behavioral Sciences},
}

@article{paganelli_conceptual_2021,
	title = {A conceptual {IoT}-based early-warning architecture for remote monitoring of {COVID}-19 patients in wards and at home},
	issn = {2542-6605},
	url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8023791/},
	doi = {10.1016/j.iot.2021.100399},
	abstract = {Due to the {COVID}-19 pandemic, health services around the globe are struggling. An effective system for monitoring patients can improve healthcare delivery by avoiding in-person contacts, enabling early-detection of severe cases, and remotely assessing patients’ status. Internet of Things ({IoT}) technologies have been used for monitoring patients’ health with wireless wearable sensors in different scenarios and medical conditions, such as noncommunicable and infectious diseases. Combining {IoT}-related technologies with early-warning scores ({EWS}) commonly utilized in infirmaries has the potential to enhance health services delivery significantly. Specifically, the {NEWS}-2 has been showing remarkable results in detecting the health deterioration of {COVID}-19 patients. Although the literature presents several approaches for remote monitoring, none of these studies proposes a customized, complete, and integrated architecture that uses an effective early-detection mechanism for {COVID}-19 and that is flexible enough to be used in hospital wards and at home. Therefore, this article's objective is to present a comprehensive {IoT}-based conceptual architecture that addresses the key requirements of scalability, interoperability, network dynamics, context discovery, reliability, and privacy in the context of remote health monitoring of {COVID}-19 patients in hospitals and at home. Since remote monitoring of patients at home (essential during a pandemic) can engender trust issues regarding secure and ethical data collection, a consent management module was incorporated into our architecture to provide transparency and ensure data privacy. Further, the article details mechanisms for supporting a configurable and adaptable scoring system embedded in wearable devices to increase usefulness and flexibility for health care professions working with {EWS}.},
	pages = {100399},
	journaltitle = {Internet of Things},
	author = {Paganelli, Antonio Iyda and Velmovitsky, Pedro Elkind and Miranda, Pedro and Branco, Adriano and Alencar, Paulo and Cowan, Donald and Endler, Markus and Morita, Plinio Pelegrini},
	urldate = {2021-08-23},
	date = {2021-04-06},
	pmid = {null},
	pmcid = {PMC8023791},
}

@report{spiegel_business_2021,
	location = {Rochester, {NY}},
	title = {Business Restrictions and {COVID} Fatalities},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3725015},
	abstract = {We collect a time-series database of business and related restrictions for every county in the United States from March through December 2020.  We find strong and consistent evidence that employee mask policies, mask mandates for the general population, restaurant and bar closures, gym closures, and high-risk business closures reduce future fatality growth. Other business restrictions, such as second round closures of low- to medium- risk businesses and personal care/spa services, did not generate consistent evidence that they lowered fatality growth and may have been counterproductive.},
	number = {{ID} 3725015},
	institution = {Social Science Research Network},
	type = {{SSRN} Scholarly Paper},
	author = {Spiegel, Matthew I. and Tookes, Heather},
	urldate = {2021-08-23},
	date = {2021-04-23},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.2139/ssrn.3725015},
	keywords = {Business Restrictions and {COVID} Fatalities, Heather Tookes, Matthew I. Spiegel, {SSRN}},
}

@online{noauthor_mask_nodate,
	title = {Mask or no mask for {COVID}-19: A public health and market study},
	url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0237691},
	urldate = {2021-08-23},
}

@article{kruse_standards_2021,
	title = {Standards and political connections: Evidence from Tunisia},
	issn = {0304-3878},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387821001036},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102731},
	shorttitle = {Standards and political connections},
	abstract = {In this paper we investigate whether trade liberalization leads to more stringent product standards in a developing country context, uncovering the role that the connected firms’ market share plays in markets dominated by imports. We estimate a two-part model using data over the period from 2002 to 2010 to test whether additional product standards emerge in sectors where politically connected firms have a higher market share. Our main results show that the mechanisms we anticipated are in fact at play in Tunisia. During the implementation period of the {EU}-Tunisia association agreement, we find that sectors with a higher import share of connected firms —linked to the Ben Ali family— tend to have a higher probability of an increasing number of technical barriers to trade. This result is robust to addressing endogeneity issues and to the introduction of dynamics into the model.},
	pages = {102731},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Development Economics},
	shortjournal = {Journal of Development Economics},
	author = {Kruse, Hendrik W. and Martínez-Zarzoso, Inma and Baghdadi, Leila},
	urldate = {2021-08-23},
	date = {2021-08-17},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Development, Imports, Market power, {NTMs}, Political economy, Tunisia},
}

@online{noauthor_98_2021,
	title = {[98] Evidence of Fraud in an Influential Field Experiment About Dishonesty},
	url = {http://datacolada.org/98},
	abstract = {This post is co-authored with a team of researchers who have chosen to remain anonymous. They uncovered most of the evidence reported in this post. These researchers are not connected in any way to the papers described herein. *** In 2012, Shu, Mazar, Gino, Ariely, and Bazerman published a three-study paper in {PNAS} (.htm) reporting...},
	titleaddon = {Data Colada},
	urldate = {2021-08-17},
	date = {2021-08-17},
	langid = {american},
}

@article{pulejo_electoral_2021,
	title = {Electoral concerns reduce restrictive measures during the {COVID}-19 pandemic},
	volume = {198},
	issn = {0047-2727},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272721000232},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104387},
	abstract = {The outbreak of {COVID}-19 has called for swift action by governments, often involving the adoption of restrictive measures such as lockdowns. In this context, leaders have faced a trade-off between imposing stringent measures to limit the contagion, and minimizing the short-run costs on their national economy, which could impact their electoral prospects. Leveraging on both the timing of elections and the constitutional term limits faced by leaders in presidential systems, we document how incumbents who can run for re-election implement less stringent restrictions when the election is closer in time. The effect is driven by measures more likely to have a negative economic impact. This shows how electoral concerns help explain the observed differences in the response to the onset of the {COVID}-19 epidemic across different countries.},
	pages = {104387},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Public Economics},
	shortjournal = {Journal of Public Economics},
	author = {Pulejo, Massimo and Querubín, Pablo},
	urldate = {2021-08-16},
	date = {2021-06-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, Elections, Lockdown, Public health, Public policy, Restrictions},
}

@article{edgell_pandemic_2021,
	title = {Pandemic backsliding: Violations of democratic standards during Covid-19},
	volume = {285},
	issn = {0277-9536},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953621005761},
	doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114244},
	shorttitle = {Pandemic backsliding},
	abstract = {The widespread adoption of emergency powers during Covid-19 raises important questions about what constitutes a (un)democratic response to crises. While the institutions and practices of democracy during normal times are well established, democratic standards during emergencies have yet to be conceptualized in the literature. This makes it difficult to systematically answer questions like - How do states' responses to Covid-19 violate democratic standards? Do such violations make states' responses more effective? Drawing on international treaties, norms, and academic scholarship, we propose a novel conceptualization of democratic standards for emergency measures. We then identify which government responses to Covid-19 qualify as a violation of democratic standards within the framework of illiberal and authoritarian practices, introducing a dataset covering 144 countries from March 2020 onward. In this article, we provide an overview of the extent to which states violated democratic standards in their response to Covid-19 during 2020. We find no relationship between violations of democratic standards and reported Covid-19 mortality. Illiberal and authoritarian practices in response to the Covid-19 pandemic do not correlate with better public health outcomes. Rather, such crisis-driven violations should be carefully observed as they could signal autocratization.},
	pages = {114244},
	journaltitle = {Social Science \& Medicine},
	shortjournal = {Social Science \& Medicine},
	author = {Edgell, Amanda B. and Lachapelle, Jean and Lührmann, Anna and Maerz, Seraphine F.},
	urldate = {2021-08-16},
	date = {2021-09-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Autocratization, Covid-19, Crises, Mortality rates, Violations of democratic standards},
}

@report{kruse_optimal_2020,
	location = {Rochester, {NY}},
	title = {Optimal Control of an Epidemic through Social Distancing},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3583186},
	abstract = {We analyze how to optimally engage in social distancing ({SD}) in order to minimize the spread of an infectious disease. We identify conditions under which the optimal policy is single-peaked, i.e., ﬁrst engages in increasingly more social distancing and subsequently decreases its intensity. We show that the optimal policy might delay measures that decrease the transmission rate substantially to create “herd-immunity” and that engaging in social distancing sub-optimally early can increase the number of fatalities. Finally, we ﬁnd that optimal social distancing can be an eﬀective measure in substantially reducing the death rate of a disease.},
	number = {{ID} 3583186},
	institution = {Social Science Research Network},
	type = {{SSRN} Scholarly Paper},
	author = {Kruse, Thomas and Strack, Philipp},
	urldate = {2021-08-15},
	date = {2020-04-23},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.2139/ssrn.3583186},
	keywords = {{SIR} model, Social Distancing, Time-Optimal Control of an Epidemic},
}

@article{mandel_economic_2020,
	title = {The Economic Cost of {COVID} Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis},
	volume = {4},
	issn = {2511-1299},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s41885-020-00066-z},
	doi = {10.1007/s41885-020-00066-z},
	shorttitle = {The Economic Cost of {COVID} Lockdowns},
	abstract = {This paper estimates the cost of the lockdown of some sectors of the world economy in the wake of {COVID}-19. We develop a multi sector disequilibrium model with buyer-seller relations between agents located in different countries. The production network model allows us to study not only the direct cost of the lockdown but also indirect costs which emerge from the reductions in the availability of intermediate inputs. Agents determine the quantity of output and the proportions in which to combine inputs using prices that emerge from local interactions. The model is calibrated to the world economy using input-output data on 56 industries in 44 countries including all major economies. Within our model, the lockdowns are implemented as partial reductions in the output of some sectors using data on sectoral decomposition of capacity reductions. We use computational experiments to replicate the temporal sequence of the lockdowns implemented in different countries. World output falls by 7\% at the early stage of the crisis when only China is under lockdown and by 23\% at the peak of the crisis when many countries are under a lockdown. These direct impacts are amplified as the shock propagates through the world economy because of the buyer-seller relations. Supply-chain spillovers are capable of amplifying the direct impact by more than two folds. Naturally, the substitutability between intermediate inputs is a major determinant of the amplification. We also study the process of economic recovery following the end of the lockdowns. Price flexibility and minor technological adaptations help in reducing the time it takes for the economy to recover. The world economy takes about one quarter to move towards the new equilibrium in the optimistic and unlikely scenario of the end of all lockdowns. Recovery time is likely to be significantly greater if partial lockdowns persist.},
	pages = {431--451},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Economics of Disasters and Climate Change},
	shortjournal = {{EconDisCliCha}},
	author = {Mandel, Antoine and Veetil, Vipin},
	urldate = {2021-08-15},
	date = {2020-10-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@incollection{van_der_linden_item_1997,
	location = {New York, {NY}},
	title = {Item Response Theory: Brief History, Common Models, and Extensions},
	isbn = {978-1-4757-2691-6},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2691-6_1},
	shorttitle = {Item Response Theory},
	abstract = {Long experience with measurement instruments such as thermometers, yardsticks, and speedometers may have left the impression that measurement instruments are physical devices providing measurements that can be read directly off a numerical scale. This impression is certainly not valid for educational and psychological tests. A useful way to view a test is as a series of small experiments in which the tester records a vector of responses by the testee. These responses are not direct measurements, but provide the data from which measurements can be inferred.},
	pages = {1--28},
	booktitle = {Handbook of Modern Item Response Theory},
	publisher = {Springer},
	author = {van der Linden, Wim J. and Hambleton, Ronald K.},
	editor = {van der Linden, Wim J. and Hambleton, Ronald K.},
	urldate = {2021-08-12},
	date = {1997},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.1007/978-1-4757-2691-6_1},
	keywords = {Classical Test Theory, Item Parameter, Item Response Theory, Item Response Theory Model, Test Theory},
}

@incollection{kurz_missing_2020,
	title = {Missing Data and Other Opportunities},
	url = {https://bookdown.org/ajkurz/Statistical_Rethinking_recoded/missing-data-and-other-opportunities.html},
	abstract = {This project is an attempt to re-express the code in {McElreath}’s textbook. His models are re-fit in brms, plots are redone with ggplot2, and the general data wrangling code predominantly follows the tidyverse style.},
	booktitle = {Statistical Rethinking with brms, ggplot2, and the tidyverse},
	author = {Kurz, A. Solomon},
	urldate = {2021-08-11},
	date = {2020},
}

@online{noauthor_political_nodate,
	title = {Political Institutions under Dictatorship},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/political-institutions-under-dictatorship/6E5AE062B796609E2AC72EE5AB5F9DA0},
	urldate = {2021-08-01},
}

@book{jones_bedouins_2017,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {Bedouins into Bourgeois: Remaking Citizens for Globalization},
	isbn = {978-1-107-17572-3},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/bedouins-into-bourgeois/E13C0A33D662B6EF9E4B3FC7FCC31547},
	shorttitle = {Bedouins into Bourgeois},
	abstract = {How are state leaders adapting their citizen-building strategies for globalization? What outcomes are they achieving, and why? Bedouins into Bourgeois investigates an ambitious state-led social engineering campaign in the United Arab Emirates, where leaders aimed to encourage more entrepreneurial, market-friendly, patriotic, and civic-minded citizens. Extensive ethnography - including interviews with a ruling monarch - reveals the rulers' reasoning and goals for social engineering. Through surveys and experiments, social engineering outcomes are examined, as well as the reasons for these outcomes, with surprising results. This fascinating study illustrates how social engineering strategies that use nationalism to motivate citizens can have paradoxical effects, increasing patriotism but unexpectedly discouraging or “crowding out” development-friendly mind-sets.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Jones, Calvert W.},
	urldate = {2021-07-20},
	date = {2017},
	doi = {10.1017/9781316800010},
}

@collection{beblawi_rentier_2015,
	location = {London},
	title = {The Rentier State},
	isbn = {978-1-315-68486-4},
	abstract = {This volume, first published in 1987, is devoted to a discussion of interrelations of the economic base with the cultural, social and political structures, and of its impact on the state. The ‘rentier states’ of the Middle East, which derive a substantial part of their revenue from foreign sources in the form of rent, largely oil revenues, face the same basic problem, the challenge of transforming their economies to give increased strength to productive activity and rely on its progress to increase state revenue from domestic sources. This book, Volume Two in the Nation, State and Integration in the Arab World research project carried out by the Istituto Affari Internazionali, examine the issue of the modernization of rentier states’ public finance, which may well entail important modifications in their domestic politics.},
	pagetotal = {256},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	editor = {Beblawi, Hazem and Luciani, Giacomo},
	date = {2015-07-30},
	doi = {10.4324/9781315684864},
	keywords = {rentier},
}

@article{korhonen_comparison_2017,
	title = {Comparison of Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 in the estimation of boreal forest canopy cover and leaf area index},
	volume = {195},
	issn = {0034-4257},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425717301256},
	doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2017.03.021},
	abstract = {We present the first comparison of Sentinel-2A (S2) {MSI} (Multi-Spectral Instrument) and Landsat 8 (L8) {OLI} (Operational Land Imager) data in the retrieval of forest canopy cover ({CC}), effective canopy cover ({ECC}), and leaf area index ({LAI}). We used S2 and L8 images obtained from Suonenjoki, Finland on 17 and 22 August 2015, respectively. A combination of airborne lidar data and field plots was used to calculate {CC}, {ECC} and {LAI} for a set of 746 systematically placed lidar plots. Generalized additive models were used to link these variables with various types of spectral indices. Our results indicated that instead of using the native image resolution, the model accuracies were better for 60 m lidar plots comprising of nine (S2) or four (L8) image pixels. The best-case absolute root mean square errors of prediction ({RMSEPs}) (relative {RMSEPs} shown in parentheses) obtained from ten-fold cross validation of multivariate models for S2 {CC}, {ECC} and {LAI} were 0.126 (24.0\%), 0.100 (20.8\%), and 0.596 (19.6\%), respectively. For L8, the corresponding {RMSEPs} were 0.128 (24.5\%), 0.108 (22.4\%), and 0.614 (20.2\%). The marginally better performance of S2 models may be related to the 705 nm red edge band, which frequently occurred among the selected predictors. When testing indices that used bands available for both sensors, there were no systematic differences between S2 and L8.},
	pages = {259--274},
	journaltitle = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
	shortjournal = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
	author = {Korhonen, Lauri and {Hadi} and Packalen, Petteri and Rautiainen, Miina},
	urldate = {2021-06-30},
	date = {2017-06-15},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Biophysical, Canopy cover, Landsat, Leaf area index, Sentinel-2, beta regression},
}

@article{cullender_innate_2013,
	title = {Innate and Adaptive Immunity Interact to Quench Microbiome Flagellar Motility in the Gut},
	volume = {14},
	issn = {1931-3128},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1931312813003715},
	doi = {10.1016/j.chom.2013.10.009},
	abstract = {Gut mucosal barrier breakdown and inflammation have been associated with high levels of flagellin, the principal bacterial flagellar protein. Although several gut commensals can produce flagella, flagellin levels are low in the healthy gut, suggesting the existence of control mechanisms. We find that mice lacking the flagellin receptor Toll-like receptor 5 ({TLR}5) exhibit a profound loss of flagellin-specific immunoglobulins (Igs) despite higher total Ig levels in the gut. Ribotyping of {IgA}-coated cecal microbiota showed Proteobacteria evading antibody coating in the {TLR}5−/− gut. A diversity of microbiome members overexpressed flagellar genes in the {TLR}5−/− host. Proteobacteria and Firmicutes penetrated small intestinal villi, and flagellated bacteria breached the colonic mucosal barrier. In vitro, flagellin-specific Ig inhibited bacterial motility and downregulated flagellar gene expression. Thus, innate-immunity-directed development of flagellin-specific adaptive immune responses can modulate the microbiome’s production of flagella in a three-way interaction that helps to maintain mucosal barrier integrity and homeostasis.},
	pages = {571--581},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {Cell Host \& Microbe},
	shortjournal = {Cell Host \& Microbe},
	author = {Cullender, Tyler C. and Chassaing, Benoit and Janzon, Anders and Kumar, Krithika and Muller, Catherine E. and Werner, Jeffrey J. and Angenent, Largus T. and Bell, M. Elizabeth and Hay, Anthony G. and Peterson, Daniel A. and Walter, Jens and Vijay-Kumar, Matam and Gewirtz, Andrew T. and Ley, Ruth E.},
	urldate = {2021-06-30},
	date = {2013-11-13},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {beta regression},
}

@report{kubinec_statistically_2021-1,
	title = {Statistically Validated Indices for {COVID}-19 Public Health Policies},
	url = {https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/rn9xk/},
	abstract = {In this paper, we present new indices for government responses to {COVID}-19 within six policy areas crucial for understanding the drivers and effects of the pandemic: social distancing, schools, businesses, health monitoring, health resources and mask wearing. We create these measures from combining two of the most comprehensive {COVID}-19 datasets, the {CoronaNet} {COVID}-19 Government Response Event Dataset and the Oxford {COVID}-19 Government Response Tracker, using a Bayesian time-varying measurement model. Our daily indices track government responses for each of these policy areas from January 1st, 2020 to January 15th, 2021,  for over 180 countries. By using a statistical model to generate these indices, we are able to estimate uncertainty within the index and provide external validation for these two {COVID}-19 policy datasets, showing that though they represent distinct data sources, they show strong convergent validity. We further explore the correlation between these indices and a range of social, public health, political and economic covariates. Our results show that while business restrictions and social distancing restrictions are strongly associated with reduced general anxiety,  school restrictions are not. School restrictions are,  however, associated with higher rates of personal contact with people outside the home, higher levels of income inequality and bureaucratic corruption. Additionally, we find that female heads of state are more likely to implement a broad array of pandemic-related restrictions than male leaders.},
	institution = {{SocArXiv}},
	author = {Kubinec, Robert and Barceló, Joan and Goldszmidt, Rafael and Grujic, Vanja and Model, Timothy and Schenk, Caress and Cheng, Cindy and Hale, Thomas and Hartnett, Allison Spencer and Messerschmidt, Luca and Petherick, Anna and Thorvaldsdottir, Svanhildur},
	urldate = {2021-06-30},
	date = {2021-04-29},
	doi = {10.31235/osf.io/rn9xk},
	note = {type: article},
	keywords = {Bayesian Statistics, {COVID}-19, Comparative Politics, Measurement, Models and Methods, Political Science, Social Statistics, Social and Behavioral Sciences},
}

@article{fails_fuel_2019,
	title = {Fuel Subsidies Limit Democratization: Evidence from a Global Sample, 1990–2014},
	volume = {63},
	issn = {0020-8833},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqy061},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqy061},
	shorttitle = {Fuel Subsidies Limit Democratization},
	abstract = {Oil wealth tends to impede democracy, but scholars disagree about both why and under what conditions. This note helps answer these questions by evaluating the field's foundational theory of the rentier state, which claims that oil wealth finances generous societal benefits that reduce citizens’ demands for representation and hinder the emergence of democratic regimes. I create a new measure of such benefits, focusing specifically on the size of domestic gasoline subsidies in dollars per capita. I then use a global sample from 1990 through 2014 to demonstrate that greater spending on these subsidies significantly reduces the likelihood of a transition toward democracy. The impact on democratization is as consequential in practical terms as are large increases in the rate of economic growth. Moreover, including the measure of fuel subsidies helps account for the autocratic effect of oil income. I conclude by highlighting how this fuel subsidy data can shed light on a number of other political economy questions.},
	pages = {354--363},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {International Studies Quarterly},
	shortjournal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Fails, Matthew D},
	urldate = {2021-06-28},
	date = {2019-06-01},
	keywords = {rentier},
}

@article{weigel_participation_2020,
	title = {The Participation Dividend of Taxation: How Citizens in Congo Engage More with the State When it Tries to Tax Them*},
	volume = {135},
	issn = {0033-5533},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjaa019},
	doi = {10.1093/qje/qjaa019},
	shorttitle = {The Participation Dividend of Taxation},
	abstract = {This article provides evidence from a fragile state that citizens demand more of a voice in the government when it tries to tax them. I examine a field experiment randomizing property tax collection across 356 neighborhoods of a large Congolese city. The tax campaign was the first time most citizens had been registered by the state or asked to pay formal taxes. It raised property tax compliance from 0.1\% in control to 11.6\% in treatment. It also increased political participation by about 5 percentage points (31\%): citizens in taxed neighborhoods were more likely to attend town hall meetings hosted by the government or submit evaluations of its performance. To participate in these ways, the average citizen incurred costs equal to their daily household income, and treated citizens spent 43\% more than control. Treated citizens also positively updated about the provincial government, perceiving more revenue, less leakage, and a greater responsibility to provide public goods. The results suggest that broadening the tax base has a “participation dividend,” a key idea in historical accounts of the emergence of inclusive governance in early modern Europe and a common justification for donor support of tax programs in weak states.},
	pages = {1849--1903},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	shortjournal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics},
	author = {Weigel, Jonathan L},
	urldate = {2021-06-28},
	date = {2020-11-01},
	keywords = {rentier},
}

@book{morrison_nontaxation_2014,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {Nontaxation and Representation: The Fiscal Foundations of Political Stability},
	isbn = {978-1-107-07677-8},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/nontaxation-and-representation/E619CF597D11E7537105A09A7FEA85C4},
	series = {Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics},
	shorttitle = {Nontaxation and Representation},
	abstract = {Does oil make countries autocratic? Can foreign aid make countries democratic? Does taxation lead to representation? In this book, Kevin M. Morrison develops a novel argument about how government revenues of all kinds affect political regimes and their leaders. Contrary to conventional wisdom, Morrison illustrates that taxation leads to instability, not representation. With this insight, he extends his award-winning work on nontax revenues to encompass foreign aid, oil revenue, and intergovernmental grants and shows that they lead to decreased taxation, increased government spending, and increased political stability. Looking at the stability of democracies and dictatorships as well as leadership transitions within those regimes, Morrison incorporates cross-national statistical methods, formal modeling, a quasi-experiment, and case studies of Brazil, Kenya and Mexico to build his case. This book upends many common hypotheses and policy recommendations, providing the most comprehensive treatment of revenue and political stability to date.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Morrison, Kevin M.},
	urldate = {2021-06-28},
	date = {2014},
	doi = {10.1017/CBO9781139924634},
	keywords = {rentier},
}

@report{martinez_sources_2019,
	location = {Rochester, {NY}},
	title = {Sources of Revenue and Government Performance: Evidence from Colombia},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3273001},
	shorttitle = {Sources of Revenue and Government Performance},
	abstract = {I study whether governments financed through taxes are better governed than those relying on non-tax revenue. Focusing on Colombian municipalities, I leverage variation in property tax revenue and natural resource royalties arising from cadastral updates and fluctuations in the world price of oil. Additional tax revenue has a larger effect than a same-sized increase to oil royalties on local public goods in the areas of education, health and water, despite earmarking of royalties for this purpose. Higher tax revenue also reduces the probability of a disciplinary prosecution against the municipal mayor, while the opposite is true for royalties.},
	number = {{ID} 3273001},
	institution = {Social Science Research Network},
	type = {{SSRN} Scholarly Paper},
	author = {Martinez, Luis R.},
	urldate = {2021-06-28},
	date = {2019-09-26},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.2139/ssrn.3273001},
	keywords = {accountability, corruption, governance, natural resource curse, public goods, rentier, taxation},
}

@book{prichard_taxation_2015,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {Taxation, Responsiveness and Accountability in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Dynamics of Tax Bargaining},
	isbn = {978-1-107-11086-1},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/taxation-responsiveness-and-accountability-in-subsaharan-africa/FB29D1D344E94A7E34FA29B449D14215},
	shorttitle = {Taxation, Responsiveness and Accountability in Sub-Saharan Africa},
	abstract = {It is increasingly argued that bargaining between citizens and governments over tax collection can provide a foundation for the development of responsive and accountable governance in developing countries. However, while intuitively attractive, surprisingly little research has captured the reality and complexity of this relationship in practice. This book provides the most complete treatment of the connections between taxation and accountability in developing countries, providing both new evidence and an invaluable starting point for future research. Drawing on cross-country econometric evidence and detailed case studies from Ghana, Kenya and Ethiopia, Wilson Prichard shows that reliance on taxation has, in fact, increased responsiveness and accountability by expanding the political power wielded by taxpayers. Critically, however, processes of tax bargaining have been highly varied, frequently long term and contextually contingent. Capturing this diversity provides novel insight into politics in developing countries and how tax reform can be designed to encourage broader governance gains.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Prichard, Wilson},
	urldate = {2021-06-28},
	date = {2015},
	doi = {10.1017/CBO9781316275511},
	keywords = {rentier},
}

@online{noauthor_arab_nodate,
	title = {The Arab Spring},
	url = {https://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780199756223/obo-9780199756223-0337.xml},
	abstract = {"The Arab Spring" published on  by null.},
	titleaddon = {obo},
	urldate = {2021-06-24},
	langid = {english},
}

@software{fisher_bayesian_2020,
	title = {Bayesian concentration-response modelling using {jagsNEC}},
	url = {https://zenodo.org/record/3966864},
	abstract = {https://github.com/open-{AIMS}/{NEC}-estimation/tree/v1.0},
	publisher = {Zenodo},
	author = {Fisher, Rebecca and Ricardo, Gerard and Fox, David},
	urldate = {2021-06-24},
	date = {2020-07-30},
	doi = {10.5281/zenodo.3966864},
	keywords = {Bayesian modelling, No-effect-concentration, concentration-response, dose-response, ecotoxicology, threshold derivation},
}

@online{noauthor_preview_nodate,
	title = {Preview},
	url = {https://zenodo.org/record/3966864/preview/open-AIMS/NEC-estimation-v1.0.zip},
	urldate = {2021-06-24},
}

@article{sung_democracy_2004,
	title = {Democracy and political corruption: A cross-national comparison},
	volume = {41},
	issn = {1573-0751},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CRIS.0000016225.75792.02},
	doi = {10.1023/B:CRIS.0000016225.75792.02},
	shorttitle = {Democracy and political corruption},
	abstract = {Past research on democracy and politicalcorruption produced mixed results becauseof differences in sampling and analyticalmethods. Moreover, an important shortcominghas been researchers' focus on detectinglinear effects alone. In the current study,I statistically controlled for potentiallyconfounding economic factors and usedhierarchical polynomial regression toevaluate the form of thedemocracy-corruption relationship. Resultsshowed that a cubic function best fittedthe data. Despite eruptions of corruptionamong intermediate democracies, theconsolidation of advanced democraticinstitutions eventually reduced corruption.Ultimately, the initial politicalconditions and the final democraticachievements determined the magnitude ofpolitical corruption in a country.},
	pages = {179--193},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Crime, Law and Social Change},
	shortjournal = {Crime, Law and Social Change},
	author = {Sung, H.-E.},
	urldate = {2021-06-15},
	date = {2004-03-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{moran_democratic_2001,
	title = {Democratic transitions and forms of corruption},
	volume = {36},
	issn = {1573-0751},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1012072301648},
	doi = {10.1023/A:1012072301648},
	abstract = {Any transition to democracy has implications for corruption. This papertakes a contextual and procesual approach to the analysis ofdemocratisation and corruption. It disaggregates some variables wherebydemocratisation can provide the context for the development of corruptionand crime. This paper does not argue democratisation causescorruption and crime. Nor does it argue democratisation does not providethe social space for the reduction of corruption and crime. This paperconcentrates on the areas in which democratisation provides an oftencomplex environment for the development of corruption and crime.},
	pages = {379--393},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Crime, Law and Social Change},
	shortjournal = {Crime, Law and Social Change},
	author = {Moran, J.},
	urldate = {2021-06-15},
	date = {2001-12-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@online{noauthor_fractional_nodate,
	title = {Fractional Response Models - A Replication Exercise of Papke and Wooldridge (1996) by Harald Oberhofer, Michael Pfaffermayr :: {SSRN}},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2179865},
	urldate = {2021-06-14},
	keywords = {fractional logit},
}

@book{noauthor_carbon_nodate,
	title = {Carbon taxation as a tool for sustainable development in the {MENA} region : Potentials and future directions},
	isbn = {978-1-00-304410-9},
	url = {https://www.taylorfrancis.com/https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003044109-13/carbon-taxation-tool-sustainable-development-mena-region-alexander-ezenagu},
	shorttitle = {Carbon taxation as a tool for sustainable development in the {MENA} region},
	abstract = {Two of the most canvassed policy options for combating climate change and advancing sustainable development across the world are the use of carbon tax and},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	urldate = {2021-06-03},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.4324/9781003044109-13},
	note = {Pages: 187-203
Publication Title: Climate Change Law and Policy in the Middle East and North Africa Region},
}

@report{agrawal_ai_2021,
	title = {{AI} Adoption and System-Wide Change},
	url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w28811},
	abstract = {Founded in 1920, the {NBER} is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.},
	number = {w28811},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Agrawal, Ajay K. and Gans, Joshua S. and Goldfarb, Avi},
	urldate = {2021-05-23},
	date = {2021-05-17},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.3386/w28811},
}

@online{noauthor_tunisian_nodate,
	title = {The Tunisian Startup Act - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace},
	url = {https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/76685},
	urldate = {2021-05-16},
}

@article{sidrat_entrepreneurship_nodate,
	title = {Entrepreneurship in Tunisia: Obstacles},
	abstract = {Entrepreneurship is considered as a source of wealth creation, economic growth, social progress, and technological development. The current paper seeks to shed light on obstacles that are impeding business creators to start their businesses. To identify the observed constraints, we developed a questionnaire that we addressed to 120 new entrepreneurs drawing on the theoretical and empirical literature.},
	pages = {8},
	author = {Sidrat, Sawsen and Amouri, Abdellatif and Boujelbene, Younes and Boudabbous, Sami},
	langid = {english},
}

@online{ribica_three_2021,
	title = {Three Reasons Why {VCs} Should Be Investing in Tunisian Startups},
	url = {https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/364944},
	abstract = {Despite being a small market in itself, the Tunisian {VC} opportunity should not be overlooked.},
	titleaddon = {Entrepreneur},
	author = {Ribica, Selma},
	urldate = {2021-05-16},
	date = {2021-02-08},
	langid = {english},
}

@online{noauthor_facebook_nodate,
	title = {Facebook advertisement},
	url = {https://docs.google.com/document/u/1/d/1gGjckqcHfo4jyG2dd94c86IogJSARVxoWK5cnVZq_VM/edit?usp=embed_facebook},
	titleaddon = {Google Docs},
	urldate = {2021-05-16},
	langid = {english},
}

@online{noauthor_slack_nodate,
	title = {Slack {\textbar} working\_paper\_coronanet {\textbar} corona-govt-response {\textbar} 100 new items},
	url = {https://app.slack.com/client/T010PHG8J6A/G0111G960J2/thread/C010UT8LDEF-1586167583.090600},
	urldate = {2021-05-15},
}

@article{noauthor_entrepreneurial_nodate,
	title = {Entrepreneurial Pedagogy, Incubator Use and Student Innovative Capability in Institutions of Higher Education, Kenya {\textbar} African Journal of Education,Science and Technology},
	url = {http://www.ajest.info/index.php/ajest/article/view/535},
	abstract = {Innovativeness has become one of the most celebrated concepts of our era. The fields of academics are looking into how members of societies and organizations may be inspired and empowered into creation of innovation. Student innovative capability in institutions of higher education is presumed to be anchored on entrepreneurial pedagogy. However, entrepreneurial pedagogical methods have not been exhaustively investigated in terms of contribution to student innovative capability and the paper analyzed the influence of problem-based learning, competence-based learning, direct learning and case study-based learning approaches on student innovative capabilities. The study was guided by the Social cognitive theory, Schumpeterian theory of economics and the componential theory of creativity. An explanatory research design was employed. This study targeted 1545 fourth year finalists taking entrepreneurship as their major discipline in the sampled institutions in Nairobi County. Proportionate stratified sampling and simple random sampling techniques were used to select a sample of 380 respondents. Questionnaires were the main data collection instruments in the study. Results were presented using descriptive and inferential analytical technique. Multiple regression was used to test hypotheses of the study. Results showed that problem-based, case study and direct learning significantly affected students’ innovative capabilities. The paper recommends that institutions of higher education, should adopt policies that take into account, case study, problem based, direct and competence-based learning approaches to enhance innovative capability of students},
	urldate = {2021-05-13},
	langid = {american},
}

@article{steinert-threlkeld_how_2021,
	title = {How State and Protester Violence Affect Protest Dynamics},
	url = {https://preprints.apsanet.org/engage/apsa/article-details/60931fa9876e6e3c474158d6},
	doi = {10.33774/apsa-2019-bv6zd-v3},
	abstract = {How do state and protester violence affect whether protests grow or shrink? Previous research finds conflicting results for how violence affects protest dynamics. This paper argues that expectations and emotions should generate an n-shaped relationship between the severity of state repression and changes in protest size the next day. Protester violence should reduce the appeal of protesting and increase the expected cost of protesting, decreasing subsequent protest size. Since testing this argument requires precise measurements, a pipeline is built that applies convolutional neural networks to images shared in geolocated tweets. Continuously valued estimates of state and protester violence are generated per city-day for 24 cities across five countries, as are estimates of protest size and the age and gender of protesters. The results suggest a solution to the repression-dissent puzzle and join a growing body of research benefiting from the use of social media to understand subnational conflict.},
	author = {Steinert-Threlkeld, Zachary and Chan, Alexander and Joo, Jungseock},
	urldate = {2021-05-10},
	date = {2021-05-07},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{ansani_about_2012,
	title = {About a Revolution: The Economic Motivations of the Arab Spring},
	volume = {2},
	url = {https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2010269012500135},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {International Journal of Development and Conflict},
	author = {Ansani, Andrea and Daniele, Vittorio},
	urldate = {2021-05-06},
	date = {2012},
}

@book{stokes_brokers_2013,
	title = {Brokers, voters, and clientelism: The puzzle of distributive politics},
	isbn = {1-107-04220-8},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Stokes, Susan C. and Dunning, Thad and Nazareno, Marcelo and Brusco, Valeria},
	date = {2013},
}

@book{sayan_economic_2009,
	title = {Economic performance in the Middle East and North Africa: institutions, corruption and reform},
	isbn = {1-134-07221-X},
	publisher = {Routledge},
	author = {Sayan, Serdar},
	date = {2009},
}

@report{bhattacharya_constraints_2010,
	location = {Rochester, {NY}},
	title = {Constraints on Trade in the {MENA} Region},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1555483},
	abstract = {In this paper we estimate gravity models to see whether trade volumes of countries in the {MENA} region are significantly lower than what would be expected given their economic, cultural and geographical characteristics. Our empirical results show that the variables used in standard gravity models cannot explain a significant part of {MENA}'s trade performance, particularly on exports. We then go on to 'augment' the standard gravity model with relevant variables from the World Bank's Business Enterprise surveys. Our results further show that these variables, and in particular transport constraints and inefficiencies in customs clearance processes, are important in explaining the {MENA} region's underperformance in trade.},
	number = {{ID} 1555483},
	institution = {Social Science Research Network},
	type = {{SSRN} Scholarly Paper},
	author = {Bhattacharya, Rina and Wolde, Hirut},
	urldate = {2021-05-04},
	date = {2010-02-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Constraints on Trade in the {MENA} Region, Hirut Wolde, Rina Bhattacharya, {SSRN}},
}

@report{bhattacharya_constraints_2010-1,
	location = {Rochester, {NY}},
	title = {Constraints on Growth in the {MENA} Region},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=1555482},
	abstract = {In this paper we contribute to the empirical literature on growth in the {MENA} region by attempting to quantify the impact of the various constraints faced by local businesses highlighted by the World Bank’s Business Enterprise surveys. To the best of our knowledge this dataset has not been used in any empirical analysis looking at the main constraints on growth in the {MENA} region. Our empirical results suggest that the key direct constraints to growth in the {MENA} region are difficulties in access to finance, labor skill mismatches and shortages, and electricity constraints.},
	number = {{ID} 1555482},
	institution = {Social Science Research Network},
	type = {{SSRN} Scholarly Paper},
	author = {Bhattacharya, Rina and Wolde, Hirut},
	urldate = {2021-05-04},
	date = {2010-02-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Constraints on Growth in the {MENA} Region, Hirut Wolde, Rina Bhattacharya, {SSRN}},
}

@article{cinelli_generalizing_2021,
	title = {Generalizing experimental results by leveraging knowledge of mechanisms},
	volume = {36},
	issn = {1573-7284},
	doi = {10.1007/s10654-020-00687-4},
	abstract = {We show how experimental results can be generalized across diverse populations by leveraging knowledge of local mechanisms that produce the outcome of interest, only some of which may differ in the target domain. We use structural causal models and a refined version of selection diagrams to represent such knowledge, and to decide whether it entails the invariance of probabilities of causation across populations, which then enables generalization. We further provide: (i) bounds for the target effect when some of these conditions are violated; (ii) new identification results for probabilities of causation and the transported causal effect when trials from multiple source domains are available; as well as (iii) a Bayesian approach for estimating the transported causal effect from finite samples. We illustrate these methods both with simulated data and with a real example that transports the effects of Vitamin A supplementation on childhood mortality across different regions.},
	pages = {149--164},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {European Journal of Epidemiology},
	shortjournal = {Eur J Epidemiol},
	author = {Cinelli, Carlos and Pearl, Judea},
	date = {2021-02},
	pmid = {33070298},
	keywords = {Causal inference, Causality, Generalizability, Generalization, Psychological, Humans, Knowledge, Mechanisms, Probability, Probability of causation, Research Design, Transportability},
}

@article{raza_institutional_2020,
	title = {Institutional adversity, external knowledge sources, and new ventures' innovation: An institutional polycentrism theory perspective},
	volume = {90},
	issn = {0019-8501},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0019850119303700},
	doi = {10.1016/j.indmarman.2020.03.018},
	shorttitle = {Institutional adversity, external knowledge sources, and new ventures' innovation},
	abstract = {Why do some new ventures thrive while others fail? In this study, we investigate the unique relationship between external knowledge sourcing of new ventures and its innovative outcomes, and its contextual embeddedness. The investigation is based on the Knowledge-based view and theory of institutional polycentrism across entrepreneurs, nested in different institutional contexts. Our framework generates hypothesis about the negative impact of higher levels of institutional adversity, on new venture's innovation at the national level. We then found the contingent role of adversity in institutions based on the relationship between external knowledge sourcing and new venture innovation. We examine this question using data from 28,660 entrepreneurs from 47 countries. We use Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, Freedom House, {IEF}, {POLCON} and Political Risk Services data for 2009–2013. We apply multilevel estimation framework to test our hypotheses. We find the new ventures that have high level of external knowledge sourcing tend to be more innovative: the ones that search widely through different external sources. Further, we find that the benefits to external knowledge sourcing depend on institutional environmental conditions, however new venture innovation should ensure the external knowledge sourcing are used robustly to develop a resource mechanism to deal with the institutional adversity.},
	pages = {633--647},
	journaltitle = {Industrial Marketing Management},
	shortjournal = {Industrial Marketing Management},
	author = {Raza, Ali and Saeed, Saadat and Yousafzai, Shumaila and Shahid, Muhammad Umer and Muffatto, Moreno},
	urldate = {2021-04-28},
	date = {2020-10-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{fredstrom_country-level_2020,
	title = {A country-level institutional perspective on entrepreneurship productivity: The effects of informal economy and regulation},
	issn = {0883-9026},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0883902618308929},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jbusvent.2020.106002},
	shorttitle = {A country-level institutional perspective on entrepreneurship productivity},
	abstract = {Developing the concept of institutional incongruence and employing panel data from 60 countries, we outline an alternative view of the informal economy and the effects of regulative institutions on entrepreneurship productivity. We find evidence that the informal economy's size is, largely, negatively associated with entrepreneurship productivity, and that in the presence of a large informal economy, governmental efforts to improve governance quality can be counterproductive. Our results suggest policy interventions aimed at changing institutions to practice formal entrepreneurship should be implemented cautiously to avoid inducing institutional incongruence.},
	pages = {106002},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Business Venturing},
	shortjournal = {Journal of Business Venturing},
	author = {Fredström, Ashkan and Peltonen, Juhana and Wincent, Joakim},
	urldate = {2021-04-28},
	date = {2020-02-21},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Entrepreneurship productivity, Informal economy, Institutional incongruence, Necessity-driven entrepreneurship, Opportunity-driven entrepreneurship, Regulative institutions},
}

@article{anokhin_start-up_2012,
	title = {Start-up rates and innovation: A cross-country examination},
	volume = {43},
	issn = {1478-6990},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1057/jibs.2011.47},
	doi = {10.1057/jibs.2011.47},
	shorttitle = {Start-up rates and innovation},
	abstract = {Despite the widespread assumptions of the positive relationship between start-up rates and innovation, the empirical support for this conjecture in the cross-country context is largely lacking. We draw upon recent advances in the entrepreneurship literature to propose that the relationship between start-up rates and innovation is not uniformly positive, as expected by the early scholars of entrepreneurship, but instead depends on the country's stage of development. The relationship is positive in the developed countries, but negative in countries in early development stages. On balance, there is a weak negative association between start-up rates and innovation. We test our hypotheses on a multi-source dataset that covers 35 countries over the period from 1996 to 2002. The relationships are robust to the choice of three moderators and two dependent variables, as well as a number of post-hoc tests. Our findings indicate that broad-strokes policy efforts that aim at promotion of entrepreneurship as a means to boost country innovativeness may be misguided, and instead suggest a contingency approach.},
	pages = {41--60},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Journal of International Business Studies},
	shortjournal = {J Int Bus Stud},
	author = {Anokhin, Sergey and Wincent, Joakim},
	urldate = {2021-04-27},
	date = {2012-01-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{urbano_twenty-five_2019,
	title = {Twenty-five years of research on institutions, entrepreneurship, and economic growth: what has been learned?},
	volume = {53},
	issn = {1573-0913},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-018-0038-0},
	doi = {10.1007/s11187-018-0038-0},
	shorttitle = {Twenty-five years of research on institutions, entrepreneurship, and economic growth},
	abstract = {This paper analyzes an emergent stream of research shedding light on the institutional factors shaping entrepreneurial activity and its effect on economic growth. This integrative analysis spanning a broad spectrum of diverse literature enables a distinction between two different research lines in the field of entrepreneurship. The findings of this study, based on articles from the journals included in the Web of Science database, facilitate a broader comprehension of two separate lines of research, which allows an analysis of the interaction among institutions, entrepreneurship, and economic growth. The systematic literature analysis over the last 25 years (1992–2016) of research reveals that institutions could be related to economic growth through entrepreneurship, which would open new research questions about what institutional factors are conducive to entrepreneurship, which in turn spurs economic growth. Thus, not only is understanding both complex relationships and their possible sequence useful for planning strategies and public policies, but it is also helpful for advancing and providing new insights in these research fields, which could be complementary and interdisciplinary.},
	pages = {21--49},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Small Business Economics},
	shortjournal = {Small Bus Econ},
	author = {Urbano, David and Aparicio, Sebastian and Audretsch, David},
	urldate = {2021-04-27},
	date = {2019-06-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{dutta_does_2016,
	title = {Does corruption ever help entrepreneurship?},
	volume = {47},
	issn = {1573-0913},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-016-9728-7},
	doi = {10.1007/s11187-016-9728-7},
	abstract = {The current literature contains mixed results regarding the impact of corruption on entrepreneurship and economic growth. In this paper, we examine a much larger set of countries and time periods to attempt to gain insights into this relationship. In particular, the central question is whether corruption can compensate for a bad business climate. Our results are clear; corruption hurts entrepreneurship. The impact is smaller, but remains negative, when business climates are bad. This is in contrast to previous literature that suggests corruption may increase entrepreneurship under a bad business climate. We find corruption never improves entrepreneurship; it simply hurts less when business climates are not conducive to growth in the first place.},
	pages = {179--199},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Small Business Economics},
	shortjournal = {Small Bus Econ},
	author = {Dutta, Nabamita and Sobel, Russell},
	urldate = {2021-04-27},
	date = {2016-06-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{acemoglu_reward_1995,
	title = {Reward structures and the allocation of talent},
	volume = {39},
	issn = {0014-2921},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/001429219400014Q},
	doi = {10.1016/0014-2921(94)00014-Q},
	abstract = {As relative rewards that different professions receive are a key factor in the allocation of talent, what determines the reward structure of a society is an important question. This paper develops an equilibrium model of the allocation of talent between productive and unproductive activities (such as rent-seeking). The existence of rent-seeking creates a negative externality on productive agents and implies that relative rewards are endogenously determined. The same externality can also lead to the existence of multiple equilibria, each with different reward structures. In a dynamic setting, allocations of past generations as well as expectations of future allocations influence current rewards and the society may get trapped in a ‘rent-seeking’ steady state equilibrium. The paper also discusses how the non-pecuniary reward structure can be influenced by equilibrium selection and a historical example that suggests the presence of a causal link from the allocation of talent to non-pecuniary rewards.},
	pages = {17--33},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {European Economic Review},
	shortjournal = {European Economic Review},
	author = {Acemoglu, Daron},
	urldate = {2021-04-27},
	date = {1995-01-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {History dependence, Multiple equilibria, Rent-seeking, Reward structures, Social consensus},
}

@article{aidt_rent_2016,
	title = {Rent seeking and the economics of corruption},
	volume = {27},
	issn = {1572-9966},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10602-016-9215-9},
	doi = {10.1007/s10602-016-9215-9},
	abstract = {The paper studies the influence of Tullock (West Econ J 5:224–232, 1967) and the rent-seeking literature more generally on the study of corruption. The theoretical corruption literature with its emphasis on principal-agent relationships within government and rent creation by corruption politicians has largely, but not entirely, overlooked that contestable rents encourage unproductive use of real resources in seeking these rents. As a consequence, the literature underestimates the value of corruption control and the cost of corruption itself.},
	pages = {142--157},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Constitutional Political Economy},
	shortjournal = {Const Polit Econ},
	author = {Aidt, Toke S.},
	urldate = {2021-04-27},
	date = {2016-06-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{ash_measuring_nodate,
	title = {Measuring Gender and Religious Bias in the Indian Judiciary},
	abstract = {We study judicial in-group bias in Indian criminal courts, collecting data on over 80 million legal case records from 2010–2018. We exploit quasi-random assignment of judges and changes in judge cohorts to examine whether defendant outcomes are aﬀected by being assigned to a judge with a similar religious or gender identity. We estimate tight zero eﬀects of in-group bias. The upper end of our 95\% conﬁdence interval rejects eﬀect sizes that are one-ﬁfth of those in most of the prior literature.},
	pages = {53},
	author = {Ash, Elliott and Asher, Sam and Bhowmick, Aditi and Chen, Daniel and Devi, Tanaya and Goessmann, Christoph and Novosad, Paul and Siddiqi, Bilal},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{fritz_interplay_2020,
	title = {On the interplay of regional mobility, social connectedness, and the spread of covid-19 in germany},
	journaltitle = {{arXiv} preprint {arXiv}:2008.03013},
	author = {Fritz, Cornelius and Kauermann, Göran},
	date = {2020},
}

@article{fan_weaving_2021,
	title = {Weaving public health and safety nets to respond the {COVID}-19 pandemic},
	volume = {134},
	issn = {0925-7535},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925753520304550},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ssci.2020.105058},
	abstract = {How do governments take strategic actions in weaving public health and safety nets to respond to the {COVID}-19 pandemic? Embracing Moore’s strategic action framework, this study investigates how municipal governments can configure authorizing environment—operational capacity—public value attributes to weave public health and safety nets, in order to prevent and control the public health and safety emergency. Leveraging fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis ({fsQCA}) with a sample of 323 Chinese cities, we identify a distinctive taxonomy of four equally effective configurations of urban actions in blocking {COVID}-19 transmission: social reassurance, proactive defence, decisive resiliency, and strengthened coercion. Overall, this study provides a novel insight of public health and safety management into battles against {COVID}-19 in human society.},
	pages = {105058},
	journaltitle = {Safety Science},
	shortjournal = {Safety Science},
	author = {Fan, Di and Li, Yi and Liu, Wei and Yue, Xiao-Guang and Boustras, Georgios},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2021-02-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, Government, Public health and safety, Strategic action, fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis ({fsQCA})},
}

@article{perra_non-pharmaceutical_2021,
	title = {Non-pharmaceutical interventions during the {COVID}-19 pandemic: A review},
	issn = {0370-1573},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0370157321000624},
	doi = {10.1016/j.physrep.2021.02.001},
	shorttitle = {Non-pharmaceutical interventions during the {COVID}-19 pandemic},
	abstract = {Infectious diseases and human behavior are intertwined. On one side, our movements and interactions are the engines of transmission. On the other, the unfolding of viruses might induce changes to our daily activities. While intuitive, our understanding of such feedback loop is still limited. Before {COVID}-19 the literature on the subject was mainly theoretical and largely missed validation. The main issue was the lack of empirical data capturing behavioral change induced by diseases. Things have dramatically changed in 2020. Non-pharmaceutical interventions ({NPIs}) have been the key weapon against the {SARS}-{CoV}-2 virus and affected virtually any societal process. Travel bans, events cancellation, social distancing, curfews, and lockdowns have become unfortunately very familiar. The scale of the emergency, the ease of survey as well as crowdsourcing deployment guaranteed by the latest technology, several Data for Good programs developed by tech giants, major mobile phone providers, and other companies have allowed unprecedented access to data describing behavioral changes induced by the pandemic. Here, I review some of the vast literature written on the subject of {NPIs} during the {COVID}-19 pandemic. In doing so, I analyze 348 articles written by more than 2518 authors in the first 12 months of the emergency. While the large majority of the sample was obtained by querying {PubMed}, it includes also a hand-curated list. Considering the focus, and methodology I have classified the sample into seven main categories: epidemic models, surveys, comments/perspectives, papers aiming to quantify the effects of {NPIs}, reviews, articles using data proxies to measure {NPIs}, and publicly available datasets describing {NPIs}. I summarize the methodology, data used, findings of the articles in each category and provide an outlook highlighting future challenges as well as opportunities.},
	journaltitle = {Physics Reports},
	shortjournal = {Physics Reports},
	author = {Perra, Nicola},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2021-02-13},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Behavioral changes, {COVID}-19, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, {SARS}-{CoV}-2},
}

@online{noauthor_effect_nodate,
	title = {The effect of {COVID}‐19 lockdowns on political support: Some good news for democracy? - {BOL} - 2021 - European Journal of Political Research - Wiley Online Library},
	url = {https://ejpr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1475-6765.12401},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
}

@article{elgin_economic_2020,
	title = {Economic policy responses to a pandemic: Developing the {COVID}-19 economic stimulus index},
	volume = {1},
	shorttitle = {Economic policy responses to a pandemic},
	pages = {40--53},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Covid Economics},
	author = {Elgin, Ceyhun and Basbug, Gokce and Yalaman, Abdullah},
	date = {2020},
}

@report{noauthor_undp_2021,
	title = {{UNDP} and {UN} Women {COVID}-19 Global Gender Response Tracker},
	url = {https://data.undp.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/COVID-19-Global-Tracker-Methodological-Note-v_March2021.pdf},
	institution = {United Nations Development Programme},
	type = {Dataset},
	date = {2021},
}

@report{noauthor_covid-19_2021,
	title = {{COVID}-19 Intervention Scan {\textbar} {CIHI}},
	url = {https://www.cihi.ca/en/covid-19-intervention-scan},
	institution = {Canadian Institute for Health Information},
	type = {Dataset},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2021},
}

@article{adolph_pandemic_2021,
	title = {Pandemic Politics: Timing State-Level Social Distancing Responses to {COVID}-19},
	volume = {46},
	issn = {0361-6878},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1215/03616878-8802162},
	doi = {10.1215/03616878-8802162},
	abstract = {Context: Social distancing is an essential but economically painful measure to flatten the curve of emergent infectious diseases. As the novel coronavirus that causes {COVID}-19 spread throughout the United States in early 2020, the federal government left to the states the difficult and consequential decisions about when to cancel events, close schools and businesses, and issue stay-at-home orders.Methods: The authors present an original, detailed dataset of state-level social distancing policy responses to the epidemic; they then apply event history analysis to study the timing of implementation of five social distancing policies across all 50 states.Results: The most important predictor of when states adopted social distancing policies is political: all else equal, states led by Republican governors were slower to implement such policies during a critical window of early {COVID}-19 response.Conclusions: Continuing actions driven by partisanship rather than by public health expertise and scientific recommendations may exact greater tolls on health and broader society.},
	pages = {211--233},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law},
	shortjournal = {Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law},
	author = {Adolph, Christopher and Amano, Kenya and Bang-Jensen, Bree and Fullman, Nancy and Wilkerson, John},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2021-04-01},
}

@report{grundy_global_2021,
	title = {Global Dataset of Public Health and Social Measures},
	url = {https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/phsm},
	institution = {World Health Organization},
	author = {Grundy, Chris and Quinn, Orlagh and Todowede, Sewedo},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2021},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{lehner_lockdown_nodate,
	title = {The lockdown tweet that launched a {COVID}-19 ‘supertracker’},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02760-0},
	journaltitle = {Nature},
	author = {Lehner, Lukas},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
}

@report{noauthor_covid-19_2020,
	title = {{COVID}-19 Government Measures Dataset},
	url = {https://www.acaps.org/covid-19-government-measures-dataset},
	abstract = {The {COVID}-19 Government Measures Dataset puts together all the measures implemented by governments worldwide in response to the Coronavirus pandemic. Data collection includes secondary data review. The researched information available falls into five categories:},
	institution = {{ACAPS}},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-03-18},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{bo_effectiveness_2021,
	title = {Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on {COVID}-19 transmission in 190 countries from 23 January to 13 April 2020},
	volume = {102},
	issn = {1201-9712},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220322700},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ijid.2020.10.066},
	abstract = {Background
To evaluate and compare the effectiveness of four types of non-pharmaceutical interventions ({NPIs}) to contain the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt) of coronavirus disease-2019 ({COVID}-19).
Methods
This study included 1,908,197 confirmed {COVID}-19 cases from 190 countries between 23 January and 13 April 2020. The implemented {NPIs} were categorised into four types: mandatory face mask in public, isolation or quarantine, social distancing and traffic restriction (referred to as mandatory mask, quarantine, distancing and traffic hereafter, respectively).
Results
The implementations of mandatory mask, quarantine, distancing and traffic were associated with changes (95\% confidence interval, {CI}) of −15.14\% (from −21.79\% to −7.93\%), −11.40\% (from −13.66\% to −9.07\%), −42.94\% (from −44.24\% to −41.60\%) and −9.26\% (from −11.46\% to −7.01\%) in the Rt of {COVID}-19 when compared with those without the implementation of the corresponding measures. Distancing and the simultaneous implementation of two or more types of {NPIs} seemed to be associated with a greater decrease in the Rt of {COVID}-19.
Conclusion
Our study indicates that {NPIs} can significantly contain the {COVID}-19 pandemic. Distancing and the simultaneous implementation of two or more {NPIs} should be the strategic priorities for containing {COVID}-19.},
	pages = {247--253},
	journaltitle = {International Journal of Infectious Diseases},
	shortjournal = {International Journal of Infectious Diseases},
	author = {Bo, Yacong and Guo, Cui and Lin, Changqing and Zeng, Yiqian and Li, Hao Bi and Zhang, Yumiao and Hossain, Md Shakhaoat and Chan, Jimmy W. M. and Yeung, David W. and Kwok, Kin On and Wong, Samuel Y. S. and Lau, Alexis K. H. and Lao, Xiang Qian},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2021-01-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, Time-Varying effective reproduction number (Rt)},
}

@article{suryanarayanan_ai-assisted_2021,
	title = {{AI}-assisted tracking of worldwide non-pharmaceutical interventions for {COVID}-19},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {2052-4463},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-00878-y},
	doi = {10.1038/s41597-021-00878-y},
	abstract = {The Coronavirus disease 2019 ({COVID}-19) global pandemic has transformed almost every facet of human society throughout the world. Against an emerging, highly transmissible disease, governments worldwide have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions ({NPIs}) to slow the spread of the virus. Examples of such interventions include community actions, such as school closures or restrictions on mass gatherings, individual actions including mask wearing and self-quarantine, and environmental actions such as cleaning public facilities. We present the Worldwide Non-pharmaceutical Interventions Tracker for {COVID}-19 ({WNTRAC}), a comprehensive dataset consisting of over 6,000 {NPIs} implemented worldwide since the start of the pandemic. {WNTRAC} covers {NPIs} implemented across 261 countries and territories, and classifies {NPIs} into a taxonomy of 16 {NPI} types. {NPIs} are automatically extracted daily from Wikipedia articles using natural language processing techniques and then manually validated to ensure accuracy and veracity. We hope that the dataset will prove valuable for policymakers, public health leaders, and researchers in modeling and analysis efforts to control the spread of {COVID}-19.},
	pages = {94},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Scientific Data},
	shortjournal = {Scientific Data},
	author = {Suryanarayanan, Parthasarathy and Tsou, Ching-Huei and Poddar, Ananya and Mahajan, Diwakar and Dandala, Bharath and Madan, Piyush and Agrawal, Anshul and Wachira, Charles and Samuel, Osebe Mogaka and Bar-Shira, Osnat and Kipchirchir, Clifton and Okwako, Sharon and Ogallo, William and Otieno, Fred and Nyota, Timothy and Matu, Fiona and Barros, Vesna Resende and Shats, Daniel and Kagan, Oren and Remy, Sekou and Bent, Oliver and Guhan, Pooja and Mahatma, Shilpa and Walcott-Bryant, Aisha and Pathak, Divya and Rosen-Zvi, Michal},
	date = {2021-03-25},
}

@article{varga_loneliness_2021,
	title = {Loneliness, worries, anxiety, and precautionary behaviours in response to the {COVID}-19 pandemic: A longitudinal analysis of 200,000 Western and Northern Europeans},
	volume = {2},
	issn = {2666-7762},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266677622030020X},
	doi = {10.1016/j.lanepe.2020.100020},
	shorttitle = {Loneliness, worries, anxiety, and precautionary behaviours in response to the {COVID}-19 pandemic},
	abstract = {Background
In response to the {COVID}-19 pandemic, governments around the world instituted various public-health measures. Our project aimed to highlight the most significant similarities and differences in key mental-health indicators between four Western and Northern European countries, and identify the population subgroups with the poorest mental-health outcomes during the first months of the pandemic.
Methods
We analysed time-series survey data of 205,084 individuals from seven studies from Denmark, France, the Netherlands, and the {UK} to assess the impact of the pandemic and associated lockdowns. All analyses focused on the initial lockdown phase (March–July 2020). The main outcomes were loneliness, anxiety, and {COVID}-19-related worries and precautionary behaviours.
Findings
{COVID}-19-related worries were consistently high in each country but decreased during the gradual reopening phases. While only 7\% of the respondents reported high levels of loneliness in the Netherlands, percentages were higher in the rest of the three countries (13–18\%). In all four countries, younger individuals and individuals with a history of mental illness expressed the highest levels of loneliness.
Interpretation
The pandemic and associated country lockdowns had a major impact on the mental health of populations, and certain subgroups should be closely followed to prevent negative long-term consequences. Younger individuals and individuals with a history of mental illness would benefit from tailored public-health interventions to prevent or counteract the negative effects of the pandemic. Individuals across Western and Northern Europe have thus far responded in psychologically similar ways despite differences in government approaches to the pandemic.
Funding
See the Funding section.},
	pages = {100020},
	journaltitle = {The Lancet Regional Health - Europe},
	shortjournal = {The Lancet Regional Health - Europe},
	author = {Varga, Tibor V. and Bu, Feifei and Dissing, Agnete S. and Elsenburg, Leonie K. and Bustamante, Joel J. Herranz and Matta, Joane and van Zon, Sander K. R. and Brouwer, Sandra and Bültmann, Ute and Fancourt, Daisy and Hoeyer, Klaus and Goldberg, Marcel and Melchior, Maria and Strandberg-Larsen, Katrine and Zins, Marie and Clotworthy, Amy and Rod, Naja H.},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2021-03-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Anxiety, {COVID}-19, Global health, Governmental interventions, Lockdown, Loneliness, Pandemic, Precautions, Public health, Worries},
}

@report{pulejo_electoral_2020,
	title = {Electoral Concerns Reduce Restrictive Measures During the {COVID}-19 Pandemic},
	url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w27498},
	abstract = {Founded in 1920, the {NBER} is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.},
	number = {w27498},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Pulejo, Massimo and Querubín, Pablo},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-07-13},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.3386/w27498},
}

@report{demirguc-kunt_sooner_2020,
	location = {Rochester, {NY}},
	title = {The Sooner, the Better: The Early Economic Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions During the {COVID}-19 Pandemic},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3611386},
	shorttitle = {The Sooner, the Better},
	abstract = {The size of the economic shocks triggered by the {COVID}-19 pandemic and the effects of the associated non-pharmaceutical interventions have not been fully assessed, because the official economic indicators have not been published. This paper provides estimates of the economic impacts of the non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented by countries in Europe and Central Asia over the initial stages of the {COVID}-19 pandemic. The analysis relies on high-frequency proxies, such as daily electricity consumption, nitrogen dioxide emission, and mobility records, to trace the economic disruptions caused by the pandemic, and calibrates these measures to estimate magnitude of the economic impact. The results suggest that the non-pharmaceutical interventions led to about a decline of about 10 percent in economic activity across the region. On average, countries that implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions in the early stages of the pandemic appear to have better short-term economic outcomes and lower cumulative mortality, compared with countries that imposed non-pharmaceutical interventions during the later stages of the pandemic. In part, this is because the interventions have been less stringent. Moreover, there is evidence that {COVID}-19 mortality at the peak of the local outbreak has been lower in countries that acted earlier. In this sense, the results suggest that the sooner non-pharmaceutical interventions are implemented, the better are the economic and health outcomes.},
	number = {{ID} 3611386},
	institution = {Social Science Research Network},
	type = {{SSRN} Scholarly Paper},
	author = {Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli and Lokshin, Michael and Torre, Iván},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-05-26},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Avian Flu, Cholera, Communicable Diseases, Energy Policies \& Economics, Health Care Services Industry, Law and Justice Institutions, Leprosy, Public Health Promotion},
}

@article{borgonovi_bowling_2020,
	title = {Bowling together by bowling alone: Social capital and {COVID}-19},
	volume = {265},
	issn = {0277-9536},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953620307206},
	doi = {10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113501},
	shorttitle = {Bowling together by bowling alone},
	abstract = {Social capital describes the social bonds that exist within a community and comprises norms of reciprocity and trust as well as social relationships and social networks. We use data from counties in the United States to identify if community level responses to {COVID}-19 during the early phase of the pandemic (February 17 – May 10) depended on levels of social capital. We find that individuals who lived in counties with high levels of social capital reduced mobility faster than individuals living in counties with low levels of social capital and that they especially reduced mobility directed at retail and recreational activities, i.e. non-essential activities with higher potential risk. Difference-in-difference results show that the adoption of shelter-in-place orders ({SIPOs}) in a county, an increase in the number of diagnosed {COVID}-19 cases and a rainy weather were all associated with a decline in mobility, but that effects were heterogenous and depended on community level social capital. Effects were more pronounced in high social capital communities. Based on these findings, we map the level of vulnerability of communities in the United States to {COVID}-19: counties with a large share of the population suffering from pre-existing medical conditions and low levels of community level social capital are especially susceptible to experiencing severe health outcomes because of {COVID}-19.},
	pages = {113501},
	journaltitle = {Social Science \& Medicine},
	shortjournal = {Social Science \& Medicine},
	author = {Borgonovi, Francesca and Andrieu, Elodie},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-11-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Behavioral change, {COVID}-19, Coronavirus, Mobility, Shelter-in-place orders, Social capital, United States},
}

@article{ashraf_economic_2020,
	title = {Economic impact of government interventions during the {COVID}-19 pandemic: International evidence from financial markets},
	volume = {27},
	issn = {2214-6350},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214635020302422},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100371},
	shorttitle = {Economic impact of government interventions during the {COVID}-19 pandemic},
	abstract = {The outbreak of {COVID}-19 pandemic came as a rare, unprecedented event and governments around the globe scrambled with emergency actions including social distancing measures, public awareness programs, testing and quarantining policies, and income support packages. In this paper, we examine the expected economic impact of government actions by analyzing the effect of such actions on stock market returns. Using daily data from January 22 to April 17, 2020 from 77 countries, we find announcements of government social distancing measures have a direct negative effect on stock market returns due to their adverse effect on economic activity, while an indirect positive effect through the reduction in {COVID}-19 confirmed cases. Government announcements regarding public awareness programs, testing and quarantining policies, and income support packages largely result in positive market returns. Our findings have important policy implications, primarily by showing that government social distancing measures have both positive and negative economic impact.},
	pages = {100371},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance},
	shortjournal = {Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance},
	author = {Ashraf, Badar Nadeem},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-09-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, Coronavirus, Government interventions, Pandemic, {SARS}-{CoV}-2, Social distancing, Stock market},
}

@book{maloney_determinants_2020,
	title = {Determinants of Social Distancing and Economic Activity during {COVID}-19: A Global View},
	url = {https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/1813-9450-9242},
	series = {Policy Research Working Papers},
	shorttitle = {Determinants of Social Distancing and Economic Activity during {COVID}-19},
	pagetotal = {23},
	publisher = {The World Bank},
	author = {Maloney, William and Taskin, Temel},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-05-12},
	doi = {10.1596/1813-9450-9242},
}

@article{bargain_trust_2020,
	title = {Trust and compliance to public health policies in times of {COVID}-19},
	volume = {192},
	issn = {0047-2727},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272720301808},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104316},
	abstract = {While degraded trust and cohesion within a country are often shown to have large socio-economic impacts, they can also have dramatic consequences when compliance is required for collective survival. We illustrate this point in the context of the {COVID}-19 crisis. Policy responses all over the world aim to reduce social interaction and limit contagion. Using data on human mobility and political trust at regional level in Europe, we examine whether the compliance to these containment policies depends on the level of trust in policy makers prior to the crisis. Using a double difference approach around the time of lockdown announcements, we find that high-trust regions decrease their mobility related to non-necessary activities significantly more than low-trust regions. We also exploit country and time variation in treatment using the daily strictness of national policies. The efficiency of policy stringency in terms of mobility reduction significantly increases with trust. The trust effect is nonlinear and increases with the degree of stringency. We assess how the impact of trust on mobility potentially translates in terms of mortality growth rate.},
	pages = {104316},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Public Economics},
	shortjournal = {Journal of Public Economics},
	author = {Bargain, Olivier and Aminjonov, Ulugbek},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-12-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, Policy stringency, Political trust},
}

@report{fetzer_global_2020,
	title = {Global Behaviors and Perceptions at the Onset of the {COVID}-19 Pandemic},
	url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w27082},
	abstract = {Founded in 1920, the {NBER} is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.},
	number = {w27082},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Fetzer, Thiemo R. and Witte, Marc and Hensel, Lukas and Jachimowicz, Jon and Haushofer, Johannes and Ivchenko, Andriy and Caria, Stefano and Reutskaja, Elena and Roth, Christopher P. and Fiorin, Stefano and Gómez, Margarita and Kraft-Todd, Gordon and Götz, Friedrich M. and Yoeli, Erez},
	urldate = {2021-04-19},
	date = {2020-05-04},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.3386/w27082},
}

@online{noauthor_is_nodate,
	title = {Is Peer Review a Good Idea? {\textbar} The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science},
	url = {https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1093/bjps/axz029#_i18},
	urldate = {2021-04-13},
}

@article{nichter_small_2009,
	title = {Small Firm Growth in Developing Countries},
	volume = {37},
	issn = {0305-750X},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X09000928},
	doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.01.013},
	abstract = {Although the vast majority of small firms in developing countries never expand beyond a few employees, some experience rapid and substantial growth. This study explores factors associated with small firm growth. We discuss key findings for four types of factors: (1) individual entrepreneur characteristics; (2) firm characteristics; (3) relational factors (such as social networks or value chains); and (4) contextual factors (such as the business environment). We conclude by suggesting implications for development practitioners.},
	pages = {1453--1464},
	number = {9},
	journaltitle = {World Development},
	shortjournal = {World Development},
	author = {Nichter, Simeon and Goldmark, Lara},
	urldate = {2021-04-11},
	date = {2009-09-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {business environment, entrepreneur, growth, microenterprise, small firm, value chains},
}

@report{grewal_algerias_2019,
	title = {Algeria’s uprising: A survey of protesters and the military},
	url = {https://www.brookings.edu/research/algerias-uprising-a-survey-of-protesters-and-the-military/},
	shorttitle = {Algeria’s uprising},
	abstract = {The majority of Algerians in a new survey support the protest movement and want a complete change of the political system, researchers find.},
	institution = {Brookings Institution},
	author = {Grewal, Sharan and Kilavuz, Tahir and Kubinec, Robert},
	urldate = {2021-04-08},
	date = {2019-07-15},
	langid = {american},
}

@book{abul-magd_militarizing_2017,
	location = {New York, {UNITED} {STATES}},
	title = {Militarizing the Nation: The Army, Business, and Revolution in Egypt},
	isbn = {978-0-231-54280-7},
	url = {http://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/nyulibrary-ebooks/detail.action?docID=5276095},
	shorttitle = {Militarizing the Nation},
	abstract = {Egypt's army portrays itself as a faithful guardian "saving the nation." Yet saving the nation has meant militarizing it. Zeinab Abul-Magd examines both the visible and often invisible efforts by Egypt's semi-autonomous military to hegemonize the country's politics, economy, and society over the past six decades. The Egyptian army has adapted to and benefited from crucial moments of change. It weathered the transition to socialism in the 1960s, market consumerism in the 1980s, and neoliberalism from the 1990s onward, all while enhancing its political supremacy and expanding a mammoth business empire. Most recently, the military has fought back two popular uprisings, retained full power in the wake of the Arab Spring, and increased its wealth. While adjusting to these shifts, military officers have successfully transformed urban milieus into ever-expanding military camps. These spaces now host a permanent armed presence that exercises continuous surveillance over everyday life. Egypt's military business enterprises have tapped into the consumer habits of the rich and poor alike, reaping unaccountable profits and optimizing social command. Using both a political economy approach and a Foucauldian perspective, Militarizing the Nation traces the genealogy of the Egyptian military for those eager to know how such a controversial power gains and maintains control.},
	publisher = {Columbia University Press},
	author = {Abul-Magd, Zeinab},
	urldate = {2021-04-07},
	date = {2017},
	keywords = {Egypt-Armed Forces-Political activity., Egypt-Economic conditions-1952-, Egypt-Politics and government-20th century., Egypt-Politics and government-21st century.},
}

@report{sayigh_owners_2019,
	title = {Owners of the Republic: An Anatomy of Egypt's Military Economy},
	institution = {Carnegie Endowment for International Peace},
	author = {Sayigh, Yezid},
	date = {2019},
}

@report{marshall_egyptian_2015,
	title = {The Egyptian Armed Forces and the Remaking of an Economic Empire},
	pages = {38},
	institution = {Carnegie Endowment for International Peace},
	author = {Marshall, Shana},
	date = {2015-04},
	langid = {english},
}

@book{nugent_after_2020,
	title = {After Repression},
	isbn = {978-0-691-20306-5},
	url = {https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691203065/after-repression},
	abstract = {How differing forms of repression shape the outcomes of democratic transitions},
	publisher = {Princeton University Press},
	author = {Nugent, Elizabeth},
	urldate = {2021-04-01},
	date = {2020-09-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{grewal_tunisias_2020,
	title = {Tunisia's Foiled Coup of 1987: The November 8th Group},
	volume = {74},
	doi = {10.3751/74.1.13},
	shorttitle = {Tunisia's Foiled Coup of 1987},
	abstract = {In 1987 Tunisian prime minister Zine al-'Abidine Ben 'Ali seized power from the ailing president, Habib Bourguiba. Less well-known is that Ben 'Ali's coup had preempted another coup plot planned for the following day. This article recounts the story of this latter plot, led by the November 8th Group, a coalition of about 200 individuals in the military, security forces, and the Islamic Tendency Movement ({MTI}). Drawing on memoirs and interviews, the article explores the plotters' motivations, post-takeover plans, and ultimate failure. It highlights how Bourguiba's coup-proofing strategies shaped the plot and its outcome, concluding with a discussion on the foiled coup's lasting impact on Tunisian civil-military relations.},
	pages = {53--71},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Middle East Journal},
	shortjournal = {The Middle East Journal},
	author = {Grewal, Sharan},
	date = {2020-05-01},
}

@report{mauro_economic_nodate,
	title = {Economic Issues No. 6 -- Why Worry About Corruption?},
	url = {https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues6/index.htm},
	institution = {International Monetary Fund},
	author = {Mauro, Paolo},
	urldate = {2021-03-28},
}

@article{fedenia_cross-holdings_1994,
	title = {Cross-Holdings: Estimation Issues, Biases, and Distortions},
	volume = {7},
	issn = {0893-9454},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/7.1.61},
	doi = {10.1093/rfs/7.1.61},
	shorttitle = {Cross-Holdings},
	abstract = {Cross-bolding occurs when listed corporations own securities issued by other corporations. We analyze the effect of cross-holdings on market capitalization and return measures as well as implications for econometric testing of asset pricing theories. We show that cross-holdings generally distort standard market return and risk measures. The magnitudes of such distortions are calculated for simulated economies by using a variety of cross-holding patterns. In addition, cross-holdings are shown to induce nonstationarity in the covariance matrix of security returns. We examine the effect of this nonstationarity for estimating efficient frontiers and factor structures. We also discuss the implications for risk-return estimates in equilibrium asset pricing models.},
	pages = {61--96},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {The Review of Financial Studies},
	shortjournal = {The Review of Financial Studies},
	author = {Fedenia, Mark and Hodder, James E. and Triantis, Alexander J.},
	urldate = {2021-03-25},
	date = {1994-01-01},
}

@inproceedings{tanzi_corruption_1998,
	location = {Tokyo},
	title = {Corruption, Public Investment, and Growth},
	isbn = {978-4-431-67939-4},
	doi = {10.1007/978-4-431-67939-4_4},
	abstract = {Up to the time when a huge corruption scandal, popularly labeled “tangentopoli” (bribe city), brought down the political establishment that had ruled Italy for several decades, that country had reported one of the largest shares of capital spending in {GDP} among the {OECD} countries. After the scandal broke out and several prominent individuals were sent to jail, or even committed suicide, capital spending fell sharply. The fall seems to have been caused by a reduction in the number of capital projects being undertaken and, perhaps more importantly, by a sharp fall in the costs of the projects still undertaken. Information released by Transparency International ({TI}) 1 reports that, within the space of two or three years, in the city of Milan, the city where the scandal broke out in the first place, the cost of city rail links fell by 52 percent, the cost of one kilometer of subway fell by 57 percent, and the budget for the new airport terminal was reduced by 59 percent to reflect the lower construction costs. Although one must be aware of the logical fallacy of post hoc, ergo propter hoc, the connection between the two events is too strong to be attributed to a coincidence. In fact this paper takes the view that it could not have been a coincidence},
	pages = {41--60},
	booktitle = {The Welfare State, Public Investment, and Growth},
	publisher = {Springer Japan},
	author = {Tanzi, Vito and Davoodi, Hamid},
	editor = {Shibata, Hirofumi and Ihori, Toshihiro},
	date = {1998},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Capital Project, Capital Spending, Corruption Index, High Corruption, Public Investment},
}

@article{textor_robust_2016,
	title = {Robust causal inference using directed acyclic graphs: the R package ‘dagitty’},
	volume = {45},
	issn = {0300-5771},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyw341},
	doi = {10.1093/ije/dyw341},
	shorttitle = {Robust causal inference using directed acyclic graphs},
	abstract = {Directed acyclic graphs ({DAGs}), which offer systematic representations of causal relationships, have become an established framework for the analysis of causal inference in epidemiology, often being used to determine covariate adjustment sets for minimizing confounding bias. {DAGitty} is a popular web application for drawing and analysing {DAGs}. Here we introduce the R package ‘dagitty’, which provides access to all of the capabilities of the {DAGitty} web application within the R platform for statistical computing, and also offers several new functions. We describe how the R package ‘dagitty’ can be used to: evaluate whether a {DAG} is consistent with the dataset it is intended to represent; enumerate ‘statistically equivalent’ but causally different {DAGs}; and identify exposure-outcome adjustment sets that are valid for causally different but statistically equivalent {DAGs}. This functionality enables epidemiologists to detect causal misspecifications in {DAGs} and make robust inferences that remain valid for a range of different {DAGs}. The R package ‘dagitty’ is available through the comprehensive R archive network ({CRAN}) at [https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/dagitty/]. The source code is available on github at [https://github.com/jtextor/dagitty]. The web application ‘{DAGitty}’ is free software, licensed under the {GNU} general public licence ({GPL}) version 2 and is available at [http://dagitty.net/].},
	pages = {1887--1894},
	number = {6},
	journaltitle = {International Journal of Epidemiology},
	shortjournal = {International Journal of Epidemiology},
	author = {Textor, Johannes and van der Zander, Benito and Gilthorpe, Mark S and Liśkiewicz, Maciej and Ellison, George {TH}},
	urldate = {2021-03-16},
	date = {2016-12-01},
}

@article{fernandez-mendez_domestic_2018,
	title = {Domestic political connections and international expansion: It's not only ‘who you know’ that matters},
	volume = {53},
	issn = {1090-9516},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1090951617300469},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jwb.2018.03.006},
	shorttitle = {Domestic political connections and international expansion},
	abstract = {Former politicians on the board of directors bring to the firm domestic political connections and political knowledge. Previous research has mainly highlighted the role of contacts, without fully recognizing the role of political knowledge accumulated at home. By focusing on the effect of domestic political connections on foreign direct investment, we show that domestic political knowledge also shapes foreign expansion. We argue that contacts provided by former politicians may not be useful for foreign expansion whilst their political knowledge can be of help in countries with discretionary governments and with similar institutional environments to the one of the home country.},
	pages = {695--711},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {Journal of World Business},
	shortjournal = {Journal of World Business},
	author = {Fernández-Méndez, Laura and García-Canal, Esteban and Guillén, Mauro F.},
	urldate = {2021-03-15},
	date = {2018-11-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Board of directors, {FDI}, Home country, International expansion, Location choice, Political connections},
}

@article{boudreaux_corruption_2018,
	title = {Corruption and destructive entrepreneurship},
	volume = {51},
	issn = {1573-0913},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-017-9927-x},
	doi = {10.1007/s11187-017-9927-x},
	abstract = {The negative effects of corruption at the macro level are well-documented. Corruption reduces economic growth, lowers investment, and erodes trust in government officials, creating an institutional environment that pushes entrepreneurs from productive to destructive activities. Corruption also has effects at the micro level because some industries are better situated to profit from corruption than others. Corruption not only lowers economic output but also shifts resources toward some industries and away from others. Using federal convictions in the {USA} as a measure of corruption, regression results show that increased corruption shifts resources toward the construction industry and away from the education industry and professional, scientific, and technical service industry. The evidence also shows that the distance from state capitals and voter turnout moderate the relationship between corruption and firm concentrations.},
	pages = {181--202},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Small Business Economics},
	shortjournal = {Small Bus Econ},
	author = {Boudreaux, Christopher J. and Nikolaev, Boris N. and Holcombe, Randall G.},
	urldate = {2021-03-15},
	date = {2018-06-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@online{noauthor_women_nodate,
	title = {Women Hold Up Half the Sky? Informal Institutions, Entrepreneurial Decisions, and Gender Gap in Venture Performance - Eric Yanfei Zhao, Ling Yang, 2020},
	url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1042258720980705},
	urldate = {2021-03-15},
}

@article{sun_understanding_2020,
	title = {Understanding institutions and entrepreneurship: The microfoundations lens and emerging economies},
	volume = {37},
	issn = {1572-9958},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10490-020-09738-6},
	doi = {10.1007/s10490-020-09738-6},
	shorttitle = {Understanding institutions and entrepreneurship},
	abstract = {The emerging economy perspective provides an excellent opportunity to theorize the intertwined fields of entrepreneurship and institution research. How do the institutions in emerging economies change the entrepreneurial dynamics and entrepreneurial behaviors? How do entrepreneurs reshape the institutions more favorably at multiple levels? In this paper, we identify literature gaps in theorizing institutions and entrepreneurship and build a microfoundations lens to tackle theorizing challenges in this filed. We also introduce the seven papers in this Special Issue of Asia Pacific Journal of Management on institutions and entrepreneurship with different levels of analysis and research designs. Finally, we outline a systematic research agenda in this promising and important field.},
	pages = {957--979},
	number = {4},
	journaltitle = {Asia Pacific Journal of Management},
	shortjournal = {Asia Pac J Manag},
	author = {Sun, Sunny Li and Shi, Weilei (Stone) and Ahlstrom, David and Tian, Li (Rachel)},
	urldate = {2021-03-15},
	date = {2020-12-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{samara_family_2020,
	title = {Family businesses in the Arab Middle East: What do we know and where should we go?},
	issn = {1877-8585},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877858520300863},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jfbs.2020.100359},
	shorttitle = {Family businesses in the Arab Middle East},
	abstract = {This article takes stock of family business research in the Arab Middle East by systematically reviewing 70 articles published between 2000 and 2018. Results show that prevalent cultural traits of patriarchy and collectivism have led to a high commitment to the family business workforce, to the ceremonial appointment of women in leadership positions, to prioritizing family harmony over any other goal, to the pursuit of male dynastic succession that sustains the vision of the founder, and to informal human resources practices. Furthermore, the presence of institutional voids has facilitated the adoption of informal governance structures and has led controlling owners to adopt conservative financial strategies. These practices translate into various firm economic and societal outcomes, depending on the business legal structure, the generational ownership stage, and the family relationship dynamics. Despite these insights, much of prior research on family businesses in the Arab Middle East remains exploratory and unfocused, which emphasizes an evident need for contextualized, theoretically rich, and methodologically rigorous studies. In conclusion, the article proposes an agenda to advance future research on family businesses in the Arab Middle East.},
	pages = {100359},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Family Business Strategy},
	shortjournal = {Journal of Family Business Strategy},
	author = {Samara, Georges},
	urldate = {2021-03-15},
	date = {2020-07-18},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Arab Middle East, Developing countries, Emerging countries, Family business, Literature review},
}

@article{alaydi_strategic_2021,
	title = {Strategic responses to extreme institutional challenges: An {MNE} case study in the Palestinian mobile phone sector},
	issn = {0969-5931},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969593121000135},
	doi = {10.1016/j.ibusrev.2021.101806},
	shorttitle = {Strategic responses to extreme institutional challenges},
	abstract = {Besides firm-level resources and industrial influences, firms’ strategies have been related to their institutional contexts. Empirical studies have investigated survival strategies in international environments where institutional voids, barriers and violence have had independent influences. This study is the first to analyse strategies in circumstances that combine all these negative challenges. In the Palestinian mobile phone industry, a surviving {MNE} has faced not only violence, voids and institutional barriers imposed by three different governments, but also the liability of foreignness and its associated uncertainties. In a highly uncertain environment, it is found that being a {MNE} brings benefits as well as liabilities of foreignness. Furthermore, this {MNE} discloses many strategic responses to institutional challenges that are associated with positive outcomes, even in a most extreme Palestinian environment that produces the most propitious circumstances for negative responses and outcomes.},
	pages = {101806},
	journaltitle = {International Business Review},
	shortjournal = {International Business Review},
	author = {Alaydi, Sharif and Buck, Trevor and Tang, Yee Kwan},
	urldate = {2021-03-15},
	date = {2021-02-03},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Institution-based view, Institutional challenges, Institutional context, {MNE}, Strategic responses, Violence},
}

@online{noauthor_entrepreneurs_nodate,
	title = {Entrepreneurs' socioeconomic status and government expropriation in an emerging economy - Zhou - 2020 - Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal - Wiley Online Library},
	url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/sej.1361},
	urldate = {2021-03-15},
}

@report{hajji_barometre_2012,
	title = {Barometre 2012 des Enterprises en Tunisie},
	institution = {Ernst \& Young},
	author = {Hajji, Noureddine and Zaoui, Sami},
	date = {2012},
}

@article{allam_report_2020,
	title = {Report: {COVID}-10 Pandemic Compounds Challenges Facing {MENA} Research},
	volume = {3},
	pages = {5--9},
	number = {2},
	journaltitle = {{MENA} Politics Newsletter},
	author = {Allam, Nermin and Buttorff, Gail and Shalaby, Marwa},
	date = {2020},
}

@incollection{cassarino_participatory_2004,
	location = {New York},
	title = {Participatory Development and Liberal Reforms in Tunisia: The Gradual Incorporation of Some Economic Networks},
	isbn = {978-1-4039-8214-8},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1057/9781403982148_8},
	shorttitle = {Participatory Development and Liberal Reforms in Tunisia},
	abstract = {Since the early 1990s, political economists have devoted a great deal of attention to the potential impact of liberal and fiscal reforms on the economic structures and social and political systems of Mediterranean Non-Member Countries ({MNCs}), while focusing, among other things, on the gradual exposure of domestic firms to international competition, the dismantling of trade barriers, and the consequential loss of fiscal revenue. The need for enhanced credibility and financial support from foreign donors are often mentioned to explain the adherence of some {MNCs} to the drastic measures advocated by the World Trade Organization ({WTO}) and the European Union ({EU}). However, scant attention has been given to the multifarious ways in which liberal and fiscal reforms have been understood—if not reinterpreted—by some Middle Eastern governments. This chapter deals with the ways in which the Tunisian government has been successful in reinterpreting the scope of its liberal economic reforms, and with the dynamics that have gradually shaped the relationships between the government and some leading entrepreneurs of the Tunisian manufacturing industry since the early 1990s, while redefining the patterns of participatory development in Tunisia.},
	pages = {223--242},
	booktitle = {Networks of Privilege in the Middle East: The Politics of Economic Reform Revisited},
	publisher = {Palgrave Macmillan {US}},
	author = {Cassarino, Jean-Pierre},
	editor = {Heydemann, Steven},
	urldate = {2021-03-10},
	date = {2004},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.1057/9781403982148_8},
	keywords = {European Union, Gross Domestic Product, Middle East, Network Organization, Operative Firm},
}

@thesis{blackman_politicization_2020,
	title = {The Politicization of Faith: Colonialism, education, and political identity in Tunisia},
	abstract = {My dissertation examines two main questions: How did French colonial rule transform
the religious endowment (waqf) and educational systems in Tunisia? What impact did state control
over these local institutions have on political mobilization in the run-up to independence? I explore
how French colonization created demand for new French educational institutions and undermined the
existing waqf-based education system. The transformation of these local institutions had important
implications for the later appearance of local secular-nationalist or Islamic-nationalist mobilization
around the moment of independence. The variation in local political identities persisted into the postindependence period, creating the social bases of the main nationalist party (the Neo-Destour and later
the Socialist Destourian Party), and helps explain contemporary partisanship in post-revolutionary
Tunisia.},
	institution = {Stanford University},
	type = {phdthesis},
	author = {Blackman, Alexandra},
	date = {2020},
}

@thesis{hammami_cronyism_2020,
	title = {Cronyism by Action, not by Design: An Investigation Into the Origins of Capitalist Networks in Tunisia},
	pagetotal = {126},
	institution = {Wesleyan University},
	type = {B.A. Thesis},
	author = {Hammami, Mohammed Dhia},
	date = {2020-04},
}

@article{oubenal_political_2018,
	title = {The Political Economy of Business Elites in Tunisia: Actors, Strategies and Identities},
	url = {https://erf.org.eg/publications/the-political-economy-of-business-elites-in-tunisia-actors-strategies-and-identities/},
	shorttitle = {The Political Economy of Business Elites in Tunisia},
	abstract = {When the Tunisian government seized the assets of the Ben Ali clan in 2011, prosperous companies were sold to some fractions of the business elite which started adopting a strategy of direct intervention in the political sphere to consolidate their resources and find new opportunities. In order to study the position of business elites in … Continued},
	journaltitle = {Economic Research Forum},
	author = {Oubenal, Mohamed and Ben Hamouda, Houda},
	urldate = {2021-03-10},
	date = {2018-12},
	langid = {american},
}

@article{kinney_sharing_2021,
	title = {Sharing Saddles: Oligarchs and Officers on Horseback in Egypt and Tunisia},
	issn = {0020-8833},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaa093},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqaa093},
	shorttitle = {Sharing Saddles},
	abstract = {Research on the military's removal from politics overemphasizes the attitudes and interests of officers. Civilians are portrayed as incapable of confronting refractory men with guns. This essay compares regime transitions in Egypt (2011–2013) and Tunisia (2011–2014) to show that unified civilian elites strengthen and polarized elites undermine civilian control of the armed forces. Research for the cases is based on interviews with Egyptian and Tunisian businesspersons, party members, and civil society activists; the International Consortium of Investigation Journalists's tax-offshoring database; loan disbursements from the {IMF} and World Bank; and secondary sources in Arabic, French, and English. The cases reveal novel insights about the military's removal from politics in fledgling democracies. Pleasing Egypt's officers did not shield President Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood from a coup in July 2013 because Morsi and the Brotherhood threatened the wealth and power of civilian politicians and oligarchs. In Tunisia, Islamist and non-Islamist political and economic elites pushed democratization for fear of another Ben “Ali-style kleptocracy. Even during crisis in 2013, united civilian elites contained opposition calls for army intervention. The study's findings suggest that democratizers are not at the mercy of soldiers, but rather civilian leaders have the power to sideline their armies.},
	issue = {sqaa093},
	journaltitle = {International Studies Quarterly},
	shortjournal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Kinney, Drew Holland},
	urldate = {2021-03-10},
	date = {2021-01-27},
}

@article{de_chaisemartin_two-way_2020,
	title = {Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects},
	volume = {110},
	issn = {0002-8282},
	url = {https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20181169},
	doi = {10.1257/aer.20181169},
	abstract = {Linear regressions with period and group fixed effects are widely used to estimate treatment effects. We show that they estimate weighted sums of the average treatment effects ({ATE}) in each group and period, with weights that may be negative. Due to the negative weights, the linear regression coefficient may for instance be negative while all the {ATEs} are positive. We propose another estimator that solves this issue. In the two applications we revisit, it is significantly different from the linear regression estimator.},
	pages = {2964--2996},
	number = {9},
	journaltitle = {American Economic Review},
	author = {de Chaisemartin, Clément and D'Haultfœuille, Xavier},
	urldate = {2021-03-08},
	date = {2020-09},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Media, Quantile Regressions, Single Equation Models, Single Equation Models, Single Variables: Cross-Sectional Models, Single Variables: Panel Data Models, Spatial Models, Spatio-temporal Models, Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior, Wage Level and Structure, Treatment Effect Models, Wage Differentials, Trade Unions: Objectives, Structure, and Effects, Entertainment},
}

@article{callaway_difference--differences_2020,
	title = {Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods},
	issn = {0304-4076},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407620303948},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.12.001},
	abstract = {In this article, we consider identification, estimation, and inference procedures for treatment effect parameters using Difference-in-Differences ({DiD}) with (i) multiple time periods, (ii) variation in treatment timing, and (iii) when the “parallel trends assumption” holds potentially only after conditioning on observed covariates. We show that a family of causal effect parameters are identified in staggered {DiD} setups, even if differences in observed characteristics create non-parallel outcome dynamics between groups. Our identification results allow one to use outcome regression, inverse probability weighting, or doubly-robust estimands. We also propose different aggregation schemes that can be used to highlight treatment effect heterogeneity across different dimensions as well as to summarize the overall effect of participating in the treatment. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators and prove the validity of a computationally convenient bootstrap procedure to conduct asymptotically valid simultaneous (instead of pointwise) inference. Finally, we illustrate the relevance of our proposed tools by analyzing the effect of the minimum wage on teen employment from 2001–2007. Open-source software is available for implementing the proposed methods.},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Econometrics},
	shortjournal = {Journal of Econometrics},
	author = {Callaway, Brantly and Sant’Anna, Pedro H. C.},
	urldate = {2021-03-08},
	date = {2020-12-17},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Difference-in-Differences, Doubly robust, Dynamic treatment effects, Event study, Semi-parametric, Treatment effect heterogeneity, Variation in treatment timing},
}

@article{williamson_preaching_2020,
	title = {Preaching Politics: How Politicization Undermines Religious Authority in the Middle East},
	url = {https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5b23cff07c9327b8cde5c995/t/5f276751faf3d92da6b12bcc/1596417874350/Religious+Authority+-+MENA+-+Website.pdf},
	abstract = {A growing body of research demonstrates how political involvement by Christian religious leaders can undermine the religion’s social influence. Do these negative consequences of politicization also extend to Islam? Contrary to scholarly and popular accounts that describe Islam as inherently political, we argue that Muslim religious leaders who engage in politics will weaken their religious authority. We test this argument with a conjoint experiment implemented on a survey of more than 12,000 Sunni Muslim respondents in 11 Middle Eastern countries. The results show that adopting political positions or affiliating with politically-active religious movements decreases the perceived religious authority of Muslim clerics, including among respondents who approve of the clerics’ political positions. The paper’s findings shed light on how Muslims in the Middle East understand the relationship between religion and politics, and they contribute more broadly to understanding of how political involvement by religious actors can have negative repercussions for religion.},
	pages = {38},
	author = {Williamson, Scott and Yildirim, Kadir and Grewal, Sharan and Kuenkler, Mirjam},
	date = {2020},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{thornton_palestinian_2020,
	title = {Palestinian Attitudes Towards Settlers in the West Bank},
	url = {https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/nv35r/},
	doi = {10.31235/osf.io/nv35r},
	abstract = {We present survey data from 1,573 West Bank Palestinians with which we estimate that the average Palestinian lives 14 km ({UI} 11 to 18 km) from the closest Israeli settlement. We also show with this data that while Palestinians in general hold negative attitudes towards settlers in the West Bank, Palestinians living in closer proximity to a settlement report more neutral attitudes towards settlers. Multivariate analysis shows that this effect appears to be driven by social and professional contact: Palestinians who have interacted with a settler or worked in a settlement present more positive attitudes towards settlers while distance loses its ability to predict attitudes. Since the onset of the {COVID}-19 global pandemic, the majority of respondents stated that they have lost either a job or a business from {COVID}-related restrictions, suggesting that this positive contact effect could dissipate as Palestinians have less reason to interact with Israelis.},
	journaltitle = {{SocArXiv}},
	author = {Thornton, Tessa and Kubinec, Robert},
	urldate = {2021-03-07},
	date = {2020-11-09},
	note = {type: article},
	keywords = {Comparative Politics, Political Science, Social and Behavioral Sciences, contact hypothesis, occupation, palestine, west bank},
}

@article{kubinec_how_2020,
	title = {How to Get Away with Spreading {COVID}-19: Political Connections and Pandemic Response},
	url = {https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/68fpr/},
	doi = {10.31235/osf.io/68fpr},
	shorttitle = {How to Get Away with Spreading {COVID}-19},
	abstract = {While the aim of {COVID}-19 policies is to suppress the pandemic, many fear that the burden of the restrictions will fall more heavily on less privileged groups. We show one potential mechanism for {COVID}-19 responses to increase inequality by examining the intersection of business restrictions and business political connections. Using an online survey of 2,735 business employees and managers in Ukraine, Egypt and Venezuela over the summer of 2020, we show that businesses with political connections to government officials were significantly less likely to shut down as a result of {COVID}-19 policies. This finding suggests that measures designed to mitigate {COVID}-19 are less effective in countries with a weak rule of law if politically connected firms are able to circumvent restrictions by leveraging political connections to receive preferential treatment. In addition, politically-connected firms are no more likely--and sometimes even less likely--to engage in social-distancing policies to mitigate the pandemic despite the fact that they are more likely to remain open.},
	journaltitle = {{SocArXiv}},
	author = {Kubinec, Robert and Lee, Haillie Na-Kyung and Tomashevskiy, Andrey},
	urldate = {2021-03-07},
	date = {2020-12-21},
	note = {type: article},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, Economics, Political Science, Social and Behavioral Sciences, business politics, corruption, politically-connected companies},
}

@online{hoogeven_using_2020,
	title = {Using internet surveys in the {MENA} region during {COVID}-19: Will all voices be heard?},
	url = {https://blogs.worldbank.org/arabvoices/using-internet-surveys-mena-region-during-covid-19-will-all-voices-be-heard},
	shorttitle = {Using internet surveys in the {MENA} region during {COVID}-19},
	abstract = {In the Middle East and North Africa ({MENA}), the coronavirus ({COVID}-19) is disproportionately affecting poor households, who are more likely to live in cramped conditions, often with elderly relatives, and to depend on informal sector jobs with no health insurance.},
	author = {Hoogeven, Johannes and Rodriguez, Laura and Aziz, Atamanov},
	urldate = {2021-03-07},
	date = {2020-06-24},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{fatehkia_using_2018,
	title = {Using Facebook ad data to track the global digital gender gap},
	volume = {107},
	issn = {0305-750X},
	url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X18300883},
	doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.03.007},
	abstract = {Gender equality in access to the internet and mobile phones has become increasingly recognised as a development goal. Monitoring progress towards this goal however is challenging due to the limited availability of gender-disaggregated data, particularly in low-income countries. In this data sparse context, we examine the potential of a source of digital trace ‘big data’ – Facebook’s advertisement audience estimates – that provides aggregate data on Facebook users by demographic characteristics covering the platform’s over 2 billion users to measure and ‘nowcast’ digital gender gaps. We generate a unique country-level dataset combining ‘online’ indicators of Facebook users by gender, age and device type, ‘offline’ indicators related to a country’s overall development and gender gaps, and official data on gender gaps in internet and mobile access where available. Using this dataset, we predict internet and mobile phone gender gaps from official data using online indicators, as well as online and offline indicators. We find that the online Facebook gender gap indicators are highly correlated with official statistics on internet and mobile phone gender gaps. For internet gender gaps, models using Facebook data do better than those using offline indicators alone. Models combining online and offline variables however have the highest predictive power. Our approach demonstrates the feasibility of using Facebook data for real-time tracking of digital gender gaps. It enables us to improve geographical coverage for an important development indicator, with the biggest gains made for low-income countries for which existing data are most limited.},
	pages = {189--209},
	journaltitle = {World Development},
	shortjournal = {World Development},
	author = {Fatehkia, Masoomali and Kashyap, Ridhi and Weber, Ingmar},
	urldate = {2021-03-07},
	date = {2018-07-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Big data, Development indicators, Gender inequality, Global digital gender gaps, Internet, Mobile phones},
}

@report{radcliffe_social_2020,
	location = {Rochester, {NY}},
	title = {Social Media in the Middle East: 2019 in Review},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3517916},
	shorttitle = {Social Media in the Middle East},
	abstract = {This report is the eighth in an annual series of publications, dating back to 2012, designed to share the latest stories, trends and research in social media usage from across the Middle East and North Africa ({MENA}). Using a wide variety of academic, industry and media sources, this White Paper identifies important insights from social media’s development over the previous year. Of particular note in 2019 is the continued, growing, importance of social media in the lives of Arab Youth, outside of Saudi Arabia and Turkey the declining usage of Twitter (once the poster child social network for the Arab Spring,) as well as greater scrutiny of social media usage by platform owners and governments alike. Last year’s report highlighted the increasing weaponization of social networks, a trend which continued in 2019. Facebook, Twitter and Telegram each closed hundreds of accounts due to inappropriate use by state sponsored actors and terrorist groups. Social networks were also the target of governments across {MENA}, in the midst of protests in many countries throughout the region. Meanwhile, the importance of social video and visually-led social networks, continued to grow from strength to strength. Snapchat introduced new advertising formats to the region and other exclusive functionality, Google highlighted the importance of {YouTube} in supporting parents and parenting, and in major markets such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the {UAE}, Twitter has emerged as a leading platform for online video consumption. The year ahead is likely to result in a continuation of many of the trends outlined in this report, as social media becomes increasingly engrained across the lives of businesses, governments and residents across the {MENA} region.},
	number = {{ID} 3517916},
	institution = {Social Science Research Network},
	type = {{SSRN} Scholarly Paper},
	author = {Radcliffe, Damian and Abuhmaid, Hadil},
	urldate = {2021-03-07},
	date = {2020-01-12},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.2139/ssrn.3517916},
	keywords = {Arab Youth, Censorship and Freedom of Expression, Egypt, Extremist Groups, Facebook, Instagram, Internet, Internet Marketing, Iran, Israel / Palestine, Lebanon, Messaging Apps, Social Media, Social Media Strategy, Social Network, Social Networking, Social Networks, Sudan, Twitter, {YouTube}},
}

@article{guiler_prison_2020,
	title = {From prison to parliament: Victimhood, identity, and electoral support},
	issn = {1362-9395, 1743-9418},
	url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13629395.2020.1721159},
	doi = {10.1080/13629395.2020.1721159},
	shorttitle = {From prison to parliament},
	abstract = {Are voters more likely to support candidates who are victims of political persecution? I draw on an original survey with embedded experiments deployed in Turkey ahead of the June 2015 General Election to advance a theory linking political victimhood to an electoral advantage. The results suggest that voters primed with information about a candidate’s political imprisonment, on average, report higher ideological aﬃnity with the candidate. In addition, respondents who identify as co-victims are more likely to say they would vote for a candidate who was imprisoned. These ﬁndings are signiﬁcant and hold regardless of which party the candidate belongs to. Respondents presented with a candidate from the incumbent Justice and Development Party also report higher levels of trust and closeness with the candidate who was imprisoned. This pattern is consistent for voters with low trust in the Justice and Development Party leadership and low levels of religiosity, demonstrating that a history of persecution can broaden candidates’ support.},
	pages = {1--30},
	journaltitle = {Mediterranean Politics},
	shortjournal = {Mediterranean Politics},
	author = {Guiler, Kimberly G.},
	urldate = {2021-03-07},
	date = {2020},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{wee_politics_2019,
	title = {Politics and Social Media in the Middle East and North Africa: Trends and Trust in Online Information},
	url = {https://www.arabbarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/AB_Media_Report_Final_Public-Opinion-2019-5.pdf},
	pages = {15},
	author = {Wee, Jason and Li, Sophie},
	date = {2019},
	langid = {english},
}

@online{kubinec_algerias_2019,
	title = {Algeria’s uprising: A survey of protesters and the military},
	url = {https://www.brookings.edu/research/algerias-uprising-a-survey-of-protesters-and-the-military/},
	shorttitle = {Algeria’s uprising},
	abstract = {The majority of Algerians in a new survey support the protest movement and want a complete change of the political system, researchers find.},
	titleaddon = {Brookings},
	author = {Kubinec, M. Tahir Kilavuz, \{and\} Robert, Sharan Grewal},
	urldate = {2021-02-22},
	date = {2019-07-15},
	langid = {american},
}

@software{noauthor_boulderdshuman-centered-machine-learning_2021,
	title = {{BoulderDS}/human-centered-machine-learning},
	url = {https://github.com/BoulderDS/human-centered-machine-learning},
	abstract = {Contribute to {BoulderDS}/human-centered-machine-learning development by creating an account on {GitHub}.},
	publisher = {Data Science @ University of Colorado Boulder},
	urldate = {2021-02-11},
	date = {2021-02-11},
	note = {original-date: 2020-01-06T22:10:34Z},
}

@article{hensen_remote_2021,
	title = {Remote data collection for public health research in a {COVID}-19 era: ethical implications, challenges and opportunities},
	issn = {0268-1080},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/heapol/czaa158},
	doi = {10.1093/heapol/czaa158},
	shorttitle = {Remote data collection for public health research in a {COVID}-19 era},
	issue = {czaa158},
	journaltitle = {Health Policy and Planning},
	shortjournal = {Health Policy and Planning},
	author = {Hensen, B and Mackworth-Young, C R S and Simwinga, M and Abdelmagid, N and Banda, J and Mavodza, C and Doyle, A M and Bonell, C and Weiss, H A},
	urldate = {2021-02-11},
	date = {2021-02-07},
}

@online{noauthor_understanding_nodate,
	title = {Understanding Egyptian Military Expenditure {\textbar} {SIPRI}},
	url = {https://www.sipri.org/publications/2020/sipri-background-papers/understanding-egyptian-military-expenditure},
	urldate = {2021-02-11},
}

@article{choi_political_2021,
	title = {Political Connections, Allocation of Stimulus Spending, and the Jobs Multiplier},
	url = {https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/political-connections-allocation-of-stimulus-spending-and-the-jobs-multiplier.htm},
	abstract = {The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington {DC}.},
	author = {Choi, Joonkyu and Penciakova, Veronika and Saffie, Felipe},
	urldate = {2021-02-10},
	date = {2021-01-29},
	langid = {english},
}

@article{kinney_sharing_2021-1,
	title = {Sharing Saddles: Oligarchs and Officers on Horseback in Egypt and Tunisia},
	issn = {0020-8833},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqaa093},
	doi = {10.1093/isq/sqaa093},
	shorttitle = {Sharing Saddles},
	abstract = {Research on the military's removal from politics overemphasizes the attitudes and interests of officers. Civilians are portrayed as incapable of confronting refractory men with guns. This essay compares regime transitions in Egypt (2011–2013) and Tunisia (2011–2014) to show that unified civilian elites strengthen and polarized elites undermine civilian control of the armed forces. Research for the cases is based on interviews with Egyptian and Tunisian businesspersons, party members, and civil society activists; the International Consortium of Investigation Journalists's tax-offshoring database; loan disbursements from the {IMF} and World Bank; and secondary sources in Arabic, French, and English. The cases reveal novel insights about the military's removal from politics in fledgling democracies. Pleasing Egypt's officers did not shield President Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood from a coup in July 2013 because Morsi and the Brotherhood threatened the wealth and power of civilian politicians and oligarchs. In Tunisia, Islamist and non-Islamist political and economic elites pushed democratization for fear of another Ben “Ali-style kleptocracy. Even during crisis in 2013, united civilian elites contained opposition calls for army intervention. The study's findings suggest that democratizers are not at the mercy of soldiers, but rather civilian leaders have the power to sideline their armies.},
	issue = {sqaa093},
	journaltitle = {International Studies Quarterly},
	shortjournal = {International Studies Quarterly},
	author = {Kinney, Drew Holland},
	urldate = {2021-02-06},
	date = {2021-01-27},
}

@article{garro_political_2020,
	title = {Political Consequences of Economic Hardship: State Economic Activity and Polarization in American Legislatures},
	issn = {8756-6222},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/jleo/ewaa023},
	doi = {10.1093/jleo/ewaa023},
	shorttitle = {Political Consequences of Economic Hardship},
	abstract = {Previous literature has explored the effects of economic conditions on voting behavior. In this article, I analyze how the economy affects legislative polarization. Using recently available state legislator ideal point estimates, I find a strong negative relationship between state economic activity and political polarization. States that fared worse economically have experienced greater increases in legislative polarization. I show this relationship is causal by employing an instrumental variables strategy. The instrument isolates exogenous variation in state economic activity by exploiting time-series variation in oil prices, which differentially affects individual states according to their economic dependence on oil production. The estimated polarization effects are stronger for Republicans. The findings have implications for understanding the interaction between the economy and political outcomes. ({JEL} H7, H83).},
	issue = {ewaa023},
	journaltitle = {The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization},
	shortjournal = {The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization},
	author = {Garro, Haritz},
	urldate = {2021-01-30},
	date = {2020-12-23},
	keywords = {ideal points},
}

@report{dave_when_2020,
	title = {When Do Shelter-in-Place Orders Fight {COVID}-19 Best? Policy Heterogeneity Across States and Adoption Time},
	url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w27091},
	shorttitle = {When Do Shelter-in-Place Orders Fight {COVID}-19 Best?},
	abstract = {Founded in 1920, the {NBER} is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.},
	number = {w27091},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Dave, Dhaval M. and Friedson, Andrew I. and Matsuzawa, Kyutaro and Sabia, Joseph J.},
	urldate = {2021-01-29},
	date = {2020-05-04},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.3386/w27091},
}

@report{allcott_what_2020,
	title = {What Explains Temporal and Geographic Variation in the Early {US} Coronavirus Pandemic?},
	url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w27965},
	abstract = {Founded in 1920, the {NBER} is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.},
	number = {w27965},
	institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
	author = {Allcott, Hunt and Boxell, Levi and Conway, Jacob C. and Ferguson, Billy A. and Gentzkow, Matthew and Goldman, Benny},
	urldate = {2021-01-29},
	date = {2020-10-19},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.3386/w27965},
}

@article{peng_multi-facet_2019,
	title = {A multi-facet item response theory approach to improve customer satisfaction using online product ratings},
	volume = {47},
	issn = {1552-7824},
	url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11747-019-00662-w},
	doi = {10.1007/s11747-019-00662-w},
	abstract = {While online platforms often provide a single composite rating and the ratings of different attributes of a product, they largely ignore the attribute characteristics and customer criticality, which limits managerial action. We propose a multi-facet item response theory ({MFIRT}) approach to simultaneously examine the effects of product attributes, reviewer criticality, consumption situation, product type, and time in assessing latent customer satisfaction. Analyses of hotel ratings from {TripAdvisor} and beer ratings from {BeerAdvocate} suggest that product attributes differ with respect to their discriminating and threshold characteristics and that reviewer segments emphasize different attributes when rating various products over time. The {MFIRT} approach predicts product performance more accurately than alternative methods and provides novel insights to inform marketing strategies. The {MFIRT} framework can fundamentally advance how we analyze customer satisfaction and other consumer attitudes and improve marketing research and practice.},
	pages = {960--976},
	number = {5},
	journaltitle = {Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science},
	shortjournal = {J. of the Acad. Mark. Sci.},
	author = {Peng, Ling and Cui, Geng and Chung, Yuho and Li, Chunyu},
	urldate = {2020-12-31},
	date = {2019-09-01},
	langid = {english},
}

@online{noauthor_matt_nodate,
	title = {matt buehler / Twitter},
	url = {https://twitter.com/messages/4149978441-974039638309355520},
	titleaddon = {Twitter},
	urldate = {2020-12-23},
	langid = {english},
}

@book{lindblom_charles_edward_politics_1977,
	title = {Politics and Markets: The World's Political-economic Systems},
	publisher = {Basic Books},
	author = {Lindblom, Charles Edward},
	date = {1977},
}

@article{adams-prassl_inequality_2020,
	title = {Inequality in the impact of the coronavirus shock: Evidence from real time surveys},
	volume = {189},
	issn = {0047-2727},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272720301092},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104245},
	shorttitle = {Inequality in the impact of the coronavirus shock},
	abstract = {We present real time survey evidence from the {UK}, {US} and Germany showing that the immediate labor market impacts of Covid-19 differ considerably across countries. Employees in Germany, which has a well-established short-time work scheme, are substantially less likely to be affected by the crisis. Within countries, the impacts are highly unequal and exacerbate existing inequalities. Workers in alternative work arrangements and who can only do a small share of tasks from home are more likely to have lost their jobs and suffered falls in earnings. Women and less educated workers are more affected by the crisis.},
	pages = {104245},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Public Economics},
	shortjournal = {Journal of Public Economics},
	author = {Adams-Prassl, Abi and Boneva, Teodora and Golin, Marta and Rauh, Christopher},
	urldate = {2020-11-11},
	date = {2020-09-01},
	langid = {english},
	keywords = {Coronavirus, Covid-19, Furlough, Gender gap, Inequality, Job loss, Labor market, Recessions, Short-time work, Working from home},
}

@report{gallego_corruption_2020,
	location = {Rochester, {NY}},
	title = {Corruption in the Times of Pandemia},
	url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=3600572},
	abstract = {The public health crisis caused by the {COVID}-19 pandemic, coupled with the subsequent economic emergency and social turmoil, has pushed governments to substantially and swiftly increase spending. Because of the pressing nature of the crisis, public procurement rules and procedures have been relaxed in many places in order to expedite transactions. However, this may also create opportunities for corruption. Using contract-level information on public spending from Colombia’s e-procurement platform, and a difference-in-differences identification strategy, we find that municipalities classified by a machine learning algorithm as traditionally more prone to corruption react to the pandemic-led spending surge by using a larger proportion of discretionary non-competitive contracts and increasing their average value. This is especially so in the case of contracts to procure crisis-related goods and services. Additionally, in places that rank higher on our corruption scale, contracts signed during the emergency are more likely to have cost overruns, be awarded to campaign donors, and exhibit implementation inefficiencies. Our evidence suggests that easing procurement rules in response to large negative shocks may increase corruption, and thus governments that encourage spending should also bolster instances of monitoring and oversight.},
	number = {{ID} 3600572},
	institution = {Social Science Research Network},
	type = {{SSRN} Scholarly Paper},
	author = {Gallego, Jorge A. and Prem, Mounu and Vargas, Juan F.},
	urldate = {2020-11-11},
	date = {2020-07-25},
	langid = {english},
	doi = {10.2139/ssrn.3600572},
	keywords = {{COVID}-19, Corruption, Machine learning, Public procurement},
}

@book{kang_crony_2002,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {Crony Capitalism: Corruption and Development in South Korea and the Philippines},
	isbn = {978-0-521-80817-0},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/crony-capitalism/CA0963DEB09F9EBE61068CC32D97217C},
	series = {Cambridge Studies in Comparative Politics},
	shorttitle = {Crony Capitalism},
	abstract = {Why has the literature on Asian development not addressed the issue of money politics in Korea? How can we reconcile the view of an efficient developmental state in Korea before 1997 with reports of massive corruption and inefficiency in that same country in 1998 and 1999? Politics is central to the answer. In this book the author makes two arguments. First, both Korea and the Philippines experienced significant corruption throughout the post-independence era. Second, political - not economic - considerations dominated policy making in both countries. Focusing on the exchange of favors for bribes between state and business, the author argues that politics drove policy choices, that bureaucrats were not autonomous from political interference in setting policy, and that business and political elites wrestled with each other over who would reap the rents to be had. Even in Korea, corruption was far greater than the conventional wisdom allows.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Kang, David C.},
	urldate = {2020-11-05},
	date = {2002},
	doi = {10.1017/CBO9780511606175},
	keywords = {corruption, political connections},
}

@book{johnston_syndromes_2005,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {Syndromes of Corruption: Wealth, Power, and Democracy},
	isbn = {978-0-521-85334-7},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/syndromes-of-corruption/2A206839092C0BA8681A2D2EA5AF986D},
	shorttitle = {Syndromes of Corruption},
	abstract = {Corruption is a threat to democracy and economic development in many societies. It arises in the ways people pursue, use and exchange wealth and power, and in the strength or weakness of the state, political and social institutions that sustain and restrain those processes. Differences in these factors, Michael Johnston argues, give rise to four major syndromes of corruption: Influence Markets, Elite Cartels, Oligarchs and Clans, and Official Moguls. In this 2005 book, Johnston uses statistical measures to identify societies in each group, and case studies to show that the expected syndromes do arise. Countries studied include the United States, Japan and Germany (Influence Markets); Italy, Korea and Botswana (Elite Cartels); Russia, the Philippines and Mexico (Oligarchs and Clans); and China, Kenya, and Indonesia (Offical Moguls). A concluding chapter explores reform, emphasising the ways familiar measures should be applied - or withheld, lest they do harm - with an emphasis upon the value of 'deep democratisation'.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Johnston, Michael},
	urldate = {2020-11-05},
	date = {2005},
	doi = {10.1017/CBO9780511490965},
	keywords = {corruption, democracy, political connections},
}

@book{hale_patronal_2014,
	location = {Cambridge},
	title = {Patronal Politics: Eurasian Regime Dynamics in Comparative Perspective},
	isbn = {978-1-107-07351-7},
	url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/patronal-politics/4C1B4D49A7F17739E75A5AB7B66E2115},
	series = {Problems of International Politics},
	shorttitle = {Patronal Politics},
	abstract = {This book proposes a new way of understanding events throughout the world that are usually interpreted as democratization, rising authoritarianism, or revolution. Where the rule of law is weak and corruption pervasive, what may appear to be democratic or authoritarian breakthroughs are often just regular, predictable phases in longer-term cyclic dynamics - patronal politics. This is shown through in-depth narratives of the post-1991 political history of all post-Soviet polities that are not in the European Union. This book also includes chapters on czarist and Soviet history and on global patterns.},
	publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
	author = {Hale, Henry E.},
	urldate = {2020-11-05},
	date = {2014},
	doi = {10.1017/CBO9781139683524},
	keywords = {corruption, democratic transitions, patronage, political connections},
}

@article{autio_economic_2015,
	title = {Economic and political institutions and entry into formal and informal entrepreneurship},
	volume = {32},
	issn = {0217-4561, 1572-9958},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10490-014-9381-0},
	doi = {10.1007/s10490-014-9381-0},
	pages = {67--94},
	number = {1},
	journaltitle = {Asia Pacific Journal of Management},
	shortjournal = {Asia Pac J Manag},
	author = {Autio, Erkko and Fu, Kun},
	urldate = {2020-11-04},
	date = {2015-03},
	langid = {english},
}
